This Olde Towne has got me in the Porcello house

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

ehem...
Yeah.  Porcello's been pretty middle of the road so far, but today his line looks downright horrendous:  5 IP, 105 pitches, 12 hits, 3 BB's and 8 runs allowed, all earned.   Line on the season so far isn't too hot now:1.46 WHIP and a 6.63 ERA.  Again, I never am able to watch these games so what's up?  Is the GB/FB not what we're expecting/hoping?  He was 50/50 on the day, while his counterpart was 12/2.  And is the IF defense looking crappy?  Is this just more bad luck on BIP and will that normalize with more of a sample size?    

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

One terrible start in your first three will make your ERA look awful. It's early and he's had one bad start. I don't see a reason to be worried. He's had awful luck with his FB/HR ratio so far this year, so that's going to stabilize at some point. It was 23.1% going into today and was 28.6% in this afternoon's game. That's insane. His xFIP coming into today was 3.49 and that's about what I'm expecting from him over the course of the season. A guy who can do that while chewing up 200 innings is a valuable piece of the rotation.
 
If he actually takes a step forward as a pitcher, and is a bit better than that, he'll be exactly what they hope they are getting with that shiny new extension.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

The strike zone was pretty small today. Neither pitcher could get away with anything inside to righties. Strikes weren't consistently being called at the bottom of the zone. Porcello lost his grip on the curveball several times. Bottom line - both starters ended up throwing too many pitches.
 
Adam Jones is a hitting god right now. Loading the bases in front of him gave Porcello nowhere to go and he paid the price.
 
Flaherty is treating Fenway as if he's Manny Ramirez. Baltimore is a damn good team in all aspects of the game.
 
Some poor defensive plays by the Sox today, but not an excuse for the way Porcello pitched.
 
We need to wait until these guys get into a routine and the weather warms up.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

I wonder if JF rode him too hard last time out for this early in the season.  112 pitches is a lot of Porcello.  It's the fifth most he's every thrown, and the second most he had thrown in three years.  It looks to me as though the Tigers were very careful to pull him around the 100 pitch mark for his career -- sometimes maybe he finishes the batter on the 100th pitch and occasionally he throws to the end of the inning.  The way the Tigers used him, I doubt he would have come out for the sixth today.  The pitch logs are so consistent keeping him right around 100 exactly, you have to wonder if the Tigers knew something -- although he was a bit more of a workhorse last year than previously in his career.  I think once he gets to 85, you have to just suck it up and have him on a very very short leash if you want him to continue to be a consistent 27 to 31 start guy.  
 
Even without the sixth inning today, his start wasn't good, but that sixth inning is what makes it awful.

 

[Al Zarilla]

One terrible start in your first three will make your ERA look awful. It's early and he's had one bad start. I don't see a reason to be worried. He's had awful luck with his FB/HR ratio so far this year, so that's going to stabilize at some point. It was 23.1% going into today and was 28.6% in this afternoon's game. That's insane. His xFIP coming into today was 3.49 and that's about what I'm expecting from him over the course of the season. A guy who can do that while chewing up 200 innings is a valuable piece of the rotation.
 
If he actually takes a step forward as a pitcher, and is a bit better than that, he'll be exactly what they hope they are getting with that shiny new extension.

How is that luck though? Getting a ground ball vs. a fly ball is a function of the pitch and its location, which are both kind of up to the pitcher. 
 
Edit, better slow down here, trying to watch the Celtics game and keep up with the other threads. Quick read thought you were saying GB/FB ratio. Still, who else can you blame when a ball sails out of the park? Gopher balls are gopher balls.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

How is that luck though? Getting a ground ball vs. a fly ball is a function of the pitch and its location, which are both kind of up to the pitcher. 

 
Because a HR/FB rate of 23% (never mind 28%) is incredibly high and if it's not going to stabilize, then Porcello will wash out of the majors long before they pay him for his extension. The highest HR/FB% among qualified starters in 2014 was 16.3%. Porcello's career high is 14.5%. There is simply no way he finishes the season with a rate anywhere near what he's seen to this point in the season. There's a pretty good chance he'll cut it in half, going forward, actually.
 
HR/FB rates can be very fluky in small samples. What we're seeing right now just isn't predictive.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Ah..... poor cello.....
Just got home to see FINALLY something to build on and to (hopefully) expect out of our "future ace".
 
2 hits and 2 BB's allowed in 7 innings?  6 K's?  1 earned run!   .... What???  Great outing!  Need more of these.  The 7 innings almost being the most important stat right there though, eh?
 
But... what's with the GB/FB?  6/9?  Seems off for a supposed ground ball pitcher.  And almost across the board, all our GB pitchers FB percentages are higher than career norms!  Are they bloops (damn you BABIP!  Damn you straight to helllll!!!!) or are our GB pitchers not getting the GB/FB ratio that would help them succeed more.  Without looking, that ratio for Porcello makes me think this is one of those BABIP wins.  She taketh and she giveth.  Bad GB/FB ratio... not enough K's to make sense on 7 IP's with only 1 run.  I'll take it, but IIIIIIIIIIIII don't like it.
 
drunken posting

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Maybe the thread title was too insanely hysterical... laugh riot of the century sort of stuff?  Anyhow... this is the Rick Porcello thread.  He's a starting pitcher for the Boston Red Sox.
He's looked really good his last two times out, right.  Sort of.
 
He's still giving up quite a few hits, but not walking any and getting quite a few more K's than I expected.  But his GB/FB ratio seems like it should be skewing more towards the GB side and it's really not.  Either way- results are good.  I still think Kelly will end up being the better pitcher of the two, but Porcello reminds me of the good Derek Lowe SP era