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The variables of "Who do you want to play in the playoffs"

Discussion in 'Blinded by the Lombardis: Patriots Forum' started by BigSoxFan, Dec 26, 2018.

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Who do you want to play?

  1. TN

    25 vote(s)
    41.0%
  2. KC

    1 vote(s)
    1.6%
  3. LAC

    1 vote(s)
    1.6%
  4. Houston

    13 vote(s)
    21.3%
  5. Baltimore

    2 vote(s)
    3.3%
  6. Pitt

    4 vote(s)
    6.6%
  7. Indy

    15 vote(s)
    24.6%
  1. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    30,252
    Sure it's just a reference to the playoff games, which have been major struggles every single time:

    2009: 33-14 Ravens
    2011: 23-20 Patriots (and needed Sterling Moore miracle to avoid L)
    2012: 28-13 Ravens
    2014: 35-31 Patriots (needed to come back from double digit deficit twice)

    Obviously, every team is different and the key difference is that it likely would be Lamar Jackson and not Flacco but the Ravens always seem to play the Pats tough in Gillette.
     
  2. Old Fart Tree

    Old Fart Tree the maven of meat Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    7,609
    The 2014 ravens have literally nothing to do with the 2018 ravens.
     
  3. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    They literally have the same coach and same attacking defense that generally gives the Patriots fits. I don't like using past results to predict future games but there has to be some reason why the Pats generally do much better at home against teams like the Texans and Colts. I can understand why some fans would prefer to avoid Baltimore but, again, that was with Flacco. I have far less concern going up against Lamar Jackson.
     
  4. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

    Messages:
    20,266
    Board ate my post but 2014 barely had to do with 2012 - Ray Lewis and Ed Reed were gone - and yet that game was still scary as shit. It's not all that different than the Pats sucking in Miami or Denver. Sure the teams from four years ago don't matter at all, and yet, the Pats still magically suck in those venues. Plus what BSF said.
     
  5. snowmanny

    snowmanny Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

    Messages:
    9,955
    Yeah that 2014 playoff game felt like two blowout losses and three come from behind wins in the course of three and a half hours. Good God watching that was an unhealthy experience.
     
  6. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    4,403
    I don't think it's just these things - though I think you're right about both. There is some institutional memory that exists within organizations, I think. The young Ravens will somehow feed off past seasons' successes against the Patriots in Foxboro. They (the young Ravens who had nothing to do with any of those games listed) will still somehow feel like *they* were a part of it, that their organization gives the Patriots' organization fits, and that will give them some additional confidence going in.

    Doesn't mean they'll win of course, but I do think it will add some swagger.
     
  7. SMU_Sox

    SMU_Sox loves his fluffykins SoSH Member

    Messages:
    6,118
    I’d rather face Flacco than Lamar. Mobile running QBs like that have been a problem for the Pats historically. Hate the matchup against the Ravens.
     
  8. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    30,252
    Interesting because I find myself on the other side of the fence. Give me the rookie runner who can't throw over the guy who has had several successful playoff runs. I think a guy like Lamar kind of plays into our hands. We suck at creating pressure but against him, you just play your lanes and make him throw. And if you get up on him, good night. He ain't leading a comeback.
     
  9. Super Nomario

    Super Nomario Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    11,782
    The Patriots have put up 30+ the last three times they've played Baltimore. But the Ravens changed DCs in the offseason so I'm skeptical how much any of the historical stuff matters. The two teams haven't even played since the 2016 season.
     
  10. SMU_Sox

    SMU_Sox loves his fluffykins SoSH Member

    Messages:
    6,118
    It’s also on Flacco... look I don’t think much of him as a passer anymore. He was never elite but he had some good stretches pre 2015 or 2016. He was always inconsistent. The standard deviation (and I ran this in 2014 I think) for his QB rating per game was one of the highest in the league. This year he was captain dink and dunk. Lamar might not be there as a passer yet but he can kill teams with his legs. He’s fast. Fastest QB I have seen in recent memory. He didn’t run a 40 but rumor was he was in the 4.3’s or 4.4’s and I believe it. Patriots aren’t exactly rangy or fast in their front 7. Granted though they did contain Josh Allen.

    Ravens have the 4th best run defense 3.8 yards per attempt against.

    Look, am I going to shit bricks thinking about facing them? No. Do I particularly like the matchup? No. Play well at home and they win. Getting an early lead would be nice because, like you said, Lamar probably can’t make the throws to come back at this point in his career. Still makes me sad he had to land on the damn Ravens.

    Edit Flacco Y/A is 6.5. That puts him in the bottom 3 of starters in the NFL. Jackson is at 7.0 which is between 25-28. Neither are great passers.
     
  11. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    30,252
    Lamar is fast as hell but he isn't a competent thrower at this point of his career. Won't be easy to run 15+ times getting slammed into the cold Foxboro turf in January. Sure he'll make some plays but he'll pay the price for them. I just don't see how he would put up the 24+ points needed to beat the Pats in Foxboro. They would need some ST and turnover luck.
     
  12. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    4,403
    The problem with facing elite athletic QBs is this. They really don't want to be running constantly all year long because the pounding really adds up. But in a one-game, winner-take-all situation, they aren't thinking about the season-long pounding. They're trying to make their best plays NOW. So they're going to leave it all out there. Makes them more dangerous.
     
  13. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    32,245
    Who are these mobile QBs that have beaten the Brady/BB teams in the postseason?

    And who are the QBs that have beaten them?
     
  14. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    20,266
    Duh, Flacco and Sanchize are the mobile QBs. Clearly the Pats couldn't handle Mariota or Russell Wilson.
     
  15. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    30,252
    Kordell Stewart did come within a TD back in Jan 2002. That has to count for something.
     
  16. dcmissle

    dcmissle Deflatigator Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    26,565
    Your penultimate paragraph is where I’m at. Do I like the matchup from the Pats’ standpoint? Not really. Am I going to obsess over it? No. There are other teams in the AFC that could give us plenty of trouble based on how the Pats have played, particularly on the road. It’s not like, keep us from this one bad opponent and we’re home free.
     
  17. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    20,266
    The bad opponent in this case is called "the road".
     
  18. Papelbon's Poutine

    Papelbon's Poutine Homeland Security SoSH Member

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    17,371
    Disagree. The Pats have sucked in Miami and Denver because of heat and elevation, respectively.

    Sure, make arguments about Harbaugh scheming well against them, but being afraid of laundry (in any sport) is silly.
     
  19. snowmanny

    snowmanny Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

    Messages:
    9,955
    But would the Colts raise a banner?
     
  20. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    58,005
    yes

    PATRIOTS
    LOSE EAST
    TITLE ON
    TECHICALITY
     
  21. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

    Messages:
    20,266
    Why have they sometimes been able to overcome the heat and elevation? I don’t buy the climate element. Climate had zero to do with week 14.
     
  22. Papelbon's Poutine

    Papelbon's Poutine Homeland Security SoSH Member

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    17,371
    Oh I agree, they just spit the bit this year in Miami on a boneheaded finish. But as you said, they’ve sucked on the road all season. They haven’t had trouble with Miami or Denver at home, to my recollection, but I could be corrected on that.

    As someone noted, they have a good overall record against Baltimore with a couple untimely losses or missed FGs/pass break ups saving them. I’m perfectly willing to concede that Harbaugh schemes well against them - as Reid does - but I’m sorry I don’t believe in ‘that team always...’ type stuff. It’s coincidence and being out coached in a particular game.

    I’d rather not play the Ravens because of their defense, I don’t think we have a front seven to handle Jackson and Harbaugh; but I’m not looking at any historical trend against the Baltimore franchise. It’s like when people whine about ‘the Twins always bow down to the Yankees’ or ‘the Blue Jays always screw us!’ There has to be some common factor behind

    There’s so much turnover on a roster, especially in the NFL, I’ve no idea how one can be spooked by a logo.
     
  23. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

    Messages:
    20,266
    But the Twins always do - their winning percentage is like under 30% vs the MFY over the past 20 years. Like sub expansion team performance. Every player on the roster has turned over during that time. Some things can’t be explained. Like the Miami and Denver venues. The Denver altitude caused the Pats blowing a 21-7 4th quarter lead? Shit just goes wrong in those venues. Just like the Ravens usually step up for the Pats.
     
  24. Papelbon's Poutine

    Papelbon's Poutine Homeland Security SoSH Member

    Messages:
    17,371
    Yes, it’s explained by coincidence or other factors. I don’t have the time or energy to research but I’m sure you could find one team in any sport that has trouble with one particular franchise. Through multiple player and coaching and front office changes. It’s not about the logo on their jersey.

    In the current convo, I find it hard to believe that the Dolphins and Broncos - who’ve had multiple regime changes over the years - somehow cause BB to throw his hands up and say ‘Jesus we can’t beat these guys on the road!’ I understand that’s hyperbole, but I’m sure you get my point. The Ravens, I think Harbaugh is a very good coach and schemes well against us. The Dolphins and Broncos, yes, I think location makes a difference. I don’t for a second think anyone on staff or team is spooked by the specter of going there other than temp or elevation. Maybe I’m giving them too much credit and reasonable minds can differ, but it just seems silly to me. I’d need a lot of convincing to buy into some kind of ‘demons’ for one franchise against another.
     
  25. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

    Messages:
    20,266
    I agree it is somewhat coincidence and other factors... but it kind of keeps happening, so it is weird.

    Edit: Brady has literally never lost at home to Miami when trying to win. And yet in the 17 times they have played in Miami he is 7-10. It’s obviously not the uniform but it doesn’t make much sense. Like he dominates Buffalo and the Jets too but venue doesn’t matter. Miami isn’t significantly better than either over Brady’s career and they don’t have some huge home field advantage against other teams. Just the Pats.
     
    #25 tims4wins, Dec 26, 2018
    Last edited: Dec 26, 2018
  26. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

    Messages:
    4,403
    I didn’t say there are mobile QBs that have beaten the Pats in the playoffs.
     
  27. dcmissle

    dcmissle Deflatigator Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    26,565
    The weather excuse @Miami is nonsense, especially when those games occur late season.

    1. The temperature for that recent game approximated that for an average September game in Fox.

    2. As of a year ago, the Pats had the second most SEC players on its roster, 21. Tampa led the NFL with 23.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.saturdaydownsouth.com/sec-football/nfl-teams-sec-players/amp/

    3. Our team has been relentlessly ballwashed for conditioning, and justifiably so. Remember Bill having them running “the hill?” Tons of pub after the last SB win.

    And it wasn’t just the last play. Dolphins gashed our defense all day long.
     
  28. Super Nomario

    Super Nomario Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    11,782
    I would not argue the temperature had an effect on the most recent embarrassing loss at Miami. The defense played their least amount of snaps that game, because they were so incredibly bad that the Dolphins scored on them without getting to third or sometimes even second down.

    There is some reason to believe it may have affected other losses, however:

    https://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports...yde-hard-rock-stadium-sun-20181018-story.html

    Basically, the Dolphins designed their stadium so the visitors (in darker-colored uniforms, too) sit in the sun while the home team sits in the shade - it's not the same 85 degrees (or whatever) for both teams.

    It's hard to point to individual games (though the 2014 Week 1 loss where they led at halftime and lost the second half 23-0 on a 89-degree day comes to mind) but it probably creeps in here and there. Maybe without this, they would be 10-7 in Miami instead of 7-10 and the 2018 loss would just be a "shit happens" game instead of "add it to the pile of misery in Miami!" game.
     
  29. Papelbon's Poutine

    Papelbon's Poutine Homeland Security SoSH Member

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    17,371
    So it must be an aversion to orange to explain them and the Broncos..?

    Point 1 is fine and good but it’s not September - the point is the change from what you’re acclimated to, to what you play in.
    Point 2 makes no sense for same reason. No one is purporting that our players can’t play in heat. It’s going from 35 to 85. Much like we (or the Packers) cite a home field advantage when it snows or is cold for a southern team coming in.
    Point 3 conditioning is great. Doesn’t have anything to do with temperature swings.

    You’re in DC, think about what it’s like in the summer versus the winter. Now think about playing 90 snaps in that change. This years loss was an abomination that I wouldn’t attribute to it, but if you’re looking for a pattern, yeah, I think that’s where you find it.
     
  30. dcmissle

    dcmissle Deflatigator Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    26,565
    Some teams just have unusual difficulty against others is all.

    Barnwell studied home field advantage in the NFL last year, following up on earlier work. He crunched numbers going back 10 years, beginning with the 2007 season. He concluded that Miami ranks dead last in the NFL for home field advantage.

    http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...fl-2017-toughest-easiest-teams-play-road-more
     
  31. jaytftwofive

    jaytftwofive lurker

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    337
    Yes that is what I meant.
     
  32. jaytftwofive

    jaytftwofive lurker

    Messages:
    337
    You know what I meant.
     
  33. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    32,245
    Assuming the Pats take care of business, the BEST outcome, assuming KC and/or SD take the #1 seed is Houston somehow losing to a Jags team playing in their 3rd Super Bowl of the year, then Tennessee beating Indy, setting up the chance that we get rematch with Titans at home.

    Assuming Houston takes care of business we're likely getting Baltimore or LAC. Still not sure which way I'm leaning. Probably want Baltimore, but man, that would not be a fun week leading up to it.
     
  34. shawnrbu

    shawnrbu Member SoSH Member

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    22,794
    In your scenario it would be Ravens (3) vs Texans (6) and Titans (4) vs Chargers (5). Probably getting the Ravens in such a scenario. I would prefer to see an AFC South team.
     
  35. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    20,266
    Wait what? If Houston takes care of business they are the 3 hosting the 6 Indy/Ten winner. Which means if they take care of business the LAC/BAL winner goes to KC in the divisional and we get the Texans (probably the best most likely outcome scenario).

    Nightmare scenario is the 6th seeded Colts or Titans go into Houston and win and then go to KC and get creamed while the Pats get the BAL/LAC winner.

    Edit and yes I know KC lost to the Titans at home last year in the playoffs but lighting isn’t going to strike twice.

    Pats best path to Atlanta is the BAL/LAC winner going into KC and winning thus putting the Pats at home for the AFCCG
     
  36. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    32,245
    I mixed my scenarios, but this is what I want:

    1. HOU loses week 17, TEN wins in week 17 (TEN is a weak #4 seed, HOU a strong #6)
    2. HOU beats BAL in WC round as #6, meaning they go to KC
    3. TEN beats LAC at home, bringing them, as #4 seed to NE

    I'm not talking MOST realistic here, just my hope, assuming we don't luck into #1 seed.



    Yeah, probably. I was saying what I was hoping for.
     
    #36 DrewDawg, Dec 27, 2018
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2018
  37. Ale Xander

    Ale Xander Member SoSH Member

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    19,780
    I just want TB12, JE11, and RG87 to be their old selves, and the OL to play well. If that happens, we can overcome anyone and anything.
     
  38. SirPsychoSquints

    SirPsychoSquints Member SoSH Member

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    3,909
    I'm with the others - I want BAL the #4 seed and hosting LAC (or KC, whatever). This requires a HOU win or a BAL loss.
     
  39. snowmanny

    snowmanny Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    9,955
    He might have but I wasn't sure.

    If the Pats have the #2 seed I would be pretty confident against Indy or Tennessee (but one of those will be the #6 seed unless Houston also loses), I would be fairly confident against Houston, and then less confident against Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Chargers in that order with the Chargers having not quite but pretty close to a coin flip chance of winning in Foxboro. If KC somehow ends up in Foxboro that would be a true 50-50 game at best for the Patriots.
     
  40. Papelbon's Poutine

    Papelbon's Poutine Homeland Security SoSH Member

    Messages:
    17,371
    Well, what plays part in that is the Dolphins have pretty much sucked the last 10 years. I’m not saying their stadium is equivalent to Seattle’s or GB’s - simply that just like the Pats benefit from a warmer weather team coming to Foxboro in December for a cold or snowy game, a cold weather team is going to suffer from going to Miami in December. Or a team going to altitude. Conditioning be damned there’s only so much you can account for.

    I don’t buy into your first sentence at all. If it’s a team like the Pats or Ravens or a team that has brought in an entire coaching staff, like say the Chiefs and there’s some consistency to account for, then sure. The Dolphins have had 9 head coaches since BB took over. 9. With all the ensuing coordinator changes and player and scheme changes. The Broncos have had 6.

    I’m sorry, I’m not going to be convinced that it’s the name on the uniform they have trouble with. To suggest as much is to say BB has some kind of mental block on certain teams. I may be giving him too much credit but I think he’s better than that.
     
  41. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    58,005
    Yes, and you were wrong
     
  42. dcmissle

    dcmissle Deflatigator Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    26,565
    Well one thing is right — in the last 10 years before this one, I believe the Dolphins have had a winning home record in only three of them. And during those ten years, the Pats have struggled in Miami.

    And where else do you hear this in the 30 other NFL cities, we’re at a pretty big disadvantage when we play at Miami? Do you even hear it from fans in the other cold weather cities, Buffalo and NY?
     
  43. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    20,266
    Seriously what are Buffalo and the Jets record in Miami in the last 10-15 years? Probably similar to the Pats, which given the disparity between the Pats and everyone else is pathetic.

    Edit by my count the Jets are 10-8 in Miami in the TB12/BB era. So yeah.
     
  44. Papelbon's Poutine

    Papelbon's Poutine Homeland Security SoSH Member

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    17,371
    So we're going with "aura and mystique"? Or "house of horrors"?
     
  45. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    20,266
    It sure as hell isn’t “random variance”
     
  46. alydar

    alydar Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    863
    LAC face a tough decision, in that they could treat this as a bye, not really go for it in DEN, and just be ready to head on the road for WC weekend (I dunno how banged up they are, but like most teams at this time in the year, I’m sure a lot of players could use rest). But the flip side, with a KC loss, is likely home field advantage throughout. That’s a really big swing.

    A point that I think sometimes gets overlooked in these discussion is that even though a fan base of a team may have checked out by week 17, that doesn’t means the players have. Each individual is playing for a contract, a roster spot, an incentive, whatever, is this is the last chance for a long time to make that great catch or tackle or hard run or int or whatever. They’re still trying hard, so for a team that is only half-assing it because the playoffs start next week, upsets are very possible.
     
  47. SirPsychoSquints

    SirPsychoSquints Member SoSH Member

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    3,909
    I don't see how you do anything but gun for the win until the KC game is decided (and then, only if KC is way ahead). The difference between a 1 and 5 seed?
     
  48. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    32,245
    Simple enough
     
  49. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

    Messages:
    20,266
    Since the other thread is “poll only” I will explain my vote for Houston here. I am assuming that KC beats Oakland and is therefore the 1 seed. Therefore I want them to have the toughest possible matchup in the divisional so that there is the greatest possible chance of the Pats hosting the AFCCG. I don’t see Indy or Tennessee winning at KC, so I’d prefer a scenario where the 3 seeded Texans hold at home and the 4/5 Chargers/Baltimore winner then goes to KC. While there are other teams I think the Pats have a better chance of beating in the divisional, I am taking the long view of making it to Atlanta.
     
  50. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    4,403
    Tennessee. Easiest option. That gets you to the AFCCG. Assume a difficult game at that point no matter what.
     

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