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The Value of Belichick

Discussion in 'Blinded by the Lombardis: Patriots Forum' started by BigSoxFan, Feb 15, 2019.

  1. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    30,246
    We all know how valuable he is to the organization so the premise of this thread is simple.

    What is the price that you would actually consider trading Belichick to another organization? The compensation can be in the form of players and/or picks and you can use real examples.

    For instance, if KC calls up and says, "hey, you can have Patrick Mahomes for Belichick", do you do it? Let's say Arizona offers the #1 pick and their 2020 #1? Is that enough?

    Or, is there simply no compensation that you'd deem worthwhile to make that trade? Keep emotions out of it (i.e., "I want him to retire as a Patriot" type stuff) and factor in his age and likely coaching window.
     
  2. Saints Rest

    Saints Rest Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    6,937
    I think the Pats would need a minimum of three 1st round picks.
    But I bet many franchises would give up to 5
     
  3. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    Mahomes would make a lot of sense, as Brady will likely play 2-3 more years and Mahomes will be cheap the next 3 years. But the flip side is you wouldn't be playing Mahomes. So I don't think there would be a point in that type of trade.

    I was thinking along the lines of Saints Rest. First rounders for the next 5 or so years.

    I also thought about the idea of trading for a Kyle Shanahan or a McVay or someone of that ilk plus a couple first rounders. But I have confidence that Josh will do well in stint #2.

    So I guess I'd trade him for a pure haul of draft picks. No other players or coaches necessary.
     
  4. BusRaker

    BusRaker lurker

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    449
    Depends on how many years he commits to ... pushing 67 and all. Maybe a 1st rounder for each two years of commitment?
     
  5. DennyDoyle'sBoil

    DennyDoyle'sBoil Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill SoSH Member

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    Six Super Bowls. What is left for a fan to need?

    I don't want to see him on any other team. Another trophy isn't worth seeing him in a Chargers hoodie. As long as he wants to coach, I don't want him on any other team.

    So, there is no price.

    And I don't feel that way about any other player or coach on any other team. I root for the laundry. But, this is different.

    Edit: Except for Papi maybe. I don't think there is any price at which I would have been ok with Papi being a Yankee.
     
  6. Ralphwiggum

    Ralphwiggum Member SoSH Member

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    +1
     
  7. dcmissle

    dcmissle Deflatigator Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    He’s not a commodity.

    His contract with the Patriots is a personal services contract. You cannot trade executives and compel them to work for the new employer. Attempting to do so might be a breach of contract on the Patriots’ part, freeing him immediately to go where he pleases. Or retire.

    The hypothetical is counter factual also in assuming BB would undertake an assignment that would hamstring him in his new position.

    Take over the Chiefs and I have no QB. Or give up multiple first round picks. Yeah, right.
     
  8. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    30,246
    You must be fun at parties.
     
  9. dcmissle

    dcmissle Deflatigator Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Believe me, if Daniel Snyder could, he should, because a legacy NFL franchise is dissolving before our eyes, in all of its aspects — on the field, in the front office and ownership suite, off the field and wrt the new stadium. Fan base cratering.

    But this is precisely why personal services contracts like Belichick’s are not tradeable.
     
  10. Adrian's Dome

    Adrian's Dome Member SoSH Member

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    Which is why it's a freaking hypothetical.

    Back on topic, there's no amount of value that would make it worth it. What good are 1st rounders without a viable infrastructure in place? You may not get another good (let alone god-tier) coach for decades, when you have one, you hold onto them.
     
  11. Jimbodandy

    Jimbodandy Member SoSH Member

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    2,532
    If it were possible to trade him, I'd want five first round picks plus five more NBA-style first round pick swap options. Basically five of your next ten first-round picks are mine and I get to upgrade in the first round the other years. And I decide the week before the draft whether I'm taking or swapping. That would be my price.

    edit: Oh, and Belichick has veto rights to the deal before I make it
     
  12. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    32,240
    Dude, we know. Honestly.
     
  13. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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    He did it once already, albeit it was only a single first-round pick that his new organization was short.

    Though arguably, over time, the eventual compensation was 3 first-rounders and $500k out of his own pocket...
     
  14. dcmissle

    dcmissle Deflatigator Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I posted because there may be people here thinking, “well they traded Jon Gruden (to Tampa) and BB (to NE), so why not? The simple answer is, they wanted to be traded and cooperated in the deal.

    One can only imagine BB’s reaction to Kraft:

    “Let me get this straight — you want to monetize me? You paid X for this franchise, and it’s worth 10X today — and YOU want to monetize ME?”
     
  15. Saints Rest

    Saints Rest Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    6,937
    I don’t think the OP was suggesting this would be an actual plan, but rather a way on a theoretical level, to place a value on BB in terms of players, the way you might say a Franchise tag player is worth two first-round picks.
     
  16. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    Correct. This is a valuation exercise. Nothing more. But I have now learned something about personal service contracts, which is nice.
     
  17. Al Zarilla

    Al Zarilla Member SoSH Member

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    Hey, he is getting older but my answer is still like DDB’s: NOT FOR SALE.

    I also don’t ever want to see Brady in another uniform. I have never thought about abandoning the NFL, like some are talking about when the two Bs are gone. But that might do it.
     
  18. SMU_Sox

    SMU_Sox loves his fluffykins SoSH Member

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    This is one of those topics that is purely a hypothetical. A fun little thought exercise. No need for every post here to be serious. If it were me I'd hang up the phone laughing but let's pretend everything has a price and Bill is looking for a fresh start somewhere warmer maybe as he gets closer to retirement age. I'd start the bidding at 3 first round picks, probably some day 2 picks and maybe some day 3's just to use as trade chips. I'd also maybe want a player in return. How about Larry Fitzgerald?
     
  19. Jimbodandy

    Jimbodandy Member SoSH Member

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    2,532
    Too low, although perhaps that depends on the "player in return".

    I set mine above at five firsts and five optional upgrades of firsts. That's ridiculous, but that's where I am.
     
  20. drbretto

    drbretto guidence counselor SoSH Member

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    That man is priceless. There is literally no package good enough. When Bill Belichick leaves, the train is over. Maybe you get some momentum with all these draft picks and win another one or two, but it'll never be the same again.
     
  21. DourDoerr

    DourDoerr Well-Known Member Lifetime Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Unless I'm getting a great QB in return, I'm not trading him. Absent a generational defense, it's just too hard to reach a Super Bowl without either a great coach or a great QB. Letting go of BB without a great QB is jumping out of a plane without a parachute. I like watching football. I particularly like watching good football. I REALLY like watching my team play good football. As close to a guarantee as there is in the NFL, having BB on the sidelines guarantees that I'm going to be watching my team play good football. I'm not going to mess with that. I saw what Bobby Grier did with picks.
     
  22. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    Teams do win championships with other coaches. I'd demand 5 first rounders and $30 million with which to lure the next good coach. Maybe add in a player that could really help the team right now as well.
     
  23. DourDoerr

    DourDoerr Well-Known Member Lifetime Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    I'll add that I believe BB respects football history and his legacy and he's looking to carry on the tradition that he's worked very hard to build with this Patriots franchise. He found Jimmy G. and - if reports are correct - tried to also get Mayfield. Both players seem to have quite a bit of upside with the caveat that it's way too early to tell.

    I have to believe BB will continue the search for the next franchise QB for the Patriots while he's here and that's too big a plus to let go. I'm not giving up that knowhow, insight and continuity for some picks so General Manager X can find a rookie QB to play under some unknown system.
     
    #23 DourDoerr, Feb 15, 2019
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2019
  24. snowmanny

    snowmanny Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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  25. Oppo

    Oppo Member SoSH Member

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    1,234
    An impact defensive and offensive player both on cheap deals.

    Then BB quits immediately and comes back due to a contract loophole.
     
  26. Saints Rest

    Saints Rest Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Josh McD on the staff is why I opined that 3 firsts would get it done for me. IOW, BB is worth 3 firsts more than Josh.
    But since many other teams would be trying to replace their own dreck, most of whom are markedly worse than Josh, I think if I were the Owner of a team like Cinci or Buffalo or any of a number of other teams, I would be willing to go to 5.
     
  27. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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    I'm having a hard time figuring out why I would name any price at all.

    Draft picks can bust, even first rounders. Great players can get injured, or old, or not fit your scheme. Even franchise QBs aren't forever. The hardest damn thing in this game is getting a mastermind who can manage the cap, navigate player moves, manage the scheme, motivate the team, pick and delegate to a staff... it's a job that overwhelms workaholics, and burns out lifers like Kubiak. I think it's the most irreplaceable asset a team can have. Belichick never gets injured, takes No Days Off, and hasn't gone senile yet. Players come and go, coaches come and go, and the party goes on.

    What good would first rounders be without someone to choose wisely with them, and weaponize what you get? There are so many teams out there, loaded with alleged talent, who crumble at the key moments because they're missing the right keys or focus or discipline, or which enter salary cap hell to keep the band together when they should have had the fortitude to cut bait. So we can take a bunch of first rounders, and assemble a more talented roster. Big whoop. The more talented roster got curb-stombed by the smarter coaching staff two weeks ago.

    When that call comes in, I think I do what Belichick did when John Lynch, upon being informed that Garoppolo wasn't available, asked instead if Brady were available: I laugh and hang up the phone.
     
  28. JMDurron

    JMDurron Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    A more interesting question might be “how many teams could you possibly trade Belichick to where he would not immediately retire after the trade?”

    After his Cleveland experience and near miss of the Jets’ ownership inevitably screwing up whatever plans he tired to implement there, I’d imagine that Belichick only would consider a select few ownership situations to be worth coaching for at his age. I’d love to know which ones he would actually consider if such a situation were to somehow occur.
     
  29. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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    6,713
    Giants, I guess. But it's not a long list.

    If he did retire right after the trade, the team would scream bloody murder and the commissioner would void the deal, so I'm not sure that's a fair consideration even in this hypothetical.
     
  30. JMDurron

    JMDurron Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    Right, obviously that would blow up the trade. It’s not really meant as a fair addition to the hypothetical, more like a separate hypothetical sparked by this one.
     
  31. Red Averages

    Red Averages owes you $50 SoSH Member

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    I probably wouldn’t trade Steve and Brian Belichick for 2 first rounders given they are likely to keep Bill in town for a few extra years. (Btw - what an absolute shocker that trade would be from Bill)

    Think of how many first rounders this team has lost in this era: ‘00, ‘09, ‘13, ‘16, ‘17. In addition to picking in the second half of the draft every year.
     
  32. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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    6,713
    Bill Belichick trading his own sons for a few first rounders would be the most Belichickian move ever. I frankly don't know how it hasn't happened yet - maybe he's just waiting for their asset value to peak.
     
  33. Bergs

    Bergs Member SoSH Member

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    12,169
    "Second half" undersells the shit out of it. More like "bottom 4 most years and bottom 8 the rest"...
     
  34. DavidTai

    DavidTai Member SoSH Member

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    657
    Saw this last week, putting it up now before I forget any further.

    https://mitsloan.mit.edu/ideas-made-to-matter/coaching-matters

    Relevant portion:
    The main paper itself is linked in the article.
     
  35. McBride11

    McBride11 Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    09 was spygate
    16 deflateage
    17 was cooks
    Had to look up 2013 - trade with the Vikings for No. 52, 83, 102, and 229 overall. Funny enough that first round pick ended up being CP.
    I can't tease out the 2000 draft, the Wiki page is lacking.
     
  36. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    20,262
    2000 we traded for BB
     
  37. Cousin Walter

    Cousin Walter lurker

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    115
    '09 was a trade down that led to Chung. Spygate was '08.
     

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