The upcoming Braxton Miller Free Agency circus

BigMike

Moderator
Moderator
SoSH Member
Sep 26, 2000
23,244

Mugsy's Jock

Eli apologist
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 28, 2000
15,069
UWS, NYC
(Posted on an iPad at 4am, so my editing/formatting is not exactly up to snuff)

Good idea for a column, and I'm no expert but I'm sure there's a lot of good analysis in here. However, this little bit made me roll my eyes in a big way...

BOSTON COLLEGE. The reasoning: The Eagles have a fifth-year transfer at quarterback this season in Tyler Murphy, who arrived from Florida. (He signed with UF when Urban Meyer was coach.) BC uses a run-heavy offense and has been successful this season despite Murphy being no passing threat. Miller is a better passer than Murphy -- and a better runner, too. Plus, in going to college in the Boston area, perhaps Miller soaks up some of the Tom Brady "vibe" via osmosis....

I mean, if going to college in Boston gets you Brady-like, a.) why not go to Harvard?, and b.) how come my little sister, also living in Boston, still can't throw a football?
 

Infield Infidel

teaching korea american
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
11,463
Meeting Place, Canada
Grin&MartyBarret said:
I'm sure he'll decide based on a thorough analysis of how his academic credits will transfer and what's best for his education.
 
He can only transfer and play next year if he graduates, so he doesn't have to transfer any credits, he just has to go to grad school, much like Russel Wilson a few years back. Upperclassmen normally don't transfer because no FBS schools take more than 2 years worth of  undergraduate transfer credits. 
 
I think he should just go pro. It's a QB heavy draft but another year will only help his stock wrt people absolutely knowing his injury healed completely. There's a chance he doesn't heal fully, but it's not likely, and he could always get injured again. 
 

Kremlin Watcher

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
5,232
Orleans, MA
Infield Infidel said:
 
He can only transfer and play next year if he graduates, so he doesn't have to transfer any credits, he just has to go to grad school, much like Russel Wilson a few years back. Upperclassmen normally don't transfer because no FBS schools take more than 2 years worth of  undergraduate transfer credits.
He can only transfer post-graduation to a school that offers a post-graduate degree program that his current school does not. Given the fact that tOSU probably offers every graduate degree known to man, I imagine it might be difficult for him to find a school that qualifies.
 
Of course, I want him to transfer to Texas, so maybe they can think of something in an obscure field that he'd qualify for.
 
Edit: he just tweeted that he's staying with Brutus for the 2015 season.
 

soxfan121

JAG
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
23,043
Infield Infidel said:
I think he should just go pro. It's a QB heavy draft but another year will only help his stock wrt people absolutely knowing his injury healed completely. There's a chance he doesn't heal fully, but it's not likely, and he could always get injured again. 
 
Significant difference in NFL earnings between Zach Mettenberger and Russell Wilson and Teddy Bridgewater and Blake Bortles. Yes, if Miller is good, his next contract more than makes up for it but Bortles is possibly set for life while Mettenberger is probably selling insurance if they are busts. 
 

Infield Infidel

teaching korea american
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
11,463
Meeting Place, Canada
It's a moot point now, but for a QB, he doesn't have to be that good, he just has to be an average backup by the end of the contract to make up for it. Non-rookie backups get at least $3-4m/yr, about the total contract difference between being a late 1st round pick and a 3rd round pick. Since it also adds a year of earnings, it's basically a wash. Also increases the chances you get on a better team. 
 
In the rookie scale era, potential draftees know that unless you are a surefire top 15 pick, the difference in total salary isn't that much. Compared to before the rookie cap, it's waayyy less of a difference, even at the top (look a Sam Bradford's insane contract). That's why early entries have almost doubled since the rookie cap was instituted. It used to be consistently in the 40s and 50s but now it's much more. 
 
2014 - 98
2013 - 73
2012 - 65
2011 - 56
2010 - 53
2009 - 46
2008 - 53
2007 - 40
2006 - 52
2005 - 51
 

soxfan121

JAG
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
23,043
Certainly. My point was that entering the draft and being taken in the 6th round (Zach Mettenberger) is vastly different than being taken at the end of the first round (Bridgewater) or at the top of the first (Bortles). Mettenberger will, if he plays out all four seasons, make $2.2M. Bortles will make $20M; Bridgewater $7M.
 
Unless Miller was a projected first round pick, he would be making a financial mistake not returning to college and re-establishing his draft value (post-injury). It's a minimum of $5M and maybe closer to $15M. 
 

FL4WL3SS

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2006
14,913
Andy Brickley's potty mouth
Fred in Lynn said:
I have to think that Meyer would encourage him to stay while convincing Barrett to accept it. That would certainly help Meyer the most.
Why would this help Meyer? Depth is a nice thing, but Barrett is already a better QB than Braxton. He knows the playbook better, makes better decisions and using his athleticism better. Braxton is a good athlete that can single-handedly take over a game, but Barrett is the better all-around QB.
 

Infield Infidel

teaching korea american
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
11,463
Meeting Place, Canada
soxfan121 said:
Certainly. My point was that entering the draft and being taken in the 6th round (Zach Mettenberger) is vastly different than being taken at the end of the first round (Bridgewater) or at the top of the first (Bortles). Mettenberger will, if he plays out all four seasons, make $2.2M. Bortles will make $20M; Bridgewater $7M.
 
Unless Miller was a projected first round pick, he would be making a financial mistake not returning to college and re-establishing his draft value (post-injury). It's a minimum of $5M and maybe closer to $15M. 
 
The difference between Mettenberger and Bridgewater's deals is only $4.8m. If a player gets to a second contract, even as a backup QB, he'll make around that much the first year of the second contract. And there isn't a chance for a injury the senior year. And it adds a year of pay to the back-end of the career.
 
 
Let's take this year by year. I doubt he'd be as low as a 6th round pick this year, but let's go with that as a worst case comparison
 
Staying senior year, 30th pick
2015 - college
2016 - 1.3m
2017 - 1.6m
2018 - 1.9m
2019 - 2.2m
total - 7.0m
 
Leaving early, 200th pick
2015 - 445k
2016 - 535k
2017 - 625k
2018 - 715k
2019 - 2.5m (avg for vet backup, which includes a lot of scrubs)
total - 5.8m
 
So if he doesn't flame out of the NFL, he'd be a 1.2m worse off if he declares early and gets drafted in the sixth round instead of late 1st. That 1.2m disappears if he's a high 3rd round pick. Plus he'd be adding a year of earnings to the end of his career. Nevermind that he could be on the bench next season with OSU, or moved to another position, or get injured and probably not drafted, or have a crappy year and end up a later pick anyway.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 2, 2006
22,345
Philadelphia
Infield Infidel said:
 
The difference between Mettenberger and Bridgewater's deals is only $4.8m. If a player gets to a second contract, even as a backup QB, he'll make around that much the first year of the second contract. And there isn't a chance for a injury the senior year. And it adds a year of pay to the back-end of the career.
 
 
Let's take this year by year. I doubt he'd be as low as a 6th round pick this year, but let's go with that as a worst case comparison
 
Staying senior year, 30th pick
2015 - college
2016 - 1.3m
2017 - 1.6m
2018 - 1.9m
2019 - 2.2m
total - 7.0m
 
Leaving early, 200th pick
2015 - 445k
2016 - 535k
2017 - 625k
2018 - 715k
2019 - 2.5m (avg for vet backup, which includes a lot of scrubs)
total - 5.8m
 
So if he doesn't flame out of the NFL, he'd be a 1.2m worse off if he declares early and gets drafted in the sixth round instead of late 1st. That 1.2m disappears if he's a high 3rd round pick. Plus he'd be adding a year of earnings to the end of his career. Nevermind that he could be on the bench next season with OSU, or moved to another position, or get injured and probably not drafted, or have a crappy year and end up a later pick anyway.
 
I'd guess that, all else equal, its a lot harder to reach "vet backup" status when you start as the 200th pick in the draft.  Nobody is going to pay you 3-4M a year to be a backup unless you've demonstrated some competence in game situations over the course of your rookie deal and while the 30th pick in the draft is basically guaranteed to have been given multiple shots at doing that, the 200th pick in the draft needs a combination of hard work and good fortune to get those shots.
 
I don't follow the college game that closely but I'm skeptical that Braxton Miller has much chance of ever being the 30th pick in the draft to begin with though.  I'd say the argument for coming out now hinges more strongly on the notion that his draft stock is never going to very high and he's going to have to work his way up from a backup position anyway, so whether that's coming in as a 6th rounder in 2015 or a 4th rounder in 2016 doesn't really matter much.
 

Fred in Lynn

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 3, 2013
4,905
Not Lynn (or Ocean Side)
FL4WL3SS said:
Why would this help Meyer? Depth is a nice thing, but Barrett is already a better QB than Braxton. He knows the playbook better, makes better decisions and using his athleticism better. Braxton is a good athlete that can single-handedly take over a game, but Barrett is the better all-around QB.
Why is it better to have two hot girls that want to please you rather than one? Does not compute. Error.
 

Fred in Lynn

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 3, 2013
4,905
Not Lynn (or Ocean Side)
Reboot. You're working from the false premise that it's over for Miller. He may very well have taken his last snap as a starter, but he doesn't seem to think so and Meyer hasn't said a thing. And why would he? Again, I can't possibly imagine how having one of two QBs to choose from is a problem he can't handle (I'm not at all sure why you have anyone switching positions). Being a FBS-quality QB at a top school and sitting on the bench because someone's ahead of you is not an unusual scenario.
 

Fred in Lynn

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 3, 2013
4,905
Not Lynn (or Ocean Side)
From another angle, annointing a young guy the starter while your veteran leader recovers from an injury is wrought with problems of a different kind. If there's a performance difference between the two, it's subtle, and one of the two has paid dues. Meyer better be darn sure Barrett has earned the right to start or then he will have a problem on his hands. If he makes this decision before Miller is completely back and ready to go, then he deserves what he gets. Let them resolve it on the practice field. Right now, we're dealing with speculation.
 

soxfan121

JAG
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
23,043
Infield Infidel said:
 
The difference between Mettenberger and Bridgewater's deals is only $4.8m. If a player gets to a second contract, even as a backup QB, he'll make around that much the first year of the second contract. And there isn't a chance for a injury the senior year. And it adds a year of pay to the back-end of the career.
 
 
Let's take this year by year. I doubt he'd be as low as a 6th round pick this year, but let's go with that as a worst case comparison
 
Staying senior year, 30th pick
2015 - college
2016 - 1.3m
2017 - 1.6m
2018 - 1.9m
2019 - 2.2m
total - 7.0m
 
Leaving early, 200th pick
2015 - 445k
2016 - 535k
2017 - 625k
2018 - 715k
2019 - 2.5m (avg for vet backup, which includes a lot of scrubs)
total - 5.8m
 
So if he doesn't flame out of the NFL, he'd be a 1.2m worse off if he declares early and gets drafted in the sixth round instead of late 1st. That 1.2m disappears if he's a high 3rd round pick. Plus he'd be adding a year of earnings to the end of his career. Nevermind that he could be on the bench next season with OSU, or moved to another position, or get injured and probably not drafted, or have a crappy year and end up a later pick anyway.
 
I can't think of a guy who was drafted late spent four years on the bench and then got a "backup" contract worth the average. Hoyer comes close but he's making a little less than $2M total on a two-year deal. Old CBA-new CBA makes comparing apples-to-apples difficult. Most of the higher-end backup contracts - Vick, Orton - are former starters. And starters get more than $2.5M. Basically, I don't think there's much chance of anyone spending four years as a backup and then getting an average backup deal in year five. Ryan Mallet might but he also was a third round pick. 
 
I haven't seen Miller play enough to know if he's NFL caliber, as a starter or a backup. I just know that if he thinks he's good enough to play in the NFL, he's better off taking the risk of re-establishing his draft value than he is taking the Greg McElroy route.
 

FL4WL3SS

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2006
14,913
Andy Brickley's potty mouth
Fred in Lynn said:
Reboot. You're working from the false premise that it's over for Miller. He may very well have taken his last snap as a starter, but he doesn't seem to think so and Meyer hasn't said a thing. And why would he? Again, I can't possibly imagine how having one of two QBs to choose from is a problem he can't handle (I'm not at all sure why you have anyone switching positions). Being a FBS-quality QB at a top school and sitting on the bench because someone's ahead of you is not an unusual scenario.
No. I'm working from the correct premise that Barrett is the better quarterback and is the better fit in Urban's offense.
 

twothousandone

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 18, 2001
3,976
Fred in Lynn said:
I can't possibly imagine how having one of two QBs to choose from is a problem he can't handle 
It's not unheard of, but when both are "winners" there's a much greater chance of conflict if/when the one on the field has a bad game. And that can be a distraction -- it's not really like having too much starting pitching.
 
soxfan121 said:
 
Infield Infidel said:
 
soxfan121 said:
I know it's kind of a moot point, but I'm enjoying the debate. Sometimes, people around here really argue good.
 

Chemistry Schmemistry

has been programmed to get funky/cry human tears
SoSH Member
Apr 1, 2002
7,868
Michigan
Including bonus money, there are 33 QBs in the league making more than $2.5M this season. Among starters, Hoyer, Mallett, Carr, Mettenberger, Bridgewater and, most notably, Wilson, are making less than $1.5M. If you have a bit of starting experience, but you're signed as a backup, you're probably looking at $1-$2M. That's for the Campbell/Whitehurst/Gradkowski type of player. Orton (and Matt Moore, for some reason) are the exceptions. And many people thought Orton was signed with the expectation that he'd start.

The thought that Miller will profit from leaving early if it costs him draft position is an odd one. The total money comparison doesn't factor in the big fourth-year renegotiation if he does pan out (which is why Wilson is getting big money in a few months rather than in 2016), and it doesn't give the higher draftee the benefit of that second contract.

Basically, draft position pays you for three years. After that, it's mostly about whether you're a starter.
 

Infield Infidel

teaching korea american
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
11,463
Meeting Place, Canada
If he declared, I think his situation would be similar to Ryan Mallet. For different, non-quality-of-play reasons, neither would get drafted highly. He wouldn't drop because he's bad, it's because he's hurt. So if he drops because of injury, but teams still like him, he'd fall to say 4th-6th round. If he regains his quality and develops into a borderline starter by the end of the first contract, he'd be in line to get whatever Mallet gets. Especially if a team like Philadelphia drafts him late. 
 
There's a significant chance he doesn't play at all next season. What's the highest a QB who didn't start his final season has been drafted? I guess Miller is banking on improving, because he'd have to improve to start at OSU. He'll also be 23 when he's in the draft. 
 

soxfan121

JAG
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
23,043
Infield Infidel said:
What's the highest a QB who didn't start his final season has been drafted? 
 
Mettenberger and Murray both went in the 6th of last year's draft, though both did play before having their seasons cut short. Again, no idea if those guys are college-comparable or if they're going to be good pros. 
 
Matt Cassel was a 7th round pick. ;-)
 

PaulinMyrBch

Don't touch his dog food
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 10, 2003
8,316
MYRTLE BEACH!!!!
Everett Golson is likely on the market as well. Didn't start the bowl game although he played some. Graduates in May.