The terribly mediocre Lakers

HomeRunBaker

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The one difference on offense for Kyrie is he is hitting more of his 2 point FG %. This is the 5th year in a row he has improved. Right now he is at 54.5%, last year was his career high at 50.5. Who knows how sustainable it is, but a lot of it is due to him finishing inside 3 feet to 70% this year. His career rate is 60%.

Still, it's mostly defense.
I'd imagine a trajectory such as that is sustainable throughout his peak years as these numbers are consistent with what one would expect as he increases his natural strength, experience, and overall improvement during his peak seasons. This is who Kyrie is. We saw it in the playoffs the past two seasons ever those who didn't watch a lot of him during the regular seasons.
 

BigSoxFan

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I've watched too much Lakers' basketball lately, and they just aren't terrible enough. Clarkson, Ingram, Randle, Kuzma, etc--really not too bad.
I hate them even more now.
Yup. This is a team that is on the right track. They’re about to go through a brutal stretch but they’re good enough to surprise a few teams and they’re starting to take care of business against the bad to mediocre teams. Chances of them finishing bottom 5 or 6 just aren’t very good.
 

Manzivino

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The close wins over Washington and Philly really hurt, I think the outlook would be a lot better if they were 8-18 and on pace for 25 wins.
 

mauf

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I’d rather roll the dice on the Kings’ 2019 pick than get the 4th or 5th pick next year, so the Lakers’ (relative) success doesn’t concern me — we’ll still get enough ping-pong balls to make the lottery worth watching.

Incidentally, although Danny has done an incredible job overall, I’m ready to tag drafting Marcus Smart over Julius Randle as a mistake. Sure would love to have Randle in the rotation.
 

nighthob

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I think the fact that Colin Sexton has emerged as a major talent makes even that 4/5 pick valuable. Right now Sexton looks like a guy that would normally be a top 3 pick, but in this draft he’s relegated to the 4-6 range (unless he just keeps improving as the year goes, in which case he just might force his way up there).

But having Porter, Sexton, and even Bamba on the board makes that pick a major trade chit.
 

uk_sox_fan

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I’d rather roll the dice on the Kings’ 2019 pick than get the 4th or 5th pick next year, so the Lakers’ (relative) success doesn’t concern me — we’ll still get enough ping-pong balls to make the lottery worth watching.
With the Top 5 next year being some combination of Ayton, Bagley, Doncic, Bamba and Porter (assuming he rehabs well) what part of picks 4 or 5 don't you like?
 

the moops

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I’d rather roll the dice on the Kings’ 2019 pick than get the 4th or 5th pick next year, so the Lakers’ (relative) success doesn’t concern me —
This seems foolish. Yes, the Kings suck and will most likely suck in 2018/2019, but there are so many more worse possibilities with that pick compared to the 4/5 this year.
 

uk_sox_fan

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I think the fact that Colin Sexton has emerged as a major talent makes even that 4/5 pick valuable. Right now Sexton looks like a guy that would normally be a top 3 pick, but in this draft he’s relegated to the 4-6 range (unless he just keeps improving as the year goes, in which case he just might force his way up there).

But having Porter, Sexton, and even Bamba on the board makes that pick a major trade chit.
Beat me to it. And yes, Sexton has been a revelation so far (and the 3 on 5 game was sick) but if I'm wish-casting I'm going for Doncic or one of the 4 bigs.
 

DJnVa

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They’re not so terrible anymore :(
Eh. Bulls and Hawks aside they only had 2 more wins than any other team and they have a difficult schedule coming up. They're on pace to win like 31 games before this tough stretch kicks in.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Lakers thread might not be the right place for this, but since people are talking about the Lakers pick here... I'd seen a little bit of Bamba earlier this year, as well as highlights, but I watched the entire (ugly) Texas-Michigan game yesterday. Bamba can block shots without jumping, and he's active on that end. He's fun to watch. He also seems to have a decent shooting stroke for a young big. But... that's about it. He needs to work on positioning at both ends. He needs to put on weight and add strength. He has few offensive moves, mediocre court/spacing awareness, and his footwork seems nonexistent. I'm not saying he's Fab Melo, but he looks like a role player in the NBA for the next few years. If you're a rebuilding team, that's fine, but for the C's...? He's dropping on my wish list (assuming, of course, we get the LA pick).
 

DannyDarwinism

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This seems foolish. Yes, the Kings suck and will most likely suck in 2018/2019, but there are so many more worse possibilities with that pick compared to the 4/5 this year.
Yeah, unless you think the 2019 draft is substantially better, I don't really get it either. You'd basically be banking on the Kings being a bottom 4 team, and even in that best case scenario, you'd still only have a 26% chance of that pick being better (2nd or 3rd), and that would come with a 14% chance of ending up with the likely non-lotto Sixers pick.

I can't figure out how to post the table here, but wikipedia has the breakdown for the 2019 draft odds using the new lottery rules.
 

Jimbodandy

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I’d rather roll the dice on the Kings’ 2019 pick than get the 4th or 5th pick next year, so the Lakers’ (relative) success doesn’t concern me — we’ll still get enough ping-pong balls to make the lottery worth watching.
Have to think that Danny set the floor on that Lakers pick at 5 for a reason.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I've watched too much Lakers' basketball lately, and they just aren't terrible enough. Clarkson, Ingram, Randle, Kuzma, etc--really not too bad.
I hate them even more now.
They aren't terrible, but they are still really bad and at this point, it appears that all of the bottom feeders (other than ATL and not including players lost to injury) have some talent on their team.

Plus, it seems like to me that Ingram is not a candidate to play 82 games given how often he goes into the lane and his lack of heft on his frame.
 

Sam Ray Not

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As much upside potential as Ingram has flashed this season, he's still been a substantial net negative for them on the floor so far (-5.7 pts per 100 possessions on court, +2.4 off, -8.1 net). Edit: also .507 true shooting.

Based on net rating, the guys you want to see not play so much are Randle and Clarkson, followed by KCP and Kuzma.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/LAL/2018/on-off/
 

Manzivino

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Have to think that Danny set the floor on that Lakers pick at 5 for a reason.
It was pretty widely regarded as a 5 player top tier once Bagley reclassified, and if the Lakers pick conveys the Celtics are in the luxury tax next year. Seems like the calculus was that after 5 the marginal value of pushing off the cap hit was greater than the delta in expected available talent by enough to offset the downside of having to wait an extra year for the pick.
 

mcpickl

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I’d rather roll the dice on the Kings’ 2019 pick than get the 4th or 5th pick next year, so the Lakers’ (relative) success doesn’t concern me — we’ll still get enough ping-pong balls to make the lottery worth watching.

Incidentally, although Danny has done an incredible job overall, I’m ready to tag drafting Marcus Smart over Julius Randle as a mistake. Sure would love to have Randle in the rotation.
I'd take Smart over Randle easily. Randle is a numbers hanger. He's so bad defensively that I think if he's ever on a playoff team, he gets the Kanter treatment and gets nailed to the bench.
 

Cesar Crespo

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But having Porter, Sexton, and even Bamba on the board makes that pick a major trade chit.
Does it? I guess if there is a player on his rookie deal soon up for the max. The Celtics don't have salary to match in any deals. They almost have to keep the player they draft.
 

Manzivino

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Does it? I guess if there is a player on his rookie deal soon up for the max. The Celtics don't have salary to match in any deals. They almost have to keep the player they draft.
Morris, Brown, and Smart sign-and-traded at ~14-15 gets you within 20% of a max contract for salary matching rules.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Morris, Brown, and Smart sign-and-traded at ~14-15 gets you within 20% of a max contract for salary matching rules.
What would the odds be of Smart choosing the team (and the team choosing Smart) who also has the player we desire? The odds of all this coming together perfectly would seem pretty remote.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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What would the odds be of Smart choosing the team (and the team choosing Smart) who also has the player we desire? The odds of all this coming together perfectly would seem pretty remote.
That you could end up with Brown as well could be enough to move the needle for some teams. Brown, Smart, and Morris give you a younh starting wing with high upside, and two starter/bench tweeners that can contribute meaningful minutes. For teams looking to rebuild, that's not an insulting package.

Unlike your package. Which every woman is insulted by.
 

Manzivino

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What would the odds be of Smart choosing the team (and the team choosing Smart) who also has the player we desire? The odds of all this coming together perfectly would seem pretty remote.
Depends on what his market is, he may be able to make more in a sign and trade than he would on the open market and still hit UFA at 27 or 28. Obviously a lot of moving pieces, but I was throwing it out there as one possible permutation to show what they can do with a little creativity. Likely a moot point anyway as the Lakers pick is a longshot to convey.
 

nighthob

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What would the odds be of Smart choosing the team (and the team choosing Smart) who also has the player we desire? The odds of all this coming together perfectly would seem pretty remote.
What the hell does Smart have to do with it? He’s restricted, if the sign & trade got him more money, which it will, he’ll happily sign on the line even if the destination were fucking Cleveland.
 

HomeRunBaker

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What the hell does Smart have to do with it? He’s restricted, if the sign & trade got him more money, which it will, he’ll happily sign on the line even if the destination were fucking Cleveland.
You've been beating the "there is no market for Smart" for like a year and a half now. Either there is a market in which case he would have to choose the one where the deal would be for the Celtics or there isn't a market in which case the team doesn't want to pay him $15m. You can't have it both ways......which is it?
 

Cesar Crespo

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Morris, Brown, and Smart sign-and-traded at ~14-15 gets you within 20% of a max contract for salary matching rules.
That would have to be one hell of a player to move Brown and a top 5 pick for him.

I also don't think trading IT4 is the same thing as trading Al Horford since the 2 players were acquired in different fashions. With that said, I definitely wouldn't put it passed Ainge to trade him. I just don't see it as likely. It's probably more likely than the team trading Jaylen Brown though. I guess if someone like Anthony Davis becomes available the team could offer Horford, Brown and the pick.

I personally hope they keep it because this team with a healthy Gordon Hayward and an improved Tatum, Brown, Rozier et al next year is going to be deadly. Then when it is time to move on from Horford, Hayward and Kyrie, you have a new big 3 of Tatum, Brown and 2018 lottery pick to carry the team for another 5-10 years.

I'm very bullish on Jaylen Brown though. I think he's going to be a 20/8 guy on effective shooting and lock down defense which would make him a top 20-25 player in the game.
 

Cesar Crespo

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You've been beating the "there is no market for Smart" for like a year and a half now. Either there is a market in which case he would have to choose the one where the deal would be for the Celtics or there isn't a market in which case the team doesn't want to pay him $15m. You can't have it both ways......which is it?
He isn't trying to have it both ways. He's playing along with the scenario in which Marcus Smart would get more money in a S&T. In that scenario, Smart is going to sign with any team.
 

nighthob

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You've been beating the "there is no market for Smart" for like a year and a half now. Either there is a market in which case he would have to choose the one where the deal would be for the Celtics or there isn't a market in which case the team doesn't want to pay him $15m. You can't have it both ways......which is it?
I think everyone else understands that in a Smart sign & trade for an all star the assets are Brown and the Laker pick and that Smart’s just the salary ballast. Because he’s restricted, there are about eight teams with any cap space, and a buttload of players available, Smart’s odds of getting an offer on his own are pretty remote.
 

Manzivino

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That would have to be one hell of a player to move Brown and a top 5 pick for him.

I also don't think trading IT4 is the same thing as trading Al Horford since the 2 players were acquired in different fashions. With that said, I definitely wouldn't put it passed Ainge to trade him. I just don't see it as likely. It's probably more likely than the team trading Jaylen Brown though. I guess if someone like Anthony Davis becomes available the team could offer Horford, Brown and the pick.

I personally hope they keep it because this team with a healthy Gordon Hayward and an improved Tatum, Brown, Rozier et al next year is going to be deadly. Then when it is time to move on from Horford, Hayward and Kyrie, you have a new big 3 of Tatum, Brown and 2018 lottery pick to carry the team for another 5-10 years.

I'm very bullish on Jaylen Brown though. I think he's going to be a 20/8 guy on effective shooting and lock down defense which would make him a top 20-25 player in the game.
It was just to illustrate they could make the salaries work, I agree there aren’t many targets that make sense. In fact I just went through the list of contracts and if you assume Davis isn’t being traded, there literally isn’t a single one that might realistically be available.

I’m not quite that bullish on Brown but I looked up the guys 21 and under who averaged 14 and 5 on 45/35 shooting and 2 3pa/g and the list is impressive.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I think everyone else understands that in a Smart sign & trade for an all star the assets are Brown and the Laker pick and that Smart’s just the salary ballast. Because he’s restricted, there are about eight teams with any cap space, and a buttload of players available, Smart’s odds of getting an offer on his own are pretty remote.
Yeah, but it has to be the "right" salary to make a deal work, for Smart to accept it and for the team to pay it to Smart on a long term deal, the right mix of players for both Ainge and the other GM agree that each is getting a great deal.....which doesn't even account for this fictitious All-Star player becoming available. That's a lot of "stuff" that has to happen perfectly.
 

nighthob

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Yeah, but it has to be the "right" salary to make a deal work, for Smart to accept it and for the team to pay it to Smart on a long term deal, the right mix of players for both Ainge and the other GM agree that each is getting a great deal.....which doesn't even account for this fictitious All-Star player becoming available. That's a lot of "stuff" that has to happen perfectly.
You understand that Manzivino was discussing a hypothetical situation, yes?
 

DannyDarwinism

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I think the fact that Colin Sexton has emerged as a major talent makes even that 4/5 pick valuable. Right now Sexton looks like a guy that would normally be a top 3 pick, but in this draft he’s relegated to the 4-6 range (unless he just keeps improving as the year goes, in which case he just might force his way up there).

But having Porter, Sexton, and even Bamba on the board makes that pick a major trade chit.
Have any thoughts on Trae Young? It seems like people nowadays throw out the Steph comps for any smooth but slight and relatively unathletic point guard who can shoot, but from what little I've seen, Young really does have a preternatural feel for the game. Plus, along with his shot, he changes speeds really well to facilitate his excellent handle and finishes pretty well for a guy his size. That said, I feel like there's been a fair amount of guys like him in college who end up getting bullied at the next level and find out that being within squinting distance of Steph's shooting/handle/craft is still a long way away from superstardom. I have seen scouts putting him ahead of Sexton, with some putting him in their top five. His numbers are tough to ignore for a freshman though, plus he's a fun guy to watch, so I'm sure I'll see more of him.
 

Gunfighter 09

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Good article about Lonzo from ESPN:

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/21704481/nba-why-lonzo-ball-star-lakers-post-kobe-era

Some highlights:
Says one executive who scouted Ball extensively for a team that picked in the top 10 this past summer: "If there's a prototype of a player who can have an immense effect without being a scorer, it's him. But half-court scoring is really important in the NBA, especially in the playoffs. Can you beat your man off the dribble when the shot clock is winding down? Can you score against a power forward on a switch? Can you shoot on the move? The answer is we don't know."

.....
"He's a bigger Ricky Rubio," one general manager says. "People like the Jason Kidd comp because Kidd couldn't shoot coming in, but Kidd exerted his will on the game physically, and he could control the game in the half court. Ball hasn't shown he can do that, even though he clearly knows what defenses are trying to do.

"I just don't see how he'll move the needle in terms of wins and losses unless you can get out on the break 50 times a game."

.......

Will Ball be a superstar? In the end, it might be the wrong question to ask. Basketball's new economy doesn't leave a lot of room in the rafters for the guys who attempt only 11 shots a game. So Ball might not get that jersey on the Lakers' wall. A more likely scenario? The next jersey on that wall won't belong to Lonzo Ball -- but will owe its presence to him.
 

Kliq

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One thing about the Kidd comps is that if Kidd played today, while still an excellent player, would be significantly less-effective. In the late-90s to early-2000s, a strong, physical point guard who excelled in the half-court but struggled to shoot from outside was practically an ideal player. Today, with the three point shot so much more valuable and the pace ticking back up; even if he reaches the lofty goal of being the next Kidd; I still don't think he would be as effective as prime-Jason Kidd.
 

nighthob

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Have any thoughts on Trae Young? It seems like people nowadays throw out the Steph comps for any smooth but slight and relatively unathletic point guard who can shoot, but from what little I've seen, Young really does have a preternatural feel for the game. Plus, along with his shot, he changes speeds really well to facilitate his excellent handle and finishes pretty well for a guy his size. That said, I feel like there's been a fair amount of guys like him in college who end up getting bullied at the next level and find out that being within squinting distance of Steph's shooting/handle/craft is still a long way away from superstardom. I have seen scouts putting him ahead of Sexton, with some putting him in their top five. His numbers are tough to ignore for a freshman though, plus he's a fun guy to watch, so I'm sure I'll see more of him.
If the Laker pick ended up in Philly hands, Trae Young is the guy they should be looking at. I imagine he has to be atop the Clippers' wish list too (given their likely mid to late lottery position). He definitely needs to bulk up in order to fit into the "all shots at the rim or behind the arc" game that coaches want from their point guards.

His shooting, though, makes him an ideal fit with guys like Ben Simmons (a much better fit than Fultz, to be brutally frank). I can't put him above Sexton, though, whose shooting has improved greatly since high school. But if he keeps this up this draft could just be a Big Seven affair.
 

the moops

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One thing about the Kidd comps is that if Kidd played today, while still an excellent player, would be significantly less-effective. In the late-90s to early-2000s, a strong, physical point guard who excelled in the half-court but struggled to shoot from outside was practically an ideal player. Today, with the three point shot so much more valuable and the pace ticking back up; even if he reaches the lofty goal of being the next Kidd; I still don't think he would be as effective as prime-Jason Kidd.
I would guess that Kidd wouldnt have waited until the second half of his career to become a three point threat. But yes, the late 90s version of him would be another great fit in today's game.
 

Kliq

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I would guess that Kidd wouldnt have waited until the second half of his career to become a three point threat. But yes, the late 90s version of him would be another great fit in today's game.
I'm sure Kidd would have figured it out if we are playing the time machine game; and even if he was shooting 30 percent from outside he could still be a fabulous player in today's game. The Kidd comparison are done because of his size and vision, but also because like Kidd he isn't a very good shooter. So even if he reaches his perceived ceiling of being Jason Kidd, that still doesn't make him as good of a player as Jason Kidd was, if that makes sense. I think if he can't shoot, his ceiling is lower than what a lot of people think because of the era of basketball he plays in.
 

Gunfighter 09

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Two days after taking the Warriors to overtime for the second time, the terrible Lakers snap the Rockets' 14 game winning streak on the road.

Kuzma had 38, and Lonzo had 16/4/9.
Randle only played 8 minutes for some reason.
 

jon abbey

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The Lakers played well, Kuzma had a new high of 38 and Brewer was on a mission against his old team (21 points in 25 minutes), but HOU had to basically play seven guys with Capela and Mbah a Moute out and Paul had to leave again early in the 4th, no word yet as to how serious.
 

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Kuzma was 12-17 including 7-10 from deep. He also had seven boards and four assists. He is unquestionably the steal of the 2017 draft.
 

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As frustrating as it is to see them win games, there are only 4 teams with fewer wins. The pick could still convey in 2018. I for one am rooting for that to happen.
 

JakeRae

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Kozma hitting a rookie wall would help.
Interestingly, box score metrics are unimpressed by Kuzma. He's a strong offensive player, but the stats say he's just as bad defensively. I'm not sure I buy that. It also doesn't really account for his recent usage jump while maintaining his efficiency. If he can keep that up, he can deliver value even as a terrible defender.