The Sox and the First Base Market

chawson

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Since these names keep cropping up in the risk/reward threads, it may be interesting to look closer at the first base market.

Many first basemen broke out last year (Bellinger, Olson, Hoskins, Gallo, Bird, Bour, Smoak, Bell, Mancini, Jose Martinez, Thames and uhh, Zimmerman), and it flooded the market. There are now way more available first basemen than spots for them.

Here they are listed in order of their 2017 xwOBA (per Statcast), because why not.

Starting caliber FA
Moreland (.371)
Alonso (.368)
Morrison (.367)
Santana (.362)
Duda (.353)
Hosmer (.353)
Frazier (3B) (.352)
Bruce (RF) (.351)
Adams (.340)

Possibly available by trade
Cabrera (DH) (.382)
Belt (.379)
Abreu (.364)
Cron (.333)
Myers (.321)
Flores (2B/3B) (.318)
Miller (2B/SS) (.316)
Valbuena (3B) (.312)
Vargas (.303)
Joseph (.302)

Platoon/DH/free guys
Avila (C) (.401)
Lind (.379)
Holliday (.333)
Reynolds (.321)
Napoli (.311)
Valencia (.297)
Carter (.294)

*Hanley Ramirez had a .351 xwOBA.

Likely few of those trade guys will actually be traded (and circumstances differ for each), but there's many good ones available, a buyer's market to say the least.

Only Boston, Cleveland, Kansas City, and Tampa Bay have clear openings at first. Teams with possible openings at first base include the Angels (Cron/Valbuena), Twins (Mauer), Mets (Flores/Smith), Rangers (Gallo), and Rockies (Desmond/McMahon).

Who knows how it's gonna shake out, but it would seem getting good value at first base would be hard to screw up.
 
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Buzzkill Pauley

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I haven’t looked at xwOBA before, but any measure with Hanley Ramirez’s 2017 as a .351 and Logan Morrison’s 2017 as a .367 doesn’t appear to have very high utility as a comparative tool.

If you're going to use it to compare different players, please explain it first.
 

chawson

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Sure, yes. It's one of the newfangled Statcast formulas, explained with precision here. Essentially, it measures exit velocity and launch angle while neutralizing defense. Quality of contact, expectation of a hit — things like that.

Not sure I'd agree that Morrison's 2017 wasn't markedly better than Hanley's. But the more interesting numbers belonged to Moreland (his xwOBA was quite a bit higher than his wOBA, fwiw) and Cabrera, whose figure makes him look pretty unlucky.
 

sean1562

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Chris Shaw was the supposed replacement for Belt if they traded him, right? I think if they get Giancarlo they are not worried about the luxury tax, certainly not to the point of trading us Belt.
 

Sampo Gida

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I do think the Red Sox need to find a LH power bat at 1B. This has been lacking since Papi left. Red Sox only hit 18 HR to RF (or RF-C 80 deg horizontal angle or less, 90 deg dead CF), 10 less than 2016

Man. That's a haul. Sox can't touch that offer.
No mention how much money they want Miami to pick up. Supposedly that's most important.
 

NDame616

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I do think the Red Sox need to find a LH power bat at 1B. This has been lacking since Papi left. Red Sox only hit 18 HR to RF (or RF-C 80 deg horizontal angle or less, 90 deg dead CF), 10 less than 2016



No mention how much money they want Miami to pick up. Supposedly that's most important.
You know that's only been one season right? Not that you're wrong, but you're wording makes it seem like it's something we've been missing for years....
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Sure, yes. It's one of the newfangled Statcast formulas, explained with precision here. Essentially, it measures exit velocity and launch angle while neutralizing defense. Quality of contact, expectation of a hit — things like that.

Not sure I'd agree that Morrison's 2017 wasn't markedly better than Hanley's. But the more interesting numbers belonged to Moreland (his xwOBA was quite a bit higher than his wOBA, fwiw) and Cabrera, whose figure makes him look pretty unlucky.
Notice two things that Moreland and Cabrera have in common. As Fangraphs has pointed out, the factor xwOBA leaves out is speed. Faster players will turn outs into singles, singles into doubles, and doubles into triples. So their real wOBA should be higher than their xwOBA. And slow players (like Moreland and Cabrera) should have real wOBAs lower than their xwOBAs--as they do.

This not only helps explain discrepancies, it also makes discrepancies out of apparent congruities. For instance, Mookie Betts' xwOBA was .340, and his real wOBA was .339. At first glance it looks like this means his results tracked his abilities near-perfectly. But when you consider that Mookie is one of the fastest people in the game, you realize that his real wOBA should have been a good bit higher than his xwOBA--so he was really at least somewhat unlucky.
 

Oppo

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The $250 is what the Giants would pay of the remaining $295

Edit: too slow
 

smallball

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Re-sign Moreland and go after a big bopper. Let Hanley sub. (If he's not the solution at DH, he's not the solution at first, either, all things considered)
 

charlieoscar

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I do think the Red Sox need to find a LH power bat at 1B. This has been lacking since Papi left. Red Sox only hit 18 HR to RF (or RF-C 80 deg horizontal angle or less, 90 deg dead CF), 10 less than 2016....
Don't know your source but using Retrosheet play-by-play files I found seven HR listed at Fenway as HR-9 (LHB--Moreland-3, Leon, Betts; RHB--Ramirez, Betts) and eleven listed as HR-89 (all LHB--Benintendi-4, Moreland-3, Bradley-3, Devers). The overall total of 18 matches.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
I'm not an expert in reading spray charts, but Yonder Alonso seems to hit a lot of balls in the air to deep left.

http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.aspx?playerid=2530&position=1B&type=battedball&pid2=2530&ss1=2016&se1=2017&ss2=2016&se2=2017&cht1=hangtime&cht2=battedball&vs1=ALL&vs2=ALL

He might be the only possible steal on the market?
Judging from the spray chart overlay tool at Savant, I think Fenway would be a near-wash for Alonso in terms of HR added by LF vs. taken away by RF. But he'd gain a whole bunch of doubles.

He's not exactly a big bopper even after getting FB religion -- 28 HR is good, but in last year's context, nothing special -- and he's a meh defender. He's like Hosmer and Morrison in that an awful lot of his value hinges on his 2017 being repeatable. The pre-2017 Alonso is not a better player than Mitch Moreland.
 

chrisfont9

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Judging from the spray chart overlay tool at Savant, I think Fenway would be a near-wash for Alonso in terms of HR added by LF vs. taken away by RF. But he'd gain a whole bunch of doubles.

He's not exactly a big bopper even after getting FB religion -- 28 HR is good, but in last year's context, nothing special -- and he's a meh defender. He's like Hosmer and Morrison in that an awful lot of his value hinges on his 2017 being repeatable. The pre-2017 Alonso is not a better player than Mitch Moreland.
Hm, from that chart 15 outs become probable doubles or HRs at Fenway, and three doubles likely HRs. But I suppose you'd have to divide by half to represent a season on the Sox' roster. Still, while he may not be the next home run machine that some people seem to be clamoring for, those doubles alone could add up to a level of production that would make him pretty useful if he doesn't cost much. There wouldn't be draft pick compensation involved.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Hm, from that chart 15 outs become probable doubles or HRs at Fenway, and three doubles likely HRs. But I suppose you'd have to divide by half to represent a season on the Sox' roster.
That, and the fact that most of the balls shown clearing the Monster that wouldn't clear most parks are either line drives or FB's not hit especially hard, which suggests to me that they'd be likely wall-scrapers. I'm only seeing three outs and a couple of doubles on there that seem highly likely to be HR at Fenway, and about the same number of HR or doubles to RF that are likely to be outs at Fenway. But I'm seeing a good dozen or more outs to LF that are likely doubles at Fenway.
 

geoduck no quahog

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For the first time in a long time, I agree 100% with something on ESPN's site (subscribers only):

I know that people have tried to connect the Red Sox and J.D. Martinez. I don't think the outfield needs the help, and I don't think the team should trade Jackie Bradley Jr. I think the focus should be on first base, with the top priority being signing Carlos Santana or trading for Jose Abreu. Eric Hosmer is likely to cost the most, but for that very reason, the team should steer clear. Santana and Abreu are plenty good enough, and if those moves can't happen, Logan Morrison is right there as an affordable fallback. With one more steady presence, this lineup would look an awful lot better.
I know a lot of Soshers have been saying the same (or similar) thing.

- There's no reason to assume the current Red Sox lineup will suck as much in 2018 as they did in 2017
- Home runs are nice in the juiced ball / upper cut era (i.e. 2017), but that is bound to somewhat self-correct...at the very least power is a more volatile commodity than OBP.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....

Red(s)HawksFan

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This was fairly predictable.

Heyman seems to be working overtime for Boras trying to push a Hosmer to SD angle: https://www.fanragsports.com/heyman-myers-ok-with-outfield-move-if-padres-land-hosmer

Please let something actually come out of that when they don't land Ohtani.
The Padres would be insane to sign Hosmer for that kind of money, and they're insane to move Myers back to the outfield in order to do it. Myers moved to 1B primarily because he was a defensive liability in the outfield. Can't imagine he's gotten better with 2+ years not playing out there. Either Boras is working an angle to get Hosmer in somewhere else or Padres management is off their rocker.
 

chawson

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Sox made an offer to Santana.

I didn’t have the Phils on my list of possible spots at the top of this thread, which shows how good I am at reading this market.

It’s a surprise move. $60M is about $10M less than I thought he would get, and I’m shocked the Indians couldn’t or didn’t want to beat that.
 
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Sox Puppet

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Old friend Adrian Gonzalez was just sent to Atlanta in the cash-clearing Matt Kemp trade, and is expected to be DFA'd and available. He's 35 and hit just .242/.287/.355 with three homers and 30 RBI in 71 games for the Dodgers in 2017.

Any chance the Sox would be interested in him as a cheap lottery ticket, or is he toast?
 

Sampo Gida

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Old friend Adrian Gonzalez was just sent to Atlanta in the cash-clearing Matt Kemp trade, and is expected to be DFA'd and available. He's 35 and hit just .242/.287/.355 with three homers and 30 RBI in 71 games for the Dodgers in 2017.

Any chance the Sox would be interested in him as a cheap lottery ticket, or is he toast?
You beat me to it. I was wondering the same but seem to recall him leaving on poor terms as a result of his role in the Bobby V mutiny. Or maybe it was just painted that way to justify trading what was at the time one of the teams best players to dump Crawfords and Becketts contracts
 

Sampo Gida

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Sox made an offer to Santana.

I didn’t have the Phils on my list of possible spots at the top of this thread, which shows how good I am at reading this market.

It’s a surprise move. $60M is about $10M less than I thought he would get, and I’m shocked the Indians couldn’t or didn’t want to beat that.
The total is less than expected but so arent the years yielding an AAV a bit higher than expected
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Is Lucas "Froggy Went a-Courtin' and He Did Ride" Duda the target now? I'm sensing a slow down on the JDM market..... how long will teams and Boras wait and how low will his demands come down to a rational level? When he signs, obviously the market will explode again for all the bottled up 1st basemen out there. What's the preference if not Hosmer or JDM? Is Duda better than Moreland?
 

timlinin8th

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It’s a surprise move. $60M is about $10M less than I thought he would get, and I’m shocked the Indians couldn’t or didn’t want to beat that.
What's the preference if not Hosmer or JDM? Is Duda better than Moreland?
Santana only getting three years shows that the abundance of options available for 1B is driving down the price for all of them. My gut feeling is that DD is gunning for Hosmer, but using what Santana signed for and the leverage of having Duda/LoMo/Moreland available to try and drive down the price. If Hosmer can be signed for something in the ballpark of what Santana got I’d be fine with it... the Boras mega-contract expectation is obviously a non-starter.

If Boras sticks to his guns in negotiations, Plan B is calling the bluff and taking whichever one of the others is willing to accept a one year make good deal, and don’t think it really matters which one as they are mostly interchangeable.

If that is the case, I would also assume DD has some sort of deadline set for Hosmer to accept. If one of the Duda/LoMo/Moreland options get pulled off the table and narrow the leverage I see DD moving on something a lot quicker.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Santana only getting three years shows that the abundance of options available for 1B is driving down the price for all of them. My gut feeling is that DD is gunning for Hosmer, but using what Santana signed for and the leverage of having Duda/LoMo/Moreland available to try and drive down the price. If Hosmer can be signed for something in the ballpark of what Santana got I’d be fine with it... the Boras mega-contract expectation is obviously a non-starter.
I'm baffled as to why you think the Santana contract, which is higher in AAV than I think most people were projecting, is going to drive down Hosmer's price. While I agree with you that Santana is as good a player as Hosmer, and a more consistent one, that doesn't seem to be the public consensus--and the fact that Hosmer is several years younger also matters. In a market where Santana gets 3/60, I'd expect Hosmer to get something like 6/135 or even 7/150.
 

bohous

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Is Lucas "Froggy Went a-Courtin' and He Did Ride" Duda the target now? I'm sensing a slow down on the JDM market..... how long will teams and Boras wait and how low will his demands come down to a rational level? When he signs, obviously the market will explode again for all the bottled up 1st basemen out there. What's the preference if not Hosmer or JDM? Is Duda better than Moreland?

I like Duda over Moreland if he's healthy but you have to platoon him. It was mentioned in another thread that Brentz was being worked out at 1B. If they were to carry Brentz as the 4th OF/1B that would give them the flexibility to sit Duda vs LHP and either give Hanley those games at 1B and DH Brentz of vise versa.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
I like Duda over Moreland if he's healthy but you have to platoon him. It was mentioned in another thread that Brentz was being worked out at 1B. If they were to carry Brentz as the 4th OF/1B that would give them the flexibility to sit Duda vs LHP and either give Hanley those games at 1B and DH Brentz of vise versa.
Of course there's also Travis, who has pounded LHP righteously when healthy at every level--1.080 as a 20-year-old at Lowell, .969 the next year in Salem and Portland, .905 last year in Pawtucket and .958 in his brief MLB stint. Granted, it's not good roster management to use three spots on guys who can only play 1B or DH, so that's an issue. But a Duda/Travis platoon would stand a pretty decent chance of providing plus 1B offense at a very modest cost. At the least, knowing Travis is available in AAA makes signing a platoon guy like Duda seem that much more viable.
 

E5 Yaz

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