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The sixers and building a winner

Discussion in 'Mark Blount's Port Cellar: Celtics Forum' started by LondonSox, Jul 11, 2014.

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  1. The Needler

    The Needler lurker

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    He's now down to 13.6 ppg on .420/.389 shooting. Tatum at 13.9ppg/.499/.459.

    In Covington's last 22 games, he's shot .366 from the field and .316 from 3pt, averaging 11.5 ppg. In his last twelve, 10.3/.347/.295.

    But he's still significantly better than Tatum according to offensive RPM. Of course, he's also better in overall RPM than Durant, Paul George, and all but 14 other players in the league. This is the same guy who just went 2-8 for 5 points, no steals, no blocks, in 30 minutes against the Celtics.
     
  2. Bob420

    Bob420 lurker

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    Bryan Colangelo is going to have busted on two #1 overall picks. That is really hard to do. Throw in the fact that he traded a potential top 5 pick for the 2nd bust and it makes it unprecedented suck. The guy is a fraud and what the NBA did to the Sixers is a shame.

    As a Sixers fan that almost walked away when the older snake hired junior, there is a little consolation in watching Bryan suck at his job
     
  3. jmm57

    jmm57 Member SoSH Member

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    Simmons is a bust?
     
  4. Bob420

    Bob420 lurker

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    Bargnani certainly was a bust
     
  5. jmm57

    jmm57 Member SoSH Member

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    That's fair, being in the Philly thread I thought you were talking about the two #1s with Philly.
     
  6. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    In fairness, that 2006 draft was an absolute land mine:

    1. Andrea Bargnani (BUST)
    2. LaMarcus Aldridge (Best player)
    3. Adam Morrison (HUUUUUGE BUST)
    4. Tyrus Thomas (BUST)
    5. Shelden Williams (BIG BUST)
    6. Brandon Roy (Great player but damaged goods)
    7. Randy Foye (Decent role player)
    8. Rudy Gay (Solid career)
    9. Patrick O’Bryant (BIG BUST)
    10. Mouhamed Sene (BIG BUST)

    Top 10 yielded one perennial all-star, a guy who would have been another but had 80 year-old knees, a decent second option, and a decent role player.

    Yuck.
     
  7. jmm57

    jmm57 Member SoSH Member

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    Lowry at 24 and Millsap at 47 move wayyyyyyy up in the redraft.

    Aldridge
    Lowry
    Millsap
    Rondo
    Roy
    Redick
    Gay

    In the redraft?
     
  8. Bob420

    Bob420 lurker

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    It was a terrible draft but the best player was there at #2. Not some surprise later pick. He picked a complete bust at #1 and the 2nd player picked was very good.

    You get can get a pass for picking one bust in a bad draft and he did. Couple that with trading a potential top 5 pick for the opportunity to pick another bust and you take blame.

    He had a decent track record in identifying talent in the draft. He has a bad record in trades.

    The only reason he got the gift of the Sixers job was because of the league offices and his dad.
     
  9. jmm57

    jmm57 Member SoSH Member

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    Aldridge is very fair criticism, I mostly just read ESPN type places but for a lot of the season Aldridge was considered the clear top pick. He went out on a limb for AB and it was a disaster.

    Bargnani actually did have a much better 09-12 run then I remember, so he wasn't totally awful I guess, as just a volume scorer.
     
  10. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    Not really disagreeing with you. I was pretty surprised when Aldridge wasn’t the top pick. Bargnani was just a stupid choice. It’s also too early to call Fultz a bust but obviously the early returns aren’t positive.

    For now, the returns of Noel/Okafor/Fultz, the #6, #3, and #1 picks is quite putrid. That’s a lot of wasted draft capital for a franchise.
     
  11. Bob420

    Bob420 lurker

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    I have no problem with Noel. 6th pick in the draft often yields that kind of player. Okafor was clearly a terrible pick. The whole idea was to get as many top picks as possible to draft franchise type players with the understanding that some won't work out. I won't lie and say I didn't like Fultz as the pick in this draft. But trading another potential top pick to move up goes against everything they worked to do. If Fultz busts(and these picks should not be busting as often as they are for sixers), ok Lakers pick is next up. Then Sacramento pick. I wanted to keep the picks at the time and obviously even more now.

    I have been told I have an irrational hate for the Colangelos but to be fair it started in Dec 2015.
     
  12. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    I dunno if you can really blame him for taking Fultz even if Fultz is a bust. 29 out of 30 GMs would have made the same selection. You can dislike the trade, but after the traded was made, Fultz was the obvious choice.
     
  13. terrynever

    terrynever Member SoSH Member

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  14. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    Sure. But *should* he have been?

    And I mean this in the sense that obviously there was something that Ainge saw. What did he see that others didn't? And why? If 10 other GMs would have seen that, maybe he wouldn't have been obvious.

    And if you think that only what--5 or 6 teams really had a shot at drafting him, and 20% of those didn't want him #1, is it really "obvious"? Some dude from the front office of Golden State may have said "Yeah, Fultz is #1 on our board", but how much background did they really do?

    How many teams did Fultz actually work out for? 3? 4? Hell, if it was only Boston, LA, and Philly, then 33% of teams that did a deep dive on him said "Uh, no".
     
  15. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    I am skeptical that Ainge saw anything in Fultz that made him hesitate. Simplest explanation is that he liked Tatum as much or maybe even more, and trading down was a no brainer
     
  16. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    That's kind of the other side of the coin though, isn't it? What did Ainge see in Tatum that he valued that much more than anyone else?
     
  17. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    I know we will never know but I disagree with this. While I agree that Ainge had an idea how good Tatum was going to be and probably would have picked him had Fultz not had any red flags, he still saw red flags with Fultz.
     
  18. The Needler

    The Needler lurker

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    860
    Robert Covington watch:

    In his last 38 games, he's shooting .368/.316. He's 6-for-29 from three in his last five games.

    That's after going .494/.487 in his first 15 games.

    He's now within a whisper of his career averages in FG% and 3pt% on the season. His PPG is down to 12.8, a touch less than last year, and he's also down in steals, blocks, and rebounds from last year.
     
  19. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Ainge could have liked Tatum (or Jackson) equal and it's a no-brainer......even if he had Fultz slightly ahead of them it is still a no-brainer with the extra pick and the much better roster fit with a frontcourt player. I agree that this isn't anything Ainge had on the player as it wasn't even evident in summer league and it sure wasn't at Washington.
     
  20. LondonSox

    LondonSox Robert the Deuce SoSH Member

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    Yeah exactly HRB

    Sixers won 5 straight at home into the all star break.
    Since Christmas they have been a top 3 team defensively and a top ten offensive team. Second in net rating overall.

    Won without embiid yesterday coming back from 24 down vs the Heat. Nice to do instead of choke a lead.

    Sixers are the best rebounding team in the league and that heat game was the most extreme example. They had 60 rebounds to Miami's 29! 23 offensive to Miami's 3. Again without embiid (who has really improved his rebounding) too.

    Overall the keys to the improvement are the kids
    Embiid is in better shape and he's still great (though still not as great as last year) defensively. Offensively the three hasn't been there but the face up game is legit and he can bully a lot of people.
    All but a handful of teams have to double (which embiid is still inconsistent on and is prone to turnovers, but has had flashes).
    This opens up the shooting.

    In transition Simmons, esp off a board, pushes and creates opportunity for easy shots and if it isn't there he pulls it out.

    Saric has been huge, as he's settled back in as a starter and a role has been carved out.
    Depending on his matchup and if embiid is on the floor he can create out of the post, he's a wonderful passer but the key is his shot. He always seemed capable of it over time but it's been a big leap. He is up to .387 on 5 threes a game on the season. Mainly behind the break, and at his height it's a tough contest. He's not great defensively but he is smart and tries hard and he's surrounded by help.

    Simmons is a revelation defensively is guarding 1-4 and is such a pest in passing lanes, the bbiq shows here.

    Covington since he had a bad fall and hurt his back has not been the same guy offensively, part expected regression. He's just not a reliable shooter. But his defense is great.

    They added balinelli which is great for shooting and another wing. Likely you have Redick or him in that running around shooter.

    This let's you have three potenially reliable shooters, saric, JJ and Balinelli. Covington still is a threat too and can get hot. Anderson is more like Covington good defensively but up and down shooter.

    Only weird thing is why Holmes is buried. Yes he's not a great defender yet but he's not THAT bad and he brings leaping ability and the ally ops with good passers around him

    Ah well.

    Booker is a great hustle guy but the team can't afford non shooters with Ben and amir Johnson getting playing time.

    Tj McConnell has been great too. A triple double off the bench the other day. He can run the offense, he can hit a WIDE open 3 (actually at a good clip if he has the space for his.... Not quick shot). He knows his spot and can get there and is a real pest defensively
    In short a great backup point
     
  21. The Needler

    The Needler lurker

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    He shot .355 from the field and .306 from 3pt in the nine games prior to the Cleveland game in which he hurt his back. He's shot .361 and .305 since. If someone made excuses like this for a Celtic player, you'd call them a homer.

    His defense has been worse in every way, too. But we'll always have RPM.
     
  22. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    15,570
    Slight tangent.

    One great thing about this forum is posters for the most part are open-minded to learning new things as they come along. I remember back when we first began this thing "spacing" was mocked ferociously by some. Simmons and Ball are showing that you do not need to be a blur with tremendous foot speed for a young player to become an excellent defender. Much like how the league turned to floor spacers this league now is about 5-man defensive units and each piece being on the same page in regards to switches, shows, and proper secondary rotations by defenders not even in the play.

    Simmons and Ball (you can include tons of others like Sixers guard TJ McConnell) are tremendous positional defenders who utilize their instincts and ability to see a play develop ahead of time. We will still have guys like Collin Sexton who defends like a Patrick Beverley entering the league but with todays defensive philosophies a guy like say Doncic isn't going to be exposed defensively as one may expect based solely on his lack of lateral quickness much like many thought Simmons and Ball would have been.
     
    #1422 HomeRunBaker, Feb 16, 2018
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2018
  23. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    14,174
    Good point. The corollary to this - as DA has been talking about - is that length matters a lot. Length like Ball, Simmons, and Tatum can cover up a lot of foot speed deficiencies.
     
  24. LondonSox

    LondonSox Robert the Deuce SoSH Member

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    He played 3 games in December before hurting his back.
    His monthly 3%
    October 0.467
    November 0.442
    December 0.350
    January 0.343
    February 0.279

    So the drop off was right around then and of course I said PLUS EXPECTED REGRESSION, he was bad those previous games but confident. Since he has been hesitant.

    His defensive rating is still the same, he is second in the league in deflections, he's indeed still second in DRPM.
    So define "in every way".

    This is why it is so enjoyable to post content.
     
  25. The Needler

    The Needler lurker

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    860
    Can you explain the basketball significance of the turning of the calendar? Is it a lunar thing? Perhaps Monbo can shed some additional light.

    I just showed you that in the nine games prior to his back injury, he had substantially the same shooting percentage from the floor and from three that he's had since. What does the fact that six of those games were in November have to do with anything other than cherry-picked and superficial support of your injury excuse?

    This guy is not holding back because he's injured:



    There's a pretty clear line of demarcation in his 3pt shooting, and it has nothing to do with lunar cycles or an alleged lingering back injury. He shot flukily well for the first 15 games, and has been below average in every 10 or 15-game stretch since.

    Also not buying that the hesitancy has anything to do with his back; it has to do with his horrid shooting. In the first four games back after his fall against Cleveland, he averaged 15 FGA and 11 3PA, significantly more shots than he was averaging pre-injury. Because he's been so bad, he's become reluctant to shoot.

    I'm sorry it's not enjoyable to post content that is without any factual support.
     
    #1425 The Needler, Feb 16, 2018
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2018
  26. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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    5,001
    Wow, I wonder how a lurker without access to the members-only forums could possibly know about Monbo and the lunar cycles stuff?

    God, what dickish posts you write. I don't have a dog in this fight... but every other post you take some cheap shot, or drip as much condescension and mockery in as you can possibly muster. You're completely uninterested in discourse, or at least the kind of discourse that wouldn't get you punched in the nose were you to speak this way to someone in a bar. It makes threads unreadable, and ignoring you doesn't help since you pick fights with so many people and so many of them reply back.

    I'm not a mod, I'm just yet another poster begging you: please act like less of an asshole, or go away and be shitty to people somewhere else instead.
     
  27. LondonSox

    LondonSox Robert the Deuce SoSH Member

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    I was pointing out it's easy to draw the conclusion I did and also explained it was linked to an observation of a change to the eye and also said it likely partially regression.

    If you would like to say a nine game sample shows shit, ok. Good for you. It also came after a really good 9 game stretch right before it.

    The point you giant douchebag is I wrote a big long post full of content for the good of others and your only response is a criticism based on a 9 game sample and a personal cheap shot.

    You actually raise a good point I'd discuss with you but you're such an unpleasant person I'd rather not. I fully agree IN THE INITIAL post that it's regression to the mean.

    But since apparently, you do this constantly and widely it's not personal to me you're just unpleasant. So ignore is a lot easier.

    And that line of demarcation? So why is the monthly data a downward trend every month?
    I don't care if you answer as I won't see it.

    I also note your own unsubstantiated claim on defense got dropped.
     
  28. LondonSox

    LondonSox Robert the Deuce SoSH Member

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    Don't look now but the sixers are up to 4th with the easiest schedule remaining, only 3 good teams and all at home
    Sixers have a real shot at a home court playoff series which is bonkers.
     
  29. chilidawg

    chilidawg Member SoSH Member

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    They seem to be taking advantage of an easy schedule. Last quality win was over Cleveland 3/1, and before that it was Washington on 2/6. They're an interesting team for sure, I'm looking forward to seeing how they do in the playoffs. Home court seems important for them because they're much better at home.
     
  30. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    I think IND has the HtH tiebreaker over PHI but could be wrong about that.

    A CLE-PHI series would be great theatre but a lot of people are speculating that it would be an audition for LBJ to sign with the team. That team would be nuts.
     
  31. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    AKA "The Horford" ?
     
  32. LondonSox

    LondonSox Robert the Deuce SoSH Member

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    Sure because they had the hardest schedule early.

    They do they only played 3 times.
    I don't see how they meet in the first round and anything after that is a bit of guess work.

    Sixers have a very easy schedule, pacers one of the hardest. I would wager that sixers end 3 or 4 and likely play the wizards or pacers. But obviously it is so close that it's hard to know

    But I do think the sixers jumping to home court spot in the playoffs this year is the absolute top end of outcomes for the year. Pretty amazing being led by two kids with a combined 31 games as pros before this season.
     
  33. benhogan

    benhogan self-effacing SoSH Member

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    Agreed London Sox, think 76ers finish as the 3 seed.

    I'll have my eye on today's game against the Wolves.

    This was my post from a few weeks ago.

    The Philadelphia 76ers will be the Eastern Conference #3 seed. Book it.

    They sit 1 game behind in the loss column to the present #3 seed Pacers (tough remaining schedule).

    76ers remaining schedule is easy.
    -17 games left: 11 home/6 road games.
    -5 games left against playoff teams, ALL at home (Pacers, Nuggets, Cavs, Bucks, Wolves). All winnable, and they'll probably be favored in each of them.
    -12 against tankers.

    #3280benhogan, Mar 11, 2018
     
  34. JohnnyTheBone

    JohnnyTheBone Member SoSH Member

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    Hogstradamus was right on the money, once again!
     
  35. benhogan

    benhogan self-effacing SoSH Member

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    ha ha. That came off bad... Predicting the 76ers would beat tankers and road teams was kind of obvious. Cavs are trying their best to hold them off, but I think the Raptors come storming back in their next game with the LAND*.

    Sixers crushing the Wolves today helps their cause.

    * I believe Cleveland holds the tie-breaker advantage
     
    #1435 benhogan, Mar 24, 2018
    Last edited: Mar 24, 2018
  36. LondonSox

    LondonSox Robert the Deuce SoSH Member

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    Cleveland is 2-1 with another to go. Not sure of the tie breakers after that. So have the tie breaker for now but not sure.

    Was an absolute blow out of the wolves, came out of halftime and just went nuts. Had the lead to 29 before they put the bench in. Who then choked away the lead pretty well. And Simmons and JoJo had to come back to be safe
    Simmons had a triple double before the end of third. He was exceptional.

    So yeah they just absolutely smoked 3 teams straight to the point the starters played a combined 3 minutes in 3 fourth quarters. Tankers is one thing, the wolves another.

    Bench depth is better and Covington is shooting again. Only three tough games left (Denver and cleveland and bucks) all at home.
     
  37. benhogan

    benhogan self-effacing SoSH Member

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    There is a chance the Bucks won't be playing for anything (last game of the season).

    Here are the tiebreaker rules for seed:
    https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2017/4/10/15246620/nba-playoffs-tiebreaker-rules-how-do-work

    Cleveland will end up with a better Eastern Conf record, so they own the tiebreaker.
     
    #1437 benhogan, Mar 24, 2018
    Last edited: Mar 24, 2018
  38. LondonSox

    LondonSox Robert the Deuce SoSH Member

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    8,774
    That's for fantasy basketball dude
    But you are right conference record is the next
     
  39. Bosox1528

    Bosox1528 lurker

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  40. LondonSox

    LondonSox Robert the Deuce SoSH Member

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    Because his shot isn't ready?
     
  41. benhogan

    benhogan self-effacing SoSH Member

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    The positive feedback generated by The Players Tribune article by Kevin Love has probably shed a new light on the challenges professional athletes face. So Markelle might be hands-off for reporters.
    My interest lies in what work NBA front offices do in evaluating high draft picks. What traits/research, if any, did the Celtics pick up on that the Sixers missed?

    Hopefully, reporters will dig around that angle of the story rather than harass Markelle.
     
    #1441 benhogan, Mar 25, 2018
    Last edited: Mar 25, 2018
  42. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    In fairness, I don't want to olap either.
     
  43. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    They already covered it to death and the story probably isn't all that interesting to casual sports fans.
     
  44. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Per the CBA, Markelle is off limits to reporters and not required to do speak with them as the Sixers continue to not have him be a full participant in practice by sitting out a portion of it. The rule is that players are not required to meet with the press unless they are full practice participants. It's about the only thing right with how the Sixers have handled this.
     
  45. Reverend

    Reverend for king and country Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Right--in an ideal world, Fultz would have the choice and not even realize it as the team would shield him from the responsibility of the decision and let his... whatever we're calling this, run its course and then activate him when he says he's ready.

    In a practical sense, that's pretty much impossible. But what we see is consistent with the team trying to approximate that as much as possible. If it's confusing, it's perhaps it's because it's so rare to see people handle things correctly. I personally find it refreshing.
     
  46. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    They'd still have room, but Saric has been a lot better since this post. He's shooting .458/.401/.868 on the year and can pass the ball a bit. He turns 24 in April. It's easy to overlook Dario on a team with so many young assets but he's a valuable piece.
     
  47. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    Embiid out at least the next 2 games.
     
  48. LondonSox

    LondonSox Robert the Deuce SoSH Member

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    Of course he fucking is
     
  49. The Process

    The Process lurker

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    No real reason to rush him. Barring a miracle or collapse we're not winning the title this year. Let him rest and get ready for the playoffs.
     
  50. mostman

    mostman Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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