The Potential WR Crunch

lexrageorge

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Mitchell missed Wednesday's practice with his knee. My assumption is that if Mitchell is hobbled at all, Floyd will get the call.

As for the comparison between Floyd, and Tyms, there's this:

Player A: 3781 career receiving yards, 15.4 y/r, 24 TD's.
Player B: 94 receiving yards, 13.4 y/r, 1 TD.
 

NickEsasky

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It has to come down to Mitchell and Floyd if Amendola is healthy. Amendola becomes your primary PR and there is also the in-game injury factor to consider. If Edelman gets hurt in a game, you can plug in Amendola and not have to adjust the gameplan. Mitchell, Floyd, and Hogan are all redundant on the outside.
 

RedOctober3829

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It has to come down to Mitchell and Floyd if Amendola is healthy. Amendola becomes your primary PR and there is also the in-game injury factor to consider. If Edelman gets hurt in a game, you can plug in Amendola and not have to adjust the gameplan. Mitchell, Floyd, and Hogan are all redundant on the outside.
I want Edelman to be the PR in the playoffs. The time to keep him out of that role is in the regular season to keep away from some of the extra hits that come with being a PR. Come playoff time, I want the best guy back there and that's JE11.

If you're going to deactivate a WR I think it comes down to Amendola or Floyd. Mitchell, if healthy, is a roster lock IMO. Your decision is if you want to have another slot type in Amendola or another outside type in Floyd.
 

Tony C

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I see DA and Floyd both as specialty players right now. DA for kick returns and as a 3rd down weapon. Floyd I see more as a red zone threat who can do things no other WR on the roster can do. They both have great value to the team even though their snaps would be limited. BB always tries to use players that best fits their skills. I don't see either player getting dressed over Mitchel if he is healthy, but if BB values what both DA and Floyd can do to help them win (even 1 play), it is going to be a very tough decision over someone else on the roster. Because I think scoring TD's in the red zone is going to be one of the keys to their playoff success, I see Floyd getting a jersey, but I have no idea over who.
I think this is the simplest Occam's Razor way to put it. It's not so much about 4 or 5 receivers as it is about specific roles. I love DA, but I agree with a subsequent post that I prefer Edelman as the kick returner so that would make DA fungible for the week (if an injury happens, send Chung back there to fair catch or DMac to kick return). So my personal pick would be Floyd active assuming all are healthy. But while this is a really interesting thread, all of us are working with a more than usual lack of information regarding 1) health; 2) offensive game planning; 3) Floyd's comfort with the system. It'd take a lot more info within those 3 categories for me to argue with any conviction for one option over the other.
 

simplyeric

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Can I just confirm: we're talking about active-inactive on a one-game basis, yes?
In that case, it seems like it would based on:
#1 if a player is at 'full' health or hobbled


#8 matchups



#12 maybe TB's preferences, or low-percentage upside.
 

alydar

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It has to come down to Mitchell and Floyd if Amendola is healthy. Amendola becomes your primary PR and there is also the in-game injury factor to consider. If Edelman gets hurt in a game, you can plug in Amendola and not have to adjust the gameplan. Mitchell, Floyd, and Hogan are all redundant on the outside.
I know this line of thinking is prevalent, but I'm not sure how accurate it is. Amendola is just not as good in that role as Edelman, even if he lines up in the same position on the field. Whether that is pure skills or Brady's trust I don't know, but if Edelman isn't out there, it is not like Amendola becomes Brady's new binky. If anything, they DO change the game plan around and the over the middle stuff becomes less emphasized.

On some level, I think Lewis can do a decent-enough Edelman impression in the sense that he forces the defense to stay in their zones (I'm thinking jet sweeps, bubble screens) which is not a role that Amendola has filled well when Edelman is out, but I think the threat of it, even if used only a few times a game, is really important.
 

nothumb

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I want Edelman to be the PR in the playoffs. The time to keep him out of that role is in the regular season to keep away from some of the extra hits that come with being a PR. Come playoff time, I want the best guy back there and that's JE11.

If you're going to deactivate a WR I think it comes down to Amendola or Floyd. Mitchell, if healthy, is a roster lock IMO. Your decision is if you want to have another slot type in Amendola or another outside type in Floyd.
I like putting Edelman back there starting with the AFCCG. We should be big enough favorites in the divisional round that I would still prioritize health over the return upside (assuming Dola is good to go).

I think this will be a game-by-game decision in the playoffs, and I think it's a virtual lock that Floyd is on the field in one of the two AFC games. If I had to guess now, I think he plays over Mitchell this round and then they evaluate depending on injuries and performance going forward. I could see Dola sitting the AFCCG if Floyd looks good, Mitchell is healthy and Jules is returning punts.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Mitchell missed Wednesday's practice with his knee. My assumption is that if Mitchell is hobbled at all, Floyd will get the call.

As for the comparison between Floyd, and Tyms, there's this:

Player A: 3781 career receiving yards, 15.4 y/r, 24 TD's.
Player B: 94 receiving yards, 13.4 y/r, 1 TD.
Yeah, this isn't some flash in the pan guy. First round pick who has produced throughout his career.
 

Saints Rest

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Yeah, this isn't some flash in the pan guy. First round pick who has produced throughout his career.
His stats reminded me of someone. So I did some digging. Donte Stallworth.

First 4 years:
Floyd: 78 G, 248 Rec, 3781 yds, 15.1 ypc, 24 TDs
Donte: 56 G, 195 Rec, 2791 yds, 14.3 ypc, 23 TDs

Donte was a bit smaller (6'-0" vs 6'-2", 200 vs 220)
 

Mugsy's Jock

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I like putting Edelman back there starting with the AFCCG. We should be big enough favorites in the divisional round that I would still prioritize health over the return upside (assuming Dola is good to go).
I agree with this. I also think it's pretty much the opposite of how BB has decided to roll... witness all the starters playing in Week 17, even after the game was safely in hand. He just can't be bothered with considering protecting players or calling any games "easy wins".

But yeah, I'd also let Amendola handle punt returns in the divisional playoff, given the choice.
 

Al Zarilla

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I agree with this. I also think it's pretty much the opposite of how BB has decided to roll... witness all the starters playing in Week 17, even after the game was safely in hand. He just can't be bothered with considering protecting players or calling any games "easy wins".
Remember what he said after Gronk got the arm injury blocking on an extra point try "You tell me who is going to get hurt in a game and I won't play them". Something like that. Still, I held my breath on every Jules punt return that he didn't fair catch.
 

nothumb

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Remember what he said after Gronk got the arm injury blocking on an extra point try "You tell me who is going to get hurt in a game and I won't play them". Something like that. Still, I held my breath on every Jules punt return that he didn't fair catch.
He says this, but he's also shifted JE away from punt duty a lot this year even though I'm pretty sure everyone agrees he's the best PR on the team. So I don't think it's an absolute stance or anything.
 

Super Nomario

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I know this line of thinking is prevalent, but I'm not sure how accurate it is. Amendola is just not as good in that role as Edelman, even if he lines up in the same position on the field. Whether that is pure skills or Brady's trust I don't know, but if Edelman isn't out there, it is not like Amendola becomes Brady's new binky. If anything, they DO change the game plan around and the over the middle stuff becomes less emphasized.
I agree and disagree. Amendola is not Edelman and doesn't have Edelman's suddenness in cuts to beat man coverage. But Amendola's a good run-after-catch player in space and can run the option routes from the slot that are so critical to the New England O. He runs routes where he's supposed to be and effectively uncovers against zone. Hogan's done a little slot stuff in the past but not as much this year; Mitchell and Floyd have pretty much been outside guys only. All three are in their first year in the system, too (and Floyd's only been here a month). You definitely lose something going from Edelman to Amendola, but you don't have to rip up the playbook either.

For everyone wanting to hold Edelman back until the AFCCG returning punts: you approach every playoff game regardless of opponent with your very best.
Edelman's been on something of a pitch count in recent weeks and I wonder if it's because they worry about wear if he has to play receiver and returns punts. Given a choice between Edelman returning kicks and playing 45 snaps and Amendola returning kicks and Edelman playing 70 snaps, I'll take the latter. They can still pick their spots, too - they have that punt return set with two guys back where they have both Edelman and Amendola there for certain situations.
 

RedOctober3829

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I agree and disagree. Amendola is not Edelman and doesn't have Edelman's suddenness in cuts to beat man coverage. But Amendola's a good run-after-catch player in space and can run the option routes from the slot that are so critical to the New England O. He runs routes where he's supposed to be and effectively uncovers against zone. Hogan's done a little slot stuff in the past but not as much this year; Mitchell and Floyd have pretty much been outside guys only. All three are in their first year in the system, too (and Floyd's only been here a month). You definitely lose something going from Edelman to Amendola, but you don't have to rip up the playbook either.


Edelman's been on something of a pitch count in recent weeks and I wonder if it's because they worry about wear if he has to play receiver and returns punts. Given a choice between Edelman returning kicks and playing 45 snaps and Amendola returning kicks and Edelman playing 70 snaps, I'll take the latter. They can still pick their spots, too - they have that punt return set with two guys back where they have both Edelman and Amendola there for certain situations.
I think they've been dialing him back so he's at peak effectiveness for the playoffs. I hope that involves him being the PR. He has uncanny return abilities that could change a game anytime he touches the ball.
 

lambeau

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Curran and Giardi think Amendola is the odd man out, that Edelman will return and Floyd brings too much to the table. When Belichick was waxing poetic about DeAndre Hopkins' hands and catch radius, I thought he might have Floyd in mind, {although he cited Fitzgerald}: "When he's covered, he's not covered." And he seems to be passing the playbook tests.
 
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Haven't finished Wednesday's podcast, but they seemed to think it wouldn't be as painful a nut to crack as those of us here seem to. One of them floated the idea of Lengel but they doubted that. If memory serves, the players named right off the bat were the obvious regulars:

Waddle. Cyrus. Richards. Foster. Brisset.

Two more after that - has BB healthy-scratched Cyrus AND Coleman much? If we can spare Coleman, too, that brings the number down to one. Elandon Roberts?

It's also possible they'll sit Mitchell to give the knee one more week and they do just go with four WRs plus Slater.

Edit typos
 
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Super Nomario

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Two more after that - has BB healthy-scratched Cyrus AND Coleman much? If we can spare Coleman, too, that brings the number down to one. Elandon Roberts?
Jones and Coleman have both been inactive twice: Week 6 vs Cincy and Week 12 vs NYJ. Coleman and Rowe were both inactive Week 5 (Cleveland). So they've had five active CB in 13 / 16 weeks, four active in 3 / 16.

ASIDE: what a weird year. The same 11 DBs have been on the roster all season, with no roster moves. Where's my Ross Ventrone at?

It's also possible they'll sit Mitchell to give the knee one more week and they do just go with four WRs plus Slàter.
This seems likely to me.
 

tims4wins

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Does anyone still want to see Floyd over one of the other guys? I sure as hell don't.

That said Hogan was knocked out with a thigh injury so who knows who will be healthy next week.
 

wilked

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1 catch for 9 yards. 1 tip for int. Another very nearly int. Not the best day
 

lars10

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Also had an OPI that took them out of field goal range.
The replay they showed ...was there anything that looked close to opi?

Edit: that and the Solder hold were calls that seemed to be complete fiction..especially given how often DBs for Houston were shown holding pats receivers.
 

Ed Hillel

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I'm more concerned he and Brady just aren't on the same page, timing-wise. The slants were terrifying. Mitchell is a definite moving forward of he can go, but I think there's some question between Floyd and Amendola. I'd probably go with Amendola because he can at least catch punts if necessary and he knows the system better, but Floyd has higher upside since he can break one deep.
 

kelpapa

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It will be interesting to see the snap break downs. I know he's not running the same routes as Amendola, but it looked like he played a lot more snaps.
 

nothumb

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He was blocking downfield before the ball was out of Brady's hand. Textbook OPI.
it looked more to me like he was trying to push off the DB who was holding him the whole way. there was nobody running into the space behind him for whom he would have been blocking.

as someone who was on the floyd train before the game, it was disappointing overall. but i think also when brady is under siege the way he was last night, he tends to go to his first / most trusted reads only. the near-pick to open the 2nd half was totally on brady - ball should never have been thrown.

so i wouldn't say it's a lock that floyd sits next week. amendola was just as invisible if not more so.
 

5dice

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Viewed from sec 135 last might, not agreat performance by Floyd, but I am not jumping off the bandwagon yet. Bouye and that secondary are great and the overall completion rate was bad. With Hogan out most of the second half, the snap numbers should be taken with a grain of salt re: Amendola. If we get KC, that's another tough defensive backfield.
 

Bowhemian

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Viewed from sec 135 last might, not agreat performance by Floyd, but I am not jumping off the bandwagon yet. Bouye and that secondary are great and the overall completion rate was bad. With Hogan out most of the second half, the snap numbers should be taken with a grain of salt re: Amendola. If we get KC, that's another tough defensive backfield.
Agreed with the HOU secondary. There were several replays that showed just how good the coverage was. Pretty impressive. Now what the Pats need to do going forward is to coach up the receivers to break out of that coverage.
 

heavyde050

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Agreed with the HOU secondary. There were several replays that showed just how good the coverage was. Pretty impressive. Now what the Pats need to do going forward is to coach up the receivers to break out of that coverage.
Some of that coverage was so good it reminded me of Seattle Legion of Boom or the 2004 Pats.
What I mean is that the secondary was great but they got away with a ton of physicality (that the NFL usually flags).
 

Tony C

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it looked more to me like he was trying to push off the DB who was holding him the whole way. there was nobody running into the space behind him for whom he would have been blocking.

as someone who was on the floyd train before the game, it was disappointing overall. but i think also when brady is under siege the way he was last night, he tends to go to his first / most trusted reads only. the near-pick to open the 2nd half was totally on brady - ball should never have been thrown.

so i wouldn't say it's a lock that floyd sits next week. amendola was just as invisible if not more so.
Agree with this both on the specifics (that PI was pretty tacky-tack, and was definitely not about blocking downfield) and the general (not ready to bail on Floyd). Floyd's routes are really hard to judge -- it may have been mostly on Brady (certainly the opener to the 2nd half that was nearly intercepted was on TB) or on Floyd's routes. Impossible for us to tell as so much of this is intricate. I did wonder if on those slants TB wanted/expected Floyd to be running a bit more horizontal to the line of scrimmage rather than slanting up field. Really impossible to know from our vantage point. Whatever the case might be, Floyd was definitely not a stand-out, but Amendola to me was the real disappointment. A lot of discussion pre-game about needing Amendola over Floyd/Mitchell, but he didn't return kicks (or was he out there for one punt?) in deference to Edelman, he was clearly the last WR on the depth chart in re snaps, and what snaps he did take weren't productive -- 1 catch and seemed not to be open (again, hard to tell from the tv).

If Mitchell is still hurt (or if Hogan's thigh is worse than is being reported), I'd sit them next week. But if there are 5 healthy WRs, I stick with Floyd and sit Amendola.
 

BigJimEd

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I thought the OPI was a good obvious call. Not ticky tack at all.

Amendola had a different role.
 

Tony C

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What role was that? per Reiss' post, he had only 3 snaps in the first half. It seems his role was to be there in case of injury to one of the other WRs. That's fine and love him for his ability to do that (and replace Edelman on punt returns, too). But if it comes down to it would rather have Mitchell and Floyd who seem to be part of the rotation even without injuries.
 

BigJimEd

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Yes, as discussed earlier, Amendola can play the slot.
Those other three do not.

Not sure how much of a rotation there would be if all of Hogan, Mitchell and Floyd are healthy.

It comes down to how much redundancy you want at each spot.
 

amarshal2

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Floyd did a good job proving that he should be last on the depth chart if everyone is healthy.

Regardless, if he wants to play again, he needs to spend extra time with Brady working on slant routes.
 

Super Nomario

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What role was that? per Reiss' post, he had only 3 snaps in the first half. It seems his role was to be there in case of injury to one of the other WRs. That's fine and love him for his ability to do that (and replace Edelman on punt returns, too). But if it comes down to it would rather have Mitchell and Floyd who seem to be part of the rotation even without injuries.
I don't know how you can say the bolded re: Floyd, since he hasn't been active yet unless another WR was hurt (Amendola and / or Mitchell).
 

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Brady was asked today on his Monday radio appearance whether the interception on the pass to Floyd was a matter of Floyd not running a crisp route, him leading Floyd too much or a combination of both. Brady said it was all on him, he led Floyd too much. Grain of salt and all that, but I found it interesting.
 

BigSoxFan

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Brady was asked today on his Monday radio appearance whether the interception on the pass to Floyd was a matter of Floyd not running a crisp route, him leading Floyd too much or a combination of both. Brady said it was all on him, he led Floyd too much. Grain of salt and all that, but I found it interesting.
Probably covering for the new guy there. Think they both share the blame on that play.