The Potential WR Crunch

E5 Yaz · Jan 2, 2017

First-world problem

Marciano490 · Jan 2, 2017

Seems like it could be helpful the way teams who can rotate solid d lineman have an advantage. On a long drive, the ability to rotate capable wrs in and out should give them an advantage, especially during or after deep routes.

snowmanny · Jan 2, 2017

Just play them all.

(Note: picture from ITP)
http://insidethepylon.com/film-study/film-study-nfhttp://i809.photobucket.com/albums/zz11/mascho030916/Bills425.pngl/offense-film-study-nfl/2014/09/12/patriots-passing-game-recap-preview-1-2/

Saints Rest · Jan 2, 2017

Edelman and Hogan are locks.

I think Amendola gets the nod as your new full-time PR.

Mitchell at 100% healthy gets the nod over Floyd, I think, which would get you to 4 (not including Slater who is WR in name only), but perhaps Amendola could be seen as a PR (and maybe KR) specialist only, thereby opening a spot for Floyd.

DeJesus Built My Hotrod · Jan 2, 2017

I cannot even comprehend the title of this thread. I am still scarred by Brady throwing to the likes of Brandon Tate, Tiquan Underwood, Bethel Johson and this guy amongst others...

Devizier · Jan 2, 2017

DeJesus Built My Hotrod said:
I cannot even comprehend the title of this thread. I am still scarred by Brady throwing to the likes of Brandon Tate, Tiquan Underwood, Bethel Johson and this guy amongst others...

You could say that 2006 was a *pinkie to mouth* Graves situation?

ilol@u · Jan 2, 2017

I honestly think the best pass efficient lineup for the Patriots is a lineup of:
Malcolm Mitchell on the outside.
Michael Floyd on the other side.
Edelman in the slot.
Bennett at TE.
Dion Lewis at RB.

Omar's Wacky Neighbor · Jan 2, 2017

tims4wins said:
True. This is kind of like the annual "we have too much starting pitching" thread.

Was about to post just that. There are good problems, and then there are GOOD problems.

TomTerrific · Jan 2, 2017

It will be quite interesting to see what they put out there, and how often, for the first playoff game. Floyd's athleticism and size are a given. What we don't know is how much they trust his grasp of what has been called, and what he is expected to do on a contingent basis.

i must admit, the thought of having a big receiver who can slam his way into the end zone, or win jump balls, or do real damage outside the numbers, gives me a warm feeling. It's primitive, I know, but I can't help it.

mulluysavage · Jan 2, 2017

Cut Cyrus Jones

jsinger121 · Jan 2, 2017

mulluysavage said:
Cut Cyrus Jones

2nd round picks don't get cut yr 1.

TheoShmeo · Jan 2, 2017

I look at Edelman and Hogan as locks. Edelman, nothing to talk about, and Hogan has been a regular all year and Brady seems to trust him.

Mitchell has enjoyed uncommon production for a rookie WR in NE and I assume they see him as a potential long term contributor. So I think that he will be part of the playoff equation, too.

That leaves it down to Amendola and Floyd. And as much as Amendola has been incredibly valuable at times, I think that if forced to choose (either roster spot or playing time) I think it's noteworthy that Amendola's use this season was quite limited , even before he went out.

Second, and more importantly, Floyd gives them an element they don't have a lot of. He's tall and physical. As much the TD and block yesterday provided major jollies, that sideline snag was perhaps a more classic example of Floyd as a difference maker and as a unique addition.

That said, the play early on when Brady had to call a TO because Floyd seemed to be in the wrong place provides a counterpoint. Still, I don't they will be able to resist using such a unique weapon.

Edited to add missing words

Kliq · Jan 2, 2017

If Amendola is healthy and good to go I 100 percent expect him to play plenty of snaps. Brady trusts him to go over the middle and make tough catches in crunch time and that is all that needs to be said. If he gets hurt than Floyd sees more snaps. Maybe Mitchell is the odd man out but Amendola would be second only to Edelman as far as who Brady trusts--which is really all that matters.

amarshal2 · Jan 2, 2017

If you can only have 4, and that's probably right, I think a healthy Amendola is the play. He can be the return specialist they sorely need and take 2+ hits a game away from Edelman/e sure Cyrus Jones never sees a playoff punt return. Plus, he knows the entire playbook, he's got absolutely great hands, and Brady really trusts him.

Floyd is just a function of upside. He adds a bit more talent. But he doesn't know the playbook, he's not a punt returner, and he probably doesn't have Brady's trust when it matters most the way Dola does.

That last one is probably the biggest for me. If Brady said privately to go with Floyd over Dola, I would.

Edit: beaten

edoug · Jan 3, 2017

Edited for stupidity.

E5 Yaz · Jan 3, 2017

edoug said:
Amendola is out, Mitchell is doubtful, and Slater is questionable.
http://nesn.com/2016/12/patriots-injury-report-malcolm-mitchell-doubtful-cyrus-jones-among-two-out/

You realize that's for last week's game with the Dolphins ... right?

Papelbon's Poutine · Jan 3, 2017

edoug said:
Amendola is out, Mitchell is doubtful, and Slater is questionable.
http://nesn.com/2016/12/patriots-injury-report-malcolm-mitchell-doubtful-cyrus-jones-among-two-out/

You should check the date on that article.

( . ) ( . ) and (_!_) · Jan 3, 2017

Isn't the answer to which WRs play the same answer that the team uses for every decision.... it depends on the matchups.

Without knowing who the pats are playing yet and what the individual matchups are then it's hard to predict. But if they think Floyds size will win individual matchups or Mitchell's speed or Amendola's route running then that's who will get snaps. I don't think that decision will necessarily be the same for every playoff game.

The activate 4 vs 5 WRs is interesting because some of these guys don't offer special teams value. But we already know the reasoning behind the who gets snaps question.

edoug · Jan 3, 2017

E5 Yaz said:
You realize that's for last week's game with the Dolphins ... right?

Papelbon's Poutine said:
You should check the date on that article.

Yeah, this holiday season has screwed my mental calendar. So I did know the date of the story was the 30th but didn't remember quickly enough that it was for a game 2 days later. It gets worse because I don't think teams give out injury reports for bye weeks. So when I say I edited for stupidity, that pretty much sums it up.

Ale Xander · Jan 3, 2017

Edelman is the only one who's a lock. The other 4 all have a reason to be inactive. But they'll probably all play since I don't know how many routes you're going to send Lengel for, and Floyd and Hogan are good blockers and you need Amen on the PR.

DJnVa · Jan 3, 2017

Ale Xander said:
Edelman is the only one who's a lock. The other 4 all have a reason to be inactive. But they'll probably all play since I don't know how many routes you're going to send Lengel for, and Floyd and Hogan are good blockers and you need Amen on the PR.

What's Hogan's reason to be inactive? He led the NFL in yards/catch. He has a defined and important role in this offense.

dbn · Jan 3, 2017

I wonder if they would consider some sort of a modified 6-man rotation?

(sorry, figured we'd get that joke out of the way quickly)

Ale Xander · Jan 3, 2017

DrewDawg said:
What's Hogan's reason to be inactive? He led the NFL in yards/catch. He has a defined and important role in this offense.

long man with 2 catches a game?

He's just not that productive. Floyd and Mitchell can do the same thing.

Ralphwiggum · Jan 3, 2017

If healthy I think Amendola needs to be active if for no other reason than for insurance if something happens to Edelman. He's really the only guy who can kind of approximate the role Edelman plays in the offense (as well as returning punts).

The decision I think will be Mitchell or Floyd. Tough call but I think I would probably go with Mitchell who was really coming on over the last few weeks of the season over Floyd's one good game of production and what must still be a somewhat limited grasp of the offense overall.

Stitch01 · Jan 3, 2017

I have a bit of a hard time figuring out how to get 5 real WR active on game day when they already are carrying either 4 RBs or 3 TEs depending on how you slot Develin (as well as Slater and Bolden in pure ST roles) Tried to go through the Miami gameday roster and take two active players out, best I got to was sitting Coleman and Roberts (maybe Harmon potentially in that mix as well).

A cursory glance at the snap counts tells us Hogan is not going to be inactive. He's playing like 85-95% of the snaps, he's ahead of every other receiver on the depth chart except possibly Edelman, and he's been playing over Edelman in 2 WR sets of late.

TheoShmeo · Jan 3, 2017

Ralphwiggum said:
If healthy I think Amendola needs to be active if for no other reason than for insurance if something happens to Edelman. He's really the only guy who can kind of approximate the role Edelman plays in the offense (as well as returning punts).

The decision I think will be Mitchell or Floyd. Tough call but I think I would probably go with Mitchell who was really coming on over the last few weeks of the season over Floyd's one good game of production and what must still be a somewhat limited grasp of the offense overall.

I like that insurance and I really like Edelman being out of the PR role.

But perversely, perhaps, that's almost exactly why I would opt for Floyd over Amendola. What I mean is that they already have a guy who is very much like Amendola, only better -- Edelman. They have no WR with the size and physicality of Floyd, and I think adding another kind of useful weapon is more valuable than Edelman insurance for part of one game. And it's also true that Hogan can do a lot of what Edelman and Amendola do. Not that he's the same player, and he in fact has an added dimension of down field play making, but he can also play the slot if need be.

Think back to the WRs they had for the Philly game last year and all of 2006; this is a nice thing to be debating.

Pxer · Jan 3, 2017

The Patriots had a strong cast out there for special teams Sunday. Lots of burners, with Slater sitting.

Agreed that Amendola is not going to sit if he's healthy. You have to have him in for PR, and Hogan is a solid piece of this offense.

The Patriots are going to have the following inactives:
Jacoby Brissett
D.J. Foster
Geneo Grissom (special teams)
Jonathan Jones (special teams)
Brandon King (special teams)
LaAdrian Waddle

They need to sit one more of the following:
Nate Ebner (core special-teamer; unlikely, but possible)
Matt Lengel (the only backup TE; very unlikely)
Barkevious Mingo (occasional LB, core special-teamer; possible)
Justin Richards (not good at defense; probable)

I think they deactivate Richards to allow for 5 WR. I think Floyd is likelier to see run early in the game, but Amendola will be more trusted late in the game in certain sets, where Hogan or Mitchell give way.

Somebody check my math.

jimbobim · Jan 3, 2017

snowmanny said:
Just play them all.

(Note: picture from ITP)
http://insidethepylon.com/film-study/film-study-nfhttp://i809.photobucket.com/albums/zz11/mascho030916/Bills425.pngl/offense-film-study-nfl/2014/09/12/patriots-passing-game-recap-preview-1-2/

+1. I can see them rolling out a 5 WR set and the opposing D panicking and calling a TO b/c they've done it so rarely this year. If I'm McDaniels I want all my options active.

Morgan's Magic Snowplow · Jan 3, 2017

Pxer said:
The Patriots had a strong cast out there for special teams Sunday. Lots of burners, with Slater sitting.

Agreed that Amendola is not going to sit if he's healthy. You have to have him in for PR, and Hogan is a solid piece of this offense.

The Patriots are going to have the following inactives:
Jacoby Brissett
D.J. Foster
Geneo Grissom (special teams)
Jonathan Jones (special teams)
Brandon King (special teams)
LaAdrian Waddle

They need to sit one more of the following:
Nate Ebner (core special-teamer; unlikely, but possible)
Matt Lengel (the only backup TE; very unlikely)
Barkevious Mingo (occasional LB, core special-teamer; possible)
Justin Richards (not good at defense; probable)

I think they deactivate Richards to allow for 5 WR. I think Floyd is likelier to see run early in the game, but Amendola will be more trusted late in the game in certain sets, where Hogan or Mitchell give way.

Somebody check my math.

I can't see Belichick benching so many core special teamers. Guys like J. Jones, Grissom, and King (as well as Ebner, Mingo, Bolden, and Slater) have been active week after week. BB might make one of them inactive during the playoffs. But I don't see him suddenly upsetting the apple cart on special teams completely, given the importance he places on those units in general.

The sure things are Waddle, Foster, and Brissett. Then Belichick has tended to make inactive two DBs, with the recent choices being Richards and Cyrus Jones. That gets you to five. I can maybe see one core special teamer from the group mentioned above being made inactive but I'd be surprised by two.

So I think its basically going to come down to a WR (most likely Floyd or Mitchell) or Lengel. McDaniels clearly likes having the ability to go with two TEs so Lengel seems unlikely.

The bottom line for me is that Floyd or Mitchell is going to sit.

DJnVa · Jan 3, 2017

Ale Xander said:
long man with 2 catches a game?

He's just not that productive. Floyd and Mitchell can do the same thing.

It's not just the catches, it's the threat he provides in running those.

I'm not exactly sure Floyd, who's been here a few weeks can replicate that. And Mitchell averages 12.5 yards/catch. That's a HUGE difference from the 17.9 Hogan averages. So, you'd take Mitchell away from something he's done well and ask him to run a different set of routes?

Morgan's Magic Snowplow · Jan 3, 2017

jimbobim said:
+1. I can see them rolling out a 5 WR set and the opposing D panicking and calling a TO b/c they've done it so rarely this year. If I'm McDaniels I want all my options active.

You can also put White or Bennett out wide if you want to show this look.

BigSoxFan · Jan 3, 2017

I want Floyd active. You can't settle for FGs in the red zone in the playoffs and Floyd has big value there. For me, I would deactivate Lengel for Floyd and roll the dice on Bennett staying healthy. If Bennett were to get injured, I feel we'd see a lot more 3 or 4 WR sets anyways. You can't have an insurance policy for everyone and I'd rather gamble on Bennett's health and Floyd's upside.

Stitch01 · Jan 3, 2017

Yeah King isn't sitting. Its pretty unlikely J Jones or Grissom sit based on special teams snap count.

Just take the gameday roster from Sunday and try and find two more inactives. Roberts, Coleman, and Harmon seem like the inactive options to me.

dbn · Jan 3, 2017

Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
You can also put White or Bennett out wide if you want to show this look.

Just a thought: showing a 5-receiver set with a 5-WR personnel package could, in principle, cause more problems for a given defense. However, that might be a luxury that doesn't justify the additional non-WR inactive.

(I say "in principle" because it would depend on if the given defense is better off with one of their LBs covering White/Bennett or having a 5th CB or a S covering the Patriots 5th WR.)

edit to ask if anyone knows if the Patriots have used a 00 personnel set in the past?

RedOctober3829 · Jan 3, 2017

Stitch01 said:
Yeah King isn't sitting. Its pretty unlikely J Jones or Grissom sir based on special teams snap count.

Just take the gameday roster from Sunday and try and find two more inactives. Roberts, Coleman, and Harmon seem like the options to me.

Coleman would be the one that Floyd takes a 46 man roster spot from. He's hardly played since Rowe was inserted into the lineup.

riboflav · Jan 3, 2017

Pxer said:
The Patriots had a strong cast out there for special teams Sunday. Lots of burners, with Slater sitting.

Agreed that Amendola is not going to sit if he's healthy. You have to have him in for PR, and Hogan is a solid piece of this offense.

The Patriots are going to have the following inactives:
Jacoby Brissett
D.J. Foster
Geneo Grissom (special teams)
Jonathan Jones (special teams)
Brandon King (special teams)
LaAdrian Waddle

They need to sit one more of the following:
Nate Ebner (core special-teamer; unlikely, but possible)
Matt Lengel (the only backup TE; very unlikely)
Barkevious Mingo (occasional LB, core special-teamer; possible)
Justin Richards (not good at defense; probable)

I think they deactivate Richards to allow for 5 WR. I think Floyd is likelier to see run early in the game, but Amendola will be more trusted late in the game in certain sets, where Hogan or Mitchell give way.

Somebody check my math.

J. Jones has been fantastic on special teams of late. Often the first one downfield making important tackles or at least the initial hit and this in addition to his pinning of that punt vs. Baltimore at the one-yard line. Considering this plus who BB is, I highly doubt he's inactive.

Stitch01 · Jan 3, 2017

RedOctober3829 said:
Coleman would be the one that Floyd takes a 46 man roster spot from. He's hardly played since Rowe was inserted into the lineup.

They still need to find one more inactive. The Miami gameday roster had both Mitchell and Amendola inactive so they need to deactivate two players who were active last Sunday to roster 5 WR's.

I'll also say I wont be shocked if Mitchell is the odd man out to start if he's not 100%, Im assuming this knee issue is nothing but cant be sure.

riboflav · Jan 3, 2017

Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
You can also put White or Bennett out wide if you want to show this look.

For the look? Yes. But, there's a big difference asking a LB to cover White, the RB versus a WR like Hogan, Mitchell, or Amendola. Good luck.

Morgan's Magic Snowplow · Jan 3, 2017

riboflav said:
For the look? Yes. But, there's a big difference asking a LB to cover White, the RB versus a WR like Hogan, Mitchell, or Amendola. Good luck.

That makes no sense. If you have five true WR on the field, the defense will have an extra DB out there.

Stitch01 · Jan 3, 2017

Im not worried too much about 5 WR sets. I dont expect the Pats run them much. They're not going to end up with a LB on a WR in those sets as the defense will sub out, part of the reason they use a RB or TE as the 5th "WR" in that set. They like to use motion with White and Bennett to get presnap reads.

For me the assets are Amendola's role in the return game and ability to play multiple roles in the offense if someone gets hurt and Floyd's length and ability in the red zone and on the boundaries.

Super Nomario · Jan 3, 2017

Ale Xander said:
long man with 2 catches a game?

He's just not that productive. Floyd and Mitchell can do the same thing.

It's weird to criticize Hogan for not being productive when he's produced more than Mitchell or Floyd.

Pxer said:
The Patriots had a strong cast out there for special teams Sunday. Lots of burners, with Slater sitting.

Geneo Grissom (special teams)
Jonathan Jones (special teams)
Brandon King (special teams)

They need to sit one more of the following:
Nate Ebner (core special-teamer; unlikely, but possible)
Barkevious Mingo (occasional LB, core special-teamer; possible)

You are nuts. Grissom hasn't been inactive since he was promoted from the practice squad (Week 6). Jones hasn't been inactive all year. King hasn't been inactive all year. Ebner hasn't been inactive all year. Mingo hasn't been inactive all year. None of these guys are sitting: they play key roles on special teams.

Ale Xander · Jan 3, 2017

Super Nomario said:
It's weird to criticize Hogan for not being productive when he's produced more than Mitchell or Floyd.

.

Per snap he is certainly less productive, if you're being unfair as I am and not counting the blocking. I don't think at all that he sits, but that would be the reason; you can replicate him stretching the defense with Mitchell, and Floyd with the blocking.

Stitch01 · Jan 3, 2017

The 2016 Pats are a run heavy offense (5th in the league in run percentage and its only very modestly skewed by the non-Brady quarter season. They were ahead a bunch, but were in past seasons as well and finished toward the bottom in run percentage ).

Anecdotally, Mike Lombardi has said on the BS podcast that the biggest focus leaving the AFCCG game last year was on how Denver just played nickel and dime and the Pats still couldnt run the ball and how they had to run a trick play to try and pick up 4th and 1 late in the game rather than run the ball.

All this is to say Id be surprised if they deactivate Lengel.

Bergs · Jan 3, 2017

Give Floyd another week with Brady in a game. It would take a complete pants-shitting to lose to whatever bunch of clowns come in on Division weekend regardless, and we'd have more data to make the decision against (likely) Pittsburgh/KC in the AFCG,

Super Nomario · Jan 3, 2017

Ale Xander said:
Per snap he is certainly less productive, if you're being unfair as I am and not counting the blocking. I don't think at all that he sits, but that would be the reason; you can replicate him stretching the defense with Mitchell, and Floyd with the blocking.

Per-snap, he is not less productive. Hogan had 680 yards on 832 snaps (0.82 yards per snap). Mitchell had 401 on 539 (0.74), and Floyd had 42 on 67 (0.63) or 488 on 745 (0.66) if you add in his Arizona time. I also don't know why you would assume Mitchell can replace Hogan in terms of stretching the D.

Ale Xander · Jan 3, 2017

I am looking at receptions and TD's.

I don't get the goo goo over Hogan, he's had a couple good games sure.

The Potential WR Crunch

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