The Outfield--What are the options??

MakMan44 · Jun 4, 2014

I think we're stuck hoping they try to turn it around. There doesn't seem to be any FA OF out there, besides maybe Vernon Wells and the trade market is a crap shoot at this point. I think Ben isn't interested in overpaying for what might end up being a marginal upgrade to the OF. I can't blame him for that.

dbn · Jun 4, 2014

According to a recent, brilliant, non-reactionary Edes post they should use all of their draft picks on Thursday on outfielders who can hit, even if they can't field or oven hit super well. (No, I'm not going to link to that craptastic piece of "writing".)

I agree with MM44 that they are kind of stuck with what they've got. The only real option is to trade for an OF rental. They are only 3 games back of the 2nd wild-card spot, so it is tempting to do so, but I'd rather they hang on to the prospects. I'm still enjoying this season, watching X bloom, Bradley field, Ortiz being awesome, the young arms debut, etc., even if they do miss the playoffs.

edit: retraction. Shouldn't read before coffee.

IdiotKicker · Jun 4, 2014

JBJ - The big issue is that he struggles to make contact (150 out of 171 qualified hitters for Z-Contact%), and when he does, it tends to be weak contact (50% GB, 16.4% LD). Unless he is able to make significant adjustments, this is not the profile of a hitter that is going to suddenly see a huge bump in his stats, as his BABIP at .288 is pretty much in line with what you would expect for those rates. We're starting to move past SSS territory, and there's a pretty good chance that what we're seeing from JBJ is pretty close to how he profiles long-term. You could potentially see some BABIP improvement and get him up into the mid .600s for OPS, but I'm not overly optimistic at this point with him. There are plenty of hitters with below-average contact skills who can make it in the majors, but they typically have the power to make up for this that results in a higher BABIP and more HR. I'm not selling JBJ yet, but I think there are major questions that he has shown no signs of answering to this point.

Sizemore - I'm slightly more optimistic about Sizemore improving over the course of the season, as his BABIP is probably a little low given his LD% (.276 vs 18.4%), but I think you're probably looking at a modest bump into the low .700s for OPS even if his power does return somewhat. He doesn't have the power to scare pitchers into walking him more often, and he clearly does not have the defensive value to be an asset from that perspective, even in a corner OF role.

Gomes - Clearly should not be a regular at this point.

So looking at that, I think that the Sox should be looking for options at any of the three OF positions, especially given Victorino's lingering injury problems this year. The problem is that there really is not a lot out there on the OF market in terms of guys who might give you 2-3 WAR and provide a modest upgrade. Most of the guys in that range are either rookies that teams want to hold onto or veterans with long-term big contracts that you probably don't want a part of. You could try going after an Alex Gordon or Jason Heyward, but my guess is that will cost way too much for the production you get, and I don't know if those teams would even be interested in moving guys based on the current standings. I think outside of a megadeal to get a guy like Stanton, we're holding on to what we have, but I don't have a ton of faith in those players improving much.

Puffy · Jun 4, 2014

MakMan44 said:
I think we're stuck hoping they try to turn it around. There doesn't seem to be any FA OF out there, besides maybe Vernon Wells and the trade market is a crap shoot at this point. I think Ben isn't interested in overpaying for what might end up being a marginal upgrade to the OF. I can't blame him for that.

I tend to agree. I'm sure they have been scouring the trade market, but are probably finding limited trading partners, high prices, and no alternatives that would be clear improvements. Denorfia? Mayberry? Ethier? Cody Ross? Tabata? - all the possibilities come with their own baggage.

At this point, I think they have to give Nava a decent chance to hit against RHP and see if they can reassemble the productive Nava/Gomes platoon from last year. I think they just have to keep working with Bradley and give him a chance to adjust and improve. I'm afraid we are probably seeing the best of Sizemore - possibly a .700 OPS LF who can spell CF and RF on occasion. He should be grateful for the injuries and underperformance, which have given him plenty of rope to prove himself.

Even Victorino is no sure bet to be the knight in shining armor. He may be this team's Lowell, in the sense that he has made his big contribution but is declining before our eyes. He's probably another guy, like Gomes, who will eventually be best suited for a platoon.

I don't even know what they would target on the trade market? A LHH corner outfielder? A RHH who can play CF and take pressure off of Bradley? 1 of each?

Harry Hooper · Jun 4, 2014

Did Gabe Kapler do a secret Fenway workout last week after the 2004 commemoration?

nattysez · Jun 4, 2014

Tim Britton wrote about this today.

As I read it, he thinks the Sox are basically going to have to stand pat until later in the season, so they really need Nava to step up.

The first issue is the lack of options, and the second issue is the lack of clear solutions.
Gomes is pretty much Gomes-ing. His overall line is a little lower than it was last year, but he’s been better against lefties, and that’s his job. He’s been fine.
Bradley’s growing pains have been difficult to endure largey because of the surrounding context. If Bradley were breaking in flanked by 2013 Victorino and 2013 Gomes/Daniel Nava, he’s probably a serviceable No. 9 hitter. As is, he’s been a replacement-level player according to Fangraphs.
Grady Sizemore hasn’t been the kind of success Boston was hoping to get, and his revival of hard contact last week appears short-lived. If there were other legitimate options, Sizemore probably isn’t still here.

This all comes down to the mistake of signing Sizemore instead of acquiring someone who could play CF and RF (Rajai Davis, Chris ~~Carter~~ Young, Craig Gentry, etc.). Cherington knew Victorino was coming into the season less than healthy and that JBJ was a performance risk, but rolled the dice with Sizemore anyway. Sizemore's cooked, Vic can't get healthy, JBJ is having exactly the rough start that should've been planned for, and now the Sox are doing things like Hassan in right.

In terms of overall team performance, having better OF play may matter little given how bad the 3-4-5 starting pitching has been, but the illogic of signing Sizemore when there were so many risk factors among the rest of the starting OF group is really disappointing.

Edit: Rudy's right -- I meant Chris Young, not Chris Carter.

dbn · Jun 4, 2014

nattysez said:
Tim Britton wrote about this today.

As I read it, he thinks the Sox are basically going to have to stand pat until later in the season, so they really need Nava to step up.

This all comes down to the mistake of signing Sizemore instead of acquiring someone who could play CF and RF (Rajai Davis, Chris Carter, Craig Gentry, etc.). Cherington knew Victorino was coming into the season less than healthy and that JBJ was a performance risk, but rolled the dice with Sizemore anyway. Sizemore's cooked, Vic can't get healthy, JBJ is having exactly the rough start that should've been planned for, and now the Sox are doing things like Hassan in right.

In terms of overall team performance, having better OF play may matter little given how bad the 3-4-5 starting pitching has been, but the illogic of signing Sizemore when there were so many risk factors among the rest of the starting OF group is really disappointing.

Is there reason to believe that they did not acquire a Davis/Carter/Gentry because they acquired Sizemore? In a vacuum, the Sizemore signing was a great gamble that hasn't paid out as much as hoped but came with little downside.

MakMan44 · Jun 4, 2014

Davis got a 2 year deal, Chris Carter is a worse version of Gomes and Gentry actually had a decent prospect price attached to him (Michael Choice). As you said, Sizemore was the best gamble in terms of acquisition cost for a 5th OF and it just has not panned out.

I think the thing to remember here (and I just edited it in) was that whomever they picked up instead of Sizemore was effectively their 5th OFer. Sure, they may have gotten more playing time because of the platoon in LF but going into the season, they had already planned on having 4 OFers on the 25 man roster, 5 if you include Carp.

Just a bit outside · Jun 4, 2014

Right now they need to start playing Nava. Gomes is a platoon player and needs to stay that way. The trade market is crap and that makes Nava the only choice. Play him and see if he can find his swing.

HillysLastWalk · Jun 4, 2014

dbn said:
According to a recent, brilliant, non-reactionary Edes post they should use all of their draft picks on Thursday on outfielders who can hit, even if they can't field or oven hit super well. (No, I'm not going to link to that craptastic piece of "writing".)

I don't believe that he was serious. I think you focused way too much on the playful intro.

For others, here's the link: http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/37549/issues-in-the-outfield-arent-improving

It was a decent article that basically listed their options as they stand now.

EDIT: Oops, what Papelbon's Poutine said. But it sure would be nice to take a step back before ripping him for 'craptastic' writing here over at SOSH.

Eddie Jurak · Jun 4, 2014

I wonder if they are at all considering giving Cecchini or WMB (when he returns) some time in an OF corner.

smastroyin · Jun 4, 2014

I would let JBJ play out the string no matter what. I guess maybe you could say his confidence is shaken and he needs to get back on track in AAA. That's up to the coaches, but the team this year isn't having the kind of year where you put a priority on it ahead of the development. I have no problem with JBJ being the plan coming into the season or going forward. The Carp/Nava combo has performed probably in the bottom 5% of what you might reasonably expect from them. Just as we all know they probably aren't as good as they were in 2013, they are neither this bad. The biggest problem with the composition of the OF is that without Victorino it is extremely left handed, as we have seen. This was the main reason I wasn't a huge proponent of Sizemore as a fit. But if that's the biggest problem of "the plan" then you are doing ok.

As for what to do going forward. As I said, I would stick with JBJ. Victorino I think you are beholden to wait out because of contract and the fact that he's probably your best outfielder if healthy. Nava isn't going to get any better from the bench, so you have to ship him back to Pawtucket, release him, or tell Farrell to play him against RHP until you make one of the other decisions. Sizemore I think is a guy you hope gets hot and you can flip for something at the deadline. Gomes as a full time LF basically kills your usage of Nava or Carp, so Cherington and Farrell need to get together on that and make the appropriate roster decisions. I'm not a fan of Gomes as a full time guy, but if that's the organizational decision then there is no need to try to wait out Nava and you are stuck with Sizemore as the guy that can play RF when Victorino is injured.

HillysLastWalk · Jun 4, 2014

Eddie Jurak said:
I wonder if they are at all considering giving Cecchini or WMB (when he returns) some time in an OF corner.

Garin Cecchini went 0 for 5 with three strikeouts and made his 9th error yesterday. He went 0 for 5 with three stirkeouts two games ago. His last 10 games he had a slash line of 154/179/333. He's now down to .269.

I love Cecchini's approach as much as the next guy, but I'd say that Garin Cecchini is not an option for this year. At all.

dbn · Jun 4, 2014

Papelbon's Poutine said:
Umm...I'm pretty sure Edes was fooling around with that opening paragraph. It was pretty obviously tongue in cheek. And the article comes to the same conclusions we have here - that they're likely stuck with what they have right now.

HillysLastWalk said:
I don't believe that he was serious. I think you focused way too much on the playful intro.

For others, here's the link: http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/37549/issues-in-the-outfield-arent-improving

It was a decent article that basically listed their options as they stand now.

EDIT: Oops, what Papelbon's Poutine said. But it sure would be nice to take a step back before ripping him for 'craptastic' writing here over at SOSH.

Mea culpa.

Harry Hooper · Jun 4, 2014

Eddie Jurak said:
I wonder if they are at all considering giving Cecchini or WMB (when he returns) some time in an OF corner.

Merloni has been pushing for WMB to get work in the OF corners in AAA.

MakMan44 · Jun 4, 2014

What does Middlebrooks provide that Gomes doesn't? I'm assuming that Middlebrooks wouldn't be any better out in RF.

chrisfont9 · Jun 4, 2014

Should we dismiss Hassan so quickly? Yes, he's looked completely overmatched, but few young players show their true potential in their first turn around the league. We keep tossing aside guys like Brandon Moss, who need time but are real values.

Hassan's minor league numbers show modest power and good on-base. Is he a guy who needs 2-3 years before he can start to slug? Obviously he shouldn't be learning on the ML roster, or not entirely anyway, but I would suggest "Hassan sucks" should be replaced with "Hassan isn't ready".

Plympton91 · Jun 4, 2014

HillysLastWalk said:
Garin Cecchini went 0 for 5 with three strikeouts and made his 9th error yesterday. He went 0 for 5 with three stirkeouts two games ago. His last 10 games he had a slash line of 154/179/333. He's now down to .269.

I love Cecchini's approach as much as the next guy, but I'd say that Garin Cecchini is not an option for this year. At all.

It's not just for this year though, because the lack of talent in the outfield is an organizational problem and, if you look around the league, a leaguewide problem. The reason to keep Cecchini and Middlebrooks at 3B is so that one of them can play there when you let Drew go and put Bogaerts back at shortstop. Maybe they should leave positions that are fixed, fixed, and move talent to places where they don't already have solutions. Currently, there's no one in AAA or AA who projects as a starting outfield. On the other hand, an outfield of Cecchini, Betts, and Middlebrooks in Pawtucket for the second half of the season would be interesting to follow. Don't forget that Gomes is not under contract for next season; Sizemore, thank God, isn't either; and Victorino's contract ends after 2015.

I hope that once Victorino is back, they'll consider platooning him in CF with Bradley to get some pressure off the kid. But, then who plays rightfield against lefthanders, since it's not Nava or Sizemore. Also, if Nava really has lost confidence as Edes says (and thats not just reporter psychobabble -- I wonder how being benched in the playoffs last season affected his confidence? -- then as soon as Carp is healthy he should be the platoon LFer with Gomes. Live with the poor defense to finally see if he can put up . 270 / .350 / .475 with regular playing time and maybe create trade value.

Some of us saw these problems all winter, at least in RF and CF, but were told to go away and stop being negative. The somewhat baffling collapse of both Nava and Carp -- even adjusting for a BABip regression -- was not a problem I expected to have to solve. Though, again, you wonder what effect all the Sizemore stuff was having on their ability to get the consistent at bats necessary to break out of their slumps. With Carp hurt and Nava buried, that seems like water under the bridge at this point though.

Looking through the list of available AAAA players, there doesn't seem to be an option that would allow Nava to go to AAA. Would you try to get Chris Dickerson and use him half time in CF for Bradley, along with more in RF in place of Sizemore? That seems like the only realistic scenario that wouldn't involve trading way to much for a player like David DeJesus or Chris Denorfia.

In thinking about Middlebrooks for the outfield, remember that only half the games are played in Fenway Park. There's probably no reason he couldn't play RF in Yankee Stadium, Camden Yards, or Texas where RF is the short/easy field. Of course, that still leaves you with Nava/Gomes/Carp in LF, but they do that anyway.

On Hassan, he's probably as ready as he's ever going to be in large sample sizes. But, like Nava and Carp, he's picking the worst possible time to go into the deepest and most prolonged slump of his career.

Hee Sox Choi · Jun 4, 2014

How hard is it for Farrell to get the idea of the straight platoon? Nava/Gomes. If I have to watch Gomes hit against another R I'm going to stab myself in the eye with my Kyle Blanks baseball card (whom we should have traded for and cost next-to-nothing).

I watch the A's go straight platoon at C, DH, 1b and a bunch of other positions and it's working great (+118 run diff). It's infuriating to watch dumb line-up and PH decisions being made nightly which should be EASY DECISIONS based on the magic of splits and platoons and MATH.

Puffy · Jun 4, 2014

Harry Hooper said:
Merloni has been pushing for WMB to get work in the OF corners in AAA.

Well, first he would have to get healthy. Then he'd have to become competent in the outfield while, at the same time, proving that he can still hit above .200. It seems like a reach for 2014.

Harry Hooper · Jun 4, 2014

Puffy said:
Well, first he would have to get healthy. Then he'd have to become competent in the outfield while, at the same time, proving that he can still hit above .200. It seems like a reach for 2014.

Yeah, I believe he meant it more as a long-term thing, given what is (and what isn't) coming through the system.

YouDownWithOBP? · Jun 4, 2014

Hee Sox Choi said:
How hard is it for Farrell to get the idea of the straight platoon? Nava/Gomes. If I have to watch Gomes hit against another R I'm going to stab myself in the eye with my Kyle Blanks baseball card (whom we should have traded for and cost next-to-nothing).

I watch the A's go straight platoon at C, DH, 1b and a bunch of other positions and it's working great (+118 run diff). It's infuriating to watch dumb line-up and PH decisions being made nightly which should be EASY DECISIONS based on the magic of splits and platoons and MATH.

I can't imagine Cherington is happy about the overuse of Gomes, especially vrs a RHP with big splits such as Masterson. I often wonder if there are conversations similiar to Moneyball, where Beane was insisting on Hatteberg over Pena to a defiant Arte Howe.

Hee Sox Choi · Jun 4, 2014

YouDownWithOBP? said:
I can't imagine Cherington is happy about the overuse of Gomes, especially vrs a RHP with big splits such as Masterson. I often wonder if there are conversations similiar to Moneyball, where Beane was insisting on Hatteberg over Pena to a defiant Arte Howe.

There has to be, right? Masterson is death on Rs, always has been. This year, it's RIDICULOUS. .867 OPS v L / .603 v R.

Nava went down to AAA and had a .377 OBP vs. Rs and had a REALLY nice AB the other night (~10 pitches). It's not like Nava's year last year was some sort of magic spell. Plus, he's only had 77 ABs this season with a BABIP of .143. I agree he didn't look great but geez, give him another shot (only vs. Rs). He's a much better option v Rs than Gomes. And that ball that bounced on the warning track, who knows, maybe Nava busts his ass and gets to it.

Who will play John Farrell in Moneyball 2?

glennhoffmania · Jun 4, 2014

I'm just throwing this out there, and I'm aware of the sample size issue. But maybe the coaches see or know something we don't and it's causing them to put more stock in these splits:

Gomes vs. RHP: .171/.241/.300

Nava vs. RHP: .154/.267/.308

If that's what the coaches expect going forward and it's not some sort of aberration with Nava then is it really such a crime to play Gomes against righties?

glennhoffmania · Jun 4, 2014

Hee Sox Choi said:
There has to be, right? Masterson is death on Rs, always has been. This year, it's RIDICULOUS. .867 OPS v L / .603 v R.

Nava went down to AAA and had a .377 OBP vs. Rs and had a REALLY nice AB the other night (~10 pitches). It's not like Nava's year last year was some sort of magic spell. Plus, he's only had 77 ABs this season with a BABIP of .143. I agree he didn't look great but geez, give him another shot (only vs. Rs). He's a much better option v Rs than Gomes. And that ball that bounced on the warning track, who knows, maybe Nava busts his ass and gets to it.

Who will play John Farrell in Moneyball 2?

He had a BABIP of .143 because his LD% tanked and his GB% shot up. It wasn't because he was unlucky. His K rate has also gone up to over 22% this season.

smastroyin · Jun 4, 2014

But if they believe that Nava is worse than useless and he should be cut. Seriously, roster spots have value, don't waste them on warm bodies just to have them.

Even when decisions are made that I don't like, I prefer them to be made than to having these wishy washy kind of "wellllll we don't trust him right now, but..." If your manager will not play him, don't put him on the 25 man, or get a new manager.

YouDownWithOBP? · Jun 4, 2014

glennhoffmania said:
I'm just throwing this out there, and I'm aware of the sample size issue. But maybe the coaches see or know something we don't and it's causing them to put more stock in these splits:

Gomes vs. RHP: .171/.241/.300

Nava vs. RHP: .154/.267/.308

If that's what the coaches expect going forward and it's not some sort of aberration with Nava then is it really such a crime to play Gomes against righties?

I agree that there is most likely something going on behind the scenes. It's the only way to explain why Nava has been buried. I just have a hard time believing why he has not been given another chance. 411 OBP vrs righties last year, so he has a bad start in 70 PA's and that's it, he's done? They keep giving Sizemore and JBJ every chance (and yes I'm aware with JBJ its due to his defense) but toss Nava aside?

Puffy · Jun 4, 2014

smastroyin said:
But if they believe that Nava is worse than useless and he should be cut. Seriously, roster spots have value, don't waste them on warm bodies just to have them.

Even when decisions are made that I don't like, I prefer them to be made than to having these wishy washy kind of "wellllll we don't trust him right now, but..." If your manager will not play him, don't put him on the 25 man, or get a new manager.

Exactly. If they think his 2014 stats over 86 plate appearances are equivalent to his true talent level, then he has zero place on this team.

Maybe we need a new thread just to flesh out this Nava stuff. Even acknowledging that last year was probably a peak for him, I would have figured he'd be good for somewhere around his career line, like .260/.360/.400. Apparently, there are some who feel like his true talent level is a .450 OPS. What do we make of it? Is it a slump or not?

E5 Yaz · Jun 4, 2014

Here's the Verducci article that spurred many in the local media to write about similar topics

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb/news/20140603/jacoby-ellsbury-boston-red-sox-outfield/

As you can see by the charts, the Sox outfield isn't just bad ... it's bad at almost impossible levels, particularly considering that it was one of the best in baseball last season.

It's no time to give up on Bradley, of course. But they can't presume that Victorino is going to remain healthy, even when he gets back, and Gomes seems increasingly a specialized hitter.

They have the chips to get a decent play, if available. I'd rather see them go that route than come up with experiments and patchwork solutions.

Nice pic of Ellsbury, btw

glennhoffmania · Jun 4, 2014

smastroyin said:
But if they believe that Nava is worse than useless and he should be cut. Seriously, roster spots have value, don't waste them on warm bodies just to have them.

Even when decisions are made that I don't like, I prefer them to be made than to having these wishy washy kind of "wellllll we don't trust him right now, but..." If your manager will not play him, don't put him on the 25 man, or get a new manager.

YouDownWithOBP? said:
I agree that there is most likely something going on behind the scenes. It's the only way to explain why Nava has been buried. I just have a hard time believing why he has not been given another chance. 411 OBP vrs righties last year, so he has a bad start in 70 PA's and that's it, he's done? They keep giving Sizemore and JBJ every chance (and yes I'm aware with JBJ its due to his defense) but toss Nava aside?

Puffy said:
Exactly. If they think his 2014 stats over 86 plate appearances are equivalent to his true talent level, then he has zero place on this team.

Maybe we need a new thread just to flesh out this Nava stuff. Even acknowledging that last year was probably a peak for him, I would have figured he'd be good for somewhere around his career line, like .260/.360/.400. Apparently, there are some who feel like his true talent level is a .450 OPS. What do we make of it? Is it a slump or not?

I agree. I'm not trying to defend the decision making process. Just trying to come up with a possible explanation.

Doctor G · Jun 4, 2014

Pittsburgh needs a jump start . how bout Tabata for Gomes. Tabata has good numbers against lefties and has hit better on the road than at home. Also 7/21 pinch hitting.

I know Gomes is an intangible force. Time to move on.

Puffy · Jun 4, 2014

glennhoffmania said:
I agree. I'm not trying to defend the decision making process. Just trying to come up with a possible explanation.

Right. It's hard to figure - although it's impossible not to consider that this goes back to last year, when Nava was benched in the playoffs.

If they had concluded by the end of last year that Nava was basically just a flash-in-the pan playing over his head, I don't understand how the offseason played out like it did, with Nava occupying a significant roster spot and Cherington gambling on Sizemore. If they suspected that Nava wasn't a starter anymore, even against righties, how do they not strenghten the OF roster.

It also seems plausible that Farrell is simply still playing some kind of elaborate hunch.

joe dokes · Jun 4, 2014

E5 Yaz said:
Nice pic of Ellsbury, btw

Ellsbury's league average OPS+ would look pertty good about now. :blink:

Hee Sox Choi · Jun 4, 2014

Doctor G said:
Pittsburgh needs a jump start . how bout Tabata for Gomes. Tabata has good numbers against lefties and has hit better on the road than at home. Also 7/21 pinch hitting.

I know Gomes is an intangible force. Time to move on.

Gomes is fine AS LONG AS HE'S ONLY PLAYING VS. Ls (.425 OBP). Gomes >> Tabata. SSS on the PH stats.

Cuzittt · Jun 4, 2014

chrisfont9 said:
Should we dismiss Hassan so quickly? Yes, he's looked completely overmatched, but few young players show their true potential in their first turn around the league. We keep tossing aside guys like Brandon Moss, who need time but are real values.

Of course we should not dismiss Hassan as a future possibility. But he has done nothing in Pawtucket to earn the promotion. He is up because he is on the 40 man roster. Unlike Corey Brown whose overall numbers also suck... but has shown signs of life (and power) recently.

Granite Sox · Jun 4, 2014

Once Napoli comes back this weekend, look for Holt to get some run in the OF...

Plympton91 · Jun 4, 2014

joe dokes said:
Ellsbury's league average OPS+ would look pertty good about now. :blink:

Does OPS+ account for 16 steals in 18 attempts?

Dick Pole Upside said:
Once Napoli comes back this weekend, look for Holt to get some run in the OF...

Probably just in time for his numbers to normalize. I mean, best case scenario, he's what, a .300 / .370 / .380 guy? I guess that gives you Nava's expected OBP, which is useful, assuming he plays at his best case scenario.

IdiotKicker · Jun 4, 2014

Plympton91 said:
Probably just in time for his numbers to normalize. I mean, best case scenario, he's what, a .300 / .370 / .380 guy? I guess that gives you Nava's expected OBP, which is useful, assuming he plays at his best case scenario.

I don't even know if he's that, but keep in mind that we're now dealing with a league where the mean slash line is .250/.316/.391. It doesn't take too much to be above average at this point.

Drek717 · Jun 4, 2014

I would like to see the following approach:
LF - Nava and Gomes platoon with Gomes taking one game out of three against RHP.

RF - Sizemore and Hassan go into a similar platoon + 1/4th setup as LF, but not on the same days. See how Hassan handles a reasonable sample against a beneficial match up (LHP).

CF - Bradley, for now, as there simply isn't a better option and his defense at least is worth something.

Then as guys return from injury do the following:
Napoli - Holt becomes the super-sub getting time in both corners and all four IF positions to keep guys fresh while getting his bat in the lineup. Nava and Sizemore each lose a game a week or so to Holt, Drew comes out against LHP in favor of the Bogaerts/Holt tandem since Holt is managing a crazy reverse split so far.

Carp - Shit or get off the pot time for Nava. If he hasn't started to hit yet he's back down to AAA and likely off the 40 man this winter, with Carp taking over the LH side of the LF platoon again, unless Holt is raking and has taken the job full time from Nava already.

Brentz - Once healthy and back up to game speed the FO assesses Hassan v. Holt as the RH side of a platoon with Sizemore. If Hassan isn't hitting get Brentz up and let him have a go at it in a similar platoon + 1/4 RHP role.

Victorino - At this point Bradley sits against LHP in favor of Victorino in CF with the other platoon guys in the corners. Sizemore is evaluated at this time and if not performing to an acceptable level is let go in favor of Victorino who takes over RF except against the previously mentioned LHP when Sizemore's old platoon guy (Hassan/Brentz) takes over with Vic in CF.

Betts - Not injured but by about mid-July the team should have seen a nice little sample from him against AAA pitching and playing a higher level CF. If he's still shining he comes up and begins taking time from all three OF positions.

Middlebrooks - when he comes back I'd work him out at LF, RF, and DH in AAA with the priority being his bat getting back on track. Given his strong arm and good athleticism I think he could actually play a pretty solid RF even in Fenway. Probably pretty quickly too. If so he can come up as a super-sub and LHP alternative to Brentz/Hassan in RF.

Other than that I'd offer one of the AAA arms up for either Alex Gordon (Royals) or Corey Dickerson (Rockies). A LH bat with a serious split would be fine as it would at least close out the black hole there against RHP, with a straight platoon with Gomes. Then if Vic comes back healthy it's all about Betts v. Bradley for the stretch and that's a battle I'm willing to roll the dice on. But it would need to basically be a straight up deal of one AAA pitcher for one of those two guys. The benefit being that either one is a positive part of the 2015 and 2016 road map without any major long term financial commitments.

Coachster · Jun 4, 2014

Dick Pole Upside said:
Once Napoli comes back this weekend, look for Holt to get some run in the OF...

So when Napoli is back, do we assume Hassan goes back to Pawtucket, or do they dump Nava?

glennhoffmania · Jun 4, 2014

Napoli's return will be a pretty nice bump. You stick him in the 5th spot (or 4th if you move Holt down or bench him) and get one of Holt, Gomes, or Sizemore out of the lineup. The lineup can be adequate when healthy assuming that guys like Pedroia, Ortiz, Drew and one of the OFs can hit as expected. They don't need JBJ or Nava or Gomes to be above average, or even average, if the rest of the roster is doing its job. Victorino is a huge wild card that obviously can't be counted on in the near term, but adding him as well would make people stop stressing about CF and LF as much. My point is, the OF is the easy target right now but there are offensive issues pretty much across the board.

Stitch01 · Jun 4, 2014

Plympton91 said:
Some of us saw these problems all winter, at least in RF and CF, but were told to go away and stop being negative.

What the Sox did was still much better than paying $21MM this year for what's on pace to be 2 WAR with $100MM+ to go in commitments.

Puffy · Jun 4, 2014

Coachster said:
So when Napoli is back, do we assume Hassan goes back to Pawtucket, or do they dump Nava?

They could also send Herrera down and just go with Holt as the utility infielder. That would keep the 5-man outfield rotation in tact that Drek717 outlined above (Nava/Gomes, Bradley, Sizemore/Hassan). It might be worth giving a guy like Hassan a longer look (and later Brentz) with an eye towards the 2015 outfield (with Gomes gone).

glennhoffmania · Jun 4, 2014

Stitch01 said:
What the Sox did was still much better than paying $21MM this year for what's on pace to be 2 WAR with $100MM+ to go in commitments.

Ah, P91 and his I told you so's. Yeah Ellsbury's really tearing shit up in NY. If Boston kept him they'd be running away with the division.

The problem isn't Ellsbury leaving. It's various issues with Pedroia, Napoli, Victorino, Middlebrooks, Buchholz, and Doubront.

nattysez · Jun 4, 2014

6/4 at CLE: Holt 1B, Bogaerts 3B, Pedroia 2B, Ortiz DH, Pierzynski C, Sizemore RF, Drew SS, Nava LF, Bradley Jr. CF, Workman RHP

https://twitter.com/TimBritton/status/474268488752979968

So...why didn't Nava start against Masterson again?

Edit: Unless Gomes is hurt, this makes Farrell's "Gomes is my starting LF" announcement earlier this week indefensible.

Just a bit outside · Jun 4, 2014

nattysez said:
https://twitter.com/TimBritton/status/474268488752979968

So...why didn't Nava start against Masterson again?

Edit: Unless Gomes is hurt, this makes Farrell's "Gomes is my starting LF" announcement earlier this week indefensible.

Maybe the last 2 games reminded him that Gomes can't hit righties.

kieckeredinthehead · Jun 4, 2014

I was in favor of the Sizemore experiment because it offered additional outfield depth to cover the inevitable injuries. But depth is only valuable if the players are actually better than replacement. I don't see any evidence that Sizemore is going to be better than he already is. Maybe he's a great dude, and the clubhouse would revolt if he gets cut. Otherwise, I can't see the Red Sox sticking with him for more than another month. Go with Nava, Gomes, JBJ, and Victorino when he returns, and let Hassan / Holt / Betts get opportunities when there's room.

glennhoffmania · Jun 4, 2014

nattysez said:
https://twitter.com/TimBritton/status/474268488752979968

So...why didn't Nava start against Masterson again?

Edit: Unless Gomes is hurt, this makes Farrell's "Gomes is my starting LF" announcement earlier this week indefensible.

Isn't it better that he makes adjustments instead of stubbornly sticking to earlier decisions that seem to be wrong? Admitting mistakes is better than continuing them, a la Bobby V.

nattysez · Jun 4, 2014

glennhoffmania said:
Isn't it better that he makes adjustments instead of stubbornly sticking to earlier decisions that seem to be wrong? Admitting mistakes is better than continuing them, a la Bobby V.

Yes, fixing a mistake is better than refusing to do so. But I'm concerned about the process here -- how was this bad decision made in the first place? And what intervening event occurred that made Farrell abandon "Gomes is my every day LF?" I hope he's not changing his mind based on the two or three games that have taken place since he made that pronouncement, otherwise his decision-making process is even worse than I thought.

The Outfield--What are the options??

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