The Outfield '15 version

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Rasputin

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Rovin Romine said:
So. . .we're not at the end of spring training yet.  Plus all the spring training stats caveats apply.  
 
Craig has an OBP/SLG of .324/.394.  Not tearing the cover off the ball, but clearly better than his 2014 regular year stats, which perhaps indicates a return to health?  How does he look out there?  
I haven't seen him much, but he looks like he's moving around better and he's stung a few balls.

That said, is not like he is doer mobile at the best of times so who can really tell?
 

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It's all about Nava.
 
The team projects with 4 outfielders: Ramirez, Castillo, Betts, Victorino
Utility: Craig, Holt (I assume Weeks is out, as is Berry)
Catchers: Vazquez, Hannigan
 
Nava is the odd man out - except that he's a left-handed bat. If he makes the team it's only because (in order of probability)
 
Victorino is on DL or traded
Craig is traded
Castillo starts in Pawtucket
 
It's the left-handedness that's interesting here.
 

The X Man Cometh

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So can someone chime in on how Bradley "looks" out there? I see his stats this spring:
33 AB
12 H (nine singles and three doubles
4 BB
5 K
We've heard that he's using a new setup. But is there a noticeable difference besides that? I thought last year he had a hard time identifying breaking stuff. Is he swinging less than he was?
 

pokey_reese

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The X Man Cometh said:
So can someone chime in on how Bradley "looks" out there? I see his stats this spring:
33 AB
12 H (nine singles and three doubles
4 BB
5 K
We've heard that he's using a new setup. But is there a noticeable difference besides that? I thought last year he had a hard time identifying breaking stuff. Is he swinging less than he was?
I've watched a few games (almost all of the televised ones), and listened to/followed the rest. When I have been able to see him, his swing is very notably different, even if his pitch selection isn't. He has a much simpler path to the ball that keeps the bat more level through the zone, so even when he is swinging at breaking balls he is able to make contact. He is also a line drive machine this spring (three more today, bringing his average up to .382), with much less upper cut to it than he showed last year in the majors.
 
Can't say if the results are real (he isn't likely to be a .900 OPS player in the majors), but the adjustments definitely happened, and even if they didn't change his ability to recognize breaking balls, the smaller step and flatter stroke seem to make him more able to get to them when he does swing.
 

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geoduck no quahog said:
It's all about Nava.
 
The team projects with 4 outfielders: Ramirez, Castillo, Betts, Victorino
Utility: Craig, Holt (I assume Weeks is out, as is Berry)
Catchers: Vazquez, Hannigan
 
Nava is the odd man out - except that he's a left-handed bat. If he makes the team it's only because (in order of probability)
 
Victorino is on DL or traded
Craig is traded
Castillo starts in Pawtucket
 
It's the left-handedness that's interesting here.
 
I think it's pretty clear Castillo starts the year in the minors, absent an injury, mostly because they can send him down and he needs regular at-bats. Castillo is likely in the long-term outfield plans for the team post-Victorino, so at a minimum you'd want him to continue to develop and play every day, even if it's in AAA.
 
On Craig, he's been getting a lot of at-bats this spring, but I just don't know where he gets any at-bats once the season starts. Maybe he'll agree to a phantom DL stint simply to get playing time in Pawtucket for a few weeks in April?
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The only wild card with Rusney--which I feel like people are underplaying--is that he turns 28 in June. That's probably not a good enough reason not to send him down if that's the most straightforward way out of the crunch, but it does complicate things. This is not like a normal early-20s prospect: his athletic prime is already in full swing, if not starting to pass, so every day that he spends on anything but the ML roster (assuming he's ready for the ML roster) is peak value down the drain. 
 

charlieoscar

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If Castillo shows that he can play RF better than Craig or Nava, then I would start Ramirez/Betts/Castillo. If Castillo's fielding is (nearly) on a par with Victorino's, then the latter is expendable; however, his health issues and age make it difficult to get much back for him.
 
Craig has more versatility among the group as he has played all three OF positions plus 1B/2B/3B (although his total games at CF/2B/3B are quite limited). If his batting bounces back, he has the most power of the three but he is not an especially good OF (particularly in RF). Would he be willing to be a bench player? Does he need to play every day to keep his bat up to par?
 
The main thing goings for Nava is that he is a left-handed bat, he can fill in at first, he is inexpensive, and he is accustomed to coming off the bench.
 
Ideally, they would have someone young, fast and capable of playing CF on the bench, and a switch hitter wouldn't be bad. But what would they do if there were a long-time injury to their starting CF or RF? Is there a replacement at Triple A?
 
The bench spots must include a catcher, a first baseman, a middle infielder, a third baseman, and an OF capable of playing CF/RF. Also, you want someone with a bit of power, someone who can get a hit, steal a base, left- and right-handed bats. Obviously, one player can fulfill multiple spots; Brock Holt. Frankly, Quintin Berry strikes as the type of bench OF they need but I wouldn't expect that to happen unless Craig was also part of the bench. Hanigan/Berry/Craig/and the best bat they can find?
 

Savin Hillbilly

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charlieoscar said:
The bench spots must include a catcher, a first baseman, a middle infielder, a third baseman, and an OF capable of playing CF/RF. Also, you want someone with a bit of power, someone who can get a hit, steal a base, left- and right-handed bats. Obviously, one player can fulfill multiple spots; Brock Holt. Frankly, Quintin Berry strikes as the type of bench OF they need but I wouldn't expect that to happen unless Craig was also part of the bench. Hanigan/Berry/Craig/and the best bat they can find?
 
If there's one thing they absolutely, positively do not need right now, it's another outfielder, regardless of whether he can steal a base or not. 
 

joe dokes

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jimbobim said:
 
I assume you mean this one from Nicky earlier today ?
 
“The one thing we can’t avoid is that Shane is coming off back surgery, so he’s not 100 percent right now. We said Shane Victorino healthy is our starting right fielder. We haven’t come off that. We’re still in the process of him regaining quickness and running speed. What’s his overall durability and how many games can we plan for?”
We interpret that as meaning there’s a chance Victorino could start on the disabled list, letting him get stronger with minor league at-bats. Victorino might oppose this idea, though.
 
For a bunch of beat writers and media that have been annoyingly persistent in wondering where the 39 y/o DH is, the benefit of the doubt being afforded Vic is so over the top it's unbelievable. Compare Craig and Vic and one has been bussing everywhere doing everything possible to show he's recovered from the foot. With Vic he came out saying all the right things , trying to switch hit again, and so on. Now ,switch hitting has been dropped ,Edes buries the headline in an article late last night that opposing scouts are deeply mistrustful he's healthy and ,yet ,all we've heard all Spring is the 2013 Vic was arguably their best OF. Also completely agree with what someone upthread said i,t's not like Castillo is a 23-24 y/o . He's 27 and while you may want more at bats for him ,ideally, the reality is given the massive health concerns surrounding Vic , Castillo should be in the starting OF. The quotes today from Farrell seem to indicate that "if healthy" qualifier may finally be justifiably be in doubt. 
 
 
 
Assuming Castillo has no setbacks, I think over the weekend we're going to start hearing the team, directly or indirectly, suggesting that Victorino isn't really healthy yet. "Healthy" being defined as "able to play full-time."
 
The only wild card with Rusney--which I feel like people are underplaying--is that he turns 28 in June.
 
Savin's point is a good one. It may not be, in isolation, a reason not to send him to AAA, but I think it increases the "evidence" (for lack of a better word) required to do so.  I'm neither a baseball player nor a doctor, but I have a hard time believing that simply "not hitting left-handed" is a cure for Victorino's broken-down-ness.  Farrell's "it's his job" platitude notwithstanding, I think Victorino has to prove he *can* play, while Castillo has to prove he *can't* in order to get sent out.
 
Compare Craig and Vic and one has been bussing everywhere doing everything possible to show he's recovered from the foot.
 
This is not lost on either management or (especially) teammates, should it come to Farrell "going back on his word." Even last year...while I have no doubt whatsoever that Victorino was unable to play, I'm pretty sure that Craig could have bailed on a shitty, lost season, but just once saying "my foot isn't right yet," but he didn't.  I suspect that earned him some locker room respect from the Pedroias.
 

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charlieoscar said:
If Castillo shows that he can play RF better than Craig or Nava, then I would start Ramirez/Betts/Castillo. If Castillo's fielding is (nearly) on a par with Victorino's, then the latter is expendable; however, his health issues and age make it difficult to get much back for him.
 
Craig has more versatility among the group as he has played all three OF positions plus 1B/2B/3B (although his total games at CF/2B/3B are quite limited). If his batting bounces back, he has the most power of the three but he is not an especially good OF (particularly in RF). Would he be willing to be a bench player? Does he need to play every day to keep his bat up to par?
 
The main thing goings for Nava is that he is a left-handed bat, he can fill in at first, he is inexpensive, and he is accustomed to coming off the bench.
 
Ideally, they would have someone young, fast and capable of playing CF on the bench, and a switch hitter wouldn't be bad. But what would they do if there were a long-time injury to their starting CF or RF? Is there a replacement at Triple A?
 
The bench spots must include a catcher, a first baseman, a middle infielder, a third baseman, and an OF capable of playing CF/RF. Also, you want someone with a bit of power, someone who can get a hit, steal a base, left- and right-handed bats. Obviously, one player can fulfill multiple spots; Brock Holt. Frankly, Quintin Berry strikes as the type of bench OF they need but I wouldn't expect that to happen unless Craig was also part of the bench. Hanigan/Berry/Craig/and the best bat they can find?
 
So...they need to ditch Victorino, Nava, and Holt to add Quintin Berry and a mystery bat in the next couple weeks?  Hope that mystery bat can play the middle infield, since no one else on your list can.
 

charlieoscar

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Savin Hillbilly said:
 
If there's one thing they absolutely, positively do not need right now, it's another outfielder, regardless of whether he can steal a base or not. 
 
I thought I was implying that Victorino and/or Craig could go. If they think Craig can survive as a bench player, then he may be the bat they need off the bench. Then, with Berrry, they don't need Victorino or Nava, so they just need to add a middle infielder. I like Jemile Weeks from what I've seen but he doesn't have much experience at SS. For emergencies, Betts can play 2B, Ramirez, 3B or SS, but they do need someone else.
 

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They barely even need Nava either if they have Holt.  I see Nava as 1B insurance or a PH for Vazquez more than ever being needed in the OF.
There's no need for a good bat on the bench from that 5th OF spot since everyone else can more than handle themselves at the plate depending on how Castillo pans out. 
 

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charlieoscar said:
Craig has more versatility among the group as he has played all three OF positions plus 1B/2B/3B (although his total games at CF/2B/3B are quite limited). If his batting bounces back, he has the most power of the three but he is not an especially good OF (particularly in RF). Would he be willing to be a bench player? Does he need to play every day to keep his bat up to par?
 
 
I don't think counting Craig as a viable backup for 2B/3B/CF is realistic.  Yes, he has played some games there, but that was a few years ago.   The Cardinals decided he didn't have the athleticism to play those positions, and stopped using him there.  He hasn't gotten more athletic since then.  He is an an adequate 1B/LF/RF.  That's it.
 

phenweigh

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EddieYost said:
 
I don't think counting Craig as a viable backup for 2B/3B/CF is realistic.  Yes, he has played some games there, but that was a few years ago.   The Cardinals decided he didn't have the athleticism to play those positions, and stopped using him there.  He hasn't gotten more athletic since then.  He is an an adequate 1B/LF/RF.  That's it.
Agreed on 2B and CF, but 3B doesn't seem unreasonable.  I recall reading before the games started that Craig was going to play some 3B this spring to increase his versatility.  Do the more committed spring training game watchers know if that has been true? 
 

Savin Hillbilly

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phenweigh said:
Agreed on 2B and CF, but 3B doesn't seem unreasonable.  I recall reading before the games started that Craig was going to play some 3B this spring to increase his versatility.  Do the more committed spring training game watchers know if that has been true? 
 
MLB web stats show that Craig has played only LF and 1B in official games. I don't know if he's worked out at third, though.
 
I would think Holt and Hanley would both be ahead of Craig on the 3B depth chart.
 

joe dokes

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Savin Hillbilly said:
 
MLB web stats show that Craig has played only LF and 1B in official games. I don't know if he's worked out at third, though.
 
I would think Holt and Hanley would both be ahead of Craig on the 3B depth chart.
 
Craig began his pro career as a 3b. More games there in the minors than any other position. Last real action there was AA in 2008.  But in a 27 inning game, he would know where to go if asked.
 

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Savin Hillbilly said:
The only wild card with Rusney--which I feel like people are underplaying--is that he turns 28 in June. That's probably not a good enough reason not to send him down if that's the most straightforward way out of the crunch, but it does complicate things. This is not like a normal early-20s prospect: his athletic prime is already in full swing, if not starting to pass, so every day that he spends on anything but the ML roster (assuming he's ready for the ML roster) is peak value down the drain. 
Yeah you don't pay a guy 72.5 million to spend part of his 28 year old season hitting bombs in Pawtucket. When the dust settles, and it will, he's the starting right fielder on this team. 
 

JohntheBaptist

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Yeah you don't pay a guy 72.5 million to spend part of his 28 year old season hitting bombs in Pawtucket. When the dust settles, and it will, he's the starting right fielder on this team. 
 
I agree completely with this. If Castillo starts the year in AAA for any reason other than working back from an injury, I would be completely shocked. That's just not a smart way to run an organization--spend that much cash on a guy and waste parts of his prime to feel through the last days of the veteran with the same position.
 

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I can only speak from watching all the home games. Third base chores have been handled by the two obvious players, Panda & Chiccini with a few innings to Holt and Weeks. Anything else was just fillin' in by pulling guards or defensive tackles.
IN RE Craig: he has not looked bad at 1st base. He' not Nap but more than serviceable. IMO he needs regular ABs to continue to improve his hitting. He is a trooper, as oft cited above, and IMO would quietly go to AAA for 4+ABs a day if assigned.
 

Dahabenzapple2

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JohntheBaptist said:
 
I agree completely with this. If Castillo starts the year in AAA for any reason other than working back from an injury, I would be completely shocked. That's just not a smart way to run an organization--spend that much cash on a guy and waste parts of his prime to feel through the last days of the veteran with the same position.
fwiw, I completely and totally agree with this

Sox are building a team for 2015 and beyond
 

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Savin Hillbilly said:
The only wild card with Rusney--which I feel like people are underplaying--is that he turns 28 in June. That's probably not a good enough reason not to send him down if that's the most straightforward way out of the crunch, but it does complicate things. This is not like a normal early-20s prospect: his athletic prime is already in full swing, if not starting to pass, so every day that he spends on anything but the ML roster (assuming he's ready for the ML roster) is peak value down the drain. 
True, but in the (very) short term, he's unlike most 28 year olds in that he is still sorta making a transition from Serie Nacional and dormancy. A month in AAA wouldn't be a waste. But more than that would.
 

Rasputin

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reggiecleveland said:
So Rusney is not going quietly into the Pawtucket night. Another hr.
 
I think there is pretty much zero chance Castillo goes to Pawtucket at this point. 
 
I can envision a scenario where Victorino gets the start on Opening Day considering it's in Philly and all, but I don't see any way in hell Castillo doesn't play a heck of a lot more.
 

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If Castillo is on the 25 man on OD, is it conceivable we carry 6 OFers and only 4 SP if Kelly starts on DL, instead of an extra reliever for 10 days or so? See what happens, and delay the outfield logjam decision for a few more days?
 

Rasputin

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Rice4HOF said:
If Castillo is on the 25 man on OD, is it conceivable we carry 6 OFers and only 4 SP if Kelly starts on DL, instead of an extra reliever for 10 days or so? See what happens, and delay the outfield logjam decision for a few more days?
 
Most years I would think so, but after Opening Day on the 6th, the Sox have an off day on the 7th, then a game every day from the 8th to 15th. They'll need the fifth starter on the 15th so maybe they can push it back for those nine days, but is that really going to tell them anything?
 

Rice4HOF

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Rasputin said:
 
Most years I would think so, but after Opening Day on the 6th, the Sox have an off day on the 7th, then a game every day from the 8th to 15th. They'll need the fifth starter on the 15th so maybe they can push it back for those nine days, but is that really going to tell them anything?
Yeah, I heard elsewhere that they may go with 4 SPs for the 9 days I guess. It won't tell them anything useful on the ability of the players (see: Grady Sizemore's OD home run last year), but if someone gets injured during that time then "these things have a way of sorting themselves out" as Tito liked to say. If not, then it just delays the decision (trade Craig for pennies on the $? Trade Nava? Release someone?) for a few more days and we haven't gained anything at all.
 

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Something in Finn's chat today made me consider that what drives my opinion is that Craig has more value, more upside if you prefer, for a starting role, while Nava may be of more use in a pure bench role.  But it's kind of a long way to a starting role for your 5th OF when 3 of your first four all have enough positional versatility theoretically to cover all 3 spots.  On the other hand, should an injury befall Papi or Napoli, I think Craig may be a better option than Nava.
 
So with about 2 weeks left in ST, I'm not sure we are anywhere closer to answering the two big OF questions: 
  • Starting RF:  Castillo or Victorino?
  • 5th OF/backup 1B:  Craig or Nava
 

Rovin Romine

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Hmm.  I know many see Craig as an OF piece, but I tend to think of him as a bat, first and foremost.  
 
Right now we've got what looks like an excellent offense, and a lot of positional redundancy/depth (except catcher!) but there are some question marks.  Ortiz's age, Napoli's hips, H-Ram and Panda in a new league, Bett's youth, Pedroia's inevitable head first slide. . .
 
Craig, in this light, seems exceptionally valuable as insurance.  I'd think Craig's value will hold a few weeks into the season.  I'd like to see everyone show that Craig really would be redundant (or more valuable to trade than to play PT.)
 
***
My post probably means Vazquez is out and Craig's headed somewhere for a catcher. 
 

InsideTheParker

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IF both Victorino and Craig were traded (Sox picking up some of their salaries) would people be freaked out with relying on Nava, Holt, and (possibly) JBJ as backup OFs?
 

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InsideTheParker said:
IF both Victorino and Craig were traded (Sox picking up some of their salaries) would people be freaked out with relying on Nava, Holt, and (possibly) JBJ as backup OFs?
No. Have Brentz for "deep depth," too.
 

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InsideTheParker said:
IF both Victorino and Craig were traded (Sox picking up some of their salaries) would people be freaked out with relying on Nava, Holt, and (possibly) JBJ as backup OFs?
 
I'd say that's a perfectly cromulent bench. JBJ can be used in situations where a defensive specialist is called for and Nava can start against certain tough righties. They're all willing to take a bench role as well (and Vic at least seems less than excited about the idea), which I think there's something to be said for.
 

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InsideTheParker said:
IF both Victorino and Craig were traded (Sox picking up some of their salaries) would people be freaked out with relying on Nava, Holt, and (possibly) JBJ as backup OFs?
I wouldn't be totally opposed, but I'd prefer JBJ to be playing near everyday and thus in Pawtucket instead of merely a late inning amazing glove addition. I mean if his bat could ever be rehabilitated, it's not out of the realm that when Papi hangs them up ,maybe after this year or the next, Hanley moves to DHing duties and the Sox take a Royal approach of Mookie JBJ and Castillo in the OF.  I mean that would be some impressive range in the OF. 
 
As for this years OF, for anyone who watched the game today did anyone else seem to think Vic was holding back because A) it's spring training and B)  He's deadly afraid of his own body? There was the arguable playing of the one hop in RF that may conceivably been on purpose because he saw he could get the guy at 2nd if he faked him out and after,  a grounder he hit to the right side of shifted over infield that he seemed to pull up and take several steps to first toward the end instead of one long stride which may have beat the throw given Beckham had to range so far to get to the ball.  
 
Just curious because I'm very pro Ramirez Betts and Castillo as the starting OF and wondered if anyone else had seen it or it was me unfairly ruling against Vic. 
 

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I thought this came across as a very telling quote. Farrell seems to be starting to change the narrative and setting the stage for Rusney in RF instead of Vic. Am I reading too much into one quote?
I think the people who think Vic is the RFer are reading too much into the previous quote.

Farrell said that if Vic is fully healthy and capable, he's the RFer.

He's not fully healthy and capable.

These guys aren't morons. Loyalty to vets only goes so far. Vic might start on Opening Day what with it being in Philly and all, but there is no question in my mind that Castillo is going to get the bulk of the time in right.

But there are reasons to think all of Ramirez/Betts/Castillo are going to need more time off than normal and there's going to be plenty of time for Vic.
 

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If Betts thrives in the leadoff spot, Vic is a nice hybrid 3rd/4th outfielder for this team. Will he put up with 3+ starts a week is the question.
 

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Danny_Darwin said:
 
I'd say that's a perfectly cromulent bench. JBJ can be used in situations where a defensive specialist is called for and Nava can start against certain tough righties. They're all willing to take a bench role as well (and Vic at least seems less than excited about the idea), which I think there's something to be said for.
When is a defensive specialist called for when Castillo and Betts are on the team? And is JBJ on the bench in Boston really a good idea? 
 

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InsideTheParker said:
IF both Victorino and Craig were traded (Sox picking up some of their salaries) would people be freaked out with relying on Nava, Holt, and (possibly) JBJ as backup OFs?
 
I wouldn't be especially happy about it. But I recognize that the players are human, and veterans like Victorino and (stretching the term) Craig are not going to be happy about being relegated to 4th and 5th outfielder roles.
 

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Those three have the look and feel of backup outfielders.   The first two do not.  It would be terrific if Victorino would recognize that his fragility puts him in a position where back-up getting 400AB per year makes the most sense, but I don't think he's ready to admit that yet and thus could be a problem if he's not starting.
 

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JBJ needs at least another half season full time in AAA before he has the "look and feel" of a backup outfielder and I imagine he still won't have that look and feel to other teams.  He'll be given another shot starting somewhere else before he becomes a full time bench guy.
 

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sean1562 said:
When is a defensive specialist called for when Castillo and Betts are on the team? And is JBJ on the bench in Boston really a good idea? 
I mean, we don't really have a lot of data around how good those two will be defensively at this point. Betts hasn't even been an outfielder for a calendar year, for instance. We assume they'll both be good and they certainly pass the eye test, but it isn't automatic that they'll be great defensively. At any rate, my original thought was that JBJ would replace Hanley in those situations.
 

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Danny_Darwin said:
I mean, we don't really have a lot of data around how good those two will be defensively at this point. Betts hasn't even been an outfielder for a calendar year, for instance. We assume they'll both be good and they certainly pass the eye test, but it isn't automatic that they'll be great defensively. At any rate, my original thought was that JBJ would replace Hanley in those situations.
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=knPJVNbOcDo
 

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Abes changing his tune a bit and Vic acting a bit petulantly if you ask me
 
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/03/30/predicting-red-sox-roster-version/5N8zJLDV09KJOQ9KSq4lIN/story.html
 
Explanation: There’s a chance the Red Sox put Victorino on the DL, too. But he’s not going to accept that willingly. Victorino and Rusney Castillo could make for an effective tandem, even though both are righthanded hitters.
 
  The Sox have been showcasing Allen Craig and surely hope to find a trade partner before Saturday. If not, this becomes a sticky situation. Castillo is 27 and doesn’t belong in Triple A.
 

soxhop411

news aggravator
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2009
46,277
@MikeSilvermanBB: Red Sox will use all time they have to decide between Victorino and Castillo in RF. But if Victorino is healthy, he's starting RF.
 

JohntheBaptist

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
11,399
Yoknapatawpha County
I know so much of that can be stretched to mean any number of things--that they'll really be splitting time, that they're going to trade Vic, that they're going to let Vic run himself out there so its clear to everyone why Castillo should start.
 
But taking that quote at face value, I find it infuriating. Just on principle alone--you sign a guy essentially starting with his age 27 season and you're going to sit him down? Given the investment they made the comfort they seem to have with not maximizing what is likely to be one of his more valuable years to the team is just confusing me at this point.
 
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