The Outfield '15 version
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Brian MacPherson @brianmacp 4m4 minutes ago
Farrell: Rusney Castillo "much improved" and "better than anticipated" when he showed up today.
Farrell: Rusney Castillo "much improved" and "better than anticipated" when he showed up today.
LahoudOrBillyC said:
It's a fair point that you make, although I think the main problem here is the clarity of my post. It is interesting that it went from "strangely, this is a best case scenario" to "having all the outfielders healthy is a worst case scenario".
It's not important to parse the words of my post, but basically I was polishing a turd. My main contention was that the injury may give the Sox a better opportunity and bigger window to maximize the value of MLB assets under contract. Red(s)Hawksfan pointed out that my assumptions were not correct regarding the 40 man.
My point was that,In the end, there could be a silver lining here. For example, another OF injury on another team, together with Victorino being healthy and looking great during spring resulting in a trade for a useful bullpen arm.
To highlight the difference, if Victorino were to be hurt in spring training that might be worse. It would just kick the can down the line for whenever he comes back from the injury. We know Castillo is the future. Having him out doesn't muddy the waters as much as another injury (i.e. Victorino, Craig)
Either way, many posters have called out the flaws in my logic in the post in question that LahoudorBillyC called out. His points are good as were Red(s)HawksFan's. We should return the thread to its regularly sched......
soxhop411 said:
So, yeah. This is kind of what I meant. Then again, is the injury to Castillo make the Sox less likely to deal that surplus? The serpent eats its own tail.
Edit: and I should say that this part of LahoudorBillyC's post is on the money.
nattysez said:
Except that Nava is useful as a platoon player going forward, and all of their outfielders are LHH/SW — except Pence. I guess they could deal him again when Pence is healthy.
But more fundamentally: they just won a World Series with their fourth outfielder starting in place of an injured Pagan, so I'm not so sure they're making a move.
From Buster Olney Blog (Insiders only) re: injury to Hunter Pence
"...The Red Sox and Giants could find common ground with Boston’s many pieces of potential surplus, whether it be Allen Craig, who could theoretically give San Francisco some depth in left field, or right, or third base or first. Shane Victorino might be an interesting fit, given that he’s under contract for only one more year. Maybe the switch-hitting Daniel Nava could be interesting to the Giants."
"...The Red Sox and Giants could find common ground with Boston’s many pieces of potential surplus, whether it be Allen Craig, who could theoretically give San Francisco some depth in left field, or right, or third base or first. Shane Victorino might be an interesting fit, given that he’s under contract for only one more year. Maybe the switch-hitting Daniel Nava could be interesting to the Giants."
I'm kind of surprised writers are even speculating on this. The Giants have Gregor Blanco, who is a pretty damn good backup. They will be perfectly fine for a month without making a trade.
Well, they're saying 6 - 8 weeks. Pence is one of their best hitters, especially since losing Sandoval. Blanco will play a lot, but his lifetime OPS is less than .700. They can bring up Gary Brown or Juan Perez, but their outfield will be pretty weak hitting. Pagan has to stay healthy this year or it could be a disaster. It is an odd year though and they don't do well in those anyway.Pilgrim said:
Al Zarilla said:Well, they're saying 6 - 8 weeks. Pence is one of their best hitters, especially since losing Sandoval. Blanco will play a lot, but his lifetime OPS is less than .700. They can bring up Gary Brown or Juan Perez, but their outfield will be pretty weak hitting. Pagan has to stay healthy this year or it could be a disaster. It is an odd year though and they don't do well in those anyway.
6-8 weeks, four of which is still spring training, so he's looking at only missing 3-4 weeks of the regular season. Barring further injuries, the Giants can probably get by with Blanco as the starter in RF for a few weeks and not fall hopelessly out of the NL West race.
Didn't see this posted anywhere -- Bradford's good news today that Rusney is feeling better such that "It isn’t believed that Castillo’s left oblique strain will keep him out long enough to dent his chance at earning a spot in the outfield." Nonetheless, he writes Castillo may be headed to Pawtucket given the surplus of OFers.
http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2015/03/05/rusney-castillo-trip-to-minors-wouldnt-alter-plan-attitude-or-perspective/
Rusney to his credit is taking that possibility in stride.
Re the question elsewhere about how many regular season ABs does Craig get to show the world he's back, I think the answer is (in the absence of an extended injury or 2) "not many" and "not enough." Thus I would be surprised if the Sox wouldn't move Craig now for the proverbial bag of balls to any team (except maybe the Jays) who would take him and his contract. This may be a tough pill for BC to swallow at this point given Craig's relatively recent high profile acquisition, but a lot has happened re our OF since July 31/14.
http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2015/03/05/rusney-castillo-trip-to-minors-wouldnt-alter-plan-attitude-or-perspective/
Rusney to his credit is taking that possibility in stride.
Re the question elsewhere about how many regular season ABs does Craig get to show the world he's back, I think the answer is (in the absence of an extended injury or 2) "not many" and "not enough." Thus I would be surprised if the Sox wouldn't move Craig now for the proverbial bag of balls to any team (except maybe the Jays) who would take him and his contract. This may be a tough pill for BC to swallow at this point given Craig's relatively recent high profile acquisition, but a lot has happened re our OF since July 31/14.
RE: Craig. I would think that for accomplished professional scouts, there must be some obvious (to them) elements to Craig's swing last year that showed that, for whatever reason, he was not the same hitter in 2014 as he had been pre-injury. Perhaps it was the way he turned on an inside fastball, perhaps it was his ability to drive a pitch the opposite way, whatever it is, I would imagine that he could show in fairly limited AB's if that had changed.
This is not like a pitcher (or a Grady Sizemore) needing to prove that he can remain healthy. This is not like a JBJ or an Iglesias having to prove that he can do something over the long haul that he has not previously shown the ability to do. Both of those sorts of situation need large sample sizes to prove that results are not fluky. For Craig, it seems to be more about proving that he once again has the skills he had once had (or not).
I think that as soon as Craig can show some quality AB's, or more precisely, quality swings, against legit MLB pitching, (or not) his stock will be set.
This is not like a pitcher (or a Grady Sizemore) needing to prove that he can remain healthy. This is not like a JBJ or an Iglesias having to prove that he can do something over the long haul that he has not previously shown the ability to do. Both of those sorts of situation need large sample sizes to prove that results are not fluky. For Craig, it seems to be more about proving that he once again has the skills he had once had (or not).
I think that as soon as Craig can show some quality AB's, or more precisely, quality swings, against legit MLB pitching, (or not) his stock will be set.
KillerBs said:
Sounds like maybe next week at the earliest for Rusney to get back; he's just starting to hit off a t. Looks like maybe 30 to 35 at bats tops to try to nudge his way onto the roster, which is a bit of a tough position to put a guy in. It will be interesting to see how he does with it. If it goes much longer than early to mid week next week, you almost wonder if maybe they just let him know that he's going to start the year in Pawtucket to take a bit of the pressure off in his abbreviated spring training.
http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2015/03/mookie_betts_vs_rusney_castill.html
The two years prior to getting hurt (2012, 2013) Craig had .876 and .830 OPS. Last season he was at .593. So far this spring, he has .803 OPS (24 AB: Small Sample Size) which is at least encouraging that he might be closer to the pre-injury version than what we saw last year. At the same time his strikeout rate increased from roughly 20% pre-injury to 25% last year and 30% this spring which might be cause for continued concern. Seems logically that teams would be looking to see a few more AB's before making a decision..
Rudy Pemberton said:
I think most people felt pretty excited about Bogaerts last year, and I think most people still think it would be a great move to lock him up long term for cheap if you can. Given that his agent is Boras, that seems unlikely, though. But would you really be against...I don't know, a 7 year, $40M contract for Bogaerts (setting aside how likely he would be to sign it).
EDIT: Just as a note, I have no idea what an even remotely plausible number would be for an extension of this type.
Rudy Pemberton said:
No. The article literally states that an argument could be made that this is the young player they've felt most confident about. That's the point that's being made. What was confusing about that?
The last time the Red Sox had a group of young players come forth that created a positional logjam was in the mid-1970s. In late spring of 1974 (just before Opening Day) Dick O'Connell released Orlando Cepeda (one of their best hitters in 1973) and Luis Aparicio (their starting shortstop). This was a tremendous shock to everyone, but intended to make the managers job easier. These moves ultimately paved the way for guys like Rick Burleson, Cecil Cooper, Jim Rice to get playing time. It was a ballsy move.
A few weeks ago I expected that Victorino would be the starting RF because I thought he would be the best player. If it turns out that he is not as good a baseball player as Castillo, I hope they would make the ballsy move if necessary.
A few weeks ago I expected that Victorino would be the starting RF because I thought he would be the best player. If it turns out that he is not as good a baseball player as Castillo, I hope they would make the ballsy move if necessary.
Now that Victorino has given up on switch-hitting and will only bat from the right side going forward, this pretty much seals the deal for a full-time outfield of Hanley, Betts and Castillo. Victorino and/or Nava can back up. Or either can be traded at the right time.
I was about to suggest the might go with one fewer pitcher and keep all of Victorino, Craig, and Nava, but there's not as many off days as one might think.Pumpsie said:
I think it really comes down to Craig. If he shows them enough, I think getting rid of Nava is a relatively easy decision. I just don't know exactly what "enough" means.
Rasputin said:
I don't know. I think they have to keep the left-handed bat if Victorino is not switch-hitting.
But the guy that has hit RHP better over the last 3 seasons is Nava.Rasputin said:
Nava 300/391/437 in 824 ABs
Craig 277/341/408 in 1065 ABs
Nava is also cheaper and has a better glove.
If we can stash Craig at AAA and get him consistent ABs, maybe thats the best option.
I see your dislike for Nava has continued on, you were by far the most vocal in the "anti-Nava/pro-Sizemore" camp last season.
benhogan said:
Well, like he said, it depends what you make of Craig's 2014, which drags down his 3-year average considerably. If you chalk it up to injury and assume that Craig is closer to the 2013 version, then Craig is the better hitter. But of course, that's a big assumption to make. Nava certainly seems like the surer bet at this point, but Craig's got that tantalizing upside (and the horrifying downside). I agree that if they could get away with stashing Craig in AAA, that would be great. Often a team can't get away with sending an All-Star down to AAA after a bad season, but that was one hell of a bad season.
The last three years includes Nava's 2012 and Craig's 2014.benhogan said:
Nava's glove may be better in left, but not at first.
I'm not anti Nava in the slightest, but he's a guy with one skill and a little positional flexibility on the easy end of the defensive spectrum.
I think you mean Nava's 2013 season, that was the year he OPS'd .895 vs. RHP.Rasputin said:
In '12 he was .801 vs. RHP.
One other small item is Nava's ability to come off the bench and play that role. We're not sure how well Craig will take to inconsistent playing time.
Craig isn't going to AAA. It would be a great move if this was Out of the Park Baseball, but it will irreparably damage the team's reputation with the living, breathing version of Allen Craig, and if your reasoning for sending him down is because you want him to be your starting 1B in 2016, why would you piss him off in order to accomplish this? While I agree with the general wisdom that says that a Ramirez-Betts-Castillo outfield (with Nava and Bradley on the bench) would be optimal, it seems like Castillo is probably going to wind up as the odd man out to start the year, which seems defensible to me. Victorino will be injured or a team will offer an acceptable return for Craig soon enough.
I should note that I also don't think Craig's 2016 upside is not so great as to be worth getting bent out of shape over if he winds up elsewhere.
I should note that I also don't think Craig's 2016 upside is not so great as to be worth getting bent out of shape over if he winds up elsewhere.
You're making an assumption that isn't necessarily warranted. I'm sure Craig knows he sucked last year. It's entirely possible he won't get pissed off because he understands.Danny_Darwin said:
For another thing, even if he does get pissed off, what the hell is he going to do?
Rasputin said:
My assumption is no less warranted than the one that he'd be okay with it. As for your question, he could deliberately play like garbage. Nobody would even be able to tell.
If Craig doesn't want to be in AAA, the worst thing he can do for himself is to deliberately play like garbage. It is in his best interest to suck it up, play to the best of his abilities, and play his way out of Pawtucket. If he can't, he can't, but if he can, he'll either find himself back with the big club in short order or traded somewhere else where he can get MLB playing time.Danny_Darwin said:
And how would intentionally playing like garbage help his long term value and interest? If he wants to play in the MLB again, deliberately sucking would be a weird way going about it.
Danny_Darwin said:
Its not all that different than the Cubs' situation with Bryant. The kid is being kept down for service time reasons, which kinda sucks for him, but I don't think anyone suspects that he's going to deliberately play like garbage. The only way that Craig benefits from sucking is if he gets DFA'd and then picked up by another team, which is a much bigger gamble than just playing well, proving he's good and forcing a call-up or trade.
I guess we shouldn't really read too much into spring training line-ups, but Betts in CF and Castillo in RF today may be an indication that Betts has won the CF job (not a huge surprise).
No matter what Rusney does the last 2 weeks of spring training, I could see him open up the season in AAA playing RF to get "comfortable" playing a corner slot.
Farrell has Nava and Craig on the bench and waits for the first OF injury, trade, or major underperformance to call up Castillo to play RF and back-up CF.
No matter what Rusney does the last 2 weeks of spring training, I could see him open up the season in AAA playing RF to get "comfortable" playing a corner slot.
Farrell has Nava and Craig on the bench and waits for the first OF injury, trade, or major underperformance to call up Castillo to play RF and back-up CF.
Have we read a single negative statement about Betts this spring, from anyone? Even something along the lines of, "He needs to get better jumps on the ball"...? He killed it on his recall last year. He's killing it in the games so far. Everyone talks glowingly of his attitude and professionalism.
By all appearances, this guy has made the team, and if he's on the team, he's playing everyday. He and Hanley are the lead dominoes in the OF equation right now. Everything else falls after those two.
By all appearances, this guy has made the team, and if he's on the team, he's playing everyday. He and Hanley are the lead dominoes in the OF equation right now. Everything else falls after those two.
There is no question that Betts is going to be the starting CF. I don't know anything that has been reported that has stated he is even competing for a position.
Castillo looked like the favorite in CF when they opened camp.RedOctober3829 said:
This is an article a month ago that I found on Page 4 of this thread.
http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/41826/fight-for-cf-job-looks-like-a-three-for-all
My point was that for the last couple weeks he had been doing so well that the competition was over. You combine that with Castillo's injury and Betts is the clear choice in CF.benhogan said:
If Castillo is ready for opening day, his injury is irrelevant and if he isn't, is only elegant until he gets back.RedOctober3829 said:
I think we can pretty safely say three things.
1) Mookie Betts is going to be in the starting lineup.
2) The decision on who plays center and who plays right is going to be based on the defensive abilities of Castillo and Betts.
3) The difference between the two alignments is pretty small.
So is this generally what we are looking at, for this very moment?
Opening Day
Hanley in Left, Mookie in Center, Vic in Right
Craig and Nava on Bench
Castillo and JBJ in AAA
What situations would call for Craig or Nava to start certain games over Vic?
When Castillo is deemed healthy enough and has gotten "enough" reps in, are we looking at an auto call up?
Does he need to perform really well to get that call up?
Does he need to just not suck ass in a couple AAA games?
Who gets the boot when he does get called up?
Are we then looking at Hanley as the only everyday outfielder or is Mookie included in that category as well?
I'm assuming health across the board for these questions, obviously injuries open things up a bit.
Opening Day
Hanley in Left, Mookie in Center, Vic in Right
Craig and Nava on Bench
Castillo and JBJ in AAA
What situations would call for Craig or Nava to start certain games over Vic?
When Castillo is deemed healthy enough and has gotten "enough" reps in, are we looking at an auto call up?
Does he need to perform really well to get that call up?
Does he need to just not suck ass in a couple AAA games?
Who gets the boot when he does get called up?
Are we then looking at Hanley as the only everyday outfielder or is Mookie included in that category as well?
I'm assuming health across the board for these questions, obviously injuries open things up a bit.
Nava should start over Victorino in rightfield in basically every away game in which the opposing team starts a righthanded pitcher. A healthy Victorino playing Fenway's RF is probably enough to offset the offensive difference in home games. Given Ramirez's injury history, giving him a day off against a RH once every 10 games or so also makes a lot of sense in the plan for keeping Nava fresh.
Once Castillo goes down to AAA, I would think it would take him putting up a 900 OPS for them to call him up absent an injury to one of the other outfielders or a trade. They're not going to squander depth.
Once Castillo goes down to AAA, I would think it would take him putting up a 900 OPS for them to call him up absent an injury to one of the other outfielders or a trade. They're not going to squander depth.
I don't think there is any reasonable scenario where JBJ doesn't end up in AAA. It would take multiple injuries.RoyalOrange said:
I wouldn't be too sure you're going to see Castillo sent down. Maybe they do it just so they can keep everyone, but maybe not.
Rasputin said:
I think Victorino on the DL is more likely than Castillo at AAA.
Unless Castillo has an injury setback, or both he and Betts prove incapable of playing RF, i think he and Betts will be starting on Opening Day. Or, they'll use the NL-park start to keep an extra position player and Victorino will get the ceremonial OD start. The bottom line, as I think the Sox see it, is that Castillo 2015 is both better than Victorino 2015 and a better bet to be able to play starter's minutes.
joe dokes said:
Right, but Victorino isn't currently injured and the season is 2 weeks away. We can keep talking about The Future Victorino Injury, but what are we doing right now while he is healthy? Are you saying maybe a DL stint just to get Castillo on the roster? I just don't see Vic being all hunky-dory with that if he thinks he should be starting and thinks he is healthy enough.
I'm really just wondering if there is any option other than starting Castillo at AAA if Mookie Hanley Vic Craig and Nava are all healthy and members of the Red Sox come Opening Day.
RoyalOrange said:
He officially gave up switch-hitting because swinging left-handed aggravated his hamstring noticably. If his hamstrings are that fragile, he's not exactly 100% healthy. Or perhaps more accurately, he can't exactly be counted on to play everyday. He's JD Drew redux in that respect...apt to be scratched at any moment.
So. . .we're not at the end of spring training yet. Plus all the spring training stats caveats apply.
Craig has an OBP/SLG of .324/.394. Not tearing the cover off the ball, but clearly better than his 2014 regular year stats, which perhaps indicates a return to health? How does he look out there?
Craig has an OBP/SLG of .324/.394. Not tearing the cover off the ball, but clearly better than his 2014 regular year stats, which perhaps indicates a return to health? How does he look out there?
11k's in 33 ABs is pretty underwhelming for someone facing marginal pitching. It's tied for the worst among regulars. I think we were hoping for signs of better bat speed and we haven't seen much evidence of that. Even his home run was oppo. He is making harder contact more consistently though.Rovin Romine said:
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