The Outfield '15 version

[Fishy1]

 
Not picking on you specifically, but there seems to be a lot of chatter here about how an Ortiz retirement would help resolve some of the current roster issues. IMO, Ortiz retiring creates a far bigger problem than anything it might resolve...

 
I think one of the reasons the team was made so deep this year is the even more immediate possibility of Ortiz's baseball demise. We don't like to consider it (I should speak for myself), but the guy is nearly 40, and could fall of the proverbial cliff at any moment. Forget retirement, he just might not be able to catch up to a fastball soon. And boy, as you've said, does this offense look a hell of a lot worse if he's not leading it.
 
That and other injury and age concerns is why I'm not all about the trade scenarios trotted out on the previous page. If Ortiz goes down, we're going to want to shift Craig or Hanley to DH, and in that scenario, Nava's LH bat looks mighty enticing on this roster. As has been already said, these things tend to work themselves out, but I think it's even more extreme for this group: in a years time or so, if we find out Ortiz is cooked, and Victorino needs a wheelchair, and Craig needs a wheelchair, or even that Nava has hit his peak and then fallen off the top of it, keeping Bradley, Betts and Castillo around, even if one or two of them doesn't work out, will start to look prudent given what we'd have to pay on the open market, and how awesome their AAV's are. It's nice to capitalize on prospects that go on to fail while they still have value, but you don't get to choose which lottery tickets hit, and I'd rather we kept the ones closest to the majors for now.

 

[Rovin Romine]

We should also ask what the cost a nava/Craig replacement would be. I mean, assuming we winnow the OF down to thee starters plus a legit 4th OF, what would it cost us to get a mid season replacement OF starter, should one of ours go down to injury?

Which is another way of saying that absent a trade for a clear upgrade elsewhere, I don't think we'll be seeing the sox sell low on any of these guys, just to clear up a potential log jam. If they can trade for prospects (which could then be traded later as needed) maybe. Otherwise it comes down to the MiL options.

PS I'm not even sure what that clear upgrade would be? Cost controlled second closer/setup man type? Starting rotation?

 

[mwonow]

We should also ask what the cost a nava/Craig replacement would be. I mean, assuming we winnow the OF down to thee starters plus a legit 4th OF, what would it cost us to get a mid season replacement OF starter, should one of ours go down to injury?

Which is another way of saying that absent a trade for a clear upgrade elsewhere, I don't think we'll be seeing the sox sell low on any of these guys, just to clear up a potential log jam. If they can trade for prospects (which could then be traded later as needed) maybe. Otherwise it comes down to the MiL options.

 
In some of the early ST coverage, it sounded like Farrell was viewing JBJ as the next man up

 

[judyb]

Not picking on you specifically, but there seems to be a lot of chatter here about how an Ortiz retirement would help resolve some of the current roster issues. IMO, Ortiz retiring creates a far bigger problem than anything it might resolve...

I didn't mean to imply Ortiz retiring would be a good thing, it's just something that's likely to happen in the not too distant future whether anyone likes it or not, and that the team should be preparing for to the best of their ability, even if there's no way they could do enough to really be ready for it.

 

[Rovin Romine]

 
In some of the early ST coverage, it sounded like Farrell was viewing JBJ as the next man up

Our of depth, if healthy, is kind of staggering. An OF of Nava (plus platoon)/JBJ/Craig is workable for a lot of clubs. Assuming health/average expected production, of course.

 

[Puffy]

Our of depth, if healthy, is kind of staggering. An OF of Nava (plus platoon)/JBJ/Craig is workable for a lot of clubs. Assuming health/average expected production, of course.

 
Absolutely. This team could weather multiple significant injuries to the starting 9 and still field a respectable lineup. 

 

[phenweigh]

 
OPS+ in those same three seasons...151, 137, 129.  If he can get himself to a 110-115 OPS+, let alone 120 or higher, this season and/or next then it's a steal for the Sox.
 
Daniel Nava and his .706 OPS last year was good for a 100 OPS+...essentially league average.  The bar isn't incredibly high for Craig on this front.

 
A 100 OPS+ bar may not even be high for Nava.  In 2013 his OPS+ was 127.  Daniel's horrible start contributed to his down year and I suspect is unlikely to be repeated.  That's not to say that I think his true talent level is a 127 OPS+, but I suspect it's also higher than 100.  His career 109 OPS+ seems like a reasonable guess.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

 
A 100 OPS+ bar may not even be high for Nava.  In 2013 his OPS+ was 127.  Daniel's horrible start contributed to his down year and I suspect is unlikely to be repeated.  That's not to say that I think his true talent level is a 127 OPS+, but I suspect it's also higher than 100.  His career 109 OPS+ seems like a reasonable guess.

 
I was more referring to a ~.700 OPS/100 OPS+ not being a high bar rather than the direct comparison to Nava (Nava just happened to be the guy on the 2014 roster with a 100 OPS+), but I guess it works that way too.  I think there's a chance Nava and Craig both stick, but I'm also firmly off the Victorino will be healthy bandwagon so that might play into it.

 

[phenweigh]

 
I was more referring to a ~.700 OPS/100 OPS+ not being a high bar rather than the direct comparison to Nava (Nava just happened to be the guy on the 2014 roster with a 100 OPS+), but I guess it works that way too.  I think there's a chance Nava and Craig both stick, but I'm also firmly off the Victorino will be healthy bandwagon so that might play into it.

I'm off the everybody will be healthy bandwagon, but it's an interesting possibility to discuss.  The Sox front office should, and I suspect does, have a plan or even a set of plans.  I suspect Plan A is to see what develops in spring training.

 

[Rasputin]

 
Not picking on you specifically, but there seems to be a lot of chatter here about how an Ortiz retirement would help resolve some of the current roster issues. IMO, Ortiz retiring creates a far bigger problem than anything it might resolve...

 
I don't think there is any question that Papi's eventual departure creates a problem, but the man is 39 and the list of players who can still perform at 40 is short. We're going to have to deal with it.
 
Also, having too many players is not a problem.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

Ortiz's eventual departure is why they signed both Hanley and Panda.  It seemed slightly excessive/unnecessary at the time, and it is, if we're just looking at 2015.  But Ben's looking at 2016 and beyond, too.  As we've all discussed, it's pretty easy to see Hanley and Panda slide down or off the defensive spectrum over the next couple of years, with guys like Cecchini, Moncada, Margot, Devers, et al ascending to the big club.
 
And keep in mind that Xander will be OPSing .850+ annually by the time Papi hangs them up, and Swihart will be winning RoY, so we'll be spreading his replacement production around.  Right?? :q:

 

[Plympton91]

I don't think that Ortiz would have signed a three year deal last spring if he planned to retire after 2015. He's a little more than a season away from 500 HR's. There's no way he's retiring for 2016 if he has 493 HR's after this season. And there's also the option for 2017. The man is having fun playing baseball, and despite the drop in batting average last season he's still an elite power hitter. I don't see any reason right now to think he isn't the everyday DH in 2016 as well.

 

[Rasputin]

I don't think that Ortiz would have signed a three year deal last spring if he planned to retire after 2015. He's a little more than a season away from 500 HR's. There's no way he's retiring for 2016 if he has 493 HR's after this season. And there's also the option for 2017. The man is having fun playing baseball, and despite the drop in batting average last season he's still an elite power hitter. I don't see any reason right now to think he isn't the everyday DH in 2016 as well.

2016, sure. 2017 probably, but the man is not young and we'd be morons not to prepare for the end.

 

[Plympton91]

 
OPS+ in those same three seasons...151, 137, 129.  If he can get himself to a 110-115 OPS+, let alone 120 or higher, this season and/or next then it's a steal for the Sox.
 
Daniel Nava and his .706 OPS last year was good for a 100 OPS+...essentially league average.  The bar isn't incredibly high for Craig on this front.

No matter how many times people point out to me the magnitude with which offense has dropped, I simply can't get my arms around it. I have to readjust to evaluating offensive stats the way I did when I was 10 years old again.

 

[ivanvamp]

No matter how many times people point out to me the magnitude with which offense has dropped, I simply can't get my arms around it. I have to readjust to evaluating offensive stats the way I did when I was 10 years old again.

 
I know this has been discussed many times here and nationally, but it would be great to get a real handle on why the offensive numbers have dropped so precipitously.  It feels like it was in the 70s, where a power hitter would be a 25-35 home run guy, and a 46-hr season like Rice had in 1978 would have been extraordinary.  The "steroid era" numbers were video game numbers, dozens of guys hitting 40-50 homers a year, and seemingly half of MLB starters hitting 20+.  
 
Now Cespedes with his 25+ homer potential is a "power hitter" again.
 
When the mound was lowered and raised, at least there was a tangible, definable change that took place that clearly impacted offensive performance.  Is this change due to drug testing?  A bigger strike zone?  A change in the baseball?  A combination of all this?  

 

[The Tax Man]

Ivan, stay tuned for SOSH Central! We've got a great article with some interesting animation that should shed some light on that question.

 

[ivanvamp]

Oh sweet.  Can't wait to read it!

 

[JimD]

2016, sure. 2017 probably, but the man is not young and we'd be morons not to prepare for the end.

 
Agreed.  If Ortiz's 2016 performance makes it a difficult decision for the front office at the end of that season, it's a nice problem to have.  If he gets hurt or otherwise falls off by then, the Sox have options.

 

[reggiecleveland]

Our of depth, if healthy, is kind of staggering. An OF of Nava (plus platoon)/JBJ/Craig is workable for a lot of clubs. Assuming health/average expected production, of course.

 
I can't imagine any team would be happy with that starting 3. The corners guys have big question marks hovering over their bats, and both would be weak defenders. The CF was one of the worst hitters in MLB last year. I could see a team rolling a dice with one of those guys, but there is no way any team would settle for all three. 

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

These things have a way of sorting themselves out, right?

Sean McAdam @Sean_McAdam
Castillo felt something in his left side after his final AB. Unsure of severity but will be examined again in morning.
 
Hopefully nothing but even something minor could set him back just enough to cost him an Opening Day roster spot.

 

[nattysez]

OF glut problem solved.  From Edes:
 
 

Rusney Castillo out indefinitely with strained left oblique
 

 

[mauidano]

Got to talk to Shane Victorino's mom and dad last night. Said he is feeling the best he ever has.  I wanted to say "for the moment..." and we both agreed though that these things DO work themselves out.

 

[Manramsclan]

I agree with nattysez: "problem" solved. (quotes mine)
 
Strangely, this is a best case scenario. Castillo has to rest and rehab and will have a rehab clock start once they think he is ready to be activated. Since he is new to MLB, it won't hurt to get him more ABs at the AAA level while the rest of this sorts itself out.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I agree with nattysez: "problem" solved. (quotes mine)
 
Strangely, this is a best case scenario. Castillo has to rest and rehab and will have a rehab clock start once they think he is ready to be activated. Since he is new to MLB, it won't hurt to get him more ABs at the AAA level while the rest of this sorts itself out.

 
He's got a full compliment of minor league options, so the injury doesn't really open up any opportunities that the team didn't already have at its disposal.

 

[pokey_reese]

 
He's got a full compliment of minor league options, so the injury doesn't really open up any opportunities that the team didn't already have at its disposal.

True, but I think that it's related to the belief that based on his signing details and the way that last year ended, there was almost no way that the team was going to send him down to start the year. This buys more time where they can have him get rehab/extended ST time in the minors without it being a "demotion" from the opening day roster.

 

[Fireball Fred]

Agree w/pokey - injury may allow Sox to make a decision that might have been very difficult (but appropriate) otherwise. New issue, though, is CF behind Betts - can Victorino do it, does JBJ make team?

 

[ItOnceWasMyLife]

So....
 
Hanley, Betts, Victorino
Nava and Craig on the bench with Holt
 
Rusney and JBJ in AAA?
 
To start...

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Agree w/pokey - injury may allow Sox to make a decision that might have been very difficult (but appropriate) otherwise. New issue, though, is CF behind Betts - can Victorino do it, does JBJ make team?

 
I don't think this opens the door for JBJ much at all.  Victorino and Holt are probably the reserve CFs until Castillo is healthy or someone else goes down.

 

[LahoudOrBillyC]

Sorry, but I am going to have to disagree that an injury to our young exciting center fielder is good news.  We are a worse team today than we were yesterday, so I hope he gets healthy soon.

 

[Rasputin]

Sorry, but I am going to have to disagree that an injury to our young exciting center fielder is good news.  We are a worse team today than we were yesterday, so I hope he gets healthy soon.

 
He can easily miss a week and a half and still be ready for opening day so I don't really think there is much to worry about.

 

[Green Monster]

 
He can easily miss a week and a half and still be ready for opening day so I don't really think there is much to worry about.

 
Agreed, especially since he played nearly all winter anyway.

 

[nattysez]

 
He can easily miss a week and a half and still be ready for opening day so I don't really think there is much to worry about.

 
A week and a half is an incredibly optimistic time frame.
 

Three Red Sox outfielders in the last 10 years who strained oblique muscles missed 20 games or more before returning to the lineup -- Trot Nixon (22 games in 2005), Manny Ramirez (24 games in 2007), and Darnell McDonald (22 games in 2012). Three other Red Sox position players missed 13 games or more with an oblique strain -- third baseman Mike Lowell (19 games in 2008), Kevin Youkilis (13 games in 2009) and Marco Scutaro (26 games in 2011). 

In addition, Sox newcomer Hanley Ramirez missed 14 games for the Los Angeles Dodgers last season after going on the disabled list with a strained oblique.
 

 

[DaveRoberts'Shoes]

 
A week and a half is an incredibly optimistic time frame.
 

Agreed - the torque on the obliques from a baseball swing makes this a tough injury to recover from quickly

 

[Manramsclan]

 
He's got a full compliment of minor league options, so the injury doesn't really open up any opportunities that the team didn't already have at its disposal.

 
It buys them time and 40 man space.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

 
It buys them time and 40 man space.

 
Unless he's going on the 60-day DL (which would mean he wouldn't be available until Memorial Day), it saves no space on the 40-man roster.

 

[E5 Yaz]

 
A week and a half is an incredibly optimistic time frame.
 

 
While this is true, another part of Edes' story doesn't seem to make sense:
 

The injury should also put a temporary end to any trade speculation regarding Sox outfielders. The Sox may not have done so anyway, but they clearly cannot part with Betts, who has been mentioned as a possible piece for Phillies pitcher Cole Hamels. Jackie Bradley, who looked like he was ticketed for Pawtucket, now looks like he’ll be kept as a backup if Castillo is not back for the opener, and GM Ben Cherington can defer roster decisions involving Daniel Nava and Allen Craig, only one of whom figures to be on the Opening Day roster if Castillo is healthy.

 
Isn't Brock Holt still available for spot outfield duty? Obviously, this sucks for Castillo, but is trading Bradley, for instance, really out of the question -- since Holt and Victorino could each play centerfield?
 
http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/41949/oblique-history-does-not-bode-well-for-rusney-sox?ex_cid=espnapi_public

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

What it does do is provide increased opportunities for Victorino and Craig showcasing. I still find it hard to conceive of , barring a serious injury, the Sox not trading one of them (or Nava).

 

[KillerBs]

I agree Edes' point about this opening up a spot for JBJ on the 25 man AND deferring any need to move Craig or Nava, makes no sense...unless Holt doesn't go north, which makes no sense.
 
So yes this points towards a Hanley-Craig-Betts-Nava-Vic OF to start the season and a deferral at least of any need to move Craig or Nava or Victorino.
 
Rusney getting hurt certainly isnt good news but I wasnt especially fond of pitting Betts and Rusney (hopefully 2/3 of our future OF for the next 3-4 years at least) directly against one another, with the vets Craig, Vic and Nava lurking, all covetous of or desperate for playing time.
 
I certainly hope they dont bring JBJ north to mostly sit on the bench as a 5th OFer, defensive replacement. Just write him into the PAW lineup everyday for 2-3 months to see if he can still hit at all. If he tears the cover off the ball, he could even be a significant piece to obtain Hamels or Cueto. 

 

[Rasputin]

What it does do is provide increased opportunities for Victorino and Craig showcasing. I still find it hard to conceive of , barring a serious injury, the Sox not trading one of them (or Nava).

 
You've just had people tell you you're looking at a 2-3 week injury and one of them is a doctor whose ability to diagnose injuries just by watching stuff on TV has proven to be disturbingly accurate. I'm gonna defer to them in predicting time tables, and if it's two or three weeks, that's an injury that is serious enough to put opening day in question.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

You've just had people tell you you're looking at a 2-3 week injury and one of them is a doctor whose ability to diagnose injuries just by watching stuff on TV has proven to be disturbingly accurate. I'm gonna defer to them in predicting time tables, and if it's two or three weeks, that's an injury that is serious enough to put opening day in question.

And I'm saying that shouldn't affect their decision to trade an outfielder. If they get an acceptable deal for Craig they should take it. Worrying that Castillo (or any other OF) might miss a week of the regular season shouldn't affect the calculus. Now, if it's looking like a 60 day DL type of injury then it's a different story.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Steve Buckley @BuckinBoston
Farrell on Rusney Castillo to @KeithOlbermann: "Got to get past 1st 10 days to 2 weeks to get full assessment on how and when he'll return"

 

[dbn]

Sorry, but I am going to have to disagree that an injury to our young exciting center fielder is good news.  We are a worse team today than we were yesterday, so I hope he gets healthy soon.

 
 
This.
 
However, I do find myself thinking that - though it certainly sucks - at least it'll give more time/opportunity for the Red Sox (and any potential trade partners*) to evaluate the other OFs.
 
(* this is only a good thing if the potential trade bait(s) play well, of course)

 

[lexrageorge]

I don't believe having Castillo miss his first full Spring Training is a good thing, especially given that those type of injuries tend to linger long after the player returns to the lineup.  
 
Example A of why depth is a good thing.

 

[NDame616]

So Betts slides into CF (not the worst thing to happen) if this lingers. I guess the roster crunch will occur when Castillo is healthy and if Betts earns his roster spot and Victorino is passable (which is I think his ceiling this year) in RF

 

[pockmeister]

So Betts slides into CF (not the worst thing to happen) if this lingers. I guess the roster crunch will occur when Castillo is healthy and if Betts earns his roster spot and Victorino is passable (which is I think his ceiling this year) in RF

 
Assuming that Hanley, Nava, Betts, Craig and Victorino are also all healthy at the same time.  Which doesn't seem too likely a scenario.  
 
The roster challenges will sort themselves out as other players pick up injuries throughout the early season.  There will be plenty of opportunity for a constantly rotating DL of outfielders, and then at some point one or more of them will end up broken for most of the season.  As expected all along, the "too many outfielders" issue will solve itself.  The pleasing thing is that even if a couple of the starters do end up on a long-term DL, the deep depth will go some way to maintaining the quality of the lineup.  
 
It's definitely time to stop worrying about having too many players, and worry more about which of them will be hitting well come the start of the season

 

[lexrageorge]

 
Assuming that Hanley, Nava, Betts, Craig and Victorino are also all healthy at the same time.  Which doesn't seem too likely a scenario.  
 
The roster challenges will sort themselves out as other players pick up injuries throughout the early season.  There will be plenty of opportunity for a constantly rotating DL of outfielders, and then at some point one or more of them will end up broken for most of the season.  As expected all along, the "too many outfielders" issue will solve itself.  The pleasing thing is that even if a couple of the starters do end up on a long-term DL, the deep depth will go some way to maintaining the quality of the lineup.  
 
It's definitely time to stop worrying about having too many players, and worry more about which of them will be hitting well come the start of the season

+1.
 
In the so-called "worst case scenario" where everyone is healthy:  Betts has options.  Castillo has options, Cafardo's bleatings notwithstanding.  They can attempt to pass Craig through optional waivers if they really had to.  Platooning players, even Victorino, is not the end of the world that some sports writers make it out to be.  A temporary logjam is not a good reason to sell low on a player or prospect. 

 

[phenweigh]

+1.
 
In the so-called "worst case scenario" where everyone is healthy:  Betts has options.  Castillo has options, Cafardo's bleatings notwithstanding.  They can attempt to pass Craig through optional waivers if they really had to.  Platooning players, even Victorino, is not the end of the world that some sports writers make it out to be.  A temporary logjam is not a good reason to sell low on a player or prospect. 

 
Has anybody called having all the outfielders healthy a worst case scenario?  It is, however, a scenario that if it does happen, will require a decision.  I completely agree with the bolded sentence, but it is a good reason to explore trading for equal value. 

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

 
Has anybody called having all the outfielders healthy a worst case scenario?  It is, however, a scenario that if it does happen, will require a decision.  I completely agree with the bolded sentence, but it is a good reason to explore trading for equal value. 

 
Perhaps no one has explicitly said having everyone healthy is a worst case scenario, but there's been more than one poster calling Castillo's injury a "best case scenario" which sort of implies having him healthy somehow leaves the team worse off.

 

[phenweigh]

 
Perhaps no one has explicitly said having everyone healthy is a worst case scenario, but there's been more than one poster calling Castillo's injury a "best case scenario" which sort of implies having him healthy somehow leaves the team worse off.

I guess the key being "sort of implies".  Maybe you're right, as I'm not a mind reader, but I suspect that was written in the narrow context of having Betts be the starting CF rather than possibly being sent to AAA.  Having Betts be the starting CF is a defendable position for the Sox being a better team.  Of course there are many fine scenarios where that could come to pass without Castillo being injured.  Even if the words implied it, I suspect no poster really believes Castillo being healthy leaves the team worse. 

 

[LahoudOrBillyC]

Strangely, this is a best case scenario. Castillo has to rest and rehab and will have a rehab clock start once they think he is ready to be activated. Since he is new to MLB, it won't hurt to get him more ABs at the AAA level while the rest of this sorts itself out.

 
This is the kind of thing I reacted to.  In my view, it is not in any way a "best case scenario" that your $72M center fielder who has played less than 50 competitive games in the past two years is hurt.
 
I am not saying this is a disaster, hopefully he gets back in a few weeks and is ready Opening Day.  In other words, it might be "not terrible" or "less than ideal, but we will fight through it."  But it is not a "best case", or even close, in my opinion.