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The offseason heading into 2018

Discussion in 'Red Sox Forum' started by Devizier, Dec 26, 2017.

  1. Sampo Gida

    Sampo Gida lurker

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    4,588
    Primarily DH. 1B and LF depth. Neither Benintendi or Moreland is playing every day. Injuries happen. Maybe you find someone to take on 7-10 million of Hanleys contract. Dont necessarily have to move JBJ plus you save a ton on JDM
     
  2. Papelbon's Poutine

    Papelbon's Poutine Homeland Security SoSH Member

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    So you want to essentially pay $20-23M, plus luxury tax, for Bruce to DH to dump Hanley for the benefit of the marginal upgrade on Moreland and an extra year risk at $13M ? Then sign another 1B. To swap out a player who while injured produced 2 WAR for a guy that produced 2.7 WAR. Yeah, that makes sense.
     
  3. Savin Hillbilly

    Savin Hillbilly loves the secret sauce SoSH Member

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    That's a little over the top. His advanced numbers have been up and down in recent years, at least partly due to injuries, but he was fine this past year. He's not a plus defender anymore, but he's not a downright bad one either, certainly not so bad that you don't get more value out of him in the outfield than as a DH.
     
  4. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    2,808
    As an alternative to re-signing Moreland? Absolutely. In hindsight we should have never moved him off of 1B in the first place.

    Worst case scenario is what, he gets hurt and/or only continues to hit at a similar level to what we can rationally expect out of Moreland? Not a lot of downside risk in that overall imo. Especially factoring in we already had a passable below average hitter replacement in house with Travis, and we probably wouldn't want Hanley's option to vest anyway.

    Based on what, in "In DD we trust" logic? If anything that sounds like a need people have to support whatever decision DD makes getting in the way there. Not vice versa. Plus if one guy there is the *much better* fit for this team and our current hole in the 4 spot of our lineup, it's not Moreland.
     
  5. Sampo Gida

    Sampo Gida lurker

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    4,588
    I disagree. Last year he pulled the ball more and elevated more, but before this he went oppo as much as he pulled. That might help him at Fenway. Had 44 barrells last year which was 3rd among LHBers

    https://www.mlb.com/news/jay-bruce-improves-with-adjustments-analytics/c-262400780

    I think WAR has some heavy middle of the field bias. He did have 2 awful years due to knee issues and hasn't been the same defensively since. Basically been a 2-4 WAR player over much of his career and going forward probably 2 WAR , most of it offensively. Assuming good health. This team needs power and 69 HR over 2 years is fine. Of course if we get JDM then Bruce is irrelevant. Wouldn't want him at 1B or LF everyday, he is more a DH
     
  6. lexrageorge

    lexrageorge Member SoSH Member

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    Hanley couldn't play 1b most of last year.
     
  7. chawson

    chawson Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

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    Bruce has gone yard more, but the difference between the two from 2015-17 is only .005 wOBA (.332 to .327). And Moreland is far better defensively.

    The real reason is likelier that Moreland’s swing is better designed for Fenway. He’s put up a .389 wOBA to the opposite field in that span to Bruce’s .309.
     
  8. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    2,808
    Not necessarily, considering what's likely to be a vast difference in commitment price tags. Not everybody is essentially pro-panic button and go-all-in right now after learning that this current roster makeup couldn't avoid a LT hit this year.

    Generally speaking, it would of been a lot easier to slot Bruce minus Moreland into a going forward budget plan that looked to improve this season, while not essentially writing off any possible chance we might of had to maneuver ourselves back under the LT over the next 2 winters in the process.
     
  9. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

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    Remember when Bruce asked for 6 years and then no one called him?

    Kind of a SSS, but it sure seems like offense isn't costing an arm and a leg, nor unreasonable years this off-season.

    The only mild eyebrow raiser in my mind was Carlos Santana, and it's not like 60 million is a huge extravagance. The Phils could totally afford him too with such a small payroll for a relatively short term.

    Cozart and Bruce are making about the same (Cozart 3/38 and Bruce 3/39)
    Alonso got 2/16. Moreland was cheap.

    Even Upton didn't get a raise from his 22 AAV, just a restructuring and an extra year. Maybe he knew he wouldn't get a lot more on the market.
     
  10. bosockboy

    bosockboy lurker

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    Bruce cost what 2013 Victorino cost. I’m sure Bruce never envisioned his big FA opportunity netting 39 million. Salaries are correcting.
     
  11. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    2,808
    Keep in mind Upton got a full no trade there too though, which as we got reminded this winter can be a pretty big deal.

    Seeing Bruce go at that was really worst case scenario for me personally atm. That should of been the play here if at all possible imo, as DD is going to end up losing either way on JDM. One loss is just going to take longer to completely show itself then the other.
     
  12. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

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    Eh - you thought he'd get way more though.

    I can't believe you are losing sleep over Jay Bruce who was paid about what he was worth. (I had guessed 3/42). Someone paid his for his last season which while pretty good, was his only one since 2013. It was also worse than Morrison and Alonso' The types of prospects needed to acquire a player like him, they can totally afford to part with. Or they can sign Duda for less if you are really that worried about them being cheap.

    But I will bet just about anything they aren't going to settle for a mid level bat and I hope they don't.
     
  13. sean1562

    sean1562 Member SoSH Member

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    I think there can be some disagreement over the value of signing Moreland for 2/13 over Jay Bruce for 3/39, but I don't think DD choosing the former is any sign of incompetence. The difference between the two players is not worth an extra year and 26 million dollars.
     
  14. Papelbon's Poutine

    Papelbon's Poutine Homeland Security SoSH Member

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    Short of any particular persons trade or singing target binkie it will be labeled incompetent.

    Then of course if he does any of those trades or signings it will be labeled incompetent.

    Thus has become the main board.
     
  15. Lowrielicious

    Lowrielicious Member SoSH Member

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    Agreed with the bolded, and really it was the first half of 2017 that was good.
    .334 OBP, .538 SLG.
    Post all star he went .310 OBP, 468 SLG.

    13 mill over 3 years for <800 OPS at DH.
    The you have to either play Hanley at 1B.
    Or move Hanley for pennies on the dollar and THEN find a 1B.
    Or somehow make space for Bruces terrible glove in the outfield and still find a 1B.

    No thanks.
     
  16. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    I did think Upton would get more if he hit the open market, which he didn't. But like I pointed out then maybe that full no trade protection (which I actually don't like at all from the LAA POV) is ultimately worth more then the extra money to him.

    As noted in the past, you buy more into absolute WAR value then I do. I also liked the Bruce fit more then the 1B type alternatives due to the fact he would also provide OF depth, and extra insurance in the event we are a half season away from wanting to cut bait on Bradley if he was staying put to start the season.
     
  17. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    2,808
    For a lot of other people I'm guessing that might depend on where one currently stands on the JDM possibility. For those speculating under an assumption that DD is playing some methodical market game behind the scenes and which ends up scoring JDM at his price and not a penny more...it's a lot easier to resist the urge to question DD's current competence in relationship to the now much more delicate post-2017 job the shifting landscape has put in front of him.

    But again and as I said from the start of the off season, whether it plays out to be simply replaying 2017's lineup in 2018 minus Nunez, or adding another potential albatross contract to the current mix going forward...neither was ultimately the most ideal answer here given the surrounding circumstances imho.
     
  18. DanoooME

    DanoooME Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Why isn't Benintendi playing every day? If it's because he's a LHH, he's not going to get better at it sitting on the bench. Moreland doesn't matter as much because we know what he is.
     
  19. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

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    I let WAR sit this one out actually since we're basically talking about him being a DH here. I just don't think Jay Bruce is very good.

    Last 5 seasons which count Bruce' last good one - wRC+ 107.
    He hit a lot of home runs, and played an adequate right field but played in a launching pad. Those home runs wouldn't happen with as much frequency here since he has pull/up the middle power. Any bounce back or partial bounce back season from Hanley to closer to his career average would be better than what Jay Bruce can do.

    And I see him as a non-factor in the outfield since they will want a Chris Young-like lefty masher.
     
    #269 grimshaw, Jan 11, 2018
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2018
  20. chawson

    chawson Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

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    The full sum of LHP in the AL East include Sabathia, Snell, Happ, Miley, Montgomery and Chapman. That’s very few lefty mashing at bats for April and September.

    But your point stands. Brentz and Travis are arguably these guys, but I doubt we carry them both on the same bench. A guy like Prado, who can play multiple positions and put up a .420 wOBA vs. lefties the last two years, could be valuable for this club if he’s healthy (and cheaper).

    Totally with you on Bruce.
     
  21. Red(s)HawksFan

    Red(s)HawksFan Member SoSH Member

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    Fortunately, they don't need to carry Brentz and Travis on the same bench since Travis has options. Brentz, if he sticks as the 4th OF, can serve as the defacto back-up/RHH 1B simply by DHing while Hanley plays 1B.
     
  22. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    2,808
    If Bruce isn't "very good" here, then what would you classify having Mitch Moreland as your cleanup hitter on a team with championship aspirations? But for the record it's not like I'm totally in love with Bruce as a player or anything either. I just felt he looked like the best current fit for us as things stand (at that type of contract), and was viewing him as the most likely hope DD had to avoid painting himself into an unfavorable all or nothing corner.

    Disagree with that non-factor comment as well, starting with the overall flexibility aspects that comes with a plan of Bruce filling in at both OF/1B (which is reportedly the Mets' plan for him). Plus Bradley's future is anything but certain atm, and if he picks off where he left off last season the surrounding conversation there after another half season of poor offense in his age 28 season gets a lot different then simply cementing him into a continuing every day role here. Especially with the pre-existing lineup concern/s in the event it didn't get addressed in the off-season.

    Guessing your lefty masher and apparent heir to an everyday OF spot in the event Jackie busts out and/or somebody gets hurt is probably Brentz too btw. Since he currently fits in for a hopeful solution to the escalating battle DD is going to be fighting on a different front, which is the desperate need to help offset our bloated payroll with dirt cheap supplemental pieces.
     
  23. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

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    3,196
    Moreland and Bruce both aren't very good but as I have said many times that in my opinion, Moreland isn't considered THE bat they are signing. If he is the clean up hitter on June 1st, I will come over and wash your car.

    Guys like Bruce, Duda, Alonso were all given away last year. The Mets guessed right on Bruce and didn't bid against themselves on a so so player that no one else had much interest in. It's not going to be impossible for them to find a bat significantly better than Bruce much less Moreland somewhere.
     
  24. PapaSox

    PapaSox lurker

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    At this point I'd be happy with signing Frazier (DH/3B) to a one year deal - pick your dollar amount. Go out an add a 4th OF - Austin Jackson and LH-RP - Tony Watson. I just soooo tired of this off-season and hearing about JDM and where things may stand.
     
  25. OCD SS

    OCD SS Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Scott Boras’s strategy appears to be to drive the fans of prospective teams insane with boredom so that they complain loudly enough that the team will just give in and give his client more money.
     
  26. Pozo the Clown

    Pozo the Clown lurker

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    485
    Per the various reports that I've read, Frazier is looking for a multi-year deal. Unless they trade for Machado, if and when Frazier is amenable to a one-year deal, he'll likely return to the Bronx.
     
  27. PapaSox

    PapaSox lurker

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    230
    Yah! I imagine he would. Its just been a slow season and I'm getting a little jumpy waiting for Spring Training. DD has been good at taking care of things quick so we had an idea by Christmas what to expect. This season has had all the joy of watching paint dry.
     
  28. Stanley Steamer

    Stanley Steamer Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    899
    Yes, it has been a particularly bad Hot Stove season. At some point, we'll just get on with things, but I do think the Sox need more in the lineup than what we see on display today.
     
  29. Sampo Gida

    Sampo Gida lurker

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    Players being forced to sign lesser seals with the team they came from seems more common lately. Reminds me of the late 80's with Morris having to sign back with the Tigers for lack of better offers
     
  30. tonyarmasjr

    tonyarmasjr Member SoSH Member

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    You're saying if 2017 Jackie Bradley is who he is, that he should be benched?
     
  31. Trotsky

    Trotsky Member SoSH Member

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    1,774
    Seen countless times here and it's driving me crazy... the phrase is "should've" which is "should have".... not should "of".
     
  32. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    In which speculative scenario? The one you quoted that has Bradley still doing that here essentially got killed off the moment Mitch Moreland was cemented into the overall equation. The Sox had room to add one bat this winter without making any major lineup changes, and as of now that spot has been filled. Bradley is the one playing odd man out in the event we sign JDM or trade for McCutchen, which is really the only 2 visible options I see being left. Regardless of the popular surface speculation that isn't really bothering to weigh in on some of the surrounding realities that go into that decision yet, it's not going to be Hanley there imo.

    But yeah, if Bradley follows up last year's second half by sporting a .204/.277/.302 line in Boston come late June, I don't think it's a given what-so-ever that he wouldn't ultimately get benched or/and probably even traded for a lot less then people would be expecting to get out of him right now. An already 28yo Bradley simply isn't working with that type of rope here atm/imo. Especially if/when the surrounding narrative is the same as last year.
     
  33. chawson

    chawson Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

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    954
    Why are you still beating this drum? JBJ’s knee and thumb injuries last year were well-documented, and his hitting struggles lined up accordingly. Even with them, he’s been the 7th best CF in baseball the last two years.

    DD had to sign a first baseman and he did. His team appears built. He’s got the $22M from Hanley’s 2019 salary in the crib if he wants to use it, and he’s waiting to see what he gets dealt next.
     
  34. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    2,808
    I could ask your apparent baseline assumption there the same. But he asked so I answered.

    Good to see somebody else reading into the possibility that DD might be done as far as adding lineup pieces go though.
     
  35. nvalvo

    nvalvo Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    14,418
    I find it seriously puzzling that MikeM thinks that a 28 year-old Bradley, a plus CF coming off a .726 OPS, is working with less rope than a 34 year-old Ramirez, a DH/1B coming off a .750 OPS.

    Ramirez, last three seasons: 1603 PA of .328 OBP and .458 SLG; .786 OPS
    Bradley, last three seasons: 1432 PA of .337 OBP, .456 SLG; .793 OPS

    Bradley's line has been much better when you consider that OBP is worth more than SLG.
     
  36. BigPapiMPD34

    BigPapiMPD34 lurker

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    Interesting, this is something I've always thought about too. I've always looked at OPS as a flawed stat since it weights OBP and SLG evenly despite the fact that they are based on different ranges and not necessarily equal in value.

    For example, OBP maxes out at 1.000, but almost all players will land somewhere between .250 and .400. That only leaves a range of about .150, with the league average being .325. SLG contains a much wider range since it maxes out at 4.000. Almost all players will land somewhere between .300 and .600. That leaves a range of about .300, with the league average being .425.

    This is why I always try to look at OBP and SLG separately when evaluating a player's value on offense. Also, the OBP weight of OPS completely ignores baserunning, which is a big factor for non-sluggers that try to focus on getting on base.
     
  37. PapaSox

    PapaSox lurker

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    If he's done then I'd say he's done going after "Big Bats". However, I think there is room to add smaller pieces to round out the team. Unless, Brentz is his 4th OF there is a need to add someone like Austin Jackson. There is room in the pen for another LH-RP. We could use someone like Goins as a utility IF. I'm assuming Nunez is looking for a starting role but we could add him. Not sure Marrero or Hernandez can fill the role. There is a little fine tuning to be done.
     
  38. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    2,808
    I don't find it that puzzling. In fact it's based on a lot of the same speculative logic that was already being discussed quite bit here pre-Moreland, and which (at least in my case) hasn't really changed any just because that was the call DD went on to make. But if you want a refresher we can start with the fact that any either/or decision there isn't being made in vacuum. Followed by the surrounding LT situation a potential JDM signing leaves us looking at. Which even at a conservative $25m/per leaves total estimated payroll coming in right at or slightly over a 2nd tier hit btw, depending on what Betts gets, for those that stopped keeping count.

    But in an attempt to not completely rehash everything, what it really boils down to is this. For as much flack as Hanley has (deservedly) gotten, which really only reached universal/obvious release status when people started scrambling for potential scenarios where they end up liking that Moreland signing, he's still ultimately just as much of a hopeful/needed upside play towards 2018 as Jackie Bradley is atm. Arguably even more so imo, given gun to my head and in fairly desperate need for some of our other guys to step it up offensively (regardless if we add another bat) I'd personally be taking a healthy Hanley to outhit/outslug a healthy Bradley next year.

    - Scenario One you cut bait completely on a guy you still have $22m tied into, which we realistically get absolutely nothing back on, and then run the risk that for a second year in a row you watch him give somebody else exactly what your own team is left needing the most.

    - Scenario Two you cut bait on one of the pieces in a surrounding payroll puzzle that has already become fairly bloated, get a healthy return in talent back that you wouldn't be getting in Scenario One, plus have the risk factor balanced out some by opening the door to a possibility that we compete this year *and* avoid a 2nd tier LT hit in the process.

    If we do add another bat, which keep in mind I'm currently guessing isn't going to end up being the case, I see it playing out to be Scenario 2.
     
    #288 MikeM, Jan 13, 2018
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2018
  39. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    2,808
    Like I noted the other day, with the surrounding payroll situation I fully expect the Sox to run with the possibility they could squeeze a couple of pre-arby years out of Brentz as a solid 4th outfielder. Same goes for running with what we already have at MI as opposed to going out and spending more money...cheaper plays with upside is the name of that game there atm. Plus I get the impression that the FO is still somewhat high on Hernandez turning out to be useful.

    There is an ideal need for a LH-RP, but the who and how there is really anybody's guess atm. Wouldn't be expecting it to be anybody that noteworthy though.
     
  40. Hawk68

    Hawk68 lurker

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    Player…….. Marcels OPS……… Bill James OPS ……. Marcels bWAR

    Ramirez …..0.786 …………...….. 0.802 ……………….. 0.91

    JBJ ………. 0.752 …………...… 0.753 ……………….. 3.10

    Well Bill James agrees regarding the projected offensive output of HR v JBJ, but Marcels has them closer and bWAR shows strongly in favor of a great CF v DH or limited time 1B.

    I would like to move on from JBJ, but the return needs to be pretty high to make it worth it.
     
  41. Greg29fan

    Greg29fan Member SoSH Member

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  42. nvalvo

    nvalvo Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    Thanks for the in-depth response, MikeM.

    You wrote: I'd personally be taking a healthy Hanley to outhit/outslug a healthy Bradley next year.

    Well, this is what it comes down to, right? Obviously, if they're both healthy, Hanley is the guy with multiple .900+ OPS seasons under his belt. But at their ages, and with the considerable wear and tear on Hanley's shoulders... well, that's a big if. I'm not holding my breath he can be that guy with any consistency.

    I believe in aging curves. Bradley's hand injuries are right, I like his chances to hit at a level close to what the 2018 version of Hanley can do, and — obviously — in conjunction with defense/positional considerations, that's just a much better player.
     
  43. Dewey'sCannon

    Dewey'sCannon lurker

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    Let's put it this way: if they were both on identical one-year contracts, would you trade JBJ for Hanley? I doubt very many would. JBJ is just more likely to provide more value to the 2018 red Sox than Hanley.

    But I like Hanley. the injuries the last couple of years have been unfortunate. If he's healthy, I think he can provide a good bit of the pop we need in the lineup.

    And if Hanley's healthy, I think we can survive without JDM. But we'd be better off if we can get him, at a reasonable price (and more importantly, years). If we can get JDM, I also don't see that a trade is necessary (or desirable) - I think JDM would get most of the ABs at DH, and some OF against LHP while either JBJ or Beni gets a day off. Hanley and Moreland split time at 1B, with maybe a little DH thrown in, but not as a straight platoon - playing time based on health and production. Brentz would obviously be the one left out under this scenario - Holt or Swihart could be the 5th OF, (and fill other UT roles), depending on how the bottom of the roster shakes out.
     
  44. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Are there any sites that show all the projection systems for one player? I've noticed some of the projection systems really love Tzu Wei Lin in 2018, particularly Marcels. His composite projection is really good too. Steamer, not so much.

    Marcels: .263/.345/.415
    Composite: .286/.348/.452 ???
    Steamer: .253/.312/.364
    Rotochamp: .250/.323/.375.

    Considering he can play SS, 2b, 3b, CF, has the arm strength to play RF and LF, and could be used as a pinch runner... he'd have value even at his steamer projection. Too bad he bats lefty.
     
    #294 bosox79, Jan 13, 2018
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2018
  45. Buzzkill Pauley

    Buzzkill Pauley Member SoSH Member

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    10,423
    It's not too bad at all that he bats lefty. Lin's entirely redundant with Holt and Hernandez, but that provides the Sox roster flexibility while Pedroia's out. Plus, preserving that redundancy is very important because even though the volatility bars for each of these three guys is huge, the Sox will still have to run one of them out to man 2B every day until Pedroia's knee is game-ready.

    If Holt can't produce, then maybe Hernandez could. If Hernandez can't either, then Lin maybe can.
     
  46. Rich Garces Belly

    Rich Garces Belly Member SoSH Member

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    At that price I would have absolutely matched the contract if I was the Red Sox. Especially to ensure that I have an experienced closer in 2019 if Kimbrel walked.
     
  47. simplicio

    simplicio Well-Known Member Gold Supporter

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    MLBTR noted that he'd been offered some 3 year deals but wanted to play in the midwest.
     
  48. Buzzkill Pauley

    Buzzkill Pauley Member SoSH Member

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    Setting aside the question whether Reed preferred the Midwest... the Red Sox are rapidly running out of cap space to fit under the $237MM secondary threshold, at which point the penalties start becoming really punitive under the new CBA.

    Assuming Mookie wins his arbitration hearing and the Sox sign Martinez for $25MM per year or more, there’s not enough salary room to add $8.5MM for a 4th bullpen arm with closer experience. Not without losing draft position, and an extra reliever just isn’t worth it.
     
  49. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Fair enough. If he's in a starting role, it's favorable that he bats lefty. I was thinking more from a bench perspective/long term perspective rather than short term. If he can really hit as well as his Marcels projection, the team could consider starting him and trading one of several different players depending on the offers. It seems pretty optimistic though. Never mind the comp projection, which is ROY candidate material. I'd be happy with the Rotochamp line in a limited role.
     
  50. Yo La Tengo

    Yo La Tengo Member SoSH Member

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    128
    Any updates on David Price this off-season?

    Since there's not much else going on with the Sox, I'd predict a better record in 2018 with a healthy, effective David Price and no JDM as compared to the results with a repeat of the 2017 Price plus JDM.
     

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