The offseason heading into 2018
- Thread starter Devizier
- Start date
Well being the DH would cut down on the injuries. Depends how much money the Brewers take on too. If they’re picking up 60% then it’s worth a flyer as long as the cost is next to nothing on the Sox end.
The whole point of signing Martinez is to add an elite bat. Adding Braun might not even offer an upgrade over Hanley.
You just don't get it, do you? There's a shiny new name to talk about for 2-3 pages.
It's not Braun they are trading. It's Domingo Santana.
Edro for Santana. Then go out and sign Alex Cobb to replace Edro. Offseason solved.
Edro for Santana. Then go out and sign Alex Cobb to replace Edro. Offseason solved.
You’re not wrong here.
The thing I like about Santana is that he’s not really susceptible to anything pitchers throw (besides changeups). No obvious holes.
His 2017 slugging by pitch:
FB - .553
SL - .554
FT - .523
CH - .292
CU - .484
SI - .387
FC - .513
There are very few guys in the AL—let alone the AL East—who throw good changeups. Carrasco, Severino, Bundy, Kluber, Cole. Stroman and Gray are alright. But the league is converting to hard heat and hard sliders, and Santana mashes those. He whiffs a lot, but he does damage, and at 25 he could still get better.
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Santana is young enough and still has the cost controlled years left where I actually think your speculative chance of seeing this FO cut bait on Hanley would go up too (as opposed to trading JBJ in the event we sign JDM, and trimming some additional salary around the edges).
I'd want to see the exact details of a Cobb contract first though.
Found this quote from Theo Epstein interesting as the Sox position player core seems to have just completed step 4 of 5. Devers, Bogaerts, Vazquez, Benintendi, Bradley, Betts is quite a solid young core to have.
"Our position player core is a big part of our identity and we really believe in them. It’s not a coincidence the Royals, us [Cubs] and the Astros all developed a position player core that came up together, went through adversity together, learned to win at the big league level, lost in the postseason and then came back in the postseason to win a championship.”
https://theathletic.com/221674/2018/01/25/theo-epsteins-almanac-a-fallow-winter-could-still-lead-to-a-prosperous-spring-and-summer-for-the-cubs/
"Our position player core is a big part of our identity and we really believe in them. It’s not a coincidence the Royals, us [Cubs] and the Astros all developed a position player core that came up together, went through adversity together, learned to win at the big league level, lost in the postseason and then came back in the postseason to win a championship.”
https://theathletic.com/221674/2018/01/25/theo-epsteins-almanac-a-fallow-winter-could-still-lead-to-a-prosperous-spring-and-summer-for-the-cubs/
We are going to be a much much better tram than people think right now. Everyone took a step back last year for non fundamental reasons.
Braun is probably an upgrade over Hanley. Not really saying much. Like Miggy all depends how much they pick up. Use the savings to jump in on Darvish if needed. Santana would be a nice pick up over Braun as well but the Sox would probably have to trade actual talent which defeats the purpose.
It's not a terrible idea, but I think the Brewers can aim higher than Rodriguez if they're trading Santana. My first call would be to the Rays to see what I'd need to add to get Chris Archer. If that didn't work, I'd probably call the Indians about Danny Salazar.
He became kind of a joke after that PED scandal in 2011, but Braun still mashes. Had wrist and hamstring injuries last year, but his exit velo is still strong and his 2016-17 wOBA of .364 is higher than Springer, Ozuna, Betts, Upton and Jose Abreu (and Hanley’s .344). Rates better defensively since they moved him from right to left.
He’s got 3/$56M guaranteed left and a 2021 buyout (and a NTC), but I’d consider Braun and Santana for Edro. It would then mean trading Beni or Bradley, and if it’s Beni, we could probably get one of Fulmer, Archer or Taillon. Aspects of Beni’s game go wasted here, and if he signs on with Boras after that fiasco with his agent, he loses value to us too.
The Brewers added $23M to their payroll today. They’d have many suitors for Santana, but none would match our capacity to take Braun—which is exactly what we should be doing when we have no prospects to trade.
Betts-Bogaerts-Devers-Santana-Moreland-Braun-Bradley-Pedroia-Vazquez
Sale, Price, Fulmer/Taillon, Pomeranz, Porcello
That team extends the window past 2019 and is $60-90M less committed money than signing JDM.
He’s got 3/$56M guaranteed left and a 2021 buyout (and a NTC), but I’d consider Braun and Santana for Edro. It would then mean trading Beni or Bradley, and if it’s Beni, we could probably get one of Fulmer, Archer or Taillon. Aspects of Beni’s game go wasted here, and if he signs on with Boras after that fiasco with his agent, he loses value to us too.
The Brewers added $23M to their payroll today. They’d have many suitors for Santana, but none would match our capacity to take Braun—which is exactly what we should be doing when we have no prospects to trade.
Betts-Bogaerts-Devers-Santana-Moreland-Braun-Bradley-Pedroia-Vazquez
Sale, Price, Fulmer/Taillon, Pomeranz, Porcello
That team extends the window past 2019 and is $60-90M less committed money than signing JDM.
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That solves a lot of issues: power bat, Ramirez vesting, upgrade starters.
If we could keep Benitendi and move Bradley that also removes another Boras client with questionable character - and keeps a younger, higher upside player.
And it gives us one last bite at the JDM at "discount". Just before finalizing the trade, a call to Boras with a BAFO. Take it or leave it with a 20 minute deadline to keep him from fouling the trade.
If I am reading you right - you are saying JBJ is of "questionable character"? I don't believe I have ever read or seen anyone say a bad thing about the man...moreover what I have read or seen is that he's a family guy who is unfailingly polite with fans and works very hard at his job. Your comment is puzzling.
Couple things -
1) Ramirez, Braun JBJ and Santana are projected to be within 10 points of each other in wRC+ next season. For some reason Steamer isn't completely buying Santana's production, and thinks Hanley bounces back more than Braun to where they are about the same. I actually like Santana a lot, and expected a higher projection, but I still don't think he is THE slugger they need.
2) There is going to be a significant downgrade defensively no matter who moves to CF. There isn't a large enough defensive sample on Santana, but I think it's safe to say he isn't in the same league as JBJ. It's possible he improves into an all-star but we've seen Bradley do this already. I think they are about even in ability and don't move the overall win needle.
3) Braun just isn't very good and we have an aging, expensive, not good DH already. If you add Braun you likely DFA Hanley, but then you still have Braun's contract which is worse.
4) Why would the Pirates or Tigers move either of their young inexpensive potential aces for an outfielder? They should be building around those guys for the future. And for all we know Rodriguez could be just as good.
5) Benintendi and Eduardo Rodriguez are the two youngest players in all of those players being moved, and Braun the oldest, so I would argue the window would narrow a tad with your proposal.
I don't believe it would take Edro in that package either. The Braun contract would be well underwater for the Red Sox were he to only DH, so if they are essentially parting with Edro straight up for Santana and Braun's negative value, I don't think that's a net win.
Just add JDM, keep Beni and Rodriguez add 3-4 wins that way and call it a day. They would need a lot of on paper side grades to break in their favor otherwise.
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Braun is 36 days older than Hanley. He has been a better hitter than Hanley over his career and over the last three years in particular, no question. But I'm not sure he's a guy you want for three more years. If he were a free agent right now, he wouldn't be getting three years plus an option.
Pretty dumb on my part, def should have checked that out. I would think braun would be better than Hanley but not worth trading for. If they trade Santana, I imagine it would be to the Rays for better younger pitching than ERod. I think the only way this will affect us is by hopefully kickstarting the FA market. Hope the brewers and twins sign arrieta and Darvish soon
Not feeding. I'm genuinely hoping it's not what I think it is and I'm giving him the chance to, at the very least, walk it back. On its face, that's a very ugly comment.
I'm curious why you think this. Of the two, Santana is the one who's likely to get better, not worse, over the window the Brewers have created for themselves here. Yes, they'd get more back in a trade for Santana, but if they're GFIN-ing, not rebuilding, that shouldn't be their top priority, should it?
Keep JBJ. One benefit is it unyokes our wagon from Hanley’s 2019 option. Braun’s roughly as expensive in 2018, but the numbers say he’s a more productive hitter than Hanley at this point, and more importantly, he gets us access to Santana.
In this hypothetical, the outfield is Santana-JBJ-Betts with Braun DHing. You can make a case to flip Braun and Santana.
True. You’d have to believe in Braun’s bat, and I sort of do. Since 2015, he’s been as productive a hitter as Cespedes, Springer, and Abreu, and three years is not a long commitment. If it were only about Braun vs. Hanley, it’s not worth the risk, but if it also helps us get four years of 25-year-old Santana, it could be.
I’m not them, but maybe because position players make better long-term assets? Fulmer and Taillon both slotted in last summer’s Fangraphs Top 50 trade value. Fulmer was 24th and Taillon was 36th. Benintendi was 26th. Everyone’s got five years of control left.
Fair point. I think Braun is an upgrade to Hanley. Santana is an upgrade to Beni (especially Beni as a left fielder and hitter in Fenway). And Taillon/Fulmer is an upgrade to Edro. And the ages aren’t far apart, really. Fulmer is a month older than Rodriguez and has one more year of team control.
Hard to say! Right now, the rumors are that Milwaukee’s dangling Santana and Phillips for Archer, but it’s not enough. Relieving them of Braun allows them to re-allocate that money to Darvish, Arrieta, Lynn or Cobb, which seems valuable to them.
I’d agree Braun has slightly negative value, but I wouldn’t bet my house he’d fail to earn $56M of value the next three years. He put up 9.4 brWAR the last three, one of them injury-shortened. Again, I’m only interested as a means of getting Santana, but he’s no Matt Kemp.
I mean, JDM is good too. But he costs $60-90M more than this scenario. I’d argue that this one spreads the risk out more. Plus, it’s January 26th.
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My guess is it’s got to do with Santana’s defense. If they think Brett Phillips is ready, at least for a platoon with Broxton, then Phillips-Cain-Yelich is a huge defensive improvement over Braun-Broxton-Santana.
I don't want to trade for Ryan Braun, but he's never had an OPS+ below 111 and he's only guaranteed 60 mil over the next 3 years, which is exactly what Carlos Santana got. I'd rather have Santana so maybe his contract is slightly overpriced, but not by much.
I don't think the Brewers have ever fully appreciated what they have with Domingo Santana.
I think they see a player who is pretty one-dimensional, who maybe doesn't have the appearance of a top athlete, and who is probably frustrating to watch strike out nearly 30% of the time.
But, when that one dimension is hitting the ball hard and with power - and also pretty good patience and on-base skills - it's enough.
I guess the Brewers are taking a look at Cleveland's talented headcase Danny Salazar. Myself, I'd be more interested in Edro, who is 4 years younger and more likely to be able to hold down a rotation spot for a full season (I suspect) than Salazar. Although my argument would be stronger of course if Edro wasn't already hurt.
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Carlos Santana 2015-17: 7.1 offensive WAR
Ryan Braun 2015-17: 9.3 offensive WAR
Even with wrist injuries, Braun’s AVG exit velo in 2017 was 89.7 — 49th in MLB. Percentage of balls hit 95+ mph — 43.5, 43rd in MLB.
He’s not JDM and he’s not young, but that contract is far less underwater than I thought it was.
Yeah, kinda left thinking the same thing there. I mean instead of going after surplus and committing a questionable 5 years to a 32yo CF'er, immediately after you just got done trading for one, why not make the play on what looks to be a depressed Cobb market instead?
Assuming their own projected rate on where Darvish ends up scared them off splurging a little more on that possibility, I think the Cobb instead of Cain and keeping Santana route might of looked better for them.
I guess it comes down to whatever you think Braun has left - but I'm much less optimistic the difference between his and Santana vs Hanley and Beni's overall production make them better this year. It seems like a lot to take on just to get an outfielder who has had one good season and arguably has a lower ceiling than the left fielder we already have.
I think Beni is going to be the better offensive player and possibly best player period out of all those bats and arms you mentioned.
I think this is the question. To me, it’s more about re-allocating the value of a very good young player to one that better fits our team.
I think there’s three reasons you consider flipping Benintendi for comparable talent. One is that he’s a plus CF, but we’ve stuck him in the least challenging outfield slot in baseball, where his defense could depreciate. Two is whether you believe that his 80 wRC+ at home (and 71 wRC+ vs. LHP) reflects the kind of hitter he is long-term. Three is if we have an inside scoop he’s gonna sign with Boras before it’s announced.
I think Beni’s quite good and obviously going to get better, but I think his appeal is how high his floor is, not his ceiling. I recognize this board is split on that, and I could be wrong. But I’m concerned he’s more Reddicky than we think.
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http://thebiglead.com/2017/07/24/tremendously-thin-skinned-red-sox-are-waging-ridiculous-war-against-dennis-eckersley/
"Two years ago, when the Sox were in Detroit, Bradley set up Eckersley. After going 2 for 3 with a homer in an August 2015 victory, Bradley asked Sox publicist Kevin Gregg if he would arrange for a photo with Eckersley. Gregg made the request for Bradley. Eckersley thought it was odd, but posed with JBJ on the tarmac before boarding.
Once on board, Bradley sent out a tweet which read, “Huge thanks to @Eck43 for saying all the things I “can’t” do these past few days. People like you is what drives me
”The tweet was accompanied by the photo of Eckersley and Bradley, standing and smiling. In the photo, Bradley has his right arm around Eckersley’s back.
When Eckersley was shown the tweet, he confronted Gregg, who expressed surprise.
“I had no idea, none at all,’’ said Gregg."
With all due respect, as you choose to be insulting I can only assume you are ignorant of this event or do not believe that behavior is a character issue.
It's not. Really? This is a "character issue" to you? Wow. Really had to dig deep thenhttp://thebiglead.com/2017/07/24/tremendously-thin-skinned-red-sox-are-waging-ridiculous-war-against-dennis-eckersley/
"Two years ago, when the Sox were in Detroit, Bradley set up Eckersley. After going 2 for 3 with a homer in an August 2015 victory, Bradley asked Sox publicist Kevin Gregg if he would arrange for a photo with Eckersley. Gregg made the request for Bradley. Eckersley thought it was odd, but posed with JBJ on the tarmac before boarding.
Once on board, Bradley sent out a tweet which read, “Huge thanks to @Eck43 for saying all the things I “can’t” do these past few days. People like you is what drives me
The tweet was accompanied by the photo of Eckersley and Bradley, standing and smiling. In the photo, Bradley has his right arm around Eckersley’s back.
When Eckersley was shown the tweet, he confronted Gregg, who expressed surprise.
“I had no idea, none at all,’’ said Gregg."
With all due respect, as you choose to be insulting I can only assume you are ignorant of this event or do not believe that behavior is a character issue.
I don't think anybody other than reality TV show cast members should care about 3 year old tweets. But that's me.
The whole team dislikes Eck. Does that mean the entire team has character issues? According to reports of the plane incident, the team was basically unified behind Price's treatment of him. Of course, I look at that incident and think of the age old SoSH adage "If you've got a problem with everyone around you, you might want to consider whether the problem is with them or with you."
Eck has a history of getting under people's skin.
The whole team may dislike Eck, but you can dislike somebody and still be a professional and a grownup about it. The trick JBJ pulled with the photo and the tweet was immature and petty, regardless of whether Eck deserved it or not.
But I agree that "bad character" is way overstating the case. Just a momentary lapse in judgment.
I think Eck joked about it once too and took it in stride.
But ya, that's kind of reaching. There hasn't been a peep about JBJ's character that I can recall otherwise. He never says anything controversial and seems like a pretty quiet dude.
But ya, that's kind of reaching. There hasn't been a peep about JBJ's character that I can recall otherwise. He never says anything controversial and seems like a pretty quiet dude.
I had never read this article until recently, it makes the whole Royals cadre seem like broy frat boy assholes, which is ironic, considering Boras is pitching Hosmer as a leader/good guy. At the end of the day, a lot of these players are going to be narcissistic dicks(Eckersley prob was/is) that arent going to come off well if we dive into their day to day. They don't need to be heroes, just need to play ball well.
https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/learning-the-language-of-the-clubhouse/
https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/learning-the-language-of-the-clubhouse/
***Disclaimer*** I am in no way agreeing with Hawk's assessment of JBJ having a character issue.
That being said, wasn't there a lot of kerfuffle about his attitude when he was clashing with coaches about his swing?
Purely looking for clarity, not making a judgment on him.
That being said, wasn't there a lot of kerfuffle about his attitude when he was clashing with coaches about his swing?
Purely looking for clarity, not making a judgment on him.
Sir,
I reply to you, as you have a large number of interesting posts and are a thought leader here.
The character issue important to me. I was taught long ago that leadership a potent combination of strategy and character. But if you must be without one, be without strategy.
What JBJ did was premeditated - and wrong. The fact that Mr. Price did far worse or that others on the team engaged in similar behavior does not and can never make it right.
In the business of baseball, and compared to his peers, the actions of Mr. Bradley perhaps insufficient to outweigh his on field ability and contributions.
But I stand by my assessment, reject those twisting my words, and my point unchanged.
Given a chance to retain the younger, higher upside Benintendi, and move on from JBJ for a fair return - that has my endorsement.
Respectfully,
Hawk
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Based on information publicly available, this position is absurd, ignorant, and asinine.
If you think being a little shit because you're overly defensive about criticisms leveled at you by someone whose job it is to level criticisms at ballplayers, your standard for being a bad character is too low by an order of magnitude or two.
There was a sketchily-sourced report that a coach thought he was "stubborn," yes. There were two coaches let go sometime after the report and Bradley became an All-Star following their dismissals, so draw your own conclusions over who was being the asshole there. Assuming the report was legit, of course.
ETA this was in '14, if I'm not mistaken
Let's all just agree here that JBJ has a well..... a certain look... .like he's unhappy or grumpy.... that maybe he seems like he should be more grateful or something.......
This is a beautiful koan. Would you tattoo it on the small of my back?
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Haven't seen the NRIs discussed yet. Maybe that's some fodder?
https://bosoxinjection.com/2018/01/16/boston-red-sox-evaluating-spring-training-non-roster-invitees/
https://bosoxinjection.com/2018/01/16/boston-red-sox-evaluating-spring-training-non-roster-invitees/