NFL's Declining Viewership: One Slice at a Time

Cesar Crespo

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I'd guess it would matter more for the SB than a CCG but for some markets, who they play doesn't matter as much. A Dallas Vs New England match up would look like the best draw, but how much higher would it rate than Dallas vs KC? People would tune in to watch Dallas win or lose, just like they would New England. As long as you get one draw, the 2nd doesn't matter as much.
 

TFisNEXT

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Atlanta is the 10th biggest TV market in the US - substantially bigger than Milwaukee/Green Bay and, albeit by a smaller margin, than Seattle too. What am I missing?
Others already stated it well, but yeah, it's the national draw that matters a lot more in the SB than the local market size. Atlanta might have the worst out of market fan base of the remaining teams.
 

johnmd20

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Did last year's SB draw well? I assume so because Peyton and Cam.
Every Super Bowl draws well. This isn't like baseball or the NBA, where the matchups can really alter the championship ratings. The Super Bowl gets big ratings pretty much no matter what.
 

tims4wins

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Every Super Bowl draws well. This isn't like baseball or the NBA, where the matchups can really alter the championship ratings. The Super Bowl gets big ratings pretty much no matter what.
I mean relative to the last ~5 Super Bowls. I imagine the Pats-Hawks one did great. Hawks-Denver was probably decent, although it became a blowout. Can't imagine the SF-Baltimore one was super huge, although it turned into a good game and had the Harbaugh angle. Pats-Giants I assume was enormous. Steelers-GB too.
 

TFisNEXT

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I'd guess it would matter more for the SB than a CCG but for some markets, who they play doesn't matter as much. A Dallas Vs New England match up would look like the best draw, but how much higher would it rate than Dallas vs KC? People would tune in to watch Dallas win or lose, just like they would New England. As long as you get one draw, the 2nd doesn't matter as much.
Dallas would be a monster draw no matter who they face, so on that idea alone I agree, but I'd imagine having them facing New England instead of KC is still a pretty material difference.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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I feel like the Falcons with their explosive offense would make for a high-scoring SB. Matty Ice may not be a huge draw but Julio is certainly marketable. Any combo of Pitt/Pats/Packers/Falcons probably leads to a high-scoring and exciting SB. Does this stuff even matter for the SB? How would TV ratings rank for the CCGs:

1. DAL vs. SEA
2. GB vs. SEA
3. DAL vs. ATL
4. GB vs. ATL

AFC I assume goes:

1. NEP vs. PIT
2. NEP vs. KC
3. HOU vs. PIT
4. HOU vs. KC
I think the best representation of the ratings would be how teams rated in primetime games. The Cowboys fucking killed primetime games. As in, it wasn't close. The Patriots killed on Sunday and Monday nights as well (but nothing like the Cowboys).

There are teams that perform well in nationally televised games. Football is a sport for casual viewers. People know Tom Brady and Bill Belicheat. They know they're "The Yankees of Football". People know the Cowboys. They're the most successful franchise in the sport and their following spans generations. The SB may be more entertaining with Matty Ice, but the viewership is primarily driven from the buildup, not the product itself (although close games will keep viewers and may add some throughout the game).

Cowboys/Patriots are a marketing wet dream.
 

mauf

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I mean relative to the last ~5 Super Bowls. I imagine the Pats-Hawks one did great. Hawks-Denver was probably decent, although it became a blowout. Can't imagine the SF-Baltimore one was super huge, although it turned into a good game and had the Harbaugh angle. Pats-Giants I assume was enormous. Steelers-GB too.
Super Bowl ratings have been substantially flat the past five years; there was a slight dip four years ago, but that was probably due to the power outage rather than the matchup.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Super_Bowl_TV_ratings
 

TFisNEXT

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Wiki tells me the last 7 or so have all received the same ratings
Yeah been pretty close. According to sportsmediawatch, the highest of those 7 was the Pats/Seahawks at a 47.5 rating and the lowest was Saints/Colts with a 45.0. All the rest were between 46.0 and 47.0.
 

johnmd20

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Super Bowl ratings have been substantially flat the past five years; there was a slight dip four years ago, but that was probably due to the power outage rather than the matchup.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Super_Bowl_TV_ratings
Yeah, these ratings are my point. Nothing in the USA gets a 70 share but the Super Bowl, which has hit that share or has been close to it for 7 years. The matchups aren't that critical.

edit - whereas in baseball, it's very important. The world series this year was, by far, the highest rated since 2004, which is the highest rated WS since the mid 90s, when TV was a lot different.
 

Al Zarilla

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Yeah been pretty close. According to sportsmediawatch, the highest of those 7 was the Pats/Seahawks at a 47.5 rating and the lowest was Saints/Colts with a 45.0. All the rest were between 46.0 and 47.0.
So, a lot of people apparently dislike the Patriots and are sick of their winning, so why have they gotten, and are expected to get, probably the best viewership of any AFC team in a super bowl?

Can't resist: they have an exciting team and have always had nail biter Super Bowls I would think would be what I'm looking for here. Anything else?
 

SumnerH

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So, a lot of people apparently dislike the Patriots and are sick of their winning, so why have they gotten, and are expected to get, probably the best viewership of any AFC team in a super bowl?

Can't resist: they have an exciting team and have always had nail biter Super Bowls I would think would be what I'm looking for here. Anything else?
People tune in for teams they love or hate--watching your rivals lose is the next best thing to watching your team win. Same reason Duke and the Yankees draw huge numbers.
 

Marciano490

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So, a lot of people apparently dislike the Patriots and are sick of their winning, so why have they gotten, and are expected to get, probably the best viewership of any AFC team in a super bowl?

Can't resist: they have an exciting team and have always had nail biter Super Bowls I would think would be what I'm looking for here. Anything else?
 

singaporesoxfan

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Atlanta is the 10th biggest TV market in the US - substantially bigger than Milwaukee/Green Bay and, albeit by a smaller margin, than Seattle too. What am I missing?

1. NYC
2. LA
3. Chicago
4. Philly
5. Dallas
6. Bay Area
7. DC
8. Houston
9. Boston
10. Atlanta

11. Tampa
12. Phoenix
13. Detroit
14. Seattle
15. Minny
16. Miami
17. Denver
18. Orlando
19. Cleveland
20. Sacto
21. St. Louis
22. Charlotte
23. Pitt
24. Raleigh
25. Portland
26. Baltimore
27. Indy
28. San Diego (pour out your 40)
29. Nashville
30. Hartford
32. Columbus, OH
33. Kansas City
34. Salt Lake
35. Milwaukee
36. Cincy
You can't just measure popularity by the primary markets. Most importantly, teams like the Packers and Cowboys draw on a significant national fan base. 538 did an interesting study of which teams are televised in each market and found that the Packers are the 3rd most televised team in the NFL after the Cowboys and Giants, while the Falcons are only the 16th.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/which-nfl-team-are-you-stuck-watching-every-sunday/

Looking at only the main DMAs in addition is an inaccurate proxy even for the size of the regional fan base because it doesn't take into account the various DMAs that primarily feature a team and the way DMAs are divided. The Packers for instance draw from at least the Green Bay DMA (#68) and the Madison one (#81), which are generally bigger than many of the other Falcons markets (Savannah, #91; Columbus GA, #127). I think if you add these up the Falcons would still be ahead but it wouldn't be as stark a difference as just comparing Atlanta and Milwaukee.
 

singaporesoxfan

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People tune in for teams they love or hate--watching your rivals lose is the next best thing to watching your team win. Same reason Duke and the Yankees draw huge numbers.
This is a nice story but how supported is it by data? I'd imagine it's more likely that there's just a huge number of bandwagon fans.
 

Al Zarilla

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People tune in for teams they love or hate--watching your rivals lose is the next best thing to watching your team win. Same reason Duke and the Yankees draw huge numbers.
I don't know. I haven't wanted to watch the Yankees for years unless they're playing the Red Sox. Same was with Kobe's Lakers unless they're playing the Celtics. Same with any AFC East team unless they're playing the Patriots. Peyton's Colts, same. Maybe just me.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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If we'd like to see Goodell fired from his job, declared bankrupt, and living under a bridge some day (like all reasonable people), shouldn't we be hoping for shitty TV ratings?

Nothing will get the owners to get rid of him except financial problems. Step 1 in getting those is having the ratings go down. Ratings go down, sponsors leave. Sponsors leave, owners get less money. Owners get less money, the get grumpy. And if they get grumpy they'll get rid of the Ginger Hammer. Ginger Hammer gets fired, soon he'll be giving handies to hobos for nickels.

And that's a situation we can all get behind.
 

joe dokes

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If we'd like to see Goodell fired from his job, declared bankrupt, and living under a bridge some day (like all reasonable people), shouldn't we be hoping for shitty TV ratings?

Nothing will get the owners to get rid of him except financial problems. Step 1 in getting those is having the ratings go down. Ratings go down, sponsors leave. Sponsors leave, owners get less money. Owners get less money, the get grumpy. And if they get grumpy they'll get rid of the Ginger Hammer. Ginger Hammer gets fired, soon he'll be giving handies to hobos for nickels.

And that's a situation we can all get behind.
Since that's not happening soon, I'd settle for 70,000 people singing "roger is an asshole" too loudly for announcers to ignore.
 

Cesar Crespo

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This is a nice story but how supported is it by data? I'd imagine it's more likely that there's just a huge number of bandwagon fans.
I don't know. I haven't wanted to watch the Yankees for years unless they're playing the Red Sox. Same was with Kobe's Lakers unless they're playing the Celtics. Same with any AFC East team unless they're playing the Patriots. Peyton's Colts, same. Maybe just me.
I root for the Yankees/Lakers to lose but don't actively watch them do so.
 

CoffeeNerdness

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“We’ve got to figure that out,” Bisciotti said. “Again, if you change that, it could mean a reduction in income, but that’s going to hit the players more significantly than it’s going to hit the owners. I still don’t know any owner that’s in this business because of the money.

“Everything is on the table, and if we have to go to ABC and NBC and say that we’ve got to cut some commercials out and give some money back and half of that money doesn’t go into the player pool, maybe that’s what we’re going to have to do. But our expenses would be adjusted accordingly too. So, I’d like to see some things cleaned up.”
http://awfulannouncing.com/2017/baltimore-ravens-owner-steve-bisciotti-urges-nfl-to-reduce-commercial-breaks.html
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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"Hey, we know there's too many commercials. We agree with the fans! If we have to have the players give up some of the limited funds they get because we decided to fuck up the product with our greed...well, we're ok with that."
 

tims4wins

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I am not interpreting it the same way. I think he is saying the players shouldn't bear half the burden. I may be wrong.
 

pappymojo

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Q: If the owners aren't in this business to make money, why are they in this business?

A1: Because it makes them feel manly, as if they are a part of the team.

A2: Because their daddy gave them the team, and if the team is good maybe daddy will love them/feel proud of them from heaven.

A3: Because it makes them feel important, as if the fans of the team are fans of the owner of the team.

A4: Because you can only buy so many famous guitars.

A5: They are in this business to make money.
 

Marciano490

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Hmm...I suppose it could be. If that's the case, I hate the Ravens less.
I like the - we don't care about the money - but we'll exact every last dime from the non billionaires threatening their lives and safety for our amusement who might need it someday soon.
 

Super Nomario

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I read "half of that money doesn't go in the player pool" the same way as KFP. Half (more or less) of revenues go in the player pool, so money not going in the player pool is money not going to the players.
 

tims4wins

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But he was talking about giving money back to sponsors, right? It is a confusing quote

Edit: it's almost like the quote should say "and half doesn't come from the player pool" - that's how I read it
 
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edoug

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I like the - we don't care about the money - but we'll exact every last dime from the non billionaires threatening their lives and safety for our amusement who might need it someday soon.
Like an inmate's first night in prison, the players know they're going to get screwed. Is this another way to get the player's to agree to an 18 game schedule?
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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The quote isn't that difficult. He's saying that there are probably too many commercials and if that's what decided, they'll have to get the networks to show fewer commercials. That would mean reducing the size of the TV contracts (since they are based on the revenues that the networks can get from commercials) - thus the comment about giving money back.

Any reduction in TV revenues would lead to a commensurate reduction in the amount of money going to the playrs under the salary cap, which is about 50%. Thus the comment about the one-half not going to the players.

I.e., the owners have to rebate the networks $100 in order to reduce commercials, that means the player revenue pool would be reduced by $50. It's just math.

Edit: Bisciotti also had an interesting take on Thrs Night Football. The league apparently gets $400M for TNF. Excluding the approximately 1000 minimum wage players and again taking that 50% figure, that means that giving up TNF would cost the 800 veteran players approximately $200M or $250,000 per player for one. How many players would be willing to forego the $250,000 and get rid of TNF?
 
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ZMart100

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The Pro Bowl was down too, it got a 4.2 following a 4.5 last year. Of course the Pro Bowl is a different animal from regular season games, this is the sixth straight year of falling viewership. This is the lowest viewership since 2007 and the lowest rating since 2006.