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The New Salary Cap Thread

Discussion in 'Rick Middleton's Pron 'Stache: Bruins Forum' started by PedroSpecialK, Jan 7, 2013.

  1. The Napkin

    The Napkin wise ass al kaprielian Dope SoSH Member

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    19,956
  2. cshea

    cshea Member SoSH Member

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    20,412
    Guess this is the best place for this...

    New Cap Geek!

    www.generalfanager.com
     
  3. teds_head

    teds_head lurker

    Messages:
    103
    Per NHL.com...
    Tuesday, 06.23.2015 
    "The managers learned the upper limit of the salary cap for the 2015-16 season will be $71.4 million, with the lower limit $52.8 million."
     
  4. PedroSpecialK

    PedroSpecialK Comes at you like a tornado of hair and the NHL sa Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    Update for post-July 1/the death of the Savard contract:
     
    [​IMG]
     
     
    [​IMG]
     
    Ices the following roster:
     
    Beleskey - Krejci - Eriksson
    Marchand - Bergeron - Connolly
    Hayes - Spooner - Pastrnak
    Rinaldo - Kelly - Talbot
    Ferlin/Kemppainen
     
    Chara - Trotman
    Krug - Seidenberg
    Morrow - McQuaid
    Miller
     
    Rask
    Backup
     
     
    Essentially, $10.2m to re-sign Hayes, Connolly, and a backup G. I really hope they move Kelly, because that gives them a lot of flexibility to bring in a top-4 defender.
     
  5. PedroSpecialK

    PedroSpecialK Comes at you like a tornado of hair and the NHL sa Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    Now updated with Smith as the backup G
     
     
     
    [​IMG]
     
     
    [​IMG]
     
  6. The Napkin

    The Napkin wise ass al kaprielian Dope SoSH Member

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    19,956
    https://twitter.com/MikeMiccoli/status/618122625349386240
     
    @MikeMiccoli 2m2 minutes ago
    Solid deals: Hayes for 3 yrs/$2.3 AAV, Connolly for 1-year/$1.025. Bruins have about $5 million in cap space remaining.
     
  7. amfox1

    amfox1 Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    4,911
    I have approx. $2.55mm in cap space which is consistent with PSK's table above.
     
  8. The Napkin

    The Napkin wise ass al kaprielian Dope SoSH Member

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    https://twitter.com/kluedeke29/status/618125035820048384
     
    Kirk Luedeke ‏@kluedeke29 3m3 minutes ago
    By my scratch math- Bruins have about $5.5M in space left. Top-4 D, backup G with NHL experience most pressing needs going into 15-16.
     
    https://twitter.com/AmalieBenjamin/status/618125608229445632
     
    Amalie Benjamin ‏@AmalieBenjamin 2m2 minutes ago
    The Bruins now have approximately $66,435,667 committed to 20 players for 2015-2016 (inc. Pastrnak/Smith), also inc. overages & Lucic.
     
  9. amfox1

    amfox1 Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    4,911
    I'm counting 23 players, as is PSK.  The three last min deals are approx $2.2-2.4 mm, depending on which combination of players you use.  Obviously, the Bruins can use those slots for upgrades.
     
  10. PedroSpecialK

    PedroSpecialK Comes at you like a tornado of hair and the NHL sa Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    I'm with Amfox's $2.55m - not sure where Kirk's getting the add'l $3m in space fro. If you expose Ferlin to waivers or send Kemppainen down, you've got another $875k/$700k respectively, but not seeing much else.
     
    [​IMG]
     
    [​IMG]
     
  11. cshea

    cshea Member SoSH Member

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    20,412
    General Fanager has them at $5.56mm in space. Kirk may be getting the number from there.

    http://www.generalfanager.com/teams/boston-bruins

    The discrepancy appears to be that GF's figures do not include Ferlin, Kemppainen or a back-up goalie.
     
  12. PedroSpecialK

    PedroSpecialK Comes at you like a tornado of hair and the NHL sa Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    Ah - they also don't include a 7th defenseman, I've got Morrow breaking camp with the team.
     
    Smith's $600k, Morrow's $863,333.33, Ferlin's $875k, and Kemppainen's $700k add up to $3.03m so that's right about on
     
  13. PedroSpecialK

    PedroSpecialK Comes at you like a tornado of hair and the NHL sa Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    There were some q's around next years cap so I decided to take a look into the future...
     
     
    In terms of the '15-'16 cap, the B's would have the following impending FAs. Still looking way too far ahead but to get a sense of their situation:
     
    UFA: Eriksson, Kelly, Talbot, Kemppainen, K Miller, J Smith
    RFA (guesstimate AAV): Connolly ($3m), Ferlin ($1m), Krug ($4.5m), Morrow ($1.25m), Trotman ($1.25m), C Miller ($800,000) - Khokhlachev and Griffith are also RFA but not sure they'll get a look
     
    Roster would look like this, full cap situation linked here:
     
    Beleskey - Krejci - Pastrnak
    Marchand - Bergeron - Connolly
    XX - Spooner - Hayes
    Ferlin - Rinaldo - Hickman
    XX
     
    Chara - Trotman
    Seidenberg - Krug
    Morrow - McQuaid
    C. Miller
     
    Rask
    McIntyre
     
    As that roster stands - and if those estimates are close to accurate on aggregate - the B's would have just over $9m in cap space to fill the 3rd line LW and upgrade the roster, so seems like they'd be able to make some noise in the UFA/trade markets next summer if need be.
     
  14. TheStoryofYourRedRightAnkle

    TheStoryofYourRedRightAnkle Member SoSH Member

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    8,032
    Those look reasonable to me.  The big unknown is how much the cap will grow vs. high talent player salaries.  Will guys like Kopitar and Stamkos (if unsigned) go for a little or a lot more next year.  This year was useless since there wasn't any high end UFA talent really available.  Stastny got 7M from the Blues and he's great, but not the player that Kopitar or Stamkos are (and was older last year than Stamkos will be next year), so I have to figure those guys both get significant raises.  Stamkos should be looking at Kane/Toews money at least.
     
  15. teds_head

    teds_head lurker

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    103
    The Canadian dollar just hit a 6 year low, trading at about 77 cents.
    ​It was trading at 93 cents this time last year.
     
    Supposedly the 7 Canadian teams generate roughly 1/3 of the revenue for the NHL.
    Things can change over the next year, but this doesn't bode well for much of a cap increase (if any) in 2016.
     
  16. MiracleOfO2704

    MiracleOfO2704 not AWOL SoSH Member

    Messages:
    5,603
    It was $0.93 USD to $1 CAD this time last year, but not long past this point, the Canadian dollar hit a nosedive, so I think the bulk of the US gains/Canadian losses were reflected in the 2015-16 cap.
     
    Just as important was the slide the CAD took at the end of 2013. That the loonie briefly rebounded last year isn't as important as the fact that this it's generally been in the neighborhood of $0.80 for almost two years now.
     
  17. teds_head

    teds_head lurker

    Messages:
    103
     
    That's not exactly true. 
    From the fall of 2009 until last fall, it hadn't traded below 90 cents.
    It started to really sink in the fall of 2014 when the bottom fell out of the oil market.
     
  18. PedroSpecialK

    PedroSpecialK Comes at you like a tornado of hair and the NHL sa Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    Here's an update in light of the Backes, Liles, and Khudobin signings. I'm guessing they sign 1-2 more forwards, as this has Heinen starting the year with the team due to Krejci's recovery from hip surgery. Vesey isn't looking quite as sure as a month ago so I haven't penciled him in, pretty much have $7.5m to play with to swing a trade for a D upgrade and round out the forward roster.

    Projections for RFAs are for AAVs and are in italics.

    [​IMG]
     
  19. Dummy Hoy

    Dummy Hoy Angry Pissbum SoSH Member

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    5,710
    How much can we afford to pay Pasta?
     
  20. lexrageorge

    lexrageorge Member SoSH Member

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    6,955
    Hard to say exactly, but according to the site below, the Bruins are projected to have ~$61M in committed cap spending after the Marchand extension. If we assume Jimmy Hayes is playing for Las Vegas or Providence, and if we assume a flat cap of $73M, then the B's would have just over $14M in cap space for next season to spend on:

    - Pasta extension
    - Spooner extension or replacement
    - Replacements or extensions for Moore (UFA), Czarnik, Acciari, and Schaller (all RFA).
    - Replacements for Lilles (UFA) and Morrow (RFA).

    Of the 7 non-Pasta RFA/UFA's, I'm sure some will be replaced by guys on ELC's, others on vet minimums, and others may be extended. If we assume an average cap hit of $1M for those 7, that leaves probably about $5M for Pasta, which still leaves a small amount of breathing room for in-season pickups and anything I likely missed.

    Bottom line: Spooner is likely gone. And if the cap decreases we're really screwed with regards to Pastrnak. Don't forget that if the B's don't qualify for the playoffs Sweeney may be gone as well.

    And, here's the link: http://www.hockeybuzz.com/cap-central/team.php?team=BOS
     
  21. PedroSpecialK

    PedroSpecialK Comes at you like a tornado of hair and the NHL sa Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    Hayes going to Providence doesn't help the B's by more than league min + $375k in terms of cap space. Hat tip to Dom Tiano, he relayed the point that there is no escrow in the AHL, meaning Hayes saves $368k (and costs the Bruins that amount supplementally) in real money.

    Minimal shot he gets sent down rather than bought out - if he's still around post-expansion draft, the B's can execute a later buyout by taking one of their RFAs to arbitration, then buying Hayes out during the second buyout period. His buyout cap hits would by $566,667 ('17-'18) and $866,667 ('18-'19) - well worth it rather than having $1.3m on the cap in Providence, IMO.

    This is what the picture looks like if there are no changes made to the roster outside of:
    • Hayes being bought out
    • Moore to UFA
    • Liles to UFA
    • Kuraly recalled for line 4
    • Spooner re-signed for $1.3m AAV (I know)
    • Morrow re-signed for $900k AAV
    • Acciari re-signed for $850k AAV
    Marchand - Bergeron - Pastrnak
    Beleskey - Krejci - Senyshyn
    Spooner - Backes - Vatrano
    Kuraly - Nash - Acciari
    Heinen

    Chara - Carlo
    Krug - McQuaid
    Morrow - K Miller
    C Miller

    Rask
    Khudobin

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Basically, they'll have whatever they need to re-sign Pastrnak assuming the cap doesn't implode.
     
  22. The Napkin

    The Napkin wise ass al kaprielian Dope SoSH Member

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    19,956
  23. PedroSpecialK

    PedroSpecialK Comes at you like a tornado of hair and the NHL sa Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    Update based on $75m upper limit and Acciari's signing / UFAs being let go / Miller being taken by VGK (anticipated RFA re-signing figures are in purple):

    [​IMG]

    Sending Hayes to Providence and calling up O'Gara on day 2 makes them cap compliant.

    Assumed lineup:

    Marchand - Bergeron - Vatrano
    Bjork - Krejci - Pastrnak
    Beleskey - Spooner - Backes
    Kuraly - Nash - Acciari
    Schaller / Heinen (representing if one of the kids surprises in camp and forces them to carry 14 FW)

    Chara - McAvoy
    Krug - Carlo
    Miller - McQuaid
    O'Gara

    Rask
    Khudobin
     
    #123 PedroSpecialK, Jun 28, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 28, 2017
  24. Dummy Hoy

    Dummy Hoy Angry Pissbum SoSH Member

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    5,710
    Thanks for the update, was thinking about this the other day.

    That's not a bad squad. Although the Backes and Krejci contracts make me cringe. And Beleskey, woof.
     
  25. PedroSpecialK

    PedroSpecialK Comes at you like a tornado of hair and the NHL sa Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    Update after the 7/1 Signings. Assumptions:
    • NYR does not buy out Beleskey
    • Reported contract figures are accurate
    • CapFriendly's $774,000 bonus overage for '17-'18 is accurate
    Roster breakdown:

    [​IMG]

    Buyouts / retained + overall cap picture ($3.27m in space):

    [​IMG]

    Marchand - Bergeron - Pastrnak
    DeBrusk - Krejci - Bjork
    Heinen - Kuraly - Backes
    Nordström - Wagner - Acciari
    Donato

    Chara - McAvoy
    Krug - Carlo
    Moore - Miller
    Grzelcyk/McQuaid

    Rask
    Halák


    Needs:

    • Moving one of the defensemen out. Signing Moore at a sub-$3m AAV is good business IMO given the B's are in the driver's seat cap-wise. I'm not adverse to moving Krug if a 30 G winger is coming back.
    • Extend McAvoy
    • Clarity on Backes. Our intrepid reporters haven't had a peep on his condition in two months, and $6m going on LTIR would be a huge deal for the cap picture.
     
  26. TFP

    TFP Dope Dope

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    16,717
    If NYR buys out Beleskey, that cap hit goes down, right? That retained/buyout salary number is tough to take.
     
  27. PedroSpecialK

    PedroSpecialK Comes at you like a tornado of hair and the NHL sa Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    Yeah it goes down to $483,333.33 per year spread out over 4 years if NYR buy him out, $1.416m AAV savings for the Bruins.

    I wouldn't be shocked if NYR bought him out and are just pushing the decision to do so as far out as possible, given they have 6 arbitration-eligible RFAs remaining. The deadline to file for arbitration is 7/5, which takes the extended buyout period into August (I think August 4 is the final day for arbitration cases, depending on the number of filings).
     
  28. cshea

    cshea Member SoSH Member

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    I think the Rangers just ride it out with Beleskey. They are rebuilding and have ~$24 million in cap space at the moment. Hayes, Skjei, Spooner and Vesey and a backup G will take up some/most of that money when they sign, but the Rangers still should have a good chunk of available space. It probably makes more sense for them to run the contract out, especially if they have thoughts of buying Brendan Smith out either now or after the season. They have the financial ability to bury Beleskey back in the minors if they need to clear a roster spot.
     
  29. PedroSpecialK

    PedroSpecialK Comes at you like a tornado of hair and the NHL sa Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    Good call above on Beleskey, and an update after the McQuaid trade today.

    Assumptions:
    • Kampfer is sent down ($350k AHL contract) and rides it out in Providence
    • Bruins go with 14F, 7D, 2G on the roster
    • One of Studnicka / Frederic make the opening night roster (going with Studnick as Frederic is AHL-eligible)
    • Bjork starts the year in Providence and one of Stempniak / Winnik signs for $650k to be 14F
    Lineup

    Marchand - Bergeron - Donato
    DeBrusk - Krejci - Pastrnak
    Heinen - Studnicka - Backes
    Nordström - Kuraly - Wagner
    Winnik / Acciari

    Chara - McAvoy
    Moore - Miller
    Krug - Carlo
    Grzelcyk

    Rask
    Halak

    Cap space: $5.16m with three extra bodies on the roster all year - Gold will do some maneuvering to get them to a place where they can onboard a $10m cap hit by deadline day

    [​IMG]
     
  30. PedroSpecialK

    PedroSpecialK Comes at you like a tornado of hair and the NHL sa Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    Update for opening night, with the following changes

    • Studnicka to Providence
    • Bjork breaking camp with the big club
    • Vaakanainen breaking camp on the big club due to Krug's injury
    • Kampfer breaking camp as #8D
    • Winnik leaving for Switzerland
    • Bakos breaking camp on the big club on IR, with his salary counting against the cap due to the B's not being close enough to limit for LTIR to apply
    Cap hit is $76,105,668 right now, with ~$3.4m in cap space. That would prorate to >$10m come deadline day.

    [​IMG]
     

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