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The New Salary Cap Thread

Discussion in 'Rick Middleton's Pron 'Stache: Bruins Forum' started by PedroSpecialK, Jan 7, 2013.

  1. TFP

    TFP Dope Dope

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    17,060
    Wasn't trying (overly) bust chops, just pointing you to the post because it was pretty awesome and sums it all up better than anyone else could.
     
  2. ajml

    ajml Member SoSH Member

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    397
    Well it also kind of kills the thread since now there aren't any points left for any of us to make!
     
  3. TheStoryofYourRedRightAnkle

    TheStoryofYourRedRightAnkle Member SoSH Member

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    Well except that PSK is a brilliant hairy terrorist midget.
     
  4. headly

    headly Member SoSH Member

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    A little confused about Bobrovsky right here.  Did you mean Bryzgalov or do you mean that having Bryz for 8 years essentially blocks a guy like Bobrovsky?
     
  5. PedroSpecialK

    PedroSpecialK Comes at you like a tornado of hair and the NHL sa Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    Meant to say Bryzgalov, yeah. Got the #1 cop on the force on my mind.
     
  6. RIFan

    RIFan Member SoSH Member

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    Great analysis. Hard to take exception to any of your assumptions PSK. Personally, I don't think they'll dip into the FA market to get another top 6-ish winger unless it's under $2M or really short term (1-2 years). I think they'll give serious thought to Paille moving up to the 3rd line. My wild ass thought is that Knight can fill the 3rd line role. Injuries have taken some of the spotlight off him, but skill wise I think that is a great spot for him to apprentice. We didn't get anything out of the 3rd line offensively this year, so I don't think a Paille-Kelly- Knight line would be a step back. If he shows he's healthy, I think he gets a long look. NHL caliber speed, decent size, and projects to be a skilled grinder. If Horton can't be brought back and Pevs is a compliance buyout, they only have Seguin and Thornton (and maybe Caron)as right shooting wings.

    I'd like to see Spooner start the year in Providence and get 1st line minutes at center. He's got to show more consistency and further develop his PP game. I think Kelly comes back, which leaves the only spot for him is the 3rd line LW. I'd rather see him breakout in Prov and force his way on the team.
     
  7. sjaustin77

    sjaustin77 admired by a gingie SoSH Member

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    40
    Thoughts and notes:
     
    Unless another high salary is traded or Horton and Rask are taking major discounts at least 3 of Horton, Kelly, Peverley, Jagr and Ference are gone. If keeping Horton it is likely all 4 of the others are gone. I would probably keep Horton. I think it would take $5.5 million on the open market. That is higher than where he should rank, but he is a UFA, GM's are dumb, and you get paid for playoff performance. Hopefully he will stay for ~$5 million for 3 or 4 years. I don't see him getting under 4.75. You maximize your assets that way instead of letting him go for nothing while getting something for Kelly & Peverley. 
     
    I don't think either Kelly or Peverley should be amnestied. They should both have some value. They both had low individual shooting %, low on ice shooting %, and bad luck this year while playing a more defensive role than normal (Kelly only had 33% O-Zone faceoffs). They are both experienced veterans, 1+ cup winners, and very valuable on the Faceoffs & the PK. Both are versatile players that should bounce back to their career norms over a full season. They also went from Ryder to Pouliot - who is much better than usually given credit for, to Chris Bourque for a linemate.
     
    Speaking of Bourque as has been mentioned it looks like he is going to the KHL. This does not save the Bruins money on the cap. He hasn't been on the cap since he was sent to Providence. All a one-way deal means is that he was making an NHL salary whether in the NHL or the AHL, not that he counts on the cap either way. He was actually the perfect forward to keep in the press box as he is cheaper than any other current options. You just don't want him on the ice. 
     
    As far as I know bonuses are soft so they do gain salary that would carry over to next year if the bonuses are hit. Here is what I have for cap hits without bonuses and the Qualifying offers for some of the contenders for spots:
     
    Caron - $850,500 QO
    Daugavins - $698,500 QO
    Hamilton - $756,667
    Krug - $854,167
    Svedberg - $850,000
    Spooner & Knight - $785,000
    Camper, Camara, Koko, Cunningham are all between $636,667 & $767,500. 
     
    The Bruins likely need to use all of Savard's LTIR, and bonus money to "only" lose 3 or 4 good players. Hopefully the combo of players above + Soderberg and/or assets from Kelly, Pevs trade can pick up what they will lose. 
     
    Other contracts - Rask is likely getting close to 6 million as most others have assumed. That would make him the 6th highest paid goalie. He has claim to being higher, but is an RFA and has less games than everyone around him. Quick got 10 years - $5.8 million with worse regular season and playoff numbers but about 100 more games experience - and a cup. That is his closest comp and one of the most recent signings, but Rask can only go 8 years at most. 
     
    Assuming 5 to 7% growth on the cap for next year and going forward, the Bruins should be pretty good beyond this year. The big ones are Bergeron and Seidenberg. Then only Krejci (and Hamilton will be an RFA). Most of the others shouldn't be big dollar increases. Mostly RFAs and bottom six guys. Looch is up in 2016. 
     
    Bergeron getting $5.5 is a pipe dream unless he really is the most unselfish team player ever in the league. He should be and will become the Bruins highest paid forward. He is a top 20 forward in the league which would put him at $6.75 million. I am hoping because he is unselfish and getting 8 years that he takes a discount to $6.25 million. I think he could get $7+ if he wanted to. 
     
    Last thoughts - for those thinking trade Boychuk instead, I say no way. Yes he plays with Chara, but that also means he has faced the best competition. His playoff career has shown that he can play without Chara, he can step it up offensively, and that he is tough as nails. He is a great shutdown D worth every penny. People only think he is overpaid because he got more than Seids, and/or they only value offense. Just because Seids got underpaid doesn't mean Boychuk is overpaid. I think he is more important than Kelly or Pevs.
     
    PSK you mentioned Campbell. Last I saw was 6 to 8 week recovery and ready for camp. It has already been a couple weeks overall and 10 days since surgery. Shouldn't have any issues with LTIR there. 
     
    I also agree Jagr will not be back. As much as I like him, I just don't see the money at his age or to keep him over Horton. They will go younger and cheaper, maybe with someone else's buyout if Horton isn't brought back. 
     
    Svedberg or a cheap backup are the likely goalie options. I think multiple factors will see Khudobin leave. Russia, price, chance for more starts. I don't think he gets much more than he made this year, but the B's need every penny. He still only has 21 career games played. All he has proven is that he is a decent backup over 14 games on a good team. Someone would really be taking a chance giving him starter money and I don't think there are many spots available anyway. He will likely get high end backup money for 1 year with a chance to compete for the starting job, or go to Russia for more money. If they definitely aren't signing him, I would try to trade his rights to get a lottery ticket back. 
     
  8. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Good analysis, sjaustin.  I disagree on Horton/Jagr.  I'd rather pay Jagr on a one year deal (which is what he has taken the ast couple of years) than lock Horton in at top dollar for his decline.  If they pay market value for Horton this offseason I think they will regret it during the last few years of the deal.  I agree they can sign one or the other but not both of them.  
     
  9. AMcGhie

    AMcGhie Set Adrift on Memory Bliss SoSH Member

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    So is there no way to give rask 6M/yr without a compliance buyout?  
     
  10. FL4WL3SS

    FL4WL3SS Member SoSH Member

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  11. kenneycb

    kenneycb Hates Goose Island Beer; Loves Backdoor Play SoSH Member

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    Is there a deadline for amnesty buyouts, as in something more definitive than before the season starts, or could they change course depending on how things play out?
     
  12. PedroSpecialK

    PedroSpecialK Comes at you like a tornado of hair and the NHL sa Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    Per the CBA, the buyout period for compliance buyouts is the same as regular buyouts, and takes place from the later of June 15 or 48 hours after the SCF (i.e. tonight) through June 30 at 5 PM EST.
     
    That's not a ton of time to find a trade partner for Peverley (not to mention one that either isn't on his partial no-trade list or one that he'd agree to waive the NTC for). I really hope this doesn't mean they're considering withholding salary in a trade.
     
  13. PedroSpecialK

    PedroSpecialK Comes at you like a tornado of hair and the NHL sa Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    And just as quickly as it's suggested, this potential loophole has been closed.
     

     
  14. Dummy Hoy

    Dummy Hoy Angry Pissbum SoSH Member

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    Solid analysis by sjaustin...just a thought though- isn't the presumption that the cap will continue to go up false? I'm pretty sure the number is scheduled to go down, which is partially why the buyouts were put into place.

    .
     
  15. PedroSpecialK

    PedroSpecialK Comes at you like a tornado of hair and the NHL sa Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    I believe the stipulations were put into the CBA that the '13-'14 cap would be $64,300,000, and that after that it would scale based on HRR figures - all of which seem to be trending back towards the $70.3m and above cap level. 
     
    edit: here's the passage
     

     
  16. j44thor

    j44thor Member SoSH Member

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    No I think the cap will go up next season.  It is down this season because they only played 1/2 a season so revenue was obviously way down.
    Based on ratings and attendance I assume they will be able to get it back up to the 70M range next season.
     
  17. AMcGhie

    AMcGhie Set Adrift on Memory Bliss SoSH Member

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    2,892
    H/T to Capgeek for helping me create this, but:
    CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER
    My Custom Lineup
    FORWARDS
    Milan Lucic ($6.000m) / David Krejci ($5.250m) / Loui Eriksson ($4.250m) 
    Brad Marchand ($4.500m) / Patrice Bergeron ($5.000m) / 
    Carl Soderberg ($1.008m) / Chris Kelly ($3.000m) / 
    Shawn Thornton ($1.100m) / Gregory Campbell ($1.600m) / Daniel Paille ($1.300m) 
    DEFENSEMEN
    Zdeno Chara ($6.917m) / Johnny Boychuk ($3.367m) 
    Dennis Seidenberg ($3.250m) / Torey Krug ($1.704m) 
    Adam McQuaid ($1.567m) / Dougie Hamilton ($1.494m) 
    Matt Bartkowski ($0.650m) / 
    GOALTENDERS
    Tuukka Rask ($7.500m) 
    Niklas Svedberg ($1.000m) 
    ------
    CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
    (these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
    SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $60,456,667; BONUSES: $1,737,500
    CAP SPACE (19-man roster): $5,580,833
     
    I'm making these assumptions:
    1) I just dropped Savard from the roster since he'll be LTIR'd and will basically be cap-invisible.
    2)  Tuukka re-ups for 7@7.5M
     
    That leaves 5.5M for three spots (2nd line wing, 3rd line wing, 13th forward).
    Jagr?  Ryder?  Spooner? Knight?
     
    Did I fuck up my calculations?
     
     
    edit: also, if Bergeron signs an extension, is his cap # changed this year or does it only apply during the extension?  (or only if the current year's salary is changed does it count this year?)
     
  18. PedroSpecialK

    PedroSpecialK Comes at you like a tornado of hair and the NHL sa Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    Bergeron's cap # will only change when this contract is up, so it'll be $6.5m or so come the start of '14-'15.
     
    I don't think Tuukka gets more than $7m AAV - I'd say $7m is the max really, and I am guessing the delay is either to get as limited an NTC/NMC or possible or to knock that AAV down from $7m.
     
    With Tuukka at $7m AAV, Reilly Smith penciled in as the 13th forward, Spooner on the 3rd line, and an open spot on the 2nd line RW position, the Bruins have $2,248,332 in cap space.
     
  19. AMcGhie

    AMcGhie Set Adrift on Memory Bliss SoSH Member

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    2,892
    Bah, capgeek is getting piled on worse than TFP's mom.  Savard's contract is basically invisible because of the LTIR-clause, right?  
     
    Also, are you including bonuses in your cap room calculations becuase of the Bonus-rollover stuff?  I'm trying to match your numbers up to the ones I'm getting out of CapGeek
     
  20. FL4WL3SS

    FL4WL3SS Member SoSH Member

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    10,789
    With the Bergeron and Rask extensions, the Bruins are over the cap. They'll put Savard on LTIR, but what else will Chia do to get the cap down?
     
  21. TheShynessClinic

    TheShynessClinic SoSH's Doug Neidermeyer SoSH Member

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    The Bergeron extension has no effect on this years cap.
     
  22. FL4WL3SS

    FL4WL3SS Member SoSH Member

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    They're still over the cap.
     
  23. AMcGhie

    AMcGhie Set Adrift on Memory Bliss SoSH Member

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    Extension #'s only kick in when the extensions do.  Rask's 7M is on this year, but bergeron's 6.5 kicks in next year.  Bonuses also don't count as cap numbers (so 4.2M for Iginla, 750k for dougie, and 850k for Krug) unless the total is over 7.5% of the cap (4,822,500).
     
  24. PedroSpecialK

    PedroSpecialK Comes at you like a tornado of hair and the NHL sa Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    Here's an updated look
     
    [​IMG]
     
    I believe 35+ bonuses are accrued at season's end and counted against the cap, and not as they are activated. Otherwise, the Bruins would have $0 space at the deadline
     
  25. cshea

    cshea Member SoSH Member

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    21,179
    Cap geek tweeted a bit about this yesterday. Essentially, the Bruins are fine. They are over the cap, but don't need to dump any mpre salary. They can get creative and have a few paper transactions to send guys to Providence on day 1 to build a $64.3 million roster, and then LTIR Savard. Sending Hamilton/Krug down for a day seems reasonable and should allow this to work.
     
  26. PedroSpecialK

    PedroSpecialK Comes at you like a tornado of hair and the NHL sa Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    They can LTIR Savard before the season as he has a pre-existing hockey injury. The only issue Savard provides is that he counts against the 10% offseason cap cushion, but bonuses don't count against it otherwise the Bruins would be in danger of exceeding the 110% cap threshold.
     
    edit - here is the illustration from page 292 of the CBA
     

     
  27. AMcGhie

    AMcGhie Set Adrift on Memory Bliss SoSH Member

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    PSK, you need to add in the $1,062,500 in bonus overages that count against the cap as well,  That's why they're technically over the cap now but can easily hide it by demoting Krug or Hamilton (negating their Salary and Bonus temporarily) on day 1.  
     
    Iginla: 4.2M
    Krug: 850K
    Hamilton: 750k
    Knight(or Spooner, same #): 85k
     
    Total bonus possible: $5,885,000
    Bonus Overage Cap: $4,822,500
    Overage Penalty: $1,062,500
     
     
    Edit: Unless I'm completely misunderstanding the 7.5% Bonus Cushion.
     
  28. PedroSpecialK

    PedroSpecialK Comes at you like a tornado of hair and the NHL sa Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    All of those players' bonuses are counted in their AAV figures except for Iginla. I am under the impression that his bonuses are paid to him as they are met but are totaled at year's end for cap purposes, at which point the amount that exceeds the remaining cap space counts against the '14-'15 cap. The figures under the individual years (and not AAV) are their salaries - just realized I didn't adjust this for Rask and Bergeron's contracts, so I'll upload an edited version.
     
  29. AMcGhie

    AMcGhie Set Adrift on Memory Bliss SoSH Member

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    Is special for ELC Bonuses vs 35+ Bonuses?
     
  30. PedroSpecialK

    PedroSpecialK Comes at you like a tornado of hair and the NHL sa Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    Yeah 35+ bonuses have no cap and can have their cap overages count as a penalty on the next year's cap while ELC bonuses max out as follows and can't count against future years' salary caps:
     
     
     
     

    That $2,850,000 max coupled with the $925,000 ELC cap gives the $3,775,000 ELC cap hit max.
     
    Exhibit 5 starts on page 326
     
  31. AMcGhie

    AMcGhie Set Adrift on Memory Bliss SoSH Member

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    (I repeat things to make sure I understand them)
     
    So basically Krug and Hamilton's potential bonuses count against the cap during the season, even if they aren't realized at the end.  Their cap #'s at the end of the season will end up being their base salary plus whatever bonuses they earn.  Iginla's bonuses do not count against the cap during the season, but if those bonuses end up putting the Bruins over the cap at the end of the year, they will have to forfeit that amount of cap $ from next year's cap. 
     
    Savard basically doesn't matter because he can be LTIR'd at any point, and the only reason he really matters is that his contract still counts against the cap+10% offseason limit regardless of whether he is on LTIR or not. 
     
    That sound correct?
     
  32. PedroSpecialK

    PedroSpecialK Comes at you like a tornado of hair and the NHL sa Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    Yup, as I understand it, that's all good.
     
  33. j44thor

    j44thor Member SoSH Member

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    Actually any ELC bonuses (Hamilton/Krug) can be carried over to next season as an "overage" penalty as well.
     
    The Flyers have a 182K overage this season due to Coutourier and Braydon Schenn.
    http://www.csnphilly.com/hockey-philadelphia-flyers/flyers-have-2012-13-performance-bonus-overage
     
    For this reason I believe only the base salary is factored into the cap hit once the season starts.  I'm not sure how they are factored for the 10% off-season hit.  This should adjust Krug's hit to 850K and Hamilton to $737,500 for the upcoming season with the remaining $$ falling into the bonus territory.  
     
  34. PedroSpecialK

    PedroSpecialK Comes at you like a tornado of hair and the NHL sa Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    23,966
    Good catch, you're right about that - however, yet another issue for the Bruins' cap situation is the 7.5% bonus cushion limit, which is $4,822,500 with the $64.3m cap. Assuming Iginla hits his $4.2m, that leaves $622,500 in bonus 'overages' that can carry over to '14-'15. 
     
    Most of these A-level ELC bonuses are unable to be attained by nature of the minimums imposed on their activation, and even those minimums may be higher for Krug/Hamilton than the ones laid out in the CBA. I would imagine bonus (i) could come into play for Hamilton, the all-rookie team for Krug, and maybe the +/- one for both:
     
     
     
    I doubt any of the B-level bonuses in their contracts would be attainable - this is the activation criteria for any of those: 
     
     

     
    All this to say - yeah, they'll be able to carry over a portion of those bonuses if they are reached, but I don't think it's likely that Krug/Hamilton reach a significant amount of their potential bonuses.
     
    edit: To answer your other question, bonuses are not factored into the 110% offseason cap.
     
  35. AMcGhie

    AMcGhie Set Adrift on Memory Bliss SoSH Member

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    2,892
     
    Yeah, the Bruins had one in 2010 because of Marchand/Seguin's bonuses as well.  All the bonuses get counted at the end of the season.  Iginla's is the largest, and also most reachable, but the overage calculation is the sum of all three, not just Iginla's.  But for Cap #'s, Dougie's and Krug's count, but Iginla's don't in-season as I understand it.
     
  36. j44thor

    j44thor Member SoSH Member

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    8,789
     
    Not according to Capgeek which is the most accurate place to get cap info.  I doubt they are wrong on that.  The interesting thing is the 7.5% bonus max which will be largely consumed by the Iginla bonus though I imagine the Savard LTIR will help defray that as well.
     
  37. thehitcat

    thehitcat Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    1,502
    So I'm assuming no Seidenberg update because the extension doesn't kick in until next year?  I kid I kid it's just I miss PSK's updates to this thread and his table. 
     
  38. AMcGhie

    AMcGhie Set Adrift on Memory Bliss SoSH Member

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    Also capgeek has his spreadsheet basically, but for every team. 
     
  39. PedroSpecialK

    PedroSpecialK Comes at you like a tornado of hair and the NHL sa Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    Figure it's time for an update and rampant assumptions/conjecture. Hooray!
     
    [​IMG]
     
    Projected lineup:
     
    Lucic - Krejci - Eriksson
    Marchand - Bergeron - Smith
    Paille - Söderberg - Fraser
    Campbell - Spooner - Florek
    Caron
     
    Chara - Hamilton
    Seidenberg - Boychuk
    Krug - Miller
    Trotman
     
    Rask
    Svedberg
     
    The purple highlighted players are trade candidates. I don't see this team becoming better by moving Boychuk in any scenario, so for me it's Kelly, McQuaid, and Bartkowski on the way out with maybe a couple picks coming back if they're lucky. No major loss IMO.
     
    Here's the adjusted cap picture:
     
    [​IMG]
     
    This also allows the B's to maximize the use of Savard's LTIR once he gets put on it on Day 1. The way it works:
     
    Smith, Florek, and Caron are agreed-to in principle at that $4.004m - however, their contracts are not registered until Day 1 of the new Cap. These guys are just an example, essentially they'll hold off on registering whichever of those RFA signings add up to the sum closest to $4.027m until Day 1 of the Cap. Major tip of the cap to Dom Tiano, who raised this scenario as a possibility the past couple of summers and has done the vast majority of the heavy lifting cap-wise when it comes to the B's.
     
    I'd say that Campbell is a candidate to be moved as well, but the leadership core would take an even more serious hit losing him in addition to Kelly, Iginla, and Thornton in one offseason.
     
    I don't mind this strategy given their cap reality. They'll bank as much of that $900k cap space until the deadline as possible, at which point it turns into ~$3.5m in cap hit they can acquire without anyone coming back.
     
  40. AMcGhie

    AMcGhie Set Adrift on Memory Bliss SoSH Member

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  41. TheStoryofYourRedRightAnkle

    TheStoryofYourRedRightAnkle Member SoSH Member

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    Where's the option to have Campbell shot into the sun?
     
  42. Titoschew

    Titoschew Member SoSH Member

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    I see we're into the Lamierello years of the Savard deal.  
     
  43. FelixMantilla

    FelixMantilla reincarnated mr hate SoSH Member

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  44. mikeford

    mikeford woolwich! SoSH Member

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    25,074
    And now... it's likely going DOWN
     
     
  45. lexrageorge

    lexrageorge Member SoSH Member

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    Amazing.  
     
    NBA salary cap has already grown from $58M to $63M, will likely be at $66M in 2016, and will then greatly expand. 
     
    NFL salary cap is projected to break $150M by 2016, and forecasted to rise by $10M per season after that.
     
    MLB luxury tax limit has hit its peak at $189M, but will certainly not go down anytime soon, as revenues are expected to continue to increase. 
     
    The NHL is blatantly incompetent.  
     
  46. kenneycb

    kenneycb Hates Goose Island Beer; Loves Backdoor Play SoSH Member

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    Or highly pegged to the falling CAD.
     
  47. veritas

    veritas Member SoSH Member

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    Yeah, but that they didn't protect themselves from this sort of situation is evidence of their incompetence.
     
  48. TheShynessClinic

    TheShynessClinic SoSH's Doug Neidermeyer SoSH Member

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    Man. The Bruins need to move one or both of Lucic and Seidenberg if they want any chance of signing anyone of worth.

    This sucks.
     
  49. j44thor

    j44thor Member SoSH Member

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    How do they protect themselves move all the franchises out of Canada? Seems silly to blame the nhl for something they have zero control over.
     
  50. kenneycb

    kenneycb Hates Goose Island Beer; Loves Backdoor Play SoSH Member

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    My guess is he's referring to hedging against the CAD.
     

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