2017 All Along the Hightower: Princes Kept Their View

Mugsy's Jock

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Thinking the potential impact of a very expensive Hightower deal or (worse) a Hightower defection could have such significant downstream effects on the Pats' roster construction, free agent strategy, Jimmy G options, and draft plans that I'm taking the bold step of breaking our Super Bowl defensive hero into his own thread.

Also I'm starting to freak out a little that the Hightower deal might not get done, so I figured I'd break out his story from the omnibus free agents thread so everybody can help me get a grip on myself.

Reiss offers a typically reasoned take on the state of the negotiation today:

http://www.espn.com/blog/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4801332/donta-hightowers-free-agent-process-could-resemble-devin-mccourtys
 

RedOctober3829

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Thinking the potential impact of a very expensive Hightower deal or (worse) a Hightower defection could have such significant downstream effects on the Pats' roster construction, free agent strategy, Jimmy G options, and draft plans that I'm taking the bold step of breaking our Super Bowl defensive hero into his own thread.

Also I'm starting to freak out a little that the Hightower deal might not get done, so I figured I'd break out his story from the omnibus free agents thread so everybody can help me get a grip on myself.

Reiss offers a typically reasoned take on the state of the negotiation today:

http://www.espn.com/blog/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4801332/donta-hightowers-free-agent-process-could-resemble-devin-mccourtys
Reiss is absolutely right. The Patriots don't want to commit that tag amount on a player who is injury prone albeit an important part of the defense. Coming into the offseason, I thought they might use a franchise tag on him but everything I've read and heard from media who are in the know in Foxboro recently leads me to believe he's not going to get tagged and he'll instead explore the market. I just hope that like DMC that he comes back to BB at the end and they can work something out. If he goes elsewhere, I'm also confident that BB has plans B through Z to use the $60 million in cap space plus the draft to come up with a suitable replacement.
 

TheoShmeo

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This is not going to make you feel any better, Mugsy. But it's also just spit balling and worth what you pay to read it, if not less.

My guess is that they will lose Hightower.

One, I do not think they will franchise him (or anyone else this year). I would like to be wrong on that and don't view the $2-4 mm overpay to be that big of a deal given how much better High is than the currently existing alternatives on the roster.

Two, the body language suggests to me that Hightower is going to require a fully priced deal to sign in NE. I do not see him leaving any money on the table for the privilege of playing in a system he knows and where he knows he will have the chance to win. Make no mistake, I am not denigrating Donta with this. I am just calling it as I t think it is. I base this on his few words in interviews and on the ESPN NFL Insider or whatever it is called show when he was interviewed the week after the game. And a few other interviews. It wasn't so much what he said. It was how he said it.

My concern goes beyond Donta Hightower, however. Much of this incredible ride since the 2001 season has been built on having a deep, talented roster, with the guys on the upper end of the salary echelon being wiling to take a little less than they could get on the market. Brady has consistently done that. I get the sense that we might see less of that from the group of guys who are in line for pay days. Collins and Jones being gone is likely in part based on a judgment that both were going to require fully priced deals. Clearly, they could never keep everyone, and part is also likely tied to BB's decision to prioritize other players.

Said differently, I think it's going to be very interesting to see which of the Butler, Branch, Hightower and Ryan group stays, and whether any of them make it any easier on the Pats with the contracts.

Lest there be any confusion, this is not a five alarm post and I am hardly in panic mode. BB is the best HC/GM in sports, and has demonstrated repeatedly an incredible ability to manage through new problems. I just see this current batch of rising stars to be a slightly different kettle of fish than he has dealt with previously, and am fascinated to see how it will all play out.

PS:

As a related point, our most recent memory of Hightower is incredibly positive. He made one of the key plays of the SB (and the last one for that matter). But two things. One, that play was equally on the RB who flat out ignored him. If he even chips Hightower, Ryan likely passes to a wide open Gabriel and the Falcons win the SB. Two, Hightower IS injury prone. How many games did he miss last year? And how much did the Pats defense fall off in those games? There is an interesting article or exercise in there somewhere. My recollection is that the Pats D did not fall off much in the games Hightower missed last year. But I may not have that right.
 
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Tony C

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first, love the thread title.

second, I think this is the right strategy -- Hightower's a hell of a player and a perfect player for BB/the Pats' system. He's highly respected and will get big offers out there, but without the big counting stats and with a history of getting dinged, I like the Pats' odds if (speculation) they're saying: go find what the market will bear and give us a chance to match it -- we want you to get what you deserve. My sense (guess) is that # might be a bit less than what Hightower would expect -- i.e., a significant but not mega deal. That'd be best for all concerned.

The flip is there are some teams with a lot of cap space who may need to throw money around just to use it.
 

tims4wins

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first, love the thread title.

second, I think this is the right strategy -- Hightower's a hell of a player and a perfect player for BB/the Pats' system. He's highly respected and will get big offers out there, but without the big counting stats and with a history of getting dinged, I like the Pats' odds if (speculation) they're saying: go find what the market will bear and give us a chance to match it -- we want you to get what you deserve. My sense (guess) is that # might be a bit less than what Hightower would expect -- i.e., a significant but not mega deal. That'd be best for all concerned.

The flip is there are some teams with a lot of cap space who may need to throw money around just to use it.
Right, hopefully this ends up like DMC a couple years ago, but I could see DH leaving too
 

j44thor

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I think his "Championship pedigree" is going to drive up his price tag to something silly. A team like Jax with a young talented defense could really use a vet like Hightower and have plenty of cap space (70+M) to overpay.

Personally I'd like to see them tag him since he probably isn't going to age well.
I'd rather get one yr 15M out of him than resign him for 3-4yrs at any number he is going to accept.

Unless of course he is now a TB12 client, if that is the case a 10yr contract would make sense.
 

Hoodie Sleeves

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Collins and Jones being gone is likely in part based on a judgment that both were going to require fully priced deals. Clearly, they could never keep everyone, and part is also likely tied to BB's decision to prioritize other players..
I just can't really agree with this.

Collins is gone because he wouldn't actually do his job. That's rule number 1 in NE, and I don't think the money had much to do with it at that point - BB just wanted him gone. I think if it had been largely a money issue - he would have been traded in the off-season. Maybe things would have gone differently if he had been extended, but there's no real point in arguing alternative history.

Jones is more complicated, and value was a factor, but I think any value discussion was largely shortcutted by his incident (which happened during the playoffs) and the perception that football wasn't as important to him as it should have been.


As to Hightower, he's clearly a football guy, and I think there's much more of an actual cost/value question here. I'm with j44thor - he's exactly the sort of guy you franchise if you aren't sure - what you're trying to avoid with an injury prone player is the Jerod Mayo situation where an injury drastically reduces his effectiveness and you've got multiple years left. Overpaying a guy for one year just isn't an issue.

If I'm going to prioritize someone, it's Butler. He's made almost no money at this point, so I think he'd be more amenable to a deal that gets him some decent bonus money as an RFA at less than market, and he's IMO a more important part than Hightower (largely because he has played roughly 98% of the snaps over the last two years, while Hightower has played 60%).
 

Super Nomario

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The problem with franchising Hightower is that the LB tag number includes not just off-ball LB but also the edge-rushing LB like Von Miller and Justin Houston.
 

dbn

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Who's the best available LB at pick #12?
After reading your post my first thought was "that won't help them next year, Patriots LB draftees usually take a season or so to get into the mix". So I looked at PFR and it looks like I'm wrong. Perhaps I'm thinking they usually don't play a ton at the start of their rookie season, but ramp up as the year progresses. Anyway, here are the rounds 1-2 LB picks and games started in their rookie seasons during the BB years:

2013: Collins, pick #52, 8 GS
2012: Hightower, pick #25, 13 GS
2010: Cunningham, pick #53,11 GS
2010: Spikes, pick #62, 8 GS
2008: Mayo, pick #10, 16 GS
 

tims4wins

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The problem with franchising Hightower is that the LB tag number includes not just off-ball LB but also the edge-rushing LB like Von Miller and Justin Houston.
Right, but I think I would be in favor of the transition tag, giving them a chance to match. But of course I would imagine they would expect that DH will give them an opportunity to match regardless, like McCourty did.
 

Pxer

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I think if there's any indication that Hightower prefers to leave, you have to at least transition tag him. It would be nice to know that you can match a contract if his market doesn't materialize as much as anticipated (I mean, why not unless he had agreed to come back to the Pats a la McCourty).

I'd franchise DH, even at a 14.5MM number. I think he's that important, and that effectively blocks anyone from giving him long-term guarantees. Given the Pats cap space, I think they can afford DH for a year at that salary, and it keeps the money short. If he wants more security, this gives the Pats some leverage in negotiating.

Long story short, it would be a huge hit to lose Hightower.
 

mauf

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It only makes sense to use the transition tag with a player who might accept less to play elsewhere. Haven't seen anything to suggest DH wouldn't prefer to stay in Foxborough if the money is the same -- and if he does feel that way, I'll bet BB would rather see him go than have a guy on a market-rate deal who doesn't want to be there.
 

nothumb

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Put me in the camp that wouldn't mind franchising him. I think the other downside to losing High, aside from what's been mentioned, is just the learning curve that the next guy to wear the dot would likely face. The Pats defense got better as the year went on, I think at least partially because they were more able to disguise and execute various schemes. With any LB stepping up behind him being pretty new by definition, even if he's good I worry about the leadership and experience drop off.

But I don't think it would be the end of the world, I just place a bit of value on the continuity there in addition to the performance.
 

Hoodie Sleeves

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I'd franchise DH, even at a 14.5MM number.
Jamie Collins just got $12.5/year on a 4 year deal.

For a long term deal on Hightower, you're looking $10+/year. $14.5M for one year with no long term risk (for a player who has injury issues) is a steal
 

Super Nomario

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Jamie Collins just got $12.5/year on a 4 year deal.

For a long term deal on Hightower, you're looking $10+/year. $14.5M for one year with no long term risk (for a player who has injury issues) is a steal
This isn't baseball - length of contract favors the team. Collins got 4-years, $50MM, but the bonus money is only $5MM and the salary is guaranteed in the first two years, when you wouldn't expect him to be cut anyway. So, it's a 2-year, $27 MM deal, or a 3-year, $37.5 MM, or a 4-year, $50 MM. It's cheaper than doubling the LB tag number (and much cheaper than franchising twice), but you also get two additional years at a reasonable price if you want. Basically, if you would to the franchise tag, you should probably be willing to do the Collins deal.
 

Harry Hooper

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I get the vibe that Hightower would prefer to play in a warmer clime, so letting him go out and field offers means he's most likely gone.
 

Harry Hooper

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The fact he was too cold to go to the parade likely.
No it was something else they were talking about {earlier season} on the radio the other day, sorry for lack of detail. I'd much prefer his return, but BB will cook up something.

As noted above, Butler's durability has been sensational the past 2 seasons.
 

JokersWildJIMED

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I think the vibe is that the Pats and Hightower are currently far apart...unlikely to sign...big loss.
 

E5 Yaz

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Right, but I think I would be in favor of the transition tag, giving them a chance to match. But of course I would imagine they would expect that DH will give them an opportunity to match regardless, like McCourty did.
As Reiss wrote this morning

That wouldn't necessarily mean Hightower and the Patriots won't ultimately come to an agreement on an extension, but it strengthens the possibility that Hightower would first have a chance to explore the open market and assess other options. That would make his situation similar to what safety Devin McCourty experienced two offseasons ago when the Patriots didn't assign him the franchise tag, and McCourty fielded offers from other clubs, but also kept an open dialogue with the Patriots before eventually striking an extension to return.

http://www.espn.com/blog/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4801332/donta-hightowers-free-agent-process-could-resemble-devin-mccourtys
 

RedOctober3829

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Mike Giardi is extremely tied in down in Foxboro.

Michael Giardi‏Verified account @MikeGiardi 18m18 minutes ago
Hightower and the Pats discussed a deal and couldn't come to a long term agreement.

Michael Giardi‏Verified account @MikeGiardi 4m4 minutes ago
There were discussions between Hightower and the Pats. There's a decent gap though between the two sides.

Michael Giardi‏Verified account @MikeGiardi 3m3 minutes ago
Also don't get the sense this is it between Hightower and Pats. See McCourty situation last year (something @tomecurran has referenced b4)
 

Dr. Gonzo

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That Hightower will test free agency, see what's out there for offers, and come back to the Pats to see what they do with their offer.
 

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I've hoped all along that they would franchise Bennett at $9 million for 1 year of post-surgery Gronk Insurance, and let Hightower test the market -- and sign him a la McCourty if they deem it reasonable. I think that would be the ideal scenario right now.
 

dbn

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As a Patriots fan, I of course want him to sign a 1-year deal for the veteran minimum with unlimited team options at the same pay, but in reality I think the team and player are handling this the right way (unless there are nasty behind-the-doors stuff going on). Feel the market out, come back and talk, let's try to do what best for everybody. If the Patriots aren't willing to match his most-favored offer: good luck, thanks for your time here. If the combination of the offer and familiarity of the Patriots wins him over: great, glad you're not going anywhere.

"Why not? Why can't you? Shit, everything else in the world gets sold without people taking advantage, scamming, lying, doing each other dirty. Why it got to be that way with this?"
 

nothumb

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I've hoped all along that they would franchise Bennett at $9 million for 1 year of post-surgery Gronk Insurance, and let Hightower test the market -- and sign him a la McCourty if they deem it reasonable. I think that would be the ideal scenario right now.
Given the amount of cap space they have it's hard for me to understand why they wouldn't tag Marty if they aren't using it on someone else. Unless they think he would have a huge problem with it or something.
 

tims4wins

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Given the amount of cap space they have it's hard for me to understand why they wouldn't tag Marty if they aren't using it on someone else. Unless they think he would have a huge problem with it or something.
I agree with this as well, bring him back for 1 more year then say thanks for your service
 

Mugsy's Jock

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I've never read a Belichick draft remotely accurately, but I'd want to take a TE no later than Round 3 if Bennett were to leave. If he stayed, Butt at the end of Round 3 or some other project in Round 4+ could be a great transition plan.
 

TheoShmeo

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I agree with this as well, bring him back for 1 more year then say thanks for your service
Given how important the TE position to this offense, the likelihood that Gronk will again miss some time next season and that Bennett is a very good TE, and given the cap room, I agree strongly that they should franchise him now that they did not franchise Hightower.

I've been away from my computer for a while...are there reports on this either way?
 

heavyde050

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So if the Pats end up losing Hightower after trading Jones and Collins - what are BB's options on defense.
I trust BB especially after another SB win, but I just hope he doesn't use the cap room in some crazy fashion (like paying Jimmy). Acceptable uses would be locking up Butler.
 

BaseballJones

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So if the Pats end up losing Hightower after trading Jones and Collins - what are BB's options on defense.
I trust BB especially after another SB win, but I just hope he doesn't use the cap room in some crazy fashion (like paying Jimmy). Acceptable uses would be locking up Butler.
It was kind of crazy to trade Seymour. It was kind of crazy to release Milloy right at the start of the season. It was kind of crazy to trade Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins.

But obviously crazy in a "Bill Belichick knows what the hell he is doing even if it makes no sense to the rest of us" kind of way.

If he lets Hightower go, I really have no choice at this point but to say that the odds are good that somehow, some way, at the end of the day, it's a good thing for the Patriots. Or at least not a bad thing. Or...even if it is, that BB will figure it all out.
 

dcmissle

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I could see the Patriots viewing Bennett on a franchise tag as a less than ideal cultural fit.
Yup.

This approach is smart. They are not putting constraints on the guy, which makes it easier to talk once the player has received some offers. Maybe he'll re-sign, maybe he won't, but you are not burning bridges, and this is a decent and fair way to treat people.

No one guy is indispensable, with one exception at the moment. Some day there probably will be no exceptions.

Spend the money they will, somehow, and I'm not going to presume they will do it foolishly.
 

heavyde050

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It was kind of crazy to trade Seymour. It was kind of crazy to release Milloy right at the start of the season. It was kind of crazy to trade Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins.

But obviously crazy in a "Bill Belichick knows what the hell he is doing even if it makes no sense to the rest of us" kind of way.

If he lets Hightower go, I really have no choice at this point but to say that the odds are good that somehow, some way, at the end of the day, it's a good thing for the Patriots. Or at least not a bad thing. Or...even if it is, that BB will figure it all out.
Great post and I agree with all the examples mentioned.
I am just really hoping for a strong title defense and that will take allocating some of the cap room to the defense.
I was mostly curious where others think the $$ will go if not to Hightower.
 
I get the vibe that Hightower would prefer to play in a warmer clime, so letting him go out and field offers means he's most likely gone.
Ok, I gotta ask where you're getting that vibe from?
Today on CSN Phil Perry and Mike Giardi mentioned that Hightower has expressed that he really doesn't like playing in cold weather. I have no idea if it's a huge deal to him but apparently he's brought it up a couple times to them.
 

NortheasternPJ

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Straight from Hightower on New England and the weather.


Of course he has to say he wants to be back but it is what it is.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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I'd like to see Bennett back. $10 million plus giving up a good compensatory pick seems like a pretty steep price, though, when we have the best player at the position. (If Coby Fleener fetched a 4th round compensatory pick, I bet Bennett will give a good chance at a third rounder.)

We need Gronk insurance, for sure. $10 million and a pick seems like an awful high price to pay for it.
 

Stitch01

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Today on CSN Phil Perry and Mike Giardi mentioned that Hightower has expressed that he really doesn't like playing in cold weather. I have no idea if it's a huge deal to him but apparently he's brought it up a couple times to them.
That was his stated reason for missing the parade too.