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The Kids Are Clutch, The Future Is Very Bright (we're gonna be okay)

Discussion in 'Red Sox Forum' started by Snodgrass'Muff, Oct 9, 2017.

  1. sean1562

    sean1562 lurker

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    Looking through the teams who could possibly be competing next year, I cannot see a single team that would be interested in making a JBJ trade. Which team do you think he would be an upgrade on? Even for a prospect or two in the lower top 100? The Rangers, maybe?
     
  2. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

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    Possibly the Rockies if they move Blackmon to RF to replace Cargo. But they also have guys like David Dahl and Reimel Tapia, so even that isn't an ideal landing spot.

    I don't think the quality of the team will affect his destination. I think the vastness of the outfield is the bigger consideration. He is a middle of the pack, at best CF unless some team gambles that he is closer to his 2016 talent. At some point his career wRC+ of 93 - close to what we just saw in his age 27 season line has to hold more weight.

    He'd be helpful in SF as well.
     
    #52 grimshaw, Oct 11, 2017
    Last edited: Oct 11, 2017
  3. sean1562

    sean1562 lurker

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    That is why I dont think trading him is a good decision. I dont think there will be much interest and the red sox are the team that will value him the highest because we know how great he can be when he is hot. We need a power hitting 1B, if JD wants to join and learn 1B, great. But signing him for LF and jettisoning JBJ for whatever we can get does not significantly improve this roster.
     
  4. Sprowl

    Sprowl gentleman, scholar, slumpbuster and glutton Dope

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    But less surprising if a team gets rid of runners on base by having them run into outs.
     
  5. Kielty's Last Pitch

    Kielty's Last Pitch lurker

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    He was playing on more than a broken toe. By continuing to play with the injury, he wound up hurting his knee and may require knee surgery this offseason.

    So between possible major knee surgery for Pedroia, possible knee surgery for Moreland, possible TJ surgery for Price, and who knows what for Mookie's wrist, there's plenty of uncertainty heading into 2018. Health will have a lot to do with how bright the future will be.
     
  6. tonyarmasjr

    tonyarmasjr Member SoSH Member

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    If 2015-2016 wasn't putting it all together, then you're saying he could be a 7+ win player? We probably shouldn't trade him then. His current performance is not as good as it gets. He was better the last two years.

    The only way his career numbers should hold any significant weight is if you believe his first season-plus (which is about 30% of his career numbers to date) in which he had a 50 wRC+ with a 29% K rate and .084 ISO are anywhere near an approximation of current or future ability. If that's the case, then we'd better sell high now for a bag of balls. This year should certainly be weighted (most) heavily, but we've also seen him be quite a bit better in the two before that. I would say that he's at worst a middle of the pack CF. That's what he was this year. Do you think he'll be better or worse going forward? I believe we should expect something in between this year and the previous two - say, a low 100s wRC+. And that makes him a roughly 4 fWAR player, or easily a top ten CF in MLB making ~$6M next year. How his value fits into the Red Sox roster construction or the trade market, I'm not really sure. But I don't think viewing him simply as the player he was in 2017 accurately gauges his value. If that's how he's viewed by other teams, then it doesn't make much sense to trade him for the meager return that would come back.
     
  7. BestGameEvah

    BestGameEvah Member SoSH Member

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  8. sean1562

    sean1562 lurker

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    Due to his early career troubles, and that he is only getting older, I would imagine that most teams would weigh the past year much more heavily than 2016. A lot of JBJ's 2016 value came from his incredible first half(.926 OPS first half, .728 OPS second half). Most teams are going to see he has been a .730-.750 OPS hitter the last year and a half and value him at that. The Red Sox may be a little more inclined to look at the "whole picture" but why would other teams?

    But again, who would trade for him? The Giants are terrible and wouldnt be trading lottery tickets for a few years of JBJ. There are very few contenders that "need" JBJ and would be actively trying to trade for him. A team looking for a CF upgrade could always sign Lorenzo Cain and keep all their prospects. I dont imagine Cain gets a huge deal?

    I really dont see JBJ getting us much in return and dont think a Martinez-Benintendi-Betts OF is significantly better than a Benintendi-JBJ-Betts OF. I would rather they roll the dice on a short term deal with a 1B and not get into the Martinez bidding to put him in LF. How hard will it be to sign Logan Morrison?

    edit: If they are married to signing JD, it would make more sense to just keep JBJ as the 4th OF. That would be more valuable than anything we would ever get from him on the trade market. Drop Holt/Young, keep JBJ/Nunez
     
    #58 sean1562, Oct 11, 2017
    Last edited: Oct 11, 2017
  9. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

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    He really hasn't been great since roughly July 2016 which is why I am weighing this season more towards his true talent. Over his last 850+ plate appearances he has around a wRC+ of 90 with no major injuries to speak of - just the one DL stint IIRC.

    And his defensive value will never get higher given that CF defense doesn't age very well - especially since his speed is only average now.

    I don't think it's out of the question he can be a 4 WAR player for a few seasons, but on this team with its hitting issues, I'd rather move Beni to CF and fill left field with a bat. I don't think it's a tremendous drop off.

    I am only advocating trading him, because it is an area where they can improve. Even if they don't get a ton, their hands are tied elsewhere. Unless JD Martinez is actually willing to move to 1b or DH, which I kind of doubt.
     
    #59 grimshaw, Oct 11, 2017
    Last edited: Oct 11, 2017
  10. charlieoscar

    charlieoscar lurker

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    As I have pointed out, his seasons run cold/hot/cold and the heat ain't as hot as it was in earlier years but in 2015 and 2017 the lows were quite low. I think CF is a better fit for Benintendi, so if they can get something for JBJ, they might be able to save themselves some money. That assumes they can find a trade partner...perhaps for a couple of players to build up their farm system. They'll need to find a big bat and the positions most open for that would be LF/1B/3B. While I think Devers will become a very good player I don't think 3B is the spot. They can try him there another year to see if he can turn his fielding around but I suspect that he will end up at 1B or DH.

    Second base is a question, especially if Pedroia has surgery. Can they sign Nunez? Would he be willing to switch from full-time to utility when Pedroia comes back? if so, then then they have Marrero/Lin as a potential low-cost utility player. Should be a fun winter.
     
  11. Kielty's Last Pitch

    Kielty's Last Pitch lurker

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    I always like to look back at preseason projections by Baseball Prospectus & Fangraphs, to see how they did.

    They predicted only Hanley & Mookie would hit at least 20 homers. While those two did lead the team in homeruns, Benny & Moreland also hit at least 20.

    Here's their one prediction that really sticks out: They projected the Sox to lead MLB in scoring.

    The Sox came in 10th in scoring, 111 runs fewer than Houston.
     
  12. PapaSox

    PapaSox lurker

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    Yep! I think you said it just about perfect.

    In response to Snodgrass' Muff's opening thread statements
     
  13. Yo La Tengo

    Yo La Tengo Member SoSH Member

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    Shohei Otani... any idea if the Sox can still make trades in order to bolster their international signing budget?

    I did find this info online, which does not bode well for Boston's chances to sign Otani:

    9/13: "Only eight clubs as of now have the ability to give a signing bonus of more than $1 million through next June: Texas ($3,535,000), the New York Yankees ($3.25 million), Pittsburgh ($2,266,750), Minnesota ($1,895,000), Arizona ($1,867,500), Miami ($1.74 million), Detroit ($1,072,000) and Seattle ($1,057,500)."
     
  14. Kielty's Last Pitch

    Kielty's Last Pitch lurker

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    Something is amiss with those numbers, because three months ago the Reds sent $2.75M in International Bonus Money to the Sox for Nick Longhi.

    And the Sox also acquired IBM from the Cardinals for Imeldo Diaz and Stanley Espinal.
     
  15. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    That depends on where you see us coming in on the big bat search.

    If DD decides to go in early with guns blazing on JD Martinez, which is probably a better overall probability bet imo, then I'd say the answer to that is a firm no. Unless somebody can sell me on the reality math involved that doesn't lead to us eating a second tier LT threshold hit.

    Even then though I'm just not seeing it. I mean I get why people keep bringing Nunez's name up in the hypothetical, but the winning bid logistics match up simply isn't there. His career year bat isn't enough to be this winter's "answer" and Pedroia's team leading OBP last year isn't going out to pasture. For better or for worse Brock Holt probably ends up taking that roster spot.
     
  16. Cuzittt

    Cuzittt Bouncing with Anger Dope

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    Nothing is amiss with the numbers. The Red Sox used the money on other signings.
     
  17. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Though, unless there was a significant signing I missed, they should still have just shy of $1M left. They're not gonna be the favorites for Otani, but they're not completely out of the running.
     
  18. soxeast

    soxeast lurker

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    I dont agree in equating 74 games in 2015 vs 158 games. And imo I don't think 2013 and 2014 is relevant for either player. And where did you hear JD Martinez will not be a DH? I'd like to try to sign JD and keep JBJ. Are the sox planning on going above the high threshold?

    The big problem for the entire team - the entire Red Sox team is that their overall WRC+ numbers are poor. I'm sure if you compare them vs the elite teams there is a big difference. For the team to have balance, they could probably use a big right-handed bat. JD Martinez WRC+ of 166 would be 3rd I think in all of baseball. Now if he were to play for the Red Sox, he'd play in left field. Not in the spacious Detroit RF. SO his defense may not be as bad. Thus I'm not sure the real difference isn't very big.

    Of the 6 teams this year with a wRC+ of 102 or above, 4 of them are in the final four playing for the right to go to the World Series. When the Red sox won in 2013 they were tied for the highest WRC+ with Detroit. The toughest team they played. In 2007 they had the 2nd highest. In 2004 they had the highest. This year they were 22nd. Though last year they were 1st and got swept.

    IMO JD gives them more balance. Being 22nd stinks.
     
  19. soxeast

    soxeast lurker

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    Milwaukee Brewers. Brewers defense among the worst in all of baseball. Approx 24th.

    Colorado Rockies. Carlos Gonzalez is the rf. His defense is getting worse as he ages. He's a free agent. You think they are going to want to pay him near $20m? A possibility for them is to move Blackmon to rf and now they get JBJ- you've just given them $14m to upgrade their team while they get a subpar right fielder in Gonzalez out of the lineup and they move a subpar defensive cf in Blackmon to rf.

    Seattle Mariners. They lose to FA the 33 yo Dyson who will be 34 next August. JBJ hits better than him.

    How about the Cleveland Indians? Do you realize his WAA is better than any of the Cleveland outfielders? Yet he makes less than Brantley and Bruce?

    IMO you are selling short what JBJ did in 2015 and 2016. I am concerned like you that 2017 is possibly what he is in terms of a bat. But I think many teams use two cf's or multiple outfielders. Plus you can't just look at cf vs cf. The example I gave you for Colorado also applies. You can move some players from Center field so instead JBJ takes over for a lesser left fielder or rightfielder. While you may not concern yourself with WAA possibly other teams do. Secondly, while you may dismiss for example "Milwaukee" do you think they are giving up and believe they have no shot to make the playoffs?
     
  20. sean1562

    sean1562 lurker

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    Lewis brinson, the brewers top prospect, is a CF. The Indians are gonna trade for him when they can throw kipnis or zimmer out there?

    So maybe the Rockies and maybe the mariners. I still don’t think we would get much of a prospect package from either of those teams for him. Signing JD makes this team better if he is the DH or learns 1b.
     
  21. soxeast

    soxeast lurker

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    Maybe Milwaukee decided to just stand pat. But they were on the cusp of the playoffs. Brinson did hit just .106. Though it was just with 47 ab. And Braun is going to be 34 this November. But I understand. They are Milwaukee. But if the kid doesn't hit - they are basically "done," right? Because I doubt they are getting that year from both Shaw and Thames again. Their OPS both dropped about 150 OPS in the 2nd half. Maybe 1 guy but doubtful for 2. With Braun he probably is declining but maybe he can keep similar OPS he had in 2017.

    And you're right about Cleveland. But Kipnis at cf over JBJ? No way. The last 3 years JBJ has had a better OPS than Kipnis. And there is no way they are comparable as outfielders.

    I probably can find others. For the hell of it I will. But you are right about those two. I just don't know what you mean by "much." And a team like the Brewers weren't expected preseason to eb a playoff team. And there are a lot of young guys that are top tier protects that will take a few years to find their groove. While some older players their defense is going to be bad and get worse.

    As for JD. You don't think he can play left field for the Red Sox?
     
  22. Trotsky

    Trotsky Member SoSH Member

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    I've been thinking about a package of JBJ and Kimbrell. Or just in seperate deals... I imagine Kimbrell would bring back some signficant prospects but for a team hoping to get to a WS... would trusting in Smith, Thornburg, Joe Kelly, etc... be enough? I still find the difference between a great closer and a very good closer to be of minimal importance until the big games (but that difference this post-season meant nothing....). Curious what smarter peoples take on this would be.....
     
  23. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    I don't know. Going back through the last 10 WS winners, more teams had great closers than not.

    2016: Cubs - Chapman
    2015: Royals - Started with Wade Davis, finished with a healthy Greg Holland
    2014: Giants - Romo (not great)
    2013: Sox - Koji
    2012: Giants - Casilla (not great)
    2011: Cardinals - Fernando Salas (flash in the pan but great year)
    2010: Giants - Brian Wilson
    2009: Yankees - Mo
    2008: Phillies - Lidge (great year)
    2007: Red Sox - Papelbon

    So that's 8 of the last 10 that had closers having great years, at least. I think having a big name is almost certainly not important, but getting great production is probably necessary to compete in the post season. If they think they can stick a replacement in there that is likely to have a great year, and there's a good deal out there for Kimbrel, then yeah, sure. Make the move. Otherwise, I think it's a bad idea in the middle of a contention window.

    And they definitely shouldn't be looking to restock the farm with such a move. They are all in at this point. Easing up and playing it safe is just going to make winning a title in the next two years even less likely than it already is, and they're still going to have a massive rebuild ahead of them after that window starts closing.
     
  24. sean1562

    sean1562 lurker

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    i would really hate to trade kimbrel to a team contending, and then have him shut us down in the playoffs
     
  25. tonyarmasjr

    tonyarmasjr Member SoSH Member

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    I don't see where I equated 74 G with 158 G. Those are the games they played, so that's what I used. I didn't say they were same-same in any way. I used a WAR/150 to try to show what a full, healthy season could look like. I think that's relevant, since those games played numbers vary for both of them. There's definitely a smaller sample in Bradley's case, since he's younger/fewer seasons played.

    I don't think 2013/2014 are relevant, either, for trying to guess at recent/future value. That's why I stated that. My point in including them is that Bradley's career stats are weighed down heavily by his initial struggles, and it colors a lot of our conception of his value as a hitter. I don't think Bradley is any closer to his 2014 self than Martinez is to his 2013 self. Those numbers aren't included in that final/average line (hence "If we throw that out and look at the averages since they blossomed:").

    I have not heard that Martinez will not be a DH, but common sense dictates that. 1) Nearly all baseball players at all levels would prefer to play the field. And the majority of those who wouldn't are limited by physical ailments. I am assuming Martinez fits in with the 99%+ this applies to. 2) Martinez is set to make a whole lot of money as the best bat in this FA class. He is worth more to any team as a full-time (or even part-time) OF than a DH. Why would he be interested in taking less money to be a DH? 3) If the Red Sox are willing to pay him the same amount of money to be a DH as another team is to be an OF, we have a problem with how we're spending money. This part of the argument is not so much that he won't be a DH, but that he shouldn't. I hope they go hand in hand.

    Last year, the Red Sox had a collective 114 wRC+; this year it was 92. The major differences in personnel were losing Ortiz (164 wRC+ in 646 PA) and Shaw (89 in 530), while adding Moreland (98 in 576) and a full season of Benintendi (103 in 658). One would not expect such a large drop in the team's overall performance based on those changes. I don't know how to filter those players out on fangraphs to see the change to the collective wRC+ of those on the team last year to this year, but my guestimation is we should have expected somewhere around that 102 you're using - even with the loss of Ortiz. That wasn't the case, obviously. The question is: does J.D. Martinez get the offense back to that level? My belief is that they'll get there without him. I'd prefer not to move JBJ for pennies on the dollar, not to move Hanley and eat his salary while he has an average (or better) season at the plate for someone else, and not to spend $100M+ on Martinez. His bat would definitely be a nice addition, but not at what it would cost in the face of our current roster construction. I'd rather bank on the majority of the guys we have approximating their 2016 seasons, tinkering around the edges, and saving the money from Martinez for when we have to make decisions on our currently cost-controlled players or starting pitching.
     
  26. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    This, and even then you can't just simplify down the potential scenario to suggesting that only contenders make trades and/or try to make their on-field product better. Or that our off-season plan would solely consist of signing JD Martinez, trading Bradley off, and calling it a winter.

    Baseball off-seasons can have a lot of moving parts to them. Not just for us, but for any team that might decide to make a trade for Bradley. A trade here wouldn't necessarily have to fit a "for a top prospect" mold or be some epic and in the moment isolated win to end up making sense when the grander scheme of things dust settles.
     
  27. Todd Benzinger

    Todd Benzinger Member SoSH Member

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    The trade JBJ concept seems misguided. It seems to me based on undervaluing outfield defense and overvaluing power hitting, because power hitting is more easy to perceive or more obvious when it is missing. The Sox won the AL East on the basis of pitching, but the pitching may not be quite the same if the team subtracts one of its three world-class OF defenders. Also, the team is actually very well positioned in having a youngish defense and pitching team that was good enough to win the AL East in 2017, because many of the hitters underperformed expectations in 2017, and therefore have a decent chance of hitting better next season, without the defensive fall-off that would come with literally trading a top defender for a defensively weaker power bat. (By the way, Dave Cameron scorned the idea that the Sox "need a power bat" in that same chat being discussed above FWIW).

    I'd love to see the Sox add better power bats for 1B and DH, but they don't need to sacrifice JBJ's talent in CF to do that.
     
  28. Kielty's Last Pitch

    Kielty's Last Pitch lurker

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    I quoted a list that indicated Red Sox IBM stood at less than $1.0575M as of 09/13/17.

    According to Jon Heyman, the Sox had $8M to spend as of 08/24/17.

    https://www.fanragsports.com/heyman-yankees-red-sox-positioned-battle-otani/

    Every report I've read indicated the Sox were building up their IBM to make a run at Otani.

    So obviously I'm confused as to how and why they'd spend at least $7M in IBM during the 20 days after Heyman's column, knowing how much they covet Otani.

    Do you have a source that shows how that $7M was spent?

    Interesting ... http://www.soxprospects.com/international.htm

    Ahh, nevermind ... looks like Heyman forgot to take into account the July 2nd signings.
     
    #78 Kielty's Last Pitch, Oct 16, 2017
    Last edited: Oct 16, 2017

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