The Game Ball Thread: Week 7 vs Falcons

reggiecleveland

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Another point I made in the gamethread was that I was somewhat stunned that Jones spent as much time during a pregame interview he did with Tirico(?) about his Super Bowl catch. The *only* acceptable answers to that question is "It doesn't matter, we lost," "This is a different season" or possibly "That wasn't even the best catch in the game." Instead he went on about it for, like, two minutes including a ridiculous humblebrag that it wasn't a big deal because he's so used to making catches like that. It was just ... wow.
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You are stretching. I also thought he was talking to Dungy. That looked like an extended interview where he was asked multiple questions about the catch. Dungy seemed to drag it out of him. They were trying to hype a Sunday night game, and edited the interviews for the standard "Both teams are awesome do not change the channel!!!!" pregame show. Who knows how many times he said he lost the game, it didn't matter. I thought his "no big deal " comment was alluding to the fact it was nothing to celebrate, and the fact he expects himself to come up with the ball.

So Benitendi gets asked about his homer off Verlander and he says he was happy he got inside the ball and kept it fair he is jerk because the Astros came back?
 

tims4wins

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I just mentioned this in the game thread, and this may be a bit hot-takey, but it seems like 2016 was simply a career year for Matt Ryan. While he is a good QB, maybe a very good QB, he is not one of the top 3 guys in the league / perennial MVP candidate / future HoF'er like Brady / Brees / Rodgers. He has a fairly long track record now in the NFL of being good / very good but not great. So while I think you can blame Sarkisian some for the backslide on offense, part of it may be that Ryan just isn't that great.

Also, it really appears as if the Falcons thought they could basically just keep doing in 2017 what they did in 2016 and it would be successful. To sustain success in the NFL you need to constantly adapt. While they claim to have embraced the suck, I am not sure they have embraced the process, and for that reason they seem doomed to fail this year. I do 100% expect to see a new OC next year.

To reprise a familiar phrase, the NFC is wiiiiiide open.
 

Tony C

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I think that's right. Owning Ryan in fantasy I've watched a fair number of his games. While Sark is no Shanahan, Ryan plain and simple misses open receivers too often...including last night vs the Pats. A lot of the regression has to be on his performance.
 

Rough Carrigan

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I’ll never understand why Julio Jones isn’t a TD monster. We’re into Week 8 now and he has 1 TD, which came in garbage time last night. He’s only had double digits once with 10 in 2012 and he’s played his entire career with a good to very good QB in Ryan. His career is looking more like Andre Johnson and less like the Moss/Calvin Johnson that his talent/physique suggests.
Does he really get separation? He's a big guy and all and will catch a lot of jump balls but in the Uber Bowl he caught 4 balls where he was never really open on at least 3 of them. Big is great. Big and elusive is even better.
 

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I just mentioned this in the game thread, and this may be a bit hot-takey, but it seems like 2016 was simply a career year for Matt Ryan. While he is a good QB, maybe a very good QB, he is not one of the top 3 guys in the league / perennial MVP candidate / future HoF'er like Brady / Brees / Rodgers. He has a fairly long track record now in the NFL of being good / very good but not great. So while I think you can blame Sarkisian some for the backslide on offense, part of it may be that Ryan just isn't that great.

Also, it really appears as if the Falcons thought they could basically just keep doing in 2017 what they did in 2016 and it would be successful. To sustain success in the NFL you need to constantly adapt. While they claim to have embraced the suck, I am not sure they have embraced the process, and for that reason they seem doomed to fail this year. I do 100% expect to see a new OC next year.

To reprise a familiar phrase, the NFC is wiiiiiide open.
There is a long ands tried line of Super Bowl losing teams regressing significantly in the next year. Sometimes it is because they were just lucky to get there, but often it is some combo of losing personnel (both on and off field) to greener pa$ture$ and the various reasons you note above.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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Nice stat tidbit from ESPN:

@NFLMatchup
These teams run the ball most efficiently out of 11 - the most used personnel group in the NFL.



Back to Game Balls...

I've been waiting for Burkhead to come back and make a contribution. He gets a GB from me.

Lewis and MG have their own strengths but I really, really like the way Burkhead bursts into a hole (very similar to what he was doing with the Bengals.) And he may be the best pass-catching back out of the bunch.

I also have to give credit to everyone's favorite FB, Devlin. He has been particularly nasty run-blocking last couple of games. Another GB!

P.S. Honorable mention to Al Michaels for shitting all over Big Ben for always being a drama queen, during the post-game show.
 
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SeoulSoxFan

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Interesting tidbit part 2:

Lombardi mentioned on his excellent GM Street podcast that when he was back with NE, they tried to trade for Bademosi from the Browns. He thought the corner would be a very good ST player but a better CB than people thought.

Bademosi then signed a better deal (implying NE offered him a contract) when he became an F.A. This year, NE finally got their guy from the Lions for a 6th rounder. Detroit, of course, is currently run by GM Bob Quinn, former NE Director of Pro Scouting, Bob Quinn.
 

tims4wins

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Interesting tidbit part 2:

Lombardi mentioned on his excellent GM Street podcast that when he was back with NE, they tried to trade for Bademosi from the Browns. He thought the corner would be a very good ST player but a better CB than people thought.

Bademosi then signed a better deal (implying NE offered him a contract) when he became an F.A. This year, NE finally got their guy from the Lions and their current GM & former NE Director of Pro Scouting, Bob Quinn.
BB was asked about Bademosi today and had a similar answer.

Q: You brought in Johnson and Marsh right before the season started. How did you get each guy and why did you bring them here? Specifically, what did each of them offer that interested in you?

BB: Well, both of those players we had an interest in and had interaction with. Cassius, when he came out in the draft three years ago, it was a guy we spent quite a bit of time with, and we just weren't able to get him quick enough. Seattle had quite a bit of depth at that defensive end position in the last couple years, and so we've kind of kept an eye on that and talked to them. So, this time it was able to work out. We had some, with Rob Ninkovich retiring, Derek [Rivers] getting injured in Houston -- you know, we lost a little bit of depth at that position. Hightower, at that point, wasn't practicing, not that he's a full-time end, but he was part of the equation, too. I mean, you know, I'd just say it kind of worked out for us. Same thing with Bademosi. We had looked at him in free agency two years ago, and he signed with Detroit. Bob [Quinn] signed him. Bob liked him here. We went through the whole free agency process there in the season, and Bademosi was probably one of our top-ranked guys for the roles that we projected him in. Then Bob went to Detroit and he ended up signing him there. I'd say that wasn't really a surprise to us because we knew that he liked the player. I mean, we all liked him. That's the way things worked out. After we went up to Detroit and talked to Bob, they had some young players, had quite a bit of depth at that position, so we were able to work things out there. So, basically that's it.
 

BobGenghisKhan

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From football outsiders. That is some serious Wtf material.
This reads to me like he's in over his head and just trying to fake his way through things. You have to wonder if Sarkisian is actually qualified to be a top-level coach or assistant.
 

tims4wins

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Stitch01

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Nitpick part 1:

Brady played another terrific game but he could have had a big TD if this throw was more on target and hit Cooks in his stride:

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2017102212/2017/REG7/Falcons@Patriots?icampaign=scoreStrip-globalNav-2017102212#menu=gameinfo|contentId:0ap3000000865824&tab=videos
I made that comment in the game thread. Collinsworth thought Brady kept the ball low deliberately to make sure the safety couldnt get a good shot in on Cooks.

This reads to me like he's in over his head and just trying to fake his way through things. You have to wonder if Sarkisian is actually qualified to be a top-level coach or assistant.
Well there's some history there with Ryan. He was relatively ineffective in his first year under Shanahan and the talk and interviews in media after the season suggested it was because Ryan wasnt comfortable with some of the changes Shanahan had made in the playbook and with some of the plays he hadnt seen before. (I vaguely remember something about the play action game being a problem). So Shanahan changed up the scheme and playbook some for the 2016 season and incorporated more of the plays that Ryan was comfortable with. The Falcons offense seems out of sorts, something doesnt seem to be clicking there and I dont think they are using their best players enough, but Im not surprised they gave Ryan a big role in divising the scheme.
 

dbn

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What's all this talk about ATL's offensive struggles? They were handed by NE pretty well yesterday, but coming into this week they were 3rd in the NFL in points per drive, and first in both yards per drive and drive success rate. Sure, they aren't seeing the success they did last year when they scored 15% more points per drive (3.06) than the second best offense (NO at 2.65), but that was nuts - and the highest over the course of an NFL season since the 2007 NEP.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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I would argue that if Brady threw it higher, Cooks might have gotten nailed
I made that comment in the game thread. Collinsworth thought Brady kept the ball low deliberately to make sure the safety couldnt get a good shot in on Cooks.
Yeah, I thought Brady put it low on purpose when watching it live.
But after rewatching it a couple of times, I don't think the safety could have laid a finger on him. If the ball gets there in stride, Cooks would have been well beyond the defender's reach easily stroll into the endzone.
 

tims4wins

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What's all this talk about ATL's offensive struggles? They were handed by NE pretty well yesterday, but coming into this week they were 3rd in the NFL in points per drive, and first in both yards per drive and drive success rate. Sure, they aren't seeing the success they did last year when they scored 15% more points per drive (3.06) than the second best offense (NO at 2.65), but that was nuts - and the highest over the course of an NFL season since the 2007 NEP.
They only scored 17 against Miami and 17 against Buffalo
 

dbn

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Okay, so we all agree: their offensive production has declined compared their best-in-the-NFL-in-nearly-a-decade from last year, but when you look more closely than the per-game totals you see that they were still one of the best in 2017 through their first 5 games. When their numbers from the NE game get included they will likely look worse.
 

tims4wins

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Well it was more that they were still great through their first 3 games, and their last 3 games have been markedly worse. We’re not talking about one game skewing the numbers. It is a 3 game trend.
 

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Vegas oughta set the default HFA for the Pats at -5 rather than the usual -3 since they manage to get so far into everyone's heads when they come to Gillette.
Seriously. After that goal-line stand with the layout D by Butler and the contain/tackle by Van Noy, I felt like if we were any further into the Falcons' heads, they'd have to start charging us rent.

It'd be easy to give game balls to Butler, Bademosi and anyone not named Nate Solder, but for once let's offer one up for the coaches, who put on a fucking masterclass last night in all 3 phases.
 

dbn

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Two of the reasons for the large discrepancy between the Falcons offense's total and per-drive numbers are that, coming into the week, ATL was 1st in the NFL in TOP/drive on offense and 31st in TOP/drive on defense (in the sense that both numbers are large).

edit: apologies for staying off-topic for so long. I'll stop now!

I lied. edit2: Coming in to the week ATL was on a 16-game pace to total 150.4 offensive drives. Last year the average was 177 and Detroit had the fewest at 152.
 
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djbayko

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I'm not a religious person, but the absolute blind faith that I have in BB / TB to get the job done must be the closest thing there is to believing in some sort of god. Is this how religious people feel about whatever god they worship?
God's record is far worse.
 

InstaFace

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yeah, God is the Rex Ryan of the metaphysical - all bluster and tough talk, especially back in the day, but when the chips are down, he turns the other cheek.
 

Super Nomario

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What's all this talk about ATL's offensive struggles? They were handed by NE pretty well yesterday, but coming into this week they were 3rd in the NFL in points per drive, and first in both yards per drive and drive success rate. Sure, they aren't seeing the success they did last year when they scored 15% more points per drive (3.06) than the second best offense (NO at 2.65), but that was nuts - and the highest over the course of an NFL season since the 2007 NEP.
Currently now at 9th in points per drive and still first in yards per drive. Part of the issue is their starting field position for the O is the worst in the NFL, and that's partly because the D is dead last in generating turnovers.

It should be noted that as underrated as the per-game (vs per-drive) stats make the O look, the D is experiencing the exact opposite illusion. They are 15th in points per game and 14th in yards per game, but 25th and 27th on a per-drive basis. Basically, the D is awful and it's making the O look worse.
 

snowmanny

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Not that it mattered, but not getting a play off at the end of the third quarter - when the Falcons had about 30 seconds and were down 20-0 - was just one of the available examples of pathetic clock management that makes one wonder if this is really the World's Most Aggressive Football Offense or just one of the stupidest.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Not that it mattered, but not getting a play off at the end of the third quarter - when the Falcons had about 30 seconds and were down 20-0 - was just one of the available examples of pathetic clock management that makes one wonder if this is really the World's Most Aggressive Football Offense or just one of the stupidest.
You see this league wide, though, right? We're just spoiled because it is relatively unusual when the Patriots do stuff like this. The closest the Patriots seem to come is at the end of the first half where sometimes it feels like they are so concerned with using up the whole clock that they overly rush the offense. But even then, it's a choice, even if one thinks the strategy may be questionable.

The other interesting choice Belichick seems to have made is that he seems like he will never challenge unless he gets word that it's clearly wrong, or unless it's a game dispositive call. Again, one can question the strategy but you know it's a choice.

Watching the NFL, week in and out, it's really surprising how some of this stuff never even seems to be contemplated. I feel like bad decisions are just constantly being made not because the coach has made a debatable choice but because of lack of understanding of what is even happening.

Edit: Though the one I really never understand is why the Patriots seem not to care about snapping with lots of time on the play clock with a good fourth quarter lead. But even this, I assume has been considered -- I just can't really understand what the thinking is.
 

InstaFace

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Edit: Though the one I really never understand is why the Patriots seem not to care about snapping with lots of time on the play clock with a good fourth quarter lead. But even this, I assume has been considered -- I just can't really understand what the thinking is.
My two cents: The right time to snap the ball is at the moment of the maximum differential between how prepared your offense is to execute your play and how prepared the defense is to stop that play.

If there are 12 men on the field for the defense, that right moment is RIGHT FUCKING NOW. If both teams are focused, that moment is pretty close to the end of the clock, when you've made all your pre-snap adjustments and read what you could about the defense, communicated your response to your teammates, read the D's counter-measures, adjusted to those, etc etc. If the D is gassed because it's the 4th quarter, and you feel good about your play call, run it when you're ready - particularly if they're not.
 

Al Zarilla

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Not that it mattered, but not getting a play off at the end of the third quarter - when the Falcons had about 30 seconds and were down 20-0 - was just one of the available examples of pathetic clock management that makes one wonder if this is really the World's Most Aggressive Football Offense or just one of the stupidest.
There was another play, maybe two, when Atlanta decided they were going to a hurry up offense. Play ended, Ryan ran to the spot where he’d get the snap and a few other Falcons ran to their positions too. But, some other guys didn’t know where to go, Ryan is shouting at them, and maybe the play call was uncertain too. The ball ended up being snapped with about 6 seconds left on the play clock. Nice hurry up. Pats, OTOH, always seem to go into the hurry up perfectly.
 

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There was another play, maybe two, when Atlanta decided they were going to a hurry up offense. Play ended, Ryan ran to the spot where he’d get the snap and a few other Falcons ran to their positions too. But, some other guys didn’t know where to go, Ryan is shouting at them, and maybe the play call was uncertain too. The ball ended up being snapped with about 6 seconds left on the play clock. Nice hurry up. Pats, OTOH, always seem to go into the hurry up perfectly.
And the flip side, the Falcons defense seemed in no way ready for the Pats to go hurry-up. Both things smack of poor coaching.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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My two cents: The right time to snap the ball is at the moment of the maximum differential between how prepared your offense is to execute your play and how prepared the defense is to stop that play.

If there are 12 men on the field for the defense, that right moment is RIGHT FUCKING NOW. If both teams are focused, that moment is pretty close to the end of the clock, when you've made all your pre-snap adjustments and read what you could about the defense, communicated your response to your teammates, read the D's counter-measures, adjusted to those, etc etc. If the D is gassed because it's the 4th quarter, and you feel good about your play call, run it when you're ready - particularly if they're not.
Yeah, I think when you're trying to use clock the most important thing is getting the first down because the more of those you have the more clock you can burn. So, if snapping early gives you a benefit worth passing on the opportunity to take 15 seconds off the play clock, then I understand. My unreliable memory seems to be telling me there were a few times that it wasn't really that situation where it was driving us all crazy they wouldn't use clock, but I actually don't have a specific instance in mind.
 

nothumb

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Yeah, I think when you're trying to use clock the most important thing is getting the first down because the more of those you have the more clock you can burn. So, if snapping early gives you a benefit worth passing on the opportunity to take 15 seconds off the play clock, then I understand. My unreliable memory seems to be telling me there were a few times that it wasn't really that situation where it was driving us all crazy they wouldn't use clock, but I actually don't have a specific instance in mind.
I remember BB saying something a while back to the effect of keeping the offense in rhythm and executing being more important to them than milking every second off. I appreciate the observation about maximizing the preparedness gap, and maybe that's baked into the "rhythm" concept in some way... I think this is probably a bit like bunting, where a strategy might increase the likelihood of getting a certain minimal outcome (scratching across one run; killing 2 minutes in one set of downs) while also reducing the likelihood of a more high-reward outcome (big inning, long scoring drive). So you would only use that one-dimensional strategy when that single near term outcome is most important (e.g. up 10 with 3 mins left against a good D deep in your own end).
 

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This looks like every movie where the serial killer is shown early in the crowd. They turn to the camera, and you can see they are up to something by the look in their eyes.

About 56 seconds into the clip.

 

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Love how they showed the 2016 Marsh block. That is like a BB breakdown. Also love how they showed how the gap appeared on film before. Really good stuff there.