The evolution and evaluation of Jamie Collins

[RedOctober3829]

Ian O'Connor ‏@Ian_OConnor 14m14 minutes ago
Prominent personnel guy on Jamie Collins: "Been on the block for few weeks. On film, a shadow of the player he was last year."

Ian O'Connor ‏@Ian_OConnor 2m2 minutes ago
Personnel guy on Jamie Collins 2-"Whether he was hurt or saving self for next deal, he wasnt same guy & it was very noticeable"

 

[tims4wins]

Question for the group: do you think the Pats would have kept Jones if they foresaw a Collins decline coming, or do you think their evaluation of Jones was completely independent? (e.g., didn't always show up, inconsistent, didn't set edge awesome, the weird synthetic mary jane incident...)

 

[Rick Burlesons Yam Bag]

Ian O'Connor ‏@Ian_OConnor 14m14 minutes ago
Prominent personnel guy on Jamie Collins: "Been on the block for few weeks. On film, a shadow of the player he was last year."

Ian O'Connor ‏@Ian_OConnor 2m2 minutes ago
Personnel guy on Jamie Collins 2-"Whether he was hurt or saving self for next deal, he wasnt same guy & it was very noticeable"

This is silly.For goodness sake, he has played in about 60% as many games as he did last season and has 60% as many solo tackles as he did last season. He has had 2 INTs on the season, and while his assists and sacks are off a bit......there isn't anything to substantiate "he was a shadow of the player he was last year."

 

[tims4wins]

This is silly.For goodness sake, he has played in about 60% as many games as he did last season and has 60% as many solo tackles as he did last season. He has had 2 INTs on the season, and while his assists and sacks are off a bit......there isn't anything to substantiate "he was a shadow of the player he was last year."

C'mon Yammer you are better than this. Tackles are hardly a be-all, end-all. Now if you want to watch some all-22 and tell me he is playing at the same level, I am all ears. I'd love to see this from our ITP guys. I mean I saw Lombardi's tweets but that is like 2 plays, you can find those plays of everyone.

 

[rodderick]

This is silly.For goodness sake, he has played in about 60% as many games as he did last season and has 60% as many solo tackles as he did last season. He has had 2 INTs on the season, and while his assists and sacks are off a bit......there isn't anything to substantiate "he was a shadow of the player he was last year."

Maybe there is if you watch film. I don't think box score scouting can be used to make that definitive a statement.

 

[Rick Burlesons Yam Bag]

C'mon Yammer you are better than this. Tackles are hardly a be-all, end-all. Now if you want to watch some all-22 and tell me he is playing at the same level, I am all ears. I'd love to see this from our ITP guys. I mean I saw Lombardi's tweets but that is like 2 plays, you can find those plays of everyone.

Baloney.

The statement "a shadow of a player" implies a huge drop off, which you would see in box score numbers and even play counts. He had reduced time in one game basically. As I am sure you know, even watching all-22 you can never be sure if a guy is in the right spot or not. Lombardi and O'Connor are crapping all over a very good football player who was a great Patriot. It is, by far, one of my pet peeves with journalists who want to get eyeballs by telling the fans things they want to hear.

 

[tims4wins]

Right, I mean I don't buy all of Lombardi's tweets, but there is likely some kind of middle ground here.

I'd actually me more curious to know what his play was like last year after he came back from injury - this may be more than just a half year sample.

 

[Stitch01]

Baloney.

The statement "a shadow of a player" implies a huge drop off, which you would see in box score numbers and even play counts. He had reduced time in one game basically. As I am sure you know, even watching all-22 you can never be sure if a guy is in the right spot or not. Lombardi and O'Connor are crapping all over a very good football player who was a great Patriot. It is, by far, one of my pet peeves with journalists who want to get eyeballs by telling the fans things they want to hear.

Ian O'Connor is an ESPN writer. Patriots fans are a very small portion of his audience. I dont quite get how he is telling fans what they want to hear. Lombardi is a quasi-Pats homer, but he's more pumping his brand than anything as he had been down on Collins earlier this year.

One personnel guy's take isnt gospel or anything for sure, but saying "hey he's a good player still because he has the same amount of solo tackles" doesnt tell us anything either.

 

[Rick Burlesons Yam Bag]

Right, I mean I don't buy all of Lombardi's tweets, but there is likely some kind of middle ground here.

I'd actually me more curious to know what his play was like last year after he came back from injury - this may be more than just a half year sample.

See, I don't disagree with that position. But let's be honest from watching games and stats, and generally watching the patriot defense....at worst he has been 80% of Jamie Collins since the injury with a shot at being 100% because he is a talented guy who, according to reports, works like a dog and is a freak athlete. If you want to say that he isn't in the Patriots long term plans because of the way the economics for everyone is, that is cool. But saying crap like "he is a shadow of his former self" and attributing it to some "well regarded personnel evaluator" or whatever.......it's chicken shit journalism IMO and O'Connor should be called out for it. Is it as bad as Howard Eskin in Philadelphia claiming to have friends on the police force who told him stuff about DeSean Jackson that would blow people's minds? No. But it is still shitty. Guy is gone. He was a great player. The team will be a little worse for a few weeks but hopefully in the longer term they will be better to much better.

 

[Rick Burlesons Yam Bag]

Ian O'Connor is an ESPN writer. Patriots fans are a very small portion of his audience. I dont quite get how he is telling fans what they want to hear. Lombardi is a quasi-Pats homer, but he's more pumping his brand than anything as he had been down on Collins earlier this year.

One personnel guy's take isnt gospel or anything for sure, but saying "hey he's a good player still because he has the same amount of solo tackles" doesnt tell us anything either.

Patriots fans and Browns fans are the only folks who will click and share info on Jamie Collins. Browns fans are checked out. He tweeted it, that is what social media is. He is telling folks what they want to hear.

The same amount of solo tackles would pretty much invalidate the "shadow of his former self" statement.

 

[tims4wins]

Again I think that "shadow of his former self" is likely BS, but like I said there is probably a middle ground. There may not be a middle ground, maybe he was playing at the exact same level, but in that case I doubt they would have traded him at this point in time if it was just a contract issue. But I could be wrong

 

[Stitch01]

Patriots fans and Browns fans are the only folks who will click and share info on Jamie Collins. Browns fans are checked out. He tweeted it, that is what social media is. He is telling folks what they want to hear.

The same amount of solo tackles would pretty much invalidate the "shadow of his former self" statement.

Disagree on Ian O'Connor. He works for a national outlet and is tweeting it out because its the big trade of the week.

Solo tackles by itself is about as effective of an evaluation stat as RBI.

 

[Stitch01]

Perhaps he was a shadow of his former self in pass coverage, or outside containment, or a variety of other things that wouldn't be reflected in a solo tackle statistic. Maybe one step lost in effort makes Jamie Collins, in particular, way more prone to letting up the dreaded Big Play (c). If a prominent personnel guy with the Pats is saying that, I don't think we should immediately discount it and assume the tweeter is only out to tell folks what they want to hear.

Tweet didnt say it was a prominent personnel guy from the Pats. Could be I guess,but based on Ian O'Connor's past work there's no real reason to think he'd carry water for the Pats like that.

 

[tims4wins]

Tweet didnt say it was a prominent personnel guy from the Pats. Could be I guess,but based on Ian O'Connor's past work there's no real reason to think he'd carry water for the Pats like that.

Exactly.

Or it was Bob Quinn or someone like that.

 

[mauf]

Baloney.

The statement "a shadow of a player" implies a huge drop off, which you would see in box score numbers and even play counts. He had reduced time in one game basically. As I am sure you know, even watching all-22 you can never be sure if a guy is in the right spot or not. Lombardi and O'Connor are crapping all over a very good football player who was a great Patriot. It is, by far, one of my pet peeves with journalists who want to get eyeballs by telling the fans things they want to hear.

I might have bought this before BB tacitly endorsed Lombardi's reporting on this issue.

Perhaps the extent of Collins's decline has been exaggerated (if it were that obvious, it would've been more widely discussed, at least in knowledgeable circles), but it seems fairly clear that BB thought Collins wasn't bringing the same value to the table that he once did.

 

[tims4wins]

Right. If this was purely a contract issue, the Pats likely would have known that in the spring. Something changed between now and then. And it seems to be mostly performance related.

Forget the "shadow of his former self" comment - if it is true that he was on the block for a few weeks, and the return was a 3rd round comp pick, doesn't appear that demand was insanely high. But in fairness it could also be a case of BB not wanting to trade him to a rival / contender

 

[Stitch01]

I might have bought this before BB tacitly endorsed Lombardi's reporting on this issue.

Perhaps the extent of Collins's decline has been exaggerated (if it were that obvious, it would've been more widely discussed, at least in knowledgeable circles), but it seems fairly clear that BB thought Collins wasn't bringing the same value to the table that he once did.

BB can be wrong of course, and I think Collins has a pretty good chance of being good elsewhere at some point (I dont think we'll get a great read based on his performance on a terrible Browns team where he may be banged up), but yeah, the deal was made because BB thought Collins play had slipped.

 

[Rick Burlesons Yam Bag]

Solo tackles by itself is about as effective of an evaluation stat as RBI.

He is an OLB. Solo tackles are a pretty damned big piece of his job.

 

[Rick Burlesons Yam Bag]

Forget the "shadow of his former self" comment - if it is true that he was on the block for a few weeks, and the return was a 3rd round comp pick, doesn't appear that demand was insanely high. But in fairness it could also be a case of BB not wanting to trade him to a rival / contender

Not wanting him to end up at a contender or divisional foe strikes me as a damn good reason to make this move if you thought that you could still win a championship without the guy but you knew you weren't going to be able to pay him market value. Of course, it's not guaranteed that the Browns sign him, but given that they have oodles of cap space for the next few years because they will be so rookie heavy, and given that he can be "the man" in a football-hungry market and sell a ton of jerseys, cars, chocolate bars and overpriced whatevers..........given that he already has a ring, it isn't a bad place to stash the guy.

 

[Stitch01]

He is an OLB. Solo tackles are a pretty damned big piece of his job.

Driving in runs is a pretty big job of middle of the order hitters too, but we still need contextual adjustments (plays run, run vs.pass, Collins assignments, missed tackles, etc) to evaluate how he's doing his job.

I dont't really know what they'd show here. PFF grades Collins pretty highly. Stats grade the Pats defense as pretty underwhelming and Collins was supposed to be one of their best players. Some film guys have said the quality of play is down. BB just shipped the guy out of town and doesnt usually miss on his own players. Collins has been banged up some this year. I dont think he's played as well as last year, but that doesn't mean he hasn't been productive.

I just dont really get a lot out of "yeah he had the same amount of solo tackles"

 

[pokey_reese]

I think that you are highlighting the fact that we (especially on this board) are getting used to being able to get much more nuance and precision in rating and comparing player performance due to the sabermetric advancement in baseball, but that there is still really no equivalent in football. There isn't even some kind of OPS or easy to calculate measure, much less a WAR equivalent or wRC+ or anything like that. I would say that football analytics has the same problems as the defensive components of baseball stats, but with even less of the foundational work done.

Let's put it this way: If some casual or non-baseball fan asked me to give them a minute or two explanation of what stats they should look at instead of RBIs or pitcher wins to evaluate a player, I would have little trouble answering them. When you say that we shouldn't just look at solo tackles to judge a football player, you are completely right, but I don't have the ability to point to any alternative that I'm comfortable with, nor am I familiar with any that seem to be approaching a consensus.

 

[Stitch01]

Yes, there's going to be less perfect information in football, particularly for individual players. RBYB is right, even if you had a film expert robot watching All-22 of every player they'll still have some room for error, BB has made that point as well. But even with those limitations, I dont really think counting solo tackles tells us very much.

The play count discussion was a little misleading too. Per Pro Football Reference he went 100%/100%/100%/100%/82%/89%/61%/traded for game by game snap counts. I dont know if that was situation dependent or what, but he was losing playing time over the last three weeks.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

He is an OLB. Solo tackles are a pretty damned big piece of his job.

What if they're all 10 yards downfield?

I don't know what to think about this trade, but I don't think solo tackles is a really useful stat. Collins himself said he's not playing as well this year as last. O'Connor is an ESPN national football reporter, he's not a local guy, so I'm not sure why he'd be pandering to anyone.

Collins is athletic and fast without being really precise in his assignments. There are tons of guys like that in the league and many of them are really good. There's a risk in trading the uber-athletic guy away in favor of a less athletic guy who will play his lane. There's a risk that Roger or whoever slides into Collins' role can't do enough in that role because of the lesser physical talents. I wish there was a way to have kept him.

I will say that the mysterious infection which shelved him for a bunch of games last year gives me pause. If he really is such a shithead as to get a grill installed in the middle of the season and miss time because of that, I wonder about the guy. When Chandler had his min-break from reality last year for synthetic dope, that gives pause too.

I do think that this does free up money to keep Hightower, which should be the higher priority anyway.

 

[Dogman]

Split from the Collins thread.

 

[Rick Burlesons Yam Bag]

Because the thread title perfectly captures the conversation and isn't asinine.

 

[Rick Burlesons Yam Bag]

And here's the context, which supermod3000 missed.

Rappaport wanted to get eyeballs by saying that Collins was terrible. Quoting some unnamed highly respected personnel evaluator, the quote was "he is a shadow of his former self."

This is asinine and it is the kind of shit that when I joined this site, would drive us crazy when the media would shit all over guys who just left who were great on the Red Sox. This type of reporting is worse now that things go viral et al.

Solo tackles in and of themselves cannot fully evaluate a player. However, can the mod who broke this out explain how an OLB could be "a shadow of his former self" while having the same rate of solo tackles??? Creep to the mic like a vandal Bob!

Jamie Collins was a great Patriot and a great football player. Had Sean Berry come in here three weeks ago and said "you know who sucks? Jamie Collins!!!" This place would have been a shitfest, and rightfully so.

If you want to say his skills have decline some since his injury, if you want to say that the long term economics didn't work, if you want to say that belichick wanted to stash the guy on a team where he wouldn't hurt the Pats for the foreseeable future......all reasonable. But reposting shit like "Collins was a shadow of his former self" is giving credence to nonsense and is disrespecting a guy who was a tremendous contributor.

So rob, how does an OLB keep his solo tackle rate the same and play pretty much full time (he had one game of reduced action) and have that cataclysmic drop described? Floor is yours.

 

[Dogman]

I'm aware of the context, thanks. I've made no statements for or against your argument.

This could be a good discussion and plenty of posters are engaged. Have at it with them.

 

[Rick Burlesons Yam Bag]

I figured.

Rob, what you posted as a headline was not my argument at all.

And fundamentally, it's not really that interesting a debate to be honest, but much like rappaort did, you tried to make it interesting by giving it a ludicrous headline which implied you didn't understand the context at all.

Do you feel that he was significantly worse than in prior seasons? Did anyone? I don't go into the game threads, but was this a topic of debate? Is this forum so poor at analytics that no one noticed the significant decline of a Pro Bowl LB and started a thread to discuss?

I think not, but let's hear your thoughts.

 

[pokey_reese]

And here's the context, which supermod3000 missed.

Rappaport wanted to get eyeballs by saying that Collins was terrible. Quoting some unnamed highly respected personnel evaluator, the quote was "he is a shadow of his former self."

This is asinine and it is the kind of shit that when I joined this site, would drive us crazy when the media would shit all over guys who just left who were great on the Red Sox. This type of reporting is worse now that things go viral et al.

...

So rob, how does an OLB keep his solo tackle rate the same and play pretty much full time (he had one game of reduced action) and have that cataclysmic drop described? Floor is yours.

Well, I think that SJH touched on this when he said "What if they're all 10 yards downfield?" in reference to those tackles. Maybe part of the problem is that not all tackles are remotely the same in terms of evaluating a player. Maybe last year he was making those tackles right around the line of scrimmage, while this year he is chasing a RB upfield because he lost the edge or didn't wrap him up when he hit the hole. Or maybe more of his tackles this year came in pass coverage after a reception by the TE, while last year he didn't have to make those tackles because the TE wasn't open enough to throw to, etc.. What if he gave up a 1st down catch because he tried to jump the route, but then tackles the guy after he gets the yards? It was a bad play, but he records a tackle anyhow.

Tackles are like RBIs, in that you can get the same credit for a double in the gap as you do for grounding out when there happened to be a man on 3rd and fewer than two outs. They are extremely context-dependent, rely on the contributions of other players as well as opportunities outside of the tackler's control, and can come about even if he made a mistake. It's just much to raw a metric to be useful in this case, and the lack of a better alternative ready to hand doesn't change that.

 

[pokey_reese]

At the very least, it seems like we need some kind of adjusted tackle rate that accounts for whether it was a run or a pass play, and where it was relative to the line of scrimmage. Maybe that could then be further adjusted for what the offensive team averages for a gain in those respective situations.

 

[Rick Burlesons Yam Bag]

Well, I think that SJH touched on this when he said "What if they're all 10 yards downfield?" in reference to those tackles. Maybe part of the problem is that not all tackles are remotely the same in terms of evaluating a player. Maybe last year he was making those tackles right around the line of scrimmage, while this year he is chasing a RB upfield because he lost the edge or didn't wrap him up when he hit the hole. Or maybe more of his tackles this year came in pass coverage after a reception by the TE, while last year he didn't have to make those tackles because the TE wasn't open enough to throw to, etc.. What if he gave up a 1st down catch because he tried to jump the route, but then tackles the guy after he gets the yards? It was a bad play, but he records a tackle anyhow.

Tackles are like RBIs, in that you can get the same credit for a double in the gap as you do for grounding out when there happened to be a man on 3rd and fewer than two outs. They are extremely context-dependent, rely on the contributions of other players as well as opportunities outside of the tackler's control, and can come about even if he made a mistake. It's just much to raw a metric to be useful in this case, and the lack of a better alternative ready to hand doesn't change that.

No.

You don't think that you would notice an OLB hitting people far downfield regularly just from normal game watching? You feel that this requires some magical all 22 and advanced stats to be able to take the solo tackle rate along with what you see in the broadcasts for an OLB and say "he really couldn't have declined significantly?"

That is nonsense.

You shouldnt do a detailed ranking of OLBs on solo tackles alone, but to refute a claim of someone "being a shadow of his former self" after 7 games inthink you can feel very comfortable. Don't overthink this, Collins was a good football player and a great Patriot.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Honestly, I don't know where Collins was making all his tackles. My point was in regards to solo tackles as a stat only. BTW that criticism (that the tackles were all downfield) was often leveled against Jerod Mayo as he got older.

 

[JokersWildJIMED]

This is silly.For goodness sake, he has played in about 60% as many games as he did last season and has 60% as many solo tackles as he did last season. He has had 2 INTs on the season, and while his assists and sacks are off a bit......there isn't anything to substantiate "he was a shadow of the player he was last year."

A big reasn their pass rush has been so weak thus far is that neither Collins or Hightower have generated anything on their blitzes. Each have been devastating in that role in the past and Hightower really was slowed by his injury. Not sure what went on with Collins, but even his interceptions this year were on horrible passes into his stomach and not any great athleticism. Even though Collins play seemed fine and no one really criticized it before the deal, that does not mean it was up to par.

 

[Ralphwiggum]

What's the argument that BB traded Jamie Collins in the middle of the season in which the Pats look like legit Super Bowl contenders where it isn't because he thinks they are bettter off without the guy?

Not saying he might not be wrong. But you better some pretty strong with evidence to the contrary before I am doubting him on this.

 

[Rick Burlesons Yam Bag]

A big reasn their pass rush has been so weak thus far is that neither Collins or Hightower have generated anything on their blitzes. Each have been devastating in that role in the past and Hightower really was slowed by his injury. Not sure what went on with Collins, but even his interceptions this year were on horrible passes into his stomach and not any great athleticism. Even though Collins play seemed fine and no one really criticized it before the deal, that does not mean it was up to par.

I will admit that I have not watched the games to that level of granularity, and supporting your point, his sacks are down, but Ninkovich being gone has also hurt them some.

 

[tims4wins]

Nink has sucked in the 4 games he has played. Or best case been invisible.

 

[Marciano490]

I understand why a tackle at or close to the LOS is a better outcome than one ten yards down field, but how often and in what circumstances does a player make a tackle downfield he originally missed? And if he's making a solo tackle in the open field isn't it possible he's saving more yards than making a tackle at the LOS where there are more lines of defense behind him? Tackles may not be a perfect stat, but I don't see how it's a bad or inapt stat either.

 

[mauf]

Zach Brown is leading the NFL in tackles by a wide margin. He's a fine player, but he isn't in the discussion for best LB in the league.

 

[Super Nomario]

Right, I mean I don't buy all of Lombardi's tweets, but there is likely some kind of middle ground here.

I think middle ground is right. If Collins was a "shadow of the player he was last year" he wouldn't have played as much as he has this year. OTOH, The Ringer guys ranked him as the best off-ball-LB in the NFL other than Luke Kuechly. If Belichick agreed with that assessment, he wouldn't be coming off the field for a sixth-round rookie or getting traded for basically a fourth-round pick.

I give Lombardi's comments some weight because he is presumably in a position to know what Patriots linebackers are coached to do. It seems like he's being hyperbolic with some of his statements. FWIW, he is almost as negative on Hightower's play this year.

I'd actually me more curious to know what his play was like last year after he came back from injury - this may be more than just a half year sample.

Collins missed time with an illness last year, not an injury. I'd be pretty surprised if that was still affecting him.

 

[Van Everyman]

Lawyer Milloy had 12 fewer tackles in 2002 than he had in 2001 – going from 77 to 65. That's not exactly dropping off a cliff but that didn't remotely tell the whole story. He def. was a shadow of his former self that year And he played a position where open field tackles were even more important than OLB.

 

[tims4wins]

I think middle ground is right. If Collins was a "shadow of the player he was last year" he wouldn't have played as much as he has this year. OTOH, The Ringer guys ranked him as the best off-ball-LB in the NFL other than Luke Kuechly. If Belichick agreed with that assessment, he wouldn't be coming off the field for a sixth-round rookie or getting traded for basically a fourth-round pick.

I give Lombardi's comments some weight because he is presumably in a position to know what Patriots linebackers are coached to do. It seems like he's being hyperbolic with some of his statements. FWIW, he is almost as negative on Hightower's play this year.


Collins missed time with an illness last year, not an injury. I'd be pretty surprised if that was still affecting him.

Right I meant to write illness. But perhaps he wasn't playing great at the end of last year post-illness... and they chalked it up to the illness... but then he came back this year and was still at that level... isn't that a conceivable scenario?

 

[pokey_reese]

No.

You don't think that you would notice an OLB hitting people far downfield regularly just from normal game watching? You feel that this requires some magical all 22 and advanced stats to be able to take the solo tackle rate along with what you see in the broadcasts for an OLB and say "he really couldn't have declined significantly?"

That is nonsense.

You shouldnt do a detailed ranking of OLBs on solo tackles alone, but to refute a claim of someone "being a shadow of his former self" after 7 games inthink you can feel very comfortable. Don't overthink this, Collins was a good football player and a great Patriot.

Look, I like Collins and was as surprised as anyone, but in the same post you are saying to use tackles on one hand, and then turning around and saying don't overthink the stats, just trust your gut.

And honestly, no, I don't think that regular game watching would tell us what you think. Everything about the advance of sports analytics basically says that conventional fan viewing creates a 'lying eyes' problem of selective memory and bias. If you want to say that he still looked as good as ever out there to you, fine, I won't argue. But I will still take issue with your use of solo tackles to defend that position.

Marciano, I agree that there are many contexts for tackles down field, which is in part why it matters to know if each play was a run or pass play, or if the LB was near the LOS or dropped back in coverage, etc.. But I still think that a.) an improved stat could be created from tackles, and b.) tackles as they are now don't tell us how well a player is doing.

 

[McBride11]

Tackles count the times he was in the right position by freelancing or following his assignment. What it doesnt show is how many times he broke scheme and free lanced. This leads to longer runs, open options / flats to RBs, or a TE or underneath route going uncovered.
He can run and jump like nobody's business, but if BB says hey this gap was yours and you went here instead and so the RB gained 5 instead of 2, well that is a big deal. Or he blitzed the wrong gap thinking itd be a better option and this dline stunted into him bc that was the called play.

Unless we know the calls and have a broader view its tough to say what was really going on. Maybe he always did this crap but he lost a step or 2 and cant cover the mistakes anymore.
I

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

Yeah...I don't care about any of that shit. Maybe the tackle total is a sign he was playing well. Maybe it's a sign that he was run at more then last year and he got tackles based on sheer opportunity amount. Maybe it's a million things in between.

If you really give a shit, the best thing you can do is just watch some film. How was his reaction time diagnosing run/pass? How often was he caught on his heels? How well could he shake blockers at the second level? These are things that make scheme irrelevant, so there's little ambiguity as to if he was following script or freelancing.

In the film i watched last year, he was a solid A in those categories pretty frequently. Hell, for how quick his reaction speed was, you'd assume he would bite on a bunch of misdirections, but he didn't. At least not that often. And when he did, he had the athleticism to make up for it.

Rewatch a few games with Collins and you can decide for yourself if he was playing like shit.

 

[Reverend]

Another tragic threat turns Yammer.

 

[TheoShmeo]

One stat that is being overlooked is that Collins was only on the field for 60% of the snaps. Part of that is injuries; he just missed time. But part of it is also that BB determined that Collins' play was such that they were better off with Roberts and other guys who started the year on the bench than him. There's some chicken and egg here as at some point BB may have chosen to begin the transition away from a player he knew he could not sign. But if we start with the premise that Belichick wants to win games, that he started to shift away from Collins earlier in the season tells us something as important as tackle totals.

I will also add that my eyes tell me that there was only one game where Collins' contributions were noticeable and Collins-like: the Texans game. He looked like a Great Patriot that night. Otherwise, he looked like, at best, just another guy. More often, he was close to invisible, and his contributions were non-impact. Sure he made plays here and there, but plays here and there is not what we were used to from Jamie Collins.

About three weeks ago my son and I discussed who the Pats should sign if they had to choose, Collins or Hightower. We agreed that it was High, and that it was a no-brainer. Collins had the capacity for the freakish "wow" play, and had made many of them over the years. The extra point/FG blocks. The picks. The athletic moves like closing in on a ball carrier in seemingly an instant. But Hightower always seems to be around the ball and whether he actually makes the play, is always in the picture. I assume that our view was shared by most knowledgeable Pats fans.

This is not happy talk to make myself feel better. Hell, I have a low level concern that there could be some fallout among the players. Not that I am unaware that BB has done this before without repercussions. But while they won in 2003, perhaps the Seymour trade hurt them in 2009 locker room wise. I don't know, and I tend to think it will be fine, but I have some concern. Collins was supposedly popular, there is no Rodney Harrison type proven veteran to replace him and there's that freakish talent that is no longer on the NE sidelines. All that said, BB's PT decisions before the trade and what my eyes told me suggest that Collins' play this season was, in fact, much below his past level. And this Roberts kid looks promising.

 

[JohnnyK]

One stat that is being overlooked is that Collins was only on the field for 60% of the snaps. Part of that is injuries; he just missed time. But part of it is also that BB determined that Collins' play was such that they were better off with Roberts and other guys who started the year on the bench than him.

Where does this number come from? According to FO Collins has played 78.9% of defensive snaps for the year, and that includes the game he missed.
He only played 62% of the snaps against Buffalo, but that's by far his lowest number this season in games he has played in. Maybe that's what you're referring to, but you make it sound like that are the stats for the whole season.

 

[TheoShmeo]

Where does this number come from? According to FO Collins has played 78.9% of defensive snaps for the year, and that includes the game he missed.
He only played 62% of the snaps against Buffalo, but that's by far his lowest number this season in games he has played in. Maybe that's what you're referring to, but you make it sound like that are the stats for the whole season.

Mea culpa. Crappy reading comprehension on my part this morning. I took Yammer's comment about 60% in the wrong way.

That said, I think that they played him in only 62% of the snaps against Buffalo is telling. Though they may have known that a Collins trade was coming or at least possible, so maybe it's less telling.

And that said, there have been games other than Buffalo when Roberts seemed to be on the field in his stead at times, and to the extent that happened, I think that does give us a vista into Belichick's evaluation of Collins' play.

 

[CoffeeNerdness]

Starting at LB per Rotoworld.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Starting at LB per Rotoworld.

Oops