The Evil Empire Revisited: Lakers General thread
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I mean, it sucks if you are a Lakers fan and it obviously sucks for Kobe, but in the large scope of things this is basically a non-factor. The Lakers were not going anywhere in the playoffs with or without Kobe. Somehow, ESPN will ignore this and still cover the shit out of this story and act like the Lakers chances at winning it all are over, as if they really ever had a chance.
Warriors announcer said if coach Mark Jackson were not a religious man, no way he could have remained as relatively calm as he did. Three worst calls, all late 4Q (4Q refs, all of you):ElUno20 said:
Kobe went down untouched late in the fourth quarter under his own leg injuries and the Warriors got called.
Meta Whatever grabbed a defensive rebound and a Warriors players' arm with it, practically ripped the arm out of the guy's socket. Foul on Ws.
Superman set an illegal pick, Stephen Curry ran into it, fell down, and got called.
Never been so pissed over officiating in a non-Celtics game. The joke about Stern making a phone call to head refs before certain games got a lot less funny last night.
soxhop411 said:
I hate the Lakers and have never been too fond of Kobe. But when he went down, all I could think was that he was a fallen warrior. He pisses everyone off and calls out his teammates unnecessarily sometimes. But, he's as hard on himself as he is on everyone else. He would like everyone to be like him -- tireless, striving, focused, relentless. But, they don't always live up to his expectations, and he gets frustrated. Still, I have to say that I respect him as a player, and when he retires, the NBA will be a very different place.
I don't know what I think of Kobe. My initial reaction is that I am sad, and I'd have rather seen him go down fighting, but I have to let it sink in.
What I do know is that I am 100% convinced the refs in this league are beyond incompetent. And I don't mean as in "really fucking incompetent", I mean it's something beyond that. Let's face it, these games have been rigged in favor of the Lakers down the stretch. Stern is altering games to get the Lakers into the playoffs. That is what's happening.
What I do know is that I am 100% convinced the refs in this league are beyond incompetent. And I don't mean as in "really fucking incompetent", I mean it's something beyond that. Let's face it, these games have been rigged in favor of the Lakers down the stretch. Stern is altering games to get the Lakers into the playoffs. That is what's happening.
The free-throw disparity is right there with Game 7 of 2010 finals as clear-cut shank jobs that could only make Tim Donaghy smile.
I would definitely rather have seen Kobe and the lakers get rolled in the first round. Looks like Kareem's scoring record is safe, as unlikely as it was that Kobe even made a run at it.
You gotta feel sorry for Kobe. If you was our player, we would worship him.
And it's not only that his injury jeopardizes the goal of making the playoffs, which is something he worked his ass off while trying to will his teammates to follow through. It's not only that even if they make it, they re toaster than toast.
It's the fact that his injury changes the calculus of guys like Dwight and the team's GM, so his very injury might destroy his team or force it to build without him. That and the fact this might be an inglorious end or the prelude to an inglorious end to a great career.
And it's not only that his injury jeopardizes the goal of making the playoffs, which is something he worked his ass off while trying to will his teammates to follow through. It's not only that even if they make it, they re toaster than toast.
It's the fact that his injury changes the calculus of guys like Dwight and the team's GM, so his very injury might destroy his team or force it to build without him. That and the fact this might be an inglorious end or the prelude to an inglorious end to a great career.
AZ nailed it - if you watched the game and particularly the fouls he cited, the officiating was downright horrible. More to the point, the calls enabled a Laker team that was on the mat for both the game (and possibly their season) get the win.
Regarding Kobe, setting aside his well documented character flaws, the guy is one of the toughest athletes I have ever seen. He is easy to hate but, for me at least, its impossible not to respect the way he approaches the game.
Regarding Kobe, setting aside his well documented character flaws, the guy is one of the toughest athletes I have ever seen. He is easy to hate but, for me at least, its impossible not to respect the way he approaches the game.
For all his character flaws, the guy is an assassin, and as dangerous a guy with the ball and down by 2, as any player ever.
I hate the Lakers more than most, but this is not the way I want them to flame-out.
I hate the Lakers more than most, but this is not the way I want them to flame-out.
Blacken said:
Dominique Wilkins tore his Achilles at 32, came back to have two great seasons in Atlanta (including a quarter of a season w/the Clippers after he got traded) and decent ones in Boston and San Antonio, so I don't see it out of the realm of possibility that an uber-dedicated guy like Kobe could do the same thing.
I didn't catch the game last night and I know that ESPN isn't going to do a satisfactory job of showing the calls, so does anyone of a compilation video of the most egregious calls?
jmcc5400 said:
I have been wondering about that. Can you amnesty an injured player? They are so far over the cap after they re-sign Dwight and coupled with the fact that Kobe is a free agent after next year, it really doesnt matter in cap terms, but in cash, with the luxury tax and his $30M salary next year, it would be a $50M decision for the Buss family.
The other factor is that the Lakers couldn't re-sign Bryant if they amnestied him, which would possibly lead to a fan revolt. He might be even more beloved than Magic among Laker fans.
@ArashMarkazi: Lakers trainer Gary Vitti confirms its a ruptured Achilles tendon and Kobe Bryant will be sidelined 6-9 months.
@KBergCBS: Kobe Bryant's surgery is scheduled for 1 p.m. PT. "It's a third-degree tear. It's gone. Completely torn," said trainer Gary Vitti.
Gunfighter 09 said:
They could sign him again in 2014-2015, which makes sense all around. There is a good column up now on ESPN (Insider, pay side) with all of the specifics as to why they should do this and why Kobe should actually be the one to suggest it publicly:
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/9167145/nba-why-los-angeles-lakers-release-kobe-bryant-amnesty-provision
Ed Hillel said:
I watched last night's game through the lens that the refs would do everything possible for the Lakers and bet on them accordingly - however I was pretty surprised there was no call on the Gasol drive with 10 seconds left. There was some contact and was more of a foul than the previous few calls. In the end Landry had a wide open mid range jumper to win the game so the Warriors are probably kicking themselves over that more than the calls.
mandro ramtinez said:
jmcc5400 said:
Yep, this just pisses me off. this was the best season ever for a Laker-hater, and the season had 2 great endings: humiliation of not making the playoffs or the humiliation of a 1st round sweep. Now, instead, Kobe gets to play the martyred hero, the Lakers get to amnesty him and pick up a number of players (mid level exception, etc), and he can come back the following year with a much better supporting cast. No fun.
I wonder how this affects Howard's calculations, though? On the one hand, they could tell him about the supporting cast they'll give him next year for which he'll be the undisputed leader, with Kobe probably coming back the next year. Or, on the other, he could figure that it's all too much of a mess and leave for less green but more Dwight-friendly pastures.
jon abbey said:
What if they amnesty Kobe and some other teams claims him? Even if Kobe refused to report to that team in 2013-14, they would still technically hold his rights (and thus his transferable Bird rights). So when Kobe did want to come back, the Lakers could probably only offer him chump change given their cap situation while somebody else could offer him real money. I have a hard time seeing Kobe agreeing to a plan in which he not only sits out a full year (when otherwise he might be able to come back midyear) AND the Lakers can't necessarily pay him in 2014-15.
Edit: The Lakers might lose his Bird rights even if he went unclaimed. I'm not really sure how that works. In any case, their ability to pay him in 2014-15 after an amnesty seems to be a real issue.
There was one but Stern's office destroyed it. No, I poked around a bit but couldn't find one. The overwhelming numbers of videos today are on his injury, on which they called a foul that didn't have to be.DreamShake said:
The only Lakers under contract next summer are Nash( who deal will be expiring the next year) and presumably Howard. The chances that Nash retires are probably pretty high. They set it up so they would have basically Dwight, Nash's $9M expiring deal + $45M in cap room in summer of 14 when Kevin Love, Lebron, Kobe etc are free agents.Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
Kevin Love isn't a free agent until the sumer of 2016. Next year, Lebron James has a player option for 20 million that he most likely will exercise.Gunfighter 09 said:
We're both wrong, summer of 15.swingin val said:
http://www.twincities.com/sports/ci_22176971/timberwolves-kevin-love-doesnt-regret-comments-but-says
Fair enough. I was more just commenting on the fact that the free agent class of 2014 isn't all that exciting. I'm not even sure there are any unrestricted guys who deserve the max.
Ed Hillel said:
So, I get that it's inevitable that every spring there are gonna be 15-20 posters who pop up in this forum who weren't around during the regular season (not saying you're one of them, for the record) to post about free throw disparity. And I don't mind having the discussion again. Clearly. But can we at least try to elevate it this time around to include data beyond counting free throws?
For instance, let's think about this chart. Without any context, that chart shows 20 games early in the year where the Lakers consistently shot more free throws than Utah, 25 or so games where they were roughly even, 15 or so games when the Lakers are again consistently higher, and then a spike in the last 15 or so games where the Lakers' free throw numbers jump and Utah's dip. So much of the NBA is rigged talk is confirmation bias. People believe it, and then interpret what they see, both statistically and on tv, in that light. But there are dozens of factors that influence free throw numbers, and there also seems to be a false but common assumption that in a fairly officiated game, free throw numbers should be about even. This isn't really true, and the data doesn't support it. There are teams, for dozens of reasons, who simply draw more fouls than others. The Lakers are one of them. A couple of reasons why:
Pace. The Lakers play at a much faster pace than the Jazz. On the season, they average 96.04 possessions per game compared to just under 92 for the Jazz. Over the last 10 games, that's become even more pronounced, as the Jazz have slowed down to just over 91 possessions per game, and the Lakers have played faster. Over the Last 15 games, the Lakers are averaging 96.3 possessions per game to the Jazz's 91.8. That partially explains the spike. Put simply, the Lakers have had more opportunity to be fouled.
Similarly, the Lakers have been winning more over the last 20 games. They are 14-6 and Utah is 10-10. When you win games, you're given free throws at the end of games.
But most importantly, Dwight Howard is a terrible free throw shooter and teams want to put him on the line. He's 3rd in the league in free throw attempts, and for comparison's sake, he has nearly double the number of free throw attempts (606) than the Jazz's leading free throw attempter (not a word, but whatever), Paul Milsap (321). Howard averages 0.87 free throw attempts per field goal attempt. Utah has nobody who even approaches that. As for the spike, over the last 20 games, Howard has taken 223 free throws. Over the prior 20, he took 135. The total differential between Utah and the Lakers over that period amounts to 206 free throws. That means that Dwight Howard has taken 43% of those free throws. Who is happier that Dwight Howard's taken 223 free throws in the 20 games, the Lakers or their opponents?
So essentially, I get why the Stern conspiracy theorists would look at that chart and think it confirms all of their suspicions. But I think there are plenty of other factors that lead to free throw disparity and that those numbers are not nearly as telling as people seem to think they are.
I understand all the reasons you cited above, I really do, but those last 15-20 games are really just too much. Isn't it just a tad strange the disparity over 60-65 games or so goes from 3-5 to 13-15, and it just happens to coincide with the time that the Lakers and Jazz emerge as the two contenders for the 8th seed? If you have been watching these Lakers games, your eyes should tell you what's happening. It's been painfully obvious. What's most telling to me on that graph, though, is the huge drop for the Jazz. Yeah, they've gone 10-10, but they're basically a .500 team overall. All of a sudden they're dropping 8-10 FT a game consistently?
Those lines over the span are too consistent to be random. I haven't worked with stats for a very long time, but I'm pretty sure if you plugged the first 60-65 games of that chart into a random distribution, the odds of it coming out the way it has over the past 15-20 games would be around null. Like I said, I do understand basketball isn't completely random, and I think you can argue Dwight getting healthy/trying harder may have some effect, but I don't think any combination of everything you cited above could come near covering the gigantic statistical anomaly that appears around the 65 game mark.
Those lines over the span are too consistent to be random. I haven't worked with stats for a very long time, but I'm pretty sure if you plugged the first 60-65 games of that chart into a random distribution, the odds of it coming out the way it has over the past 15-20 games would be around null. Like I said, I do understand basketball isn't completely random, and I think you can argue Dwight getting healthy/trying harder may have some effect, but I don't think any combination of everything you cited above could come near covering the gigantic statistical anomaly that appears around the 65 game mark.
Grin&MartyBarret said:
Against the Spurs, Howard took 27 free throws, almost half the Lakers' free throws. Was it the officiating? No, it was the Spurs deploying their Hack-a-Howard strategy when they were trying to mount a rally. It didn't really work because the Lakers grabbed 11 more rebounds than the Spurs, and therefore ended up taking more shots. Shooting percentages were the same.
And didn't the drop=off in FTs coincide with Howard's injury? I think the uptick in Lakers' FTs is due to Howard becoming more involved in the Lakers' offense.
Ed Hillel said:
Exactly 20 games ago, Mo Williams came back from injury, and a couple of things happened as a result.
Since Williams came back, Favors, Hayward, and Millsap (who are 1st, 2nd and 3rd on the team in FTA/FGA) have seen their usage rates decline by about 3, 4.5 and 2 percent respectively. Additionally, Alec Burks (0.34 FTA/FGA) had his minutes cut 5 by a game, and Randy Foye (0.19 FTA/FGA) saw his increase by 5. And most importantly, of course, Mo Williams started using 23.6% of their possessions. For reference, there are exactly 24 NBA players who play 20+ minutes per game who get to the line less frequently than Mo Williams does. His FTA/FGA rate is 0.14, which is only 0.01 higher than Jason Kidd, who hasn't jumped in 2 seasons. Meanwhile, Al Jefferson has consistently used 27% of the Jazz's possessions and sports an astonishingly bad 0.18 FTA/FGA rate for a big man. Rajon Rondo, who is basically free throw phobic, has a 0.20 FTA/FGA rate.
So in the last 20 games of the season, the Jazz have started giving half of their possessions to two guys who are extremely bad at drawing fouls. As they've done so, they've decreased the usage of their 4 best foul drawers (again, not really a word, but whatever) in Favors, Hayward, Millsap, and Burks. Of course their free throw numbers have dipped substantially.
Another contributing factor is shot selection over a small sample size. Over the last 10 games, 23.93% of the Jazz's shots have been 3s, compared to 20.36% over the first 70 games. For reference, the former percentage would rank 14th if sustained over the entire season, while the latter percentage would rank 28th.
Anyone know what the Spurs/Lakers series odds are? I can't find it anywhere.
I have a friend willing to give me 4-1 odds if I take the Lakers. I feel dirty, but I think they have a decent chance at winning the series.
I have a friend willing to give me 4-1 odds if I take the Lakers. I feel dirty, but I think they have a decent chance at winning the series.
I actually found it soon after I posted. Found one that was +1100! That seems ridiculous, IMO. Can't resist putting down 50 bucks with those odds.scottyno said:
I'd take those odds. Not that I think the Lakers will win, but they do have a shot. Ginobli will (I assume) play for the Spurs and there's no doubt they weren't playing all hands on deck like the Lakers were. The Spurs are, simply, the better team.
At the same time:
-the Spurs are old and hurt.
-they don't have the team speed that kills the Lakers. Leaving aside the Laker victory the other night, games earlier this year btw Spurs-Lakers were tight and this was when the Spurs were flying and the Lakers really struggling
-Howard is revived with Kobe gone, and is clearly reveling in being the man. He was a beast against Houston and Pau seems to be healthy, too. God knows they don't have much more -- even if Nash plays he hasn't been good all year long and the Lakers bench was a weakness even with Kobe and Nash playing (though some murmurs about Jordan Hill being almost ready, which would help them) -- so, again, not saying I'm picking them. That said, even if they're not better without Kobe they are more coherent: better ball movement, Pau is finally being used correctly, and Blake has been strong. If Nash does play to be honest I'd still keep Blake out there more if I'm D'Antoni. And Howard is a force -- is his supporting cast much worse than what he had at Orlando when they made that run?
At 7-1 odds? I'd put down some cash.
At the same time:
-the Spurs are old and hurt.
-they don't have the team speed that kills the Lakers. Leaving aside the Laker victory the other night, games earlier this year btw Spurs-Lakers were tight and this was when the Spurs were flying and the Lakers really struggling
-Howard is revived with Kobe gone, and is clearly reveling in being the man. He was a beast against Houston and Pau seems to be healthy, too. God knows they don't have much more -- even if Nash plays he hasn't been good all year long and the Lakers bench was a weakness even with Kobe and Nash playing (though some murmurs about Jordan Hill being almost ready, which would help them) -- so, again, not saying I'm picking them. That said, even if they're not better without Kobe they are more coherent: better ball movement, Pau is finally being used correctly, and Blake has been strong. If Nash does play to be honest I'd still keep Blake out there more if I'm D'Antoni. And Howard is a force -- is his supporting cast much worse than what he had at Orlando when they made that run?
At 7-1 odds? I'd put down some cash.
Is it weird to think that Steve Blake is the x-factor in this series? With Nash likely out of the picture, for LA to win they need Blake to really contribute as a perimeter scorer. Unless Howard or Pau goes bananas, like 30-15, LA is going to have to make some outside shots to win games, and Blake is their most consistent perimeter player. I think LA needs to get at least one game where Blake or maybe Meeks scores like, 26 points and shoots 6-10 from downtown.