The Epitaph on the 2017 Season

[mwonow]

Which of the Yankees players do you anticipate improving their performance next year?

- Judge is young, but will he be better than he was this year?
- What about all the 33 yr. old guys (Ellsbury, Gardner, Headley, T.Frazier)?...not likely better, and they will struggle to sustain their current level.
- Hicks seems to have figured out strike zone judgment in a big way, but he was about .150+ above his career OPS....probably a genuine improvement, but maybe a little out over his skis, too.
- Gregorious, Castro and Sanchez all had great yrs and are at ages where they can improve (Sanchez especially, which is scary) or at least sustain the level, but I don't see anybody else like that.
-The bullpen is outstanding; and they may get improvement out of Montgomery as a starter, but who else will be better?

The Yankees will be competitive, which is too bad since we'd all prefer them to be an early 90s style AL East doormat, but I do not see them putting together another 100 win Pythag team with their current personnel. The Red Sox are much more likely to get bounce back years from a team full of 20 somethings and ultimately a 100 win level team, than the Yankees.

So this is the rose-colored glasses view of the AL East. FWIW though, in 2016, the Sox got swept by Cleveland. In 2017, the Sox declined from their 2016 performances - every single batter did - and the Yanks are 3 outs from beating the Indians in a five game series.

So, honest question: how far would the Sox need to progress, to not only match 2016 but improve enough to beat Cleveland? And/or how far would the MFYs need to regress, to go from a team that beat the Indians to a team that got swept by them?

FWIW - I root for the Sox too, and I get that you'd prefer to believe that the MFYs will regress and the Sox will bounce back. I hope it's so, but these player-by-player analyses aren't anything more than wishcasting.

 

[streeter88]

I think we just got beaten by the team that will win the WS, and I actually liked the Sox chances in ALCS vs either the Indians or the Yankees. So I am bullish on 2018 if one more piece can be added - someone who hits actual home runs. Plus, I am very much looking forward to a manager that observes apparent injuries, and allows time for them to heal.

Edit: oops, meant to write 2018.

 

[Kielty's Last Pitch]

Can we remember these are human beings playing a game, please? I love the "Sale pitched an extra 2 innings in Baltimore so that's why he sucked in Game 1" crap. Let me tell you, try taking Sale out in the sixth when he's at 75 pitches just because the Sox have a big lead. Jesus H Christ.

I think that's part of the reason why Farrell was fired, because he was too soft with some of his players. There's no doubt in my mind Sale wanted to get his 300th K that night in Baltimore, and Farrell let him.

But no, those 2 extra innings aren't the reason he gave up 9 runs in 9 2/3 postseason innings. It was the cumulative effect of his ML-leading 214 IP that caused him to suck in October.

 

[DJnVa]

This is a fitting wrap up to season:

https://sports.yahoo.com/red-soxs-2018-calendar-features-pablo-sandoval-reason-223513071.html

The Boston Red Sox will continue to be haunted by Pablo Sandoval in 2018 — in more ways than one. Sure, there’s that pesky issue of $18 million they owe him next season, but there’s also this: Sandoval is Mr. April on the Red Sox’s 2018 calendar.

Can we all LOL together on that one? ELLL OHHH ELLL.

 

[uncannymanny]

I’m guessing Sale isn’t Mr. October.

 

[Dr Manhattan]

I think that's part of the reason why Farrell was fired, because he was too soft with some of his players. There's no doubt in my mind Sale wanted to get his 300th K that night in Baltimore, and Farrell let him.

.

This is a VERY interesting point and one which cuts to the crux of what a "manager" is. These guys are multi million dollar athletes with big egos and living in a bubble surrounded by a lot of "yes" people. At the same time, they are the guys with the talent to get it done on the field. Now you can say that a manager should be the parent to say "no you sit, 300Ks is meaningless in the bigger picture" but how do you know that doesnt cause resentment in the clubhouse among veterans who maybe think it was worth something, and in any case, going for it wouldnt affect his performance in the future. Or you can say a manager should be more like a therapist who gets the players motivations and shows them that he supports them and understands it, or maybe they should be somewhere in the middle and try to sit down with Sale and show him that ultimately the clubs best interests are served by him sitting. The problem is it's hard on the outside to know if Sale did demand to get his 300Ks, I don't know how you can say "no doubt" because you have no idea if he did or not. Nor whether Farrell said he could or shouldn't, or if anyone else in the clubhouse or front office had an input. None of us does. And thats just one decision.

I feel more and more convinced that managers roles are way less about which pitchers they send in or which hitters they rest, and much more about the stuff going on with personalities, moods and "unwritten rules and hierarchies", none of which we really have any good handle on. I also think thats why after a handful of years, people being people just tend to get too familiar with each other, a bit bored, a bit resentful because over that time INEVITABLY most teams will fail, you just get to a place where "you need a change to move forward". Otherwise, it would make no sense that over time, every team would find a guy who "did the right thing" in terms of managing game decisions and so forth, and no one would need to change their manager very often. I mean there must be 30 people in the world who know enough about the game to be better than any random internet forum dude, when it comes to the real life experience of dealing with a professional baseball squad. But thats not what happens, managers come in and out all the time, I don't think ultimately it has a lot to do with the stuff we as fans sweat about, they are just very easy things to pin the blame of and drive narratives.

 

[charlieoscar]

But no, those 2 extra innings aren't the reason he gave up 9 runs in 9 2/3 postseason innings. It was the cumulative effect of his ML-leading 214 IP that caused him to suck in October.

There have been reports on Sale's career as a starter posted to this board showing that he has ended the season poorly since 2012. This table (from Baseball Reference) shows how he pitched before and after the All-Star break in each of those seasons. As can be seen, there are many large increases in AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS for each of those years and also a corresponding drop in winning percentage. You will also find that his total IP was lower in three of those years than in this season and equal in one.

Spoiler: Sale's 1st & 2nd halfs

2012	W	L	IP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
1st Half	10	2	102.2	.198	.253	.293	.546
2nd Half	7	6	89.1	.274	.331	.452	.783
2013	W	L	IP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
1st Half	6	8	120.0	.213	.269	.328	.597
2nd Half	5	6	94.1	.251	.299	.385	.684
2014	W	L	IP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
1st Half	8	1	95.0	.190	.237	.271	.508
2nd Half	4	3	79.0	.221	.290	.344	.634
2015	W	L	IP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
1st Half	8	4	119.1	.206	.251	.323	.573
2nd Half	5	7	89.1	.266	.319	.423	.742
2016	W	L	IP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
1st Half	14	3	125.0	.225	.274	.374	.647
2nd Half	3	7	101.2	.230	.286	.369	.655
2017	W	L	IP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
1st Half	11	4	127.2	.200	.241	.321	.562
2nd Half	6	4	86.2	.218	.273	.388	.661

 

[Dr Manhattan]

Does anyone have any solid evidence to back up why though? I mean, his velocity wasn't really down in the playoffs IIRC, or did I miss that? There was an interesting point by Dempster on MLB.com that in the Houston series his knee lift at the start of his delivery was noticeably different on the slider vs the fastball so the Houston hitters maybe found something to "key" on, a kind of tipping of the pitch. They certainly laid off on some very good pitches and hit hard some pitches which didn't seem to be that bad. Could it be that kind of thing thats bugging him later in the season, or is there a clear trend in loss of speed or movement on pitches in general?

 

[Kielty's Last Pitch]

It's fatigue causing his arm slot to be off slightly, Farrell himself admitted it:

"It's one of his main weapons, that arm slot, and yet if it's off a tick, it takes away from the overall depth of the breaking ball. I can't say, because when you look at the course of his career and what history shows, at this point in time of the season, the performance has maybe reflected some of that workload. So, I think they're related. The time of the year, that workload, and maybe some of the definition to the pitches."