The East is wide open!

[pappymojo]

I posted this elsewhere, but why? Because of the Saints game? Ignoring the rest of the season when he's been pretty good.

You have a team sitting in the last WC spot and you're dropping Taylor to start a 5th round rookie on the road against a mediocre team that might be without their starting QB, in a game you likely had a decent chance to win? And that team will have Joey Bosa in Peterman's face all day?

Okay.

I'm not a Bills fan, but Taylor looked bad the week prior as well. Of course, their O-line looks even worse than bad and their receivers don't look all that great either.

I could almost see this as the team going with someone they believe in more. Supposedly, Peterman doesn't have the strongest arm (and he may not perform well under pressure) but he seems to be accurate and to have good timing.

This may not be them throwing in the towel completely.

 

[RedOctober3829]

This is classic Bills Mafia.

 

[5dice]

 

[DJnVa]

I'm not a Bills fan, but Taylor looked bad the week prior as well. Of course, their O-line looks even worse than bad and their receivers don't look all that.

I don’t know—he was 29/40 2TD, almost 300 yards. I know stats don’t tell the whole story but it would take a lot to convince me he’s the issue.

 

[jmm57]

19-27/182/1 until the score was 34-7
10-13/103/1 final 7 min, presumably vs the Prevent D

So he wasn't awful, but quite a bit of stat padding after it was a blowout. He also fumbled it twice, losing one. I would agree he's not the biggest problem, but if he's not your guy you might as well see what you have in the rookie? It's not the first time Tyrod has been benched. He took 7 sacks for 41 yards, so if you think he's not getting it out quick enough that's a pretty big deal. Could just as easily be just awful line play.

Had to edit, the second late TD was a Tyrod rushing td.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Wasn’t there just a quote from a Chip Kelly in the MMQB article this week about how Taylor had improved his game? I’ll look for it...

Edit; yep

“His pocket presence, that’s the most impressive thing. … This is the maturation of Tyrod Taylor that really makes him exciting. … Watch how he has matured as a quarterback. He’ll slide, he’ll buy himself some time. His eyes are always up.”


—Chip Kelly, in a pro-Tyrod Taylor piece for ESPN’s pre-game show Sunday. Very well explained, very good TV by Kelly.

 

[DJnVa]

19-25/182/1 until the score was 34-7
20-15/103/1 final 7 min, presumably vs the Prevent D

So he wasn't awful, but quite a bit of stat padding after it was a blowout. He also fumbled it twice, losing one. I would agree he's not the biggest problem, but if he's not your guy you might as well see what you have in the rookie? It's not the first time Tyrod has been benched. He took 7 sacks for 41 yards, so if you think he's not getting it out quick enough that's a pretty big deal. Could just as easily be just awful line play.

Had to edit, the second late TD was a Tyrod rushing td.

Assuming you meant 10/15 in last 7 minutes, his completion percentage and yard/att were better *before* the prevent defense. I don't know, I don't really care about the Bills either way, I just don't get it.

Maybe they do just think Peterman is better and needed half a season to show it. But benching the veteran for a rookie followed by some losses when they were actually in the playoff spot before the move? I think that risks alienating the locker room.

 

[pappymojo]

That Bills/Jets game was where the entire Jets defense was dancing. It was an ass-whopping. Taylor did not play well, but I agree that he more than likely wasn't the (only) problem. Their offensive line looked really bad.

 

[jmm57]

Assuming you meant 10/15 in last 7 minutes, his completion percentage and yard/att were better *before* the prevent defense. I don't know, I don't really care about the Bills either way, I just don't get it.

Maybe they do just think Peterman is better and needed half a season to show it. But benching the veteran for a rookie followed by some losses when they were actually in the playoff spot before the move? I think that risks alienating the locker room.

I got all jacked up when I had to change the numbers due to the TD pass to Mathews being reversed and posting from my phone. 10-13, fail on my part. Sorry.

Looks like 101 qb rating before, 125 qb rating after. 101 obviously a good number even if stat is flawed. 1 of the sacks for 5 yards came on those final drives.

 

[tims4wins]

Seems like the Bills running game has really let them down in their losses
vs. Panthers: 23 for 69, 3.0
@ Cincy: 24 for 82, 3.4
@ Jets: 22 for 63, 2.9
vs. Saints: 15 for 69, 4.6 (obviously they couldn't run as much since it got out of hand. Also, they had a carry for 36 yards on their opening FG drive. Rest of the game was 14 for 33, 2.4)
Totals: 84 for 283, 3.4
Average game: 21 for 71

In wins:
vs. NYJ: 42 for 190
vs. DEN: 33 for 75
@ ATL: 36 for 117
vs. TB: 33 for 173
vs. OAK: 37 for 166
Totals: 181 for 721, 4.0
Average game: 36 for 144

Even against Denver and Atlanta, they had a ton of attempts, and it is not like either of those games were runaway victories where they just sat on the ball. Both games were within one score within the final 5 minutes.

By DVOA, they are the #22 offense - #21 passing, #25 rushing. Not sure if the rushing is so bad because defenses can focus on it due to the passing game not being very good. But clearly this is a team that, when it is winning, uses the run to set up the throw.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

I think Nathan Peterman did my taxes a few years ago

 

[Sox and Rocks]

I think Nathan Peterman did my taxes a few years ago

I thought he sold clothing with a cheap catalog and overwrought descriptions.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

I thought he sold clothing with a cheap catalog and overwrought descriptions.

That's his brother, J.

 

[Al Zarilla]

I thought he sold clothing with a cheap catalog and overwrought descriptions.

Takes trips like to Burma, er Myanmar.

 

[DJnVa]

I don’t know—he was 29/40 2TD, almost 300 yards. I know stats don’t tell the whole story but it would take a lot to convince me he’s the issue.

SEE???????

 

[tims4wins]

There is a decent chance the Pats will have a chance to wrap up the division in game 12 / week 13 at Buffalo... Who saw that coming?

Yep, this is gonna happen

 

[luckiestman]

At least the Jets broke Buffalos soul this year

 

[Blue Monkey]

I think Nathan Peterman did my taxes a few years ago

Looks like he’ll be doing them again.

 

[Ralphwiggum]

Brady only has four picks over the last two seasons encompassing close to 800 passing attempts.

 

[kelpapa]

I saw this on Twitter
Brady has thrown five picks since January 24 of 2016. Nathan Peterman has thrown five picks since 4 eastern time.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Brady only has four picks over the last two seasons encompassing close to 800 passing attempts.

I could cut his data a million times but since start of 2015 season, he’s thrown 86 TDs and 11 INTs. I mean, c’mon.

 

[singaporesoxfan]

I saw this on Twitter
Brady has thrown five picks since January 24 of 2016. Nathan Peterman has thrown five picks since 4 eastern time.

Accumulating picks. Sam Hinkie is so jealous.

 

[5dice]

With the AFC East wide open for draft pick positioning, which remaining division games are actually scary for the Patriots (aside from cheapshots on the qb in any game)?

I can’t see a home loss unless week 17 is truly meaningless for seeding which doesnt look likely with Pittsburgh in the race with an easy schedule like ours except the Pats game itself.

That leaves:
at Buffalo which is never really hard and that team has hastened their own death with these qb shenanigans. Pats haven’t lost at Orchard Park since 2011.

At Miami, which is always called a “trap” game. They lost late season games there in 2013 and 2016.

I guess they could drop either game and we will see where injuries are.

 

[wilked]

Remaining schedule

vs Dolphins
@ Bills
@ Dolphins
@ Steelers
vs Bills
vs Jets

Every single game Vegas will have them favored by double digits with exception of @ Steelers.

Meanwhile Pittsburgh's schedule

vs Packers
@ Bengals
vs Ravens
vs Patriots
@ Texans
vs Browns

Leaving the Pats game aside, that Baltimore game will be a tough test. @ texans should put up a fight. The rest I think you can pencil in wins (Packers/Bengals/Browns).

If the Patriots lose to the Steelers and finish 13-3, I can't see the Steelers finishing 12-4 (would need loss vs Ravens and one more).

All of which is to say, that game against Pittsburgh will likely decide home field advantage

Jax, meanwhile has this schedule

@ Cardinals
vs Colts
vs Seahawks
vs Texans
@ 49ers
@ Titans

I see them coming out of there with 2 losses, and for the moment don't see them as a real threat to steal a bye

 

[loshjott]

Pats have 6 days after the @ Miami Monday nighter to prep for @ Pittsburgh. I thought the NFL avoided 2 roadies in a row with shorter than usual prep time.

Oh well, you play the games in front of you.

 

[DJnVa]

Not the exact same thing, but Dallas plays the Sunday night game and again Thanksgiving. Everything the NFL does is lip service. The $$ comes first.

 

[SirPsychoSquints]

Remaining schedule

vs Dolphins
@ Bills
@ Dolphins
@ Steelers
vs Bills
vs Jets

Every single game Vegas will have them favored by double digits with exception of @ Steelers.

Meanwhile Pittsburgh's schedule

vs Packers
@ Bengals
vs Ravens
vs Patriots
@ Texans
vs Browns

Leaving the Pats game aside, that Baltimore game will be a tough test. @ texans should put up a fight. The rest I think you can pencil in wins (Packers/Bengals/Browns).

If the Patriots lose to the Steelers and finish 13-3, I can't see the Steelers finishing 12-4 (would need loss vs Ravens and one more).

All of which is to say, that game against Pittsburgh will likely decide home field advantage

Jax, meanwhile has this schedule

@ Cardinals
vs Colts
vs Seahawks
vs Texans
@ 49ers
@ Titans

I see them coming out of there with 2 losses, and for the moment don't see them as a real threat to steal a bye

If the three teams all win out, and the Patriots beat the Steelers, then the Jaguars get the 2 seed. If the Steelers beat the Patriots then we get into Strength of Victory land, with the Patriots in a better position than the Jaguars for the #2 seed. In the event they tie in Strength of Victory, the Patriots would easily win the Strength of Schedule tie-breaker.

 

[Ralphwiggum]

Never mind the East, the entire AFC outside of NE, Pitt and maybe Jax is hot garbage. With KC tanking the AFC West now looks like the worst division in the conference top to bottom.

NE, Pitt, Jax and KC should probably all win their divisions, although with KC losing to the Giants the Chargers and Raiders aren't dead yet.

The Titans are riding high at 6-4 for the first wild card spot, but after that it gets ugly with a bunch of 5-5 and 4-6 teams still in the hunt. That means that not only are Buffalo and Baltimore tied for the 2nd Wild Card spot right now, but the Dolphins, Jets, Chargers, Raiders, Bengals and Texans are still in it. That is an amazing pile of suck, and at least one of those 8 teams will play in an NFL playoff game this year.

Then of course you have the teams that are so bad that they are truly out of it in an overall really shitty year for the AFC, and it warms my heart to see Indy and Denver bringing up the rear with the Browns.

 

[sodenj5]

The first round matchups in the AFC playoffs are going to be hold your nose bad. At least the Steelers are rounding into some form of competition otherwise NE would be running away with the conference title.

 

[Boston Brawler]

I wonder if Pats/Steelers will get flexed to Sunday night. DAL/OAK currently in that slot.

 

[cshea]

I wonder if Pats/Steelers will get flexed to Sunday night. DAL/OAK currently in that slot.

I believe it’s been reported that CBS protected PIT/NE.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

Never mind the East, the entire AFC outside of NE, Pitt and maybe Jax is hot garbage. With KC tanking the AFC West now looks like the worst division in the conference top to bottom.

I was a big fan of Jacksonville early in the year.

Don't let them fool you. If Bortles has to throw 15+ times in a game, they're going to be in trouble. Their passing defense is legit, but this Patriots offense is 2-dimensional and the Jags run defense is shit. The Patriots running backs could soften them up enough to let Brady get 280 yards and a few TDs. This would be a close halftime score, but a 3 possession finishing score.

The Jaguars are not built for the playoffs. Great story this year, but until they get a QB (Cousins?), they're going nowhere fast.

 

[Stitch01]

If the Jags had their current team with a real quarterback they'd be a big problem, and the Pats do have some trouble stopping the run. But yeah, hard to see how a team deathly afraid of throwing the football is going to beat the Patriots in a playoff game. I know the weather wasn't great yesterday, but the Jags were pretty clearly afraid of letting Bortles throw downfield against the semi-pro Browns defense. Not exactly the same defensive strengths and weaknesses, and Jags running game is a bit better and more explosive, but a playoff matchup would remind me of playing the Texans last year. It might not always be pretty, but unless the defense and special teams play a perfect game and go +3 or +4 turnovers they wont hold the Pats under 20, and good luck getting to 20 without a functional quarterback.

Its also why even though the Jags schedule looks soft, they probably arent going to finish 13-3 or 12-4. Arizona isnt very good, but if they go up 10-0 the game is probably over. Hard to be that game script dependent and not take a loss or two in an unexpected place along the way.

 

[The Needler]

I believe it’s been reported that CBS protected PIT/NE.

Nantz said on air yesterday that he and Romo were headed to that game.

 

[Bongorific]

I was a big fan of Jacksonville early in the year.

Don't let them fool you. If Bortles has to throw 15+ times in a game, they're going to be in trouble. Their passing defense is legit, but this Patriots offense is 2-dimensional and the Jags run defense is shit. The Patriots running backs could soften them up enough to let Brady get 280 yards and a few TDs. This would be a close halftime score, but a 3 possession finishing score.

The Jaguars are not built for the playoffs. Great story this year, but until they get a QB (Cousins?), they're going nowhere fast.

From Field Yates:
Jaguars run defense pre-Marcel Dareus trade:
Yards/game: 138.6 (30th in NFL)
Yards/carry: 5.16 (32nd)
Since the trade:
Yards/game: 55.3 (1st)
Yards/carry: 2.55 (2nd)