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The Butler Did It

Discussion in 'Mark Blount's Port Cellar: Celtics Forum' started by RedOctober3829, Sep 19, 2018.

  1. ManicCompression

    ManicCompression lurker

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    This makes me wonder if the sixers FO has watched the nba in 2018. Shooting is the most important skill to have on a team and they now have less of it. Not sure how another high usage guy who’s iffy from deep is going to improve them.
     
  2. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Yes but you are only going to have one of Redick/Chandler/Shamet on the floor at one time with Simmons and Butler with rare exception unless they go super small. I guess they are planning on using Muscala for many of Saric's minutes once he returns.
     
  3. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Embiid is also a franchise cornerstone and is vocal. He talks a ton of trash and has one of the bigger personalities in the league. Prior to Butler arriving, the 76ers had two franchise players. Prior to Butler arriving in Minnesota, the Wolves had 1. Butler is going to a team that won 52 games last year. He was going to a Wolves team that won 32.

    I don't see how the 2 situations are all that comparable. The 76ers were better than the Wolves prior to this trade and better than any team Butler has ever played on... and they are now adding Jimmy Butler. The 76ers are going to live at the FT line.

    The difference between the 2 teams basically comes down to Simmons vs Wiggins and that isn't even close.
     
  4. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    A lineup of Embiid, Simmons, Chandler, Butler and Redick isn't all that small. 4 guys 6'8 and taller. It's a weird lineup because they'd be giving something up at PF but be gaining elsewhere.
     
  5. DeJesus Built My Hotrod

    DeJesus Built My Hotrod Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Initial take here is similar to others with regard to concerns about the 76ers spacing. Butler is clearly the best player in the deal but Philadelphia traded away two versatile wings who were complimentary to the centerpieces of their roster. Butler, for all his talent, isn't as complimentary.

    Unlike Toronto, whose deep/versatile roster makes gameplanning for them difficult, the path to beating the 76ers is clear, even if its easier said than done.

    Finally, until proven otherwise, Philly cannot be ranked ahead of Boston. Toronto for sure is and Milwaukee appears to be at present. But not the 76ers - at least not until they show that they can space the floor consistently.
     
  6. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Fair point and defensively Simmons can defend 4's. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. The NBA is so freakin awesome right now!!
     
  7. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    Chandler looks washed up. If he is getting more than 15 minutes a game that is not a good sign, IMO
     
  8. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    Any word on what the pick is? Any chance it is that 2021 MIA pick?
     
  9. JCizzle

    JCizzle Member SoSH Member

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    I think it's a 2022 2nd rounder
     
  10. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    He played 30 minutes a game last year and has been injured and on a time restriction this year. The Sixers traded 65 minutes away and got 35 back. There is really no one else on the roster to take those minutes. Him and Mike Muscala.

    edit: Neither one really help with spacing, but don't necessarily kill it. Muscala being the better shooter of the 2.
     
  11. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

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    Pretty close on Sept. 28
     
  12. queenb

    queenb Member SoSH Member

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    I think we just disagree on how much of a cancer and a risk Butler is. If he's a great basketball fit, they reach the Finals, and he gets the money he's looking for, they're a tough team and a perennial contender. But if any of those things doesn't happen, I think he'll cause trouble.

    EDIT: By risk I mean long-term. It's definitely worth trying this year.
     
  13. JakeRae

    JakeRae Member SoSH Member

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    The Sixers traded two good players for a top 10 player. They massively won this trade. Minnesota almost certainly could've gotten a better return holding up Houston for future picks but they need to keep a winning team around Towns or it's not worth it, so they needed quality players in return and settled for a mediocre return to hopefully avoid losing Towns too in another couple years.

    I think, when the dust settles, Philly is now a clear contender in the East, and easily ahead of the Bucks, although probably not good enough to challenge Toronto or Boston (once we round into form).

    I understand the spacing and depth issues in Philly, and they aren't trivial, but talent plays over roster construction in general. And, Butler, Embiid, and Simmons is significantly more talented than the Bucks top 3. (I don't think the difference between Butler and Giannis is all that large except for Butler's health issues and after that, it really isn't close at all.)

    It is also not that hard to add a couple quality vets midseason if you have a good team with depth issues. Philly has playing time to offer and a competitive team that buyout vets should want to run toward. They also have a couple expiring mid-tier contracts they could use to acquire additional talent, most likely by absorbing longer deals. One example would be offering Bayless for Korver. Philly would get a useful player who is still an elite shooter and Cleveland would get a solution to their luxury tax problem for next year. In other words, I don't think we are looking at the Philly playoff roster right now and, while I don't expect them to add gamechanging talent, I do expect marginal moves (like how they added Bellinelli and Ilyasova a year ago) will round out their roster into a much better balanced whole.

    Another thing is that while Embiid and Simmons have several flaws, both play with real effort on both ends, so I don't think Butler's intensity issues are likely to present the same problems in Philly as they did in Minnesota.
     
  14. Devizier

    Devizier Member SoSH Member

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    I don't think Butler is a top ten guy anymore, but this is unquestionably a great move for Philly.
     
  15. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    Yea, I am unsure Butler is even top 20. But even if you think he is too 10, it is not just as simple as plugging in a new guy. There is fit and spacing and personnel to consider. It's one thing when you're plugging in a LeBron or Durant but for as good as Butler is he has his own shortcomings which can create spacing issues
     
  16. JakeRae

    JakeRae Member SoSH Member

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    He was 4th in RPM last year and 7th the year before (although be was 16th and 10th by BPM). I don't trust win shares as a value metric since it does crazy things like say Capela was a top 4 player on a rate basis last year and generally just has too much year to year variation, but it had Butler at 16th and 6th by ws/48.

    In short, I think he's pretty clearly been a borderline top 10 player statistically the last 2 years. I wouldn't argue too much if you places him in the 11-15 range instead of top 10. He may also deserve a downward adjustment, much like Chris Paul, because of health issues.
     
  17. DannyDarwinism

    DannyDarwinism Member SoSH Member

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    Bayless was included in the deal.

    Crazy to think of the talent on this roster considering the fluky shit that’s happened with Fultz and now Zhaire Smith, who’s done for the year, in part due to complications with his foot rehab brought on by... food allergies.
     
  18. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    The 76ers will be playing shorthanded in Memphis tonight too. Meh.
     
  19. Rustjive

    Rustjive Member SoSH Member

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    I don't think that Philly 'won' this trade even if Butler signs long term. To me it represents Philly setting a hard cap on their ceiling. That cap space that they had saved up to attract a max evaporates, unused, and they trade away 2 pieces that either would've fit in as key starting role players and/or bench depth in Saric and Covington in that scenario. In essence, what could've been a big 4 is now a big 3. Then, look at their window - Brown had basically said that they had to put together all their pieces by the end of SImmons' rookie contract. Post-extension, Butler is signed for his age 30-34 seasons. When Simmons enters his prime at 25, 26, 27, Butler is 32, 33, 34. For the franchise, the only way that it makes sense is if they think that with Butler this year they'd have a real shot at a championship (which is delusional IMO) OR if they think they can't get anyone as good as Butler or Butler himself in the upcoming free agency (in which case you get the player without losing assets in Saric and Covington). For a market the size of Philly with the pieces that Philly has, that's sad.

    Finally, armchair psychology and all, but adding Butler to the locker room for me represents giving up on the Fultz project.
     
  20. DannyDarwinism

    DannyDarwinism Member SoSH Member

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    Fwiw, Sixers title odds just went from 20/1 to 16/1 in the Westgate sportsbook. My wild-ass guess is that’s about the same movement I’d expect to see from a handful of guys generally considered ranked in the 10-20 range.
     
  21. DannyDarwinism

    DannyDarwinism Member SoSH Member

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    They can still get around 20 mil in cap space this summer, even with Butler’s hold and could clear more long term with some moves. They didn’t have to move any of their good picks either. I was a Dario fan, but he’d regressed significantly this year, so I think moving him before the bloom fell further off his rose was smart.

    I do agree with your last paragraph though. They can’t have much hope that Fultz is a significant piece of their puzzle now.
     
  22. DeJesus Built My Hotrod

    DeJesus Built My Hotrod Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Another thing pointed out by The Ringer about this trade is how Butler's presence impacts Fultz' development. And its not just figuring out what line-ups suit Fultz. If Butler is as tough a teammate (or as much as a leader of a teammate as HRB thinks) as he is reputed to be, its hard to see how Fultz' confidence will improve. Maybe it will all be fine but there are now questions about Fultz longer term prospects in Philly. Maybe he is a piece that they can send out for some shooting.
     
  23. JakeRae

    JakeRae Member SoSH Member

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    Philly can still clear space for a max contract (or at least close go onea) and keep Butler if they unload Fultz and don't keep any of their other FA (and don't make any trades involving future commitments).

    In terms of luring a better FA, that's a bit crazy. The only two options for that are Durant and Kawhi, and there is no reason to suspect either is interested in Philly. Kyrie and Klay aren't better and, again, it is hard to see how Philly was going to land either.
     
  24. DannyDarwinism

    DannyDarwinism Member SoSH Member

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    Yeah, I really think they should try and move him now while they’re in the championship window and he still has some value. And no, Sixers fans in the Twitterverse, he’s not gonna be the centerpiece in a Bradley Beal trade package.
     
  25. JakeRae

    JakeRae Member SoSH Member

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    6,266
    He's more likely to be a salary dump in the off-season to clear cap space to sign Terry Rozier.
     
  26. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    I think Fultz is a likely trade candidate if they can find anything even remotely decent for him. Butler might make him cry.
     
  27. DannyDarwinism

    DannyDarwinism Member SoSH Member

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    To follow up on this:

     
  28. DannyDarwinism

    DannyDarwinism Member SoSH Member

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    Good point, but not gonna lie, that would sting.
     
  29. JakeRae

    JakeRae Member SoSH Member

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    I was looking at the 2019 FA class and thinking about the best talents/fits that seem like realistic targets. Rozier is the obvious choice. I'm sure Philly will be in on recruiting whoever might actually be available of Kevin, Klay, Kawhi, and Kyrie, but I don't actually see them landing any of them. Kemba is the next best player available but doesn't really fit. Kirstaps will get matched at any level. Khris is another possible fit. The center class doesn't make much sense for Philly except possibly Horford, who also isn't a realistic option.
     
  30. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

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    That’s not how I remember it. It didn’t look like the slam dunk it does now, but everyone acknowledged that the Cs got the most valuable piece in the deal, and anyone who thought otherwise did so because they had a false impression of IT’s health.

    To me, the Wolves have their cake and eat it with this deal. Good players now, plus Saric is still young and improving. They didn’t get an MVP candidate or maybe even a player who can be as good as Butler, but the chances of that were always slim, no matter how many picks they got.
     
  31. DannyDarwinism

    DannyDarwinism Member SoSH Member

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    Rozier gets you more creation on the ball, but I’d be pushing hard for Middleton if I were Brand. Embiid/Butler/Simmons/Middleton/Shamet is all sorts of problematic.
     
  32. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    2,558
    They won't have the best 2-way player in any series, but Kyrie is arguably the best offensive player in the East, particularly in a playoff situation. That matters, especially because the Celtics, when they're in sync, are really good on D anyway.
     
  33. Gash Prex

    Gash Prex Member SoSH Member

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    I really don’t love this for the sixers - it helps this year but he is going to be paid a ton of money next year in his age 30 season and I’m not convinced he’ll be worth it.

    Wait somebody thinks that Butler is better than Kyrie?
     
  34. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    When you factor in defense, they are pretty close. Butler made some national top 10 lists this preseason and Kyrie did not. I think after the top 7-9 players (Durant, Curry, Harden, James, Giannis, Davis, Kawhi, Embiid*, Jokic*) the next 5-10 are all pretty close in value and comes down to personal preference. Butler, Irving, Oladipo, Lilliard, Westbrook, George, KAT off the top of my head. It's a pretty ridiculous league when Westbrook is not a unanimous top 10 player. Of course some of this may change as the season continues but Irving is clearly in the 2nd or 3rd group of players depending on how you group the first 7-9 players.

    *Could be closer to the 2nd group than the first.
     
  35. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    Hot takez are hot!
     
  36. Cellar-Door

    Cellar-Door Member SoSH Member

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    Right now... yes I think he's a better all-around basketball player than Kyrie, he's good at everything and a very good defender, Kyrie is better at most offensive areas but is a minus defender.
    But Kyrie is 3 years younger and is a 39$ three point shooter (last 4 plus seasons) vs. 35% on much higher volume,which makes him far more versatile off ball and easier to fit into a system.

    I think it's a good trade for Philly, one of the biggest problems they have is that their offense often stagnates and falls apart. Butler is so efficient offensively getting to the rim, drawing fouls etc, and he does it without turning the ball over which their current offensive options (Simmons/Embiid) are awful at. He's a massive upgrade from Covington in the moment, and you weren't paying Saric long term anyway.

    The concern of course is... what do you do in crunch time? Butler is your most effective player, but can you play him, Embiid and Simmons all at the same time? Simmons is pretty bad off the ball, so that is something to watch.

    TL:DR- top talent at a bargain price, some issues but worth the dice roll
     
  37. DeJesus Built My Hotrod

    DeJesus Built My Hotrod Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    You articulated my badly made point from earlier much better here. The 76ers just became easier to defend on paper but tougher in reality if that makes any sense. In short, teams can now guard the 6ers closer to the paint and potentially slow them near the rim where Butler and Embiid are most effective. Its way easier said than done but the other top teams in the East - Toronto, Milwaukee and Boston - all have personnel and coaching to make it tough on Philly, especially when they absolutely need buckets.

    That said, I agree with other posters who have noted that the roster is still in flux and that they will, no doubt, add some shooting. However the guys being discussed such as Korver are one-dimensional types and leave the team vulnerable on defense. The 76er clearly got the most talented player out of this trade but the pieces they gave up hurt them too even if you think we've seen peak Saric (I don't - I love his game).

    On the other hand, I think the T-Wolves did well on this trade and love their depth now. If Rose's resurgence is real, they may surprise people.
     
  38. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    I never noticed Butlers low TO%. Embiid isn't bad though, especially in the early going this year. Simmons is as bad as Smart.
     
  39. Deathofthebambino

    Deathofthebambino Drive Carefully SoSH Member

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    I think Rose's resurgence is real, and is one of the reasons they finally made the move to get rid of Butler. I also find it interesting that they made the trade the day after they finally decided to utilize KAT the way they should. He had 39 points and 19 rebounds last night on 15/27 shooting (2/5 from three). That's his season high in shot attempts by a full 9 shots. His previous high was when he went for 25/16/6/4 in a win against the Lakers on 18 shots, and then the next night, he took 17 shots and went 28/16/4/2 in a win against Utah. Then he took 13 shots a game in each of the next three games, and 16 in the final game before last night, all of which were losses.

    It's like a fucking lightbulb finally went off in someone's head, and they realized their best player is KAT, and they need to feed him the ball, and if that's the kind of offense they need to run, Butler becomes expendable, and Saric and Covington bring a lot to the table. It's almost like they are trying to take Philly's role players, and use them the way Philly should have, except Philly is doing it around Embiid and Simmons, while Minnesota is doing it with KAT, Wiggins and Rose.

    I think this trade makes the TWolves really fucking good. Okogie and Taj Gibson coming off the bench gives them a lot of options. The only thing I don't like about their team is the guy roaming the sidelines. I will never buy into Thibs, and don't think he could win with the '86 Celtics.
     
  40. DannyDarwinism

    DannyDarwinism Member SoSH Member

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    I think Butler’s impact on the other end could end up being significant as well, especially for playoff matchups. For all the love RoCo gets for his defensive advanced metrics, versatility, and his ability to disrupt passing lanes, as many of us witnessed last spring, he is not a very good on-ball defender. Thr Celtics did a great job of exploiting him in the playoffs with Tatum isos or whenever he switched onto Rozier. Assuming Tatum becomes the every-tool-in-the-box guy we all think he can be, Butler stands a better chance trying to defend him than Cov.
     
  41. Cellar-Door

    Cellar-Door Member SoSH Member

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    Of course 1 thing about PHI and crunch time, they were already bad in crunch time because Embiid is a 32% shooter and SImmons can't shoot outside the paint. I think Jimmy while not helping spacing, is more capable of creating his own shot than anyone else, and he'll by default improve them there.
    The other question is how Embiid and Simmons (especially Simmons) handle having Jimmy come in and take over all the big possessions (which he will, and should).
     
  42. DeJesus Built My Hotrod

    DeJesus Built My Hotrod Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    26,115
    I believe you are right that Butler is the better on-the-ball defender as it passes the eye test. That said, he ranked significantly lower than Covington in most defensive categories. Saric is pretty highly rated in some defensive metrics including DWS and D-Rating where he was well ahead of Jimmy Buckets. I get that defensive metrics aren't perfect and I want to be clear that Philly had to do this deal. Its just not entirely clear how much better they are now versus before the trade.

    Covington, metrics-darling or not, and Saric are very good players and fit today's NBA extremely well. Philly will likely struggle to replace them on both ends.


    Edit: As a side note, Covington led the entire league in deflections (thank you for the Hustle Stats - I am in an NBA.com hole now!) in '17-18 and is second thus far this season. I know we have debated him here in the past but this guy is, generally speaking, really versatile. Thibs must be sweating extra amounts at the thought of having him as a defender.
     
  43. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Quite the starting lineup tonight. Embiid, Simmons, Shamat, Redick and Fultz.
     
  44. Deathofthebambino

    Deathofthebambino Drive Carefully SoSH Member

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    And it's working, mostly because Redick can't fucking miss.
     
  45. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    It would be very interesting if PHI decides to go this route. True they can create approximately $32MM of cap space next year if they can get rid of Fultz for nothing (the gift that keeps on giving!) but if they do that, it will be interesting to see how they fill out a roster when the "Big 4" have approximately $120M in cap space taken up among the 4 of them.

    For numbers, see: http://www2.philly.com/philly/sport...-covington-dario-saric-analysis-20181110.html
     
  46. Deathofthebambino

    Deathofthebambino Drive Carefully SoSH Member

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    29,260
  47. LondonSox

    LondonSox Robert the Deuce SoSH Member

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    Chandler has been hurt and they are working him back in he was on a minute restriction and he's fine. A solid bench wing, nothing exciting.

    I would love to hear why Butler isn't a top 20 player when he's been a two way top 10 player for the last number of years.

    As for the rest.
    I'm less worried about the locker room stuff because embiid and Simmons are super competitive and play defense, which was butlers issue.
    Again with Fultz he's working his ass off, butler might be a dick or not, but his complaints were effort. Clearly a risk though.

    I'm thinking the sixers are going to try to get korver with the extra roster spot.

    Butler is so so needed for the playoffs and the 4th. They need a guy who can get his shot.

    I'm sad to give up too players who were so versatile and useful, but I get it Butler is a top 10 (or 15 whatever not top 5 but really good) two way player. You have 3 two way players now. I wonder if they make a run at Middleton. He'd be the perfect not max guy but would be a great great fit.

    Honestly the Fultz result is just a Colangelo franchise killer if something doesn't change.

    Sixers with cap space (but not max) and a lineup of Simmons, butler, Tatum,? And embiid plus the kings pick this year and the heat pick in 2021 would be one ridiculous position

    Overall I think the sixers decided the only better options than butler are long shots at free agency. (Kawhi, KD, Klay) and better to get their guy early and build around the core.

    I love Covington and Dario though. But this does make the sixers better. Assuming they are signing him. I worry about the longer end of his contract given the abuse he's taken. If he doesn't stay obviously it was a baaaad move.
     
  48. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

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    First off, congrats. Great move by the Sixers new front office. Butler, Simmons and Embiid is a BIG3. All provide solid defense. Probably can hide some good shooters that aren't plus defenders. I agree that adding Korver would be a smart move. If you could add some value by dangling Markelle I'd move on from the melodrama. Some players aren't built for the spotlight and intense cities.
     
  49. Ale Xander

    Ale Xander Member SoSH Member

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    Players better than Butler:
    Lebron
    Durant
    Curry
    Green
    Thompson
    Irving
    Tatum
    Jokic
    Harden
    C. Paul
    Giannis
    KAT
    Brow
    Porzingis
    Westbrook
    P. George
    Embiid
    Lillard
    Aldridge
    Derozan
    Kawhi
    Gobert
    Hayward once healthy.

    He's probably top-25, depending on how you rate guys like Mitchell and Wall. Top-30, sure.
     
  50. amarshal2

    amarshal2 Member SoSH Member

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    Tatum? Hayward? Aldridge? Derozan?

    Cmon man. Be serious. He’s a top 15 player for sure.
     

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