The Best Defense is a Good Offense - Pats 2016 Defense Discussion

[DJnVa]

Saints are set to release James Laurinaitis--wonder if the Pats would like to give him a look-see.

Mike GarafoloVerified account ‏@MikeGarafolo 16h16 hours ago


Saints LB James Laurinaitis will see doc this week and, if deemed healthy, will be released off IR and free to sign elsewhere, sources say.

 

[dcmissle]

To pair with Long in an oldies-but-goodies thread?

 

[j44thor]

To pair with Long in an oldies-but-goodies thread?

They would make a nice tag team, James would obviously be Animal to Long's Hawk.

 

[DJnVa]

To pair with Long in an oldies-but-goodies thread?

He's only 29, and until this year had never missed a game. The Saints had voted him as a captain. Seems like a good locker room guy.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Can he actually....like, move? If he's a good guy but slower than an injured mastiff I don't think he'd have a place here. The Pats lack athleticism on defense. I'm not sure he can provide that.

 

[dcmissle]

He's only 29, and until this year had never missed a game. The Saints had voted him as a captain. Seems like a good locker room guy.

And their defense is so awesome they are letting him walk? Sean Payton screwing this one up?

I hate Jeff Fisher with the passion of a 1000 suns, but he seems to have nailed Chris Long.

 

[DJnVa]

And their defense is so awesome they are letting him walk? Sean Payton screwing this one up?

If he's healthy I think they have to bring him off IR and they can't reactivate him to the 53 because they already did that with someone.

I'm not advocating we sign him to some massive deal here.

 

[dcmissle]

If he's healthy I think they have to bring him off IR and they can't reactivate him to the 53 because they already did that with someone.

But he's only 29.

 

[Van Everyman]

Volin (I know, I know) suggested in his film review that the Pats seemed to have an awfully complex scheme last week given how they were running guys like Roberts and McClellin out there. My eyes agreed w that assessment.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/patriots/2016/11/16/onfoot/JZhWIhF0j97QA8Wy4vCToO/story.html

Obviously that wasn't all of it – when your total lack of a pass rush gives a guy like Wilson 15 seconds to find a guy, coverage is going to fall apart as it did with the Baldwin TD near the half. But a number of the confused looking plays on defense—think: Hightower deciding to blitz in the second half while nobody picked up his guy—suggest that maybe the game plan was a bit too sophisticated for the personnel.

Is it possible Patricia had this all drawn up before the bye week – and they didn't really make any (or enough) adjustments after the Collins trade? I know they don't just game plan a week out.

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

I'd like to see them get back to a 3-4 base.I know they run a lot of different fronts but I think the personnel they have is better suited in a 3-4. Left to right Long, Brown, Flowers with Nink, Hightower, Mingo, Sheard at LB. It gets Sheard, Flowers, Nink and Long all on the field at the same time. I would like to think that would generate some pass rush.

I don't think the secondary is as bad as it looked last Sunday. Butler and Ryan are a good tandem. Ryan has been a roller coaster ride his entire career but overall he's not an awful corner. Coleman may not be the answer at nickel. What happened to Jonathan Jones anyway? Is he hurt? Cyrus Jones sucks. I called it when they picked him but I was hoping I was wrong. He's not even a consistent KR... DMC is still great. Chung is lost in coverage but that's nothing new. He can't defend deep. He's the one they should have spying the RB.

Not sure why Collins was let go now. Even if he wasn't having a great year or not following orders he was a presence that opposing offenses needed to account for. I hope Sunday wasn't a sign of things to come, more just Seattles offense outplaying our scheme.

 

[Super Nomario]

I'd like to see them get back to a 3-4 base.I know they run a lot of different fronts but I think the personnel they have is better suited in a 3-4. Left to right Long, Brown, Flowers with Nink, Hightower, Mingo, Sheard at LB. It gets Sheard, Flowers, Nink and Long all on the field at the same time. I would like to think that would generate some pass rush.

I think a 3-4 makes sense. One of the sacks Sunday was on a play where the blocking scheme matched Ninkovich on a RB - they need more stuff like that, because Flowers is the only one who can beat an OL one-on-one. I'm not crazy about the group you laid out, either in coverage or in run defense. I could see something like:

3-man DL: Flowers - Brown - Branch with Long rotating in for Flowers and Valentine / Hamilton for Brown and Branch
4-man LB group: Sheard / McClellin - Roberts - Hightower - Ninkovich
In regular nickel situations, one of the big guys comes off and Sheard / Ninkovich play on the ends, but they still have some disguise possibility with Hightower's ability to rush
In passing situations, get Mingo or Van Noy on for Roberts to give even more pass rush / blitzing / disguise dimension. Hopefully one of those guys can cover, too.

I don't think the secondary is as bad as it looked last Sunday. Butler and Ryan are a good tandem. Ryan has been a roller coaster ride his entire career but overall he's not an awful corner. Coleman may not be the answer at nickel. What happened to Jonathan Jones anyway? Is he hurt? Cyrus Jones sucks. I called it when they picked him but I was hoping I was wrong. He's not even a consistent KR... DMC is still great. Chung is lost in coverage but that's nothing new. He can't defend deep. He's the one they should have spying the RB.

I think it's time to pull the plug on Cyrus Jones' returning - I just don't see any way he gets to trustworthiness this season. He's flashed enough talent that I'd like him to get another shot next offseason, but I'd hate a playoff game to come down to him fielding a punt cleanly. Focus on his development as a defensive back. He's better in press than off, which also describes Rowe and Ryan, so run a press-heavy scheme and live with the fact that teams will hit you with man-beaters (as the Seahawks did).

Not sure why Collins was let go now. Even if he wasn't having a great year or not following orders he was a presence that opposing offenses needed to account for. I hope Sunday wasn't a sign of things to come, more just Seattles offense outplaying our scheme.

The depressing part to me is how bleak the future looks. There was a hiccup from 2009-2012 or so where the old guard of defenders like Seymour, Rodney, Vrabel, Samuel, Bruschi, etc. all got old and got cut or retired, and the team needed to transition to a new defensive core. It looked like they had pieces in Hightower, Jones, Collins, McCourty, etc. But now we're back to rebuilding the D again. Jones, Collins, and Easley are gone. Hightower, Sheard, Ryan, Butler, Harmon, Long, Mingo, Branch aren't under contract next year. Ninkovich is old, and McCourty and Chung are getting there. Are they going to built a great defense for 2017-2018 around Malcom Brown and Elandon Roberts? How does this unit get better?

 

[dcmissle]

Future gets better via draft picks and UFAs, right? They'll likely be modest in FA, and we all know what usually is found in that bin -- these guys are known throughout the League; you're not likely snookering the League.

Disgruntled vet with upside via trade? Maybe, but you can't count on it.

For this season, I'm hoping the D can go on Colts' 2006 sort of run to the big game. Unlike the Colts, we won't likely find the Bears there. We'll likely find Dallas or Seattle.

But first things first, the run.

 

[joe dokes]

He's only 29, and until this year had never missed a game. The Saints had voted him as a captain. Seems like a good locker room guy.

A midwestern Junior Seau.

 

[Super Nomario]

Future gets better via draft picks and UFAs, right? They'll likely be modest in FA, and we all know what usually is found in that bin -- these guys are known throughout the League; you're not likely snookering the League.

Disgruntled vet with upside via trade? Maybe, but you can't count on it.

Yeah, sure, but there are like 15 teams with crappy-to-meh defenses who are following this same plan and it's only going to work out for a couple. And the Pats are likely to be picking pretty late. I'm not that sanguine about trying to find a cornerstone defensive player at 32 or 30 or 28 or whatever.

For this season, I'm hoping the D can go on Colts' 2006 sort of run to the big game. Unlike the Colts, we won't likely find the Bears there. We'll likely find Dallas or Seattle.

The fluky thing with that Colts team wasn't the good run in the playoffs - it was the terrible regular-season run D, which allowed 5.3 YPC. The pass D was OK (13th at 5.8 yards per attempt). Bob Sanders (who missed all but four games) was a big part of the regular season struggles / playoff resurgence, but I imagine there had to be more. The Colts finished 2nd in scoring defense in 2005 and first in 2007, and they played to that caliber in the 2006 playoffs after not really doing so all season.

 

[cgrove13]

I read an article last week that suggests otherwise, let me find you the link, I cant find it right now quickly by googling. If anyone else read the same article they can chime in, might have even been posted in the thread on here. Basically Browns fans from 1994 who had written the coach and received handwritten notes back that, in part, said that he responded to every piece of correspondence that reaches his desk. Given the nature of what was responded to in the article, the man likes to write notes and use exclamation points. Is 100 a week exaggeration for effect, I don't know, probably, but I don't think the note to Trump was particularly out of the ordinary for BB/

"The Belichick Letters" by Mark Sessler at NFL.com http://www.nfl.com/BELICHICKLETTERS

I don't know that the article makes it ok to write a letter to Trump, but it's a great Belichick story. The author also talks about the story on the October 4 Around the NFL podcast.

 

[ifmanis5]

What is going on here? Now Sheard is getting a message by getting left home.
The coaches are clearly trying to re-establish their power through hard line tactics. Has it really gotten so bad that they've managed to either lose or alienate three of their more valuable players (Jones, Collins, Sheard) in the last year? Chances are low we ever get the real story other than the company line of 'we did what we felt was the best for the team' type of explanation.

 

[dcmissle]

Have no idea, and unless this season is being covered in Football Life fashion, I don't know we'll ever know. (I do recall one season covered that way, with BB expressing disgust on camera with the wide receivers).

I do know Sheard played 16 snaps vs Seattle.

All we need is League average from the D. This is frustrating. There is definitely smoke.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Have no idea, and unless this season is being covered in Football Life fashion, I don't know we'll ever know. (I do recall one season covered that way, with BB expressing disgust on camera with the wide receivers).

I think you're thinking of the 2009 season and the game against New Orleans. He was on the sideline next to Brady and said to him "I just can't get this team to play the way I want it to." And it was about the defense. The wide receiver talk was earlier in the coaches meeting when he expressed that Welker was the key, since they could just double Moss and they had no other options. Then Welker blew his knee out and he was exactly right.

 

[Stitch01]

He was disgusted with the WR on that show too. There's a scene after the Denver game I think where he talks about how all the WR just go in and don't take extra reps and he sarcastically says they don't need practice.

I don't know that the coaches are sending a message or taking hard line tactics or whatever. They clearly aren't happy with the play on defense and the name on the jersey won't save playing time if you don't play well.

I think after the season its time for a broader look at the defensive philosophy. Hard to say the last defensive rebuild failed given the teams success, but it seems to have come up short of its potential and we are a decade past the last real top five defense. They'll have roster spots and cap room to work with.

 

[dcmissle]

That's how I remember it too.

With the roster spots, I fully expect a trade down in the first round to add picks unless THE guy falls to them at 28 to 32, where I expect they will be picking.

This time I'll applaud the move rather than behave like an adolescent whining about XMass taking too long to arrive.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Yeah, you guys are right, I forgot about that. I honestly had just been in the car a few minutes before and they were talking about the scene with BB with Brady. Forgot about the crack about he receivers not thinking they needed reps. Mea culpa.

 

[Super Nomario]

I think after the season its time for a broader look at the defensive philosophy. Hard to say the last defensive rebuild failed given the teams success, but it seems to have come up short of its potential and we are a decade past the last real top five defense. They'll have roster spots and cap room to work with.

"Failed" is probably strong, but "disappointment" is fair, given how much of their draft capital they've used on defense. In the last nine drafts, they've used the top picks on a defender eight times (and that year they used pick 33 on a defender), and four times they've used at least their top three picks on defense. Twelve of 14 top-50 picks have been on defense since 2007, with the only exceptions Solder and Gronkowski.

Philosophy is an interesting question. They're a very different defense than they were early in the 2000's, with a ton more single-high, man-to-man coverage. They blitzed more last year it seemed, and did a lot of A-gap sugaring and stuff that used blitz concepts even if they didn't send extra guys, but I've seen less of that this season. Bend-but-don't-break might be a more difficult philosophy in an NFL that is at a historic low in terms of interception rate and sack rate, but on the other hand maybe you shore up the run defense a little and you force a bunch more 3rd-and-7s without relying on turnovers and negative plays.

That's how I remember it too.

With the roster spots, I fully expect a trade down in the first round to add picks unless THE guy falls to them at 28 to 32, where I expect they will be picking.

This time I'll applaud the move rather than behave like an adolescent whining about XMass taking too long to arrive.

Who should they target? IMO pass rush is the team's biggest problem, but edge rushers are generally slim pickings that late and they almost never use high picks on them (Chandler Jones is the only top-50 pick on a pure edge guy in BB's tenure). I could see cornerback, though that's also a position they've generally waited on. Safety would make sense with McCourty and Chung getting older, Harmon a FA, and Richards showing little. LB maybe; there are a lot of balls in the air there. An heir apparent to Alan Branch would make a lot of sense, helping the run D and pass D all at once, potentially. I guess they could really add just about anywhere, which speaks to what bad shape the D is in right now.

 

[eustis22]

getting third-and-7s is a nice achievement unless, of course, you can't stop 3rd-and-seven...then what's the point?

 

[MarcSullivaFan]

Just heard on 98.5 that Sheard was left home for "performance reasons." Not encouraging.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Let's see what Kiki can do finally

 

[tims4wins]

So the Pats D was not very good against Seattle. They were pretty bad. We can all agree on this.

That being said, it was very interesting to see how the Philly D fared yesterday. The Philly D is currently 4th in points, 8th in yards per game, 9th in passing yards per game, 19th in rushing yards per game, 7th in passer rating against, #1 in defensive DVOA (prior to yesterday), #1 in pass DVOA, #11 in rush DVOA. So maybe not the top defense in the league, but definitely top 10, maybe top 5.

Seattle put up 439 yards against that defense, and scored 26 points (including a missed PAT and a missed FG). They ran 30 times for 152 yards and had 32 passing attempts for 287 yards (9.0 YPA). Against the Pats they had 420 yards, only averaged 3.7 YPA on the ground, and had 37 passing attempts for 324 yards (9.4 YPA).

I don't really have a point other than we would all probably trade our D straight up for Philly's D, but they didn't do any better.

 

[Super Nomario]

So the Pats D was not very good against Seattle. They were pretty bad. We can all agree on this.

That being said, it was very interesting to see how the Philly D fared yesterday. The Philly D is currently 4th in points, 8th in yards per game, 9th in passing yards per game, 19th in rushing yards per game, 7th in passer rating against, #1 in defensive DVOA (prior to yesterday), #1 in pass DVOA, #11 in rush DVOA. So maybe not the top defense in the league, but definitely top 10, maybe top 5.

Seattle put up 439 yards against that defense, and scored 26 points (including a missed PAT and a missed FG). They ran 30 times for 152 yards and had 32 passing attempts for 287 yards (9.0 YPA). Against the Pats they had 420 yards, only averaged 3.7 YPA on the ground, and had 37 passing attempts for 324 yards (9.4 YPA).

I don't really have a point other than we would all probably trade our D straight up for Philly's D, but they didn't do any better.

Superficially the numbers look similar, but Seattle had a lot more drives yesterday - 14 (12 discounting two end-of-half drives) vs only 10 against the Patriots (9 minus kneeldowns). The Seahawks punted six times yesterday but only twice against the Pats. Philly fared a lot better defensively.

 

[j44thor]

Akiem Hicks sure would be looking good on this D right now.
What is the delta between what he signed for and what the corpse of Chris Long got from NE? Between Long and Pot Roast, it was not a good FA class for NE on defense.

 

[kenneycb]

Akiem Hicks sure would be looking good on this D right now.
What is the delta between what he signed for and what the corpse of Chris Long got from NE? Between Long and Pot Roast, it was not a good FA class for NE on defense.

1 year, $2 million vs. 2 years, $10 million.

 

[Super Nomario]

Some substitution patterns courtesy of Doug Kyed:
"The Patriots' most frequent D vs. the pass Sunday: Nink, Long, Flowers, Hightower, Van Noy, Butler, Rowe, Ryan, Harmon, Chung, McCourty."
"The Patriots went very small for 7 snaps yesterday: Long, Flowers, Hightower, Mingo, Van Noy, Butler, Rowe, Ryan, Harmon, Chung, McCourty"

 

[Tony C]

In addition to Collins and Jones, Dominique Easley is starting to assert himself for the Rams' DL -- 2 sacks against the Fins. Was damn exciting to see how athletic the Pats finally were getting on defense. And depressing to see them now....not.

 

[j44thor]

Seems like NE is caught between having ineffective players that "Do Your Job" just not particularly well and athletic players that choose not to do the job.

It used to be that they could coach up C+/B- players to B/B+. I can't think of one player that would apply to this year and we have seen significant regression from Sheard, Collins pre-trade, Logan Ryan, etc.

 

[Super Nomario]

I was as down on the Pats D as anyone early in the year, but it has been a different animal since the Seattle debacle. They have forced 20 three-and-outs since - second in the league, and 8 more drives where they forced a turnover or safety in the first three plays. No team has had more than their 28 quick stops in that time. They've faced lousy offenses, but they weren't stopping lousy offenses early in the season.

Moreover, many of the top defenses - Denver, Baltimore, Minnesota, Philadelphia, Arizona - are going to miss the playoffs. How many playoff teams left would you take their D over the Pats? Seattle, maybe the Giants, maybe the Texans?

 

[nothumb]

I'd probably take the KC defense over ours too, if Houston can get healthy.

 

[Super Nomario]

I'd probably take the KC defense over ours too, if Houston can get healthy.

They have some big names but they're very turnover-dependent.

 

[nothumb]

They have some big names but they're very turnover-dependent.

Yeah, and of course it's very matchup dependent, but in a playoff environment, fierce pass rush & turnovers are often a huge factor. It's a high variance strategy, but they have the potential to catch fire and dominate on D, maybe moreso than anyone but NYG at this point with Thomas out for Seattle.

 

[BaseballJones]

Defense the last 7 weeks. Bad opponents and all, but nonetheless, here's the numbers.

at SF: 17 points, 299 yards, 0 turnovers
at NYJ: 17 points, 333 yards, 2 turnovers
vs LA: 10 points, 162 yards, 2 turnovers
vs Bal: 23 points (really not the D's fault), 348 yards, 1 turnover
at Den: 3 points, 309 yards, 3 turnovers
vs NYJ: 3 points, 239 yards, 4 turnovers
at Mia: 14 points, 280 yards, 2 turnovers

Average: 12.4 points, 281.4 yards, 2 turnovers

I don't care who you're playing. In today's NFL, those numbers are phenomenal. For what it's worth, those teams this year have averaged 18.9 points a game, so the Patriots have held them to about a touchdown under their combined season average. And they've averaged 318.9 yards per game, so they've held them to nearly 40 yards less than their combined averages.

In other words, even taking their opponents into consideration, this defense has simply been playing great football the last 7 games.

 

[Marciano490]

I wonder if we'll look back at the Seattle game the way we did the KC game last Super Bowl year.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

I don't think against a neutral schedule they are a legit top 5 defense, they certainly beneftited from the offense scoring so much that it made other teams one-dimensional for long stretches, and their special teams didn't give up points. However, in the spirit of 'we're exactly as good as our record says we are' the fact is they allowed 34 points less than any other team in football and that is damn impressive especially considering where this defense was mid-year. That 34 points which separated them from the number two scoring defense is the same as what separate the number two scoring defense from the number 7 scoring defense.

Certainly, controlling field position and game situation are keys. It felt like they were a lot more 'multiple' in their fronts and where they were bringing pressure during second half, resulting in more consistent pressure. And they continued to stop the long play. While it's hard to be sure without all-22, my sense is they stuck to the defensive plan very well post-Collins as well.

SN, what do you make of the key changes along the way?

 

[Super Nomario]

SN, what do you make of the key changes along the way?

I don't think it was one thing, but to me the biggest issue early in the season was the lack of pass rush, and the biggest factor improving that was the emergence of Trey Flowers. Every week it seemed like there were two or three plays, often on third down, that he just destroyed immediately by beating an interior lineman quickly and getting in the backfield, even if he didn't end up tallying a sack.

The other significant difference is replacing Justin Coleman with Eric Rowe, which effectively upgraded two positions by shifting Logan Ryan mostly to the slot. Coleman played only four snaps all season after the Seattle game (all yesterday). I don't think Rowe is a star, but teams picked on Coleman and Ryan early in the year and they haven't been able to pick on Rowe and Ryan down the stretch.

The linebacker shuffling will probably get more ink, but McClellin, Van Noy, and Roberts have all been pretty up-and-down.

 

[Old Fart Tree]

I look around and think of Atlanta, Pittsburgh, and maybe KC as the offenses left that would scare me. Maybe NYG and DET/GB in the second tier. The rest? If they lose it won't be because their defense gets gashed.

And they can only play two of those six teams.

 

[Super Nomario]

I look around and think of Atlanta, Pittsburgh, and maybe KC as the offenses left that would scare me. Maybe NYG and DET/GB in the second tier. The rest? If they lose it won't be because their defense gets gashed.

And they can only play two of those six teams.

Seattle gashed them last time they played, and for that matter the other two times Wilson has faced them. They are so Jekyll-and-Hyde but I think they're a bad matchup for the Patriots defense. Maybe Miami if Tannehill is back?

 

[RedOctober3829]

I look around and think of Atlanta, Pittsburgh, and maybe KC as the offenses left that would scare me. Maybe NYG and DET/GB in the second tier. The rest? If they lose it won't be because their defense gets gashed.

And they can only play two of those six teams.

The Giants offense does not scare me in the least and shouldn't scare anyone else either. They rank 26th in the league in PPG.

 

[Old Fart Tree]

Probably right; ODB is an issue, but that's about their only weapon. Seattle is probably more worrisome; is Wilson finally healthy?

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

I don't think it was one thing, but to me the biggest issue early in the season was the lack of pass rush, and the biggest factor improving that was the emergence of Trey Flowers. Every week it seemed like there were two or three plays, often on third down, that he just destroyed immediately by beating an interior lineman quickly and getting in the backfield, even if he didn't end up tallying a sack.

The other significant difference is replacing Justin Coleman with Eric Rowe, which effectively upgraded two positions by shifting Logan Ryan mostly to the slot. Coleman played only four snaps all season after the Seattle game (all yesterday). I don't think Rowe is a star, but teams picked on Coleman and Ryan early in the year and they haven't been able to pick on Rowe and Ryan down the stretch.

The linebacker shuffling will probably get more ink, but McClellin, Van Noy, and Roberts have all been pretty up-and-down.

I agree on both these points. Flowers has been such a key player for this defense.

Its an optimistic comparison but there are a lot of similarities between him and Michael Bennett - tweener DE/DT guys who don't have a lot of traditional edge rusher athleticism and bend (and therefore who weren't liked much by scouts coming out of school) but who have the combination of technique, strength, and short area quickness to be serviceable two way players on the outside and to give interior linemen absolute fits when kicked inside on passing downs.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

I look around and think of Atlanta, Pittsburgh, and maybe KC as the offenses left that would scare me. Maybe NYG and DET/GB in the second tier. The rest? If they lose it won't be because their defense gets gashed.

And they can only play two of those six teams.

Dallas? They scare me.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Dallas? They scare me.

If GB beats the Giants, can the Dallas D stop Rodgers?

 

[E5 Yaz]

If GB beats the Giants, can the Dallas D stop Rodgers?

I think that's the matchup everyone outside of NYG fandom wants to see. Unless, of course, the Lions pull the upset and ruin it

 

[Old Fart Tree]

Dallas? They scare me.

D'oh, I completely brainfarted on Dallas. Yes, that O line scares me, although I think Prescott may get exposed in the playoffs.

 

[Silverdude2167]

I look around and think of Atlanta, Pittsburgh, and maybe KC as the offenses left that would scare me. Maybe NYG and DET/GB in the second tier. The rest? If they lose it won't be because their defense gets gashed.

And they can only play two of those six teams.

KC's offense is not very good. Everyone is in love with Hill. But they are averaging 20.5 points a game scored by the O.
If we take out the last two games of the year against a Broncos team that gave up and the 29th ranked D in SD that drops to 18.9 points a game over the first 14 weeks.

Take Hill out of the game, and they are in trouble. Focus on Hill and Kelce and they are going nowhere fast.

Edit: Basically, if you do not turn the ball over and kick away from Hill you need to score 3 TD's to win. This is a team that should not scare you if you play your game.