The Altogether Appropriate NFL Draft Thread

Phragle

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SeoulSoxFan said:
 
I've seen Seferian-Jenkins as low as a mid-2nd round pick. I don't think Ebron would be enticing enough to spend a 1st round pick (OL / DL pick is much more needed), but somehow snagging SJ would be great. 
 
A lot of people think Ebron is the best in this years class.  I haven't studied any of these guys but I love the way Ebron moves.  It's like a horse.  He reminds me of Shannon Sharpe.
 
RedOctober3829 said:
Terrible news for Aaron Murray's pre-draft future. Torn ACL.

@Mark_Schlabach: Terrible news for #UGA QB Aaron Murray: torn ACL in left knee
 
That's too bad, but I think QBs are affected the least by season ending injuries.  
 
SMU_Sox said:
Murray even with a torn ACL is still a top 2 rounds guy, isn't he? If I'm Tennessee, St. Louis, Arizona, etc. I grab Murray in the teens. Arizona makes the most sense to me as you can groom him for a year with Ponder as the QB and then transition him.
 
Ponder is useless enough for Minnesota  Never mind Arizona.
 

SMU_Sox

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Ok but they might have a shot at someone else. Plus they might want that guy to start right away.
 

axx

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mascho said:
 
Might be great news, however, for the team that gets to draft him in the fifth round.  They'll be getting a franchise QB IMO.
 
Hmm, I was thinking about the Pats taking a QB (and was looking into McCarron but I wonder if he will go too high to be tempting) but Murray falls that far it'd be an option.
 

PaulinMyrBch

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phragle said:
It may not be the biggest need but I'd love to replace Hernandez with Amaro/Ebron/Seferian-Jenkins.  
 
Maybe my favorite player for the Pats - Louis Nix III - underwent surgery on a torn meniscus and is done for the year.  I'm not happy about it, but this is probably the closest he's been to a realistic target since last year.
 
Does anyone know where I can sortable stats by position?  Like receiving yards by tight ends?
Here is the Ncaa stats link.  Can't sort the WR's from the TE's, but you could copy and paste to excel and then use data sort.
 
The link takes you to the main page, you have to make some selections to get to the Receiving yards stats for FBS.  Once you get there the detail is pretty good. 
 

rodderick

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phragle said:
 
A lot of people think Ebron is the best in this years class.  I haven't studied any of these guys but I love the way Ebron moves.  It's like a horse.  He reminds me of Shannon Sharpe.
 
 
That's too bad, but I think QBs are affected the least by season ending injuries.  
 
 
Ponder is useless enough for Minnesota  Never mind Arizona.
Fuck, now I really want to see Ponder in a Bruce Arians offense. It'd be hilarious.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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mascho said:
Kiper on "Mike and Mike" just said that Murray's knee injury probably pushed him from a "Round 3-4 guy" to a "Round 4-5 guy."
If he lasts that far, I wouldn't mind the Pats drafting Murray and just sticking him on IR next year in Malletts last season.
 

mascho

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Morgan's Magic Snowplow wrote:
If he lasts that far, I wouldn't mind the Pats drafting Murray and just sticking him on IR next year in Malletts last season.
That is exactly where I am. Kiper also said McCarron is a second round guy, so my dream of him falling to the fourth or so seems to be fading.

I really like Murray, so drafting him in the fourth and giving him a "redshirt year" makes a ton of sense to me.
 

SMU_Sox

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McCarron is intriguing but he's played behind a stacked and robust O-Line, has had a great defense, and his arm strength is average at best. If he doesn't play at Bama do people still love him? I've been lukewarm on him. He's certainly worthy of being drafted. But there is talk now about him being a top 10 pick. Seems a bit high.
 

mascho

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There are two things I like about drafting McCarron.  One specific to him, one specific to his conference.
 
1.  His progression/growth.  Alabama went from a team that won with him, to a team that won because of him, during his time under center.  When he first won the job they protected him.  Lots of run, simplified route trees, etc.  Look at what they did with him this season.  I posted in the game thread last week how much they trusted him, because in the third quarter on their own 2, in a tie game, they threw on 3rd and 9.  I think 95% of football teams in the country, at any level (high school through NFL) probably run a draw there, punt and play defense.  He's grown as a QB, has played in a ton of huge games, and I think he is going to be a very good NFL QB.  
 
2.  The level of competition.  You always hear rookies say that "it is so much faster in the NFL."  Playing all those SEC games is probably as good a learning experience for any player, especially a QB, that you can get for playing in the NFL.  That's also why I think Murray is worth a long look.  Lots of experience in the SEC.  
 
Murray's also grown a ton as a QB.  I thought about starting a "Murray v. McCarron" thread when the season started because I really, really like both of these guys.  Manziel might grab headlines, Bridgewater might be the consensus #1 QB, but I really think that Murray and McCarron will both be good to great NFL QBs.  
 

Zososoxfan

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mascho said:
There are two things I like about drafting McCarron.  One specific to him, one specific to his conference.
 
1.  His progression/growth.  Alabama went from a team that won with him, to a team that won because of him, during his time under center.  When he first won the job they protected him.  Lots of run, simplified route trees, etc.  Look at what they did with him this season.  I posted in the game thread last week how much they trusted him, because in the third quarter on their own 2, in a tie game, they threw on 3rd and 9.  I think 95% of football teams in the country, at any level (high school through NFL) probably run a draw there, punt and play defense.  He's grown as a QB, has played in a ton of huge games, and I think he is going to be a very good NFL QB.  
 
2.  The level of competition.  You always hear rookies say that "it is so much faster in the NFL."  Playing all those SEC games is probably as good a learning experience for any player, especially a QB, that you can get for playing in the NFL.  That's also why I think Murray is worth a long look.  Lots of experience in the SEC.  
 
Murray's also grown a ton as a QB.  I thought about starting a "Murray v. McCarron" thread when the season started because I really, really like both of these guys.  Manziel might grab headlines, Bridgewater might be the consensus #1 QB, but I really think that Murray and McCarron will both be good to great NFL QBs.  
 
Minor quibble here, but while I used to agree that playing in the SEC made a player more NFL-ready, I now just don't think that's true. The reality is that the NFL as a whole is just on a whole other level of competition. In other words, while the SEC has the most players in the pros by conference, it's still >20% of the league total. I used the data from http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1641528-where-does-nfl-talent-come-from (go about 2/3 the way down). All that being said, I'm high on AJ too and think he shouldn't last past the 3rd round. 
 

SeoulSoxFan

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Let's look at some TE candidates for the Pats, obviously with Hernandez in jail and Gronk to miss another full year most likely.
 
Thankfully, there are a number of good candidates, Texas Tech's Amaro and UNC's Ebron may be off the board, but Austin Seferian-Jenkins is also there.
 
My pick would be C.J. Fiedorowicz, a mini Gronk who can block and catch at 6-6, 265. Candidate at 3rd-4th round, but wouldn't mind getting him as a late 2nd rounder:
 
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1N65H9w-XM[/youtube]
 

SeoulSoxFan

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( . ) ( . ) and (_!_) said:
A new TE won't matter if the OL doesn't get stiffer up the middle. Draft needs to start there.
 
With Vollmer back, a top pick on an OL is not the highest priority. DL first, re-sign Kelly, then TE, then OL depth. 
 

( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)

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SeoulSoxFan said:
With Vollmer back, a top pick on an OL is not the highest priority. DL first, re-sign Kelly, then TE, then OL depth.
I disagree.

Mankins looks old, Wendell and Connolly are jags. I don't think the tackles are the problem. They need a talent infusion in the middle of that line.
 

jsinger121

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I disagree.

Mankins looks old, Wendell and Connolly are jags. I don't think the tackles are the problem. They need a talent infusion in the middle of that line.
 
 
I agree with this, The middle of the Pats line stinks and that's happens when one guy is washed up and the two are guys are jags. They need some talent up front on both sides of the ball. That is a must.
 

Byrdbrain

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Centers and Gaurds typically aren't taken in the first round unless they are pretty special. I won't pretend to know enough about who could be there for the pick but, generically speaking, I would rather see interior DL early then interior OL later on.
 

PaulinMyrBch

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Solder wasn't a regular until year 2, but mainly because of Light. We need quality depth and competition at those slots, so I'm fine with OL early.
 

Super Nomario

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PaulinMyrBch said:
Solder wasn't a regular until year 2, but mainly because of Light. We need quality depth and competition at those slots, so I'm fine with OL early.
OT is pretty set, though, with Solder young and Vollmer just signed to a pretty good extension (and a decent young third guy in Cannon). G/C is where they need help, and you can usually get those later. Per NFLDraftScout (C and G) only one interior guy is projected in the first, with a couple more fringe guys. I'm not averse if they love Yancey or something in the first, but it seems like it would make more sense to top TE or DT early and go interior line in the third or fourth round.
 
A couple random thoughts: 1) they liked Chris Barker enough to keep him all year even though he's been a healthy scratch most weeks. They also have Josh Kline in the fold, and a couple more guys (Braxston Cave, R.J. Dill) on the practice squad. They may feel like one of these young guys is the answer long-term. 2) The Pats tend to like interior guys a little smaller than some other teams. Wendell is 6'2", 300 lbs; Koppen was the same, Connolly is 6'4" 305. So they might not like some of the top players available as much as some other teams. On the other hand, if they like someone and he's their ideal size, they may jump because they're a little picky.
 

PaulinMyrBch

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I wasn't specific enough. I'd be fine with TE/DT/OG as the first three picks with line help in the 2-3 range.  Early doesn't mean first.  But I'd like to see a quality guy and I hope they don't wait and grab a filler guy late.
 

SMU_Sox

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Pass on Ego Ferguson.

I'd be all over Hageman. Hageman is a perfect fit next to Wilfork and gives us another season to find a big man. Hell we could take a guy like Daniel McCullers in the 3rd or 4th round and a guard in the 2nd. McCullers is the largest nose tackle prospect in the draft. I have a few concerns with him and his weight even though he supposedly lost some and is in much better playing shape this year.But let me get back to Hageman
He is an absolute monster. He's solid against the run and can explode through the pocket. If Wilfork soaks up a double team it scares me to think what Jones Nink and Hageman would do rushing the passer. He's tall too at 6 feet 6 inches and could stick his wingspan into passing lanes. The knock on him is he is inconsistent. I wonder if part of that is frustration on his part because he has been double teamed quite a bit and doesn't play as hard after a while. Really high ceiling. Has the potential to be a complete player and 3 down guy.

Potential 3-4 DE's or 4-3 DTs I like in no particular order but excluding guys like JD Clowney and Nix who I don't will fall to us:
Ra'shede Hageman
Stephon Tuitt
Ray Drew (lots of options depending on what weight and position you want to play him at. Not just a DT prospect.)
Taylor Hart and Ed Stinson... both are guys with buy low opportunity. That's also true for Dominique Easley but he tore an ACL and would need to put on 15 to 20 pounds.
Anthony Johnson has a huge ceiling.

There are a few other guys I am omitting who are thought of as top 3 round guys. For example Will Sutton, Daquan Jones, Timmy Jernigan, Kelcy Quarles, and to a lesser degree guys who can eat up space like DeAndre Coleman, and Beau Allen (last 3 more like 3rd to 6th round picks). I haven't done my homework on them but am curious about Jernigan and Coleman. We'll see Jernigan in the BCS championship game against a stacked Auburn OLine. It will be, imho, his best test this year against the run and if he can stand up against bigger and stronger interior linemem than most ACC schools.
 

SMU_Sox

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Double post. Summary: lots of good DT and some NT prospects going into the draft. Pats should be able to snag at least one of them. If Nix somehow falls to them or Hageman is available I'd pull the trigger.
 

lambeau

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With the TE need even greater, S-J still seems to make the most sense, although Fiedorowicz should be there 2nd Rd if they decide to grab Hageman.

The DT draft depth is greater than TE, and as noted Jernigan, Johnson, and Daquan Jones should be available in the second round.

In the unlikely event they wanted to go OL in the first, Travis Swanson 6'5" 320 is probably the stud to target.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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doctormoist said:
Any good tight ends coming out?
 
Plenty. At least 3-4 in the first 3 rounds that are of #1 caliber. I really like Fiedorowicz, as mentioned upthread -- can block and receive, but some mocks have Ebron falling to Pats near end of round 1. 
 
So, Ebron, S-J, Fiedorowicz, Jace Amaro, Marcel Jenson, etc. 
 

lambeau

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Most draft mavens have Amaro and Ebron being taken by the Packers and Chiefs in the first round--hopefully before the Patriots pick.
 

SMU_Sox

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Yeah well let's see what haoorns between now and then. It's way too early to care that much about mock drafts unless it is top 5 or 10.
 

Phragle

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SMU_Sox said:
Pass on Ego Ferguson.

I'd be all over Hageman. Hageman is a perfect fit next to Wilfork and gives us another season to find a big man. Hell we could take a guy like Daniel McCullers in the 3rd or 4th round and a guard in the 2nd. McCullers is the largest nose tackle prospect in the draft. I have a few concerns with him and his weight even though he supposedly lost some and is in much better playing shape this year.But let me get back to Hageman
He is an absolute monster. He's solid against the run and can explode through the pocket. If Wilfork soaks up a double team it scares me to think what Jones Nink and Hageman would do rushing the passer. He's tall too at 6 feet 6 inches and could stick his wingspan into passing lanes. The knock on him is he is inconsistent. I wonder if part of that is frustration on his part because he has been double teamed quite a bit and doesn't play as hard after a while. Really high ceiling. Has the potential to be a complete player and 3 down guy.

Potential 3-4 DE's or 4-3 DTs I like in no particular order but excluding guys like JD Clowney and Nix who I don't will fall to us:
Ra'shede Hageman
Stephon Tuitt
Ray Drew (lots of options depending on what weight and position you want to play him at. Not just a DT prospect.)
Taylor Hart and Ed Stinson... both are guys with buy low opportunity. That's also true for Dominique Easley but he tore an ACL and would need to put on 15 to 20 pounds.
Anthony Johnson has a huge ceiling.

There are a few other guys I am omitting who are thought of as top 3 round guys. For example Will Sutton, Daquan Jones, Timmy Jernigan, Kelcy Quarles, and to a lesser degree guys who can eat up space like DeAndre Coleman, and Beau Allen (last 3 more like 3rd to 6th round picks). I haven't done my homework on them but am curious about Jernigan and Coleman. We'll see Jernigan in the BCS championship game against a stacked Auburn OLine. It will be, imho, his best test this year against the run and if he can stand up against bigger and stronger interior linemem than most ACC schools.
 
Good post. I have't seen him play this season but I'm worried that Hageman is kind of a boom/bust kind of prospect. His age and rawness last year. He was a 3rd or 4th round kind of player last year before he decided to go back to school. 
 
SeoulSoxFan said:
Plenty. At least 3-4 in the first 3 rounds that are of #1 caliber. I really like Fiedorowicz, as mentioned upthread -- can block and receive, but some mocks have Ebron falling to Pats near end of round 1. 
 
So, Ebron, S-J, Fiedorowicz, Jace Amaro, Marcel Jenson, etc. 
 
I like the speedy h-back types a lot more than the inline types. I'd still take a look at Lyerla.
 

SpacemanzGerbil

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I still like Hageman but you just have to downgrade him after an extremely lackluster season. Still, if the Pats wind up with Hageman and McCullers next April, welcome back 3-4.
 

SMU_Sox

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Look at Asa Watson if you like speedy h-back types because he might be a 5th round plus guy.
 

SMU_Sox

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I still like Hageman but you just have to downgrade him after an extremely lackluster season. Still, if the Pats wind up with Hageman and McCullers next April, welcome back 3-4.


See but I think Hageman is going to kill it at the combine and that his struggles will get explained away as being consistently double teamed.

The two DTs from VTech interest me a lot too. If BB wants he can grab a talented DT at the end of the first round or 2nd round whether it be a pass rusher type or an nt.

Agree to disagree on Hageman season this year. I thought it was mildly disappointing but not JD Clowney level of disappointment.
 

RedOctober3829

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@JohnMiddlekauff: Multiple sources tell me Teddy Bridgewater has contemplated returning to school. No decision has been made at this point

Why would he want to go back to school? Look at Matt Barkley for an example of someone making a bad decision to go back. Unless you want to win a Heisman or win a championship, there's no motivation for Bridgewater.
 

axx

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He might be hearing whispers. With 5 QBs possibly going in the first round, it's possible he could fall to the middle or end of the first round.
 

SMU_Sox

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That's insane. Teddy is a top 10 pick. MM is going back to Oregon. Teddy is at the worst the 3rd QB taken which means 1st round pick. I highly doubt he gets taken higher next year.
 

SMU_Sox

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Our areas of need:
 
Offense: In order of what we need
1) TE
2) Center
3) Guard
4) Tackle Depth
5) RB
6) WR
7) Backup QB
 
Defense:
1) DT or NT
2) CB
3) Safety
4) WILL LB. Basically another LB who can do well in pass coverage
5) DE Depth with pass rushing upside
6) LB Depth
 
If we are going to burn a 1st rounder on anyone I'd want the pick to be on 3 down DT, 3 down NT, CB or Safety, TE, or Center or Guard. If we trade this years 1st for next years + picks I'd like to make sure we address both sides of the line later on in the draft. Get DT's, G's, and a C.
 

SpacemanzGerbil

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SMU_Sox said:
Our areas of need:
 
Offense: In order of what we need
1) TE
2) Center
3) Guard
4) Tackle Depth
5) RB
6) WR
7) Backup QB
 
Defense:
1) DT or NT
2) CB
3) Safety
4) WILL LB. Basically another LB who can do well in pass coverage
5) DE Depth with pass rushing upside
6) LB Depth
 
If we are going to burn a 1st rounder on anyone I'd want the pick to be on 3 down DT, 3 down NT, CB or Safety, TE, or Center or Guard. If we trade this years 1st for next years + picks I'd like to make sure we address both sides of the line later on in the draft. Get DT's, G's, and a C.
Outside of TE, I'd say these have been glaring needs for this team for going on three seasons. They've relied on Wilfork being healthy forever, with no one to back him up or JAGs to play beside him. Outside of the Brian Waters season, right guard has been a revolving shitshow. They've known Volmer is injury prone since they drafted him. The Patriots well documented problems keeping defensive backs healthy has been beaten to death for a decade.
 
The new horror for next year's draft should be finding Mayo's replacement. He just suffered a major injury and there's no telling if he will be the same once he's back.
 

SMU_Sox

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I would be in favor of trading out of the 1st this year if we get a 1st next year and a 2nd or 3rd this year. Why? Because I think we need a lot of people and depth this year in positions that are not traditionally 1st round picks (aside from DT and TE). 
 
There's a WR I really like who I think would be a great fit for the Pats. Jared Abbrederis from Wisconsin. He's fast but not a freak. His best skill is his route running. Walter football and most other draft sites have him as a round 2-3 guy but more likely round 3. He owned Roby from OSU. He's also playing with abysmal QB play and yet he still consistently makes plays. He's a very cerebral guy. I really think he would be a great fit on the team as a guy who can get separation, make adjustments to the defense and move the chains. He's not a burner or deep threat but he is a complete WR. 
 
If we picked up a DT or NT, Center, TE and Abbrederis we'll have quite a lot of options for what to do next year. Now maybe we have too many WR's and would be better off spending a pick on a guard or DB instead.
 

SMU_Sox

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If we're talking guys who could play either WILL or MIKE then my top choice is C.J. Mosley is 6'2'', 234. He's the best pass coverage LB in this year's draft. He's small for a BB LB but I think we've seen enough of large can't-cover-shit LB's.
 
AJ Johnson is another option. He has the same types of skills. Both guys are probably 1st to 3rd round draft picks. C.J. comes from Bama so he might get taken higher due to the prominence of his program. AJ Johnson comes from TEN which is another high profile program but has fallen on hard times. I've seen both of these guys and I love Mosley's speed. Mosley has had success against the run, pass, and with blitzing. If you want a 3 down LB then Mosley is your guy. I am not 100% sure of this but I am pretty sure that Johnson didn't drop into coverage nearly as much as Mosley. Perhaps a Volunteer fan can help us with this.
 
Again though I want to stress that Mosley might be undersized for BB even though his skill set would address our LB in coverage problems.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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SMU_Sox said:
I would be in favor of trading out of the 1st this year if we get a 1st next year and a 2nd or 3rd this year. Why? Because I think we need a lot of people and depth this year in positions that are not traditionally 1st round picks (aside from DT and TE).
I agree with you -- this Pats team has a ridiculous number of 1st and 2nd year starters and few starters that may be lost due to rookie contract expiring.

If a top TE isn't available a trade out would be fine with me, except that we've seen these fall back type of moves more difficult to pull off. Perhaps if there's a QB that someone really wants at the end of the first...
 

Super Nomario

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SMU_Sox said:
Defense:
2) CB
Would re-signing Talib eliminate this need in your mind? Dennard and Ryan have both been pretty good, and Arrington's locked up for a while.
 
SMU_Sox said:
 
 
4) WILL LB. Basically another LB who can do well in pass coverage
5) DE Depth with pass rushing upside
6) LB Depth
 
I guess the other question is which of these three Jamie Collins addresses.
 

SMU_Sox

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If we resign Talib? Yes. I am assuming we do not though. However, if we resign him there is no need to draft another DB when we have pressing needs.
 
As for Jamie Collins... We knew going into this year he was very raw. How good is he supposed to be in coverage? Time will tell. It can't hurt to have an athletic LB who can cover people though who isn't as raw as Collins. If Mosley was available at 28+ I have to think he's ideal. A 3 down LB would give us Hightower, Collins, Mayo, for next year and perhaps Spikes if he returns. That's a pretty good LB Core. We certainly have some depth there. But, again, we might not have LB's who are good in coverage. I don't know what Collins is going to do next year or the rest of this year. Would it be fair to say the Pats will expect a lot more from him in his 2nd year? I would imagine so. But what roles should he excel at? I'll leave that to posters like you and KFP to tell me that as I do not own the comparative advantage there.
 

The X Man Cometh

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Signing Spikes and drafting Mosley is madness.
Mayo on long term deal
Spikes on long term deal
Hightower w/ 1st rd pick
Mosley w/ 1st rd pick
Collins

That's a LOT of resources invested into what is arguably the least important level of the defense.
 

SMU_Sox

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Mosley and Spikes have some skills in common, e.g. stuffing the run and success blitzing, but Mosley typically, iirc, doesn't blitz the a gap like spikes and Mosley is almost infinitely better in coverage. Not that he'd be the best ise of resources if you havw Spikes resigned. I agree with that. But Mosley would certainly complement Spikes and you could easily use both on a team. That being said you'd have one too many starting caliber lbs and not enough playing time means a waste of resources with other neess pending. I alsoI assumed they didn't sign talib or spikes when I wrote my needs.
 

The X Man Cometh

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Dec 13, 2013
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SMU_Sox said:
Mosley and Spikes have some skills in common, e.g. stuffing the run and success blitzing, but Mosley typically, iirc, doesn't blitz the a gap like spikes and Mosley is almost infinitely better in coverage. Not that he'd be the best ise of resources if you havw Spikes resigned. I agree with that. But Mosley would certainly complement Spikes and you could easily use both on a team. That being said you'd have one too many starting caliber lbs and not enough playing time means a waste of resources with other neess pending. I alsoI assumed they didn't sign talib or spikes when I wrote my needs.
Yeah Mosely is damn good. But on principle I couldn't abide spending that much on LB.
 
You can have a CB who takes out a WR, you can have a FS who shuts down the back end, you can have a DE who tears up the passer, a DT who wins up front. You can decisively win in the front and back. But your LB will always get beat in coverage and only be as good as the guys in front of them.
 
Look at how when Patrick Willis went down last year, the 49ers didn't skip a beat. Then Justin Smith is out and everything falls apart. Linebackers aren't difference makers today relative to other positions by my estimation.
Good thread btw.
 
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
8,920
Dallas
I have no objections with your analysis about how important the lb position is now. It may be a better use of resources to draft a slightly undersized but good coverage line backing prospect in a later round. Lb depth was low on my list anyway relative to the other needs. I mentioned Mosley as a good fit for us when SN asked me. Mosley was the guy who came to mind.

I've said before I think we need to either trade our pick or grab a dt in the first. Or a special te like Ebron.