Amir couldn't play by the end of the season and Morris is a much more consistent complete player than Kelly freaking Olynyk is
The 2017-2018 Celtics Will Be a Bizarre Monstrosity
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Heh, he's comparable to Morris in overall value. Amir has a pretty huge fork in his back tho.
I agree about Olynyk but there is no way that Morris isn't better than a crippled Amir.
I think Marcus and Olynyk are close in value and can understand an argument in either direction.
However, if there is a serious NBA fan out there right now who truthfully thinks that Amir Johnson is better than Marcus Morris right now......wow. That's really not even a valid opinion at this point
Amir's ankles are toasty and Kelly has a tendency to disappear too often. Morris will add a toughness to this team that was sorely missing last season. He's exactly what the Celtics needed this season and next season.
I'm not sure but cheech13 could be the handle for a weed smoking,13yr old.
I find it refreshing that in today's age of basketball certain players can evoke such vastly different evaluations from fans. I don't feel like it was always this way. Crowder and Olynyk especially have stood out on this board in this respect. Its one reason I actually prefer basketball to baseball - it seems like the measures of quality for baseball players have gotten so sharp that the arguments are so around the edges now.
Olynyk - solid above average NBA big man or total stiff? Who knows!
Olynyk - solid above average NBA big man or total stiff? Who knows!
Having said that, here are some stats regarding Olynyk vs. Morris. Over their respective careers, Kelly Olynyk:
- Averages more points, rebounds, steals, blocks, and assists on a per minute basis
- Is a better 2 point shooter, 3 point shooter, all while taking the same number of shots, and
- Has better hair.
Amir had a higher PER and VORP last year and had more win shares in fewer minutes. He shoots better, defends better, and rebounds better. Maybe you think Morris offers more going forward because of Amir's body breaking down, and I'll buy that, but he's still a better all-around player.
One thing is sure - we won't see any more of the ultra small lineups Brad occasionally rolled out in the playoffs last year - IT, Bradley, Rozier, and Smart at the 4. I still can't believe Brad coaxed a few decent playoff minutes out of that lineup.
God I hate advanced metrics in basketball. It's not a situation like baseball where there is no context. Morris was in a shitty situation w 0 floor spacing. Amir was in an ideal situation shoot super high % shots.
And Amir's body was breaking down. Half his shots were not defended. The eye test tells that Amir is hardly even comparable to Morris at this point in their careers.
Yup this too. If you want to dig deep in the NBA I'm sure there's a metric in which Olynyk is better than Lebron.
I enjoy living in the real world where context and eye test matters.
Amir Johnson has been an advanced metrics star on pretty much every team he's ever played on. I'm sympathetic to the argument that Morris was in a bad spot which suppressed his impact (though I think this argument is wrong), but Johnson's RAPM-type metrics have been incredibly robust, across teams, teammates, roles, coaches, etc...
I like Morris too, and prefer him given age and injury, but saying Amir's performance on advanced metrics is just some bullshit result of his situation misses that Amir has been in the league for 11 years and has always graded as a stud, regardless of situation. (This is also one of the arguments for why RAPM is a good stat - it controls for changing contexts pretty well).
Amir gets underrated due to how badly his injuries limited him. At the same time, RAPM had Crowder as the 9th best player in basketball last year (playoffs included) and Amir 25th. I tend to trust the stats over my eyes, but that's a tough pill to swallow.
Amir seemed to fall of a cliff to the eye test by the end of last year.
I like Kelly more than Morris but Kelly is getting paid 2.5x as much as Morris.
I think KO is a super underrated defender. Most people think he sucks and I actually think he is pretty good at being in the right spot.
That's all well and good. I think Amir Johnson early in his career was very underrated. But we are talking about right now
Cheech said that "most serious basketball fans" would say Amir is better than Marcus Morris. I call bullshit on that. Amir is old and his body has almost completely broken down. He can barely stay on the court and he has lost pretty much all of his athleticism and jumping ability. He still has a high basketball IQ and knows where he should be on the court....but as we saw last year in the playoffs he offered effectively nothing.
Yeah - I'm not making the same argument with Crowder. Unlike Amir, he doesn't have a track record of being excellent across a variety of teams, teammates, roles, and coaches. He's been good in RAPM in pretty much one situation. Don't get me wrong, I like Crowder, but I have a lot less faith in his RAPM number than I do in Amir's.
Johnson obviously has injury issues, but his rate stats look pretty much the same now as when he was younger and healthier. He just can't do it for as many minutes (though I'll note, he played 94 games last year including the playoffs). I'm fine preferring Morris to Amir cause of health and ability to stay on the court. But I don't see much evidence of a dropoff in effectiveness from Johnson when he's on the court. 14 bad playoff games aren't enough to scare me off there.
If Amir Johnson was so good he'd be avg more than 22min 7 pts and 5 boards throughout an 11 year sample size.
Advanced stats are great for comparing two similar players. They don't turn chicken sh*t into chicken salad however.
Advanced stats are great for comparing two similar players. They don't turn chicken sh*t into chicken salad however.
Yeah, that's a valid critique of these type of stats. If a guy is playing well, keep him out there. If he is sucking, put him on the bench.
It's also a good way to know what coaches put their players in the best situations. If Amir wa splaying 35 minutes a night, his numbers would tank most likely. That's not a knock on him, it may just be more of a nice job by Flip, Casey, and Stevens
Absolutely. It's not a knock on Amir. He's actually likely the definition of a replacement level big. He gets in good position. Can rebound a little. Can convert if left alone. That's all we'll and good.
If your stat ranks him 25th in the NBA your stat is the incorrect one not me.
If Amir is a replacement level big then you don't know what replacement level means or you don't know who the bigs are in the NBA. Check out his defensive numbers some time. Especially how teams score at the rim when he's on the floor. Come back to me.
Again your using advanced stats to present a case that doesn't pass the eye test. Ok let's call him slightly above avg. does that make you feel better about your binky?
Let me guess...you're an Olynyk guy too right? Good news for the people in here who watch basketball and don't google the RAPM stats is the Celtics upgraded the 4 and 5 spot by moving on from those two stiffs.
The case for Amir (and for Olynyk) is not based solely on advanced stats. The Celtics aren't better for having lost them both.*
* Not that they should have re-signed either one of them. Amir's career as a productive NBA player may be over, and I'd rather have cleared room for Hayward than brought Kelly back.
I don't think you watched much of Marcus Morris last year. What part of your vaunted eye test did he pass so thoroughly? Was it the way he shot terribly (10% lower than KO and 16 lower than Amir)? Was it his 7.8% rebound rate? Remember how you called Olynyk a "tall 2"? Well, Olynyk almost doubled Morris's rebound rate. And before you respond with a rant about advanced stats and context, when Morris was on the floor without Drummond this year, his defensive rebound rate was still much worse than Olynyk's (13.0% to 20%).
Morris is not a good rebounder. He never has been. That you hate Olynyk and Amir doesn't make him all of the things they were not.
Celtics rebounding this season is poised to be atrocious. They are going to need rebounding from their wings, many of whom will (unlike last year) have a size advantage.
His rebound rate was 15%. Did I say he was a dominant rebounder? Please find my quote saying that.
At this point in their careers yes I'd rather have Morris than Amir Johnson. And I'd take anybody over Olynyk. Literally anybody.
The Cs rebounding issue was a combination of not great rebounders and terrible size at every position 1-4 and 1-5 when Al was the center. This year that issue should be mostly resolved. Especially when Smart Hayward Jaylen Morris and Horford are on the floor together
Morris's total rebound rate last year was 7.8%. Not sure where you're seeing 15%.
And you didn't say he was a dominant rebounder. I'm just curious as to what he passed eye test wise that makes you so certain he's an upgrade over Olynyk and Amir?
Their rebounding and interior/paint game is the worst. Once in a while Al would show what he could do, but I think it's safe to say losing KO/Amir/Bradley and adding Hayward/Morris does not make this a better rebounding team. If it does, it's on the margins. My eye says it might be worse.
They need someone that can box out and grab boards on the offensive end. If nothing else, box out and create space for the guards and wings to board. It isn't going to be a central focus of the offense but they need that tool in the chest at times and last year they did not have it much at all.
They need someone that can box out and grab boards on the offensive end. If nothing else, box out and create space for the guards and wings to board. It isn't going to be a central focus of the offense but they need that tool in the chest at times and last year they did not have it much at all.
I've always been of the opinion when the time is right and they are ready to really truly contend Danny will address the rebounding issue.
I also would love Dedmon or Baynes w the room exception.
I also would love Dedmon or Baynes w the room exception.
You are so close to claiming I'm in my mother's basement. I am not! I actually watch the games and my eyeballs also tell me different stories about those players.
I would also love Dedmon but I have to feel theres a bigger market for him than the exception. He is good at what he does.
Danny & Co is clearly not done yet.
http://www.weei.com/blogs/weei/danny-ainge-were-not-comfortable-yet
Think they will add one of Dedmon, McGee, Len, Mejri, Reed, Hernangomez, or O'Quinn this off-season, all top 25 rebounders in RP48. Speights also is an option and ranked #41 in RP48
McGee, Len, Mejri, and O'Quinn rank in top 10 for Blocks/48. Dedmon and Reed are in top25
All these players are attainable via signing or trading. None are terribly expensive.
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I think the rebounding issue is a bit overblown. As an example... one of the teams with a worse DRB% than the Celtics was the Warriors.
In both cases, I think the low DRB% is more a feature than a bug, since both teams play killer perimeter D — indeed, they were the top two teams in the league in defensive 3fg%.
Of course, the Ws were #2 in overall defense overall (.01 pts per 100 poss. below the Spurs) where the Cs were #12, so the Cs would seem to have a bit more room for defensive improvement somewhere.
Anyone read this 538 analysis? I thought it was pretty well done
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/do-the-celtics-have-enough-star-power-to-win-a-title-not-yet/
Essentially breaks players into three categories, called Alpha / Beta / Gamma
Alpha: Top 6/8 in league
Beta: Top 20 Player
Gamma: Top 40 player
For the Celtics, Hayward is a Beta here, and Thomas a Gamma.
If you can get past the categorization, it makes a good case that typically a team needs an Alpha to win the championship, and if not it needs a couple Betas at minimum.
By its system the real contenders are Warriors / Cavs and Rockets.
My heart says that there have been exceptions to this (Pistons being the main one), and if any team is set up to classify as an exception it's the Celts. Still the main points in the article are strong I think.
None of this is all that revealing - Celts need a star, everyone knows that. Obtaining via the draft is Plan A. Competing and being attractive for free agents like Durant Plan B. 2017/18 will be long shots but l better than No Shot.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/do-the-celtics-have-enough-star-power-to-win-a-title-not-yet/
Essentially breaks players into three categories, called Alpha / Beta / Gamma
Alpha: Top 6/8 in league
Beta: Top 20 Player
Gamma: Top 40 player
For the Celtics, Hayward is a Beta here, and Thomas a Gamma.
If you can get past the categorization, it makes a good case that typically a team needs an Alpha to win the championship, and if not it needs a couple Betas at minimum.
By its system the real contenders are Warriors / Cavs and Rockets.
My heart says that there have been exceptions to this (Pistons being the main one), and if any team is set up to classify as an exception it's the Celts. Still the main points in the article are strong I think.
None of this is all that revealing - Celts need a star, everyone knows that. Obtaining via the draft is Plan A. Competing and being attractive for free agents like Durant Plan B. 2017/18 will be long shots but l better than No Shot.
One of the gaps with advanced metrics is they cannot control for coaching and context. So, the worst matchups for Amir are ones he rarely if at all encounters on the court because Stevens just doesn't play him long, or at all, when it's smalball. That he has to be pulled isn't good, but it occurs, and plus minus can't adjust for that. It's a little like evaluating a DH's value when there is no defense played by him....you recognize theres a gap but not how it impacts value. This is one of the reasons there are so many bugs with oddly high ratings on plus-minus stats.
All to say, as we should all know but sometimes seems to be forgotten in some posts, the numbers are important to understand but not good enough to use alone especially for role players who are used in specific ways only (or at least primarily)
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The Celtics defense was much better when either of those guys played because they are really good at subtle, but noticeable, aspects of the game like being in the right position on both ends of the floor. I think your eye test is flawed, not because eyes aren't valuable, but because you are evidently watching the wrong things. It's kind of like how way back in the day the "eye test" said Bellhorn was a bad hitter because he struck out a ton. But, if you focused on what he also did, walk and hit for reasonable power, all of a sudden he was a very good offensive player. (This is focused on the brief period with the Red Sox when Bellhorn peaked.) Amir looked bad in the playoffs this year and the advanced stats backed that up. I'd posit that if you can't see the value he and Olynyk bring to the table, it's your eyes that are flawed, not the statistics.
I'd love to get Dedmon, but he seems likely to command more than the room exception and/or to go back to the Spurs.
The caveat I would offer here is that Amir did start for most of the last few years, including his time in Boston. At some level a starter has to be facing a strong level of competition rather than playing exclusively in favorable matchups.
The caveat to my caveat is that Amir tended to start but (at least on the Celtics) not finish.
They both bring value to the table but they were also 20 minute players who could be used in situations that benefit them. Let them play 32-35 minutes a night like Morris and I bet they start to look considerably worse. I'm guessing Morris is going to have a lesser role in Boston and settle in as a 20-25 minute a night guy where he can be used more effectively.
Right, but it isn't a point about 'quality' of competition only, it is also about matchups. If you play 35 minutes you're out there for many different lineups for your team and the competition. If you play 20 a game (like Amir did last year) you see many fewer, and a decent coach is going to spot your against situations that fit your skills better. That will tend over a season to give you better plus minus numbers, but those numbers wouldn't scale up in more minutes---in fact we'd expect them to go down a lot. That's an issue in valuing the player
I do think Amir has value and is better than the eye test...and also that folks who put too much weight on plus minus related stats are overvaluing him a bunch too