Clippers beat Bucks (yay!)
Memphis beats Philly in OT (boo! I think!)
Lakers and Kings playing to a dead heat so far in the 3Q.
Memphis beats Philly in OT (boo! I think!)
Lakers and Kings playing to a dead heat so far in the 3Q.
The ‘18-‘19 Kings/Grizzlies/Clippers: Tracking the Picks
- Thread starter Jed Zeppelin
- Start date
Memphis is good. They’re making the playoffs as long as Gasol/Conley stay healthy. This saddens me.
The thing is it isn't like Gasol/Conley are carrying them either. It's been the 3 through 9 who have been very good. Kyle Anderson is rock solid, Temple and Mack are having career years, then you've got Dillon Brooks and Wayne Selden finding a niche in the league.....suddenly the Grizzlies strength is their depth to overcome injuries to Parsons and JaMychal Green. Not what I was looking out of them for this season for sure.
Another King's win, snapping a 14(!) game losing streak to the Spurs.
I'll admit to enjoying watching this team play, Fox is fun to watch and really coming into his own. Even Harry Giles contributed tonight with 12 points and 6 rebounds. Really wish that Laker's pick conveyed last year, we'll have to hope for some lottery luck this spring if we're gonna get another blue chipper.
I'll admit to enjoying watching this team play, Fox is fun to watch and really coming into his own. Even Harry Giles contributed tonight with 12 points and 6 rebounds. Really wish that Laker's pick conveyed last year, we'll have to hope for some lottery luck this spring if we're gonna get another blue chipper.
Are they though? They're in seventh, but they're only half a game ahead of 11th.
If we assume the Suns, Mavs, and Wolves are out of it (I am not sure the Wolves are, but for the sake of argument) and the Kings will remain below the Grizz, but that the Blazers and Nuggets are playoff locks: they then have to finish above four of the following seven: both LA teams, Utah, New Orleans, OKC, San Antonio, Houston. None of these teams are a slam dunk to be better than the Grizzlies, but I'd have a hard time thinking Memphis is better than the fifth-best team on that list, assuming everyone on each stayed healthy (this isn't going to happen, but probably only OKC is more likely to be the "Derailed by injury" team than the Grizz themselves).
Hopefully I jinxed the Grizzlies but I think they're right there with all those teams. Truth of the matter is that it's pretty close and could potentially go down to the wire. You have to think LeBron carries the Lakers to the playoffs. Houston should be better but they're a very top heavy team. I could go either way on Utah and New Orleans vis-a-vis their positioning with Memphis. I'm encouraged by the Clippers but I remain skeptical that they can sustain this for 82 games.
Yeah I don't think I'd be crowning the Grizzlies just yet. Que the Dennis Green clip......"you wanna crown em then crown em!"
Is calling them one of the best 8 teams in their conference really crowning them? I think they’re legit but you might as well toss that aforementioned group into a hat and pick the winners.
I think we all underrated how good Conley still is and the difference his being back makes for Memphis. That said, with the obvious caveat of injuries, there is no way they are as good as Utah or New Orleans. I think the same is true for OKC. The Clippers, Spurs, Houston, and Lakers are all less certain playoff teams, although Houston is reasonably likely to prove they belong in one of the higher tiers by Christmas.
Basically, I think the most likely scenario in the West is a battle between the Clippers, Lakers and Spurs for the 8 seed with the Grizzlies having a shot at being in that fight but highly unlikely to win it.
I wouldn't anymore than I'd put the Kings in there. I see both as legit being a mid to high-30's team. It's way too early for me to call either in the same group as that list above until they show some positive reaction to adversity during the course of the season. They have each shown out of the gate that neither is a bottom half lottery team which is what we were all hoping to see.
Of course, a team with "High 30s" talent when the cutoff might be high forties could fall out of the playoff race with ten games or more to go, at which point Memphis at least has some incentive to tank to keep their pick (whether they'd prefer the pick to convey this year or next is unclear).
In a story that could only be about the Kings (or the Knicks, I guess), apparently the front office is considering parting ways with head coach Dave Joerger because he’s not playing Bagley enough:
https://sports.yahoo.com/sources-disagreement-kings-direction-lead-coach-dave-joergers-dismissal-003326681.html
This team has been a joke and mired in a losing culture for over a decade, and they’re finally fun again and have something approaching enthusiasm and they may make a coaching change became they’re making a 19 year old one-and-done rookie earn his minutes.
Can’t be bad news for the pick.
https://sports.yahoo.com/sources-disagreement-kings-direction-lead-coach-dave-joergers-dismissal-003326681.html
This team has been a joke and mired in a losing culture for over a decade, and they’re finally fun again and have something approaching enthusiasm and they may make a coaching change became they’re making a 19 year old one-and-done rookie earn his minutes.
Can’t be bad news for the pick.
It's funny, because Bagley hasn't been glued to the bench either. 20+ minutes/game, with a decent usage rate, all in competitive games: pretty good recipe for player development.
It really is pretty much optimal usage for a rookie. Compete for minutes off the bench in competitive games without entitlement. Vlade is gonna Vlade.
I think a lesson these past few years is that regression to the mean is powerful, absent purposeful tanking or the occasional anomaly like the Nets.
But the season is still young and the Kings might end up sucking hard.
But the season is still young and the Kings might end up sucking hard.
The West is so deep that they don't even have to suck hard to have the 2nd worst record in the WC. 34-48 should get them there and with maybe 4 teams from the EC being worse we are talking about the 6th pick in the draft. Ainge has some interesting pieces to possibly move up as well.
It would be the Kingsiest move ever to fire the second decent coach they’ve had in the last decade. And I find myself fervently paying that they do it and put Reddish back into play for the Celtics.
Right after firing their first decent coach in Malone. This Divac Era is metaphorically feuding with Joerger's team on the floor. He could go down as one of the worst GM's in the history of the sport.
Joerger is a great coach. If Vlade shoots him he should be sued for executive malfeasance. I know that isn't a thing but I stand by it.
This team is so deep which is crucial to regular season success. Every night they are getting production from their 3 through 9 with the primary contributors to this group being different guys each game (Shelvin Mack has been ridiculous).....and now they get JaMychal Green back adding even MORE depth to their rotation.
We've grouped the Grizz and Kings together due to our interest regarding the draft pick but these two teams couldn't be any more different. The Kings are a young team with some up and comers where ever their veterans are young......while the Grizz are as veteran of a team as you will find. Based on experience alone the Grizz have a much greater chance of winning games in this league over 82 games than the Kings.
Agreed. Clippers need to keep it up. Memphis not giving us a late lotto pick would be disappointing but the Clippers pick conveying would be a nice consolation.
I'd rather have another 50-50 shot at a high lottery pick than multiple consolations in the high teens. We don't need volume of somewhat-competent bodies on this team, we need (more) underpaid future stars.
I mean, we all would but that Memphis pick is conveying this year whether we like it or not.
Yeah, but I still think it will be a lottery pick. Kings pick too. I think people here were a bit spoiled with the results of the Nets trade but anytime a future pick turns into a lottery pick is a reason to be happy.
I'd guess we end up with something like picks #8, #11, #15, #26 in the draft. If Ainge wants a top pick that bad, he'll have the ammo to move up for one.
We were definitely spoiled with the Nets. Getting one top 3 pick would have been a huge win and we got two.
I think SAC settles in the 7-10 range. MEM is looking far too competent to be a lotto team. Still early, obviously, but I think they have real staying power if Gasol/Conley stay healthy. They are a deep and well-coached bunch.
I’m more bearish on the LAC pick. Going great so far but I don’t think they’ll be able to sustain it. Hopefully they take the 8 seed.
The Kings pick is going to be lottery and probably a decent one too. Not so sure of Memphis that will be a close one imo. The thing is that these weren't simply random future picks where we got lucky to get in the lottery......they were highly calculated moves designed to capitalize on the timing of these teams demise (especially in Memphis) just as the timing of the Brooklyn picks were. These weren't throwing darts against the board hoping to get lucky.....far from it. Failing to maximize these picks IS a disappointment when they have been projected each year to be much higher, particularly in Memphis.
The Kings pick was more a bonus for drafting the guy Ainge wanted all along. I doubt he traded Jeff Green to Memphis thinking that 1st round pick would be a top 3 pick in 2021 as well.
Was Ainge really projecting a top 5 pick in return for Jeff Green or is that just how it looked like it was going to play out the last few years so people made their own projections based on that?
There was no "failure" to maximize those picks. They are not even in control of maximizing those picks. Other teams are. What Ainge was in control of, was getting a 1st round pick for Jeff Green and if you're disappointed the pick ends up in the 11 or 12 slot, that is insane. A lottery pick for Jeff Green is not a disappointment or failure.
The only failure is people having too high an expectation.
Yeah, it's impossible for any projection system to determine with any degree of certainty the expected value of a draft pick that is several years away, even in the NBA. I'm sure in 2004, some projections would have had the Celtics first round in 2008 be a high lottery. Trades, injuries, and the impact of incoming players is not something that can be predicted that far in advance. Memphis won 55 games that year, good enough to be tied with the Spurs and 1 game behind the Rockets.
The Brooklyn picks were a fairly strategic bet that worked out well; the Memphis pick for Jeff Green was a true lottery ticket. The fact that it may not pan out 4 years after the fact is hardly the crushing disappointment some are making out it to be.
The Brooklyn picks were a fairly strategic bet that worked out well; the Memphis pick for Jeff Green was a true lottery ticket. The fact that it may not pan out 4 years after the fact is hardly the crushing disappointment some are making out it to be.
The Memphis core of Zach, Gasol, Tony Allen and Conley didn't figure to be in place due to age/injury as that pick became ready to convey...….Ainge and Zarren absolutely recognized this and we've been discussing the timing of the Grizzly rebuild here for years. It wasn't foolproof by any means however Zach and Tony are done, and Gasol is/was entering his mid-30's where injury/decline were very likely and this team is a small market franchise that didn't figure to secure stars via FA...….I mean geez, this actually happened last year to Memphis!!. Those who expected this got to witness it firsthand.....what we didn't expect is a quick rebound and retool this season.
We've seen trades like this time out perfect in this league for decades......I'm guessing Ainge/Zarren knew precisely what they were trying to accomplish here with a relatively small chance of a successful rebuild in Memphis. It's just that Gasol returned, Conley got and stayed really good, and Chris Wallace has done a tremendous job building around them to remain competitive.
But unlike most teams, that's about the only thing that would improve our team from its present state. Most other teams have lots of ways to get incrementally better, but the threshold for improving our present roster is kinda absurdly high. If we're looking at, say, #14 from Memphis and #20 from LAC, I have to imagine Danny would vastly prefer to trade those picks than make them.
Exactly.
The crushing disappointment you're hearing is that Danny's four-leaf-clover-powered mystical powers had worked for several years in a row, Memphis appeared to suck and be likely to continue sucking, we were within eyesight of an absolutely ridiculous outcome to that trade. Getting top-3 in 2021 was still an unlikely final outcome, but its odds had seemingly risen.
We made the trade in Jan 2015. Memphis picked 25th in 2015 (record: 55-27), 17th in 2016 (42-40), 20th in 2017 (43-39, pick had been traded), and then plummeted to 4th in 2018 (22-60). Things looked disastrous for them and we were anchored around that state of affairs. I think we all were assuming that, if the pick conveyed at all in the next few years, it would at least be lottery. You know, 10th, 12th, something like that. Yeah, out there in the ether was the idea that they'd continue getting into top-6 land the next few years and then come 2021 it was ours. But even if they fought out of "Abysmal" to being just "bad", conveying at #10 next year or #8 the next or something would have been about where we were hoping.
So yeah, we bought a speculative future asset, like a suitcase on Deal Or No Deal. And the first couple sets of suitcases opened were all low-to-medium dollar values; the banker made some pretty impressive offers for our suitcase, its expected value had in fact risen. And also, its variance had lowered, since the time horizon was now a lot closer. But now in the last two months, we've had two more suitcases opened and they were the $1M and the $400k suitcases. There's still some window out there where it could be a great return, but the odds just dropped considerably. We can lament the drop in expected-value, and are not irrational in doing so.
I'm guessing Ainge/Zarren think a late lottery pick is considered a success and part of what they were trying to accomplish. A top 3 pick in 2021 is literally best case scenario that shouldn't be expected by anyone. The most likely outcome was the pick paying off in 2018 or 2019. Even if everything had gone correctly, by the the time 2021 was in play the pick might have ended up 8 or 9.
This is a good return for Jeff Green regardless of the outcome. Even a 30th pick in 2021. People who were expecting a top 5 pick were not being realistic. They were wish casting. Just like people who wanted the Kings pick to be #2 this year.
Of course what you're saying is ridiculous and result oriented (even though results are only based on first 15 games of this season) due to the actual reality of them picking Top-5 just 4 months ago. I agree that Unprotected was not "expected" however there were surely models which supported this result. I'd be fine with mid-lottery out of this pick but that isn't looking so hot right now.
Are you saying there are models that support the results of the Memphis pick being an expected top 5 pick? If there are, those models suck. If there were models that gave the Celtics a small chance of ending up with a top 5 pick, sure. That still isn't the expected outcome, making it unrealistic.
Forget the models.....as I posted above (which you conveniently ignored) the actual result is that the Grizzlies had a Top-5 pick LAST season? If anything the Grizzlie demise occurred too soon!
Answer this question.....do you feel Ainge got "lucky" with the Brooklyn picks or that their demise was forecasted?
The answer is that it is not necessarily an either/or situation.
Ainge correctly forecasted that the Nets would likely have some lean years once Pierce and Garnett retired or otherwise left. He got lucky that the Nets collapse netted the Celtics the #3 and #1 pick in consecutive seasons, with the remaining pick turning into a huge trade chit that netted him Kyrie. It could have easily been two #7 picks, between the inherent inaccuracy of projections multiple years out, the fact that there are always tanking teams, and the vagaries of the lottery itself.
So Ainge correctly forecasted that Pierce and KG would fall off a cliff in their late 30's? That's like Nostradamus-level stuff right there.....AND he got lucky that Brooklyn had no assets remaining to rebuild. I'll step away from this convo as we have fundamental differences in how Ainge has consistently traded for future picks of teams staring down the edge of a cliff 3-5 years out.
That's not his argument. His argument is we all knew the Nets would suck but they could have sucked to the tune of the 7th and 9th pick instead of the 1st and 3rd.
I'm not sure why the bolded is that unbelievable. Both players were already declining rapidly when they were traded.
I don't disagree that Ainge may have decided that the Nets and Grizzlies were ideal trading partners for future draft picks based on their roster composition at the time. But Ainge almost certainly realized that the error bars on any such projections are, by definition, very large. There is no way for any projection system to account for injuries, trades, a mid-round draft stud, and the random chance that is the draft lottery. He maximized his chances of getting high lottery picks at some point; it worked out with the Nets, but didn't with the Grizzlies. I made it very clear that the Nets picks could just as easily have been in that dreaded "mid lottery" range as much as they landed where they did. In fact, one of them did end up mid-lottery, but it was Cleveland's by then, so noone noticed.
Ok you baited me back.
The bolded was sarcasm. As far as there not being any projection system to account for injuries, trades, a mid-round draft stud, and the random events of the draft lottery I'll address each...…..
Injuries - Yes, it was projectable that KG would fall off the cliff with injuries as we had his medicals including those of his knee which caused him to miss games and many practices in his final years here. Projectable that Pierce was on downside at 37, projectable that Joe Johnson and Deron Williams were in a decline. Projectable that Brook Lopez' glass foot would continue to give him problems.
Trades - We had information of the Nets lack of future assets to make trades. They had gutter system of prospects, had bad veteran contracts that carried no trade value, and they were unable to trade any 1st round picks for 6 years due to The Stepien Rule.
Mid-Round Draft Stud - We have decades of draft data showing the dropoff in "draft studs" outside of the Top-3 in the draft. Easily projectable that this would not occur.
Random Chance of Draft Lottery - We know that there is no "random chance" in the lottery as each teams chances are weighed based on previous season record.