The ‘18-‘19 Kings/Grizzlies/Clippers: Tracking the Picks

Tony C

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I really disagree with this take. The Clippers have a 10-deep veteran rotation plus a promising rookie in Gilgeous-Alexander on a very good second unit with Harrell, Boban, Mbah a Moute, and Lou Williams. I've got them in the mid-30's. The injury concerns above may be overstated as well with Gortat and Tobias being as durable of an NBA player as they come. Even if Gallo, Avery, and Beverley miss their standard 20-30 games with their depth that shouldn't force them to ever play non-NBA guys in their regular rotation.
Fully agree on this -- no way are the Clippers bottom 3. Solid and deep....not a playoff team, but not bad. If Gallinari stays healthy (heh-heh) they're really pretty decent. As well, the Free Boban movement seems to be picking up some steam, which is fun.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I feel pretty comfortable putting Sac in the bottom 5 or 6, which would be fine with me given how the lottery odds have smoothed out.
Yeah this is about where I have them at 28-30 wins around 6 to 7 from the basement (give or take a slot or two) with those bottom-3 in the teens and not getting out of the mid-20's. I think the Kings have too much scoring and too much overall talent to be considered in the same sentence as the Hawks, Knicks, Cavs and whoever else falls on their face from the Kings range (Mavs, Bulls, Suns, Magic, Nets, and Grizz) once injuries take their toll (which was why I included "injuries" as an opportunity for the Kings to join the bottom-3).

Of course these ranges will change as the dynamics of the season fall into place (could be as early as next week or two) but as of today I've got:

1-3 Cavs, Hawks, and Knicks
4-10 Mavs, Bulls, Suns, Kings, Magic, Nets, Grizz
 
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luckiestman

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I can’t shake the sinking feeling that Philly is going to get this pick. Cs have had so much good luck lately that it’s seems stupid but I won’t relax until it conveys.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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I can’t shake the sinking feeling that Philly is going to get this pick. Cs have had so much good luck lately that it’s seems stupid but I won’t relax until it conveys.
We're going to be one giant, collective nervous wreck on lottery night as they reveal the order.
 

JakeRae

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The Kings are a very bad team. They are pretty definitely one of the 7 or 8 worst teams in the league. Within that space, they are about as good a bet to finish last as anyone but they are probably more likely than not to not finish in the bottom 3. Like last year, there's a fair bit of parity at the bottom.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Still no update on this very important injury. I guess the thirst for news regarding the Memphis Grizzlies is not particularly high.
 

BigSoxFan

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Still no update on this very important injury. I guess the thirst for news regarding the Memphis Grizzlies is not particularly high.
Would definitely be a game changer and would likely move the pick into 2020 if he suffered a significant injury. Meanwhile, every Philly loss makes me smile and it has nothing to do with the division race.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Would definitely be a game changer and would likely move the pick into 2020 if he suffered a significant injury. Meanwhile, every Philly loss makes me smile and it has nothing to do with the division race.
Gasol is a pretty pedestrian player at this stage of his career and would lead to the Grizz playing more smallball which could actually benefit them. We're finally reaching the key years for this draft pick. Been a long time coming.

On another note, I really don't think this Kings team is "that" bad.
 
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BigSoxFan

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Which is what we want, right? I would much rather gamble on MEM being a bottom 5 team in 2020 than grabbing the 10'ish pick in this draft
It's top 6 protected in 2020 so finishing bottom 5 wouldn't be good for us unless their sucking continued into 2021 when we get it unprotected. I think there is some real potential for them to be bad in 2020-2021 so not having the pick convey this year wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. What would suck is if Gasol/Conley can scrape together one more decent year and we get like #14 or #15 and then we watch their team decay the following couple of years.
 

HomeRunBaker

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It's top 6 protected in 2020 so finishing bottom 5 wouldn't be good for us unless their sucking continued into 2021 when we get it unprotected. I think there is some real potential for them to be bad in 2020-2021 so not having the pick convey this year wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. What would suck is if Gasol/Conley can scrape together one more decent year and we get like #14 or #15 and then we watch their team decay the following couple of years.
This has always been my dream path much like that of the Nets. Ainge and Zarren surely utilized an analytical approach to negotiate how this pick would best be conveyed. The Grizz being in a small market had/have a very strong probability to royally suck once the Gasol/Zach/C-Shoes-led team transitioned into a rebuilding effort. They still do.
 

BigSoxFan

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This has always been my dream path much like that of the Nets. Ainge and Zarren surely utilized an analytical approach to negotiate how this pick would best be conveyed. The Grizz being in a small market had/have a very strong probability to royally suck once the Gasol/Zach/C-Shoes-led team transitioned into a rebuilding effort. They still do.
Definitely agree. I like JJJ but he'll be far too green to lead a team to the playoffs in the next 3 years. Even if they get the #1 pick this year, that guy, too, will be too raw to impact the standings much. Ainge appears to have timed this one perfectly. Either he gets a late lotto pick in 2019 or he has a real good shot at a better lotto pick the following 2 years.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Amusingly, the Kings have the better record than the 6ers in the early going. Unlikely to remain that way but would be funny if that's the pick that conveys.
 

BigSoxFan

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Amusingly, the Kings have the better record than the 6ers in the early going. Unlikely to remain that way but would be funny if that's the pick that conveys.
That wouldn’t be funny at all! This Kings stuff is already annoying me. Memphis looks on their way to another win as well. They could be a playoff team, which would really suck.
 

The Mort Report

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I love how everyone is mad that these basically free picks(and one could argue the SAC pick was icing) might not all be top 3 picks. If all three are in the 15-20 range they are huge wins for what was given up
 

lovegtm

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They intentionally tanked. The Kings have no reason to.
Sorry, I was more making the point that wacky stuff happens every year with NBA early season standings. The Kings aren't going to make the playoffs, but they well might finish ahead of the Suns, Mavs, and 4 or 5 dreck teams in the East. Not a great outcome, but fine as a bonus for Tatum.

The Grizzlies also don't have a great path to the playoffs (the Thunder, Wolves, Lakers, and Rockets are all out of the playoffs as of now), but I'd be decently worried that that pick conveys around 12 or 13, which is a bit of a crappy outcome.
 

BigSoxFan

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I love how everyone is mad that these basically free picks(and one could argue the SAC pick was icing) might not all be top 3 picks. If all three are in the 15-20 range they are huge wins for what was given up
No one is debating the value received on the trades. Clearly, they were great trades. But, if SAC pick conveys at like 12 when they were expected to be a bottom 5 team, that would be disappointing. The difference in value between a top 5 pick and, say, #12 pick can be substantial.

With that said, here are some teams that are currently “out” of the playoffs:

HOU
LAL
MIN
OKC

These teams will pick it up and will likely push all 3 of our picks down in the lottery. That’ll be good for SAC and MEM but bad for LAC.

Ultimately, I think SAC ends up in 6-10 range and MEM in 10-15 range. This wouldn’t be a home run based on what we expected entering the year but would clearly be big wins based on the trades that were made. We’ll just have to see how the talent shakes out.
 

nighthob

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They intentionally tanked. The Kings have no reason to.
While it’s nice to believe that teams can will themselves to win, talent is necessary. And the Kings just don’t have enough of it unless they plan on running a four center lineup.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I love how everyone is mad that these basically free picks(and one could argue the SAC pick was icing) might not all be top 3 picks. If all three are in the 15-20 range they are huge wins for what was given up
Disagree. The picks were not structured in the manner for which they were with a goal of landing in the 15-20 slots. Sure, the trades were won however the miscalculation of where these picks convey would be extremely disappointing to Ainge, Zarren, and most Celtics fans who follow this stuff.
 

lovegtm

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Disagree. The picks were not structured in the manner for which they were with a goal of landing in the 15-20 slots. Sure, the trades were won however the miscalculation of where these picks convey would be extremely disappointing to Ainge, Zarren, and most Celtics fans who follow this stuff.
Mostly agree, with the quibble that MEM definitely didn't think it was giving up a top-10 pick for Jeff Green at the time.
 

lexrageorge

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I'm sure the Celtics front office in 2015 was aware that the error bars would be enormous on any projections for a team 4-6 years down the road. Trades, injuries, impact of incoming rookie draft picks, etc. are essentially impossible to predict with any degree of certainty. I'm sure the Celtics were hoping that the Memphis pick would land in the top 10 at some point, but I cannot necessarily call this pick a "miscalculation".

As for the SAC pick, the Celtics were given 2 chances to draw an ace, with the 2nd chance being more likely given the lesser protections. Don't think anyone could have predicted Kyle Kuzma both (a) landing with the Lakers; and (b) having such a positive impact his rookie season. And I do believe we need to see more than 8 games of Fox, Hield, and Bagley before we annoint the Kings as a playoff team or even a "decent lottery team". Still, 2 of those players were not Kings when Ainge made the trade, which just goes to show how much uncertainty remains in these win projection systems when looking out beyond the current season.
 

Cellar-Door

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Disagree. The picks were not structured in the manner for which they were with a goal of landing in the 15-20 slots. Sure, the trades were won however the miscalculation of where these picks convey would be extremely disappointing to Ainge, Zarren, and most Celtics fans who follow this stuff.
They were structured to get the most upside possible, but the timelines on the LAC and MEM picks was such that they were shots in the dark, there was no real reason to think that they would be top 10 picks, the protection was mostly to prevent getting a pick in the late 20s.

The LAL/SAC pick was the only one that had a good chance of being really good, bit of bad luck with Lonzo not being the disaster rookie PGs usually are. SAC looks surprisingly good but it was still a good bet to make.
 

BigSoxFan

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The Orlando Magic started 6-2 last year, and ended up with the 6th pick in the draft. SAC is still a bad team
I'm going to hold you to this. Seriously, though, their schedule gets a lot tougher soon so I expect a healthy losing streak soon.
 

the moops

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They are currently 3rd in FG% and 4th in 3P%. They are giving up the most points in the league. And while their defense might not be worst in the league bad, I believe in the lousiness of their D over the excellence of their O
 

HomeRunBaker

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They are currently 3rd in FG% and 4th in 3P%. They are giving up the most points in the league. And while their defense might not be worst in the league bad, I believe in the lousiness of their D over the excellence of their O
How bad is their defense though? They have some good individual defenders and seem to be clicking with Joerger's style. Their young core of Fox, Hield, WCS, and JJ are all a year closer to their prime while adding a top rookie in Bagley plus veteran reinforcements in Bjelica (who is wildly underrated), Shumpert, and Ferrell. It's reasonable to add 5-10 wins to the 27 they had last year while running out Garrett Temple and Vince Carter in their rotation now that we are seeing the leaps Fox, Hield and WCS appear to be taking.
 

the moops

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How bad is their defense though? They have some good individual defenders and seem to be clicking with Joerger's style. Their young core of Fox, Hield, WCS, and JJ are all a year closer to their prime while adding a top rookie in Bagley plus veteran reinforcements in Bjelica (who is wildly underrated), Shumpert, and Ferrell. It's reasonable to add 5-10 wins to the 27 they had last year while running out Garrett Temple and Vince Carter in their rotation now that we are seeing the leaps Fox, Hield and WCS appear to be taking.
I am unsure how many plus defenders they have though. Obviously hard to tell this early, and last years numbers are difficult to figure out because of how bad and the tanking. But Hield and Bjelica are most certianly not good defenders. Bagley being a rookie is going to struggle even if he his defense is not as bad as everyone expected.

Either way, it is still way too early to try and figure out how a young team is going to perform by years end.
 

Buster Olney the Lonely

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It’s so early. Memphis got off to a 5-2 start last year and they finished with the second most ping pong balls. Sacramento has gotten hot starts from Buddy, WCS and Bjelica who are shooting well above their career norms. And the schedule hasn’t been anything. The win at OKC was impressive. Other than that, meh. Maybe the win at Orlando last night which was part two of a back to backer.
 

Swedgin

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They are currently 3rd in FG% and 4th in 3P%. They are giving up the most points in the league. And while their defense might not be worst in the league bad, I believe in the lousiness of their D over the excellence of their O
You need to take into account pace if you are going to look at points given up. The Kings Def Rating is in the middle of the league at 110. As is their Offensive Rating.

I am with you that the win/loss record is going to come back to earth. Their current net rating has them at 15th in the league. I would bet they end up in the low 20's.

They have an identity now. Bjelica looks like another indictment of Thibs coaching (at least on offense). Fox is making the jump one would hope for in a sophomore point guard. WCS wants to get paid. Hield, while far from Steph 2.0, is also not the bust some pegged him as. I doubt they make the playoffs, but they are clearly in a different tier than the tankers (Suns, Bull, Hawks) and the likely tankers (Cavs, Orlando, Knicks).
 

heavyde050

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I'm hoping the Kings get a record bad enough to be a bottom 6 or 7 team but not bad enough that they could get the #1 pick. It would be nice to get the 2 or 3 pick but 5-6-7 range is fine.
This is exactly where I am as well. I want zero part of the Sixers getting the #1 pick in this upcoming draft.
 

BigSoxFan

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I'm hoping the Kings get a record bad enough to be a bottom 6 or 7 team but not bad enough that they could get the #1 pick. It would be nice to get the 2 or 3 pick but 5-6-7 range is fine.
Problem is they may be (slightly) better than that. I think a pic in that 5-7 range would be a very acceptable result for us. Not sure there is going to be a huge difference between 3 and 7 in this draft but we’ll have to see on that.

Don’t want to root for injuries but that Memphis pick could really use a Gasol/Conley extended absence. Maybe one of them can drive a cab for a bit Cowens-style.
 

Average Game James

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The Kings are scoring and winning far too much for my liking. Currently 6-3. I'm not sure I expected 6 wins before 2019...
 

HowBoutDemSox

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The Kings are scoring and winning far too much for my liking. Currently 6-3. I'm not sure I expected 6 wins before 2019...
Current win streak is against the Grizzlies, Wizards, Heat, Magic, and tonight against the Hawks. Not quite a murderer's row, though they have showed something. Hopefully they wilt against better competition.

That said, they have some fun young players. Doesn't look like a bottom 5 team. Need to keep telling ourselves that this pick is just gravy.
 

radsoxfan

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I'm hoping the Kings get a record bad enough to be a bottom 6 or 7 team but not bad enough that they could get the #1 pick. It would be nice to get the 2 or 3 pick but 5-6-7 range is fine.
I hope they are a bad as possible, even at the risk of increasing the chance of the pick ending up #1. The new lotto odds go into effect for this upcoming 2019 lottery. To use the worst vs the 7th worst records as an example for 2019.

Worst record = 14% top pick
7th worst record = 7.5% top pick

I would gladly take that small increase in the odds of losing the pick to be slotted that much higher in the draft.

Honestly, even in the old system the difference is 25% vs 5% (worst vs 7th worst again), and I would still prefer the Kings be the worst team in the league. You'd have a 75% chance of keeping the pick, and that pick would be 2, 3, or 4.

There is such a big difference being able to draft that high vs mid lottery it's definitely worth the chance of losing the pick entirely (especially for a team like Boston that will be just fine if they get nothing).
 

Cellar-Door

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Amusingly as of today we wouldn't get the Kings pick at all.
We'd get Philly's pick, this is the current 19-22
19- Boston via Philly
20- Boston via LAC
21- Philly via Sacramento
22-Boston via Memphis
 

BigSoxFan

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Very helpful Grizzlies loss tonight against Suns. Grizzlies’ next 5 games:

Warriors
Nuggets
Sixers
Jazz
Bucks
 

HomeRunBaker

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Amusingly as of today we wouldn't get the Kings pick at all.
We'd get Philly's pick, this is the current 19-22
19- Boston via Philly
20- Boston via LAC
21- Philly via Sacramento
22-Boston via Memphis
I just had Sully Melo nightmares.
 

Koufax

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Tankathon shows us as having the no. 24 pick (our own, I presume). So you can have stereophonic Sully Melo nightmares. It would be swell if Danny could trade a couple of 2019 first round picks for 2020 picks. As we learned a year ago, the team can only absorb so many fresh recruits.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I'm not too worried about the Kings but I was never expecting to get a top 4 pick in the draft either. The Kings are a lot like the Magic at the beginning of last year. They are winning games because they are shooting 3s at close to a 40% clip. That will regress, and when it does, they will start to lose. They have a deep team and a nice, talented young core to build around but atm it lacks top talent. Fox and Bagley have the potential to get there, maybe even Hield.

I think Memphis is good enough to not be a bottom 8 team but also not good enough to make the playoffs. A lot of their early season success has been because of a very easy schedule. They are the reverse of the Kings in that they have some top talent but no depth around it and outside of JJJ, don't have much in the way of potential or improvement.

If it plays out that way, that means 2 mid to late lottery picks next year. If the Clippers squeak into the playoffs as an 8 seed, that would be 3 picks in the top half of the draft, and their own pick still left. They'd be in a position to move up in the draft or make a big time trade. Something would have to happen anyway, there is no room for 4 more rookies. That's something to worry about if/when it happens. It'll be interesting if the Celtics keep their 2nd round pick too, protected 31-55. Maybe Memphis will get our 58th pick in the draft for their 9th or 10th.

I'm guessing most people are rooting for Memphis to be a bottom 6 team so the pick doesn't convey though. I'd rather have a lottery pick this year than hope for the best in 2020 or 2021. In a scenario where we get all 3 picks, I could see why some may be rooting against it and rolling it over for 2 more seasons but that scenario offers Ainge a lot of options.

It's amazing really. The team is already loaded and still has the potential to add 2 more lottery talents in the next few years. It's fun contending for a championship and drafting in the lottery.
 

JakeRae

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I think the best case is the Kings pick being high lottery, the Clippers conveying, and the Memphis pick not. The Memphis pick probably has more trade up value (if that is the goal) as a future lottery ticket than as a #10 pick. And, pushing it forward helps with roster management now. I think Memphis is likely to convey, although there is also the chance they move up in the lottery that could push things back.

Also, even a Kings team that finishes 7 or 8 has a real shot at delivering a top 4 pick with the restructured lottery.