Yes...but what are the chances that a team drafting 1-8 (and hopefully 8) and then 1-6, are going to improve that much in the NBA's west in 2 years? They're not signing a big FA to turn things around.
The ‘18-‘19 Kings/Grizzlies/Clippers: Tracking the Picks
- Thread starter Jed Zeppelin
- Start date
What are the chances a team surprises and performs better than expected? Seems like that happens every year, with this years Kings being a notable example. If we get a 9-10 pick this year I won't be that disappointed.
Sure, it does happen. But does that Memphis team seem a likely candidate with the roster they have?
It only takes one player. It's possible the pick conveys, everyone is disappointed, and the 9th pick of the draft ends up being the next Celtics HOFer.
Or Memphis drafts that player at 7 and win 35 games next year and 50 the following. It's the NBA. 1 player changes everything.
Right, the only things keeping Memphis out of the NBA's cellar are Conley and Gasol. Gasol's tank is on E, Conley has had several injuries the last few years, and the Grizzlies appear at least open to the possibility of trading one or both of them. If the pick doesn't convey this year (and they don't land Zion with it), the odds would seem to be quite good that it doesn't convey next year either, and that the chances of a franchise-altering pick conveying in 2021 would be non-trivial.
I know basketball is a passing fancy for you but Gasol is not on the Grizzlies any longer.
I guess the fear is that JJJ, a top-8 pick this year and a top-6 pick next year could be a decent young core, akin to the Kings with Fox, Hield and Bagley, and now it’s a late lottery selection in 2021, but either way it’s such a high variance situation that keeping the pick alive is an alluring trading piece for Danny to dangle.
For starters, Gasol isn't on the Grizzlies anymore. Secondly, one of their greatest strengths is their veteran depth 9-deep in the rotation so not sure how you could see them as top-heavy when it seems to be exactly the opposite with guys like Valanciunas, Avery Bradley, Delon Wright, Parsons, Noah, and CJ Miles in the rotation.
The C's are in a unique situation because of Anthony Davis. The picks and their commensurate contracts constitute an important portion of the trade package. If the C's get picks 9/13/15/25 a back of the envelope estimate for draft slot salaries is approximately 13 million. That is a big chunk of the money that has to go back to NOP and lets us keep someone like Smart.
No need to be rude about it. I missed that transaction when it was made a few weeks ago. Thanks for pointing it out.
Veterans yes, but I have a hard time seeing most of those players being the difference between 20 wins / top-6 pick, and 35 wins / low-lottery. Not that I have your understanding of the stats or anything, but here's Win Shares season-to-date:
Conley: 7.1
Gasol: 4.1
All the other players you mention combined: 4.0
(Noah 1.9, Valanciunas 1.0, Bradley 0.7, Wright 0.6, Miles 0.2, Parsons -0.3)
Gasol was 2nd on the team in total minutes played (PER 17.1), followed by Temple (8.7), JJJ (16.5, clearly a future star), Kyle Anderson (12.9) and Shelvin Mack (11.1). To my eyes that's a roster that's going to deliver replacement-value production going forward unless JJJ makes a much bigger and faster leap. More importantly, if they trade Conley as was rumored around the deadline (signed for 1 more year), I'm not sure how they're doing anything besides bottom-dwelling the next two seasons.
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If you're the Grizz, you want to be exactly ninth worst, right? Decent chance of jumping to top four, otherwise pick conveys. Conversely, absolute worst place to be is probably exactly eighth. They're in such a weird place right now.
Absolutely. It's always a gamble. But I think in THIS case, with THIS Memphis team, it seems like it's a pretty good gamble.
I think it would be closer to 11 million than 13 million. This is a great point though. Those 4 picks + Yabu + Brown get you within a million dollars
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Unspoken in all this is that there's a non-zero chance that Boston needs their first round picks to rebuild if/when Irving and Durant pick their next team. This also leads to an oddity, Boston has to make those picks based on their own internal evaluations of BPA, which will likely not be the same as Ferry's. But Ferry would undoubtedly prefer his guys if he's collecting the picks as part of the return.
Sure, but they'll very likely know one way or the other about Kyrie by the time the draft happens.
Boston will need two of those picks as roster players even if Kyrie stays. I suppose that Ainge can include all in a trade and backfill with Euros, but that's less predictable.
Regarding Ferry's wishes, they are probably talking. Can't imagine that they aren't.
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Assuming that he tells them, yes. Hopefully this becomes a moot point when Durant demands a trade to Boston prior to his option and two of the picks are sent with Hayward to Golden State.
I just checked in with Tankathon, and in my first click, Boston got the 2nd and 9th pick, along with the Clip pick at 18 and the Celtics pick at 23.
If Boston hits its 2% chance to get pick 2-4, I can't imagine the Pels not trading Davis to Boston, even without Tatum in the deal. If the Lakers get lucky and get hit their 2.5% (and rising) chance at number 1, Davis will be a Laker, assuming Malinka prefers Davis over LeBron 2.0 being groomed by LeBron 1.0.
I value the MEM pick higher as a trade asset if it doesn't convey this season, but if it does hit, Boston will have as trade assets a 9, 14, 18, and 23. They would have ammo to move up, or to trade for a player or two that the Pels covet.
If Kyrie bolts, the Cs have four chances to land a future all star as they build around Tatum and Brown. Kyrie leaving would be disappointing, but that's not a bad floor.
If Boston hits its 2% chance to get pick 2-4, I can't imagine the Pels not trading Davis to Boston, even without Tatum in the deal. If the Lakers get lucky and get hit their 2.5% (and rising) chance at number 1, Davis will be a Laker, assuming Malinka prefers Davis over LeBron 2.0 being groomed by LeBron 1.0.
I value the MEM pick higher as a trade asset if it doesn't convey this season, but if it does hit, Boston will have as trade assets a 9, 14, 18, and 23. They would have ammo to move up, or to trade for a player or two that the Pels covet.
If Kyrie bolts, the Cs have four chances to land a future all star as they build around Tatum and Brown. Kyrie leaving would be disappointing, but that's not a bad floor.
The Lakers refusing to trade Zion for AD would be hilarious. LeBron would be so passive aggressive
Yeah there's no way the Lakers trade LBJ to build around Zion (because if they fucked over his client like that you know he's played his last game as a Laker).
You have to hope that Memphis sucks this year and next and gets no transformative players in the draft and then swipe their 2021 unprotected when they are horrible. Need Clippers to make the playoffs to avoid losing a first rounder. For the Sac/PHI, a real win on that at this point is just for them to not win the #1 pick and send Zion to Philly.
The Kings Wizards game is pretty big for Celtics fans. Kings losing 28-19 close to the end of the 1st quarter.
Down 12 late in 3rd. Result impacts all 3 non-Celtics picks. My brain is melting.
You need to start predicting that Durant will never be traded to Boston this June.
Guy is gold. I'd fear letting him in my house during a big game, except that he already knows the right thing to say.
BigSoxFan, keep doing what you're doing.
With the Celtics helping their own draft cause last night, the nightmare scenario of Sacramento making the playoffs at the expense of the Clippers is close to dead. If the Clippers win only their remaining 4 games against the bottom 4 teams in the league (that is go 4-10), the Kings would still need to go 11-5 to pass the Clippers. Of course, the Celtics could add another nail to the doomsday scenario by beating the Kings at home on Thursday.
Now that the Clipper pick is looking extremely strong to convey, the next priority is to make sure Memphis stays in the bottom 8. In addition, there is still hope that an extended King losing streak will drop them a few spots.
Now that the Clipper pick is looking extremely strong to convey, the next priority is to make sure Memphis stays in the bottom 8. In addition, there is still hope that an extended King losing streak will drop them a few spots.
Clippers were 99% to make postseason BEFORE that game started. I think a win would have served the Celtics better, pushing them closer to 3rd seed.
Unfortunately, the Clippers didn't feel the same way. They crushed the Celtics the entire game. Boston still can get the third seed. They hold tiebreakers on Philly and Indy, play Philly once and the Pacers twice, and Indiana has a very difficult schedule. Besides the game next week in Philly, Boston should be favored in the remaining 13 games, with maybe the game in Indiana at the end of the season a toss up if the Pacers are not floundering by then
I haven't watched the recording yet (way past my bedtime), but it doesn't seem that the Celtics management had much to do with the outcome. Unless you think that Tatum was going to +50 that game, call it an egg.
Yeah, listening to the two Boston radio sports shows yesterday afternoon was pure comedy gold. These clowns are trying to convince listeners that one dud in a successful 4-game California road swing is more predictive of the team as a whole because of which game the dud occurred in. It was painfully enjoyable to listen to their cluelessness.
You had me at "Boston radio sports shows."
I enjoyed two minutes of Felger bemoaning the loss of Flowers on Monday. Four SB in the last five years with three wins, and people want to dump on Belichick's personnel moves. Surely they have time to write the Celtics' obituary.
I enjoyed two minutes of Felger bemoaning the loss of Flowers on Monday. Four SB in the last five years with three wins, and people want to dump on Belichick's personnel moves. Surely they have time to write the Celtics' obituary.
Memphis #7 (won't go to Boston unless it drops to 9 or worse)
Sacramento #15
LAC #19
Celtics #21