The ‘18-‘19 Kings/Grizzlies/Clippers: Tracking the Picks

[BigSoxFan]

Maglinka have to be really kicking themselves over that move as Davis would be a Laker today had they selected Fox.

Sure would. It’s pretty tough to screw up a situation where you basically knew 1 year in advance that you were getting the best player in the league but, by god, Maglinka found a way.

Drafted Ball over Tatum/Fox

Got cute with Paul George assuming he would sign the following instead of just trading Ingram+ and getting him in house

Maybe it all works out and AD signs there next summer but the Lakers might actually completely bust out with LeBron. Will be very interesting to see what they do this summer.

 

[lovegtm]

Maglinka have to be really kicking themselves over that move as Davis would be a Laker today had they selected Fox.

Hey, whenever you can destroy your leverage by telegraphing your pick, and also get to take a guy who refuses to play anywhere except in your city, when what you really need are trade assets, you gotta do it. It's what smart GMs do to win ball games.

 

[lovegtm]

Got cute with Paul George assuming he would sign the following instead of just trading Ingram+ and getting him in house

This doesn't get enough attention. Ingram's value was waaaayyyy higher soon after he was drafted than it is now, and it's not just because his next contract is coming up soon. He was perceived as the clear #2 in that draft after Simmons, with superstar upside. The Lakers really missed a chance to sell high there.

 

[nighthob]

This doesn't get enough attention. Ingram's value was waaaayyyy higher soon after he was drafted than it is now, and it's not just because his next contract is coming up soon. He was perceived as the clear #2 in that draft after Simmons, with superstar upside. The Lakers really missed a chance to sell high there.

I said that at the time, they dithered prior to the trade deadline in '17 when the cost to LA was Ingram and their first round pick, which likely wouldn't have ended up #2 with George winning games for them. And then they lowballed Indiana after the season insisting on keeping #2 for Ball.

My Laker fan friends kept telling me smugly "Why should we give up Ball for a guy that's going to sign here anyway?" Now they've all fallen back on "Well, things haven't worked out for Boston either!!!" whenever the subject comes up.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I said that at the time, they dithered prior to the trade deadline in '17 when the cost to LA was Ingram and their first round pick, which likely wouldn't have ended up #2 with George winning games for them. And then they lowballed Indiana after the season insisting on keeping #2 for Ball.

My Laker fan friends kept telling me smugly "Why should we give up Ball for a guy that's going to sign here anyway?" Now they've all fallen back on "Well, things haven't worked out for Boston either!!!" whenever the subject comes up.

Which begs the obvious question:

Why are you friends with Lakers fans?

 

[Captaincoop]

There's still a chance the Grizzlies pick conveys at #9. If they're sitting at 8, the odds of someone from 9-14 jumping up in the lottery are not insurmountable.

 

[amfox1]

I'm not worried about Memphis. They're at 40 losses and the 7/8 teams (WAS/DAL) are at 37 and 36, respectively. Memphis isn't going to win very many more games. This one feels pretty safe.

I don't think it's as safe as you do. WAS and DAL each has played three less games than MEM.

MEM plays DAL twice (home and away) and at WAS once. WAS hosts DAL tonight.

I don't see MEM getting past 8 in the regular season, but as noted above, there's an approx. 30% chance of the #8 team being passed in the lottery and slipping to #9.

 

[snowmanny]

Sure would. It’s pretty tough to screw up a situation where you basically knew 1 year in advance that you were getting the best player in the league but, by god, Maglinka found a way.

.....

Maybe it all works out and AD signs there next summer but the Lakers might actually completely bust out with LeBron. Will be very interesting to see what they do this summer.

Yeah, if the Lakers have to wait until 2020-2021 to pair some actual player with James it didn't all work out. I'm waiting for Max Kellerman to point out that LeBron's cliff is coming.

 

[nighthob]

The Celtics doing their part for the draft pick.

 

[In my lifetime]

Things are certainly looking up, the Kings last 6 losses have been by a total of 21 points. 4 of the 6 losses by 1 or 2 points.

 

[InstaFace]

SAC is 4 games out of the playoffs, thankfully (since it would immediately put their pick at #18), but at #14 they are 2.5 games "back" of the #13 pick, the Lakers and Wolves. They're still in striking distance of as far down as New Orleans (#9, 3.5 GB), but they need an injury or to go on a bad run.

 

[BigSoxFan]

SAC is 4 games out of the playoffs, thankfully (since it would immediately put their pick at #18), but at #14 they are 2.5 games "back" of the #13 pick, the Lakers and Wolves. They're still in striking distance of as far down as New Orleans (#9, 3.5 GB), but they need an injury or to go on a bad run.

I’ll settle for #14 since it would likely mean that the Clips pick conveys at #18. I gave that pick very little chance of conveying after the Harris trade but there’s a decent chance it does.

 

[InstaFace]

Difference in odds of getting #2-4 between the pick being pre-lottery #14 vs pre-lottery #9 (the best realistic pre-lottery outcome at this point) is a jump from 1.9% -> 15.8%. I'm not settling yet!

 

[HowBoutDemSox]

Difference in odds of getting #2-4 between the pick being pre-lottery #14 vs pre-lottery #9 (the best realistic pre-lottery outcome at this point) is a jump from 1.9% -> 15.8%. I'm not settling yet!

Also increases the odds of the doomsday scenario from 0.5% to 4.5%. The thought of Zion to Philly is . . . discomforting.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Difference in odds of getting #2-4 between the pick being pre-lottery #14 vs pre-lottery #9 (the best realistic pre-lottery outcome at this point) is a jump from 1.9% -> 15.8%. I'm not settling yet!

I like where your head is at. I have a hard time believing Sac falls much further, if any, given how everyone else looks but I will certainly be rooting for it!

(And then will be joining Team DeJesus in rooting for them next year. I really do like their Fox, Hield, Bagley core).

 

[Cesar Crespo]

I like where your head is at. I have a hard time believing Sac falls much further, if any, given how everyone else looks but I will certainly be rooting for it!

(And then will be joining Team DeJesus in rooting for them next year. I really do like their Fox, Hield, Bagley core).

Harry Giles has been pretty good the last few months too and someone only turns 21 in April. It seems like this guy has been on NBA radars since he was 11. The injuries took their toll but it looks like he's going to have an NBA career.

 

[lovegtm]

Also increases the odds of the doomsday scenario from 0.5% to 4.5%. The thought of Zion to Philly is . . . discomforting.

Gotta spend money to make money!

 

[InstaFace]

I think at this point, we owe it to Kings nation and to karma in general to all of us root for Sacramento... next year. Last night was real fun, Fox has (healthy) John Wall-grade speed to the basket.

I would much rather take an increased risk of Zion to Philly, in exchange for a 3-times-that increase in our odds of adding someone truly transformative, over a default scenario of us proceeding the next few years with roughly our current championship equity. 16% and 2% both feel like "remote" odds, but I've rolled enough dice to know that it should be the difference between us watching the lottery live vs idly checking the results the next day.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

I think at this point, we owe it to Kings nation and to karma in general to all of us root for Sacramento... next year. Last night was real fun, Fox has (healthy) John Wall-grade speed to the basket.

I would much rather take an increased risk of Zion to Philly, in exchange for a 3-times-that increase in our odds of adding someone truly transformative, over a default scenario of us proceeding the next few years with roughly our current championship equity. 16% and 2% both feel like "remote" odds, but I've rolled enough dice to know that it should be the difference between us watching the lottery live vs idly checking the results the next day.

The reverse is true with the Memphis pick. At 6th, there is a 3.9% chance the pick conveys. At 7th, 15.2%. 8th, 39.2%.

Those are drastic differences.

 

[DJnVa]

I just had to run Tankathon 44 times until our pick moved at all. From #14 to #9.

It moved to #1 on 67th try. BOO

Then to #3 on 69th try.

Memphis only conveyed to Boston once.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

SAC is 4 games out of the playoffs, thankfully (since it would immediately put their pick at #18), but at #14 they are 2.5 games "back" of the #13 pick, the Lakers and Wolves. They're still in striking distance of as far down as New Orleans (#9, 3.5 GB), but they need an injury or to go on a bad run.

If you are really optimistic, maybe even 8th. The Wizards have been playing close to .500 ball since their terrible 2-9 start and are still in the playoff hunt.

 

[amfox1]

Could be important to MEM. NO could sit Jrue for the rest of the season.

New Orleans Pelicans‏ @PelicansNBA 31m31 minutes ago
Roster Update: Jrue Holiday has been diagnosed with a lower abdominal strain. An MRI taken this morning and examination by Pelicans Director of Medical Services/Head Team Physician Dr. Misty Suri confirmed the injury. Holiday will be re-evaluated in 7-10 days

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Could be important to MEM. NO could sit Jrue for the rest of the season.

New Orleans Pelicans‏ @PelicansNBA 31m31 minutes ago
Roster Update: Jrue Holiday has been diagnosed with a lower abdominal strain. An MRI taken this morning and examination by Pelicans Director of Medical Services/Head Team Physician Dr. Misty Suri confirmed the injury. Holiday will be re-evaluated in 7-10 days

And the Kings pick.

 

[amfox1]

6. MEM 27-40 (won tonight)
7. WAS 27-38 (lost tonight)
8. DAL 27-38 (lost tonight)
9. NO 30-38 (lost tonight)

 

[snowmanny]

I just had to run Tankathon 44 times until our pick moved at all. From #14 to #9.

It moved to #1 on 67th try. BOO

Then to #3 on 69th try.

Memphis only conveyed to Boston once.

I tried it and got #2 on the first try. I'm way better than you at this stuff. I'll volunteer to go in the quarantine room while you watch on TV.

 

[Ed Hillel]

6. MEM 27-40 (won tonight)
7. WAS 27-38 (lost tonight)
8. DAL 27-38 (lost tonight)
9. NO 30-38 (lost tonight)

That pick is conveying unless it slips into the top 3. NBA tankathon is truly a sight to behold.

Could end up with 3 picks between 10 and 16, though.

 

[Imbricus]

Interesting that the Clippers aren't tanking, but I wonder if they realize that slipping into the playoffs is better if they want to lure Leonard. The Lakers are looking more like a tire fire with each passing day. If the Clippers can create some separation between themselves and their L.A. brethren, that would seem to only strengthen their hand in the pursuit of Leonard. Interestingly, they're 7-3 over the last 10, while the Lakers have gone 2-8.

Viewed in that light, the 1st round pick they would surrender to the Celtics on making the playoffs is immaterial.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Interesting that the Clippers aren't tanking, but I wonder if they realize that slipping into the playoffs is better if they want to lure Leonard. The Lakers are looking more like a tire fire with each passing day. If the Clippers can create some separation between themselves and their L.A. brethren, that would seem to only strengthen their hand in the pursuit of Leonard. Interestingly, they're 7-3 over the last 10, while the Lakers have gone 2-8.

Viewed in that light, the 1st round pick they would surrender to the Celtics on making the playoffs is immaterial.

Reddit tells me that Clips are 22-4 vs Lakers over last six seasons. That's pretty amazing.

From the Clippers perspective, they have a bunch of good young players. Making the playoffs (and losing the draft pick) gives their young players invaluable experience. Plus I'm guessing that the cap space is more important right now than drafting in late lottery. Which is good for the Cs.

 

[amfox1]

Update on picks as of 3/9am:

MEM 1st round pick - currently #6, top 8 protected, 2.5 games behind NO w/15 games left (won't convey to BOS)
SAC 1st round pick - currently #14, top 1 protected, 4.0 games behind SA w/18 games left (will convey to BOS)
LAC 1st round pick - currently #19, top 14 protected, 4.5 games ahead of SAC w/15 games left (will convey to BOS)
BOS 2nd round pick - currently #52 or #53, 31-55 protected, 2.0 games behind IND w/16 games left (won't convey to MEM)
BOS also has its own 1st round pick - currently #22 or #23

MEM schedule (9H, 8A, 5 vs. sub-.450) - DAL(x2), GS(x2), POR(x2), ORL(x2), OKC, ATL, HOU, WAS, MIN, PHX, LAC, DET

SAC schedule (7H, 11A, 9 vs. sub-.450) - HOU(x2), DAL(x2), NO(x2), BOS, NYK, WAS, PHI, CHI, BRK, PHX, LAL, SA, CLE, UTA, POR

LAC schedule (10H, 5A, 4 vs. sub-.450) - CLE(x2), NYK, LAL, BOS, POR, CHI, BRK, IND, MIN, MIL, MEM, HOU, GS, UTA

BOS schedule (7H, 9A, 5 vs. sub-.450) - MIA(x2), IND(x2), SAC, LAC, LAL, DEN, PHI, ATL, SA, CLE, CHA, BRK, ORL, WAS

 

[NomarsFool]

If this were the NFL, I'd love picking at 14, 19, and 23. Unfortunately in the NBA, though, it's not nearly as exciting. So, what do they do with these?

What does packaging two of them usually get you? It seems like you'd have to be pretty desperate to trade a good lottery pick for 2 picks in this range.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

If this were the NFL, I'd love picking at 14, 19, and 23. Unfortunately in the NBA, though, it's not nearly as exciting. So, what do they do with these?

What does packaging two of them usually get you? It seems like you'd have to be pretty desperate to trade a good lottery pick for 2 picks in this range.

you could probably package 14, 19 and 23 to move up to like 7th or 8th lol. The Eddie Griffin trade.

And depending on the moves they make this summer, they could actually use the picks to fill out the bench. There's going to be plenty of roster spots on this team. Even standing pat, they could use the picks to replace Rozier, Morris, Baynes/Theis, etc. This team will need bodies next year regardless.

 

[BigSoxFan]

you could probably package 14, 19 and 23 to move up to like 7th or 8th lol. The Eddie Griffin trade.

And depending on the moves they make this summer, they could actually use the picks to fill out the bench. There's going to be plenty of roster spots on this team. Even standing pat, they could use the picks to replace Rozier, Morris, Baynes/Theis, etc. This team will need bodies next year regardless.

If the picks aren’t needed for a trade, I keep them all and just pick BPA. Don’t see much of a difference between the 7-10 guys and 15-20.

 

[TripleOT]

The MEM pick has more value as trade fodder, protected to 6 next season and unprotected the following. It looks like the Clippers pick will convey, even if the Celtics beat them in LA. The 6th place Kings are 4.5 games back with 18 to go. If Boston loses to the Clips, and beats the Kings next week in Boston, it's over, but even if the Clips lose and the Kings beat the Celtics in Boston, Sacto still has a tough road. They have to play at BOS and PHI back to back, then at HOU and SAS b2b, and at Utah and Portland to finish out the season. They also have the Rockets at home.

Even if they go 13-5 the rest of the way, which would be quite a feat, the Clips would have to go 6-9 for the Kings to slip past them and knock the Clips out of the playoffs. The Spurs would have to pass LA too. It looks like the Celtics will be getting the Clippers pick at 17-20, and the Sacto exchange at 14, unless the Celtics' 1.9% chance of moving to top 3 comes through.

It would be amazing if either/or the Wiz and Mavs tank enough to push MEM to 9, or even sweeter, push them to eight and have the Sacto one outer come through and have the Celtics move up to pick 2-4, knocking the Griz to nine, conveying that pick also. 2, 9, 17 would be the best case scenario, if one favored the MEM pick conveying this season.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Clippers also have the tiebreaker on SAC, which is big.

 

[TripleOT]

Clippers also have the tiebreaker on SAC, which is big.

Yes, they swept the Kings.

 

[TripleOT]

On my 39th try, the Kings/Celtics pick got to number 2 on tankathon

 

[HomeRunBaker]

If this were the NFL, I'd love picking at 14, 19, and 23. Unfortunately in the NBA, though, it's not nearly as exciting. So, what do they do with these?

What does packaging two of them usually get you? It seems like you'd have to be pretty desperate to trade a good lottery pick for 2 picks in this range.

1. Included as part of AD trade.
2a. Kick tire down road by moving one or two of these picks for protected pick in '20 or '21 to a GM in need of a bump this summer.
2b. Consolidate two picks to move up a couple slots if there is "Danny's guy" available.

2a so fits Danny's M.O. and there will be plenty of these guys looking to add a mid-first "for free" this summer at the cost of a pick they may not even be around to see lost.

 

[lovegtm]

1. Included as part of AD trade.
2a. Kick tire down road by moving one or two of these picks for protected pick in '20 or '21 to a GM in need of a bump this summer.
2b. Consolidate two picks to move up a couple slots if there is "Danny's guy" available.

2a so fits Danny's M.O. and there will be plenty of these guys looking to add a mid-first "for free" this summer at the cost of a pick they may not even be around to see lost.

If they consolidate the roster and get more top heavy, they’re also going to simply need more cost-controlled players down the road.

Kicking the can down further by trading them for top-10 or whatever protected picks is a good idea. And always have to keep in mind: there have been a lot of solid to really-good guys picked 10-20 the past few years. It’s not a guarantee, but nailing a pick in that range can really change a team’s trajectory.

 

[snowmanny]

If they lower the draft age to 18 that should the draft an even less predictable process, and theoretically increase the value of later picks relative to top 10 picks.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Kings beat hapless Knicks. Remain 4 GB.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Just looked at the standings and ugh.

Dallas 27-38
Wizards 27-39
Memphis 27-40

Memphis is 4-2 in their last 6 and 7-7 over their last 14. I thought this pick was pretty safe a week ago. That's the one thing that sucks about terrible teams. If they have a good stretch where they pick up a 4-5 wins, they can shoot up the standings. They play the Magic tonight, @ Atlanta on 3/13, @ Washington on 3/16. They have another game against Phoenix and 2 more against Dallas too.

 

[mcpickl]

Just looked at the standings and ugh.

Dallas 27-38
Wizards 27-39
Memphis 27-40

Memphis is 4-2 in their last 6 and 7-7 over their last 14. I thought this pick was pretty safe a week ago. That's the one thing that sucks about terrible teams. If they have a good stretch where they pick up a 4-5 wins, they can shoot up the standings. They play the Magic tonight, @ Atlanta on 3/13, @ Washington on 3/16. They have another game against Phoenix and 2 more against Dallas too.

I think Memphis ends up right where they are. I'd bet they limit Conley pretty soon, if not shut him down entirely.

Of their remaining 15 games, they have much tougher opponents in their 7 home games than in their 8 away games, and they are 3-17 in their last 20 road games.

Tonight vs Orlando is their best shot for a win for a while. I'd be surprised if they could do better than 2-5 in the next 7.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I think Memphis ends up right where they are. I'd bet they limit Conley pretty soon, if not shut him down entirely.

Of their remaining 15 games, they have much tougher opponents in their 7 home games than in their 8 away games, and they are 3-17 in their last 20 road games.

Tonight vs Orlando is their best shot for a win for a while. I'd be surprised if they could do better than 2-5 in the next 7.

Yeah. It’s close but I’m still not overly worried yet. I could see them finishing at 7. Don’t think they’ll finish 8. Odds are still heavily favoring Memphis pick not conveying.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Orlando didn't do us any favors, blowing a 95-88 lead with 3 minutes left. Down 97-100 with 14 left to play.

Dallas is currently losing 58-54 at home to the Rockets.

edit: Memphis wins 105-97.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

If they consolidate the roster and get more top heavy, they’re also going to simply need more cost-controlled players down the road.

Kicking the can down further by trading them for top-10 or whatever protected picks is a good idea. And always have to keep in mind: there have been a lot of solid to really-good guys picked 10-20 the past few years. It’s not a guarantee, but nailing a pick in that range can really change a team’s trajectory.

I think Memphis ends up right where they are. I'd bet they limit Conley pretty soon, if not shut him down entirely.

Of their remaining 15 games, they have much tougher opponents in their 7 home games than in their 8 away games, and they are 3-17 in their last 20 road games.

Tonight vs Orlando is their best shot for a win for a while. I'd be surprised if they could do better than 2-5 in the next 7.

Their next two games are @Atlanta and @Washington. As well as they are playing now I'd be surprised to see them lose both games......damn, the way they are playing it wouldn't surprise me to see them win those two.

 

[amfox1]

6. MEM 28-40 (won tonight)
7. WAS 27-39 (lost Sat.)
8. DAL 27-39 (lost tonight)
9. NO 30-39 (lost tonight)

 

[BigSoxFan]

6. MEM 28-40 (won tonight)
7. WAS 27-39 (lost Sat.)
8. DAL 27-39 (lost tonight)
9. NO 30-39 (lost tonight)

Shouldn’t MEM and DAL be flipped?

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Shouldn’t MEM and DAL be flipped?

Yeah, they are 8th atm. 39% chance of pick conveying if season ended today.

 

[uk_sox_fan]

Could someone please indulge my laziness to not look it all up and confirm my understanding of the Memphis pick?

As I understand it in 2019 Memphis' 1R pick conveys to Boston if it's 9th or later (i.e.it's Top 8 protected). If the Memphis pick is 1-8 then Boston gets the Grizzlies' 2020 pick if it's 7th or later (Top 6 protected). If that one is also in the protected range, Boston gets Memphis' 2021 pick regardless of where it falls.

So the biggest risk to the pick's value to Boston or to whomever Boston trades its rights to is that Memphis picks in the protected range until they suddenly get good and go a couple rounds into the 2021 playoffs, dropping the pick that year into the mid-20's.

That about right?

 

[the moops]

Even if they suddenly get good, they are likely a low seeded playoff team. So a late teens pick at best (worst?). It is nearly impossible for a team like Memphis to go from bottom 6 one year to top 10 next year. Other teams know that and would value the unprotected pick accordingly.