Stretch Run 2017: is the glass half full or that other thing?

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I can understand the concerns about the offense. They seem to run hot and cold, and cold could easily come in a short series against a solid pitching staff.

But I don't see how their pitching isn't good enough to succeed in October. They have been one of the best pitching staffs in baseball all year. They should be able to more than hold their own against any playoff team.

How far this team goes into October is going to come down to the bats, period.

The Sox have a great starter in Sale, but if he's not presently tipping then at least his arm is tired. Kimbrel is a great closer. Pomeranz is throwing as good as any #2/3 can reasonably be expected. But realistically, the entire rest of the pitching staff has been something of a crapshoot.

Reed and Kelly are both very good when they're good. But they're not as consistent as one would like. I won't even get started on Porcello and Rodriguez. Fister's rebirth may have saved the season but his continued renaissance isn't something to be counted on in October. And while relying on Price as the 1st lefty out of the pen has some potential, he hasn't gotten any game experience pitching in that capacity yet, with two weeks to go. Maddox's fastball plays up very well out of the pen, but as a 40-man call-up he isn't exactly featured in the opposing team's scouting report. It could be a strong staff, but with Sale scuffling recently I just can't get them to be as good as they need to be for the 2017 Sox to win in the playoffs.

Because the real problem is, even if the pitching is playoff-quality, they've just not good enough to bail out the offense. The playoffs is more likely to be more similar to the pennant race than it is to be significantly different. Sale should have 21-22 wins right now; Porcello probably should have at least 12. But they don't, due to a combination of giving up homers at inopportune moments, anemic bats supporting them, base-running outs, and bullpen scuffles.

I know anything can happen in short series, but I think it's much more likely that the playoffs will feature a Sox offense that lets down their good but not perfect pitching.

Unless, of course, the Sox can grind out some tie games after 9 innings. They're golden in extras.

 

[uk_sox_fan]

Is this a team that's going to win 22 games in a row or something historic like that? No. But they're certainly capable of beating any team on any night. They've got winning records against all three of the other division leaders that they've played (Hou 2-1, Cle 4-3 and ChC 2-1) which is obviously small sample size, but equally obviously no reason to think they have no chance of advancing to the ALCS.

Sale might be showing he's human a bit more often lately as the grind of the season has taken its toll, but if there's a pitcher to trust to ramp it up for the biggest games and be superhuman when we need it I'd take him every time. Pomeranz is a worthy #2 and has been all year and I think Fister, Porcello and ERod are more solid a backend than most people think and better than anyone but the Indians and Dodgers have. The bullpen is an underrated asset and has been all season long. If Price makes the transition - and he has the tools to do so - it could be as lights out as any we've seen in these recent bullpen-dominated playoffs.

And the hitting isn't nearly as bad as the moaners on the game boards say. They're 10th in runs scored - you don't qualify that and say, "yeah but their OPS+ is lousy and they run into too many outs". They've been getting it done. Whether it's aggressive baserunning or having the most SBs of any playoff team (unless the Angels make it) they're doing something to compensate for the lack of power and are scoring enough runs to win with the pitching talent that they have.

They're 21 games over .500 people - they know how to win and have been doing it all season. Fangraphs has them as the 4th most likely team to win the Series (in a year with historic greatness in the Indians and Dodgers) with a 13.4% chance. In the preseason they were also 4th but with a 10.7% chance.

What I'm saying is this is what you should want as a fan. To be in the thick of a really exciting baseball season with a team that's one of the few with a legitimate chance to win it all. They don't have to be the favourites for it to be enjoyable - just in it with a real chance. That's what makes the stretch run and playoffs exciting and what makes being a fan pay off. Don't be one of those gloomy half-empty guys that sees all the flaws and few of the strengths - enjoy the fact that they're there and if they do well, they can play all October. Otherwise, what the hell's the point of following them at all?

 

[sean1562]

In what ways are we better than the Yankees? I look at their roster and am not sure we are the better team. Team defense?

 

[DJnVa]

In what ways are we better than the Yankees? I look at their roster and am not sure we are the better team. Team defense?

Wins and losses.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Is this a team that's going to win 22 games in a row or something historic like that? No. But they're certainly capable of beating any team on any night. They've got winning records against all three of the other division leaders that they've played (Hou 2-1, Cle 4-3 and ChC 2-1) which is obviously small sample size, but equally obviously no reason to think they have no chance of advancing to the ALCS.

I think I can recall about 10 years ago the Sox sweeping not a team that had won 22 games in a row, but one that had won 21 of 22 games in a row, including a playoff to get to the postseason, and 7 straight in the NLDS and NLCS. So how much harder can it be to beat a team who won 22 in a row?

BTW, do you know how many of the Indians wins came against teams that currently have a record above .500?

Spoiler: ?? ??

Three vs. the NYY and 1 vs. BOS

 

[sean1562]

I understand that but does our long term plan change if the yanks replace sabathia with otani next year? Do we expect better seasons next year from our "core"? Is JBJ significantly better than Aaron hicks? Bogaerts better than gregorious? I am somewhat worried about the stretch run because I look at that Yankees team and see a really solid group of players for the next few years. Especially if they can sign machado after next season

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I think I can recall about 10 years ago the Sox sweeping not a team that had won 22 games in a row, but one that had won 21 of 22 games in a row, including a playoff to get to the postseason, and 7 straight in the NLDS and NLCS. So how much harder can it be to beat a team who won 22 in a row?

BTW, do you know how many of the Indians wins came against teams that currently have a record above .500?

Spoiler: ?? ??

Three, vs. the NYY

Win number one was against the Red Sox.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I understand that but does our long term plan change if the yanks replace sabathia with otani next year? Do we expect better seasons next year from our "core"? Is JBJ significantly better than Aaron hicks? Bogaerts better than gregorious? I am somewhat worried about the stretch run because I look at that Yankees team and see a really solid group of players for the next few years. Especially if they can sign machado after next season

No. Yes. Yes. Yes.

Why is the assumption that the Yankees will get better (or maintain what could be career years) going forward while the Red Sox won't? Both rosters are on the younger side. For every Sox player having a down year now, couldn't a Yankee player do the same in the future?

 

[jon abbey]

BTW, do you know how many of the Indians wins came against teams that currently have a record above .500?

Spoiler: ?? ??

Three, vs. the NYY

Good point, but a bit misleading since KC is one game under and would be over without the four losses to CLE that were part of the streak.

 

[sean1562]

I expect Tanaka to be better next year. Right now, the Yankees top three is severino gray and Tanaka. Is that better than sale pomeranz and fister?

 

[jon abbey]

I expect Tanaka to be better next year. Right now, the Yankees top three is severino gray and Tanaka. Is that better than sale pomeranz and fister?

Tanaka might not be a Yankee next year, he can opt out and if he does, I'm not sure if NY will try to keep him.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I expect Tanaka to be better next year. Right now, the Yankees top three is severino gray and Tanaka. Is that better than sale pomeranz and fister?

You decide:
BOS: 3.29 ERA, 438.1 IP, 522 K
NYY: 3.64 ERA, 400.1 IP, 440 K

Even if you want to figure in Gray's numbers in Oakland, it changes the Yankees line to 3.60 ERA, 497 IP, 534 K. Still not demonstrably better than the three Sox you named, particularly since you're comparing a full year of Gray to a half-year of Fister.

And if you're arguing about the future, why include Fister at all? He's gone at the end of the year. David Price will be back in the rotation in 2018. He's extremely likely to be better than Fister (he has been this year in his limited action). So is EdRod. I'd bet on Porcello too.

I'm not going to argue that the Yankees won't be good next year. I'm not going to argue that the Red Sox will be significantly better than them. Both teams should be good and should be battling for the division title...just like they are now. There's no doom and gloom in either team's immediate future.

 

[sean1562]

I doubt Tanaka opts out after this season, and I think he is bound to be better next year(like Xander). I think this sox team is good but I am not sure they are a WS team this year. The Yankees def have more payroll flexibility moving forward, so I'm worried that the yanks will sign otani and then machado, moving us into a fight for the wild card for a few years

Edit: I don't think we are a sure bet for the division and don't think we are a great bet to win the series this year. The success of the Yankees this year, along with their ability to outspend us, makes me worried about our chances of winning a series with this core. I hope devers becomes a star, price returns successfully and the team proves me wrong!

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

You decide:
BOS: 3.29 ERA, 438.1 IP, 522 K
NYY: 3.64 ERA, 400.1 IP, 440 K

Even if you want to figure in Gray's numbers in Oakland, it changes the Yankees line to 3.60 ERA, 497 IP, 534 K. Still not demonstrably better than the three Sox you named, particularly since you're comparing a full year of Gray to a half-year of Fister.

And if you're arguing about the future, why include Fister at all? He's gone at the end of the year. David Price will be back in the rotation in 2018. He's extremely likely to be better than Fister (he has been this year in his limited action). So is EdRod. I'd bet on Porcello too.

I'm not going to argue that the Yankees won't be good next year. I'm not going to argue that the Red Sox will be significantly better than them. Both teams should be good and should be battling for the division title...just like they are now. There's no doom and gloom in either team's immediate future.

I can't believe you're arguing that Price will be back in 2018. He won't. Or if he is, it won't be for long.

Price will be spending all or most of 2018 recovering from the TJ surgery that he's been trying to avoid all of this season. Hopefully he pitches well enough out of the bullpen in the playoffs this October that the delay will be worth it.

Even so, there's an excellent chance that Sale, Porcello, and Pomeranz is a better top-3 than Gray, Tanaka, and Severino next year.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Win number one was against the Red Sox.

You are correct. The list I looked at only adds up to 21games.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Good point, but a bit misleading since KC is one game under and would be over without the four losses to CLE that were part of the streak.

True, but most of their wins were against shitty teams basically playing out the string, whereas the Rockies were beating bona fide playoff teams at the end of their streak.

 

[staz]

Interesting how they'll play that last reg. season series against Houston if it's Houston they'll see in the ALDS. Hope they don't need to win any of those last 4.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Interesting how they'll play that last reg. season series against Houston if it's Houston they'll see in the ALDS. Hope they don't need to win any of those last 4.

Houston is currently only one game behind Cleveland in the loss column. It will be interesting to see how they play the series as well.

 

[Pitt the Elder]

I don't have all the stats in front of me, but Mookie's performance the last ~10 days is really encouraging. He's consistently squaring up the ball, even on outs, and I think he is anecdotally and empirically playing closer to the MVP runner up he was last year then the guy who looked lost in July and August. If he keeps up this level of play, he'll be a huge asset down the stretch.

I'll dig into the stats more when I'm at my computer unless someone else wants to take a crack at it.

 

[BaseballJones]

I don't have all the stats in front of me, but Mookie's performance the last ~10 days is really encouraging. He's consistently squaring up the ball, even on outs, and I think he is anecdotally and empirically playing closer to the MVP runner up he was last year then the guy who looked lost in July and August. If he keeps up this level of play, he'll be a huge asset down the stretch.

I'll dig into the stats more when I'm at my computer unless someone else wants to take a crack at it.

And now Mookie is hurt.

But the Sox at Tampa and NY home vs Baltimore and after those three games are off the board, the Sox still have their three game lead.

I'll take it.

 

[tims4wins]

Every day that the magic number changes is a good day. It was a good weekend

 

[Stanley Steamer]

Every day that the magic number changes is a good day. It was a good weekend

Agreed. That's the nice part about playing with a lead. In the Yanks game thread, they're already sounding resigned to playing the wild card game. I'm not there yet, but if that attitude can seep into the NYY dugout, I'm all for it. We'll see where things stand after this next series.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Agreed. That's the nice part about playing with a lead. In the Yanks game thread, they're already sounding resigned to playing the wild card game. I'm not there yet, but if that attitude can seep into the NYY dugout, I'm all for it. We'll see where things stand after this next series.

I have no idea why they would be resigned to playing the wild card. They have an incredibly favorable schedule the final two weeks--only one road series, and that against a very weak team. The best team on their remaining dance card is Minnesota, not exactly a juggernaut. The Sox are probably going to have to play above .500 the rest of the way to win the division--certainly feasible, and I think they'll manage it, but it's very far from a sure thing with their schedule.

 

[AB in DC]

I think the key words there are "game thread".

 

[jon abbey]

538 has the Sox with a 81 percent chance to win the division, which seems roughly right to me. One thing is that Toronto always plays NY tough (up 7-6 in the season series this year) and I don't think that will change because it's the final two weeks and they're basically eliminated.

 

[Murderer's Crow]

I have no idea why they would be resigned to playing the wild card. They have an incredibly favorable schedule the final two weeks--only one road series, and that against a very weak team. The best team on their remaining dance card is Minnesota, not exactly a juggernaut. The Sox are probably going to have to play above .500 the rest of the way to win the division--certainly feasible, and I think they'll manage it, but it's very far from a sure thing with their schedule.

By "they" do you mean the 4 of us? I don't think anyone is resigned. It's a battle that favors the Sox but the team is playing really really well right now. I agree with Jon and 538. 20% shot sounds about right.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

538 has the Sox with a 81 percent chance to win the division, which seems roughly right to me. One thing is that Toronto always plays NY tough (up 7-6 in the season series this year) and I don't think that will change because it's the final two weeks and they're basically eliminated.

Absent concrete & specific evidence accounting for why Toronto would play NY tougher than most other teams, I don't see why the 7-6 record is predictive of anything. If I had never heard of the gambler's fallacy, I'd say it was an argument that the Yankees are even more likely to win since they've underperformed to their talent advantage so far.

 

[Murderer's Crow]

Absent concrete & specific evidence accounting for why Toronto would play NY tougher than most other teams, I don't see why the 7-6 record is predictive if anything. If I had never heard of the gambler's fallacy, I'd say it was an argument that the Yankees are even more likely to win since they've underperformed to their talent advantage so far.

Assuming you put some money down on the Orioles this weekend, then?

 

[jon abbey]

Absent concrete & specific evidence accounting for why Toronto would play NY tougher than most other teams, I don't see why the 7-6 record is predictive if anything. If I had never heard of the gambler's fallacy, I'd say it was an argument that the Yankees are even more likely to win since they've underperformed to their talent advantage so far.

TOR went 13-6 vs NY in 2015 and 12-7 in 2016 too, if that helps. Personnel of course is always in flux, but TOR just seems to play a bit better than they should against NY, and NY plays a little worse.

 

[Rough Carrigan]

I doubt Tanaka opts out after this season, and I think he is bound to be better next year(like Xander). I think this sox team is good but I am not sure they are a WS team this year. The Yankees def have more payroll flexibility moving forward, so I'm worried that the yanks will sign otani and then machado, moving us into a fight for the wild card for a few years

Edit: I don't think we are a sure bet for the division and don't think we are a great bet to win the series this year. The success of the Yankees this year, along with their ability to outspend us, makes me worried about our chances of winning a series with this core. I hope devers becomes a star, price returns successfully and the team proves me wrong!

Why is Tanaka bound to be better next season? Why is that more likely than his arm slipping just a little further and him getting hit just a little more?

 

[Murderer's Crow]

Why is Tanaka bound to be better next season? Why is that more likely than his arm slipping just a little further and him getting hit just a little more?

His terrible May destroyed his numbers but he has mostly been himself for 2+ months with August at a 2.63era.

 

[Pandemonium67]

One thing about the Cleveland streak is that it magnifies the importance of the Astros' four-game set at Fenway to end the season. Houston will not be in relax mode.

I think the Sox-Yanks race is going right down to the wire. I do not like that we end with Houston.

 

[BaseballJones]

Boston has played some of the best baseball in the majors since July 30. On that date, they were 57-49. Since then, they've gone 29-15 (.659), which is the second best record in all of baseball, behind only Cleveland (tough to match a team that wins 22 straight).

They've now gone 9-3 in their last 12, including wins in 11, 15, and 19 innings.

They've outscored their opponents 76-38 during this 12-game stretch, for an average game of 6.3 to 3.2.

For a team that has had most of us incredibly frustrated much of the year, they're playing really well at the right time.

And as nervous as we are getting with the Yankees putting the pedal to the metal these past two weeks, over the last 12 games, the Sox have actually gained a half-game in the standings. The last six games, both teams have been separated by exactly 3.0 games, each winning and losing on the same exact nights.

Right now, this is basically the definition of holding another team off.

 

[ehaz]

14-3 now in extra inning games?? Does Farrell get any credit for that? /ducks

 

[wilked]

Pom going tonight vs Gascan... Sale tomorrow. I think I am firmly in the 'optimist' seat at this point. They are set up well to win the division. This team has shown a knack for finding a way to win, I'll take my chances vs Houston in ALDS. Beyond that, worry about that when the time comes

 

[JimD]

9-3 since the sign-stealing controversy began.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Interesting note found on twitter, one that speaks to the resiliency of the team and perhaps a bit to the offense, which even with its flaws has come through late in so many games.
Red Sox Notes @SoxNotes
The Red Sox lead the majors with 16 wins when tied or trailing after 8 innings.

 

[garlan5]

Not sure if this is the best place but I couldnt find any info anywhere else on Pedey after last night face foul.

 

[lexrageorge]

I personally think an old fashioned division pennant race with the team's #1 rival, a race that may very well close with the Sox facing one of the premier AL teams, is something to be relished, not feared. Exorcising the demons that are Showalter and the Orioles would be a great way to kick off the stretch drive.

The bullpen is working well as a unit, especially during the long extra inning road games. Having Price and Smith back there could be huge for this team these next 2 weeks, and the playoffs as well (assuming either one makes the ALDS roster). Playoffs can be a crap shoot, but winning the first game of the opening series will be crucial for this team.

As for Sale's usage, I'm confident they would pitch him against the Astros final game if the division berth is on the line.

 

[Ted Cox 4 president]

I've been very impressed with the way that Swihart has come in late in tied games and under a lot of pressure and done a decent job. I'm also hopeful about Carson Smith, although his availability may be limited, as may Price's.

 

[chrisfont9]

14-3 now in extra inning games?? Does Farrell get any credit for that? /ducks

Ha! Yes, for managing the team into 17 extra inning games.

 

[chrisfont9]

Carson Smith's velocity seems to be coming back up, and the movement on his pitches last night was amazing. With Price in the pen, serving as a long option if any starter comes out shaky in a postseason game (or even a key stretch run game) the depth of the pitching is turning into a big positive. Adding in Porcello's still uneven but generally better run, and the youngsters hitting uptick, and things are no longer falling apart, with the possible exception of Fister. I doubt Swihart makes a postseason roster but he's looking intriguing to me.

 

[TFisNEXT]

Carson Smith's velocity seems to be coming back up, and the movement on his pitches last night was amazing. With Price in the pen, serving as a long option if any starter comes out shaky in a postseason game (or even a key stretch run game) the depth of the pitching is turning into a big positive. Adding in Porcello's still uneven but generally better run, and the youngsters hitting uptick, and things are no longer falling apart, with the possible exception of Fister. I doubt Swihart makes a postseason roster but he's looking intriguing to me.

Carson Smith and Price definitely deepen the bullpen significantly from what it looked like about 2-3 weeks ago. It's a shame Fister seems to be turning back into a pumpkin this month, but he gave us a massive lift when the rest of the staff was really struggling a bit. He was a huge part of the successful August the Red Sox had. However, in addition to Porcello's mild rebound to offset Fister, ERod is quietly having himself a nice September...so if he is starting to get into one of his grooves, that's a great asset behind Sale/Pom in the playoff rotation. He's gone 2.55 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 24K in 17.2 IP so far this month, so hopefully that is a preview of how he continues to pitch.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

So I don't know much more half-full it can get than two straight extra-inning wins on the road in the final two weeks, against a team that has kicked your ass all year, while the team chasing you is winning (Yanks haven't nailed down tonight's game as I write this, but they're ahead in the 8th).

I mean, at the risk of jinxing it, this is starting to feel like the anti-2011.

 

[BaseballJones]

Two more games down, status quo. Has to be frustrating for Yankees fans to see the Sox win these crazy extra inning games.

Screw 'em.

Sox 4-1 on this road trip so far. Would be SO sweet to win this finale against the Orioles and go into Cincy with serious momentum.

Bos 87-64
NYY 84-67

11 games remaining. Sox have 4 road and 7 home games left. NYY has 8 home and 3 road games left.

If the Sox go 7-4, NY has to go 10-1 to tie. Winning tonight with Sale would be huge.

 

[Average Reds]

Carson Smith's velocity seems to be coming back up, and the movement on his pitches last night was amazing. With Price in the pen, serving as a long option if any starter comes out shaky in a postseason game (or even a key stretch run game) the depth of the pitching is turning into a big positive. Adding in Porcello's still uneven but generally better run, and the youngsters hitting uptick, and things are no longer falling apart, with the possible exception of Fister. I doubt Swihart makes a postseason roster but he's looking intriguing to me.

I think Smith may have gone through a "dead arm" period as he was building up arm strength and has now moved past it. (Well, I hope he has moved past it.) If so, we have one hell of a pen for the postseason, even if Price moves back into the rotation.

 

[DJnVa]

If the Sox go 7-4, NY has to go 10-1 to tie. Winning tonight with Sale would be huge.

And in the "it really doesn't matter WC race" the Sox are 10.5 up on Angels with 11 to play.

 

[JimD]

And in the "it really doesn't matter WC race" the Sox are 10.5 up on Angels with 11 to play.

The play-in game would be a massive come-down for Sox fans right now, but man, we all would have loved that opportunity for one more game in 2011.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

It's too bad DDom can't put together a bullpen. In September, the Red Sox bullpen has thrown 75 innings with a 2.28 ERA, fourth-best in the majors.

More impressively, over the last 13 games (Red Sox are 10-3),the bullpen has thrown 63 innings with 16 walks, 80 strikeouts, a 1.29 ERA and a .168 average against.

Wow.

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/2017/09/red_sox_bullpen_backs_drew_pomeranz_in_extra_innings_shutout_of_orioles

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

If the Sox go 7-4, NY has to go 10-1 to tie.

And for the "glass half empty" folks, if the Sox go 4-7, NY has to go 7-4 to tie. Two days ago, you could come up with a scenario where the Sox could play pretty well and it would still take only ordinary heroics for the Yanks to catch them; it's now approaching the point where the Sox can play pretty badly and still force the Yankees to stay hot to have a chance.