Stretch Run 2017: is the glass half full or that other thing?

Stanley Steamer

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I came to the main board looking for chat about the rest of the season, and found that all the discussion was going on in the game thread, hours later. I thought it might be good to start a new thread to follow the stretch run, game after game. Here you can truly learn if you are "doom and gloom", or "pie-eyed optomist".

Where are we now?

The Red Sox are 83-63, with 9 left away, 7 at home, playing @TB,@BAL,@CIN,TOR,HOU.
The Yankees are 80-66, with 3 away, 13 at home, playing BAL, MIN,@TOR, KC x 1,TB,TOR.

I've been hearing talk about how Baltimore lays down for the Yanks, while playing us tough. I don't think it's intentional, just how they match up. And of course, the Showalters only need look back to this spring for some fresh perceived slights. Anyway, respective play against the O's could play large in the outcome.
I don't know. I'm a bit nervous. The Yanks are good, and finally appear to be figuring it out. I see them finishing strong. But the Sox have been amazingly resilient, finding ways to win when it starts to look like they aren't that good. To bet against them somehow doesn't give them enough credit.
So, both are near locks for the playoffs, and of course we want to win the division. But if you think about it, it's only the difference between 1 and 3 guaranteed games. Someone tonight posted that a tie might be the worst outcome-- playing first in Yankee Stadium, and if we lose, burning another starter against the Twins.
Anyway, we don't play to lose, and by that time, all bets are off.
3 games up, 16 to go.
Will it be enough?
 

jon abbey

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BAL has indeed played terribly in their seven games so far in NY (1-6) and giving up a hard-to-believe 81 runs in those 7 games, but they won the season series in BAL against NY 5-4.

Also, for as badly as BAL has played in NY so far, TOR has played NY much tougher than they have BOS, 4-12 against BOS (3 left) and 7-6 against NY (6 left).
 

AB in DC

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Yankees having 13 of 16 at home makes me say...that other thing. And if the Astros are still fighting for HFA that final week, that will make life very difficult for the Sox.

Right now my gut says that the Sox are 50-50 at best to win the division. (Remember NY has the tiebreaker advantage)
 

BaseballJones

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Purely based on home-road winning percentage so far (rounding up wherever possible)....

Boston home: .622 x 7 games = 4 wins, 3 losses
Boston road: .514 x 9 games = 5 wins, 4 losses
TOTAL: 9-7, for a final record of 92-70

NY home: .603 x 13 = 8 wins, 5 losses
NY road: .500 x 3 = 2 wins, 1 loss
TOTAL: 10-6, for a final record of 90-72
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I'm nervously optimistic.... just when it looks like ALL the Killer B's are about to break it open and get into a groove they get shut out by a thoroughly average pitcher and go into a funk for a few days.
I'm betting on the Sox winning the division by 2... but I think we'll be getting bumped out in 5 from Houston.
 

Plympton91

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I'm nervously optimistic.... just when it looks like ALL the Killer B's are about to break it open and get into a groove they get shut out by a thoroughly average pitcher and go into a funk for a few days.
I'm betting on the Sox winning the division by 2... but I think we'll be getting bumped out in 5 from Houston.
Game 5 would be Chris Sale against someone nowhere near as good as Chris Sale. I'll be pleased to get that far.

The Yankees worry me a lot. I think they've underperformed some with Betances and Chapman's control problems and Tanaka's Jeckel and Hyde season. I could see them running off 8 a bunch in a row now that Judge is hot again and making this really close.

Hopefully the Sox can take care of business themselves. Pedal to the metal.
 

Humphrey

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Half full guy here.

Cleveland has as much of a lead over Houston as Boston does over NY. In fact, an extra game when all is said and done because the Indians beat Houston 5 out of 6 this year. Things should work out. Boston is playing weaker teams for the most part.

That would make the semis Cleveland vs NY/Minn and Boston vs Houston. ...and if NY is good enough to beat the Indians, Sox have home field.
 

drbretto

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Half empty here. And I'm generally a pretty positive guy. This season has felt like it was doomed all year. They've shown flashes of being a really good team, but they have not been able to maintain any kind of consistency the entire season. Mainly offensively.

I put it at about 50/50 that they hold on for the division, but if they win any series in the playoffs, it'll be because they happened to be hot that week, and they've not show any indication that they won't be cold as ice the following week. There's something missing on this team. They have most of the ingredients, but there's just something missing.
 

Salem's Lot

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Yankees having 13 of 16 at home makes me say...that other thing. And if the Astros are still fighting for HFA that final week, that will make life very difficult for the Sox.

Right now my gut says that the Sox are 50-50 at best to win the division. (Remember NY has the tiebreaker advantage)
I don't believe that the tiebreaker comes into play anymore since the addition of the Wild Card Game. I think any tie in the division would require a game 163 tie breaker game to see who goes on to the ALDS and who plays in the WC game.
 

BaseballJones

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It feels like the Red Sox just haven't been very good this year, but then I look up and they're 20 games over .500, on pace for 92 wins in a tough division, and the conclusion can only be that they're pretty darned good.
 

JimD

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The Yankees worry me a lot. I think they've underperformed some with Betances and Chapman's control problems and Tanaka's Jeckel and Hyde season. I could see them running off 8 a bunch in a row now that Judge is hot again and making this really close.
We all should be worried. Baseball Prospectus's adjusted standings have the Yankees with a third-order adjusted winning percentage of .638 (93.2 wins) vs. their actual winning percentage of .548 (80-66). The Sox have actually overperformed their expected record by two games. New York should be running away with this division.
 

Zososoxfan

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[snip] But the Sox have been amazingly resilient, finding ways to win when it starts to look like they aren't that good. To bet against them somehow doesn't give them enough credit.
I've counted this team out several times this year, but you have to give them credit for that resiliency. The Rays have completely tanked the second half, and taking 2/3 should be easy, and I could easily see a sweep if Pom had lined up in addition to Sale, and still might. The Showalters may play the Sox tough, but they are 2-8 in their last 10 and already looking forward to golf season at this point. @Cincy will be interesting with the loss of the DH - not sure what happens there (5-5 in their last 10). TOR should also be looking forward to the links and I'm hoping that playoff seeding is mostly resolved by the Houston series, so that the last game or two doesn't matter.

2-1 in Tampa
2-1 in Wireland
1-2 in Cincy
3-0 vs. Taranna
2-2 vs. Houston

10-6 rendering anything short of a Cleveland-esque finish to the season by the Yanks meaningless. Give me the glass half-full!
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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It feels like the Red Sox just haven't been very good this year, but then I look up and they're 20 games over .500, on pace for 92 wins in a tough division, and the conclusion can only be that they're pretty darned good.
This is where I'm at as well. All year, we've had threads and tangents on other threads portending imminent doom for this team yet here they are, 16 games left and 3 games up in the division. We bemoan the offense for it's Jeckyl and Hyde nature...stone cold July then a red hot August. But the aggregate is a slightly above average team in terms of run scoring which is good enough with the second best pitching staff in the league. They might get shut down in a playoff series like they did last year (when the offense was tremendous) but they could also time one of their hot streaks and ride it to the World Series. Either way, they're a good team.

Put me in the half-full category.
 

absintheofmalaise

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I wrote about the race on the .com on Tuesday. I'm optimistic.
Like some, I like that the offense isn't relying on the home run. Doubles along with OBP and aggressive baserunning win games too.
 

Wallball Tingle

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I don't believe that the tiebreaker comes into play anymore since the addition of the Wild Card Game. I think any tie in the division would require a game 163 tie breaker game to see who goes on to the ALDS and who plays in the WC game.
Right. The only advantage the tiebreaker gives the Yanks here is that Game 163 would be at the Toilet.
 

OurF'ingCity

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I'm slightly pessimistic, if only because of the more difficult schedule - I think the Sox will have to win around 2/3 of their remaining games to feel comfortable; otherwise worried it will come down to the final game, a tie-breaker game, etc.

But I also don't feel like this team is really a World Series team (I will happily eat my words if they go on a run at exactly the right time and make it there). Plus, I'm not terribly scared of a wild-card game against the Twins (or, I guess, the Angels) at home, even though I know anything can happen in a single game. And I'm also not 100% convinced the Indians will be a tougher opponent than the Astros - sure the Indians are on a really absurd streak right now but the Astros have been more consistent over the year and Indians' luck has to change some time, right?

So for all those reasons I wouldn't be particularly heartbroken if the Sox wound up losing the division (although losing it to the MFY would, needless to say, leave a bitter taste).
 

brs3

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Half Full, but that's almost always my stance. Sometimes the Sox look great, other times they look terrible. Doug Fister will probably get postseason starts, which is worrisome even though he's more than held it own. I liken him getting postseason starts to Tim Wakefield getting starts, it really can go either way.

It'd be nice if the Sox stopped killing rallies by running into outs on the bases.
 

AB in DC

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Right. The only advantage the tiebreaker gives the Yanks here is that Game 163 would be at the Toilet.
I missed that.

So, that makes October really interesting. If the Sox stick with the current rotation for the next 16 games, Chris Sale would be scheduled to pitch game 162 on Sunday. Obviously if the division races are all set by then, Sale would be saved for the playoffs. But suppose the Sox had a one-game lead on the Yankees going into that day. Do you pitch Sale to try and clinch the division? Do you hold him out and have him ready for a possible game 163? Or save him for a possible wild card game. since that's an elimination game and the other two aren't? Cuz he's only playing one of those three games (barring some massive stretch of rainouts that extend the season).
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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I missed that.

So, that makes October really interesting. If the Sox stick with the current rotation for the next 16 games, Chris Sale would be scheduled to pitch game 162 on Sunday. Obviously if the division races are all set by then, Sale would be saved for the playoffs. But suppose the Sox had a one-game lead on the Yankees going into that day. Do you pitch Sale to try and clinch the division? Do you hold him out and have him ready for a possible game 163? Or save him for a possible wild card game. since that's an elimination game and the other two aren't? Cuz he's only playing one of those three games (barring some massive stretch of rainouts that extend the season).
Have to try to win the division. The way Cleveland is playing, the consequence between winning the division and not is enormous. While the wild card game is an elimination game for the loser, it's pretty much and elimination game for an East team even if they win it after playing a game 163. They will go into a road series in Cleveland having burned two starting pitchers and likely a bullpen in tatters. Forget it.

If the Red Sox make it to game 162 with a one-game lead, they have to try to win it no matter what, because anything else puts their season in serious jeopardy. I'd think the Yankees would be favored no matter what in a game 163 at home, even with Sale pitching. If the offense doesn't play well in that game, the season is nearly as good as over no matter what.

If the Red Sox are going to end up needing to play a game 163 in the Toilet, I'd almost prefer they just not win the division and have time to set their line up for the one-game wild card. At least then, they'd go into the Cleveland series with a smidge of a chance. I said "almost" of course -- the chance to take down the Yankees for the division in Yankee stadium and win the division and send them to play a wild card game would be awesome, but a loss in that game is pretty much as good as being eliminated anyway.
 

tims4wins

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Yeah if Sale has to pitch game 162, then that means he gets bumped to game 3 of the ALDS, which sucks. But that also makes him a much better pitcher than his game 3 opponent, which means you'd have to split 2-2 in the other 4 games to advance. That's not an awful position.
 

Plympton91

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I missed that.

So, that makes October really interesting. If the Sox stick with the current rotation for the next 16 games, Chris Sale would be scheduled to pitch game 162 on Sunday. Obviously if the division races are all set by then, Sale would be saved for the playoffs. But suppose the Sox had a one-game lead on the Yankees going into that day. Do you pitch Sale to try and clinch the division? Do you hold him out and have him ready for a possible game 163? Or save him for a possible wild card game. since that's an elimination game and the other two aren't? Cuz he's only playing one of those three games (barring some massive stretch of rainouts that extend the season).
This is why I am so adamantly opposed to the gimmick game. In this situation, the Twins might have wrapped up their 5th place championship and be able to rest Berrios. Meanwhile, the obviously superior Red Sox and Yankees have to play balls to the wall to win the division. Hence, the rules give the advantage to the 5th place team. Ridiculous.
 

jon abbey

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In this situation, the Twins might have wrapped up their 5th place championship and be able to rest Berrios.
I barely follow the Twins at all, but I am pretty sure they would prefer to throw Ervin Santana in the coin flip game if possible.
 

joe dokes

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Yeah if Sale has to pitch game 162, then that means he gets bumped to game 3 of the ALDS, which sucks. But that also makes him a much better pitcher than his game 3 opponent, which means you'd have to split 2-2 in the other 4 games to advance. That's not an awful position.
I think it would be game 2 (friday) with 4 days rest if he has to pitch 162 sunday.
Which would also make him available to start game 5 on wed. the 11th.
http://m.mlb.com/postseason-schedule
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
With two weeks to go, the Red Sox are in first place, locked in a nail-biting division race with the Yankees. Both teams are replete with exciting young players, as are all their likely playoff opponents. We have the best starting pitcher and the best reliever in the league, and not only the best defensive outfield in baseball, but quite possibly the best in the history of the franchise (the qualifier there is probably necessary only to placate the ghosts of Speaker/Hooper/Duffy).

That's not a half-empty glass, a half-full glass, or even a full glass. It's an overflowing glass.
 

tims4wins

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Tonight feels like a key night. Both games up in the air. A loss combined with a MFY win would have me extremely pessimistic. A win and MFY loss would feel like we almost have it locked up. Drama!
 

BaseballJones

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Tonight feels like a key night. Both games up in the air. A loss combined with a MFY win would have me extremely pessimistic. A win and MFY loss would feel like we almost have it locked up. Drama!
A loss with Sale pitching combined with a Yankee win would be pretty bad.

And right now the Sox just blew a golden scoring opportunity and trail 3-2 while NY is up 4-2.

These last couple of weeks are going to be ulcer-inducing, aren't they?
 

Stanley Steamer

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And true to the script, the Yankees cruise to an easy victory, while the Sox do it the hard way. Still, 3 in the ninth, 1 in the 14th and 7 in the 15th tells you something about this team.
 

Monbonthbump

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64 years of watching the Red Sox have made me congenitally a half empty guy. Last night's improbable win flipped me to the half full side this morning.
 

wilked

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If you're a Yankees fan that's got to be pretty demoralizing.

11-4 in their last last 15 and still 3 games back
 

simplicio

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The amazing win this morning doesn't quite mitigate my concerns about Sale's continuing slide. Half empty for now.
 

grimshaw

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Ya the Sale thing kind of makes me nervous too. He has a 4+ ERA since August in large part due to teams he could face in the playoffs. What would people's expectations be with two Sale vs Severino or Sale vs Kluber games?

I would put them about 4-5 games under what I was expecting if they end up with 92 wins. That doesn't make them less entertaining or easy to pull for, but this is still one of the lesser Red Sox playoff teams in recent memory.

I realize penciling in any team for 96+wins is a lot, but most pundits had them as 1 or 1a in the AL with Cleveland and on paper they were as good if not better than last years team depending on how you weighed adding Sale vs. subtracting Ortiz.

I think they win the division by 2 or 3 games, but get bounced by the Indians or Yankees.
 
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streeter88

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I had a really good feeling all through August and September 2013. This is not that feeling, but today's 15 inning thriller was much needed, and hopefully the spark to get them home. Looking at the schedule, the Sox have won 7 of their last 9. Strange - it doesn't feel like it.

The biggest issue for me is there is nobody on the team I look at and think that if all else fails that guy will pick the team up. I know the pitching will be pretty good, but nail biting the entire time because the offense is so maddeningly inconsistent. I think the Sox might eke out a win, but so many ABs seem to be futile before they start, nobody seems to be able to hit with RISP (tonight's 10 for 32 was maybe 4 for 25 until the 15th inning), and almost every HR (of which there are depressingly few) seems to be a solo shot (out of 154 HRs only 70 have come with men on base). Their aggressive base running is supposedly yielding more runs, but they lead MLB in Outs on Base. The stats say the Sox are a top 10 offense by runs scored in MLB, but their team OPS is 20th or so.

Even as the media start to report on the magic number, I still feel like there is a long road ahead. But I guess we're 3 up with 15 to play, so - throwing caution to the wind - half full. I think.
 
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streeter88

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I think they win the division by 2 or 3 games, but get bounced by the Indians or Yankees.
You think they'll get to the ALCS? I think that would be a best case for this team, because they are nowhere near last year's team, which I expected to at least get to the ALCS.

So maybe I am thinking half empty after all.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Ya the Sale thing kind of makes me nervous too. He has a 4+ ERA since August in large part due to teams he could face in the playoffs.

I would put them about 5 games under what I was expecting if they end up with 92 wins. That doesn't make them less entertaining or easy to pull for, but this is still one of the lesser Red Sox playoff teams in recent memory.

I realize penciling in any team for 97 is a lot, but most pundits had them as 1 or 1a in the AL with Cleveland and on paper they were as good if not better than last years team depending on how you weighed adding Sale vs. subtracting Ortiz.

I think they win the division by 2 or 3 games, but get bounced by the Indians or Yankees.
There's no need to worry about the Yankees. If this Sox team holds on to win the AL East, they'll play the AL's second seed (Cleveland or Houston). If this Sox team loses the division, they'll play the top seed if they get through the Wild Card (again, Cleveland or Houston).

I think the Sox have a good chance to beat Minnesota in the Wild Card play-in game if the Yankees overtake them, but regardless, this Sox team is not likely to win 3-of-5 against either Houston or Cleveland in the first round of the ALDS.

The offense isn't potent enough, and the pitching isn't good enough, to break into the ALCS.
 

SouthernBoSox

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I have no expectations of a World Series and haven't since June. It's very difficult to not make an out three times in a row and that's exactly what this team has to do to score runs. Now, if Mookie, Benny, Devers all get hot at the exact same time... maybe. But that's what it's going to take. Out performance by those 3 kids.

I think they end up with the exact record as the Yankees and their horrible performance against them this year comes back and bites them.
 

grimshaw

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You think they'll get to the ALCS? I think that would be a best case for this team, because they are nowhere near last year's team, which I expected to at least get to the ALCS.

So maybe I am thinking half empty after all.
The Astros don't really have the shut down guy that scares me, so I think they can scratch some runs together.

I mean all playoff series are essentially coin flips, but recent match ups have to make us a little bit nervous. The advantage the Red Sox had for the playoffs this year was the 1-2-3 punch and it is minus David Price.
 
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pk1627

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Let's deal with the playoffs in Oct. For Sept, it seems to me the Sox have to maintain their relentless play (what a comeback last night), stay healthy and see if an elite LHP can be of help in the pen.

As far as how full the stretch drive glass is, 88% to win the division and 100% to make the post. So I'm thinking the glass is 88% full.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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I like where we're sitting a hell of a lot better than if we were the Yankees. So really no reason not to be optimistic.

As far as the playoffs are concerned, I think it all comes down to Sale. If he's Chris Fucking Sale, the Sox will compete with anyone in a 5 game series. Clearly his performance over the last month, coupled with his late season history, is reason for some level of concern. He's gotten an extra day of rest before each of his last two starts, his last start was a relatively low pitch count, and he still wasn't particularly good last night.
And to further emphasize the coin flip nature of playoff series, the Sox best hitter in the ALDS last season was Brock Holt. David Ortiz was 1 for 9. MVP runner up Mookie Betts was 2 for 10. Just get there, and anything can happen, good or bad.
 

bankshot1

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My concern is mostly two-fold: 1) Has Sale shot his load, and can he pitch effectively in the post-season, and 2) can the Sox win against good teams without a real middle of the order power hitter. We all know the challenges they've discovered with RISP.

IMO the Sox are not a WS-bound team, they're short one quality starter (Price-and yes I know his history of suck in the post-season) and Lord BABIP does not always smile kindly on stringing hits together. Earl Weaver understood the beauty of a 3-run dinger. We understand its rarity..

I think the Sox win the division, and with luck/karma can beat anyone, but its a long-shot likely caught on the warning track.

But the bar's not closed and its not last-call yet.

3/4 -filled.
 

BaseballJones

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This team is capable of beating anyone in a best 4 of 7 series. It's also capable of losing to anyone in a best 4 of 7 series.

Gotta get there first. Last night's win was, given the circumstances, pretty enormous.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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The offense isn't potent enough, and the pitching isn't good enough, to break into the ALCS.
I can understand the concerns about the offense. They seem to run hot and cold, and cold could easily come in a short series against a solid pitching staff.

But I don't see how their pitching isn't good enough to succeed in October. They have been one of the best pitching staffs in baseball all year. They should be able to more than hold their own against any playoff team.

How far this team goes into October is going to come down to the bats, period.
 

nvalvo

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This post contains a lot of obvious observations:
  • The pitching has been steadily decent-to-good. The offense has been up and down.
Mar/Apr 13-11, 3.49 ERA, .716 OPS
May 16-12, 4.13 ERA, .791 OPS
June 16-12, 3.94 ERA, .755 OPS
July 13-14, 3.13 ERA, .682 OPS
August 18-9, 4.02 ERA, .784 OPS
September, 8-5, 3.50 ERA, .714 OPS

Note that the Sox were a game under .500 in a month when their entire pitching staff threw up a 3.13 ERA.​
  • If we can pair the July pitching with the May offense, we're a championship-caliber team. If we pair the May Pitching with the July offense, we're not even close.
  • The September numbers look bad, but the recent trajectories from the main hitters are actually very encouraging. If a few guys can stay hot, we should be optimistic.
Hot
Vazquez has a 1.137 OPS in his last 6 games.
Benintendi has a 1.067 OPS in his last 6 games.
Bogaerts has a .976 OPS in his last 6 games.
Betts has a .960 OPS in his last 6 games.
Pedroia has a .952 OPS in his last 6 games.
Moreland has a .918 OPS in his last 6 games.
Bradley has an .815 OPS in his last 6 games.

Not
Devers has a .572 OPS in his last 6 games.​