In light of research suggesting that relievers and the next day’s starter benefit from working in the wake of a knuckleballer (see what I did there?),
Tim Britton of the Providence Journal
bulldozed through a lot of data to figure out if
Steven Wright’s teammates had been beneficiaries of the phenomenon.
The answer was fairly striking: “In 107 2/3 innings of relief behind Wright over the last two years, PawSox pitchers produced a 2.42 ERA and 2.85 FIP. … Based off their usual level of performance, one would expect those same relievers to submit a 3.69 ERA and 3.87 FIP over those innings. … Starters were about a half-run better in ERA and a run better in FIP [the day after] the other team had been thrown off by Wright’s knuckleball.”
In other words: Say that Wright had a 4.25 ERA and an identical FIP, and that the choice was between him and a starter with a 4.00 ERA and FIP. If that form held, a compelling case could be made for choosing Wright: The combined ERA of, say, six innings of Wright and the relievers who followed him would be expected to be better (based on this precedent) than with Wright and six innings of Starter B, and the performance of the next day’s starter might also benefit, at least in theory.
