Alex Speier's 108 Stitches newsletter had an interesting look at veteran starting pitchers in their first season in Boston.
"Since the 2004 season, the Red Sox have added nine starting pitchers with at least 100 starts in the big leagues who went on to make at least 20 starts in their first season in Boston – most recently, David Price in 2016 and Rick Porcello as well as Wade Miley in 2015. The First Year In Boston dropoff from prior career standards is eye-opening.
Every one of the nine starters in question – Price, Porcello, Miley, Ryan Dempster, John Lackey, Brad Penny, Josh Beckett, Matt Clement, and David Wells – posted an ERA in their first season with the Red Sox that was higher than their pre-Boston career norm. On average, the group’s ERA was 0.75 runs higher in their first season with the Red Sox than they’d produced in their careers to that point; the rises ranged from 0.23 runs (Clement) to 1.55 runs (Penny)."
"Some of the increase would be expected given the impact of pitching in Fenway Park and the smaller ballparks of the American League East. Nonetheless, on average, the group saw its ERA+ -- which accounts for park effects – fall by an average of 12 points.
It’s interesting to note that Price’s FYIB experience was very much in line with those standards – his ERA was 0.90 runs above his pre-Boston norm, while his ERA+ went from 126 (meaning 26 percent better than league average) to 114. In other words, Price essentially experienced a “standard” departure from the elite levels he’d established in his career, part of the reason why the Red Sox tend to consider his 3.99 ERA of 2016 a solid foundation for what they hope will be an even better second season."
"There will be an expected transition for Sale, who arrives in Boston with a career 3.00 ERA and 135 ERA+; a normal FYIB adjustment might see him with a 3.75 ERA and 123 ERA+."
Speier doesn't really offer an explanation as to what might be the cause of this FYIB Syndrome. If it is real and not just a statistical fluke, then nobody really knows what might cause it. It might be adjustment to the ballpark and division, or it might be something more nebulous, like dealing with more scrutiny and a different atmosphere in Boston. Nobody knows if it's a real thing, and if it is, nobody really knows what causes it.
But 9 out of the last 9 have taken a hit to their numbers in their first year, so it seems to me that numbers like 3.75, 123 ERA+ should be a reasonable expectation for Sale in 2017. If he does that and throws his usual 200+ innings, that would make a huge positive impact, despite those numbers being well below average for him in his career.
Or maybe he will break the streak and be the first vet starter to come here since Schilling and be better than before. I just hope the fanbase keeps expectations lower and everyone doesn't freak out if Sale has the same FYIB type of season that all the others had.
"Since the 2004 season, the Red Sox have added nine starting pitchers with at least 100 starts in the big leagues who went on to make at least 20 starts in their first season in Boston – most recently, David Price in 2016 and Rick Porcello as well as Wade Miley in 2015. The First Year In Boston dropoff from prior career standards is eye-opening.
Every one of the nine starters in question – Price, Porcello, Miley, Ryan Dempster, John Lackey, Brad Penny, Josh Beckett, Matt Clement, and David Wells – posted an ERA in their first season with the Red Sox that was higher than their pre-Boston career norm. On average, the group’s ERA was 0.75 runs higher in their first season with the Red Sox than they’d produced in their careers to that point; the rises ranged from 0.23 runs (Clement) to 1.55 runs (Penny)."
"Some of the increase would be expected given the impact of pitching in Fenway Park and the smaller ballparks of the American League East. Nonetheless, on average, the group saw its ERA+ -- which accounts for park effects – fall by an average of 12 points.
It’s interesting to note that Price’s FYIB experience was very much in line with those standards – his ERA was 0.90 runs above his pre-Boston norm, while his ERA+ went from 126 (meaning 26 percent better than league average) to 114. In other words, Price essentially experienced a “standard” departure from the elite levels he’d established in his career, part of the reason why the Red Sox tend to consider his 3.99 ERA of 2016 a solid foundation for what they hope will be an even better second season."
"There will be an expected transition for Sale, who arrives in Boston with a career 3.00 ERA and 135 ERA+; a normal FYIB adjustment might see him with a 3.75 ERA and 123 ERA+."
Speier doesn't really offer an explanation as to what might be the cause of this FYIB Syndrome. If it is real and not just a statistical fluke, then nobody really knows what might cause it. It might be adjustment to the ballpark and division, or it might be something more nebulous, like dealing with more scrutiny and a different atmosphere in Boston. Nobody knows if it's a real thing, and if it is, nobody really knows what causes it.
But 9 out of the last 9 have taken a hit to their numbers in their first year, so it seems to me that numbers like 3.75, 123 ERA+ should be a reasonable expectation for Sale in 2017. If he does that and throws his usual 200+ innings, that would make a huge positive impact, despite those numbers being well below average for him in his career.
Or maybe he will break the streak and be the first vet starter to come here since Schilling and be better than before. I just hope the fanbase keeps expectations lower and everyone doesn't freak out if Sale has the same FYIB type of season that all the others had.