Start, Sit, Trade: Play Along with Dave

mt8thsw9th

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My problem with this strategy is that I think we're nearing the point where the cure is not better than the disease. I.e., any pitcher we can get without either really decimating the farm or surrendering one of our young cornerstone players is probably not an upgrade over Buchholz, except perhaps in reliability.

*Fernandez is not a #2 in any known universe. Harvey, borderline, and probably only borderline because he pitches for a team that has two other guys who are just as good as him or better. Carrasco, sure. Or that Miller guy that E5Y just posted about.
He means a #2+behind Price. Do you prefer 1A/1B?
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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My problem with this strategy is that I think we're nearing the point where the cure is not better than the disease. I.e., any pitcher we can get without either really decimating the farm or surrendering one of our young cornerstone players is probably not an upgrade over Buchholz, except perhaps in reliability.

*Fernandez is not a #2 in any known universe. Harvey, borderline, and probably only borderline because he pitches for a team that has two other guys who are just as good as him or better. Carrasco, sure. Or that Miller guy that E5Y just posted about.
Yeah, I just meant a #2 behind Price. Syndergaard just finished up as a #3, after all. If you prefer, just think of it as "game 2 starter" instead.

As for the other part, you're probably correct. It's probably better business to simply save the bullets and use them to get a starter at the deadline, if needed. I was mostly just surprised to find the Sox were much closer to the LT cap threshold than I'd thought.
 

Mighty Joe Young

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For those wanting an update on Sandoval - here you go :

http://www.csnne.com/boston-red-sox/sandoval-working-out-hard-preparation-spring-training

"I don't know that he's ever going to be 'svelte.' But if he comes in in good condition, which I think he is at this point. He's working extremely hard. In fact, he's been doing his workouts a couple times a day. So he's got a great attitude and approach. He's in solid shape ... good shape for him. So it's really (about) to come into camp ready to go.''

The Sox are unsure whether Sandoval intends to resume switch-hitting. He abandoned hitting from the right side in May and hit exclusively lefthanded for the rest of the season.

"We really haven't discussed that one,'' said Dombrowski.

Mostly a fluff piece - standard "best shape of his career" type story. But it's the first news I've heard on Pablo in ages.
 

nvalvo

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Has he considered consuming fewer calories than he burns?
Dude has dropped 30+ pounds at least twice in his career. He knows how it's done. I gather he tends to gain weight during the season, and some off-seasons he does conditioning, but others he plays for Magallanes in the VWL.

I think it's probably good news that he isn't playing in Venezuela. I'm cautiously optimistic.
 

JimD

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Hopefully, last season was a wakeup call for Pablo. He'd always been pretty much able to do things his way and have it work out in San Francisco, plus he was beloved by many fans there thanks to his previous accomplishments. It must have been pretty embarrassing to fail so publicly in his first year with the Red Sox and become a punchline and have most of your new team's fans wish you were just shipped out of town.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Sean McAdam must be psychic...I've been wondering what's been going on with Sandoval for awhile now. From that article:

"He's been working out since the end of the season. We've had people down there (in Florida) visiting with him. (Special assistant) Allard Baird was down there last week, visiting with him. He's doing great. We look for him come into camp in shape."

Panda-weightwatching duty? Gammons might have it right about Baird being the most loyal and hardworking guy in baseball.
 

johnnywayback

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Would that be the largest trade package ever given up by any team on either side of any trade in history?

People be nuts if they think that's the sort of package a non-concussed GM would ever give up for three years of a guy coming off Tommy John surgery.
 

JimD

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In 1997 terms, that would be like sending Nomar Garciaparra and Trot Nixon to the Expos along with Rose and Pavano for Pedro.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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When I heard that the Marlins were looking for MLB-ready talent in addition to prospects, I was thinking something along the lines of Rusney (since they supposedly are looking for an OF to replace Ozuna), Owens, Kelly and one of Devers/Moncada (and maybe throw in a couple of other ml lottery tickets). Even that might be too much, though it might not be enough for the Marlins. But I don't see the Sox dealing ERod, unless no other major pieces are involved (no Espinoza, Moncado or Devers).
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
But I don't see the Sox dealing ERod, unless no other major pieces are involved (no Espinoza, Moncado or Devers).
This seems like taking prospect love (or former prospect love) to an extreme. I am a big EdRo fan. But Fernandez is already elite. His current reality is beyond EdRo's probable ceiling. He's so good that you could make a pretty good case that he'd push Price into the #2 spot. You seriously wouldn't give up one guy in our top-5 prospect tier to make that upgrade?
 

chawson

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The nice thing about Dombrowski's history with Marlins President of Baseball Ops Michael Hill is that we'll get a chance to beat a Yankee offer for Fernandez. It's one thing if he goes to LA for Urias; it's another if Cashman can get him for something like Severino/Sanchez/Bird and a subsidized Gardner. We can beat that and we should.
 

E5 Yaz

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The nice thing about Dombrowski's history with Marlins President of Baseball Ops Michael Hill is that we'll get a chance to beat a Yankee offer for Fernandez. It's one thing if he goes to LA for Urias; it's another if Cashman can get him for something like Severino/Sanchez/Bird and a subsidized Gardner. We can beat that and we should.
Why? What is three years of Fernandez worth giving up?
 

chawson

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Why? What is three years of Fernandez worth giving up?
Surely answers vary. But three years of employing a top 3 starter over a division rival is significant when you boil down the marginal win values. The Boston equivalent of that NYY package — which, again, hypothetical — is maybe something like EdRo/Vazquez/Shaw and Castillo. I think most of this board would be ok with that trade.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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The nice thing about Dombrowski's history with Marlins President of Baseball Ops Michael Hill is that we'll get a chance to beat a Yankee offer for Fernandez. It's one thing if he goes to LA for Urias; it's another if Cashman can get him for something like Severino/Sanchez/Bird and a subsidized Gardner. We can beat that and we should.
What history? Dombrowski moved to the Tigers in 2002, which was the year Hill moved from Tampa to Florida.

Edit: Which is to say nothing about the fact that even if they did work together, it doesn't necessarily mean they liked each other or it would give Dombrowski any kind of advantage.
 

moondog80

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Surely answers vary. But three years of employing a top 3 starter over a division rival is significant when you boil down the marginal win values. The Boston equivalent of that NYY package — which, again, hypothetical — is maybe something like EdRo/Vazquez/Shaw and Castillo. I think most of this board would be ok with that trade.

I think everyone would be more than OK with that trade. Except the Marlins.
 

geoduck no quahog

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Riddle me this. Fernandez is under the type of contract that a team like the Marlins creams over. So, the only way a trade makes sense is if the Marlins get back a great package of equally cost-controlled players that justifies a trade. They'd essentially be trading one guy for multiple guys - all of which need high major league upsides (and no Scott Boras).

So turn it around. Why would a team give up 3-5 of their top cost-controlled players to land one arb-eligible pitcher who they'll lose to free agency in 2019? Why is that such a good deal for the trading team AND the Marlins?

Put another way - the trading team has to assume an uninjured Fernandez is a Cy Young candidate for the next 3 years to justify a rape by the Marlins. The trading team has to assume that within those 3 years their farm system has been replenished with equally high-upside players. The trading team knows that if Fernandez is as good as they project, Boras will take him to free agency for a large fortune.

I just need to understand better why the Marlins and the (say) Astros think taking such a high risk on one pitcher is worth it. The trading team for obvious reasons, the Marlins because they only win the trade if the package means playoffs or if Fernandez screws the pooch or gets injured. So much risk on both sides.
 
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geoduck no quahog

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Let's take a look at the current AL projected rotations - to see which teams look like they need help and which teams seem pretty well set. The number 1's are quite a crop, with only the Orioles, (edit) Tigers, (edit) Royals, Angels, Twins and Blue Jays a little weak. The good looking rotations are made by the #2's and #3's. I'll look at sabremetrics later today.

What I perceive (now backed up by Steamer) is that the current Red Sox rotation, because of Price, puts them in the elite category with the (edit - in order) Indians, Yankees, White Sox and (maybe) Astros.

(edit: Best 2-3 punch: Indians, White Sox, Rangers, Yankees, Red Sox)

Didn't realize how good the Indian's staff projects (as well as the White Sox) and how badly the Blue Jays and Angels projected.

edit: to add steamer projected war - which surprised me

Red Sox: 13.4
1. David Price: 5.0
2. Clay Buchholz: 2.7
3. Rick Porcello: 2.8
4. Eduardo Rodriguez: 1.6
5. Joe Kelly: 1.3

Indians: 15.9
1. Corey Kluber: 5.2
2. Carlos Carrasco: 4.8
3. Trevor Bauer: 1.2
4. Danny Salazar: 3.2
5. Josh Tomlin: 1.5

Yankees: 13.7
1. Masahiro Tanaka: 4.1
2. Michael Pineda: 3.6
3. Nathan Eovaldi: 2.0
4. Luis Severino: 2.3
5. CC Sabathia: 1.7

White Sox: 13.5
1. Chris Sale: 5.9
2. Jose Quintana: 3.6
3. John Danks: 0.8
4. Carlos Rodon: 2.7
5. Erik Johnson: 0.5

Astors: 12.8
1. Dallas Keuchel: 4.8
2. Scott Kazmir (?): 2.5
3. Scott Feldman: 1.0
4. Collin McHugh: 2.7
5. Mike Fiers: 1.8

Mariners: 11.5
1. Felix Hernandez: 4.7
2. Taijuan Walker: 2.4
3. James Paxton: 1.2
4. Wade Miley: 1.8
5. Nate Karns: 1.4

Rays:11.2
1. Chris Archer: 4.1
2. Jake Odorizzi: 2.2
3. Drew Smyly: 2.3
4. Erasmo Ramirez: 1.3
5. Matt Moore: 1.3

Rangers: 10.5
1. Cole Hamels: 3.6
2. Yu Darvish: 4.0
3. Derek Holland: 0.1
4. Martin Perez: 2.4
5. Chi Chi Gonzalez: 0.4

A's: 9.0
1. Sonny Gray: 3.5
2. Jesse Hahn: 2.2
3. Kendall Graveman: 1.0
4. Rich Hill: 2.2
5. Jarrod Parker: 0.1

Tigers: 8.2
1. Justin Verlander: 2.3
2. Jordan Zimmermann: 2.5
3. Anibal Sanchez: 2.3
4. Daniel Norris: 1.0
5. Kyle Lobstein: 0.1

Royals: 7.8
1. Yordano Ventura: 3.3
2. Edinson Volquez: 1.7
3. Cory Wade: 0.0
4. Danny Duffy: 1.1
5. Kris Medlen: 1.7

Twins: 7.8
1. Phil Hughes: 2.0
2. Ervin Santana: 3.2
3. Kyle Gibson: 1.7
4. Ricky Nolasco: 1.1
5. Trevor May: 1.2

Blue Jays: 7.7
1. Marco Estrada: 0.6
2. R.A. Dickey: 1.1
3. Marcus Stroman: 3.4
4. J.A. Happ: 1.8
5. Drew Hutchison: 0.8

Orioles: 7.0
1. Chris Tillman: 1.5
2. Ubaldo Jimenez: 2.1
3. Miguel Gonzalez: 0.9
4. Kevin Gausman: 2.3
5. Mike Wright: 0.2

Angles: 7.0
1. Jered Weaver: 0.3
2. Garrett Richards: 3.2
3. C.J. Wilson: 1.7
4. Hector Santiago: 0.6
5. Andrew Heaney: 1.2
 
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DJnVa

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So turn it around. Why would a team give up 3-5 of their top cost-controlled players to land one arb-eligible pitcher who they'll lose to free agency in 2019? Why is that such a good deal for the trading team AND the Marlins?
Because the team trading for the single player might have some overlap of talent and be willing to deal 3 players at certain positions for more of a sure thing in an area where they do not have that talent.
 

geoduck no quahog

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Understood. The trading team's depth chart has to be deep enough to replace the traded players when they're needed...maybe 3 years down the road...maybe never.
 

NoXInNixon

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I think everyone would be more than OK with that trade. Except the Marlins.
But the Marlins aren't going to get full value for Fernandez if they trade him, and all of their trading partners know it. The Red Sox don't have to put a package together that makes the trade fair. They just have to come up with a package better than everyone else's. Which they can and should. Any package based around two of (EdRo, Espinoza, Moncada, Devers) with a few other pieces thrown in should be better than what most other teams would be able to match.
 

NoXInNixon

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I just need to understand better why the Marlins and the (say) Astros think taking such a high risk on one pitcher is worth it. The trading team for obvious reasons, the Marlins because they only win the trade if the package means playoffs or if Fernandez screws the pooch or gets injured. So much risk on both sides.
There must be some behind the scenes issue between Fernandez and the team that is essentially forcing their hands. He's so unhappy with them or they're so unhappy with him, or both, that he needs a change of scenery. That's the only situation where I could imagine them even considering trade talks.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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But the Marlins aren't going to get full value for Fernandez if they trade him, and all of their trading partners know it. The Red Sox don't have to put a package together that makes the trade fair. They just have to come up with a package better than everyone else's. Which they can and should. Any package based around two of (EdRo, Espinoza, Moncada, Devers) with a few other pieces thrown in should be better than what most other teams would be able to match.
This assumes that the Marlins want to trade Fernandez and thus have to take the "highest bid" in order to do so. All indications are that the Marlins have no interest in moving Fernandez at this time (and why should they, he's got three years of relatively cheap control left).

So for now, the equation as far as what it is going to take to get Fernandez has to begin with "what will it take to get the Marlins to actually consider moving the player?" Simply making a best competing bid plus one kind of offer isn't going to cut it yet.
 

NoXInNixon

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This assumes that the Marlins want to trade Fernandez and thus have to take the "highest bid" in order to do so. All indications are that the Marlins have no interest in moving Fernandez at this time (and why should they, he's got three years of relatively cheap control left).

So for now, the equation as far as what it is going to take to get Fernandez has to begin with "what will it take to get the Marlins to actually consider moving the player?" Simply making a best competing bid plus one kind of offer isn't going to cut it yet.
Actually, all indications are that more than one team has already started due diligence on Fernandez, which means they think a deal with them is possible. And as has been noted, the only way Fernandez is getting moved is if the Marlins get ripped off. Sure, they're saying publicly that they have no interest in trading him, or that it would take 5 or 6 great young players. That's what they have to say publicly. But privately, if the Yankees think they even have a remote shot of getting him, the price has got to be a lot lower than that.
 

soxhop411

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They also crossed paths on Aroldis Chapman. Before trading for Craig Kimbrel, the Red Sox were interested, but had some information about a domestic abuse charge in Miami, refused the Reds’ ask of Yoan Moncada and saw Dave Dombrowski quickly move on to Kimbrel. Then Monday, when the Dodgers thought they had a deal to get Chapman and try to close off the final 6-9 outs of games with Kanley Jansen and Chapman—both in their free agent walk years, an uncomfortable situation despite its logic—when the story of Chapman’s charges arose.

http://www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-dombrowski-ensuring-an-equiped-red-sox-pitching-staff/

That seems like an insane price for someone who is a FA in a year.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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This seems like taking prospect love (or former prospect love) to an extreme. I am a big EdRo fan. But Fernandez is already elite. His current reality is beyond EdRo's probable ceiling. He's so good that you could make a pretty good case that he'd push Price into the #2 spot. You seriously wouldn't give up one guy in our top-5 prospect tier to make that upgrade?
I'd give up one of the top guys (ERod, Moncado, Devers, Espinoza), but not more than one. And certainly not Betts or Xander.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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This assumes that the Marlins want to trade Fernandez and thus have to take the "highest bid" in order to do so. All indications are that the Marlins have no interest in moving Fernandez at this time (and why should they, he's got three years of relatively cheap control left).
I would argue that even further it assumes the Marlins feel they *need* to trade him. Which they quite obviously don't. This is certainly not one of those situations where just beating the best offer from someone else is going to get it done.

Actually, all indications are that more than one team has already started due diligence on Fernandez, which means they think a deal with them is possible. And as has been noted, the only way Fernandez is getting moved is if the Marlins get ripped off. Sure, they're saying publicly that they have no interest in trading him, or that it would take 5 or 6 great young players. That's what they have to say publicly. But privately, if the Yankees think they even have a remote shot of getting him, the price has got to be a lot lower than that.
Due diligence is just that - due diligence. It implies nothing to the actual availability of or motivation to move a player. We've heard that teams have been asking about X or Betts for a while now, but that doesn't mean either is actually available. Good GMs check in on everyone. No one ever thought Donaldson would be available last year, but teams still checked in on him, as witnessed by quotes from Cherington saying he called and was told he wasn't available. I'd wager DiPoto got some calls on Trout over the years and ditto for every other GM with a young, valuable player.

I'm not sure who you are citing with the bolded, but I would certainly argue that it's the exact opposite - he's only getting moved if the Marlins rip off another team and frankly thats the way it should be. I'm also not sure where you are getting that the Yankees think they have a shot of getting him. If you're citing the ESPN article, all I can tell you is relying on Marchand is about as reliable as relying on Cafardo. Which is to say nothing of the fact that his article suggest they should go after him, not that they plan to.
 

NoXInNixon

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Papelbon's Poutine

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Not Marchand, but Stark. Four teams have talked to the Marlins. That's at least some smoke.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14320064/unidentified-fourth-team-enters-trade-talks-miami-marlins-ace-jose-fernandez
OK, but I'm still not sure that even qualifies as smoke. They talked to them.

Cashman: "Hey, Mike. Fernandez? What are you looking for?"
Hill: "You don't have enough Brian. Your farm system sucks."
Cashman: "OK. See you at the buffet later."

It's the Winter Meetings. A lot of guys are going to talk about a lot of players. 95% of it will end up meaning nothing. If you want to take from Stark's report the the Yankees are legitimately making a move, sure, that's reasonable, albeit probably presumptuous. Taking the further leap that it means that the Marlins are going to sell short and take a beating on the return, that's more than a bridge too far, IMO.
 

MikeM

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When I heard that the Marlins were looking for MLB-ready talent in addition to prospects, I was thinking something along the lines of Rusney (since they supposedly are looking for an OF to replace Ozuna), Owens, Kelly and one of Devers/Moncada (and maybe throw in a couple of other ml lottery tickets). Even that might be too much, though it might not be enough for the Marlins. But I don't see the Sox dealing ERod, unless no other major pieces are involved (no Espinoza, Moncado or Devers).
Personally, I can't see a hypothetical scenario where the Marlins wouldn't insist on our best young arm coming back as the Fernandez replacement. Or where we ultimately end up thinking it makes sense to completely swallow the money/sacrifice we just paid out to acquire Moncada, and which you essentially have to tack on to how much value you project to be getting back in 3 years of Fernandez.

ERod/Castillo/Owens/Devers and some additional throw in value is probably more in line with a reality offer here, but even then I would still guess the Marlins choose to keep him.
 

DanoooME

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I'd give up one of the top guys (ERod, Moncado, Devers, Espinoza), but not more than one. And certainly not Betts or Xander.
I'd give up Devers and Espinoza in a heartbeat. They are both so far away and the error bars so large for what they could end up being. They could be the next Griffey and Gooden. They could also be the next Engel Beltre and Abe Alvarez too.
 

H78

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I would like to freely admit that I have no idea why people are so optimistic that Clay Buchholz is going to be a reliable #2 behind Price.

I would like to see the Sox add a true, at least somewhat reliable #2 behind Price. We have the 1A, but if we get the 1B then I think we're truly in a position to vie for a pennant. Clay has never been the top-of-the-rotation guy we've wanted him to be in Boston, relying on him to more or less be that (or at least close to that) now makes no sense to me. At this point he feels like a high ceiling #3 more than a reliable #2. We're one more predictable Clay injury/meltdown away from having to rely on Porcello against a pitcher the caliber of Zimmermann, Kazmir, Santana, Pineda, or Darvish...likely twice in a long series.

Fernandez is exactly the kind of guy I would love to see behind Price. Young, cost controlled, low mileage, 1.01 WHIP, 3.95/1 K/BB. If we can get him without giving up Mookie, X, or Moncada, why wouldn't we? He's proven and he's a stud. If he can be had without giving up core pieces, pull the trigger.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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Fernandez is exactly the kind of guy I would love to see behind Price. Young, cost controlled, low mileage, 1.01 WHIP, 3.95/1 K/BB. If we can get him without giving up Mookie, X, or Moncada, why wouldn't we? He's proven and he's a stud. If he can be had without giving up core pieces, pull the trigger.
Read the MLB forums to see what Miami is looking for. They'll want Mookie, X, and Moncada.
http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/winter-meetings-rumor-thread.12087/page-2#post-1498696
 

geoduck no quahog

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I've been looking at Steamer projections for another thread, so:

Who's the only AL Team with an equally good #2? Indians (Carrasco).

Fernandez is projected at 4.9 WAR (.1 above Carrasco). The next 3 tie at 3.6 (Quintana, Pineda and Hamels).

Just seems unnecessarily greedy to me.
 

H78

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Of course that's what they're going to ask for, just as they should as a starting point. No one is going to give them anything close to that. If, somehow, the FO can get insight into what other teams are offering, you'd have to think we have the other pieces to make it happen given the depth we have in the minors. If, say, Kelly, Devers, ERod - maybe Rusney - and a couple of "B" prospect can get it done, I'd have to consider that if I'm DD.

But to your point - if the Marlins are serious about something along the X+Mook+Moncada lines, then of course you hang up the phone and put a block on all future incoming calls.

Edit: If I'm considering giving up Mook or X, I'm getting King Felix in return.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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I would like to freely admit that I have no idea why people are so optimistic that Clay Buchholz is going to be a reliable #2 behind Price.

I would like to see the Sox add a true, at least somewhat reliable #2 behind Price. We have the 1A, but if we get the 1B then I think we're truly in a position to vie for a pennant. Clay has never been the top-of-the-rotation guy we've wanted him to be in Boston, relying on him to more or less be that (or at least close to that) now makes no sense to me. At this point he feels like a high ceiling #3 more than a reliable #2. We're one more predictable Clay injury/meltdown away from having to rely on Porcello against a pitcher the caliber of Zimmermann, Kazmir, Santana, Pineda, or Darvish...likely twice in a long series.
Have you totally foreclosed the possibility of picking up a pitcher mid-season, like Hamels to the Rangers or Cueto to the Royals? Or of pitchers taking a big step forward after years of struggling, like Arrieta or Keuchel?

Winning last offseason by picking up Hanley, Panda, and Porcello should remind us that the Sox don't need to worry about the pitcher starting game 2 of the playoffs, until they're actually in the playoffs.

Picking up Fernandez now would, of course, seem to make getting into the playoffs that much easier...but with DDski having fixed the true holes on the Sox, the team doesn't necessarily need to mortgage the farm to do so.
 

Adrian's Dome

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Of course that's what they're going to ask for, just as they should as a starting point. No one is going to give them anything close to that. If, somehow, the FO can get insight into what other teams are offering, you'd have to think we have the other pieces to make it happen given the depth we have in the minors. If, say, Kelly, Devers, ERod - maybe Rusney - and a couple of "B" prospect can get it done, I'd have to consider that if I'm DD.

But to your point - if the Marlins are serious about something along the X+Mook+Moncada lines, then of course you hang up the phone and put a block on all future incoming calls.

Edit: If I'm considering giving up Mook or X, I'm getting King Felix in return.
You'd rather have Felix than Fernandez? And you'd give up Mookie or X for him, but not for Jose?

If the Marlins called and said "EdRod, Moncada, Owens" I'd think long and hard about it. Any more than that would probably equal dial tone.
 

Hank Scorpio

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Edit: If I'm considering giving up Mook or X, I'm getting King Felix in return.
Maybe I'm alone here, but: 1) I'd rather trade for Fernandez than Hernandez and 2) I wouldn't give up a lot for King Felix at this point, who had his share of struggles last season. He's expensive and there are a ton of miles on his arm, and I'd be worried about his injury/decline risk in coming seasons, not to mention changing home ballparks and divisions. Not to say he wouldn't be worth his contract, but I'm not giving up Betts or Bogaerts to take that chance. There are better pitchers with less risk and better contracts that could be had for those guys.
 

H78

Fists of Millennial Fury!
SoSH Member
Jul 22, 2009
4,613
You'd rather have Felix than Fernandez? And you'd give up Mookie or X for him, but not for Jose?

If the Marlins called and said "EdRod, Moncada, Owens" I'd think long and hard about it. Any more than that would probably equal dial tone.
I think I would rather have Felix solely because of how reliable he's proven to be the last 10 or so years. He has milage on the arm, but that can be looked at two ways: 1) He's apt to break down; 2) He's reliable and a workhorse. Since 2006 he's started at least 30 games every year with at least 190IP. He has four years remaining on his deal, which will be his age 30, 31, 32, and 33 years, at $25m, $26m, $26m, and $27m, respectively. He posted a 3.53 last year, but his BAA was .240, his lowest since 2010 sans 2014, when he had a ridiculous .200 BAA. In other words, he's still missing bats, which is backed up pretty well by his 0.95 K/9 last year.

I think he's a phenomenal value given the remainder of his contract should run through the remainder of his prime years. Would I give up one of X or Mookie for that? I mean...maybe. Mookie would give me serious pause, but X for Felix? I'd have to think about it, but I it would be really tempted to trade what's still only potential for four years of what's very likely to be consistently dominant and reliable performance from the #2 spot. Price and Felix for the next four years would be insane.
 
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HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
We're one more predictable Clay injury/meltdown away from having to rely on Porcello against a pitcher the caliber of Zimmermann, Kazmir, Santana, Pineda, or Darvish...likely twice in a long series.
This is the beauty of not having to submit our post-season roster until the first week in October. ;)

We have a number of in-house options who could emerge in our rotation and up until the trade deadline to evaluate and address what is needed for the stretch run.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
53,841
We're one more predictable Clay injury/meltdown away from having to rely on Porcello against a pitcher the caliber of Zimmermann, Kazmir, Santana, Pineda, or Darvish...likely twice in a long series.
If we're at the point of wondering who to matchup against Zimmerman or Darvish in the postseason, you have to think that someone behind Price stepped up and had a pretty good year. Because if no one did, we won't be having that talk.
 

bankshot1

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 12, 2003
24,652
where I was last at
I usually don't play GM, but last night's Zobrist to the Cubs got me to thinking. The Mets were high on Zobrist to replace Murphy at 2nd, and maybe for Zobrist's versatility at playing other positions (3rd, OF etc.). But Zobrist signs for 4/56, Murphy probably wants something like that too, maybe 4/50, but he's clearly a fall-back for the Mets, if they really wanted him they would have gone after him a little harder. So are there other less costly options for the bargain-seeking Mets?

What's the fit of our Zobrist-lite, Brock Holt for the role? He's not the player that Zobrist is, or has power that Murphy discovered, but he's got versatility in spades can play several positions, offer some insurance if Wright gets hurt again, and he doesn't hit FA until 2020 so he fits the Mets budget for a few seasons. and he's blocked about everywhere in Boston. I like Brock, but he may have a lot of value outside of Boston.

Is it remotely reasonable to think DD pitch a package of Brock Star with prospects to land a Met SP, (not one of the Big-3) but Neise, or Matz?

I'll hang-up and listen.
 

Bowlerman9

bitchslapped by Keith Law
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Feb 1, 2003
5,227
I usually don't play GM, but last night's Zobrist to the Cubs got me to thinking. The Mets were high on Zobrist to replace Murphy at 2nd, and maybe for Zobrist's versatility at playing other positions (3rd, OF etc.). But Zobrist signs for 4/56, Murphy probably wants something like that too, maybe 4/50, but he's clearly a fall-back for the Mets, if they really wanted him they would have gone after him a little harder. So are there other less costly options for the bargain-seeking Mets?

What's the fit of our Zobrist-lite, Brock Holt for the role? He's not the player that Zobrist is, or has power that Murphy discovered, but he's got versatility in spades can play several positions, offer some insurance if Wright gets hurt again, and he doesn't hit FA until 2020 so he fits the Mets budget for a few seasons. and he's blocked about everywhere in Boston. I like Brock, but he may have a lot of value outside of Boston.

Is it remotely reasonable to think DD pitch a package of Brock Star with prospects to land a Met SP, (not one of the Big-3) but Neise, or Matz?

I'll hang-up and listen.
The Mets would give you Niese for Holt in a cocaine heartbeat. They want out from that contract in the worst way. What would the Sox do with him? They dont need a league average SP making $10M.

You'd have to throw in a mighty good prospect, or quite possibly Bradley if you want Matz.
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
55,298
deep inside Guido territory
I would do Bradley for Matz straight up in a second. Matz is a power lefty who is just coming into his own and is not a free agent until 2022(for comparison's sake Bradley is a FA in 2021). STEAMER projectes him for a 3.66 FIP and 2.3 WAR while Bradley projects for 2.6 WAR. To bridge the difference in WAR you could throw in another prospect.
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
21,481
Rogers Park
I was thinking JBJ as a piece as the Mets are losing Cespedes and Cuddyer
can't play the OF.
So Shelby Miller goes for what he goes for and we're going to get Stephen Matz for a package built around Holt or JBJ?

I don't know, guys. Why wouldn't the Mets have wanted Ender Inciarte? They could have flipped Swanson.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
53,841
The Mets would give you Niese for Holt in a cocaine heartbeat. They want out from that contract in the worst way. What would the Sox do with him? They dont need a league average SP making $10M.
He'd be like a right-handed Miley. If we didn't need Miley, we don't need Niese.