Start, Sit, Trade: Play Along with Dave

[nothumb]

[SIZE=14.666666666666666px]Folks are grappling in various places with how to get the most value out of the glut of mediocre-to-okay, mostly young pitching talent between Boston and the upper minors. This post in particular is inspired by the discussion around bullpen construction currently going on in the "righting the ship" thread, and Buzzkill's point about the challenge of figuring out who is rotation depth, bullpen depth, or merely dragging us into the depths of sorrow and despair. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=14.666666666666666px]I think the plan for position players is relatively well understood at this point, or at least as well as it can be, but what Dombrowski decides to do with his underwhelming deep depth on the mound is a huge, important question. The 2015 Sox are middle of the pack in the AL for SP xFIP and WAR, despite all the issues; their bullpen, on the other hand, has been wretched.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=14.666666666666666px]The Sox' challenge is to convert a logjam of decent-to-good talent, much of it in limbo between the bullpen and the rotation, into 1) an upgraded top of the rotation and 2) a good bullpen. To illustrate this thought process, I would propose we play a variant of the old water cooler standby "Fuck, Marry, Kill," known as "Start, Sit, Trade." Sit, of course, meaning sit on the bench in the bullpen and wait for the phone to ring. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=14.666666666666666px]Obviously we can also acquire people using money. However, the key decision point in this regarding the talent on the roster is to figure out who can fill out the ML staff and the backup depth in Pawtucket, and who will bring more value being shipped out now before they reach their expiration date. The decision to move a young starter into the pen, or to sell on a prospect, is an exercise in conditional probability that's also heavily influenced by the talent in front of him. So let's try to create a thought process for making those decisions.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=14.666666666666666px]In determining who to keep on a starting track, I think the Sox need to prioritize upside (ability to not just be an adequate back-end guy but a cost-controlled #2 or #3). In general, guys who project as serviceable, cheap back end types are guys you want to keep in that role until you really have to move them, but the Sox have a glut of mid-to-back-end starters. So we should be more likely than usual to either deal those low-ceiling SP types, or send them to the pen.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=14.666666666666666px]So, here is a list of pitchers whom the Sox control into 2016, and who are either firmly starters, firmly relievers, or in limbo. Let's tentatively sort them into the categories of start, sit, trade, with the understanding that all of this can change based on market conditions or future performance.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=14.666666666666666px]You can also put people into the category of "fire into the sun aboard the SS Breslow-Cook-Machi" if you think "trade" is too mild or euphemistic. I didn’t include guys like Diaz or Light who are not yet on the 40. [/SIZE]



[SIZE=14.666666666666666px]Starters[/SIZE]
 
Buchholz
Porcello
E. Rodriguez
Kelly
Owens
Miley
 
Relievers:
 
Koji
Taz
Ross
Layne
Hembree
Varvaro
Aro
Ramirez
Cook
Machi
 
Limbo:
 
Wright
Workman
Barnes
Escobar
 
My notes[SIZE=14.666666666666666px]: Among the starters, I think Kelly’s recent trend and Dombrowski’s preference for hard throwers keeps him on the starting track. Miley I think is likely also in the rotation due to his durability and contract. Johnson could easily have been in limbo, plus he’s hurt. I suspect he stays a starter and provides depth. I also think the need for upside on the top of the rotation means that the Sox probably pick up Buchholz’ option if the medicals aren’t forbidding. [/SIZE]


[SIZE=14.666666666666666px]Wright is a guy who can go into the pen if he projects as one of the best ML relievers, and otherwise should stay in the rotation in Pawtucket. He’s easy to move around and you don’t damage his value by shuffling him since he probably has very little. He is what he is.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=14.666666666666666px]I think Barnes, Escobar and Workman should all be either sent to the pen or traded. Workman and Barnes probably have very little trade value so might as well get them used to relieving - Escobar maybe could be a throw-in this winter but certainly not a headliner. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=14.666666666666666px]Based on the idea that the Sox will probably acquire a front-end SP, I’m going to say that they probably TRADE one of Edro, Owens, or Kelly (possibly as part of a package for said SP). Those guys are good enough and close enough that pushing all three of them to Pawtucket makes little sense - trade one while they have many years of control and potential. You probably also trade whomever from the AAA bullpen can help acquire a SP, if anyone, though there's not much there and you may just end up sitting on them and hoping you don't need them.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=14.666666666666666px]So a rotation of Ace TBD, Buchholz, Porcello, Miley, Kelly, with whoever is left of Owens and Edro as depth or in the rotation if Clay is gone, and Johnson and most likely Wright first up in Pawtucket. [/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=14.666666666666666px]A bullpen of Koji, Taz, Ross, Workman, Barnes, Layne, and whoever sticks from FA, trades or the depth mentioned here. Obviously guys like Barnes or Layne can ride the shuttle or lose out to Hembree or Ramirez or whatever. All fungible below the top four. Wright could also work his way into the ML pen if they need him. [/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=14.666666666666666px]EDIT: Table fail. Fuck it just gonna make a list [/SIZE]

 

[OCD SS]

Maybe I missed the emphasis, but I feel like people are reading a bit much into DD's "Hard thrower" comment. I suspect DD is going by results more than aesthetic preference. If Kelly was still getting lit up, throwing hard probably wouldn't get him much more rope.

 

[nothumb]

Maybe I missed the emphasis, but I feel like people are reading a bit much into DD's "Hard thrower" comment. I suspect DD is going by results more than aesthetic preference. If Kelly was still getting lit up, throwing hard probably wouldn't get him much more rope.

 
I feel like it's related to the adage that emerged sometime last decade that power pitching is at a premium in the playoffs and becomes more important in that atmosphere. There was some analysis around it at the time, I don't know if it's held up or not.
 
I agree that it's not going to keep Kelly around if he goes back to being terrible, just that in a close decision my guess is DD is going to favor the guy who can bring it.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I'll play, since I almost started a topic with the same question a couple days ago.

Start
Cueto (FA)
Buchholz
Porcello
Kelly
Rodriguez
Owens (AAA)
Barnes(AAA)
Escobar (AAA outright)
Buttrey (AA)

Sit
Uehara
Chapman (Trade)
Benoit (FA)
Tazawa
Ross
Layne
Wright
Hembree (AAA)
Workman (AAA)
Johnson (AAA)
Aro (AAA)
Ramirez (AAA)
Light (AAA)

Trade
Miley for Chapman + Garrett or Mella

Non-tender: Machi, Cook, Ogando, Varvaro

I think the risk of losing Workman and Johnson depth starters, by dedicating both to the bullpen, is offset by retaining Wright as a swingman who should be relatively easy to stretch out, if and when a 7th starter is needed. Owens is the clear choice as 6th starter, while Barnes continues to work in a more structured way on his secondary offerings, as the 8th starter.

[edit fleshes out my one trade proposal, assuming Jocketty won't trade Votto + Chapman for a package starting with Hanley + Miley]

 

[nothumb]

Just realized Wright is out of options so that probably tilts him towards the ML pen. Escobar is too, so they probably give him a shot to win one of the last bullpen roles in ST and then try to flip him or sneak him through waivers if he doesn't make it. Assuming he's not traded over the winter.

 

[grimshaw]

Start
Zimmerman (FA)
Trade Acquisition (Harvey may be available now . . The owner was not a fan before this latest thing)
Miley
Porcello/Buchholz
Rodriguez
 
I think one or more of Kelly Buchholz, Porcello, Rodriguez, Johnson or Owens will be moved for a starter and 1 or two bullpen guys
If they don't make the trade they may go the Cubs route and see if they are contending with what they have with the ability to make a trade in July.
There are also enough guys to make two trades and not sniff the FA market, though I don't know of the availability.  Porcello is more moveable now, and Dombrowski has already said he wouldn't have extended him.  That can't be a good sign.
 
Gun to my head
Zimmerman
Harvey
Miley
Buchholz
Rodriguez
 
Sit
Uehara
Storen via trade - to close
Tazawa
Ross
Hembree
Light
Wright
 
I think Escobar and Workman are too marginal to stick for long periods.
 

 

[doctormoist]

I wouldn't be counting on Buchholz for much of anything. Now they're stuck with him because he's damaged goods.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I wouldn't be counting on Buchholz for much of anything. Now they're stuck with him because he's damaged goods.

I'm not either, and that's why I want Cueto.

It's probably 50-50 odds that Clay doesn't start the season with the Sox, but has to work his way back into games by late April or even later. And it's near a 100% lock that he misses at least five starts on the DL at some point. So it's great that the Sox have such a good back-up plan as Henry Owens, because he'll probably pitch a lot for Boston. But with EdRo and Miley (if neither is traded), that's 2-3 LHP out of a five man staff.

Sign another, in the offseason, and that's 3-4 LHP...not a smart way to plan winning home games in front of the Monster, even if one of those is David Price. Especially considering the RH power playing for the MFYs and Jays and the unbalanced schedule.

With Cueto's elbow history, the glut of other quality pitchers on the market, connection to Pedro, and his lack of playoff success and recent fade with the Royals, I think the Sox will be able to sign him early for no more than John Lackey years and money, adjusted for inflation. I'm expecting he goes for far, far less than Price, say 5/125 + 1-2 vesting/club options. Not too shabby, but not the king's ransom in money or prospects that Price or Gray or Harvey would command, either.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I wouldn't be counting on Buchholz for much of anything. Now they're stuck with him because he's damaged goods.

 
Um, they're not stuck with him at all. They have a team option for next year that they can decline to exercise. They're not going to get anything for him in trade unless they pick up the option, of course, but they can choose to let him ride off into the sunset and become someone else's problem if they want.

 

[bosockboy]

 
Um, they're not stuck with him at all. They have a team option for next year that they can decline to exercise. They're not going to get anything for him in trade unless they pick up the option, of course, but they can choose to let him ride off into the sunset and become someone else's problem if they want.

Which I have a strong suspicion they will do. That money can pay for a new bullpen.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Which I have a strong suspicion they will do. That money can pay for a new bullpen.

 
Speaking of which--I'm not seeing much discussion of bullpen FA options, and a few of them are interesting. Maybe that's a thread in itself, but it seems relevant here. 
 
Let me know if I've missed anybody worth looking at--I left out the guys with team options because I figured if they weren't good enough to get their options picked up, we wouldn't want them either, but that may be oversimplifying in a couple of cases.
 
RHP
 
Tyler Clippard--probably a bad fit for Fenway as he lives by weak flyball contact (career #s: 56.7% FB rate, 7.9% HR/FB, .231 BABIP), and some of those outs might not be outs here. But he's always managed to way outpitch his peripherals (top 10 out of 274 in ERA - FIP for this decade).
 
Tommy Hunter -- has shat the bed for the Cubs, which will bring down his price tag if nothing else. Not an elite reliever, but he throws strikes, has succeeded in the AL East, and doesn't give up a lot of hard contact (at least, not until he hit Wrigley). Might be on Dombrowski's radar since he throws high-90s and Dombrowski supposedly likes that.
 
Shawn Kelley -- he's already had two Tommy Johns and is currently nursing a sore forearm....and he throws his slider a ton. You do the math. But he's a K machine, and he seems to have found his way to a better batted-ball profile this year (more GBs). 
 
Darren O'Day -- will probably be the most expensive of the names on this list. As solid as setup guys get, and having a nice walk year. 
 
Ryan Webb -- your basic sinker/slider ground ball machine, has brought his walk rate down from meh to excellent over his career. Consistently gaudy SIERAs. Could be the second coming of Burke Badenhop.
 
 
LHP
 
Antonio Bastardo -- Strikes out a ton of guys, walks a ton of guys, but good at preventing hard contact. Not a LOOGY, because he gets RHH out decently, but destroys LHH (career SLG allowed: .327). 
 
Neal Cotts -- Cotts really is a LOOGY, and still a pretty good one. Might be an upgrade over Layne, but probably not enough of an upgrade to be worth the extra few million?
 
Oliver Perez -- Perez is starting to look like the Darren Oliver of his generation. He's had the living bejeezus handed to him since arriving in Houston, but it's a small enough sample not to get too concerned about. One thing that might be concerning: he's got a pronounced LOOGY split this year after having moderate-to-reverse splits over the preceding three years.
 
Tony Sipp -- After several mezze-mezze years with the Indians, Sipp has been great for the Astros, so one assumes they may try to keep him. No platoon splits at all, which is interesting for a guy who throws about 50% sliders.

 

[leftfieldlegacy]

Start
Zimmerman (FA)
Trade Acquisition (Harvey may be available now . . The owner was not a fan before this latest thing)
Miley
Porcello/Buchholz
Rodriguez
 
I think one or more of Kelly Buchholz, Porcello, Rodriguez, Johnson or Owens will be moved for a starter and 1 or two bullpen guys
If they don't make the trade they may go the Cubs route and see if they are contending with what they have with the ability to make a trade in July.
There are also enough guys to make two trades and not sniff the FA market, though I don't know of the availability.  Porcello is more moveable now, and Dombrowski has already said he wouldn't have extended him.  That can't be a good sign.
 
Gun to my head
Zimmerman
Harvey
Miley
Buchholz
Rodriguez
 
Sit
Uehara
Storen via trade - to close
Tazawa
Ross
Hembree
Light
Wright
 
I think Escobar and Workman are too marginal to stick for long periods.
 

 
Speculation from Rosenthal on Twitter yesterday that the whole Harvey "180 innings limit" conversation is because he is hurting. 
 

 
 
Echoing others: Only logical explanation is that Harvey not 100%. We can debate 180 IP. But this should not be coming up now, on Sept. 5.

 
If he has re injured his elbow, the Red Sox would not risk that trade. If his elbow is OK the Mets are going to want a huge haul from anyone wanting Harvey who won't hit free agency until after the 2018 season. 
 
Also, the Red Sox should just end things with Buchholz and not pick up his option. Kelly has looked looked good enough to get another shot next year. 

 

[GreyisGone]

Buchholz's 3.1 fWAR is still easily the best of a Sox pitcher and 3rd on the team overall. You guys are out of your minds if you think they debate his $13 mill option for a second if his arm is structurally sound.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Speaking of which--I'm not seeing much discussion of bullpen FA options, and a few of them are interesting. Maybe that's a thread in itself, but it seems relevant here. 
 
Let me know if I've missed anybody worth looking at--I left out the guys with team options because I figured if they weren't good enough to get their options picked up, we wouldn't want them either, but that may be oversimplifying in a couple of cases.
 
RHP

I would submit Joaquin Benoit to your list. 50-70 iP per year since 2010, with a whip under 1.15 in each and every year of that span. His 2010-2015 K/9 is an even 10.0, against 2.6 BB/9; that's good for an ERA+ of 169.

Granted, he's old, but no older than Koji was, when the Sox first signed him.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Which I have a strong suspicion they will do. That money can pay for a new bullpen.

In an article from the 28th by Edes, Dombrowski had this to say regarding Buchholz and his option:

 
“It’s impossible for me to evaluate [Buchholz] personally because I’m not going to see him pitch," Dombrowski said. “There’s not enough time to build him up and you don’t want to rush him and have him get hurt.
“If you think he’s healthy -- and I’m not the one capable of making that decision, it’s going be the doctors’ decision -- picking up his option is a pretty simple thing, because he’s a good big-league pitcher. It’s more a matter of the health perspective. Otherwise it’s an easy decision because he’s a quality big-league pitcher.
“Everything I hear is he’s going to be fine."

And Buchholz has resumed throwing. From Ian Browne:

 
 Earlier this week, Clay Buchholz at last got clearance to resume throwing, and he progressed to 75 feet on Wednesday, making 24 throws.
"He's reported that he's feeling very, very good," said interim manager Torey Lovullo. "We're obviously monitoring that. He's really encouraged by where he's at and how he's feeling."

 Sure he might be traded, but unless he blows out his arm or has a pretty big setback there is no way that they aren't picking up his option. 
You do not trade valuable pitchers like Buchholz to free up some money for the pen. Why on earth do you think they would give him away for nothing? Would you please do some research before you post. And you don't even need to scour the internet, czar has been posting about his value for quite a while now.

 

[ehaz]

Start:
 
Carrasco
Shark
Buchholz
Eduardo
Kelly/Porcello
 
(Pawtucket)
Johnson
 
Sit:
 
Uehara
Clippard
Tazawa
Bastardo
Ross
Workman 
Wright
 
Trade:
 
Miley, Owens, and Devers for Carrasco

 

[Al Zarilla]

Abs' post:
 
“It’s impossible for me to evaluate [Buchholz] personally because I’m not going to see him pitch," Dombrowski said. “There’s not enough time to build him up and you don’t want to rush him and have him get hurt.
“If you think he’s healthy -- and I’m not the one capable of making that decision, it’s going be the doctors’ decision -- picking up his option is a pretty simple thing, because he’s a good big-league pitcher. It’s more a matter of the health perspective. Otherwise it’s an easy decision because he’s a quality big-league pitcher.
“Everything I hear is he’s going to be fine."
 
I like this guy. He seems honest, frank, doesn't pussyfoot around, almost blunt (also saying he likes the young outfield a couple weeks ago). Not the standard drivel like "we'll evaluate everyone fairly and those that look like they'll contribute most to the team and its precepts will be given every chance to show what they can do."

 

[nothumb]

Al, agree. I too like the cut of DD's jib. And I think it's correct that if he's healthy, you pick up Clay's option, because his upside is #2 / fringe #1. The Sox have guys who can step in and be decent if he falls apart. The only reason not to give him a shot - knowing full well you are gambling on him - is if you have a short-term payroll crunch based on other acquisitions.
 
I'm surprised how many people see us adding two top-end SPs. I wouldn't totally rule it out, but I think between rebounding Porcello and Kelly, roll of the dice on Clay, development of Rodriguez and backup of whoever is left and not traded from Miley, Owens, Johnson... you have a good 2 through 5. Maybe none of those guys is a lock to be a true #2 (if such a thing exists) but all are a good bet to be better than a typical #5.
 
I would love to see us trade for one front end SP and spend the money in the bullpen and a good backup OF / 1B type. That would help me feel much more secure about the Hanley / Shaw / Panda situation.

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

In an article from the 28th by Edes, Dombrowski had this to say regarding Buchholz and his option:
And Buchholz has resumed throwing. From Ian Browne:
 Sure he might be traded, but unless he blows out his arm or has a pretty big setback there is no way that they aren't picking up his option. 
You do not trade valuable pitchers like Buchholz to free up some money for the pen. Why on earth do you think they would give him away for nothing? Would you please do some research before you post. And you don't even need to scour the internet, czar has been posting about his value for quite a while now.

I wonder if the team would be tempted to shut Buchholz down for the first two months of the season even if he is ready to go at the beginning of the year. At this point, isn't it worth admitting that Buchholz probably can't handle a full major league season and that we'd all be better off with him contributing from June to October than from April to July? He's too good not to pick up the $13m option and he's too much of a health risk to bank on him staying physically able to play for a full season.

 

[nothumb]

I wonder if the team would be tempted to shut Buchholz down for the first two months of the season even if he is ready to go at the beginning of the year. At this point, isn't it worth admitting that Buchholz probably can't handle a full major league season and that we'd all be better off with him contributing from June to October than from April to July? He's too good not to pick up the $13m option and he's too much of a health risk to bank on him staying physically able to play for a full season.

 
Problem with this, aside from the union and the player having a huge issue, is you could hold him back till June and he could still implode in August after the trade deadline. And you make yourself worse in April and May.
 
2013 is a good example of this. Lester had a poor first half, Lackey was good and after that the rotation was a mess. The trickle down effect on the rest of the staff and the bullpen would have been terrible had Clay been out then. That was still a really good offensive club that is probably in contention and buying at the deadline, but who knows? Maybe they don't go get Peavy. Maybe the pen is shot by June.
 
If you knew that Clay was good for exactly 140 innings or something like that, and could deploy him accordingly with no ill effects on clubhouse or player, that would be one thing. But the injury bug is not that consistent. And it's almost never a good strategy to make yourself worse over the short term in hopes of making it up later.

 

[Fireball Fred]

Buchholz is certainly worth the option in general, but he's a problem for the Sox because they really need reliability. I wonder what he'd bring in trade from a team with a solid top of the rotation.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I would submit Joaquin Benoit to your list. 50-70 iP per year since 2010, with a whip under 1.15 in each and every year of that span. His 2010-2015 K/9 is an even 10.0, against 2.6 BB/9; that's good for an ERA+ of 169.

Granted, he's old, but no older than Koji was, when the Sox first signed him.

 
I didn't include Benoit because I was leaving off the list all pitchers with options, on the theory that their availability is both unpredictable, and likely to be inversely related to their desirability. But Benoit might be an exception; even though he's having a perfectly fine year, $8M is a lot for a 38-year-old setup guy (OTOH, since he has a $1.5M buyout, we're really only talking about a $6.5M net cost for the Padres to keep him).
 
Perhaps I should have included Broxton too--his option is less likely to be picked up than Benoit's, and he has actually pitched decently this year, much better than his ERA would indicate (and the ERA has been catching up ever since he escaped from Miller Park and the Brewers' godawful defense).

 

[AB in DC]

Buchholz is certainly worth the option in general, but he's a problem for the Sox because they really need reliability

Why do you say that?  It looks like they're going to have a lot more depth in 2016 than they did this year.

 

[KillerBs]

My tentative plan for a 2016 staff would look like this:
 
1. TBD -- FA selected from following list (Price, Greinke, Cueto, Kazmir, Gallardo, Chen, Samardzija, Leake)
2. Buchholz
3. Edro
4. Porcello
5. Best of (Kelly or Wright)
 
CL- Koji
SU1RHP -- FA from names listed above, ODay, Broxton, Benoit, Kelley, etc. and Brad Ziegler who should be added to list.
SU2LHP -- FA from those listed above eg SIpp, O. Perez, Bastardo, JP Howell
SU3RHP -- Tazawa
LHP2 -- Ross or Layne
6 long -- Wright or Kelly 
7: pick one from Owens, Ogando, Barnes, Hembree, Aro
 
That would leave Miley to be traded, freeing up some dollars for the FA acquisitions. Obviously, this hinges on having some confidence in Buchholz's health.

 

[jimv]

bviously, this hinges on having some
That would leave Miley to be traded, freeing up some dollars for the FA acquisitions. Obviously, this hinges on having some confidence in Buchholz's health

 
Does anyone, Sox management included, have that confidence?

 

[MikeM]

Why do you say that?  It looks like they're going to have a lot more depth in 2016 than they did this year.

 
Probably because depth alone doesn't always equal reliability, and most of our guys now (minus Miley) are fairly hard to project with any real certainty.
 
Beyond a default desire to dream big on upside potential atm, i'm personally having a hard time piecing together a reality scenario this winter where DD signs a big money free agent ace, *and* picks up Buchholz's option with the intention of playing him, *and* trades Miley's innings away in the name of handing his spot off to Edro/Kelly.
 
(Especially if we are talking trade to ideally fill that 2nd starter spot, where i'm then left guessing Edro heading the other way would be a necessary component. I'm as encouraged as anybody in Kelly's performance of late, but actually banking on him in 2016 over Miley still strikes me as being a pretty sketchy decision) 

 

[InsideTheParker]

I'm not either, and that's why I want Cueto.

It's probably 50-50 odds that Clay doesn't start the season with the Sox, but has to work his way back into games by late April or even later. And it's near a 100% lock that he misses at least five starts on the DL at some point. So it's great that the Sox have such a good back-up plan as Henry Owens, because he'll probably pitch a lot for Boston. But with EdRo and Miley (if neither is traded), that's 2-3 LHP out of a five man staff.

Sign another, in the offseason, and that's 3-4 LHP...not a smart way to plan winning home games in front of the Monster, even if one of those is David Price. Especially considering the RH power playing for the MFYs and Jays and the unbalanced schedule.

With Cueto's elbow history, the glut of other quality pitchers on the market, connection to Pedro, and his lack of playoff success and recent fade with the Royals, I think the Sox will be able to sign him early for no more than John Lackey years and money, adjusted for inflation. I'm expecting he goes for far, far less than Price, say 5/125 + 1-2 vesting/club options. Not too shabby, but not the king's ransom in money or prospects that Price or Gray or Harvey would command, either.

You have convinced me he would be relatively cheap, but not good. I am hoping the Sox avoid him like the plague.

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

I'll play.
 
Sign Price 
Trade Kelly, Margot, Travis Shaw and subsidized Panda to SDP for Tyson Ross and Craig Kimbrel. I don't know how the Padres would respond to that offer but it makes a lot of sense to me; I bet Kelly would be solid for San Diego, Shaw gives them an option with power at first, Margot a long term answer for CF. I'd replace Panda internally and look to split duties at third between Holt, Swihart and Rutledge.
Trade Miley for a strong RP, I'll somewhat randomly suggest Jake Diekman or someone about his level.
 
Rotation
Price
Ross
Buchholz
Edro
Porcello
 
Bullpen
Kimbrel
Koji
Taz
Diekman
Owens
Johnson

 

[nothumb]

I'll play.
 
Sign Price 
Trade Kelly, Margot, Travis Shaw and subsidized Panda to SDP for Tyson Ross and Craig Kimbrel. I don't know how the Padres would respond to that offer but it makes a lot of sense to me; I bet Kelly would be solid for San Diego, Shaw gives them an option with power at first, Margot a long term answer for CF. I'd replace Panda internally and look to split duties at third between Holt, Swihart and Rutledge.
Trade Miley for a strong RP, I'll somewhat randomly suggest Jake Diekman or someone about his level.
 
Rotation
Price
Ross
Buchholz
Edro
Porcello
 
Bullpen
Kimbrel
Koji
Taz
Diekman
Owens
Johnson

 
It's way too soon to turn Owens into a bullpen arm. Johnson, maybe, but meh. And in this scenario, your sixth best SP is Steven Wright and your seventh is nobody. Which will work out great when your plan for Buchholz' annual injury sabbatical comes into play.

 

[Rasputin]

 
It's way too soon to turn Owens into a bullpen arm. Johnson, maybe, but meh. And in this scenario, your sixth best SP is Steven Wright and your seventh is nobody. Which will work out great when your plan for Buchholz' annual injury sabbatical comes into play.

In the back of my head, there's a nightmare scenario where we miss out on all the free agent starters and relievers and can't trade for shit where we go with a bullpen something like this.

Koji, Taz, Owens, Layne, Wright, and whatever scrubs we bring in. It's terrifyingly shallow even if we get a win on Pat Light at some point.

I want a right handed free agent, and to trade for Chapman.

FA, Porcello, Rodriguez, Kelly, Miley

Wright on the roster as long man, plus Owens and Johnson for depth with Buchholz traded.

Chapman, Koji, Taz as the prime bullpen guys. A FA lefty I have not identified yet, Layne as loogy, Wright as long man, and whichever scrub looks like he's the best come opening day.

Betts, Bradley, Castillo in the outfield left to right.

Sandoval (which my phone recognized as sensual and gave me a squick), Bogaerts, Pedroia, Ramirez.

Papi.

Swihart

Hanigan, Holt, Shaw, and someone who can steal bases when we need them to.

 

[Auger34]

I'll play.
 
Sign Price 
Trade Kelly, Margot, Travis Shaw and subsidized Panda to SDP for Tyson Ross and Craig Kimbrel. I don't know how the Padres would respond to that offer but it makes a lot of sense to me; I bet Kelly would be solid for San Diego, Shaw gives them an option with power at first, Margot a long term answer for CF. I'd replace Panda internally and look to split duties at third between Holt, Swihart and Rutledge.
Trade Miley for a strong RP, I'll somewhat randomly suggest Jake Diekman or someone about his level.
 
Rotation
Price
Ross
Buchholz
Edro
Porcello
 
Bullpen
Kimbrel
Koji
Taz
Diekman
Owens
Johnson

This is roughly my idea. Trade Owens, Margot, Guerra, Marrero, and Rijo for Ross and Kimbrel.
Sign Jordan Zimmermann. I think he will be cheaper than Price and he has less mileage.
Sign Tony Sipp and an outfielder who can hit left handed pitching (Rajai Davis? Ryan Raburn?)
Stash ERod in AAA for if/when injuries occur or flameouts. AAA rotation: Eddie, Johnson, Barnes, Workman

Go with a 6 man at the beginning of the year. Zim, Ross, Buch, Porcello, Miley and Kelly.
Pen: Kimbrel, Uehara, Sipp, Ross, Tazawa, Wright as the long man.

If everyone performs you trade Kelly/Buch/Miley for a need that will inevitably pop up.

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

 
It's way too soon to turn Owens into a bullpen arm. Johnson, maybe, but meh. And in this scenario, your sixth best SP is Steven Wright and your seventh is nobody. Which will work out great when your plan for Buchholz' annual injury sabbatical comes into play.

I'm not turning Owens into a bullpen arm, any more than the Cardinals have turned Carlos Martinez into a bullpen arm. I'm letting him start his career in the bullpen. 
 
My sixth starter is Owens. My seventh is Johnson. Wright would be eight. 

 

[nothumb]

I'm not turning Owens into a bullpen arm, any more than the Cardinals have turned Carlos Martinez into a bullpen arm. I'm letting him start his career in the bullpen. 
 
My sixth starter is Owens. My seventh is Johnson. Wright would be eight. 

If you're using Owens and Johnson in the pen then they aren't your sixth and seventh starters. They would need a month to stretch out if they had to step back into the rotation. Your sixth and seventh starters (unless, arguably, one of them is Wright) need to be in the Pawsox rotation.

And Martinez had never pitched more than 60 or 70 innings as a professional when the Cards brought him up as a reliever. He was able to go a full season as a reliever and stay within his innings limit. Both Owens and Johnson are much further along in terms of IP per season.

 

[chrisfont9]

Start:
 
Carrasco
Shark
 
Trade:
 
Miley, Owens, and Devers for Carrasco

Trade yes. Shark no. He's hit 30 and his ERA+ is in rapid decline now that he's in the AL. I don't think he's terrible but he'll cost way more than he's worth.

 

[pdub]

This is roughly my idea. Trade Owens, Margot, Guerra, Marrero, and Rijo for Ross and Kimbrel.
Sign Jordan Zimmermann. I think he will be cheaper than Price and he has less mileage.
 

I guess I'd be fine with the trade proposal. We get a #2 and a shutdown a closer, give up our SS prospect depth and some more. But I don't think Zimmerman would be the wisest choice for spending big money. He's a good pitcher but his current stats scream "#2" to me. He has a WHIP of 1.2, an ERA that's close to 3.50, and he's also coming from the NL. His strikeout/9 numbers, while pretty solid, are not spectacular. 
If we're going to commit a 6-7 year deal for a pitcher, we might as well splurge and get Price. He's a better power pitcher and is proven in the AL East. Look no further than what he's doing for Toronto. If it comes down to giving Zimmerman $150M+, I'd prefer to wait it out and see if there's something better on the trade market.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

Putting this here because I don't know where else to ask - was there ever an update on Johnson's injury? 

 

[TimScribble]

http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2015/10/09/remember-brian-johnson-turns-out-hes-back-throwing-again/

 

[lxt]

My son-in-law keeps telling me Hanley will be trade to some team that wants DH help for about 50cents on the dollar. If I go with that as a given then I can come around to what I think would make me happy ... may make a few of you go crazy and set your flamethrowers on full but hey this its an opinion.
 
I keep coming back to Price and Chapman. Price because he is a proven AL arm that can take on AL East teams. His playoff record is a tad weak but he'll get a team to the playoffs. His numbers speak for themselves. Chapman because he can stand side-by-side with Koji and they can switch back and forth in the closing role. After that I'm pretty well set. Maybe another super-sub who has usable speed and on-base skills and a lefty in the pen.
 
Edit: Not sure what it would cost for Chapman ... I'm sure names on the list will be required (Owens & Marrero come to mind). However, the Reds are dealing a one year rental - great as he may be - which should keep the price reasonable.
 
Rotation - Price, Buchhotz, Rodriguez, Porcello & Miley
 
Pen - Chapman, Koji, Tazawa, Kelly, Layne & Wright ... maybe Hill
 
OF - Betts, Bradley & Castillo
 
IF - Panda, Bogaerts, Pedroia & Shaw
 
C - Swihart ... not sure when and if Vasquez will be back
 
DH - Papi
 
Bench - Holt, FA-Super-sub (OF maybe), Hanigan & Rutledge
 
Owens and Johnson are depth with possibly Hill & Ross as other possibilities if not already in the pen with Marrero, Cecchini & Craig for position players

 

[benhogan]

I'd live with just signing O'Day and trading for Chapman. 
 
Make the pen super strong and let our young starters develop.
 
Dump Hanley for 50 cents on the dollar.  He doesn't hit enough to make up for his awful base running, sketchy defense, and fragile body.
 
Maybe trade Clay for Chapman straight up or Miley + prospects for Chapman?  which probably gets us pretty close.
 
Get back to having payroll flexibility, let youngsters develop/ripen on the farm and trade for an ACE/Needs during the season.
 
We don't need to WIN the Hot Stove/Media Spin-cycle this year, like we did last winter.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

I'd live with just signing O'Day and trading for Chapman. 
 
Make the pen super strong and let our young starters develop.
 
Dump Hanley for 50 cents on the dollar.  He doesn't hit enough to make up for his awful base running, sketchy defense, and fragile body.
 
Maybe trade Clay for Chapman straight up or Miley + prospects for Chapman?  which probably gets us pretty close.
 
Get back to having payroll flexibility, let youngsters develop/ripen on the farm and trade for an ACE/Needs during the season.
 
We don't need to WIN the Hot Stove/Media Spin-cycle this year, like we did last winter.

Playing devils advocate here but when you're charging the highest prices in the league its a tough sell to the fan base after a last place season. You don't need to win the hot stove season but you need to address holes on the big league club. The most glaring hole happens to be an ace. So trading Clay who is the best pitcher on the roster when healthy is crazy talk without going out and replacing him. I'm not sold Brian Johnson/Wright/Owens will be ready.

The issue being is the the Sox do not have an ace on the farm right now. The closest thing to it, Espinoza, is three years away. If you want to protect the farm than the Sox should only target Price or Cueto since they will not cost players or picks. Chapman and O'Day is a decent plan but what's the point if you aren't going to address the biggest hole.

As far as dumping Hanley goes I've seen multiple posts mentioning taking back half or more of his salary and it's not realistic. This isn't a 200 million dollar contract. Hanley will have the same value he has right now next year worst case scenario. You're selling an asset at its lowest possible value and that's not good business. Henry is a hedge fund guy and chances are good he understands this aspect. Hanley is an asset that could bring back value if he ends up playing a decent first base. I assume the plan on the board is to hand Shaw the job. We have only a SSS to go off of with him and that SSS doesn't mirror his minor league track record at all. I would be cautious.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Playing devils advocate here but when you're charging the highest prices in the league its a tough sell to the fan base after a last place season. You don't need to win the hot stove season but you need to address holes on the big league club. The most glaring hole happens to be an ace. So trading Clay who is the best pitcher on the roster when healthy is crazy talk without going out and replacing him. I'm not sold Brian Johnson/Wright/Owens will be ready.

The issue being is the the Sox do not have an ace on the farm right now. The closest thing to it, Espinoza, is three years away. If you want to protect the farm than the Sox should only target Price or Cueto since they will not cost players or picks. Chapman and O'Day is a decent plan but what's the point if you aren't going to address the biggest hole.

As far as dumping Hanley goes I've seen multiple posts mentioning taking back half or more of his salary and it's not realistic. This isn't a 200 million dollar contract. Hanley will have the same value he has right now next year worst case scenario. You're selling an asset at its lowest possible value and that's not good business. Henry is a hedge fund guy and chances are good he understands this aspect. Hanley is an asset that could bring back value if he ends up playing a decent first base. I assume the plan on the board is to hand Shaw the job. We have only a SSS to go off of with him and that SSS doesn't mirror his minor league track record at all. I would be cautious.

 
Still, this is exactly the kind of thought process that ends up with the team filling up its active roster with low-WAR, high-cost players like Hanley and Sandoval were last season. And which then forces the cycle to repeat again, because the team can't lower prices (even if they wanted to) while its payroll is full of bloated guaranteed contracts wasting hundreds of millions of dollars.
 
It's true the Sox don't have an ace on the farm. However, part of that is because Owens and EdRo were both taking their lumps in Boston rather than padding their stats in Pawtucket; meanwhile, Brian Johnson was hurt.
 
However, even with all its many flaws, the 2015 Red Sox could have contended for the second wild card, given a decent bullpen. Replacing Breslow and Mujica with Chapman and O'Day certainly would strengthen that part of the club next opening day. 

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Question for Tyrone & other "gotta have an ace" folks: which of the current American League playoff teams would you say took the field on Opening Day 2015 with a pitcher on the roster that you would, at that time, have described as an ace?
 
Or, to flip the question around, looking at the pitchers who merited the "ace" designation and were on AL rosters on Opening Day, how did their teams do? I'm seeing the Indians (Kluber), Mariners (Felix), White Sox (Sale), Tigers (Price, at the time), and Athletics (Gray). Maybe a couple of others, but that looks like the basic list of AL aces going into 2015. Not only did none of those five teams make the playoffs, but only one of them finished over .500, and the others had the four worst records in the league.
 
It's just possible that aces are overrated. What matters is having enough quality in your rotation. How the quality is distributed may not matter all that much.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

But why does it matter what it looked like at the start of the season? Houston had an ace emerge. Toronto and Texas took over first after they traded for an ace. Only KC won without an ace, although they thought they were trading for one.

And in the NL, all four teams still playing started the season with at least one Ace.

So it might not be mandatory, but it doesn't seem to be insignificant either.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

As for AL aces coming into 2015, Keuchel was coming off a 200 IP, 2.93/1.175 age 26 breakout season in '14, with very good K and BB rates.  The MFY had Tanaka. 
 
It's not like the top of the rotation wasn't an identified question mark for the Sox.  We had our fingers crossed that Buch would stay healthy and Porcello would continue to develop - those things didn't happen.  Are we more confident this go 'round?
 
You don't have to have an ace, someone who's expected to be All-Star caliber and finish as, say, a top 10 starter.  After all, no team is perfect.  But a team ought to use the offseason to ID it's significant flaws and work to improve on if not eliminate them.  With the resources Boston has, going after a more reliable, top of the rotation starter ought to be a priority.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Question for Tyrone & other "gotta have an ace" folks: which of the current American League playoff teams would you say took the field on Opening Day 2015 with a pitcher on the roster that you would, at that time, have described as an ace?
 
Or, to flip the question around, looking at the pitchers who merited the "ace" designation and were on AL rosters on Opening Day, how did their teams do? I'm seeing the Indians (Kluber), Mariners (Felix), White Sox (Sale), Tigers (Price, at the time), and Athletics (Gray). Maybe a couple of others, but that looks like the basic list of AL aces going into 2015. Not only did none of those five teams make the playoffs, but only one of them finished over .500, and the others had the four worst records in the league.
 
It's just possible that aces are overrated. What matters is having enough quality in your rotation. How the quality is distributed may not matter all that much.

Teams right now? Texas has 2, albeit one is injured in Darvish. Toronto has Price. Houston has Dallas. He emerged this year but I think we can give it to him right now. Cubs have Big Jake who has been on an amazing run. Dodgers have two. Cards ace is hurt and pitching out of the pen. The Mets have Harvey. I would say honestly every team in the playoffs has an ace that has either emerged in 2015 or was there prior.

Price and Hamels were acquired via trade. Dodgers had two on the roster already. Wainwright is an ace. Lester was borderline. Harvey is an ace but was questionable coming off injury rehab.

So is it 100% necessary to have an Ace on April 1st? No. But it's absolutely necessary to have that player in place if you plan to play deep into October. The quality in the rotation plan was implemented in the 2014-2015 off-season. Bring in 5 starters who were #3's and give the Sox depth. It didn't work out. It's a great idea in theory but you need that guy who can stop the bleeding during a losing streak or can come up in a big game.

The fact the White Sox or M's didn't make the playoffs shouldn't be held against Felix or Sale. There is no statistical analysis that could be provided that will get me to believe that the Sox are better off without a guy like Price at the top of the rotation as opposed to Rick Porcello.

Ignoring the obvious need in favor of acquiring more depth and throwing stuff against the wall to see what sticks is the exact reason that Ben is currently out of a job. If his plan worked then he probably survives the Panda and Hanley deals.

 

[Toe Nash]

But why does it matter what it looked like at the start of the season? Houston had an ace emerge. Toronto and Texas took over first after they traded for an ace. Only KC won without an ace, although they thought they were trading for one. And in the NL, all four teams still playing started the season with at least one Ace. So it might not be mandatory, but it doesn't seem to be insignificant either.

This is sort of the point. Aces are important but paying >$200mm for one isn't the only way to get one. So long as your pitching has enough quality to keep you in the race, you can basically make a deal for one every year if you think you're in position for a run. 
 
Paying huge money for Price locks in an ace and you get him for the whole year and you get to keep your prospects or deal them for something else. But you also get all the downside and in the Sox case they probably aren't going to use all their prospects nor do they have a lot of other needs to deal them for.

 

[benhogan]

As far as dumping Hanley goes I've seen multiple posts mentioning taking back half or more of his salary and it's not realistic. This isn't a 200 million dollar contract. Hanley will have the same value he has right now next year worst case scenario. You're selling an asset at its lowest possible value and that's not good business. Henry is a hedge fund guy and chances are good he understands this aspect. Hanley is an asset that could bring back value if he ends up playing a decent first base. I assume the plan on the board is to hand Shaw the job. We have only a SSS to go off of with him and that SSS doesn't mirror his minor league track record at all. I would be cautious.

John Henry, "the Hedge Fund" manager, has based his trading strategy/success on selling losers and holding winners, he is a classic momentum trader.   He is not a 'hold a position and hope it comes back' type of asset manager. 
 
Henry may see, as Hanley ages, his speed slow/base running worsen and not having the body to be able to practice and learn a new defensive position.  Agreed, its conjecture on my part to say "sell Hanley for 50 cents on the dollar", I don't know what Hanley's market price is right now, but we shouldn't be the least bit surprised if the Sox cut their losses with Hanley. 
 
 
Its a small quibble, but if you are going to read into Henry 'the hedge fund manager's' mind, you may want to know the exact strategy that made him successful.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

But why does it matter what it looked like at the start of the season? Houston had an ace emerge. Toronto and Texas took over first after they traded for an ace. Only KC won without an ace, although they thought they were trading for one. And in the NL, all four teams still playing started the season with at least one Ace. So it might not be mandatory, but it doesn't seem to be insignificant either.

 
The unfortunate truth is that the Sox could easily be in the same boat as KC even spending $100+MM this winter.
 
To my mind, any and all of the following are possible, in decreasing probability of likelihood:

• The Red Sox could sign an "ace" in the offseason and max out their budget for years to come;
• Eduardo Rodriguez could stop tipping pitches and approach his Sep/Oct performance (2.60 FIP);
• The Red Sox could acquire an "ace" at the trade deadline for a few quality prospects;
• Rick Porcello could substantially improve upon his post-DL 2015 performance (3.57 FIP)
• Joe Kelly could substantially improve upon his post-AAA 2015 performance (3.69 FIP);
• The Red Sox could mortgage their farm system to acquire a young "ace" in the offseason;
• Clay Buchholz could pitch as he did for part of 2015, for the entirety of 2016 (2.68 FIP).

Even with no external moves made, the possibility exists that an ace emerges next season, with EdRo being by far the most likely one.  That being said, I still think that, given the glut of quality starters on the market this offseason, DDski will probably give someone $100MM. I just hope he doesn't give anyone $150+MM.

 

[Drek717]

John Henry, "the Hedge Fund" manager, has based his trading strategy/success on selling losers and holding winners, he is a classic momentum trader.   He is not a 'hold a position and hope it comes back' type of asset manager. 
 
Henry may see as Hanley ages his speed slow/base running worsen and not having the body to be able to practice and learn a new defensive position.  Agreed its conjecture on my part to say "sell Hanley for 50 cents on the dollar", I don't know what Hanley's market price is right now, but we shouldn't be the least surprised if the Sox cut their losses with Hanley. 
 
 
Its a small quibble, but if you are going to read into Henry 'the hedge fund manager's' mind, you may want to know the exact strategy that made him successful.

The problem with selling Hanley at 50 cents on the dollar is that I don't think it'll be very easy to find a taker at even 50 cents on the dollar.  10 cents?  Sure.  20?  Maybe.  Asking someone else to take Hanley at $11M per for the next three years is going to be followed by a request for a pretty nice player to off-set.  Right now he's a man without a position and dubious health.
 
Alternatively if the Sox bring him back, play him at 1B, and he gets even remotely close to what he was to start 2015 he could be a pretty valuable 1B for a few years before replacing Ortiz at DH.
 
It's the same rationale for Sandoval.  The team who would most likely be interested in a "buy low" move on the last four years of Pablo or last three years of Hanley would be the current Red Sox roster absent either one of them.  There is no good in-house starting 3B or 1B options for 2016.  They have two solid cost controlled options who would look good as part of a timeshare at either position (Holt, Shaw) but not as the only option.  That's the reality of the current organizational depth chart.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Teams right now? Texas has 2, albeit one is injured in Darvish. Toronto has Price. Houston has Dallas. He emerged this year but I think we can give it to him right now. Cubs have Big Jake who has been on an amazing run. Dodgers have two. Cards ace is hurt and pitching out of the pen. The Mets have Harvey. I would say honestly every team in the playoffs has an ace that has either emerged in 2015 or was there prior.

Price and Hamels were acquired via trade. Dodgers had two on the roster already. Wainwright is an ace. Lester was borderline. Harvey is an ace but was questionable coming off injury rehab.

So is it 100% necessary to have an Ace on April 1st? No. But it's absolutely necessary to have that player in place if you plan to play deep into October. The quality in the rotation plan was implemented in the 2014-2015 off-season. Bring in 5 starters who were #3's and give the Sox depth. It didn't work out. It's a great idea in theory but you need that guy who can stop the bleeding during a losing streak or can come up in a big game.

The fact the White Sox or M's didn't make the playoffs shouldn't be held against Felix or Sale. There is no statistical analysis that could be provided that will get me to believe that the Sox are better off without a guy like Price at the top of the rotation as opposed to Rick Porcello.

Ignoring the obvious need in favor of acquiring more depth and throwing stuff against the wall to see what sticks is the exact reason that Ben is currently out of a job. If his plan worked then he probably survives the Panda and Hanley deals.

 
As to the bolded: Your logical fallacy is: Strawman. Nobody said the Sox wouldn't be better with Price replacing any of their current starters. Of course they would. I'm just pushing back against the notion that the team can't contend without someone like that. Recent history contradicts your assertion that you need to have an ace to "play deep into October." KC didn't have one last year (unless you want to make a serious case that Shields is one at this stage of his career). In fact their rotation reflected a "quality depth" approach. 2011 Rangers, same deal. The 2005 White Sox won 99 games and a World Series; their best pitcher was Buehrle, who did have a hell of a year, but really doesn't fit the ace profile very well. 
 
As for the "5 #3's" concept having failed in practice: it failed for one year. That doesn't necessarily mean it would fail another year. I think the problem was more implementation than concept. There were too many question marks--about Clay's and Jedi's health, and about Kelly's command. Only Miley and Porcello looked like relatively solid bets, and only one of them came through as expected. So the take-home lesson from 2015 isn't necessarily "you need an ace," but certainly "if you're going to try to win with a rotation of five pretty good pitchers, you need to have high confidence in their durability and projectability."
 
So I'm not saying it wouldn't be a good idea to add a good pitcher to the front end of the rotation; of course it would, if the price is right. I'm just saying the case that we must do this and that the pitcher we acquire must be of "ace" quality for us to contend next year is weak.