Sox Sign Sizemore

[smastroyin]

I'm not one to make editorial changes willy-nilly, but I do think this thread missed an opportunity by not being called  "Sox Seize Sizemore" 
 
As for the signing itself, I don't really think it is indicative of any grand plan or lack/reassurance of faith in JBJ.  As others have said it is a lottery ticket and they probably have about 350 innings of OF work (what Brady contributed in covering for injuries last year) to dole out even to a guy who can just adequately (i.e. better than Nava) cover CF and RF.  So even if Sizemore isn't good anymore, he may have some use on this team, and if he somehow has a miracle recovery season then even better.  As well, even though it is a major league deal, he can be waived down to the minors and I'm not sure how much interest there would really be in picking him up.  And even if he gets picked up, what did you really lose?  I'm not sure exactly how incentives get thrown into the waiver rules (i.e. would the Sox be responsible for his incentive based salary or just his base salary if he is not meeting incentives to play for them?), but I imagine they are pretty well covered.

 

[mabrowndog]

At least one other MLB GM is ticked off that he signed with the Sox.
 

 
Reds general manager Walt Jocketty said he thought the team had agreed to a deal with free agent outfielder Grady Sizemore before he changed his mind and signed with the Red Sox on Wednesday.
 
“That’s all I’ll say about it — we thought we were going to get it done and he change his mind at the last minute,” Jocketty said on Thursday morning before the team left on its annual caravan. “That’s his prerogative.”
 
Sizemore agreed to a one-year, big-league deal with the Red Sox worth a guaranteed $750,000 and with incentives up to $6 million. Jocketty said the Reds did offer Sizemore a big-league deal.

 

[yecul]

The heavy odds favor this going nowhere. The worst case scenario is that he's not bad enough to give up on and JBJ isn't overwhelmingly awesome enough to force the issue, so you stick JBJ in AAA with SS floundering at the ML level for a while.
 
Best case is that he's good and can handle CF. That strikes me as the smallest percentage outcome.
 
Just about anywhere in the middle and it's wind up as a 750k confirmation that he's done.
 
There is plenty of time to free up a roster spot via another move or seven, so we'll see how it shakes out. As it sits this is a lottery ticket that probably won't change the roster projects form a day ago this time.

 

[mauf]

I'm not one to make editorial changes willy-nilly, but I do think this thread missed an opportunity by not being called  "Sox Seize Sizemore" 
 
As for the signing itself, I don't really think it is indicative of any grand plan or lack/reassurance of faith in JBJ.  As others have said it is a lottery ticket and they probably have about 350 innings of OF work (what Brady contributed in covering for injuries last year) to dole out even to a guy who can just adequately (i.e. better than Nava) cover CF and RF.  So even if Sizemore isn't good anymore, he may have some use on this team, and if he somehow has a miracle recovery season then even better.  As well, even though it is a major league deal, he can be waived down to the minors and I'm not sure how much interest there would really be in picking him up.  And even if he gets picked up, what did you really lose?  I'm not sure exactly how incentives get thrown into the waiver rules (i.e. would the Sox be responsible for his incentive based salary or just his base salary if he is not meeting incentives to play for them?), but I imagine they are pretty well covered.

 
Assuming they break camp with 12 pitchers, there are only 4 bench spots available, and 3 of those are presumably tagged for Ross, Herrera, and whichever half of the Nava/Gomes platoon isn't playing that day. If they're just looking for someone to cover those 350 innings of OF work, they presumably would've acquired a 4-A guy with options. If Sizemore makes the team, he'll play a bigger role than that.
 
I'll grant you that there is likely no "grand plan," but the FO must have a tentative plan for what they'd do if Sizemore is healthy come April and neither JBJ nor Carp has played himself out of a roster spot. All we're trying to do is guess what that plan is.

 

[smastroyin]

I meant more in the name of "this is how the Red Sox do business as opposed to other teams."  I don't think it is an especially brilliant move that no other team would think of doing.
 
As for the roster plan, I think they have probably mused about various scenarios, since as you note the roster is full.  My point is merely that this team needed OF and they had a chance at a lottery ticket instead of just a scrub.  Even if Sizemore is just a scrub, they can use him, assuming he passes waivers.  If he doesn't pass waivers, then the roster problem goes away.

 

[lexrageorge]

I think there's a general misconception that Spring Training doesn't matter at all.  While I agree that ST stats are mostly meaningless, and the Sox FO agrees as well, the fact remains that for guys attempting a comeback from injury (Sizemore) or guys on the cusp of AAA/MLB (JBJ), Spring Training does indeed matter.  
 
If Sizemore is healthy, moving around well, and looking as if he can still swing a bat, and if JBJ looks totally lost in his ST at-bats, then having Sizemore go north while JBJ gets some more AAA at-bats is not a bad thing at all. This is the scenario in mind when they say "providing competition for JBJ", as it's one of the few roster spots for which competition is potentially available.  The roster on April 1 is never the same as the one on September 1st anyway, so it's not like JBJ is lost for the season. 
 
If Sizemore gets hurt the first day of ST, then nothing is really lost other than a meaningless amount of cash.  It seems the worst case is if Sizemore looks good, and JBJ rakes again.  I'll say that's a good problem to have, even if it means that Mike Carp (or Sizemore himself) becomes the 2014 version of Mauro Gomez.  

 

[Hoplite]

I expect that Sizemore will be cut before the start of the season. But hypothetically, if he is healthy and effective in ST I assume we would fit him on the roster by trading Carp. Sizemore could then play left field (where he'd be a major upgrade over Nava defensively). Sizemore had some pretty significant platoon splits against lefties, so it would be nice to start him at a position where Gomes could fill in without shuffling people around too much. Nava could then fill the LF/1B bench spot that Carp filled last year. 

 

[Al Zarilla]

Remember when Ellsbury came up and some said he could be another Grady Sizemore and others scoffed? Knees (or other body parts) can be cruel.

 

[bosockboy]

At least one other MLB GM is ticked off that he signed with the Sox.
 

Well we got the Cardinals back for 1946 and 1967....

 

[Coachster]

Posted by Coachster on 22 November 2013 - 01:41 PM in Red Sox Forum

Chris Young just signed a one-year contract with the Mets. Really thought he'd be able to get two.
 
Will be interesting to see how that affects the Sox thinking wrt Ellsbury, Bradley, Beltran, et al. Besides Rajai Davis (and assuming Corey Hart is being considered to play first), there's really no other OF FA that fits.

There is Grady Sizemore.



 

Posted by Coachster on 07 November 2013 - 03:34 PM in Red Sox Forum

I generally agree with benhogan above, but I would add:
 
1) I can't see JE taking any discount, but if he does, great. Otherwise agree.  
2) I am OK with a 2 year or a 3 year deal if it contains some medical assurances for Napoli,  If Napoli does leave, sign or trade for a good RH 1b to platoon with Carp.
3) Agree
4) Agree. I have a weird inclination towards Kurt Suzuki.
5) Agree.
 
Agree on other points, but prefer C. Young to R. Davis.  

I was hoping somebody would mention this, but apparently I'm alone with my convictions again.
 
benhogan has a weird inclination towards Kurt Suzuki. I have one towards Grady Sizemore. He was the best CF in the game 2007-08. He's been injured for two full years. If he had anything left in the tank, he would be a perfect for an incentive-laden contract. Stash him in Pawtucket and find if he can still play. What would be the harm?
 
Folks, I had to mention that I was on this in November. Yes, it's possible I'm actually Ben Cherington

 

[seantoo]

Here is either a very low cost insurance policy on Bradley or perhaps more prudently an insurance policy on whatever disappoints in the Gomes/Nava/Carp/(Victorino injury time) rotation in the outfield and bench opportunities.  
 
Very little risk potentially high reward. 

I agree but let me also add in, Sizemore is insurance against an injury to either Bradley or Victorino, there is no way this team could afford an injury lasting into weeks for either of these players, which is highly unlikely. I simply don't see how some people here thought the Sox off-season was over. Now they likely will be making one more move with one of Gomes/Carp and possibly but unlikely Nava. I think they'll wait to see if Sizemore can make it through most of Spring-training before making any deals.
 
The Sox don't have any one great piece of easily expendable trade bait but if you package a deal together using a combination of players and or prospects, the Sox might actually be able to upgrade a position enough and make it worth while.
 
Edit: missed the x in expendable

 

[Hairps]

 

Posted by Coachster on 22 November 2013 - 01:41 PM in Red Sox Forum

There is Grady Sizemore.


 

Posted by Coachster on 07 November 2013 - 03:34 PM in Red Sox Forum

I was hoping somebody would mention this, but apparently I'm alone with my convictions again.
 
benhogan has a weird inclination towards Kurt Suzuki. I have one towards Grady Sizemore. He was the best CF in the game 2007-08. He's been injured for two full years. If he had anything left in the tank, he would be a perfect for an incentive-laden contract. Stash him in Pawtucket and find if he can still play. What would be the harm?
 
Folks, I had to mention that I was on this in November. Yes, it's possible I'm actually Ben Cherington




 

 
Nobody cares.

 

[FanSinceBoggs]

I would think that Sizemore is competing against Carp for a bench spot.  If Sizemore can stay healthy and show he can play a little, the Red Sox might trade Carp for a quality prospect.  I would be surprised to see Sizemore compete for the starting CF job. 
 
This signing did make me think of the 2009 off-season, when the Yankees signed the best free agents and Theo made bonehead decisions by bringing in Penny and Smoltz.  The Yankees went on the win the W.S. that year and were better than the Red Sox every year afterwards until the 2013 season.  Notwithstanding that similarity, I'm not expecting the same outcome--the Red Sox are the stronger team (and organization) going forward.
 
I don't want the Red Sox to deviate too far from big market mentality, however.  Signing expensive free agents (or resigning expensive players) is still a winning strategy.  Teams that don't do this rarely win championships.  To be sure, the Red Sox don't win the 2013 championship without their prior investment in John Lackey.
 
These low risk high reward acquisitions are nice, but they are rarely enough and must be supplemented with big spending on star players.

 

[seantoo]

 
........
I don't want the Red Sox to deviate too far from big market mentality, however.  Signing expensive free agents (or resigning expensive players) is still a winning strategy.  Teams that don't do this rarely win championships.  To be sure, the Red Sox don't win the 2013 championship without their prior investment in John Lackey.
 
These low risk high reward acquisitions are nice, but they are rarely enough and must be supplemented with big spending on star players.

This is a point that needs to be emphasized because alot of posters believe the Sox will not sign long term deals for stars, and that is wrong.
However when the low risk high reward move involves a back-up it is a move you make every time. It's not clear but I think you are in agreement with this.

 

[Alcohol&Overcalls]

I think there's a general misconception that Spring Training doesn't matter at all.  While I agree that ST stats are mostly meaningless, and the Sox FO agrees as well, the fact remains that for guys attempting a comeback from injury (Sizemore) or guys on the cusp of AAA/MLB (JBJ), Spring Training does indeed matter.  
 

 
Isn't the notion that Spring Training numbers don't matter, and not that the actual existence of the games/workouts?
 
I agree with your analysis re: scouting and examining Sizemore and JBJ with regard to, respectively, their health and progression, but I feel like that's something that happens with every player in the spring to some extent. The numbers won't stabilize in the spring, because of sample size and the completely non-standard tasks being asked of the players (ie "only throw curveballs" or "don't swing until 2 strikes" or "swing more" or whatever), but self-scouting should still happen.

 

[lexrageorge]

To be fair, the Sox did make a serious play for Teixeira in that same offseason (unbeknownst to all that they were just being played at the time).  They were never going to land Sabathia, and they were smart to avoid jumping in on the vastly overrated AJ Burnett.  By the time the dust settled, the pickings were pretty slim (Nick Punto and David Ross were off the board already). 

 

[Jaylach]

Breaking now
 
Grady Sizemore just shattered into a bajillion pieces celebrating his new contract. Apparently he contracted bonitis from an unknown source....

 
I was under the impression that boneitis caused your bones to deform, not shatter...
 

 

[KiltedFool]

Reminder from someone who used to watch him play as a rookie (and still has his jersey somewhere).
 
Folks speculating on him in RF should be reminded that his arm was always considered to be his weakest tool, I could see him in CF or LF much more easily.
 
Another aspect of the Pedroia comparison was that Grady plays all out all the time, he doesn't know how to throttle down, which is why his body breaking down on him wasn't that surprising in hindsight.  Think he was also compared to Biggio in that regard during his early years.  Contemporary with Granderson when they both broke in, he outshone Curtis back then but Granderson has lasted much longer.  Both had struggles against lefties.
 
He'll be a clubhouse plus, he has always been top shelf in terms of makeup.  Coach's dream in that respect.

 

[chrisfont9]

Can he even play baseball at this point? 
 
Seriously, the what are the odds that he ever appears in a Red Sox uniform?  And will we be happy if he does?  Wouldn't that imply a spectacular failure by Bradley?  Several posters have commented that it will be good to provide some competition for JBJ to "avoid complacency."   Is JBJ already so entitled that the opportunity to play regular major league baseball and to potentially make millions of dollars if he's good at it not enough motivation to succeed? 
 
And if the Sox decide to send JBJ down for roster reasons, not wanting to lose a broken down has been like Grady Sizemore, what message does that send JBJ?
 
I think Farrell is too smart to pull a Gary Gaetti-type move a la Jimy Williams in 2000 because Grady happens to have a handful of decent games in the artificial environment of spring training, so this is hopefully not something we're even thinking about come April 15, but I don't like this move very much.

Made up your mind already? Fair enough, but obviously the Sox had enough information that he might be healthy to drop $750k and a roster spot, so it seems worth considering that he's healthy.
 
As for the message to Bradley, how about "we're the Red Sox, we're loaded and you're still young. No need to rush you." From what we know of Bradley's personality, there is no reason whatsoever to think he'll be upset.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

Made up your mind already? Fair enough, but obviously the Sox had enough information that he might be healthy to drop $750k and a roster spot, so it seems worth considering that he's healthy.
 
As for the message to Bradley, how about "we're the Red Sox, we're loaded and you're still young. No need to rush you." From what we know of Bradley's personality, there is no reason whatsoever to think he'll be upset.

 
The bolded implies that Bradley isn't ready - that giving him the CF gig would be rushing him before he's ready. Which is not really the message you want to send. Mind you, there's nothing wrong with competition.
 
I think the best way to break in a rookie - in which the FO has faith - is to put him in the lineup everyday - give him 400-500 ABs to see if he can make the jump. Screwing around by letting him play 3-4 days a week or platooning does nothing to help his development. If your development people say he's ready then give him a full shot. Don't panic if he's hitting 240/300/380 in May. People keep worrying that he might flop - so what, Given his GG defensive skills, JBJ's floor is still that of a decent player. The upside of developing a homegrown cost controlled 3-4+ win player is so great that it vastly outweighs the loss of a game or two in order to get there.
 
Getting back to the Sizemore signing - I agree - it's just a lottery ticket - and really doesn't have much impact on JBJ. The FO are saying all the right things to give props to Sizemore and light a bit of a fire under JBJ .But, realistically, on what planet can I guy who really hasn't played in four years recover enough skill to be a viable MLB centerfielder? 
 
If he's a threat to anyone it's Carp or Nava. If Sizemore shows anything at all he'll start in Extended spring training or, at the least, a few weeks in Pawtucket on rehab. 

 

[lexrageorge]

 
Isn't the notion that Spring Training numbers don't matter, and not that the actual existence of the games/workouts?
 
I agree with your analysis re: scouting and examining Sizemore and JBJ with regard to, respectively, their health and progression, but I feel like that's something that happens with every player in the spring to some extent. The numbers won't stabilize in the spring, because of sample size and the completely non-standard tasks being asked of the players (ie "only throw curveballs" or "don't swing until 2 strikes" or "swing more" or whatever), but self-scouting should still happen.

I was reacting to a couple of posts that seem to indicate that Spring Training shouldn't be used to evaluate these 2 players, or that JBJ should get the job over Sizemore anyway.
 
I disagree with that sentiment.  Sizemore was once a very good MLB hitter.  JBJ struggled in his 100 MLB at bats last season, and didn't exactly light the IL on fire either.  If the body of work in spring training, which includes game appearances, indicates that Sizemore is healthy and could be effective, while JBJ looks shaky at the plate, then having Sizemore on the roster gives the team the luxury of having JBJ work on things in AAA.  Bradley will only be 24 at the start of the season, and has had only 540 at bats above single A for his career.  Giving him a month or two in the minors is far from the end of the world, nor is it likely to stunt his development.  
 
Maybe spring training isn't the most ideal environment to evaluate the potential impact these 2 players will have in 2014, but it's better than nothing, especially when it comes to a very imperfect science in the first place. 

 

[chrisfont9]

 
The bolded implies that Bradley isn't ready - that giving him the CF gig would be rushing him before he's ready. Which is not really the message you want to send. Mind you, there's nothing wrong with competition.
 
I think the best way to break in a rookie - in which the FO has faith - is to put him in the lineup everyday - give him 400-500 ABs to see if he can make the jump. Screwing around by letting him play 3-4 days a week or platooning does nothing to help his development. If your development people say he's ready then give him a full shot. Don't panic if he's hitting 240/300/380 in May. People keep worrying that he might flop - so what, Given his GG defensive skills, JBJ's floor is still that of a decent player. The upside of developing a homegrown cost controlled 3-4+ win player is so great that it vastly outweighs the loss of a game or two in order to get there.
 
Getting back to the Sizemore signing - I agree - it's just a lottery ticket - and really doesn't have much impact on JBJ. The FO are saying all the right things to give props to Sizemore and light a bit of a fire under JBJ .But, realistically, on what planet can I guy who really hasn't played in four years recover enough skill to be a viable MLB centerfielder? 
 
If he's a threat to anyone it's Carp or Nava. If Sizemore shows anything at all he'll start in Extended spring training or, at the least, a few weeks in Pawtucket on rehab. 

OK, we generally agree, though I probably lean more toward having him wait a bit longer (in AAA) for his shot. Or at least seeing no harm in it. He's still pretty green by AAA standards. I'm not crazy about JBJ sitting on the bench in Boston, that's certain. He needs to be playing somewhere.

 

[Philip Jeff Frye]

Made up your mind already? Fair enough, but obviously the Sox had enough information that he might be healthy to drop $750k and a roster spot, so it seems worth considering that he's healthy.

I'm sorry, I was under the impression that we were allowed to discuss the front office's moves, not just blindly agree with them. 
 
I hope I'm entirely wrong about this and that Sizemore is the comeback player of the year, but I'd rather see JBJ get the opportunity to be rookie of the year or to see what Mike Carp can do with more at bats.  I don't see how having Sizemore around furthers either goal.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I'm sorry, I was under the impression that we were allowed to discuss the front office's moves, not just blindly agree with them. 

 
I lean toward your point of view, but this seems a little gratuitous. It's perfectly reasonable to suggest that if the front office decided to give him a shot, knowing quite as well as we do that it's been two-plus years since he last played, this suggests that they have more recent and relevant (and positive) information about his condition than we do. This is reinforced, if anything, by the fact that the Reds FO is apparently annoyed that Sizemore blindsided them by signing with us. If he's really a basket case with no hope of contributing, he's evidently doing a good job of fooling some people who make a living judging baseball players.

 

[Philip Jeff Frye]

 
I lean toward your point of view, but this seems a little gratuitous. It's perfectly reasonable to suggest that if the front office decided to give him a shot, knowing quite as well as we do that it's been two-plus years since he last played, this suggests that they have more recent and relevant (and positive) information about his condition than we do. This is reinforced, if anything, by the fact that the Reds FO is apparently annoyed that Sizemore blindsided them by signing with us. If he's really a basket case with no hope of contributing, he's evidently doing a good job of fooling some people who make a living judging baseball players.

 
It probably is a little gratuitous, but I was criticized for questioning the front office because they know more about Grady Sizemore's health than I do.  If that's the standard, then nothing here should be discussed because they know a lot more about everything relating to these players than we do.
 
I don't think Sizemore is fooling anybody.  The front office knows he's a risk and they're willing to take that risk.  Without knowing 1% of what they know (which is implicit in everything almost everybody writes here), I'd rather they take different risks.  I hope they are right and I am wrong.  It has certainly happened before.

 

[Harry Agganis]

But as the first days of January passed, the Red Sox weren't one of those teams extending a commitment. That changed when their well-respected coordinator of sports medicine service, Dyrek -- who was best known for healing Bird to the point where the Hall of Famer could play in the 1992 Olympics -- made an appearance at AP.
Sizemore was on the verge of signing with another team ("seconds away" according to one major league source) when Dyrek got the chance to look at the outfielder in Arizona. According to those with knowledge of the situation, the impression made by the Red Sox' medical man was immediate.
Not one person from any of the other visiting teams had offered the message delivered by Dyrek. The man who went a long way to getting David Ortiz on the field (and keeping him on the field) in '13 analyzed Sizemore, recognized what was working and what wasn't, and presented a plan for how the free agent could actually uncover the results he had hoped for almost half a decade. The specifics of the delivery was unlike anything Sizemore had heard.
 
http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/rob-bradford/2014/01/23/how-grady-sizemore-finally-landed-red-sox

 

[Rovin Romine]

The more I think about this, the weirder it seems.  Barring an injury, we're going to be faced with a situation where we're going to have to move someone if we want to keep a  2 year stale, spring training assessed GS on the ML roster.   He might be exposed in ML as not being fully ready, but as our hot start showed last year, all the games count, esp. with home field advantages in the playoffs.  
 
 Or he crashes and burns early and we lose $750k.
 
Basically the risk makes sense, but the upside involves a leap of faith, even if he knocks the snot out of the ball in Spring training.  

 

[DavidTai]

Thinking about it, I don't think this is a hedge against JBJ as much as it is insurance policy for BOTH JBJ and Victorino. Given how often Victorino was playing hurt, maybe the plan here is a JBJ/Victorino/Sizemore timeshare in CF/RF. In Vic is out, JBJ in RF, given Sizemore's arm?

 

[Lowrielicious]

The more I think about this, the weirder it seems.  Barring an injury, we're going to be faced with a situation where we're going to have to move someone if we want to keep a  2 year stale, spring training assessed GS on the ML roster.   He might be exposed in ML as not being fully ready, but as our hot start showed last year, all the games count, esp. with home field advantages in the playoffs.  
 
 Or he crashes and burns early and we lose $750k.
 
Basically the risk makes sense, but the upside involves a leap of faith, even if he knocks the snot out of the ball in Spring training.  

 
I think the possibility of an injury freeing up a spot to solve the roster crunch is the key. Anything that stops JBJ, Shane, Carp, GS or Nava from being active to start the season solves the problem. Actually even an injury to (*touch wood*) Papi solves it as you can slot Carp in to DH and keep him out of the OF rotation.

 

[Jer]

Thinking about it, I don't think this is a hedge against JBJ as much as it is insurance policy for BOTH JBJ and Victorino. Given how often Victorino was playing hurt, maybe the plan here is a JBJ/Victorino/Sizemore timeshare in CF/RF. In Vic is out, JBJ in RF, given Sizemore's arm?

 
But isn't it a lousy insurance policy if the odds of Sizemore staying healthy and being able to hit MLB pitching are remote? If this is the rationale, I sure hope it's plan D or E instead of B or C.

 

[Rasputin]

The more I think about this, the weirder it seems.  Barring an injury, we're going to be faced with a situation where we're going to have to move someone if we want to keep a  2 year stale, spring training assessed GS on the ML roster.   He might be exposed in ML as not being fully ready, but as our hot start showed last year, all the games count, esp. with home field advantages in the playoffs.  
 
 Or he crashes and burns early and we lose $750k.
 
Basically the risk makes sense, but the upside involves a leap of faith, even if he knocks the snot out of the ball in Spring training.  

 
They brought in some competition for the bench OF slot. I don't see how that's weird.
 
And no, I don't put the slightest weight at all from a front office statement that he is here to compete with Bradley.

 

[MentalDisabldLst]

But as the first days of January passed, the Red Sox weren't one of those teams extending a commitment. That changed when their well-respected coordinator of sports medicine service, Dyrek -- who was best known for healing Bird to the point where the Hall of Famer could play in the 1992 Olympics -- made an appearance at AP.
Sizemore was on the verge of signing with another team ("seconds away" according to one major league source) when Dyrek got the chance to look at the outfielder in Arizona. According to those with knowledge of the situation, the impression made by the Red Sox' medical man was immediate.
Not one person from any of the other visiting teams had offered the message delivered by Dyrek. The man who went a long way to getting David Ortiz on the field (and keeping him on the field) in '13 analyzed Sizemore, recognized what was working and what wasn't, and presented a plan for how the free agent could actually uncover the results he had hoped for almost half a decade. The specifics of the delivery was unlike anything Sizemore had heard.
 
http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/rob-bradford/2014/01/23/how-grady-sizemore-finally-landed-red-sox

 
Simply a great article by Bradford.  Doesn't disclose all his sources and you could argue it's a bit one-sided, but it's a nice little window into a side of the business we rarely see.

 

[Rovin Romine]

 
They brought in some competition for the bench OF slot. I don't see how that's weird.
 
And no, I don't put the slightest weight at all from a front office statement that he is here to compete with Bradley.

 
Nothing against competition, as an abstract concept, but that means he's competing against Nava/Gomes, which is even weirder.  Do you trade or release either of those guys (or option, maybe with Nava?) based on a hot spring training for GS?
 
Regardless of what weight you put in the statement (I don't put much weight in it either) we're still left with a "best case" scenario that GS pounds the ball in spring training, just like JBJ did last year, and then we have to make a leap of faith.   That's the part that is bothering me.  We know spring training stats are notoriously not predictive, so why sign him to a major league deal?
 
Maybe there's something in GS's contract that makes this make more sense.  

 

[Rasputin]

 
Nothing against competition, as an abstract concept, but that means he's competing against Nava/Gomes, which is even weirder.  Do you trade or release either of those guys (or option, maybe with Nava?) based on a hot spring training for GS?
 
Regardless of what weight you put in the statement (I don't put much weight in it either) we're still left with a "best case" scenario that GS pounds the ball in spring training, just like JBJ did last year, and then we have to make a leap of faith.   That's the part that is bothering me.  We know spring training stats are notoriously not predictive, so why sign him to a major league deal?
 
Maybe there's something in GS's contract that makes this make more sense.  

 
I don't get why this is a leap of faith. You bring players in. You evaluate them. You make roster decisions. That's the job. If you think Sizemore is going to do a better job than Nava, you keep Sizemore and demote Nava. If you think it's the other way around, you cut Sizemore. If you can find a way to keep both, you probably do that.
 
It's just a roster decision. It's not magic.

 

[Rovin Romine]

 
I don't get why this is a leap of faith. You bring players in. You evaluate them. You make roster decisions. That's the job. If you think Sizemore is going to do a better job than Nava, you keep Sizemore and demote Nava. If you think it's the other way around, you cut Sizemore. If you can find a way to keep both, you probably do that.
 
It's just a roster decision. It's not magic.

 
Sizemore hasn't played in 2 years, plus he's coming off surgery.  If he does well in spring training, there's a significant possibility he's not yet ready for MLB, given that we see marginal players preform well in spring training every year.   Hence the leap of faith (in assigning GS to the ML squad and making other roster moves accordingly.)

 

[Reverend]

 
Simply a great article by Bradford.  Doesn't disclose all his sources and you could argue it's a bit one-sided, but it's a nice little window into a side of the business we rarely see.

 
Did a bit of googling on this Dyrek guy and it looks like another great recent decision by the FO.
 
Fascinating to see that Sizemore may have made his decision based on the opportunity to work with Dyrek.

 

[Rasputin]

 
Sizemore hasn't played in 2 years, plus he's coming off surgery.  If he does well in spring training, there's a significant possibility he's not yet ready for MLB, given that we see marginal players preform well in spring training every year.   Hence the leap of faith (in assigning GS to the ML squad and making other roster moves accordingly.)

 
And?
 
Do you somehow think the people making the decision aren't going to either know or take into account the fact that he hasn't played a full season since 2008?
 
Every single roster decision a team makes is a wager on future production. This one's not magically different just because he hasn't played in two years. I'm not entirely convinced that there's any more uncertainty to projecting him than there is Jackie Bradley or Shane Victorino.
 
The financial risk is minimal. I'm pretty sure Nava can be sent back down so the likelihood of a permanent negative impact on the organization is minimal. The downside is a couple months of poor performance from part of a platoon. The upside is he turns into our every day left fielder for a few years. The more likely side is that he's a contributing bench player.
 
You bring the guy to camp. You evaluate him. You put those evaluations in a team context. You make a decision. You move on. It's just a roster decision, and far from the most important one.

 

[Reverend]

 
And?
 
Do you somehow think the people making the decision aren't going to either know or take into account the fact that he hasn't played a full season since 2008?
 
Every single roster decision a team makes is a wager on future production. This one's not magically different just because he hasn't played in two years. I'm not entirely convinced that there's any more uncertainty to projecting him than there is Jackie Bradley or Shane Victorino.
 
The financial risk is minimal. I'm pretty sure Nava can be sent back down so the likelihood of a permanent negative impact on the organization is minimal. The downside is a couple months of poor performance from part of a platoon. The upside is he turns into our every day left fielder for a few years. The more likely side is that he's a contributing bench player.
 
You bring the guy to camp. You evaluate him. You put those evaluations in a team context. You make a decision. You move on. It's just a roster decision, and far from the most important one.

 
I feel like that in several threads at this point, there has been some hand-wringing over there being too much talent in the organization which will make for some difficult decisions.
 
I get having favorite players and hoping they're not the odd ones out, but as problems go, this fucking kicks ass.

 

[Rasputin]

 
I feel like that in several threads at this point, there has been some hand-wringing over there being too much talent in the organization which will make for some difficult decisions.
 
I get having favorite players and hoping they're not the odd ones out, but as problems go, this fucking kicks ass.

 
Don't be that kid who thought losing Nick Punto's understudy was worth the wailing and gnashing of teeth.

 

[TheYaz67]

 
Every single roster decision a team makes is a wager on future production. This one's not magically different just because he hasn't played in two years. I'm not entirely convinced that there's any more uncertainty to projecting him than there is Jackie Bradley or Shane Victorino.

 
Well, I think you are talking about projecting baseball stats (and are right about that), and RR is talking about projecting health over 162 games, and it should be obvious that GS is a bigger injury risk than most other guys on the team....

 

[Rasputin]

 
Well, I think you are talking about projecting baseball stats (and are right about that), and RR is talking about projecting health over 162 games, and it should be obvious that GS is a bigger injury risk than most other guys on the team....

Sure, but there is probably no chance that anyone in the organization thinks he's an everyday starter. He's also a lot more talented than a guy like Nava. We've got shit for outfield depth and Sizemore is another option when we need options.

 

[Drek717]

 
But isn't it a lousy insurance policy if the odds of Sizemore staying healthy and being able to hit MLB pitching are remote? If this is the rationale, I sure hope it's plan D or E instead of B or C.

It's not a lousy insurance policy when the Sox can move on to plan C, D, etc. quickly if plan B isn't working out.
 
Look at it this way, prior to adding Sizemore plan B for an injury to Bradley/Victorino was Alex Hassan in RF (be with the healthy one of the previous group in CF).  Plan C Bryce Brentz being rushed up to the majors after missing a good bit of time last yer and scuffling a bit in his first full look at AAA pitching.  Plan D was one of Justin Henry or Shannon Wilkerson.
 
None of those options are gone, they've all just moved down one rung on the ladder.  This is how you build deep depth.  So Sizemore is a boom/bust project who might never contribute anything.  Sure, but the opportunity cost is low, the payoff is could potentially be very high, and the alternatives with him are the same as the alternatives without him.
 
It's a lot like bringing Drew back and having X, WMB, and Drew share 3B/SS and MI work.  Right now the backup MI options are Herrera and Holt.  Adding Drew doesn't lose either Herrera or Holt, it just moves them one step down the depth chart.
 
This is how you build that vaunted "deep depth".  By adding veterans between the ML roster locks and the guys on the AAA to MLB fence.  The confidence level in the later player decides the quality you shoot for in that veteran.  The Sox have a lot of confidence in JBJ so they'll take a risky veteran like Sizemore as that buffer player knowing JBJ is probably going to take the job from him and they'll waive Sizemore, only out $750K, and they might even be able to talk Sizemore into a AAA stint to shake off the rust and buy them some additional evaluation time.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Jackie understands this decision is not based on his ability but on the unfortunate fact that he is the only player involved in the discussion with minor league options available.  We fully expect him to be back up with the big club in a short time, and to have a very long tenure in the outfield of the Boston Red Sox
 

 

[lexrageorge]

Interesting that folks think the "downside" is the chance (albeit highly unlikely) that Sizemore comes to spring training and hits 0.750 with 7 HR's.  There's 30 GM's out there that would consider that "downside" to be a nice problem to have.  

 

[joe dokes]

The hand-wringing over this is pretty unbelievable. It sems to boil down to, "OMG---What if he's healthy and good?"  That is never a problem.
 
They aren't getting rid of anyone important to make room for him if he demonstrates health and skill in ST. Which is another way of saying, "In case you haven't noticed, while the FO isn't perfect, it isn't being run by morons easily distracted by shiny objects."  
 
This isn't "lets see if 36 y/o Chone Figgins who recently sucked even when healthy, can come back and magically be useful again."  Sizemore is only 6 months older than Nava. He was a great player. This isn't an insurance policy so much as a lottery ticket. There is no downside to this that isn't dependent on a scenario where some other GM spikes the Sox front office coffe pot.
 
They want to see if they have the 1985-86 version of Bill Walton. 

 

[yecul]

Healthy and good is not a problem. Healthy and mediocre enough to stick for a month or two is the problem. If he's awful or hurt you dump him. If he's awesome then you're psyched. It's the lower end of that middle ground -- the highest percentage spot for him to land, IMO -- is the issue. 

He displaces JBJ. He drags the club for a while until they decide to cut bait. That is the most concerning scenario.
 
We will see how it all hashes out, but the above is a very realistic scenario. The Sox would like to retain and maximize their available resources. Given that JBJ has options I imagine SS will have to show a bit less than awesome to be given a shot.

 

[joe dokes]

Healthy and good is not a problem. Healthy and mediocre enough to stick for a month or two is the problem. If he's awful or hurt you dump him. If he's awesome then you're psyched. It's the lower end of that middle ground -- the highest percentage spot for him to land, IMO -- is the issue. 

He displaces JBJ. He drags the club for a while until they decide to cut bait. That is the most concerning scenario.
 
We will see how it all hashes out, but the above is a very realistic scenario. The Sox would like to retain and maximize their available resources. Given that JBJ has options I imagine SS will have to show a bit less than awesome to be given a shot.

 
I think that they think that if he's healthy and projects to remain normally so -- can participate in the full run of drills every day, can play several days in a row, etc -- that "good" (good enough to be a backup ML OF anyway) is the likely outcome, regardless of the ST stats.  I'd be shocked if he starts ahead of an uninjured JBJ in CF (unless its a gracious "vet gets the Opening Day start" thing), no matter the ST results.   I dont think he'll play enough otherwise to be a drag.   I can't imagine they see him as more than a 200 PA guy. I think they'll know about his health before ST is over, and if he's still progressing, he'll agree to a DL stint/extended ST/minor league rehab to work it out.
 
 
But, as you say, we'll see.

 

[KillerBs]

 
I think that they think that if he's healthy and projects to remain normally so -- can participate in the full run of drills every day, can play several days in a row, etc -- that "good" (good enough to be a backup ML OF anyway) is the likely outcome, regardless of the ST stats.  I'd be shocked if he starts ahead of an uninjured JBJ in CF (unless its a gracious "vet gets the Opening Day start" thing), no matter the ST results.   I dont think he'll play enough otherwise to be a drag.   I can't imagine they see him as more than a 200 PA guy. I think they'll know about his health before ST is over, and if he's still progressing, he'll agree to a DL stint/extended ST/minor league rehab to work it out.
 
 
But, as you say, we'll see.

 
Bradley as the starter in center with Sizemore in reserve on the 25 man roster makes sense in a vacuum, I suppose, but as pointed out it would require moving Gomes.Nava or Carp, all of whom project to be better than Sizemore.  Hard to see it making sense to move one of those guiys to rely on Sizemore playing a key role.
 
As for the potential of sending JBJ down to AAA,to start the year, color me less than excited with an OF left to right of Nava/Gomes -- Sizemore -- Victorino or Nava/Gomes -- Victorino -- Sizemore, especially if Sizemore has lost a step or 3.
 
yecul's got it precisely right IMO: the risk of this signing is not about $$, but that the team gives him significant playing time and he sucks (e.g. hitting at the level he did in 2009-2010 with mediocre defense) but doesn't suck enough. quick enough, to justify pulling the plug on the experiment before July.

 

[seantoo]

I'm sorry, I was under the impression that we were allowed to discuss the front office's moves, not just blindly agree with them. 
 
I hope I'm entirely wrong about this and that Sizemore is the comeback player of the year, but I'd rather see JBJ get the opportunity to be rookie of the year or to see what Mike Carp can do with more at bats.  I don't see how having Sizemore around furthers either goal.

Sizemore if healthy will back-up center with JBJ backing up right, therefore essesntially Sizemore affords us back-up at 2 spots where we had none. This type of move was an obvious neccessity. If Sizemore somehow regains his prior form then we have a good problem on our hand. I'm sure the Sox would wait for a while after Sizemore proves his health before they felt comfortable it to make any other possible roster moves. By the end of ST, one of Gomes or Carp will become expendable and personally I hope it's Gomes. Carp is a better hitter and has more flexibility in the field. Gomes playing over Nava was my only real complaint with Farrell during the playoffs. 

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

Sizemore if healthy will back-up center with JBJ backing up right, therefore essesntially Sizemore affords us back-up at 2 spots where we had none. This type of move was an obvious neccessity. If Sizemore somehow regains his prior form then we have a good problem on our hand. I'm sure the Sox would wait for a while after Sizemore proves his health before they felt comfortable it to make any other possible roster moves. By the end of ST, one of Gomes or Carp will become expendable and personally I hope it's Gomes. Carp is a better hitter and has more flexibility in the field. Gomes playing over Nava was my only real complaint with Farrell during the playoffs. 

 
You see, this sums up the problem perfectly. You want the roster rearranged if Sizemore is still healthy at the end of ST. Either Gomes (unlikely because he's a RH) or Carp/Nava will have to be moved if Sizemore is on the roster. Nava still has options I believe so you could send him down and not have to lose a player. But that's a terrible message to send to Nava who had an outstanding season last year and now he's not even in the majors because a washed up has been manages to make it through 6 weeks of baseball drills.
 
But even if Sizemore manages to be healthy and productive by Opening Day what's the likelihood of him remaining that way? I just can't see trading someone given his injury history. I'd want to see him play real baseball for at least a couple of months before even remotely consider making any roster adjustments. Cherington seems to agree ..
 
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/01/al-east-links-blue-jays-drew-sizemore-red-sox.html

 

Red Sox GM Ben Cherington told Jason Mastrodonato of MassLive.com that despite signing Grady Sizemore to a Major League deal, there are no guarantees that the former Indians star will make the Opening Day roster. Cherington didn't rule out a minor league assignment for Sizemore.
 
 

 
 
Of course, sending him to Pawtucket will require waivers - and if he shows anything there's a pretty good chance he would be claimed (given the cheap salary).