Sox sign Rusney Castillo to 7-year/$72.5M deal (2014-2020)
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It was the first pitch of the game for the Sox lineup, on a belt-high FB.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C8sN2r2u0Jg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C8sN2r2u0Jg
Was at the game today in Charlotte. Glad to see him go yard, too bad the rain rolled in though.
Who had the brilliant idea to hold a minor league game (championship or not) at a neutral field? Following the rain delay there couldn't have been more than 40-50 fans in the entire park. It was pathetic to see the backs of every seat from behind the mound once play resumed with the exception of that one kid.The Celtbot said:
Rusney certainly "looks" like a major league ball player. This should make for a fun final two weeks anyway.
scoreboard had the pitch he hit the HR as 86mph. I assume that's a fastball?? If so, that's a bad fastball
I wasn't sure why they did that either. It didn't help holding the game on a Tuesday night either. I had to get my pregnant wife home for her 10pm bedtimeHomeRunBaker said:
HomeRunBaker said:
The Celtbot said:I wasn't sure why they did that either. It didn't help holding the game on a Tuesday night either. I had to get my pregnant wife home for her 10pm bedtime
It's the Super Bowl for minor league teams. A reward for a new stadium or for years of meritorious service. Announcing a location in advance means ticket sales (nearly 9000). Compare that to the crowds the Pawsox and Omaha drew in their respective league championships (under 4000 averages) and you'll see the advantages of doing it this way. A game on National TV with no one in the stands even in the 2nd inning isn't a good way to sell your sport.
That's the problem though since all you saw were empty seats behind home plate. Less than half the available tickets were sold the day before the game even as they attempted to give them away and few fans of the participating teams would be making the trip as they only had 48 hour notice that their team would be playing in this weeknight game. It was a horrible idea.Lose Remerswaal said:
HomeRunBaker said:
Then where to have it, if you're going to have it? We already saw the Pawtucket, Durham, Omaha and Reno couldn't sell tickets to their league finals even though the home teams were playing in those games.
JimD said:
I'd be interested in seeing the ratings, but my guess is just folks like us, and families of the players involved.
Either keep it in front of the home fans or don't even play the game. Nobody in Charlotte cared who won the game as season ticket holders were practically bribed to attend to "celebrate the new stadium" (that they already spend the season celebrating).Lose Remerswaal said:
Home fans won't work, as shown in the league finals. This way (like the Super Bowl, but .001% as big) you have a venue, fans, and employees lined up to attend the game. At Pawtucket last week they didn't have any of those, other than the venue, and even that was tired and out of most concessions.
This is from the 12th, but it's a good read and goes into great detail about his offensive upside and the weaknesses in his swing. The author, Dan Farnsworth, is more adept at breaking down hitting, so that area of the scouting report is much more robust, but it's a solid read all the way through.
Here's the summary:
I'm pretty sure he's being sarcastic with the first sentence there. Regardless, it's a pretty encouraging write up if you weren't expecting a stud out of this deal. If they are likely to get a league average player for a little over ten million a year, I think we have to be happy with that. Getting a few years of something better than that could turn this into a very good deal.
I'm sure people will lament a low .300 OBP but if he can get his SLG up a little higher than the projected .430, maybe into the .450 range, he should be a better than average corner outfield bat. The average right field OPS is .734 this year, and in left it's .727. For a starting caliber player it's obviously a bit higher than that. It doesn't look likely that we're going to get a superstar player or even a Cespedes, but the floor looks sufficiently high enough to be confident he'll earn his contract.
Additionally, the projected line of 268/308/430 seems to fit with the shift toward SLG and away from OBP that has been unfolding over the last year. A .430 SLG would be .036 above average for CF, .020 above average for RF and .024 above for LF. Again, he likely won't be elite for any position, but for 10 million a season, getting a league average player or better should make the front office happy.
Here's the summary:
I'm pretty sure he's being sarcastic with the first sentence there. Regardless, it's a pretty encouraging write up if you weren't expecting a stud out of this deal. If they are likely to get a league average player for a little over ten million a year, I think we have to be happy with that. Getting a few years of something better than that could turn this into a very good deal.
I'm sure people will lament a low .300 OBP but if he can get his SLG up a little higher than the projected .430, maybe into the .450 range, he should be a better than average corner outfield bat. The average right field OPS is .734 this year, and in left it's .727. For a starting caliber player it's obviously a bit higher than that. It doesn't look likely that we're going to get a superstar player or even a Cespedes, but the floor looks sufficiently high enough to be confident he'll earn his contract.
Additionally, the projected line of 268/308/430 seems to fit with the shift toward SLG and away from OBP that has been unfolding over the last year. A .430 SLG would be .036 above average for CF, .020 above average for RF and .024 above for LF. Again, he likely won't be elite for any position, but for 10 million a season, getting a league average player or better should make the front office happy.
Most projections seem to place him in the Desmond Jennings class, with Shane Victorino upside, though with less OBP. Given his prime age, $10M per seems reasonable for that kind of player.
Do you see him as a Centerfielder or Right Fielder? Hard to tell from that assessment.
Also, based on that piece, where would you put him in the batting order?
{edit: I get more of a RF vibe, particularly in FW...and batting somewhere 6-8, maybe even 9 if you go with the "speed at 9-1" meme}
Also, based on that piece, where would you put him in the batting order?
{edit: I get more of a RF vibe, particularly in FW...and batting somewhere 6-8, maybe even 9 if you go with the "speed at 9-1" meme}
Minneapolis Millers said:
Well, fangraphs suggests that a win on the open market could be worth as much as 7 million. Even if we go with the old 5 million per, he projects to be a fairly safe bet to be worth his contract. If the 7 million dollar figure is accurate, he could be a very good bargain even at 2 WAR a year.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-early-look-at-the-price-of-a-win-this-off-season/
We probably won't be able to really pin down his value each individual year with as much accuracy as we'd like because of how much value he derives from his defense and base running, but if he can get his offense to a point where he's worth around 1 WAR with the bat, it's not hard to envision him getting to or eclipsing 2 wins with the rest of his game. Obviously, a large sample of consistently good or bad UZR's or dWAR's will give us a better idea of his actual value in hindsight, and I'm talking about his value over the entire contract here, so a more stable sample size of defensive data is assumed.
WEEI.com's Rob Bradford reports that Rusney Castillo will play in both the Arizona Fall League and the Puerto Rican Winter League this offseason.
I did a little Excel-wrangling to see if I could come up with season stats that would replicate Farnsworth's projected slash line for Castillo, given the qualitative comments he makes about Castillo's likely K rate ("low to medium"), BB rate ("low"), and BABIP ("high"). I interpreted those adjectives as meaning roughly 18%, 5%, and .320.
Here's what I came up with. This is for 600 PA.
AB: 556
H: 149
2B: 52
3B: 7
HR: 8
K: 108
BB: 28
HBP: 6
SF: 5
SH: 5
This produces the projected slash line of .268/.308/.430.
That's a crapload of doubles, obviously, but a crapload of doubles is the only way I could find to get a .162 ISO for a guy who has a low-ish BA despite moderate K and good BABIP numbers. He wouldn't have double-figure HR, because that would push the BA too high unless you up the K or lower the BABIP projection. So that ISO has to come from somewhere.
And really, given what Farnsworth says about Castillo's swing type and propensity to hit low rockets, coupled with his speed, a crapload of doubles at Fenway seems entirely possible.
His description of Castillo's defense made it sound like he would be a very good fit for RF at Fenway.
Here's what I came up with. This is for 600 PA.
AB: 556
H: 149
2B: 52
3B: 7
HR: 8
K: 108
BB: 28
HBP: 6
SF: 5
SH: 5
This produces the projected slash line of .268/.308/.430.
That's a crapload of doubles, obviously, but a crapload of doubles is the only way I could find to get a .162 ISO for a guy who has a low-ish BA despite moderate K and good BABIP numbers. He wouldn't have double-figure HR, because that would push the BA too high unless you up the K or lower the BABIP projection. So that ISO has to come from somewhere.
And really, given what Farnsworth says about Castillo's swing type and propensity to hit low rockets, coupled with his speed, a crapload of doubles at Fenway seems entirely possible.
His description of Castillo's defense made it sound like he would be a very good fit for RF at Fenway.
Lose, there were no fans lined up though. They had sold 4,000 tickets through a hardcore concerted effort to market the game. They were trying to give tickets away the day of the game and the announced attendance of 8800 is laughable. When they showed the view to start the game I'd guess 4k max and following the rain delay I'm not kidding there weren't more than 60 people left. Sixty.Lose Remerswaal said:
Savin Hillbilly said:
I got the impression that Farnsworth also predicts a lot of hard-hit topspin ground balls through the infield, but he didn't explicitly address the widespread use of shifts in the Majors. Has anyone established a spray chart for this guy (albeit one that doesn't consider major league pitching)?
Lose Remerswaal said:
Well lucky for me that game will be in El Paso next year. I'm definately going to that. And hopefully the PawSox are in it again. Given my geographic location, it may be the one time I'm able to enjoy Red Sox minor league baseball.
geoduck no quahog said:
That's an interesting point--and the shift could lower the BABIP considerably. If you reduce the BABIP to .310, then the power numbers to produce the projected BA and SLG become a more reasonable-looking 15 HR, 5 triples, 35 doubles.
SSS and all, but his run through the minors doesn't look out of line with that kind of output. His K rate and walk rate were both a little higher, but given it was only 45 PAs or so, it's certainly consistent with that.
Let's keep in mind that the guy didn't play for a year+ and as Stephen Drew taught us, 45 PAs is not enough to be ready for the Show. It was good to see him doing fairly well in the minors as it relieved a little bit of the worry of him tanking. I'm glad he's going to winter ball and I expect him to be better than what we see over the next 2 weeks.djhb20 said:
Holy shit, only 11 more games left of the season!
:cryyoupussy:
How would the PRWL rank in talent? AA? A? Honestly no idea. I know the AFL but not the quality of most winter leagues outside of Cuba and that's because I read it on here.
450 PAs wouldn't have been enough for Stephen Drew. Some guys wake up swinging the bat for hits.Hee Sox Choi said:
The Farnsworth WAR projection is off. As the comment section on the article discusses, he failed to understand how WAR works when adding up his numbers. The player he initially projected is about a 3.5 WAR player. He then declares that he can't believe Castillo is a 3+ win player. He subsequently declares his initial projections to have been 65th percentile projections, which helps get the expected result back to what he initially wanted. Of course, after seeing that process play out, it calls into question whether the initial assessments are valid or whether they were a first and flawed attempt to describe Castillo's skills in a way that conformed to Farnsworth's preconceived notion of his expected value.
That article is interesting for the written descriptions of what Farnsworth sees. I would place absolutely no weight on his projections, all things considered.
That article is interesting for the written descriptions of what Farnsworth sees. I would place absolutely no weight on his projections, all things considered.
I understand the need to get him playing again, but worry that is a recipe for a very tired player next August. Hopefully they cut off his PRL season in early January and at least give him a full month off before spring training.Hee Sox Choi said:
Remy said that the plan was to get him a total of approx 200 at bats between all the leagues and then give him an off season. This includes his Minor and Major League at bats.Plympton91 said:
Sounds like a sane plan.
Rusney can score from second on a hard single to left any time he wants.
His body type reminds me of Rickey and Vince, though he's not quite that fast.
His body type reminds me of Rickey and Vince, though he's not quite that fast.
I don't want to get irrationally exuberant, but Castillo hit two balls tonight that would've been HR in every park (one was a double very high off the wall) and made a nice catch in CF. That's pretty nice work for a guy who has been playing for about a month after taking over a year off from baseball.
MyDaughterLovesTomGordon said:
Before we get too excited about that particular play, they clearly seemed to be running on a LFer with a terrible arm. Even a remotely decent throw would have had Castillo out by 5 feet at the plate. That play was 1 part Castillo's speed, 1 part good scouting report, and 1 part good awareness by the 3B coach.
JMDurron said:
Agreed, but regardless, Rusney showed off three potentially plus tools last night - his power, his range in CF, and his speed on the bases. On the basket catch in CF, I originally thought it was going way over his head, as he was jogging (thought it was going to hit the wall or something). Then all of a sudden he picked up the pace a bit and made a very tough catch look totally routine. I don't love the Andruw Jones-style nonchalance, but I do love the skills it took to pull it off.
But but you guys, Nick Cafardo told me Castillo ran a 4.2 to first once, which means he's never gonna make it!
I'm excited as I was a bit terrified he might strike out half the time and never, ever walk.
extremely SSS - but 5 K's & 2 BB's in 27 AB's is real promising, especially the 5 K's
I'd be happy if he has a 5% BB % and even a 20% K %. With that type of reasonable baseline and all his athletic tools, he will be a big plus.
As I said, my concern is that he could be a 2 or 3 % BB guy with a 25-30% K guy which means he might hit like WMB the last couple of years.
extremely SSS - but 5 K's & 2 BB's in 27 AB's is real promising, especially the 5 K's
I'd be happy if he has a 5% BB % and even a 20% K %. With that type of reasonable baseline and all his athletic tools, he will be a big plus.
As I said, my concern is that he could be a 2 or 3 % BB guy with a 25-30% K guy which means he might hit like WMB the last couple of years.
Showed off the 4th tool earlier in the series gunning down a runner at the plate.jscola85 said:
It seemed to me that he hit the double off the end of the bat a little bit and it still was a ball that's probably a HR anywhere else.
Yeah, I mean its not like hes giving up the chance to sell it at auction for thousands of dollars. He could have gotten the autograph and Im sure a few baseballs if he wanted. Why would you hold out like that? Not cool at all.
Tharkin said:
Exactly. A ball like that has to mean so much more to the player (or his family) than it possibly could to the person who caught it. Been to hundreds of games over the last 45 years; never really sniffed a ball during a game, fair or foul, but I've actually thought about this. All I'd ask for (I think) is a picture of me giving the player the ball which he hopefully would sign (the picture, that is).
Imagine IF this dude has this kind of sustained power?!?!
Nice to dream
No last place finish next year as long as Craig gets no ABs
Nice to dream
No last place finish next year as long as Craig gets no ABs
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