SOSH Real Fantasy Draft 2014: Draft Order, Rules, and Draft Thread

[Fishercat]

Yeah, I followed Soxfan's lead on the bullpen last year and it worked really well for me. RPs in the 16th, 19th, 21st, 22nd, 24th, and 25th, 5.5 fangraphs WAR between the six (5.9 if you exclude Aceves, who I needed as a starter for my rotation anyway) with all five of my main guys below a 3 in ERA

 

[MakMan44]

I know exactly who I want to pick and I am going to be soooo pissed if he's gets picked by CNF. 

 

[Why Not Grebeck?]

We're pretty much past all of the 'young, elite, and healthy' players. So now you have your choice of:
 
- 30-32 year old perennial all-stars whose best days are likely behind them but are still excellent.
- 20-24 year old players who haven't totally proven themselves but have MVP ceilings if everything breaks right.
- Young and elite players with injury histories or serious risks/red flags.

 

[The Tax Man]

I just sent a message to Casknfappin.  Sorry I dropped the ball on that one.  

 

[Moosey]

We're pretty much past all of the 'young, elite, and healthy' players. So now you have your choice of:
 
- 30-32 year old perennial all-stars whose best days are likely behind them but are still excellent.
- 20-24 year old players who haven't totally proven themselves but have MVP ceilings if everything breaks right.
- Young and elite players with injury histories or serious risks/red flags.

 
Good thing you said pretty much because I think there are at least 2 of your first category left.  Im going to happily munch my popcorn and see how this breaks.  =)

 

[Why Not Grebeck?]

 
Good thing you said pretty much because I think there are at least 2 of your first category left.  Im going to happily munch my popcorn and see how this breaks.  =)

 
Yeah, at least two, probably more like 6-7 if you're willing to range up a little further in age. As for me at the wheel, I need to learn not to get excited about players falling to me too early. I had at least one daydream about Chris Davis yesterday. 

 

[MakMan44]

Jason Heyward RF
 

 
Just a year ago, Heyward was among the top ten most valuable OFs in all of MLB. He then got struck with a rash of random injuries (minus the shoulder problems at the beginning of the season) that caused him to post his lowest PA total in his short career. There were some positives last season though. He managed to cut his SOs in half while nearly matching his 2012 BB total. He also put up a positive wRC+ and none of his other stats are really out of line with his career numbers outside of his HR/FB ratio. Heyward is only 24 and it's not hard to imagine him coming back strong next season. He's good on both sides of the ball, having yet to post a negative UZR in RF. This guy can be an elite talent and I'm ecstatic I got him at the number 25 spot. 

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

Very solid pick Mak. I honestly had pretty much forgotten about him because of his quiet season. If he can stay healthy he definitely has the tools to be an upper echelon player in the league. 

 

[Frank Fenway]

Heyward is a great pick there
 
and classic mak, makes his pick the exact 24-hour mark
 
Next three guys are all on right now, can we get a little momentum 

 

[Kramerica Industries]

3B David Wright
 

 
 
 
For me, it came down to two players...I hope he comes back to me!!

 

[MakMan44]

Heyward is a great pick there
 
and classic mak, makes his pick the exact 24-hour mark
 
Next three guys are all on right now, can we get a little momentum 

I'll be honest, it's starting to piss me off that we had 3 skips in the first round. People knew what they signed up for and two of the guys have been on in their respective time frames. 

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

As you can all imagine, I don't give a shit about steroids.
 

\
 
Ryan Braun, LF, Brewers
 
Kid had 7+ WAR in 2011 and 2012, then served his steroid suspension last year. Here's hoping for a big time bounce back.
 
(Seriously? I got him with the 27th pick? Idiots...)
 
To add some context...
 
I understand theres some concerns about his steroid issue, but holy shit is this kid good. Aside from last year, he's played 6 years in the MLB. He's had MVP votes every year. He's won the MVP once, and finished 2nd and 3rd once. He's a five time all star and a 5 tool player. If he bounces back, he's a top 5 player that I got in the bottom of the first round.

 

[The Best Catch in 100 Years]

Good pick. I would have taken Braun over Davis and probably any non-Kershaw starter

 

[The Best Catch in 100 Years]

Also, should we be actively seeking out pinch-pickers, if not outright replacements for the two guys that have been skipped?

 

[MakMan44]

Also, should we be actively seeking out pinch-pickers, if not outright replacements for the two guys that have been skipped?

Scoops is just about due to pick, I'm sure he'll having a ruling when he gets on. 

 

[The Tax Man]

I don't think we can progress to far in this draft if we don't come up with a solution for the two players that haven't picked.  If we get to the end of the first round and they haven't surfaced, we should find replacements.   We can give those replacements the last two picks in the first round.  No one is going to want a team that basically didn't have a first round pick.  If these guys aren't around for round 1 what is the likelihood we can depend on them in round 20?

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

Or we could just get rid of those slots and roll with a 28 person draft (or however many people we'd have...)

 

[Frank Fenway]

Or we could just get rid of those slots and roll with a 28 person draft (or however many people we'd have...)

Seconded

 

[terrisus]

Seconded

 
Thirded. 
 
At this point, with no players on those two teams, that seems the easiest path, as opposed to trying to come up with two replacement GMs on short notice.
 
They can be what the Minnesota Twins wanted to become.

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

I'm against that idea. I'd prefer pinch pickers. To me the whole point is that there are 30 teams.

 

[The Best Catch in 100 Years]

Maybe we should pause after all the present owners have picked and try to find fill-in owners who can pick as if they were drafting 29th and 30th all along (so they'd have the first two picks in the second round too).

 

[MakMan44]

I'm with the drop to 28 if we must crowd but if someone wants to step up and grab a team before then, that's fine. 

 

[The Tax Man]

I think I'd prefer to pause the draft and find two managers to take over the 29th and 30th teams.  And slot them in as if they had the last two picks all along.  Maybe with another thread we could find two easily?  If we can't find two then dropping to 28 works for me.  

 

[terrisus]

Frankly, I'd rather be the 30th pick than the 20th - picking in the middle of a draft sucks, I would much rather be at the end and get two picks in a row. Not sure how the people near the end feel (it doesn't really affect me too much since I am in the middle), but, I wouldn't really be in favor of mixing up the draft order after it had already been set.

 

[Scoops Bolling]

If anyone wants to GM a team, speak up now. Let's give it 24 hours after Grebeck has made his pick (once we get there) to see if anyone wants to take over a team. If not, we'll have to consolidate just to keep this exercise moving.

 

[Why Not Grebeck?]

OK, I was planning on two picks in a row, but I'll just make my first pick when it's my turn.

 

[Fishercat]

I don't have an issue being a pinch picker for one of the teams if needed. I'm not sure how good the picks will be but I obviously won't tank them. I'd prefer not to be the actual team owner, but if you want to keep 30 teams, I can fill in until someone wants to step in

 

[The Tax Man]

If Grebeck wants to keep his 30th pick that should be his option. Once we get to Grebeck's pick, I think we should start a new thread and try to find two new managers for the 28th and 29th picks.  If that doesn't work in 24 hrs., we move forward with 28 teams.  

 

[Leskanic's Thread]

Anchoring my middle infield defense, shoring up the top of my lineup, and willing to be of assistance for any Pink Floyd-related planetarium displays we may need, the Albuquerque Hermanos (aka The Pollos) draft Dustin Pedroia - 2B
 

 
edit: Came back to PM Scoops, but he was on top of his shit.  So...never mind.

 

[MakMan44]

Nice choice, Pedey was my back up pick if Heyward was chosen. 

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

Can't go wrong with Pedroia. Solid pick.

 

[The Best Catch in 100 Years]

If Grebeck wants to keep his 30th pick that should be his option. Once we get to Grebeck's pick, I think we should start a new thread and try to find two new managers for the 28th and 29th picks.  If that doesn't work in 24 hrs., we move forward with 28 teams.  

I am in favor of this.

 

[Scoops Bolling]

God. Damn. It.
 
Braun, Wright, and Pedroia were the three offensive guys I saw slipping and thought I might have a chance to build around. There's still a bunch of interesting hitters available, but they all seem more like 2nd round options to me...there's not much differentiating any of them. So, I'm going to go in a completely different direction than last year, and snag myself an ace. He's the reigning AL Cy Young winner, is one of the 5 most valuable pitchers in baseball over the past two seasons, and one goofy looking bastard...
SP-Max Scherzer

 

[MakMan44]

Scherzer's eyes freak me out. That's all I got. 

 

[Just a bit outside]

Scherzer's eyes freak me out. That's all I got. 

Even his goggles are two different colors.

 

[terrisus]

SP-Max Scherzer

 
Darn. I was hoping he might slip back to me, and then I could have the Detroit Tigers Dugout Interview All-Stars.

 

[SumnerH]

Even his goggles are two different colors.

3D Goggles!

 

[Why Not Grebeck?]

This pick is brutal. I wanted to come out of my first two picks with an ace and a true power threat for the #3 hole, but with Scherzer off the board there's probably 4-5 pitchers I still like equally well. The only hitters I like right now are either too unproven or too old for a true dynasty draft.
 
Stuck between pitching and hitting, I've decided to take...neither.
 
With their first round pick, the Burbank Bombers select...Andrelton Simmons, SS.
 

 
Simmons just turned 24 years old. He is the best defensive player in baseball, and it's not close. Anyone watching him play can see it. Advanced stats back it up. He'll certainly be a worse hitter than anyone else taken in this round, but he somehow ran into 17 home runs last season. That's quite a lot of power for a young, skinny dude. There's no doubt he's got enough power to stick in a line-up for the next decade and a half. 
 
Heck, according to the version of WAR that ESPN uses, Simmons lead ALL SHORTSTOPS in WAR this year. At age 24. There's a shot he'll get even better. There's very little chance he'll get much worse. 
 
It's a hoary old adage, but defense doesn't slump. Simmons is going to be the Bombers' rock up the middle for the next ten years. 

 

[ForceAtHome]

I have been curious to find out where Simmons would land in this draft. I thought he might be a late first round pick. Needless to say, Simmons is super athletic and an incredible defensive player. I expect his bat to improve. As you alluded to, he has some decent pull power for a player of his profile. I would not be surprised to see Simmons hit 15-20 homers a few more times.
 
If last year was his true defensive level (which it is looking like it may be) and his bat improves a bit (likely in my opinion), I like this pick a lot. You should let him pitch, too -- he threw 98 MPH in college.

 

[Frank Fenway]

This pick is brutal. I wanted to come out of my first two picks with an ace and a true power threat for the #3 hole, but with Scherzer off the board there's probably 4-5 pitchers I still like equally well. The only hitters I like right now are either too unproven or too old for a true dynasty draft.
 
Stuck between pitching and hitting, I've decided to take...neither.
 
With their first round pick, the Burbank Bombers select...Andrelton Simmons, SS.
 

 
Simmons just turned 24 years old. He is the best defensive player in baseball, and it's not close. Anyone watching him play can see it. Advanced stats back it up. He'll certainly be a worse hitter than anyone else taken in this round, but he somehow ran into 17 home runs last season. That's quite a lot of power for a young, skinny dude. There's no doubt he's got enough power to stick in a line-up for the next decade and a half. 
 
Heck, according to the version of WAR that ESPN uses, Simmons lead ALL SHORTSTOPS in WAR this year. At age 24. There's a shot he'll get even better. There's very little chance he'll get much worse. 
 
It's a hoary old adage, but defense doesn't slump. Simmons is going to be the Bombers' rock up the middle for the next ten years. 

 
ESPN has their own WAR? What? Why? How? 

 

[ForceAtHome]

 
ESPN has their own WAR? What? Why? How? 

 
ESPN's WAR looks like it's just bWAR with the occasional rounding (?) difference. For example, ESPN has Goldschmidt at 7.0 WAR for last year whereas Baseball-Ref has him at 7.1 WAR. Similarly, ESPN has Simmons at 6.7 WAR while he's at 6.8 WAR on Basebal-Ref. A quick cross comparison shows most players with identical numbers though.

 

[Scoops Bolling]

I have been curious to find out where Simmons would land in this draft. I thought he might be a late first round pick. Needless to say, Simmons is super athletic and an incredible defensive player. I expect his bat to improve. As you alluded to, he has some decent pull power for a player of his profile. I would not be surprised to see Simmons hit 15-20 homers a few more times.
 
If last year was his true defensive level (which it is looking like it may be) and his bat improves a bit (likely in my opinion), I like this pick a lot. You should let him pitch, too -- he threw 98 MPH in college.

As the team that took Andrus in the 1st round under this logic last year (and Andrus had a much longer track record than did Simmons at the time)...it can turn both ways. He could get better. He could also get worse. No bat guys are risky no matter how you slice it.

 

[Why Not Grebeck?]

As the team that took Andrus in the 1st round under this logic last year (and Andrus had a much longer track record than did Simmons at the time)...it can turn both ways. He could get better. He could also get worse. No bat guys are risky no matter how you slice it.

 
Yeah, there are a couple of shortstops that would have (or probably were) first round picks last year who have been kind of disappointing in their development. My hope is that Simmons' defense is so elite that he can survive a couple of down years with the bat if needed. Kind of disappointing to be slotting my first round pick in the 7-spot of my lineup, though, and I'm probably going to have to make an unusual pick or two later to make up for it and make certain that my offense can compete in the short term. 

 

[czar]

Given how this draft has gone, there are a handful (three?) guys I am shocked are still on the board. I would have them higher than about 5-7 of the people who have gone already. I think people are vastly overestimating the average improvement in value from a player's mid-20's onward. A lot of people are drafting guys and assuming they will improve 200% when they hit their peak, which is unrealistic.

ESPN's WAR looks like it's just bWAR with the occasional rounding (?) difference. For example, ESPN has Goldschmidt at 7.0 WAR for last year whereas Baseball-Ref has him at 7.1 WAR. Similarly, ESPN has Simmons at 6.7 WAR while he's at 6.8 WAR on Basebal-Ref. A quick cross comparison shows most players with identical numbers though.

 
Yes, ESPN's WAR will be exactly the same as Baseball Reference's WAR (not sure the rounding, but ESPN probably gets WAR to like 3 decimals through B-R's API).

 

[Frank Fenway]

It's kind of silly how often people post that they are "shocked" that someone is left on the board. 

 

[MakMan44]

I'm shocked Nick Punto is still on the board

 

[Frank Fenway]

I'm shocked Carlos Rodon is still on the board

 

[Why Not Grebeck?]

I'm shocked Tom Brady is still on the board

 

[SumnerH]

I'm sorry, the judges were looking for: I'm shocked Mariano Rivera is still on the board.
 
People shocked by Casey Blake and Doug Mirabelli received partial credit.  And a surprise.

 

[terrisus]

I'm shocked Pedro Martinez is still on the board.
 
If you guys let him drop to the end, I'm just going to draft him again.