SOSH Real Fantasy Draft 2014: Draft Order, Rules, and Draft Thread
- Thread starter Scoops Bolling
- Start date
I feel like I just shouldn't think of anyone at all until my pick, because anyone I decide on ends up being taken before my pick.
Picks are up to date, but I haven't updated the recent team names--I'll get those in later this afternoon.
I'm going with a guy who is one of the top players at his position. He's also due to regress next season and is an injury risk. Regardless of that, he's got pop and obp at a position that has very little of both.
I've never been good at first round picks.
Hanley Ramirez, SS.
I've never been good at first round picks.
Hanley Ramirez, SS.
I like this exercise. Congrats to whoever has my spot, make good picks.
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Taking a pitcher in the top half of the first round would terrify me. Pitcher value is generally A) slightly less than elite hitter value and B) much more variable on a year-to-year basis.
I know people don't like the CarGo pick (I don't either), but the Jose Fernandez pick strikes me as a reach for a young pitcher who lived on BABIP suppression last year. I like him, but I don't think I would have taken him over A) four or five other pitchers (one of which was taken after him) or B) about 10-15 hitters.
Puig is a ballsy pick at 11. Not saying it's a bad gamble, just the range of outcomes is very wide.
Color me shocked that Bryce Harper fell so far. I would probably have had him right behind Trout although Cutch isn't too far behind. I'd have let Cabrera slide top the bottom of the top 10, but also a defensible pick I suppose.
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Taking a pitcher in the top half of the first round would terrify me. Pitcher value is generally A) slightly less than elite hitter value and B) much more variable on a year-to-year basis.
I know people don't like the CarGo pick (I don't either), but the Jose Fernandez pick strikes me as a reach for a young pitcher who lived on BABIP suppression last year. I like him, but I don't think I would have taken him over A) four or five other pitchers (one of which was taken after him) or B) about 10-15 hitters.
Puig is a ballsy pick at 11. Not saying it's a bad gamble, just the range of outcomes is very wide.
Color me shocked that Bryce Harper fell so far. I would probably have had him right behind Trout although Cutch isn't too far behind. I'd have let Cabrera slide top the bottom of the top 10, but also a defensible pick I suppose.
Fishercat said:
Indeed. I had planned to pick Yu last year with that pick, and when he was picked one spot before me, it really threw me off. I ended up setting on Hanley, but regretted it immediately after. Not that he was a horrible pick, but if I had taken more time to think about it, I definitely would have gone in a different path with that pick. Still, had really wanted Yu with that pick (and I wanted Yu with my first pick this year). I guess I should just stop thinking about Darvish entirely.
I'm not totally sure what you mean by this--yes, he had an exceptionally low BABIP, and some regression there is to be expected, but his strikeout, walk and HR numbers (the home park helped, but his away HR/9 is nice too) were all good-to-terrific.czar said:
soxfan121 said:
MakMan44 said:
I was just reading Jayson Stark's new Strange But True column and the NL leader in Road OPS last year was: Carlos Gonzalez (930 Home, 987 Away). Of course, his road numbers were fueled by a .407 BABIP, but pay no attention to that. And his home BABIP was .331, so go figure.
I'll also add my name to the wait list in case someone drops out. I liked doing it last year, but it was a big time hog for me (and that's my fault for getting over-involved in it).
edit: added linky goodness
That wasn't meant to make it sound like he's an average pitcher who got lucky with BABIP.The Best Catch in 100 Years said:
It was meant to say that he had the 2nd best ERA in the bigs last year (3rd if you count Clay), but the 12th best SIERA. He was still a 1A pitcher, just probably closer to the 15th best pitcher than the 1st.
His peripherals weren't too far from some other young pitchers who also debuted last year but they probably won't go in Round 1 (or maybe even Round 2). If we assume people look past ERA/league effects, I would propose that the reason for this was the fact that Fernandez threw ~50-100 more innings than them, since they were equivalently ranked before last season. Which either implies that A) Fernandez was overdrafted or B) there is an extreme arbitrage for people to capitalize on.
Yep. And the trade off his how much you value his age. Most guys his age - even top prospects - are in AA.
Frank said:
Right? I felt like I had a definite direction last year. For some reason it seems a little more wide open this year.
- I don't like the Hanley pick. Awesome bat when he's healthy, of course, but he just turned 30. How long will he stick at SS and how healthy will he stay?
- I wouldn't have had the balls to go with Fernandez 12th overall, either. High upside, for sure, but I'd rather take a sure thing bat there. His youth may give him higher upside, but also a higher chance that he blows out his arm.
- I think Harper was a steal at 5th.
- I agree wholeheartedly with something Fishercat said in an earlier post.
So I see a lot of people don't like my pick.
I went into the draft knowing I'd pick Fernandez with my pick. I had a good suspicion he wouldn't go in the top 30.. when I saw I was pick 12, I knew he was going to be on the table. I knew this because I know he wasn't the smartest or best pick in my spot. It didn't matter to me.
My Fernandez pick was far more about heart-shaped eyes than it was about baseball prowess.
Not the best way to do business but, as I stated before all this started, I'm terrible at these things. This is why
EDIT:
I feel I should explain "smartest or best pick" a bit. I'm not trying to say I made a pick I knew was bad. In fact, I believe it's a good pick, but by most people's standards I knew it wasn't going to be the smartest pick. That didn't matter to me because, as I've said below, with Kershaw and Harper off the table this is the dude I build a team around.
I went into the draft knowing I'd pick Fernandez with my pick. I had a good suspicion he wouldn't go in the top 30.. when I saw I was pick 12, I knew he was going to be on the table. I knew this because I know he wasn't the smartest or best pick in my spot. It didn't matter to me.
My Fernandez pick was far more about heart-shaped eyes than it was about baseball prowess.
Not the best way to do business but, as I stated before all this started, I'm terrible at these things. This is why
EDIT:
I feel I should explain "smartest or best pick" a bit. I'm not trying to say I made a pick I knew was bad. In fact, I believe it's a good pick, but by most people's standards I knew it wasn't going to be the smartest pick. That didn't matter to me because, as I've said below, with Kershaw and Harper off the table this is the dude I build a team around.
Jaylach said:
Too bad we can't trade draft picks. Could have traded down and still gotten your guy in that case.
The Best Catch in 100 Years said:
No. And it wasn't completely whimsical. I really do believe he's going to be a stud for years to come, including next year. I'm not as afraid of his BABIP as some are, even though it is slightly concerning. With Kershaw and Harper off the table, he's the guy I'd build my team around.
I knew he'd be available because the dude only has 177 MLB innings under his belt. That doesn't usually warrant a top-20 pick in a draft like this.
Looks like Bosox4416 hasn't been on since the 22nd. Anyone have an opinion on how long we should give him to make a pick before making a move to replace or fill in for him?
The same treatment as last time, we move on at 11:35 AM today and he gets skipped on the turn if he doesn't make a pick before then. I would suggest actually replacing him on the turn if he's not here though, a team losing its first two picks is very likely to suck.
Maybe he or the new owner can just make the first-round pick at any time after he's been skipped, if it gets to that point?MakMan44 said:
Maybe we should select a player for the ghost team? A missed first round pick has a butterfly effect on the entire exercise.
If anything, I would think having the first taxi member make the pick would probably be the best thing - since, they would be the one taking over the team if necessary.
I'm with terrisus. We should pause the draft and have the first taxi squad manager make the first round pick. If the original manager doesn't show up by his 2nd round pick, then we go ahead and give his team to the taxi squad manager.
We've just started this draft and skipping managers and picks is going to change everyone's draft substantially. Let's get this right at the beginning.
We've just started this draft and skipping managers and picks is going to change everyone's draft substantially. Let's get this right at the beginning.
I'm with terrisus. We should pause the draft and have the first taxi squad manager make the first round pick. If the original manager doesn't show up by his 2nd round pick, then we go ahead and give his team to the taxi squad manager.
We've just started this draft and skipping managers and picks is going to change everyone's draft substantially. Let's get this right at the beginning.
Came here to say the same thing.
We've just started this draft and skipping managers and picks is going to change everyone's draft substantially. Let's get this right at the beginning.
Came here to say the same thing.
Keninten has been PMed to make a pick. If Bosox4416 does not post in this thread by the time his second pick comes up, Keninten will officially take over.
ForceAtHome, should I add you to the taxi list?
ForceAtHome, should I add you to the taxi list?
So, after knucklecup makes his pick, should I wait for Keninten to make his pick, or just go ahead with mine?
Scoops Bolling said:
I do not intend to participate in managing a team. I was just offering to help make an unbiased selection so that a team doesn't lose their first round pick, something that will likely be an insurmountable hill to climb.
If I wait how would I make up for the pick I would be missing in this round?
I may make a few picks like jaylach did with Fernandez. The player I`d take now wouldn`t make it back to me for my next pick but I`d definitely take him now. I checked out who I wanted before SoxFan58 made it back.
If anyone can give me some websites to help me with checking out players I`d appreciate it. I used Fangraphs and B-Ref but when it gets to later rounds is where I might get in trouble. You guys were picking some guys I had never heard of.
I`ll be watching(lurking) to see what happens.
I may make a few picks like jaylach did with Fernandez. The player I`d take now wouldn`t make it back to me for my next pick but I`d definitely take him now. I checked out who I wanted before SoxFan58 made it back.
If anyone can give me some websites to help me with checking out players I`d appreciate it. I used Fangraphs and B-Ref but when it gets to later rounds is where I might get in trouble. You guys were picking some guys I had never heard of.
I`ll be watching(lurking) to see what happens.
I think the consensus is that you should make the pick for Bosox4416's team now, so that team doesn't miss out entirely on a 1st-round pick. And since, if he does end up not making his next pick, the team would go to you anyway.
EDIT: What MakMan said.
EDIT: What MakMan said.
Right, pick now.
If Bosox4416 show up before his next pick, he keeps the team. If not, you take it over. Either way it has your pick as its first-round player.
If Bosox4416 show up before his next pick, he keeps the team. If not, you take it over. Either way it has your pick as its first-round player.
ForceAtHome said:
Well, knucklecup was PMed at noon today and told he could pick, so, must be a pretty big pile of drool by now.
And then after that it's me. So I just sit waiting, knowing whoever I think about will end up getting drafted by one of the two slots before me.
But, ah, I'm going to sleep soon anyway. And while I could PM in a contingency pick, we've had to wait nearly 36 hours already, so I'll see what's up once I wake up in the morning. Probably still won't be to me anyway.
When the Fernandez comp was thrown out there, it was obvious that Machado was the pick. Are you not going to consider playing him at SS?