SOSH Real Fantasy Draft 2014: Draft Order, Rules, and Draft Thread

[The Best Catch in 100 Years]

2) I decided to use the BA Top 3 for AA and AFL player eligibility to make a very select few players available who I knew would fit that criteria, and who I believed would be both A) Highly desired in this draft, and B) Stood a solid chance of playing in the MLB next year. That is why the rule was written in that manner.
 
3) Now is not the time to be debating eligibility rules. I solicited opinions for that repeatedly in the original thread; you were given a myriad of opportunities to express your opinion, and to debate with those you disagreed with at that time. We are now in the draft proper, and the rules are final.

Just going to preface all this by saying that I really appreciate your putting in the time to set this up--it's been a lot of fun participating the last couple years, and it's great that somebody's willing to step in and take control. I know from my scant experience of being a fantasy league commissioner how annoying it is to have 11 owners nitpicking every decision you make, and I can't imagine what it would be like dealing with 29 of them.
 
That said, here's a little nitpicking: I don't see the BA top 3 thing in the rules thread. When someone suggested that we restrict the available minor leaguers to BA top 10's, I, along with at least one other poster, voiced my objection to it. I don't see much support for that idea beyond the one guy who suggested it in that thread, and there was no indication in the thread that even the BA top 10 thing would be part of the rules, much less slimming down to BA top 3. I'm not sure it will end up mattering too much, but it's a silly, unnecessary and as-of-yet-unenforceable (only 20 2014 BA top 10's are available online) rule that will probably end up preventing a few players who will be very productive in 2014 and beyond from being selected, and I would have said as much if there had been any indication that this rule was going to be put in place before the draft started. Also, we're weeks away from anyone even considering drafting an AA/AFL player outside a BA top 3, so it doesn't seem like changing the rules on this point would be a big deal at all. 

 

[MakMan44]

TBF, (and I think it was my original suggestion) I was talking about restricting ALL prospects, including AAA, to just the top ten MLs in each system. 

 

[Scoops Bolling]

As I saw it, the majority opinion in the first thread was in favor of restricting the prospect pool. This makes sense (as has been argued by multiple posters in the past, both this year and last year) because the idea here is to see people create MLB teams, not "all the good players are gone, so I'm gonna start winging it with prospects" teams. When it came time to write the rules, I was originally going to say that only players with AAA experience could be drafted, as those are the likeliest prospects to hit the MLB in 2014. After doing a little research and checking rosters, I ultimately decided to add the Top 3 in AA/AFL rule to add a specific set of prospects to the pool that I knew would fit the rule and that I believed stood a good chance of playing in the MLB at some point in 2014; a few other guys would also become eligible, but I figured that was still better than me arbitrarily selecting a set of prospects below AAA that I felt were worthy of eligibility. That said, the rule was still drafted with the intent to continue to force people to draft players who will actually play in the MLB. The more expansive the rules, the more likely that players with little to no chance of actually playing in the MLB in 2014 will be selected...and that is not the point of this exercise.

 

[Toe Nash]

It doesn't make your nitpicking any less annoying if you preface it by saying how annoying nitpicking is.

 

[Fishercat]

I don't think there's any perfect solution to the prospect issue. What Scoops came up with will cover many of the major issues, and while the BA Top 10 (period) system would probably catch more guys who will be valuable next year, it would also allow for a lot of unrealistic 2014 picks (unlike Scoops system). Just using Boston's 2013 rankings, 6/10 didn't see the majors, and I'd argue that 8/10 or 9/10 wouldn't have been valuable on a 2013 Real Fantasy team. I think any of Tampa's Top 10 guys who put up real value in 2013 were eligible and drafted anyway.
 
I did put my thoughts in the topic (where I would have gone universal and limited the amount of non-MLB Players a team could take) but Scoops' idea seems pretty good to me. You will probably lose a moderate number of 2014 productive MLBers with it, but it's less restrictive than last time and will hopefully prevent TOO much of the the "I'm gonna take this guy who's three years away and he will be awesome" in the late rounds.

 

[Rich Garces Belly]

Its been over 24 hours since Galway shocked the world, does that mean that Curll is skipped and Toe Nash is up?

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

Its been over 24 hours since Galway shocked the word, does that mean that Curll is skipped and Toe Nash is up?

 
Not that I have a say as I'm not participating this time around but I'd make sure the next guy was PM'd before skipping this early, especially since the previous pick was made by a lurker GM with 6 total posts, one of which was used to unironically select Carlos Gonzalez with the 7th overall pick.

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

Clock started this morning at 9, and I checked curll was pm'd.

 

[soxfan121]

To defend (sort of) Galway's selection of Gonzalez - there's no more scarce resource than power. It commands a premium in the real market and it's going to command a premium in this fake one. Gonzalez, for all his other faults, is a legit middle of the order bat. Sure, his value is reduced because he plays in Coors but it's not like he's Vinny Castilla or something. He would have value playing in Petco or Oakland. 
 
So, while it was probably a little too high to take him seventh overall, I can see why Galway went there at that time and as long as the pick ends up fitting his overall team building strategy, I think y'all are being a little too harsh. 
 
Oh, and since this thing wasn't even supposed to START until this morning, I think y'all might be a little hasty on the time limit thingy. Chill out - this is gonna take all winter and most of the spring.
 
Signed, 
Guy-Not-Actually-Playing

 

[SumnerH]

Yeah my understanding is that the clock started at 9 AM Eastern, so Curll has another 19 hours to go.

 

[MakMan44]

To defend (sort of) Galway's selection of Gonzalez - there's no more scarce resource than power. It commands a premium in the real market and it's going to command a premium in this fake one. Gonzalez, for all his other faults, is a legit middle of the order bat. Sure, his value is reduced because he plays in Coors but it's not like he's Vinny Castilla or something. He would have value playing in Petco or Oakland. 
 
So, while it was probably a little too high to take him seventh overall, I can see why Galway went there at that time and as long as the pick ends up fitting his overall team building strategy, I think y'all are being a little too harsh. 

Then he whiffed, hard. 
 
There's a guy left on the table that has a higher ISO away from home than CarGo (and his home ISO is nearly the same as CarGo's ISO at Coors). Sure, he was injured last season but it's not like Gonzalez is the picture of health. Any way you slice it, it was a bad pick. 
 
EDIT: Of course, Curll just picked him.

 

[Curll]

Giancarlo (Mike) Stanton
 

 

[Fishercat]

I'll put in a defense for the Carlos Gonzalez pick too, even if I think he went too high at #7 (probably should be a mid-teens/early twenties pick)
 
Carlos Gonzalez has been an MLB regular since 2010. Over those four years, according to Fangraphs WAR, he has been the 21st ranked hitter in baseball. He'll be 29 going into this year, so I think it's fair to expect some sustained performance over the length of the project. Among those 20 ahead of him from 2010-2013, I think it's fair to take out the four who have been already taken in this draft and probably 7-9 more guys who are too old to realistically take in that spot or who have fallen off a cliff. There are definitely injury and stadium concerns (although, he was abnormally better away from Coors than at Coors last year thanks to BABIP) and that's not the direction I would have gone, but once you get past the Top 3, you're not going to get the ultra-flawless paragons of health and excellency. Miguel Cabrera is consistently awesome and until this year has been one of those paragons of health, but he's the cornerstone of a team and he's a poor fielder (unless put at 1B) and a poor baserunner (and 4th was a great spot for him). Buster Posey was around the right spot too, but Cargo is the better offensive player and, due to the plate collision, Gonzalez has still played more than him over the past four years.
 
The Stanton argument is interesting. The youth and power of Stanton are extremely well known and he went third in last year's draft, but you're going to bet on potential there and you're getting a less well-rounded player who you hopes wins you a ton of a games with his power. Cargo is a better fielder, better runner (substantially), better contact hitter, and has been just as healthy as Stanton on the whole.
 
As I said, I think Carlos Gonzalez should go later, he has warts I think that justify pushing him lower, but his offensive capabilities are good enough that, if he stays healthy, he can justify that draft position.

 

[MakMan44]

Stanton actually was a plus defender in 2011-2012 (going by UZR). I'd discount 2013 because I imagine his knee problems contributed to his poor fielding. Even taking into account how shaky UZR is, I don't really think the gap on defense is all that large. 

 

[Toe Nash]

With the 9th pick in the draft, the Green Mountain Boys select Robinson Cano, 2B.
 

 
With a first round pick, you really want a cornerstone of your team, someone you can count on at a tough-to-fill position. Hitters being more predictable than pitchers I was looking for an up-the-middle bat. Got it.
 
From 2012-13, Cano was 4th in fWAR behind Trout, Cutch, and MCab.
From 2011-13, Cano was 4th behind the same 3 (Tied with Verlander)
From 2010-13, Cano is 2nd behind MCab.
If you prefer bWAR, I don't have a play index sub, but Cano was 5th in bWAR in 2013, 2nd in 2012 and 2nd in 2010.
 
The guy is 11th in wOBA from 10-13 and plays a scarce up-the-middle position. He has excellent contact skills and hits the ball hard, making him a fit anywhere from 2-4 in the lineup. He is incredibly durable, averaging over 154 starts a year in the last 7 years and getting into most other games as a pinch hitter. So my team will have a middle-of-the-order quality bat penciled in all but a few games no matter what I do in the rest of the draft.
 
He looks lackadaisical on defense at times but seems to always get the job done, and the metrics like him -- I think it's fair to say he's above-average defensively.
 
He's 31, but it's reasonable to think he has at least 3 years left at second base, and could reasonably transition to a corner afterwards -- his bat would easily carry the position. 
 
He has no off-the-field issues I can recall. He seemed cocky as a youngster but has backed it up, so who can argue. He seems to enjoy playing the game and is friends with David Ortiz so I think his intangibles are positive.

 

[Fishercat]

It's probably worth noting when taking defensive stats into account that Gonzalez played all three spots in 2010-11, while both stuck in a corner for 2012-2013. Gonzalez is closer to the age where fielding starts to traditionally get hindered, so I don't think it's a major advantage, but Stanton's knee problems (hammy last year but knees historically) don't typically grade well for improving defensive value either.
 
Unrelated, but it's interesting that although 7 of the Top 8 from the previous draft are taken through the first nine picks, only Mike Trout has been selected within one pick of his place in the last draft.

 

[dylanmarsh]

Man, this is easier than I thought it would be:
 

 
Troy Tulowitzki, SS
 

• 29 years-old
• Consistent 5+ fWAR
• Middle-of-the-order bat with great OBP and power
• Gold Glove defense (reputation and statistically) at a tough position
• A great sell from a PR standpoint 

 

[Rich Garces Belly]

Is there a position requirement, or could someone draft a Jimmy Rollins and have them play 2nd base (again)?

 

[Rich Garces Belly]

Dylan does it concern you that you are using a 1st round pick on someone who hasn't played 150 games since 2009?  Do the injuries concern you at all?  

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

Been in bed all day... stupid stomach...

I'll write more of a review later. This might be a reach but what the hell:

Yasiel Puig, RF

 

[dylanmarsh]

Dylan does it concern you that you are using a 1st round pick on someone who hasn't played 150 games since 2009?  Do the injuries concern you at all?  

 
Not in the least.  There are plenty of players who have missed almost an entire season due to injury and missed parts of other seasons.  Tulo went on the DL last season due to a broken rib suffered while diving for a pop-up.  The previous season was lost to remove scar tissue (more like a hernia but it wasn't classified as such).  It he had ACL issue, torn labrum, TJ, or other detrimental baseball injuries I would be worried. 
 
Why aren't you asking the same of the guys who draft Stanton, CarGo, Harper and Posey?

 

[SumnerH]

Giancarlo (Mike) Stanton

Reminder to everyone: Please post exact positions with your picks (by which I mean RF/LF/CF rather than just OF, SP or BP rather than P, etc). They can be changed at any point no problem if the later picks so dictate.

Stanton's obviously in RF, but as it goes on it's a time saver for me not to be looking players up and making guesses.

 

[Galway Sox Fan]

Seems my pick of Cargo has sparked some debate. I was away for a while have not been able to post to defend it.
Most of the pros and cons I went through have been posted.
Fishercat states my thought process almost entirely. For this roster timeframe he offered me more certainty than Stanton though I must admit as I a new to this I was not thinking neutral stadiums etc. so I take that. Point on board.
It was a flip of a coin between him and a pitcher in the end.

 

[Jaylach]

José Fernandez, SP
 
I am not going to lie, mostly a love-interest first pick. I have such a man crush on this kid I sometimes wonder if I'm secretly attracted to men.
 
On the baseball side, he was extremely impressive in his first year: 172.2 IP, 176 ERA+, 0.979 WHIP, and averaged 9.7 K/9. Oh yeah, he won ROY and came third in Cy Young voting. He's also only 21 (Turning 22 in July next year) and is THE kid I'd build "my" organization around.
 

 
Also, them eyes.

 

[MakMan44]

Think that takes you out of the Brian McCann running Jay.

 

[ForceAtHome]

Then he whiffed, hard. 
 
There's a guy left on the table that has a higher ISO away from home than CarGo (and his home ISO is nearly the same as CarGo's ISO at Coors). Sure, he was injured last season but it's not like Gonzalez is the picture of health. Any way you slice it, it was a bad pick.

 
I'm not saying I would have picked Carlos Gonzalez, but here's the entire list of batters who put up more fWAR over the past four seasons and are younger than CarGo: Mike Trout, Andrew McCutchen, and Buster Posey.

 

[Rich Garces Belly]

Im a little surprised that this guy made it to me, I wanted him in the 4th round last year but he was snatched away so I had to settle for Matt Harvey (not bad consolation).
 
With no further delay, RGB selects with the lucky 13th pick:
 

 
Paul Goldschmidt 1B
I know that it is not a premium position, but Paul is entering his age 26 season and has become a middle of the order force.  In 2013 Goldschmidt had an OPS of .952, a wOBA of .404, with 36 home runs, and 15 stolen bases.  Fangraphs had his WAR at 6.4 for last season.  Having done this last year I was looking for a solid middle of the order bat with my first pick and someone who is just entering their prime and I feel like I took the best young bat available.  

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

It was between Puig and Goldschmidt for me. Nice pick.

 

[Rich Garces Belly]

It was between Puig and Goldschmidt for me. Nice pick.

 
Thanks, I was hoping one of those 2 would fall to me, so nice pick to you too.

 

[Kramerica Industries]

 
José Fernandez, SP
 
I am not going to lie, mostly a love-interest first pick. I have such a man crush on this kid I sometimes wonder if I'm secretly attracted to men.
 

 
So Im not the only one?
 
I was taking him at 26 

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

I was also planning on taking Fernandez in the first round if I hadn't lucked into a Kershaw pick. Lots of big shiny numbers with him but the shiniest is his age

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

Sort of wish I felt more confident about this, but...
 

 
Felix Hernandez, SP
 
He's still under 30, and his performance has been fairly steady.  

 

[terrisus]

Sort of wish I felt more confident about this, but...
 
Felix Hernandez, SP
 
He's still under 30, and his performance has been fairly steady.  

 
Well darn, there goes my guy again.

 

[Just a bit outside]

Seems my pick of Cargo has sparked some debate. I was away for a while have not been able to post to defend it.
Most of the pros and cons I went through have been posted.
Fishercat states my thought process almost entirely. For this roster timeframe he offered me more certainty than Stanton though I must admit as I a new to this I was not thinking neutral stadiums etc. so I take that. Point on board.
It was a flip of a coin between him and a pitcher in the end.

I have been pretty harsh on this pick but Cargo is currently slated to play cf for the Rockies this year.  I am not sure what his defensive numbers will look like, as they have been inconsistent in the past, but it has the potential to give him more value.

 

[dylanmarsh]

Sort of wish I felt more confident about this, but...
 

 
Felix Hernandez, SP
 
He's still under 30, and his performance has been fairly steady.

Great pitcher but his velocity drop concerns me. It will be interesting to see how long he stays elite.

 

[Curll]

Great pitcher but his velocity drop concerns me. It will be interesting to see how long he stays elite.

Ugly girlfriend, lacks confidence, I'd DFA him.

 

[Toe Nash]

I'm pretty surprised that so many pitchers, especially young pitchers, are going. They are all defensible but the variance among pitchers from year-to-year is so much even if they don't get injured, especially for guys who have just a year or two. And then obviously they are at much higher risk of a career-altering injury than a comparable position player. And while they could make the difference in a short series position players generally produce more value overall if you trust WAR (short of a Pedro talent, or a Verlander 2009).
 
Also seems like a big skew towards very young players. Sure it's nice to think about having Harper for 10 years, but if it's real life, you're really only looking at the next five or less unless your team has the bucks to sign the guy to a megacontract and he wants to stay. I wonder if we are subconsciously influenced by MLB strategies, when the pre-FA first six years of a star's career are so valuable that they trump lots of other stuff. Certainly some of these players are projectable but I wonder how much better Harper or Giancarlo are going to get.
 
Really not calling anyone out here, but genuinely curious on the thought process and trying to get some discussion going.

 

[terrisus]

Yeah, I remember we discussed that a number of times last thread, where in real Baseball a significant factor in a player's worth is based around how many years he's under control/how inexpensive he is, whereas in an activity like this we don't have to worry about that. So, while in real Baseball a good young player who hasn't even hit arbitration yet is significantly more valuable than a player who is around the same age, who may be slightly better, but due to having hit the majors earlier, is now on a 7 year contract at $18 million per or something, whereas in our activity that wouldn't really be an issue.

 

[NJ_Sox_Fan]

I hate picking middle of the pack ... I flip flopped on this pick literally a dozen times. SP, positional player, young and upcoming star, established veteran. 

Anyhow, with the #15 pick I will take Joey Votto - 1B 
 

 
On base machine, power, hits for average, and all around offensive force.  

 

[terrisus]

And speaking of a team being glad they don't have to deal with a player's actual contract - here's Joey Votto!

 

[MakMan44]

Shit. I wanted Votto so goddamn bad. Go back and unpick him NSF.

 

[Fishercat]

I have a feeling someone who remembers last year's draft is going to be very, very happy with one particular player who is still on the board.
 
I understand the skew towards younger players, mostly because MLB players just don't age as well as you'd expect, and this is the one time to really grab young star caliber players. By the time Bryce Harper's owner gets another pick, if last year holds, you're probably choosing between a very good old player, a good mid-career guy, or a younger player with real upside but more questions to if he'll ever be as good as the previous two types. Younger guys also give you more flexibility in how you want to build a team. If you take Bryce Harper 5th, you can still go for a "win now" team, you can go for a prospect-laden future super team. If you take Joey Votto (who I did last year), you are probably aiming for a more current window in order to not waste Joey Votto.
 
Note:
 
Neither Puig nor Fernandez were eligible in last year's draft, while Paul Goldschmidt was the first eligible player who was a first round pick this year who wasn't one in 2013 (he was picked on the Round 3/4 wheel). The other twelve players taken were all first rounders from a year ago.

 

[The Best Catch in 100 Years]

I'm pretty surprised that so many pitchers, especially young pitchers, are going. They are all defensible but the variance among pitchers from year-to-year is so much even if they don't get injured, especially for guys who have just a year or two. And then obviously they are at much higher risk of a career-altering injury than a comparable position player. And while they could make the difference in a short series position players generally produce more value overall if you trust WAR (short of a Pedro talent, or a Verlander 2009).
 
Also seems like a big skew towards very young players. Sure it's nice to think about having Harper for 10 years, but if it's real life, you're really only looking at the next five or less unless your team has the bucks to sign the guy to a megacontract and he wants to stay. I wonder if we are subconsciously influenced by MLB strategies, when the pre-FA first six years of a star's career are so valuable that they trump lots of other stuff. Certainly some of these players are projectable but I wonder how much better Harper or Giancarlo are going to get.
 
Really not calling anyone out here, but genuinely curious on the thought process and trying to get some discussion going.

I mean, if you're going to start taking "real life" contracts into account you kinda have to go all the way. If you're going to say that Harper would only stay your property for "five years or less" in "real life" before signing him to a "megacontract" you should also take into account the fact that he'll be well below market value for those first five years, whereas a 31-year-old like Robinson Cano will command a huge contract and hamstring your team financially for the next ten years. For what it's worth I haven't really been considering real life contract stuff--just kinda assuming these guys will remain on my team for a long time.
 
I took Harper because pretty much everything I've seen from knowledgeable baseball people points toward him being a generational talent, with a significant chance at setting the league on fire as soon as next year, and at becoming a perennial MVP candidate within the next two or three seasons. The fact that he's already amazingly productive is obviously another factor--he's been a 4-5 win player over the last couple years, despite the fact that he (at least according to Keith Law) probably didn't get enough time in the minors to work on his approach at the plate. I didn't really consider anyone else, and, as I said, was shocked that he fell to me at pick #5.
 
In general, my team-building approach is to be competitive over many years, rather than go for a couple peak years. If the MLB champion were the team with the best record at the end of the year, I might do things differently, but so much flukey crap can happen in the playoffs that it seems like a better strategy to build around some young guys who will most likely be good for a long time but might not give you as much completely assured production over the short term as more established veteran star players will.

 

[Frank Fenway]

Been in bed all day... stupid stomach...

I'll write more of a review later. This might be a reach but what the hell:

Yasiel Puig, RF

 
good fucking pick 

 

[Frank Fenway]

I have a feeling someone who remembers last year's draft is going to be very, very happy with one particular player who is still on the board.
 
I understand the skew towards younger players, mostly because MLB players just don't age as well as you'd expect, and this is the one time to really grab young star caliber players. By the time Bryce Harper's owner gets another pick, if last year holds, you're probably choosing between a very good old player, a good mid-career guy, or a younger player with real upside but more questions to if he'll ever be as good as the previous two types. Younger guys also give you more flexibility in how you want to build a team. If you take Bryce Harper 5th, you can still go for a "win now" team, you can go for a prospect-laden future super team. If you take Joey Votto (who I did last year), you are probably aiming for a more current window in order to not waste Joey Votto.
 
Note:
 
Neither Puig nor Fernandez were eligible in last year's draft, while Paul Goldschmidt was the first eligible player who was a first round pick this year who wasn't one in 2013 (he was picked on the Round 3/4 wheel). The other twelve players taken were all first rounders from a year ago.

 
should I rub your head?

 

[Scoops Bolling]

Soxfan58 has not been on since Xmas, so Keninten has been PMed that the team will be turned over to him as of 9 AM should Soxfan58 not show up. Should that come to pass, Keninten will be given a full 24 hour clock to make his pick starting at 9 AM today. We had problems with Soxfan58 last time around, so no leeway is being given in this instance.

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

 
good fucking pick 

I hear the radar guns clock him at 110 mph.

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

What's humbling about this draft really is that if you set out trying to recreate the Miami Marlins, the Colorado Rockies or the Seattle Mariners it is now impossible to get those teams. Much less the Dodgers. For all the angst and research were going to do here it's going to be really hard for anyone to break out of a 75-85 win range.

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

 
good fucking pick 

 
Thanks. Now that I can keep food down I'll explain my thoughts on Puig.

 
The kid has more tools than a Snap-On truck and has been a menace at the plate and on his local highways. He's apparently only 23 (but who knows?) so he's likely to only get better... and with his power and speed, could be Trout level ridiculous. The only reason why I thought he might be a reach was because of the question marks with his attitude and behavior. His talent is undeniable so hopefully he's just making the transition from a Cuban lifestyle to an American-millionaire which would be tough for anybody. He's shown the ability to make adjustments cutting his first half o-swing % of 41.1 to 34.7 in the second half when pitchers started to throw to him differently. If he can keep his shit together off the field and focus on the field then this kid is going to be elite.
 
I went defense and pitching heavy last year so I'm trying a different approach this time.
 
 

What's humbling about this draft really is that if you set out trying to recreate the Miami Marlins, the Colorado Rockies or the Seattle Mariners it is now impossible to get those teams. Much less the Dodgers. For all the angst and research were going to do here it's going to be really hard for anyone to break out of a 75-85 win range.

 
I noticed that last year. I don't think anyone broke 87 or 88 wins.

 

[Toe Nash]

I mean, if you're going to start taking "real life" contracts into account you kinda have to go all the way. If you're going to say that Harper would only stay your property for "five years or less" in "real life" before signing him to a "megacontract" you should also take into account the fact that he'll be well below market value for those first five years, whereas a 31-year-old like Robinson Cano will command a huge contract and hamstring your team financially for the next ten years. For what it's worth I haven't really been considering real life contract stuff--just kinda assuming these guys will remain on my team for a long time.
 
I took Harper because pretty much everything I've seen from knowledgeable baseball people points toward him being a generational talent, with a significant chance at setting the league on fire as soon as next year, and at becoming a perennial MVP candidate within the next two or three seasons. The fact that he's already amazingly productive is obviously another factor--he's been a 4-5 win player over the last couple years, despite the fact that he (at least according to Keith Law) probably didn't get enough time in the minors to work on his approach at the plate. I didn't really consider anyone else, and, as I said, was shocked that he fell to me at pick #5.
 
In general, my team-building approach is to be competitive over many years, rather than go for a couple peak years. If the MLB champion were the team with the best record at the end of the year, I might do things differently, but so much flukey crap can happen in the playoffs that it seems like a better strategy to build around some young guys who will most likely be good for a long time but might not give you as much completely assured production over the short term as more established veteran star players will.

 
Harper was probably a bad example since he is a generational talent and it doesn't really matter if he's 21 or 31. I'd probably have taken him there too. More thinking of Giancarlo or Fernandez or Puig, though as I said they're all defensible.
 
My "next five years" comment works even in the fictional world with no contracts that we're inhabiting. The way I see it, you want to focus on the short-term for the following reasons:
a. it's easier to predict
b. even without contracts that's probably the realistic window that a GM can have without worrying about being fired. Unless we're all owners and front offices of our teams for life you want to show something to your owner (and fans) in the next 3 or so years and waiting around for guys to fully blossom may not be it.
 
I dunno, this is all food for thought and everyone builds their team their own way. I think a good way to think about this is that we're building teams in the reserve clause era (or in a world where Curt Flood never existed), so if we want guys forever we can have them. That was basically a world where contracts didn't matter (unless a guy held out or whatever, but he'd still be underpaid).