So, What's your Top 10?

BigMike

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1)  Oregon
2)  Bama
3)  FSU
4)  Baylor
5)  OSU
6) CLemson   (can't get the stink of yesterday out of my mouth yet, very unimpressive at home)
7) Missouri   (lost QB will hurt)
8) Louisville (Want to rank them higher, but struggled with Rutgers)
9) Miami
10  UCLA
 
Personally at this point of the year I need to rank major conference unbeatens ahead of teams who have lost.   So LSU, and TAMU,  sorry, but one loss
 

Dgilpin

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1. Oregon
2. Bama
3. Clemson
4. Miami
5. Florida St.
6. Ohio St.
7. UCLA
8. LSU
9. Baylor
10. Louisville
 

Dgilpin

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1. Oregon
2. Alabama
3. Florida St.
4. Missouri
5. Ohio St.
6. Baylor
7. Miami
8. Stanford
9. Texas Tech
10. Auburn
 

BigMike

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Well at least I was smart enough to have FSU solidly ahead of Clemson last week.  Part of me really wants to put FSU #1,  but I just don't bounce teams If they do beat Miami, Florida, and then either VT, Ga Tech or Miami in the ACC Title game I will probably promote them to top 2. 
 
1)  Oregon
2)  Bama
3)  FSU
4)  Baylor 
5)  OSU
6) Missouri   
7) Miami (I think they will fall, but they deserve to be at least this high)
8) Texas Tech
9) Fresno St
10) Northern Illinois
 
Honestly I don't think NI or Fresno St  are top 10 teams, but at the same time.  I can't make the argument that any of the 1 loss teams really belong in the top 10.  
Clemson sucked ass against a mediocre BC team, and were blown out of the stadium by FSU. No way are they top 10
Stanford lost to a very mediocre Utah team
Louisville I have rated behind UCF, and no idea how the human polls have them ahead, UCF has a much better SOS so far
Auburn,  they have a great chance to get to the Bama game at 10-1, as the schedule is really soft (especially if Georgia is still badly injured when they play)
 

Infield Infidel

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BigMike said:
 
Louisville I have rated behind UCF, and no idea how the human polls have them ahead, UCF has a much better SOS so far
 
 
This really blows my mind btw. I HATE how pollsters refuse to move teams very far from the previous week. "Louisville was overrated, so let's keep em overated, even ahead of a team that beat them!" I'm terrified that without computers next year the committee will make this error more prominent
 

BigMike

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Infield Infidel said:
 
This really blows my mind btw. I HATE how pollsters refuse to move teams very far from the previous week. "Louisville was overrated, so let's keep em overated, even ahead of a team that beat them!" I'm terrified that without computers next year the committee will make this error more prominent
 
Sometimes I get it.   Sometimes one team has a clearly better resume than the other, and loses a close game.  I can see maybe not jumping the team with the better resume. 
 
But UCF had a better resume entering the game.   The win against PSU was the best win either of the 2 teams has.  And UCF's loss was a 3 point game in Columbia against USC.   Lousville had nothing of value on their resume, and UCF beat them.   I'd put UCF about 5 spots ahead of Louisville at this point
 
And the "coaches" poll is the worst of them all.  9 spots behind Louisville
 

Infield Infidel

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great summation here http://msn.foxsports.com/collegefootball/story/bcs-standings-first-release-alabama-florida-state-oregon-ohio-state-1-2-3-4-human-polls-flawed-ducks-control-destiny-102013
 
 

At the end of the day, the BCS is still a beauty contest with judges deciding the top teams. The problem is that two-thirds of the equation comes from the humans, and the polls have fatal flaws, especially this week.
For example, UCF, whose only loss came to South Carolina, just handed Louisville its first loss at Louisville. At the moment, based on what happened on the field so far, there’s no rational explanation for not ranking UCF ahead of Louisville. However, UCF is ranked 25th in both the Harris and coaches’ polls while Louisville is an inexplicable 16th.
Worse yet, Auburn has just one loss on the year — at then-No. 6 LSU — on the way to its 6-1 record. Texas A&M is 5-2 with a loss to Alabama along with Saturday’s loss to Auburn. That means the Tigers have a better record and a head-to-head win over the Aggies, but Texas A&M is 13th and Auburn is 15th in the Harris Poll, and A&M is 15th in the coaches’ poll while Auburn is 17th.
Fortunately, the computers helped the cause to help make Auburn No. 11 in the BCS standings, five spots ahead of Texas A&M. But Louisville is 20th in the BCS (despite being 28th by the computers) and UCF is 23rd even though it’s 19th among the computers. Blame the humans.
The BCS standings are determined by these polls, so if there’s something off, it hurts the overall credibility, and it throws the whole thing out of whack.
 
The problem, as I see it, is that the pollsters move teams up and down, instead of just ranking the teams. That may sound confusing, but they are taking into account where they were previously, which further takes into account where they were in the pre-season. They do this instead of ranking teams by what happened on the field and who looked better. 
 

PaulinMyrBch

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MYRTLE BEACH!!!!
  1. Bama
  2. FSU
  3. Oregon
  4. Missouri
  5. Baylor
  6. Ohio State
  7. Clemson
  8. Miami
  9. Texas Tech
  10. Stanford
I tend to look at things as who do I think would win, neutral site, head to head.  For that reason, Clemson stays ranked mainly due to the fact as quality wins go, beating healthy Georgia was impressive.  Unfortunately computer polls do not distinguish the difference between healthy Georgia and Georgia missing the top 2 RB's and top 3 WR's. So that win is diminished by some, but it might be the best quality win of anyone in the top 10.  
 
I can't rank TTech any higher after nearly losing to WVU on Saturday.  
 

BigMike

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PaulinMyrBch said:
 
I tend to look at things as who do I think would win, neutral site, head to head.  For that reason, Clemson stays ranked mainly due to the fact as quality wins go, beating healthy Georgia was impressive.  Unfortunately computer polls do not distinguish the difference between healthy Georgia and Georgia missing the top 2 RB's and top 3 WR's. So that win is diminished by some, but it might be the best quality win of anyone in the top 10.  
 
I can't rank TTech any higher after nearly losing to WVU on Saturday.  
 
 
So Clemson beating healthy UGA might be a better quality win than FSU beating the living shit out of a healthy Clemson team in Death Valley?  and you are downgrading TTech because they nearly lost to WVU  (at Morgantown).   Yet Clemson by your same standard nearly lost to an equally bad Boston College team at Home the previous week
 

PaulinMyrBch

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BigMike said:
 
So Clemson beating healthy UGA might be a better quality win than FSU beating the living shit out of a healthy Clemson team in Death Valley?  and you are downgrading TTech because they nearly lost to WVU  (at Morgantown).   Yet Clemson by your same standard nearly lost to an equally bad Boston College team at Home the previous week
I said "might"....but those are clearly the two of the notable wins of top 10 teams.
 
I have Clemson 7, ahead of some undefeated teams because I think they beat those teams below them head to head. Fueled not by the clusterfuck Saturday, but based on the quality of the win they had against Georgia.  I'm not going to bump them below teams I feel they would beat because they had a mediocre win versus BC.  They have one loss, its to the #2 team in the nation with two weeks to prepare.
 
I have FSU 2, based mainly by the game Saturday and Jameis Winston. Although it is worth pointing out BC gave FSU the most competitive game this year, leading by 2 scores in the second and losing the lead right at the half.  I think FSU is close to an SEC level line, but I think they'd have trouble in the trenches.
 
And you know I love Morgantown, but that place is a mess right now.  WVU up late in that game wasn't just a surprise to me, it was shockingly a surprise.  So Texas Tech sits where they are because they don't have a quality win and IMO would lose to the teams directly above them.  But we'll know soon enough as Okla, Okla St, Baylor, and Texas are left on that schedule.
 

Infield Infidel

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1 Bama
2 Oregon
3 Florida State
4 Ohio State
5 Stanford
6 Missouri
7 Baylor
8 Miami
9 Auburn
10 Clemson
 
Edit - I have no idea where to put Baylor. As impressive as Baylor has been, it's hard to take them seriously when Buffalo is the only team they've beaten with a winning record. Their toughest five games are their last five games. What a weird schedule. 
 

BigMike

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1)  Oregon
2)  Bama
3)  FSU
4)  Baylor 
5)  OSU
6) Miami (I think they will fall, but they deserve to be at least this high)
7) Fresno St
8) Northern Illinois
9) Auburn
10) Stanford
 

gmogmo

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Bama
Oregon
FSU
Baylor 
Ohio State
Stanford
Auburn
Clemson
A&M
Miami (who won't sniff the top 10 after this weekend)
 

Dgilpin

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1. Oregon
2. FSU
3. Alabama
4. Baylor
5. Ohio St.
6. Stanford
7. Auburn
8. Miami
9. Missouri
10. Oklahoma
 

Infield Infidel

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For those that have Baylor over Ohio State, what's the reasoning? OSU's win over Penn St yesterday is more impressive than anything Baylor has done, and OSU also beat Wisconsin, which is a top-25 team
 
FBS Opponents' records
Baylor 19-26
Ohio St 28-25
 
Sagarin ranks Baylor's sched 96th, OSU 69th
 

Dgilpin

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Infield Infidel said:
For those that have Baylor over Ohio State, what's the reasoning? OSU's win over Penn St yesterday is more impressive than anything Baylor has done, and OSU also beat Wisconsin, which is a top-25 team
 
FBS Opponents' records
Baylor 19-26
Ohio St 28-25
 
Sagarin ranks Baylor's sched 96th, OSU 69th
 
For me its just more about who I feel is better, Ohio st. has better wins right now however Baylor will have an opportunity to get their wins by the end of the season. I feel like if Baylor and Ohio st. both finish undefeated I would give Baylor the edge.  Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Ok. St and Texas are much better than Penn St. Michigan, Wisconsin and Northwestern.
 

Dgilpin

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Sorry I should have been more clear the schedule comment was in reference to how I think things would sort themselves out if both schools went undefeated . My ranking now is based on watching both schools and who I feel is better , although Ohio St has the better resume now their only real quality win is Wisconsin, while struggling with Iowa and Northwestern. On the other hand Baylor has destroyed everyone they faced .
 

Dgilpin

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1. Oregon
2. Florida St.
3. Bama
4. Baylor
5. Ohio St.
6. Stanford
7. Auburn
8. Missouri
9. Oklahoma
10. Clemson
 

PaulinMyrBch

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MYRTLE BEACH!!!!
  1. Bama
  2. FSU
  3. Oregon
  4. Ohio State
  5. Baylor
  6. Clemson
  7. Missouri
  8. Auburn
  9. Stanford
  10. Oklahoma
I've got four tiers in my opinion and teams are very close within those groups.
 
1/2/3, 4/5, 6/7/8, 9/10
 

axx

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FSU #2 again. Still, Team Nike will probably finish ahead of them if they both win out, but it could be close.
 

Infield Infidel

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1. Florida State
2. Alabama
3. Oregon
4. Ohio State
5. Missouri
6. Stanford
7. Baylor
8. Auburn
9. Oklahoma
10. Clemson
 
1/2/3 Have pummeled similar schedules (Sags has Bama 47, FSU 54, Ore 62). Bama sched hasn't had as many highlights as FSU. If they win out I'll put them back at #1
 
Missouri lost to a good team in OT on a doinked FG, they'll stay as my highest 1-loss team. Baylor hasn't played anyone. 
 

SMU_Sox

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1. Bama
2. FSU
3. Oregon
4. Stanford
5. Baylor
6. Missouri
7. LSU
8. Ohio State
9. BYU
10. Arizona state

Purely on Football Outsiders fei stats and my own opinion. Those are who I feel are the best teams in that order. Not a bcs wins are the only things that matter ranking.
 

BigMike

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OK SMU,   really BYU?      A team that lost to a decent Utah, and an absolutely AWFUL Virginia team
 

Infield Infidel

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Yeah, ASU is top 10 in F/+, but that isn't the be all end all, and even Bill Connelly at SBNation says it's a little weird
 
 
 

3. Arizona State and USC are almost certainly ranked too highly in the F/+ rankings...
...at sixth and 10th, respectively. I'm not going to convince you that those rankings are totally legit, at least not yet.
But let's just say the Sun Devils and Trojans probably aren't going to move down much in this week's updated rankings after their performances. Both teams looked pretty fantastic in disposing of Washington State and Oregon State, respectively, in weeknight road trips.
 
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2013/11/4/5064170/ohio-state-football-2013-braxton-miller
 

SMU_Sox

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I think there are 6 teams that have to be in the top 10: Bama, Oregon, Stanford, FSU, Baylor, Ohio State.
 
Then you have a bunch of other teams that as of right now are really close together: LSU, Missouri, Arizona State, Louisville, UCF, BYU, Michigan State, Wisconsin, South Carolina.
 
And you have teams who have a better record than they do advanced stats: Clemson, Auburn, Okla St., Okla U, Texas tech, Miami, ND, Fresno State.
 
I've watched every one of those teams who have a better record than they do advanced stats. I have to say that they all had stretches of domination in games but also bad stretches. And while that can be true of any team it is more of the case for the ones I mentioned. YMMV. If you disagree I can stomach that - no hard feelings here. But getting back to what I mean... Clemson is an example of this. Their game week 1 against Georgia was amazing. But they struggle against BC, FSU serial crushed them, and they struggle for a long time in a game against an injury depleted Maryland squad. The game was absolutely nowhere near as exciting as a 40-27 score would indicate and Clemson looked like dog shit for 2.5 quarters. In the three games I got to watch in entirety I am left with a team that I see has a lot of flaws despite a gaudy record. I'm a non-conformist with football power rankings too. Last year, for example, I never thought much of the Falcons. If I have a fault it is that I give too much weight to what the numbers tell me and not look at wins and losses. But I'm ok with that.
 

PaulinMyrBch

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You lost me.  Are you saying those teams in the third tier with "better records than advanced stats" are actually behind the group you've got listed as teams "really close together"?

If so, please explain the BYU v Clemson ranking and how you rationalize won/loss records and games against common opponents.
 

SMU_Sox

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Yes. As of right now I think thise teams are better. Honestly the two tiers aren't that far apart. Like I said I have no problem that you disagree. I live and die by the methodology. Common opponents can helo decide a tie breaker but aren't a be all end all for me.
 

SMU_Sox

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So Clemson and BYU seem to bother you the most. Let me say it is more about Clemson than BYU. Clemson strikes me as one of the most overrated teams. Not because they are bad but because they are incredibly inconsistent game ti game and quarter to quarter. The fei, f+ and s+ tell me what I see. BYU lost to a bad Virginia team that Clemson beat. But I don't care about one common opponent. I think BYU and Clemson are a coin flip if they play.
 

PaulinMyrBch

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Wins still mean something to me.  Inconsistency is one thing, and looking like dogshit in a game you end up winning by 2 touchdowns is an interesting way to mask it.  Here's what I deem inconsistent, losing to two teams that have a combined 11 losses partway through the season. 
 
I tend to judge teams on their ceiling, the quality of the best wins, realizing that 18-20 year old kids aren't going to show the consistency you want over a 3 month season. For that reason, folks can bang Clemson for the loss against FSU and some non-plussed wins versus some unranked teams.  When BYU is inconsistent they lose to bad teams. Teams that for the most part, show up and lose games.  I can't bump them up for that regardless of what advanced stats tell you.
 

BigMike

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SMU_Sox said:
So Clemson and BYU seem to bother you the most. Let me say it is more about Clemson than BYU. Clemson strikes me as one of the most overrated teams. Not because they are bad but because they are incredibly inconsistent game ti game and quarter to quarter. The fei, f+ and s+ tell me what I see. BYU lost to a bad Virginia team that Clemson beat. But I don't care about one common opponent. I think BYU and Clemson are a coin flip if they play.
 
Really a coin flip game.    I think Vegas Would have Clemson as somewhere between a 14 and 24 point favorite in the game depending on where it was being played
 
I think Clemson has had a bad year where they have underperformed their talent level, and yet are still a top 7 team.  Some of it is coaching, I think Dabo is awful,  but the talent level is insane
 

SMU_Sox

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I reserve the right to change my mind on BYU. I figure after a bad showing against Wisconsin they will slip. I still don't think Clemson cracks my top 10.
 
Their F+ rating rank: 23rd
Their FEI rating rank: 30th
Their S&P+ rating rank: 14th
 
That's revealing to me. You guys can and will disagree. And that's what is great about college ball.
 
BYU's
F+: 12th
FEI: 7th
S&P+: 12th
 
Wisconsin:
F+: 10th
FEI: 19th
S&P+: 7th
 

PaulinMyrBch

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BigMike said:
 
Really a coin flip game.    I think Vegas Would have Clemson as somewhere between a 14 and 24 point favorite in the game depending on where it was being played
 
I think Clemson has had a bad year where they have underperformed their talent level, and yet are still a top 7 team.  Some of it is coaching, I think Dabo is awful,  but the talent level is insane
 
I pulled him out of the awful category only because he had the sense to lobby for top $$ for coordinators and has managed to get Morris and Venables.  Whether they'll have enough to offset what Spurrier has done to them lately, we'll see in a few weeks.  Plus he's a top recruiter.  All in all things are in the right direction at Clemson, but the size disadvantage in the trenches when they play SEC schools is noticeable.  Skill talent is insane, bigs not so much.
 

Dgilpin

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1. Alabama
2. Florida St.
3. Baylor
4. Stanford
5. Ohio St.
6. Oregon
7. Auburn
8. Missouri
9. South Carolina
10. Michigan St.
 

SMU_Sox

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I can safely say that BYU is no longer in my top 10. Let the rejoicing commence ;)
 

Infield Infidel

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Bill Connelly has a story up about why Fresno and N. Illinois aren't nearly as good as previous BCS busters http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2013/11/11/5090392/college-football-bcs-busters-fresno-state-northern-illinois
 
 
 
With Utah and TCU getting called up to major conferences (along with, technically, the former Conference USA members that joined the still-AQ American Athletic Conference), BYU going independent, and Boise State entering an apparent down cycle of sorts, the mid-major ranks currently aren't what they once were. The downward creep began in 2012 and has continued rather dramatically in 2013. There were only two non-AQ teams in the F/+ top 30 in 2012, and heading into this past week of action, there were only two in the top 40 in 2013. Neither were Fresno State or Northern Illinois. In fact, neither the Bulldogs nor Huskies were in the non-AQ top six. When the new F/+ rankings are unveiled tomorrow, the odds are very good that Fresno State will have moved up a few spots following a shellacking of Wyoming, but it will only be a few spots; the Bulldogs aren't going to suddenly rank in the top 30.
 
 
Top 10 teams from BCS non-AQ conferences in 2013 (By F/+)
35. Utah State
38. East Carolina
41. Boise State
48. North Texas
50. Ball State
53. Marshall
56. Fresno State
58. Toledo
61. Rice
64. Northern Illinois
(lowest-ranked AQ conference leader: No. 13 UCF)
 

Dgilpin

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1. Alabama
2. FSU
3. Baylor
4. Ohio St.
5. Oregon
6. Auburn
7. Missouri
8. Michigan St.
9. Clemson
10. Wisconsin
 

SMU_Sox

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I wanted to come here and gloat about how I was right that Auburn was worse than their record and thst they would com3 back down to earth. Then UGA continued their Cub like cursed streak and let Auburn connect on a 73 yard hail Mary on 4th and 18 in triple coverage on a deflected ball. All the dbs needed to do was bat the ball down. But no. The curse strikes again for UGA fans. I'm friends with 4 or 5 of them on Facebook but none of them know each other and they are different ages. I think the age range is something like 22 to 50s. Seeing them all post about how this always happens to UGA (blowing a close lead in the last two minutes of a big game) was priceless.

Edit: The Cub curse line is lifted directly from 2 of those aforementioned fb feeds. Both gentlemen are from CHI and went to UGA undergrad.
 

SMU_Sox

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1. FSU
2. BAMA
3. BAYLOR
4. OREGON
5. STANFORD
6. ARIZONA STATE
7. OHIO STATE
8. WISCONSIN
9. AUBURN
10. MISSOURI
11. Duke Sox