So Covington is reportedly extending with PHI for 4 years/$62mn, which seems like a reasonable comparable in thinking about SMart's next contract...
In addition to being a good rebounder in his own right, he's excellent at getting bigger players on his back and just clearing out space for a teammate to grab the board. Rozier's a pretty incredible ball hawk on the glass for a guy his size- he just goes up and snatches it- whereas Marcus finds a big body to immobilize as soon as the shot goes up. I probably splooge about this too much in the game threads, but it's just not something you really see from guards, and like his screen-setting, it's not something that shows up readily in the box scores.Probably a lot of little things to go along with all that. For example he's a pretty good rebounder and outlet passer, so I'm sure the early season numbers are skewed by some transition baskets they're getting due to his play. He's also one of the few guards out there that can legitimately set wipeout picks on big men, leading to more open shots for Boston's 4s and 5s.
These are, overall, the reasons that he's valuable to Boston, but part and parcel of why I doubt he's going to get a big offer on the open market. Teams generally don't pay 80% max money to a roleplayer to do the dirty work.
I don't believe in basketball statistics the way some of you do and think they're generally abused on this forum in the sense that they're highly experimental but often cited as facts. Nonetheless, it's hard to argue with his putrid shooting pct and some weird on off numbers in a small sample aren't going to make me fall in love with this methodology.
But I think another part of Smarts value is mentality. He's a real hard bastard who works hard and makes an enormous amount of big plays in big spots. I can't imagine he's fun to deal with in practices either. Normally I'd dismiss this type of thought but I earnestly wonder whether we could replace his mentality if he were to leave. I think he might be good enough defensively to almost shame his teammates into similar max effort max effectiveness performances.
Maybe I'm totally wrong and he coasts in practices, I can't know. But if he is that kind of go hard every day hyper competitive person, he's probably an awesome role model for his suddenly very young teammates
Not really comparable because 76ers are giving Covington a raise this year with their cap space so he's getting guaranteed $ right now - an extra $15MM this year. Them RC's salary actually declines to help 76ers with cap management. Also, RC had been paid peanuts up to now so getting the raise this year had to mean a lot.So Covington is reportedly extending with PHI for 4 years/$62mn, which seems like a reasonable comparable in thinking about SMart's next contract...
Why is a non-competitor extending a guy who will be in his 30s by the time they're set to begin their run, rather than accumulating assets for 2020 and beyond? I suppose there's no downside to this, but it seems like an anti-Ainge type of move.So Covington is reportedly extending with PHI for 4 years/$62mn, which seems like a reasonable comparable in thinking about SMart's next contract...
Philly is 8-6, and Embiid/Simmons both look like beasts. The run could start next year. Signing Covington to a bargain deal that takes him through his age 31 season is a no-brainer.Why is a non-competitor extending a guy who will be in his 30s by the time they're set to begin their run, rather than accumulating assets for 2020 and beyond? I suppose there's no downside to this, but it seems like an anti-Ainge type of move.
Philly can now create more than $20 million in cap space next summer to chase other free agents. If the team stays healthy, keeps getting better, and makes the playoffs this season, Philly will be a top destination, along with the Lakers. Other teams with space, like the Hawks and Nets, likely don’t have the same appeal as a rising Philadelphia roster. Embiid and Simmons are becoming the type of cornerstones that other players would want to join forces with, and Covington is a necessary harmonizing force who is still getting better. Signing the deal ensures that the Sixers will have an opportunity to build on top of their solid foundation.
I agree. Smart is not a starter, and with a very capable Rozier on the team as a backup PG as well, I don't really see Smart as a must-sign player, even with all of the things he does. If you can sign him on a good deal, then sure, but handing out big contracts to mid-level talent is how you end up with a crap NBA team.Smart has an interesting and somewhat unique skill set that nicely complements this Celtic team. But at the end of the day, he's a replacable mid-round draft choice, not that far off from Rozier in overall talent or even Tony Allen in style of play.
I understand they are 8-6, but they're not getting out of the East for a few years at least. It just seems more prudent to prepare for the future and not rely on free agents finally viewing Philly as a destination. I guess it's really six of one, half dozen of the other when it comes to sign vs. trade.Philly is 8-6, and Embiid/Simmons both look like beasts. The run could start next year. Signing Covington to a bargain deal that takes him through his age 31 season is a no-brainer.
Edit: The Ringer says it better than me:
I can't tell if you haven't watched Marcus Smart or if you didn't watch Tony Allen. I guess they were similar in the sense that they were both "offense bad, defense good" types, but that is about as far as the analogy goes in my mind.Smart has an interesting and somewhat unique skill set that nicely complements this Celtic team. But at the end of the day, he's a replacable mid-round draft choice, not that far off from Rozier in overall talent or even Tony Allen in style of play.
Rozier is one year away from us having the same conversation. He also is not close to the same sort of impact defensive player and lacks Smarts versatility. Long term, I agree that the team doesn't need and won't pay to keep both Smart and Rozier but I would say that the comparison of the two players argues in favor of paying Smart (unless he gets a crazy offer) and letting Rozier walk away in a year. If Rozier takes a huge leap that complicates this, Ainge can make a trade oriented toward cost management.I agree. Smart is not a starter, and with a very capable Rozier on the team as a backup PG as well, I don't really see Smart as a must-sign player, even with all of the things he does. If you can sign him on a good deal, then sure, but handing out big contracts to mid-level talent is how you end up with a crap NBA team.
If Embiid and Simmons stay healthy they’re a top 4 team in the East next year. Fultz will be back soon, they’re probably adding another 7-10 pick this year from the Lakers, plus the $20m in space to fill holes with no bad contracts on the books. Signing Covington to that extension is a no-brainer, even if all of Fultz/Simmons/Embiid bust due to injury that’s a Jae Crowder level bargain and would be tradeable in a heartbeat.I understand they are 8-6, but they're not getting out of the East for a few years at least. It just seems more prudent to prepare for the future and not rely on free agents finally viewing Philly as a destination. I guess it's really six of one, half dozen of the other when it comes to sign vs. trade.
Related to the Ringer's point, I guess I don't really see it as sign with LA or Philly, but more "sign with LA or don't leave as a FA".
If he hit 4/11 we'd have no problem with it. Stevens *clearly* feels that the 6 "missing" points on those two three pointers is made up elsewhere.This is getting ridiculous, he is down to 26.7% for the season. I'm fine with him staying on the floor because of everything else he brings, but he took 11 three pointers last night (and hit 2), and is just under 5 attempts per game on the season. Baseball players who can't hit remain in the lineup all the time because they have a great glove, but they don't hit cleanup.
Can he still be in the game and not shoot 11 three pointers? Or, if you want to say yesterday was an outlier, 4.8 per game, and convert at an historically low rate?If he hit 4/11 we'd have no problem with it. Stevens *clearly* feels that the 6 "missing" points on those two three pointers is made up elsewhere.
It's not as if Stevens and Ainge are dumb. Smart is in the game in crunch time. He brings something to the table that they like.
Can he? Sure. But he seems to end up with the ball at the end of possessions a lot. It's definitely odd.Can he still be in the game and not shoot 11 three pointers? Or, if you want to say yesterday was an outlier, 4.8 per game, and convert at an historically low rate?
Covington's extension was really 4/$47MM but they added the remaining $15MM they had in salary cap room to his contract this year. So the money is reasonable to Covington and even in his 30s, I think 4/$47MM is a great contract for a guy who can defend and shoot threes, so long as he doesn't fall off a cliff one of these years. And given that he doesn't have a ton of wear (227 lifetime NBA games), one would think he's going to provide value through the term of his extension.Why is a non-competitor extending a guy who will be in his 30s by the time they're set to begin their run, rather than accumulating assets for 2020 and beyond? I suppose there's no downside to this, but it seems like an anti-Ainge type of move.
The Mavs weren't guarding him at times. If he doesn't shoot those, we are getting into Mark Wade territory (dated reference from UNLV).This is getting ridiculous, he is down to 26.7% for the season. I'm fine with him staying on the floor because of everything else he brings, but he took 11 three pointers last night (and hit 2), and is just under 5 attempts per game on the season. Baseball players who can't hit remain in the lineup all the time because they have a great glove, but they don't hit cleanup.
I wish someone would put together his current form versus the form he was using in the "It's a different me" video (as I am technologically challenged). It looks like he is back to shooting with his arms rather than his legs. That may be a combination of his using all his energy on the defensive end plus having not fully healed ankles.Can he? Sure. But he seems to end up with the ball at the end of possessions a lot. It's definitely odd.
Can we tell if he's using the new shooting form we heard about or if it's still the old one?
I'm going to go with no contract factor and not even a real bad slump. This is Marcus. He's demonstrated over his past 5+ seasons of basketball that he's a sub-.300 shooter from behind the arc. Factor in variance for a 28% shooter and you will have months around 20% just as you'll have months around 35%. In November this year, Smart is shooting 3's at 24% (12-50).......each of the last two seasons he's been worse during the month of March. Last season, 19% (12-64) and the prior March at 14% (8 for yikes......57!). We may not have even seen the worst 3-point shooting of the year from Smart yet!Have to wonder how much his contract situation is playing into this. He’s probably feeling pressure to demonstrate improved scoring ability and it may be working against him. Or he may just be in a really bad slump, even for him.
I usually lean toward Doug Gottlieb from his Oak State days or Abdul Abdullah for the locals.......but kudos on the Wade reference.The Mavs weren't guarding him at times. If he doesn't shoot those, we are getting into Mark Wade territory (dated reference from UNLV).
Do I get extra credit if I say that the current Cs defense looks a lot like the "Amoeba"? That UNLV team is still like my favorite non-Cs team of all time.I usually lean toward Doug Gottlieb from his Oak State days or Abdul Abdullah for the locals.......but kudos on the Wade reference.
Being half Armenian and a basketball junkie I grew up a YUGE Tarkanian and Rebel fan. Reggie Theus was my favorite player as a youth but I also loved that Final Four team with Wade and Gerald Paddio. I was in heaven that year in New Orleans for the Final Four with my Providence Friars and UNLV both in the house!! Had a sandwich standing next to Dickie V and his wife, watched Bobby Huggins pass out at the bar face first onto the floor (or was that the Tampa Final Four?).Do I get extra credit if I say that the current Cs defense looks a lot like the "Amoeba"? That UNLV team is still like my favorite non-Cs team of all time.
Correlation vs Causation?If Smart maintains this for a whole season, statheads will still be studying and trying to explain the statistical anomaly that is Marcus Smart twenty years from now. In terms of raw unadjusted box score:
The Celtics are +134 points so far this season in the 56% of possible minutes Smart has played.
The Celtics are +12 points in the other 44% of minutes Smart has not been on the court.
And, he would probably have the lowest FG% of all time. It's just that he does so many other things so well, and has relatively few other negative plays, which makes up for it.
My son is well tired of listening to me bitch every other night about both Smart and Rozier and their epic brickitude.Correlation vs Causation?
Yeah like when Kyrie is hitting back-to-back 3's upon Smart entering the game and hunkered down in the corner as he did last night. There's value in that as nobody wishes in a long 3 from the weak side better than Marcus. It's the intangibles that matter.
/snarky
Thing is that the opposing D are just going to keep dropping off him to go to other players because he hasn't proved that he can hit the 3. I would like to see him drive to the hoop more often, but, once again, they are just going to back off him because of his lack of 3 ability.Can he still be in the game and not shoot 11 three pointers? Or, if you want to say yesterday was an outlier, 4.8 per game, and convert at an historically low rate?
The problem is he can't drive to the hoop and make shots either. Maybe his driving to the hoop would open up some kick outs, which he is good at, but other teams shouldn't be too concerned with him in the paint either. He's shooting 27% from two this season which is well below his career mark so hopefully there is some room for improvement there, but right now he just cannot put the ball in the basket from anywhere but the free throw line.Thing is that the opposing D are just going to keep dropping off him to go to other players because he hasn't proved that he can hit the 3. I would like to see him drive to the hoop more often, but, once again, they are just going to back off him because of his lack of 3 ability.
Because they want to make a major free agent signing this summer and locking up the floor-spacing defensive roleplayer is icing on the cake. His extension makes the ensuing 4/47 really easy to trade if their big splash is someone like LeBron (and really, wouldn't it be just like James to take over a franchise like the Sixers now that they have their foundational stars in place?).Why is a non-competitor extending a guy who will be in his 30s by the time they're set to begin their run, rather than accumulating assets for 2020 and beyond? I suppose there's no downside to this, but it seems like an anti-Ainge type of move.
They drop off him from the three point line. But as I pointed out above, and as this article also observes, you simply don't drop off someone in a dangerous position near the hoop, no matter how bad they are. All your instincts, coaching, and common sense tell players to collapse on someone near the hoop. Doesn't matter if its Marcus Smart. And he consistently gets into those positions and makes good plays when he doesn't shoot.Thing is that the opposing D are just going to keep dropping off him to go to other players because he hasn't proved that he can hit the 3. I would like to see him drive to the hoop more often, but, once again, they are just going to back off him because of his lack of 3 ability.
He's playing starters minutes as is often on the floor with the first unit, each of whom also have enormous individual net positives. This is what +/- says when you win 15 in a row......your guys playing the most minutes will have huge net positive numbers and Smart is on the floor with most of the higher usage 5-man units.My son is well tired of listening to me bitch every other night about both Smart and Rozier and their epic brickitude.
I remain a skeptic on many of the metrics.
But Smart is somehow a net positive on the scoreboard pretty much ever night. As the sample size continues to grow, I'm at a loss as to how to explain it.
He's also on the floor a lot with Rozier, Semi, and some hodgepodge of Larkin, Morris, Baynes, etc. That four defender, one scorer lineup is getting a ton of play lately, yet he is still always at the top of plus minus. And generally four of those guys aren't doing jack offensively, himself included.He's playing starters minutes as is often on the floor with the first unit, each of whom also have enormous individual net positives. This is what +/- says when you win 15 in a row......your guys playing the most minutes will have huge net positive numbers and Smart is on the floor with most of the higher usage 5-man units.
I feel a lot of what he brings to the table defensively offsets his horrific shooting......but make no mistake, when Kyrie and Jaylen are shooting as they have and Smart is on the floor with them his +/- numbers are going to be inflated some. I do give him plenty of credit for the defensive side of the ball and the closeouts on Curry and Thompson in the Oakland game. That was all him......when other Celtics are hitting 3's while he's on the floor it really isn't him but he gets credit per some metrics.
So one thing that would be hard to capture, even in on-off, is the way that players like Jaylen and Kyrie are improving on defense. Obviously he contributes heavily to a culture of max effort, but I also imagine that someone who is as technically obsessed with basketball as Kyrie clearly is probably learns things from him. Tatum has specifically mentioned Smart as being a big influence on defense.My son is well tired of listening to me bitch every other night about both Smart and Rozier and their epic brickitude.
I remain a skeptic on many of the metrics.
But Smart is somehow a net positive on the scoreboard pretty much ever night. As the sample size continues to grow, I'm at a loss as to how to explain it.
+1They drop off him from the three point line. But as I pointed out above, and as this article also observes, you simply don't drop off someone in a dangerous position near the hoop, no matter how bad they are. All your instincts, coaching, and common sense tell players to collapse on someone near the hoop. Doesn't matter if its Marcus Smart. And he consistently gets into those positions and makes good plays when he doesn't shoot.
My question is, who has he been on the court with? Can the amount of +134 be divvied up between Smart and the other players? When Smart is on the floor are they playing a different type of game than when he is not on the floor?The Celtics are +134 points so far this season in the 56% of possible minutes Smart has played.
The Celtics are +12 points in the other 44% of minutes Smart has not been on the court.
Marcus more or less splits his court time with both units. He comes early at the start of each half (usually for Tatum), plays with the remaining starters as they sub-out, anchors the 2nd unit, sits towards the middle of the 2nd and 4th and then comes in to close the half (usually for Morris).My question is, who has he been on the court with? Can the amount of +134 be divvied up between Smart and the other players? When Smart is on the floor are they playing a different type of game than when he is not on the floor?
I'm not necessarily trying to dispute his worth, just trying to better understand.
Yes, good post by jasail.One thing that is obvious from watching a lot of these possessions is that Smart is called upon to shoot a lot on broken plays or when other players on the second unit are excessively deferential.
edit: or what jasail said above
Thanks for taking time to reply to my questions. Since the other half doesn't like basketball I follow the Celtics through box scores, which don't present the whole picture.Marcus more or less splits his court time with both units...
If you get League Pass, you can watch the games on your computer. Or you can tape them and watch them when the -Ette is out of the house (or asleep, like I do).Thanks for taking time to reply to my questions. Since the other half doesn't like basketball I follow the Celtics through box scores, which don't present the whole picture.
And thanks to others for their input, too.
Here you go: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/smartma01/lineups/2018My question is, who has he been on the court with? Can the amount of +134 be divvied up between Smart and the other players? When Smart is on the floor are they playing a different type of game than when he is not on the floor?
I'm not necessarily trying to dispute his worth, just trying to better understand.
Oh, I didn't stumble onto that. Thanks, that's a useful breakdown.
Yeah, but too much time involved. With baseball it's easy to do something else while following the game. And watching the Bruins take a chunk of my time.If you get League Pass, you can watch the games on your computer. Or you can tape them and watch them when the -Ette is out of the house (or asleep, like I do).