Should the Red Sox consider Jose Bautista?

[Plympton91]

Seriously? Which AL East line-up do you like better? And which of those has a better pithing staff?

We're not the George Steinbrenner Yankees. The team isn't going to have every position covered with 2 good-to-great options. There will be some flaws.

This isn't about what to do now, or a disagreement with the idea that the team is stacked. My post responded to someone who posted confidently that this would remain true on June 1st. Baseball isn't that predictable. There's a decent chance that when we get to June 1st, enough will have gone wrong that looking at Bautista then, if he's still available, might be a good move.

Let's see if I can boil it down futher: "Shit happens, no need to burn bridges and foreclose potential options for June in January."

 

[YTF]

Bradley
Betts
Benintendi
Young
Holt
Brentz

Those are the OF on the 40-man currently.

Additionally, there's Castillo, Craig, Junior Lake, and Brian Bogusevic in the minors with MLB experience. Then also Moreland and Marco Hernandez are probably the emergency options.

Blake Swihart is also listed on the 40 man as an outfielder.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

...There's a decent chance that when we get to June 1st, enough will have gone wrong that looking at Bautista then, if he's still available, might be a good move.

Let's see if I can boil it down futher: "Shit happens, no need to burn bridges and foreclose potential options for June in January."

Ok, that's fine. I think that's the philosophy the team is actually taking. Trade Buch, get CBT space, and see what needs might develop in April/May. Then trade (or sign a lingering FA) to fix it.

 

[Sampo Gida]

I dont see Bautista taking a chance and waiting till June even if he has to sign a 1 year deal for as little as 10 million. Teams are going to be wary after seeing what happened to Drew and Morales a couple years back.

Obviously, to give up a 1st round pick knowing its only for 1 year no matter how well he hits makes little sense. But maybe if they offer 20 million for year 1 with team options of 15 million for year 2 and year 3. If Bautista busts in 2017 then the options dont get picked up. However, if he rebounds as his history suggests he probably will, you actually have him for 3 years at reasonable money. Bautista takes it because he will be 1 year older and even w/o draft pick compensation a 37 yo DH wont be getting much more than 15 million for 2 years, and it doesn't look like he has any other alternatives. It will mean he never gets that huge payday, but he gets to finish his career on a good team and a park that will help his numbers, and maybe get another year or two in for the Red Sox after and finds a way to survive and feed his family on 15 million a year or so.

Not saying there is no risk, but its limited to 2017 and a late round pick, and if it pays off, you have a pretty good hitter for up to 3 years. If it pays off in 2017 then they could probably move Pablo in the offseason ( if he has a good year) to get under the CBT and make room for Devers.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Someone in favor of this please make an argument beyond "what if all these people get hurt' or 'we lost Ortiz and need another impact bat'?

As in, assume all players in the lineup meet projections and then assess how many wins Bautista would add in that scenario. Fuck, tell me how many wins you calculate Bautista would add in any given scenario, including team plane crash is you like.

Then convince me why it would be worth the marginal upgrade to sacrifice a first round pick, (even more importantly) the slot money assigned to that and don't forget to factor in the return to luxury tax status in all your assessments.

Please also consider 25/40 man roster implications, comparison of run differential expected this year vs last with the pitching additions, state if the farm with regards to draft pick forfeiture for a one year deal and expectations for a 36 year old with annual negative defensive value and how he slots into the lineup on a full time basis to make this all worth while.

I'll hang up and wait.

 

[Pozo the Clown]

I'll hang up and wait.

I'm thinking that we can lock this thread now,

 

[Bernie Carbohydrate]

I'm thinking that we can lock this thread now,

I don't like how this idea has been shouted down with no regard for Bautista's versatility. For all the caviling about the 25/40 man roster, why hasn't anyone pointed out that you save a roster spot with this proposed transaction. Looking at these numbers, Bautista shapes up to be a decent spot starter/long man.

 

[In my lifetime]

I don't like how this idea has been shouted down with not regard for Bautista's versatility. For all the caviling about the 25/40 man roster, why hasn't anyone pointed out that you save a roster spot with this proposed transaction. Looking at these numbers, Bautista shapes up to be a decent spot starter/long man.

Wait and then the SP7 thread can be locked too

 

[Sampo Gida]

Someone in favor of this please make an argument beyond "what if all these people get hurt' or 'we lost Ortiz and need another impact bat'?

As in, assume all players in the lineup meet projections and then assess how many wins Bautista would add in that scenario. Fuck, tell me how many wins you calculate Bautista would add in any given scenario, including team plane crash is you like.

Then convince me why it would be worth the marginal upgrade to sacrifice a first round pick, (even more importantly) the slot money assigned to that and don't forget to factor in the return to luxury tax status in all your assessments.

Please also consider 25/40 man roster implications, comparison of run differential expected this year vs last with the pitching additions, state if the farm with regards to draft pick forfeiture for a one year deal and expectations for a 36 year old with annual negative defensive value and how he slots into the lineup on a full time basis to make this all worth while.

I'll hang up and wait.

If you can acquire a 5-6 bWAR player , which is what he was before last years down season due to nagging injuries, and get him for 20 million a year and up to 3 years you do it. Even factoring in age related decline (Papi was toast at 34 after a bad year, remember?). Especially if you can cut your losses and cut bait after 1 year if it goes south , something which I suggested earlier and the Jays just did. A late 1st round pick is not changing the farm systems prospects much. Every signing has an element of risk, and there was some here, but the payoff was potentially very large

Plenty of AB for Joey in LF, DH and maybe 1B at some point after next year. They can get under the CBT next year, 1 more year year over wont kill them.

The standard error of even the best projections is +/-6 wins. If you want more confidence say at the 95% level you can double that. You just put together the best team you can and hope for the best. Bautista might have made them better.maybe significantly better. Unfortunately, that opportunity is gone. Maybe he bombs in Toronto and its for the best, but if he is kicking our ass all year and the offense goes south, we will regret it.

 

[nvalvo]

If you can acquire a 5-6 bWAR player , which is what he was before last years down season due to nagging injuries, and get him for 20 million a year and up to 3 years you do it. Even factoring in age related decline (Papi was toast at 34 after a bad year, remember?). Especially if you can cut your losses and cut bait after 1 year if it goes south , something which I suggested earlier and the Jays just did. A late 1st round pick is not changing the farm systems prospects much. Every signing has an element of risk, and there was some here, but the payoff was potentially very large

Plenty of AB for Joey in LF, DH and maybe 1B at some point after next year. They can get under the CBT next year, 1 more year year over wont kill them.

The standard error of even the best projections is +/-6 wins. If you want more confidence say at the 95% level you can double that. You just put together the best team you can and hope for the best. Bautista might have made them better.maybe significantly better. Unfortunately, that opportunity is gone. Maybe he bombs in Toronto and its for the best, but if he is kicking our ass all year and the offense goes south, we will regret it.

This is a good post, but I worry that "Papi looked done at 34" is a new "Randy Johnson didn't learn command until his late 20s," that people bring out for every Andrew Miller/Jonathan Sanchez type unhittable lefty who can't throw strikes. Those things are remarkable, because the overwhelming trend is the other direction.

Why compare Bautista to Ortiz instead of, say, Travis Hafner or Richie Sexson or Pat Burrell or Jeromy Burnitz or any number of good power hitters who declined in their mid 30s?

 

[Trotski]

1 year 18 million, back to Toronto. Lock it up!

 

[Mueller's Twin Grannies]

Nick Cafardo is quietly outraged somewhere.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

If you can acquire a 5-6 bWAR player , which is what he was before last years down season due to nagging injuries, and get him for 20 million a year and up to 3 years you do it. Even factoring in age related decline (Papi was toast at 34 after a bad year, remember?). Especially if you can cut your losses and cut bait after 1 year if it goes south , something which I suggested earlier and the Jays just did. A late 1st round pick is not changing the farm systems prospects much. Every signing has an element of risk, and there was some here, but the payoff was potentially very large

Plenty of AB for Joey in LF, DH and maybe 1B at some point after next year. They can get under the CBT next year, 1 more year year over wont kill them.

The standard error of even the best projections is +/-6 wins. If you want more confidence say at the 95% level you can double that. You just put together the best team you can and hope for the best. Bautista might have made them better.maybe significantly better. Unfortunately, that opportunity is gone. Maybe he bombs in Toronto and its for the best, but if he is kicking our ass all year and the offense goes south, we will regret it.

This is kind of a placeholder because I'm on mobile and want to take the time for an earnest response, but I disagree with a lot of this. Nvalvo's response about even bringing Papi up is a start though.