Second Guesser's Club - North of the Border.

[absintheofmalaise]

[tablegrid= Probable Starters ]   W L G GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP Game 1: 7:07 John Lackey RHP 10 6 19 19 123.1 7.95 2.04 1.02 0.309 73.10% 46.50% 12.10% 3.79 3.53 3.25   Drew Hutchison RHP 6 8 19 19 110.1 8.16 3.1 0.9 0.296 72.70% 35.90% 7.90% 4.16 3.74 4.04                                   Game 2: 7:07 Jake Peavy RHP 1 8 19 19 117.2 7.11 3.29 1.38 0.297 74.40% 39.70% 12.10% 4.59 4.72 4.34   JA Happ LHP 7 5 17 13 77 7.48 3.86 1.05 0.326 70.50% 42.70% 9.60% 4.91 4.28 4.31                                   Game 3: 7:07 Clay Buchholz RHP 5 5 15 15 85.2 6.83 2.63 1.26 0.336 66.30% 43.60% 11.50% 5.46 4.43 4.14   RA Dickey RHP 7 10 21 21 132 7.57 3.41 1.23 0.269 72.20% 41.80% 12.10% 3.95 4.55 4.21                                   Game 4: 12:37 Rubby de la Rosa RHP 3 2 7 7 44.1 7.11 2.44 1.02 0.252 85.40% 47.70% 12.80% 2.64 3.84 3.49   Marcus Stroman RHP 5 2 14 9 60.1 7.76 1.94 0.75 0.298 71.20% 49.50% 8.10% 3.58 3.24 3.47 [/tablegrid]

 

[caminante11]

Thank you for these threads.  The fourth game is at 12:37 PM.

 

[jscola85]

Surprised by how well (excepting Dickey) all these Toronto pitchers have done keeping the ball in the yard, given where they pitch half their games.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Thank you for these threads.  The fourth game is at 12:37 PM.

Thanks. Changed!

 

[absintheofmalaise]

vs. RHP
 
[tablegrid= vs.RHP ]vs. RHP G AB PA H 1B 2B 3B HR R RBI BB IBB SO HBP SF SH GDP AVG Dan Johnson 5 11 17 4 2 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 5 0 1 0 0 0.364 Darin Mastroianni 5 6 6 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 0.333 Melky Cabrera 91 290 314 94 69 15 2 8 8 33 19 0 40 1 3 1 5 0.324 Munenori Kawasaki 28 73 82 22 18 3 1 0 0 4 6 0 18 1 0 2 1 0.301 Dioner Navarro 77 206 221 57 42 11 0 4 4 32 12 0 34 0 3 0 4 0.277 Jose Reyes 74 247 263 68 48 12 2 6 6 20 15 0 32 1 0 0 0 0.275 Jose Bautista 90 252 313 68 42 16 0 10 10 42 52 4 47 4 4 1 11 0.27 Josh Thole 28 59 67 15 13 2 0 0 0 5 8 0 9 0 0 0 0 0.254 Juan Francisco 67 175 196 44 19 11 1 13 13 30 19 0 75 1 1 0 2 0.251 Anthony Gose 42 97 113 24 21 2 1 0 0 5 14 0 25 1 0 1 3 0.247 Colby Rasmus 56 168 176 41 19 10 1 11 11 25 7 0 54 1 0 0 1 0.244 Erik Kratz 19 38 40 7 6 1 0 0 0 2 2 0 5 0 0 0 2 0.184 Steve Tolleson 27 43 49 4 3 0 1 0 0 3 4 0 15 1 0 1 1 0.093 [/tablegrid] 

 

[Saints Rest]

Its' interesting to look at Happ and Peavy side by side: their peripherals (other than IP and GS) are pretty similar), but their W/L records are miles apart.  Yet another data point in the relative uselessness of a W-L record for judging a SP, either good or bad.

 

[bellowthecat]

Surprised by how well (excepting Dickey) all these Toronto pitchers have done keeping the ball in the yard, given where they pitch half their games.

 
Especially given how those xFIPs look.  The Blue Jays rank 13th in pitcher fWAR, but they're dead last in xFIP and 5th worst in FIP (MLB wide).  Hopefully some HR regression happens starting tonight to the Sox benefit.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Some of those fancy sabermetric stats:
 
[tablegrid= vs RHP ]vs. RHP PA BB% K%   BB/K OBP SLG OPS ISO BABIP wRC wRAA wOBA wRC+ Dan Johnson 17 29.40% 29.40% 1 0.529 0.545 1.075 0.182 0.571 4 1.9 0.459 193 Darin Mastroianni 6 0.00% 33.30% 0 0.333 0.333 0.667 0 0.5 1 -0.1 0.297 83 Melky Cabrera 314 6.10% 12.70% 0.48 0.364 0.472 0.837 0.148 0.351 47 13.2 0.367 130 Munenori Kawasaki 82 7.30% 22.00% 0.33 0.363 0.37 0.732 0.068 0.4 10 1.1 0.33 105 Dioner Navarro 221 5.40% 15.40% 0.35 0.312 0.388 0.701 0.112 0.31 23 -0.6 0.309 91 Jose Reyes 263 5.70% 12.20% 0.47 0.319 0.413 0.732 0.138 0.297 31 2.4 0.324 101 Jose Bautista 313 16.60% 15.00% 1.11 0.397 0.452 0.85 0.183 0.291 49 15 0.374 135 Josh Thole 67 11.90% 13.40% 0.89 0.343 0.288 0.631 0.034 0.3 6 -1 0.294 80 Juan Francisco 196 9.70% 38.30% 0.25 0.327 0.549 0.875 0.297 0.352 31 10 0.378 138 Anthony Gose 113 12.40% 22.10% 0.56 0.348 0.289 0.637 0.041 0.333 11 -1.3 0.297 83 Colby Rasmus 176 4.00% 30.70% 0.13 0.278 0.512 0.79 0.268 0.291 23 4.1 0.342 114 Erik Kratz 40 5.00% 12.50% 0.4 0.225 0.211 0.436 0.026 0.212 1 -3.5 0.2 16 Steve Tolleson 49 8.20% 30.60% 0.27 0.188 0.14 0.327 0.047 0.143 0 -5.7 0.162 -10 [/tablegrid]

 

[joe dokes]

Dan Johnson. He keeps showing up at the worst times.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

The kids are alright:
 
Holt RF
Pedroia 2B
Ortiz DH
Napoli 1B
Nava LF
Drew SS
Bogaerts 3B
Bradley CF
Vazquez C
Lackey RHP

 

[jscola85]

The kids are alright:
 
Holt RF
Pedroia 2B
Ortiz DH
Napoli 1B
Nava LF
Drew SS
Bogaerts 3B
Bradley CF
Vazquez C
Lackey RHP

 
Hutchison has a fairly large lefty-righty split (4.40 FIP vs lefties, 3.52 vs. righties), so good to see we are at least getting Holt and Drew in the lineup.

 

[jscola85]

 
Especially given how those xFIPs look.  The Blue Jays rank 13th in pitcher fWAR, but they're dead last in xFIP and 5th worst in FIP (MLB wide).  Hopefully some HR regression happens starting tonight to the Sox benefit.

Ask and ye shall receive! 4 Dingers thus far tonight.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

The kids are alright:
 
Holt CF
Pedroia 2B
Ortiz DH
Napoli 1B
Gomes LF
Victorino RF
Drew SS
Bogaerts 3B
Ross C
Peavy RHP
 
The "no fly balls to left field please" lineup.

 

[jscola85]

That lineup screams Carp pinch-hitting for Gomes in the middle innings as soon as Happ is out of the game.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

How valuable is Brock Holt? He's basically giving someone a day of rest while playing every single day. It's remarkable and something I've never seen before.

He's allowing a rotation of Drew, Xander, Victorino, and Bradley to happen and that is a beautiful thing.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

That lineup screams Carp pinch-hitting for Gomes in the middle innings as soon as Happ is out of the game.

If Happ isn't chased early........

 

[Super Nomario]

How valuable is Brock Holt? He's basically giving someone a day of rest while playing every single day. It's remarkable and something I've never seen before.

He's allowing a rotation of Drew, Xander, Victorino, and Bradley to happen and that is a beautiful thing.

Per BBREF, Holt hasn't had an inning off since May 17th, his first game after being called up from the minors.

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

That lineup screams Carp pinch-hitting for Gomes in the middle innings as soon as Happ is out of the game.

 
Screams... except to Farrell.  We'll see. 

 

[smastroyin]

I'm a little concerned that they are giving JBJ the day off on a day where Peavy is starting, considering of the active starters he gives up the most fly balls.  But, hey, whatever, at least he is going with batting splits now instead of completely against them for no discernible reason.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

[tablegrid= Happ Splits ]Happ Splits IP H 2B 3B R ER HR BB IBB HBP K Avg OBP Slg wOBA Home vs. L 7 6 1 0 3 3 2 6 0 0 6 0.214 0.364 0.481 0.374 Home vs. R 37 38 8 1 17 16 5 9 0 0 33 0.26 0.303 0.434 0.323                                   K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 K% BB% K/BB% Avg WHIP BABIP LOB% FIP xFIP     Home vs. L 7.71 7.71 1 2.57 17.70% 17.70% 0.00% 0.214 1.71 0.2 97.80% 7.72 5.27     Home vs. R 8.03 2.19 3.67 1.22 21.30% 5.80% 15.50% 0.26 1.27 0.306 75.00% 3.85 3.8 [/tablegrid]

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

How valuable is Brock Holt? He's basically giving someone a day of rest while playing every single day. It's remarkable and something I've never seen before.

He's allowing a rotation of Drew, Xander, Victorino, and Bradley to happen and that is a beautiful thing.

 
 

Holt is what Pedroia used to be, while playing every damn position. Amazing.

 
Wouldn't surprise me to see him spell Pedroia for a game on this 7 game Artificial Turf road trip.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

I'm a little concerned that they are giving JBJ the day off on a day where Peavy is starting, considering of the active starters he gives up the most fly balls.  But, hey, whatever, at least he is going with batting splits now instead of completely against them for no discernible reason.

 
I'm also surprised it's not Victorino in CF with Holt in RF. They keep asking the kid to be superhuman.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Holt has played CF this year. Victorino has not. And with Shane returning from injury they sure are not going to put him in CF on artificial turf.

 

[Max Power]

How does Drew come up against the shift with a lefty on the mound twice and not attempt a single bunt down the third base line?

 

[RetractableRoof]

Why isn't the manager prepared with a quick hook for Peavy for the 5/6/7th innings?  I don't know if they are trying to showcase him for trades, or what have you... but I'm beyond frustrated with Peavy only giving up a couple or three runs through 5/6 and then having the game get away from the Sox when they try to get one more out of him.  
 
Or maybe my eyes are lying to my head...

 

[Stan Papi Was Framed]

Why isn't the manager prepared with a quick hook for Peavy for the 5/6/7th innings?  I don't know if they are trying to showcase him for trades, or what have you... but I'm beyond frustrated with Peavy only giving up a couple or three runs through 5/6 and then having the game get away from the Sox when they try to get one more out of him.  
 
Or maybe my eyes are lying to my head...

I'm with you.  I don't think this is new. I remember Farrell showing a slow hook with Peavy last year too..though not sure how often this happened last year (of course, limited opportunities)

 

[Plympton91]

Can Stephen Drew not bunt? In both cases where Drew was up with 2 outs and a runner on third, the Blue Jays were playing the shift such that there was no third baseman. Especially given Drew's continued inability to hit lefthanders, there is absolutely no reason at all not to calling for the squeeze in that situation, even with 2 outs. Ridiculous.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

Can Stephen Drew not bunt? In both cases where Drew was up with 2 outs and a runner on third, the Blue Jays were playing the shift such that there was no third baseman. Especially given Drew's continued inability to hit lefthanders, there is absolutely no reason at all not to calling for the squeeze in that situation, even with 2 outs. Ridiculous.

You know. I actually had a very long talk with a friend about this the other day.

The shift is taking away alot of hits. A lot. Teams are doing it a ton because it is working... often.

Why do players not bunt against it more often? Teams are strategically shifting again them and in doing so they are leaving themselves incredibly vulnerable to bunt hits. So why not take it? Are players that convinced they are taking the bat out of their own hands?

 

[benhogan]

You know. I actually had a very long talk with a friend about this the other day.

The shift is taking away alot of hits. A lot. Teams are doing it a ton because it is working... often.

Why do players not bunt against it more often? Teams are strategically shifting again them and in doing so they are leaving themselves incredibly vulnerable to bunt hits. So why not take it? Are players that convinced they are taking the bat out of their own hands?

Makes you think that the defensive shifts are the main culprit of widespread offensive suppression this year.

 

[Rasputin]

Why do players not bunt against it more often? Teams are strategically shifting again them and in doing so they are leaving themselves incredibly vulnerable to bunt hits. So why not take it? Are players that convinced they are taking the bat out of their own hands

Bunting is hard.

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

Bunting is hard.

So is getting a base hit when your spray chart coincides with the shift. Maybe they could practice the skill and improve, because shifts aren't going away as long as they work so well.

 

[RetractableRoof]

So is getting a base hit when your spray chart coincides with the shift. Maybe they could practice the skill and improve, because shifts aren't going away as long as they work so well.

This NYTimes article by Tyler Kepner shows the number of shifts per year exploding - it isn't going away until the batters (and teams) show a willingness and ability to execute the bunt that is being offered as a trade-off against the shift.
 
Excerpt:
Teams shifted about 2,400 times in 2010 and 2011, said Ben Jedlovec, a vice president for the company, and about 4,500 times in 2012. Last season, the total jumped to about 8,100, and teams are on pace for 13,000 shifts in 2014.

 

[patinorange]

Bunting is hard.

No. It is not. Every scrub pitcher in the National League can lay down a bunt. It's probably the only teachable hitting skill. As more teams go to the shift it may be something the Red Sox may want to work on going forward.

I can understand sluggers not being good at bunting. But a hitter like Drew? He should be an expert.

 

[Rasputin]

No. It is not. Every scrub pitcher in the National League can lay down a bunt. It's probably the only teachable hitting skill. As more teams go to the shift it may be something the Red Sox may want to work on going forward.

I can understand sluggers not being good at bunting. But a hitter like Drew? He should be an expert.

Something isn't easy just because it's teachable. The bunts laid down by all those scrub pitchers are a different kind of bunt entirely and they spend a lot of time practicing it. I think everyone who gets shifted should spend time every day learning how to bunt but they don't seem to care what I think.

 

[k-factory]

Common sense suggests that it would be inevitable that bunting is a skill that will be required of hitters going forward as a counter measure to the shift strategy that has exploded around baseball.
Interestingly the Rasmus/Lewis drama shines a spotlight on the 'unwritten rule' of bunting against the shift. On BP's Effectively Wild podcast, Ben Lindbergh suggested that Lewis' position was one that most in mlb were sympathetic to rather than Rasmus'.
Granted there were other variables at play but it was just a 2 run game in the 5th. Very justifiable.
So there is this cultural hurdle to overcome to make it an acceptable tactic. I find it surprising because the fielders have accepted the shift as a part of the game (they enact it nearly every inning) and perhaps as a result we don't hear them railing against it when they are in the batter's box.
Seems like the first teams to break through that taboo consistently (I'm guessing the A's) will have a leg up on everyone else.

 

[Plympton91]

Yeah, any player or pitcher who thinks that shifting is perfectly fine and manly but bunting for hit against it is out of bounds can go fvck themselves. Either both are kosher or neither is; I'd have no probkem effectively outlawing the shift instead

Getting back to our "manager" how in the hell can you justify letting Peavy start the 7th?

 

[P'tucket rhymes with...]

On BP's Effectively Wild podcast, Ben Lindbergh suggested that Lewis' position was one that most in mlb were sympathetic to rather than Rasmus'.
 

 
I'd love to see his polling data on that, because I haven't seen so much as an anonymous quote from an MLB player saying that he thought Rasmus was in the wrong.  Any "cultural" reservations hitters might have about bunting in that situation probably have more to do with the macho impulse to beat the shift on its own terms.

 

[Saints Rest]

Bunting is hard.

I would think that bunting for a sacrifice, when teams are defending against it and pitching against it -- that is hard.
Bunting for a base hit with one or both corner infielders expecting it (because you are a "speed guy") -- that's hard.
But bunting toward the left side of the infield when the closest player is one IF playing what would nominally be shortstop at double-play depth -- that can't be THAT hard.

 

[MakMan44]

I would think that bunting for a sacrifice, when teams are defending against it and pitching against it -- that is hard.
Bunting for a base hit with one or both corner infielders expecting it (because you are a "speed guy") -- that's hard.
But bunting toward the left side of the infield when the closest player is one IF playing what would nominally be shortstop at double-play depth -- that can't be THAT hard.

It probably is when it's something you haven't been practicing for a long time. I wouldn't be surprised to learn that MiL systems were expressing more interesting in teaching their players bunting, honestly. How many times though, have we expressed rage because one of the Sox couldn't get a bunt down for a sacrifice? I imagine it's a lot harder to actively try and control where the bunt goes, so I don't know why it would be all that much easier than bunting for a sacrifice. 

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

 
I'd love to see his polling data on that, because I haven't seen so much as an anonymous quote from an MLB player saying that he thought Rasmus was in the wrong.  Any "cultural" reservations hitters might have about bunting in that situation probably have more to do with the macho impulse to beat the shift on its own terms.

 
This is equivalent to a guy taking ball four on a borderline pitch in the same situation - would Lewis have complained about that as well? 

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

So is getting a base hit when your spray chart coincides with the shift. Maybe they could practice the skill and improve, because shifts aren't going away as long as they work so well.

 
No one seems to be taking into account the fact that when there's a shift on, the pitcher will pitch into the shift, ie pitch Drew inside. Bunting an inside pitch down the 3rd base line trying for a hit is damned near impossible; it's far more likely that he'd pop it up.
 
It's much more complicated that "just bunt yourself on!" You need the right type of pitch to do that on and when there's a shift on you usually don't get it.

 

[smastroyin]

It is much more complicated.
 
On the other hand, a simple solution is to just not use Drew against lefties, or at least not hit him against lefties so high in the order.

 

[TimNJsoxfan]

Bunting is hard.

I taught my 15 year old how to bunt in an afternoon.  He had 3 bunts for hits and 4 sacrifices this past year on his freshman team.

 

[Max Power]

 
No one seems to be taking into account the fact that when there's a shift on, the pitcher will pitch into the shift, ie pitch Drew inside. Bunting an inside pitch down the 3rd base line trying for a hit is damned near impossible; it's far more likely that he'd pop it up.
 
It's much more complicated that "just bunt yourself on!" You need the right type of pitch to do that on and when there's a shift on you usually don't get it.

 
Drew got pitches to both sides of the plate in both at bats. And even if he didn't, his chances of successfully bunting a pitch on his hands down the third base line are probably still better than getting a hit off a lefty.

 

[Rasputin]

Here's something Fangraphs had about bunting several months ago.
 
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-truth-about-bunting/
 
The bottom line? Bunting is hard. You get about half of all bunt attempts that end up in fair territory, and that's all bunts including pitcher sacrifices. Bunting to a specific spot on the field...harder.
 
And as Jeff Sullivan points out:
 

And against even a hypothetical awesome bunter, you can just move the guy playing short to shallow third, and then you’re not going to see many grounders hit to where the shortstop would be. And the bunt would be all but taken away.
 

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Holt gets a day off!
 
The Kids Are Alright:
 
Victorino RF
Pedroia 2B
Ortiz DH
Napoli 1B
Nava LF
Bogaerts 3B
Drew SS
Vazquez C
Bradley Jr. CF
Buchholz RHP

 

[jscola85]

Pedroia is probably the one who should be getting a rest, though Holt deserves one as well.

 

[judyb]

Pedroia is probably the one who should be getting a rest, though Holt deserves one as well.

Farrell said on WEEI that he'd be getting one soon, too.

 

[Plympton91]

Terrible decisionmaking on the outfield positioning leading to the Goins run scoring triple. With a 1 run lead in the 6th and a runner on 1st base, you can't be playing your outfielders so shallow that a ball gets through that easily to score the runner. Thinking they're smarter than everybody else bites them in the ass again.

Oh goody, Breslow warming up. Yes, tied in the 6th inning of the most important game to date is definitely the time to use one of your worst relievers.

 

[richgedman'sghost]

Terrible decisionmaking on the outfield positioning leading to the Goins run scoring triple. With a 1 run lead in the 6th and a runner on 1st base, you can't be playing your outfielders so shallow that a ball gets through that easily to score the runner. Thinking they're smarter than everybody else bites them in the ass again.

Oh goody, Breslow warming up. Yes, tied in the 6th inning of the most important game to date is definitely the time to use one of your worst relievers.

Are you sure it wasn't Miller? Miller ended up coming in the game anyways and giving up a home run.