Second Guesser's Club - Any runs in the house? For the Sox this time.

[absintheofmalaise]

Game 1: 7:10 MLBN
Game 2: 7:10
Game 3: 4:05
Game 4: 1:35
 
[tablegrid= Probable Starters ] W L G GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP Josh Tomlin RHP 4 2 7 6 40.1 7.81 1.12 1.34 0.235 67.60% 37.30% 11.80% 3.12 3.65 3.37 Jon Lester LHP 6 7 13 13 84.1 10.14 2.45 0.85 0.342 70.60% 40.60% 10.30% 3.52 2.92 2.89                                 Justin Masterson RHP 4 4 14 14 80 8.33 4.39 0.56 0.322 66.40% 59.00% 10.40% 4.61 3.81 3.78 John Lackey RHP 7 4 13 13 87.2 7.8 1.75 0.72 0.317 75.10% 46.60% 8.00% 3.18 2.97 3.22                                 T.J. House LHP 0 1 5 4 22.1 5.64 2.82 1.61 0.333 73.30% 64.90% 33.30% 5.24 5.37 3.74 Jake Peavy RHP 1 4 13 13 81.1 6.86 3.43 1.44 0.298 74.90% 42.10% 12.90% 4.76 4.78 4.32                                 Corey Kluber   6 4 14 14 91.1 10.25 2.17 0.69 0.336 71.60% 46.80% 8.90% 3.35 2.62 2.75 Brandon Workman RHP 1 0 7 4 28.1 6.67 3.18 0.32 0.215 71.40% 41.00% 3.60% 2.86 3.12 3.95 [/tablegrid]

 

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

The Indians have scored 59 runs in the last 10 games (abetted, admittedly, by a 17 run outburst). The Sox have scored 27.
 
The Sox have not yet scored 10 runs in a game. The Indians have done it five times this season. 
 
The Indians have been shut out twice this season. The Sox have been shut out twice in the last three games (and six times thus far). 
 
This would not seem to bode well. 
 
HOWEVER:
 
 
The Sox are -12 in run differential at home this season and are an almost respectable 15-17. While the Indians -13 on the road and have been a putrid 12-22. 
 
So there's maybe some hope?

 

[absintheofmalaise]

The Xander-less line up:
 
Holt 3B
Pedroia 2B
Ortiz DH
Napoli 1B
Nava LF
Sizemore RF
Ross C
Herrera SS
Bradley Jr. CF
Lester LHP

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Cleveland:
 
Bourn CF
Cabrera SS
Brantley LF
Kipnis 2B
Santana 1B
Raburn RF
Swisher DH
Gomes C
Aviles 3B
Tomlin RHP

 

[Adrian's Dome]

6-7-8-9...eeesh.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

6-7-8-9...eeesh.

5 is at least an eeesh

 

[absintheofmalaise]

The line up vs. RHP this year
 
[tablegrid= Vs. RHP ] G AB PA H 1B 2B 3B HR R RBI BB IBB SO HBP SF SH GDP AVG Brock Holt 27 73 80 23 18 3 1 1 1 8 6 0 12 0 1 0 0 0.315 Dustin Pedroia 58 181 201 49 37 10 0 2 2 16 17 0 27 0 3 0 4 0.271 David Ortiz 57 148 172 37 22 6 0 9 9 24 24 11 26 0 0 0 0 0.25 Mike Napoli 46 124 145 31 19 6 0 6 6 21 20 0 36 1 0 0 4 0.25 Grady Sizemore 45 126 140 31 20 8 2 1 1 10 13 0 23 0 1 0 4 0.246 Jonathan Herrera 19 41 48 9 9 0 0 0 0 4 5 0 13 0 0 2 1 0.22 Daniel Nava 26 68 79 14 9 3 0 2 2 3 7 1 17 4 0 0 1 0.206 Jackie Bradley Jr 51 113 130 23 17 6 0 0 0 13 15 1 40 0 1 1 3 0.204 David Ross 19 39 39 7 4 3 0 0 0 2 0 0 13 0 0 0 0 0.179     PA BB% K% BB/K OBP SLG OPS ISO BABIP wRC wRAA wOBA wRC+           Mike Napoli 145 13.80% 24.80% 0.56 0.359 0.444 0.802 0.194 0.305 21 5 0.358 124           Brock Holt 80 7.50% 15.00% 0.5 0.363 0.425 0.787 0.11 0.361 11 2.1 0.347 117           David Ortiz 172 14.00% 15.10% 0.92 0.355 0.473 0.828 0.223 0.248 23 4.1 0.344 114           Dustin Pedroia 201 8.50% 13.40% 0.63 0.328 0.359 0.687 0.088 0.303 21 -0.9 0.307 89           Grady Sizemore 140 9.30% 16.40% 0.57 0.314 0.365 0.679 0.119 0.291 14 -1.1 0.303 86     Daniel Nava 79 8.90% 21.50% 0.41 0.316 0.338 0.655 0.132 0.245 8 -1 0.297 82     Jackie Bradley Jr 130 11.50% 30.80% 0.38 0.295 0.257 0.551 0.053 0.311 8 -6 0.254 52     Jonathan Herrera 48 10.40% 27.10% 0.38 0.304 0.22 0.524 0 0.321 3 -2.4 0.25 49     David Ross 39 0.00% 33.30% 0 0.179 0.256 0.436 0.077 0.269 1 -3.7 0.19 8 [/tablegrid]

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

If Drew isn't going to play, why don't they put him on the disabled list?

 
It's one of those "we don't think it's bad enough to keep him down for two weeks" things.  But at this point it's getting damn close to time he be put on the DL retroactively.  Even if he can play next week perhaps it's better if he goes on a rehab assignment and get some more ABs against live pitching.  Then the moment he's ready to come off the DL, perhaps he'll actually be ready to hit major league pitching again.

 

[mfried]

Nava will get two hits and four bases: e.g. a double, a single, a walk. Our no. 5 is not a eeesh.

 

[mfried]

The line up vs. RHP this year
 
[tablegrid= Vs. RHP ] G AB PA H 1B 2B 3B HR R RBI BB IBB SO HBP SF SH GDP AVG Brock Holt 27 73 80 23 18 3 1 1 1 8 6 0 12 0 1 0 0 0.315 Dustin Pedroia 58 181 201 49 37 10 0 2 2 16 17 0 27 0 3 0 4 0.271 David Ortiz 57 148 172 37 22 6 0 9 9 24 24 11 26 0 0 0 0 0.25 Mike Napoli 46 124 145 31 19 6 0 6 6 21 20 0 36 1 0 0 4 0.25 Grady Sizemore 45 126 140 31 20 8 2 1 1 10 13 0 23 0 1 0 4 0.246 Jonathan Herrera 19 41 48 9 9 0 0 0 0 4 5 0 13 0 0 2 1 0.22 Daniel Nava 26 68 79 14 9 3 0 2 2 3 7 1 17 4 0 0 1 0.206 Jackie Bradley Jr 51 113 130 23 17 6 0 0 0 13 15 1 40 0 1 1 3 0.204 David Ross 19 39 39 7 4 3 0 0 0 2 0 0 13 0 0 0 0 0.179     PA BB% K% BB/K OBP SLG OPS ISO BABIP wRC wRAA wOBA wRC+           Mike Napoli 145 13.80% 24.80% 0.56 0.359 0.444 0.802 0.194 0.305 21 5 0.358 124           Brock Holt 80 7.50% 15.00% 0.5 0.363 0.425 0.787 0.11 0.361 11 2.1 0.347 117           David Ortiz 172 14.00% 15.10% 0.92 0.355 0.473 0.828 0.223 0.248 23 4.1 0.344 114           Dustin Pedroia 201 8.50% 13.40% 0.63 0.328 0.359 0.687 0.088 0.303 21 -0.9 0.307 89           Grady Sizemore 140 9.30% 16.40% 0.57 0.314 0.365 0.679 0.119 0.291 14 -1.1 0.303 86     Daniel Nava 79 8.90% 21.50% 0.41 0.316 0.338 0.655 0.132 0.245 8 -1 0.297 82     Jackie Bradley Jr 130 11.50% 30.80% 0.38 0.295 0.257 0.551 0.053 0.311 8 -6 0.254 52     Jonathan Herrera 48 10.40% 27.10% 0.38 0.304 0.22 0.524 0 0.321 3 -2.4 0.25 49     David Ross 39 0.00% 33.30% 0 0.179 0.256 0.436 0.077 0.269 1 -3.7 0.19 8 [/tablegrid]

Wow: Bradley's OPS vs. RH is better than Ross's.

 

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

Our starting nine has 31 homers amongst them. 
 
Cleveland's has 42. 
 
Toronto's has 76. 

 

[BosRedSox5]

Our starting nine has 31 homers amongst them. 
 
Cleveland's has 42. 
 
Toronto's has 76. 

 
I know that there's more to baseball than the longball, but I kind of feel like this is the late 80's early 90's Red Sox where 20ish homeruns led the team. The Sox went from 84 (43, Tony Armas) to 96 (44, Mo Vauhgn) without a 40 homerun hitter. We haven't had a home grown power hitter in a long time. Ellsbury hit 32 in 2011 though I'd hardly call him a power hitter. Nomar hit 30 and 35 in 97 and 98 respectively and Vaughn reached 30+ homeruns for six seasons in a row, four with the Red Sox. 

It seems like there's been a power outage for a while. 

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

 
I know that there's more to baseball than the longball, but I kind of feel like this is the late 80's early 90's Red Sox where 20ish homeruns led the team. The Sox went from 84 (43, Tony Armas) to 96 (44, Mo Vauhgn) without a 40 homerun hitter. We haven't had a home grown power hitter in a long time. Ellsbury hit 32 in 2011 though I'd hardly call him a power hitter. Nomar hit 30 and 35 in 97 and 98 respectively and Vaughn reached 30+ homeruns for six seasons in a row, four with the Red Sox. 

It seems like there's been a power outage for a while. 

 
Over the past five full seasons, there have been 10 seasons of 40 HRs in the AL. Ellsbury's 32 HR in 2011 was sixth in the AL. Vaughn's 44 in '96 was seventh. It's not 1998 any more. 

 

[smastroyin]

He's got something of a point about home grown, it's whether home grown really makes a huge difference.
 
Red Sox ranks in HR in the AL.  2014 and backward going back to the strike.  World Series winning years in Bold, Playoffs Underscore, 90 wins Italic.
 
13, 5, 9, 3, 2, 3, 6, 8, 6, 5, 4, 2, 7, 6, 11, 9, 5, 6, 6, 4
 
To me it actually feels more like 2005/6, where Manny Ortez was basically the entire SLG capability of the team.  Only this year there is no Manny, unless Xander or Napoli get hot.

 

[Adrian's Dome]

So, that Nava dude's last five games:
 
3/4
0/3
1/2 with a BB (against Norris who only allowed 3 hits total)
1/4
3/4
 
8/17, bringing his AVG from .134 to .192. I was all for the Grady experiment, but it hasn't worked out and in no way should he be seeing ABs against RHP over this guy, especially once Victorino comes back. I firmly believe Daniel's struggles earlier in the season weren't predicative of anything, and when utilized properly, I believe what we're seeing now is closer to the norm expectation-wise than the player who stumbled out of the gates.

 

[Rasputin]

If Drew isn't going to play, why don't they put him on the disabled list?

Who's left to bring up? We're already starting our utility guy and using our backup utility guy.

I.mean, I'm completely on board in a general sense, but until Wombat is ready, is there a point in bring someone else up?

 

[judyb]

Who's left to bring up? We're already starting our utility guy and using our backup utility guy.

I.mean, I'm completely on board in a general sense, but until Wombat is ready, is there a point in bring someone else up?

Probably an extra SP when Workman has to serve his suspension, but anyone who could be used for anything, even if only in an emergency like Wilson or Butler, makes more sense than someone who can't be used at all, and putting Drew on the DL would give them an opportunity to give him more PAs in the minors on rehab assignment which is something he seems to have needed anyway whether he needs all 15 days of a 15 day DL to heal or not.

 

[garlan5]

I was in favor of Grady getting to get ab's for a while. But now I'd prefer he sit and jbj continue to get starts. Grady stay as a backup to CF. I think nava's time in the minors helped and looking forward to his stay. There seemed to be a faction who didn't think sending him down was a good move but I think it's proving to have worked (on short sample size now). Being able to go back to a rotation with Gomes/Nava and Victorino back from the dl will be very promising. Not sure where Brock will fit in then but I hope he stays in the line up. Maybe getting in the left field rotation and vic relieving jbj some in center at times.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Who's left to bring up? We're already starting our utility guy and using our backup utility guy.

I.mean, I'm completely on board in a general sense, but until Wombat is ready, is there a point in bring someone else up?

 
They could bring back Hassan since Holt would presumably not be needed in the OF for the time being.  I think you do that if for no other reason than to have another body on the bench that can swing a bat.  With a bad oblique, I'm assuming Drew can't hit even in an emergency situation.

 

[Coachster]

Who's left to bring up? We're already starting our utility guy and using our backup utility guy.

I.mean, I'm completely on board in a general sense, but until Wombat is ready, is there a point in bring someone else up?

I wondered this yesterday. You don't want to mess up the 40-man roster, so the only alternative if Drew goes on the DL would be Cecchini. That would be too bad, huh? X might have to play shortstop, and we could get another look at the kid.
 

 
They could bring back Hassan since Holt would presumably not be needed in the OF for the time being.  I think you do that if for no other reason than to have another body on the bench that can swing a bat.  With a bad oblique, I'm assuming Drew can't hit even in an emergency situation.

Please God, no. He's not a major league baseball player.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

So, that Nava dude's last five games:
 
3/4
0/3
1/2 with a BB (against Norris who only allowed 3 hits total)
1/4
3/4
 
8/17, bringing his AVG from .134 to .192. I was all for the Grady experiment, but it hasn't worked out and in no way should he be seeing ABs against RHP over this guy, especially once Victorino comes back. I firmly believe Daniel's struggles earlier in the season weren't predicative of anything, and when utilized properly, I believe what we're seeing now is closer to the norm expectation-wise than the player who stumbled out of the gates.

So, that Nava dude's last five games:
 
3/4
0/3
1/2 with a BB (against Norris who only allowed 3 hits total)
1/4
3/4
 
8/17, bringing his AVG from .134 to .192. I was all for the Grady experiment, but it hasn't worked out and in no way should he be seeing ABs against RHP over this guy, especially once Victorino comes back. I firmly believe Daniel's struggles earlier in the season weren't predicative of anything, and when utilized properly, I believe what we're seeing now is closer to the norm expectation-wise than the player who stumbled out of the gates.

I don't recall many of those hits being line drives. Certainly last night's performance was pretty bloopy. He still has some progress to make.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Line up:
 
Holt LF
Bogaerts 3B
Pedroia 2B
Ortiz DH
Napoli 1B
Nava RF
Pierzynski C
Herrera SS
Bradley Jr. CF
John Lackey RHP

 

[glennhoffmania]

I still don't understand why, while Drew is hurt, they don't move Bogaerts to SS, put Holt at 3B, and put an actual outfielder in LF.

 

[Super Nomario]

I still don't understand why, while Drew is hurt, they don't move Bogaerts to SS, put Holt at 3B, and put an actual outfielder in LF.

It seems like they want Bogaerts to get a comfort level at 3B instead of ping-ponging between 3B and SS.

 

[glennhoffmania]

Yeah but in the meantime if Drew is out for a couple of weeks that makes Herrera a regular, which isn't optimal.  They've said that they still view Bogaerts as a SS so I don't get the urgency to make him more comfortable at 3B.

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

Yeah but in the meantime if Drew is out for a couple of weeks that makes Herrera a regular, which isn't optimal.  They've said that they still view Bogaerts as a SS so I don't get the urgency to make him more comfortable at 3B.

What?!  Herrera's ON FIRE!  
 
Just kidding, but who would play LF?  Gomes?  Against Masterson, I'd probably just rather have Herrera playing SS.  We're in Fenway so Holt doesn't have much to cover.  But I agree with you, if Drew is going on the DL, move X back to SS.  

 

[glennhoffmania]

For now, a rotation of Gomes, Nava and Sizemore. When Victorino comes back then it would be ridiculous to leave Holt in the OF or bench him in favor of Herrera.

 

[TeddysBonefish]

 
 
The Sox have not yet scored 10 runs in a game. 
 

 
Thank you.

 

[Adrian's Dome]

Nava with another 2/4 tonight.
 
I can't help but think the Sox might have a couple more wins in the positive column had he and Gomes been properly utilized all season long instead of beginning it a week and a half ago.

 

[Rasputin]

JBJ has been on base four times in the last two games, including a triple.

Just, you know, sayin'.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Nava with another 2/4 tonight.
 
I can't help but think the Sox might have a couple more wins in the positive column had he and Gomes been properly utilized all season long instead of beginning it a week and a half ago.

 
According to this - http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2014/06/14/the-narrower-path-back-how-daniel-nava-rediscovered-his-swing/ - Nava made some mechanical adjustments at Pawtucket.
 
Edit: better explanation from BMac here:  http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/content/20140611-mechanical-adjustment-has-daniel-nava-confident-again.ece
 

"I had a little wider base than I realized, so it was impacting my ability to let my hands go and be free,” Nava said. “Then [it was] just stepping up to the plate and see the ball, hit the ball. Don’t think too much. So a combination of those at least allowed me to feel a little bit more comfortable. I think that’s the first thing you want to do as a hitter is you want to feel comfortable, so it’s just getting to that point."

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Line up vs. House LHP
 
Holt RF
Bogaerts 3B
Pedroia 2B
Ortiz DH
Napoli 1B
Gomes LF
Pierzynski C
Herrera SS
Bradley Jr. CF
Peavy RHP

 

[absintheofmalaise]

  [tablegrid= vs. LHP ]Name G AB PA H 1B 2B 3B HR R RBI BB IBB SO HBP SF SH GDP AVG Brock Holt 25 58 63 21 13 7 1 0 0 7 3 0 15 0 1 1 1 0.362 Xander Bogaerts 37 74 86 22 13 6 0 3 3 7 9 1 14 3 0 0 2 0.297 Dustin Pedroia 35 77 90 21 11 9 0 1 1 5 13 1 9 0 0 0 2 0.273 David Ortiz 43 83 99 21 13 3 0 5 5 14 12 3 17 2 2 0 3 0.253 Mike Napoli 26 45 59 14 10 4 0 0 0 5 13 1 14 1 0 0 1 0.311 Jonny Gomes 34 69 86 21 15 3 0 3 3 15 15 0 17 0 2 0 1 0.304 A.J. Pierzynski 36 65 70 13 11 1 0 1 1 10 0 0 9 2 2 1 3 0.2 Jonathan Herrera 17 27 32 7 6 1 0 0 0 3 1 0 8 2 1 1 1 0.259 Jackie Bradley Jr 43 79 88 16 8 6 1 1 1 8 5 0 25 4 0 0 2 0.203 [/tablegrid]
 
  [tablegrid= vs. LHP ]Name PA BB% K% BB/K OBP SLG OPS ISO BABIP wRC wRAA wOBA wRC+ Brock Holt 63 4.80% 23.80% 0.2 0.387 0.517 0.904 0.155 0.477 11 3.8 0.391 148 Xander Bogaerts 86 10.50% 16.30% 0.64 0.395 0.5 0.895 0.203 0.333 15 5.3 0.392 148 Dustin Pedroia 90 14.40% 10.00% 1.44 0.378 0.429 0.806 0.156 0.299 13 3.1 0.357 124 David Ortiz 99 12.10% 17.20% 0.71 0.354 0.47 0.823 0.217 0.254 14 3 0.351 120 Mike Napoli 59 22.00% 23.70% 0.93 0.475 0.4 0.875 0.089 0.452 10 3.9 0.398 152 Jonny Gomes 86 17.40% 19.80% 0.88 0.419 0.478 0.897 0.174 0.353 15 5.5 0.395 150 A.J. Pierzynski 70 0.00% 12.90% 0 0.217 0.262 0.479 0.062 0.211 2 -5.4 0.212 24 Jonathan Herrera 32 3.10% 25.00% 0.13 0.323 0.296 0.619 0.037 0.35 3 -0.7 0.283 73 Jackie Bradley Jr 88 5.70% 28.40% 0.2 0.284 0.342 0.626 0.139 0.283 8 -2 0.283 73 [/tablegrid]

 

[curly2]

Nope. Should have been a simple blueprint: Miller in the 7th Tazawa in the 8th, Koji in the 9th.

 

[Adrian's Dome]

Batting Nava for Herrera instead of Bradley seems like a mistake too, but fairly subjective I guess.

 
Need Bradley's D if it gets tied and Nava comes into the game. He goes to right, X to SS, Holt to 3B. No issue with that move.

 

[Plympton91]

Yeah I'm trying to figure out how Breslow is the option over Miller at this point too.

Separately, Breslow hasn't been effective since the Division Series. I'm hoping he wasn't Proctored last fall.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Holt 3B
Pedroia 2B
Ortiz DH
Napoli 1B
Nava LF
Pierzynski C
Sizemore RF
Drew SS
Bradley Jr. CF
Workman RHP

 

[Adrian's Dome]

EDIT: I mean best possible lineup given no Shane and no X.

 

[Plympton91]

Wow. Finally a lineup that doesn't feel like the middle of spring training

 

[JMDurron]

And yet, a lineup that hits like they never had any spring training.  
 
At some point, unless we're giving Farrell credit for psyching the players out with his over-managing with the baserunning, it looks like this season has to be chalked up to good to decent hitters just hitting like shit together for an extended period of time.  How many runs in the past week have scored only because a double play was heroically avoided by a hustling baserunner?  At least 3 I think?  

 

[Max Power]

7th inning, runners at the corners and nobody out with a one run lead. You absolutely need a strikeout there to strand the runner at third. Farrell had both Miller and Badenhop warming, but didn't go to the guy with the 15 K/9. Predictably, the Indians were able to make contact and score the tying run.

The offense shit the bed again, but I felt like that one decision could have helped them squeeze out a win.

 

[MakMan44]

Wasn't that against Yan Gomes? I wouldn't call Miller a LOOGY but I think that's a defendable call.