SBLII: Who's Gonna Win?

[bigq]

Pats win 27-21 and are up 10-7 after a close first half. Eagles get a TD on a long time consuming drive in the 3rd quarter followed by a defensive TD to go up 21-10 to start the 4th. Pats come back with 17 unanswered points in a dominant 4th quarter to get the W. Gronk gets the MVP with 8 catches for 112 yards and 2 TDs.

 

[Soxy]

Just so amazing to see how much the narrrative on the Eagles has shifted over the last month based on one game. Pats >10.

Agreed. They went from everyone thinking they were in a class just above Ten/Buf to sexy underdog pick.

I've been thinking a lot about this, and how that one game seems to have swung the Eagles from being sizable underdogs to trendy upset pick. Eagles were 2.5 pt home dogs to the Falcons and 3 pt home dogs to the Vikings. Now they're only a 4 pt dog against the Patriots, on a neutral field?? That just doesn't make sense to me.

Now, I'm sympathetic to the argument that the sample size with Foles this season is so small that we need to put greater than normal weight on their recent results. That's how Bayesian probability works, really. But still, it certainly seems like there is an awful lot of recency bias going on, across the country, when it comes to the Eagles. One big game against the Vikings and all of the sudden they're world beaters again.

Then this morning, I read this article on Yahoo about how more money is being bet on the Eagles than the Patriots. And it has some interesting quotes.

“I wonder if so many of those bets are people tired of seeing the Patriots win,” said Gill Alexander, who hosts a daily show on Brent Musburger’s Vegas Sports and Information Network (VSiN) in Las Vegas. “I wonder if it’s as simple as that.”

Chris Andrews, the sports book director at the South Point casino in Las Vegas, posted look-ahead lines before the conference championship games for each possible Super Bowl matchup. The Patriots-Eagles matchup had the Patriots favored by 7.5 points. Then the Eagles looked great in an NFC championship win over the Minnesota Vikings, and Andrews knew when he posted the official line that Sunday night for the Super Bowl it had to be less than a touchdown, though still in favor of the Patriots. He debated between 6.5 and 6 points before settling on 6.

“I thought that was a good number,” Andrews said. “And now here we are at 4.”

Another reason for all of the Eagles love to this point at the betting windows is how well Philadelphia played in the NFC championship game. Bettors are influenced by what they saw most recently, and that certainly seems to be the case with all the Eagles action. After all, the Patriots are a machine against the spread. They’ve covered the spread the last 13 times they’ve been favored by seven or fewer points, according to OddsShark. The Patriots have covered the spread in 10 of their last 12 games and 11 of their last 15, OddsShark said, which is amazing because they’ve been the NFL’s premier team for years and betting lines usually reflect that.

But recency bias has a strong influence, and the last thing fans saw was a huge Eagles win over Minnesota.

“I thought it was recency bias to open it at 6,” Alexander said of the opening line. “We saw Tom Brady struggle a bit against Jacksonville (in the AFC championship game) and we saw Nick Foles became Johnny Unitas against Minnesota. It’s totally recency bias. It’s amazing. How many times do you have to see this movie?”

Alexander said he took the Patriots in last year’s Super Bowl, and will be taking them again this year.

“I’ll happily take Tom Brady over Nick Foles on a neutral field,” Alexander said.

I'm more confident about the Patriots going into this game than I was last year against the Falcons. Of course, I also thought the Pats would easily win over Jacksonville and that Minny would win against the Eagles. So what do I know.

 

[tims4wins]

Thanks Soxy. Good stuff. Makes me feel better

 

[Saints Rest]

Exactly. On what is supposedly a super smart sports message board I’ve never seen so many people say some variation of “If the Pats play against the Eagles like they did against the Jags and the Eagles play like they did against the Vikings then we are in trouble”

That’s not analysis that’s what a 10 year old says.

Edit: Can Eagles win? Absolutely. But beating Case Keenum isn’t the same as beating Tom Brady.

If the Pats play against the Eagles like they did against the Titans and the Eagles play like they did against the Falcons then the Eagles are in trouble.

 

[BigSoxFan]

It’s a prediction not what we might think as most likely, if that makes sense. 9 of 10 games might be close, but on any given day one team can put it all together.

And based on all the picks I keep hearing, the Eagles are so underrated they’re overrated.

As I said earlier in the thread, I hope to be dining on a log of Rocco’s shit Sunday night. I see a Pats 10+ point win as a possibility but it would require turnovers.

And this team just doesn’t force turnovers...

 

[SMU_Sox]

Hey Soxy, the VSiN guys have a ton of podcasts up talking about it. Something like 80-90% of the money so far is all Eagles.

 

[DJnVa]

As I said earlier in the thread, I hope to be dining on a log of Rocco’s shit Sunday night. I see a Pats 10+ point win as a possibility but it would require turnovers.

And this team just doesn’t force turnovers...

Granted. But in a one game sample they certainly can.

Everyone understands what you’re saying—you’re taking the most likely outcome, some of us aren’t EVEN THOUGH WE KNOW IT’S NOT AS LIKELY. That’s all.

 

[Red Averages]

This is why week 2 is the easiest week on NFL betting - the public hammers whatever happened in week 1 while the smart money fades it. Same thing happening here.

 

[bankshot1]

Is Pats money coming in now, it looks like the "4" line is gone, and the line is 4 1/2

 

[dynomite]

Hey Soxy, the VSiN guys have a ton of podcasts up talking about it. Something like 80-90% of the money so far is all Eagles.

Sounds a little like SB 50, when the early money was all Panthers.

Similarly, the Panthers had that enormous win in the NFCCG (49-15) while the Broncos survived the AFCCG by the skin of their teeth and Brady not seeing Gronk on the 2-point conversion.

On Saturday, the Panthers were consensus 5.5-point favorites. They had opened as low as 3.5 favorites and attracted the bulk of the early money -- as much as 90 percent at some Nevada sportsbooks.

http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/14727630/super-bowl-50-late-money-denver-broncos-not-carolina-panthers

All the late money came in on the Broncos, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the same here.

Tom Brady only giving 4 points on a neutral field against Nick Foles is objectively a pretty remarkable opportunity.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Some of this may have to do with how close Patriots Super Bowls have all been in the Brady Belichick era.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Cooks
Amendola
Hogan
Dorsett

You’re not going into a SB with 3 WRs and Britt ain’t playing so Dorsett seems like a lock to me.

Probably that’s right, though getting down to 46 will be tougher this week than maybe it has been all year with three running backs and Slater in a wide receiver depth chart spot and everyone practicing. I expect that Britt, Gillislee, Hollister, Reedy and Harris are going to be inactive but the last two spots are tough unless I’m not thinking of someone. Bademosi is a good guess but the seventh spot is going to be a tough call.

 

[tims4wins]

Branch will likely be inactive. and Croston makes 7 without deactivating Bademosi

 

[Saints Rest]

I wonder if Hollister May suit up while Bademosi sits. Hollister plays a lot of ST while giving something extra as a 3rd TE.

 

[RedOctober3829]

30-20 Pats. Pats have one of those games where the game is within a score most of the game but it never really feels like the game is in the balance. Brady carves up the Eagles defense who can't stop the RBs in the passing game as they focus all their attention on doubling Gronkowski. Hogan has his best game of the playoffs. Defensively, Foles makes some plays on RPO's but they bog down on their side of the field and Pats D forces FG's.

 

[Brand Name]

I wonder if Hollister May suit up while Bademosi sits. Hollister plays a lot of ST while giving something extra as a 3rd TE.

I genuinely want to see a few looks in 13, to use the Dallas pin-pull they consistently and effectively used to succeed with Morris in Week 11 against their 4-3 base D.

Granted, they didn't use it much, only 32 snaps/2.7 percent all year, but there's certainly some evidence to suggest there are prior reps with it.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

Eagles up 17-14 at the half.

Pats pull off the victory 28-24.

 

[DukeSox]

10-3 Pats after the first quarter and they pull away from there. Second half announcers spend talking about Brady as the clear GOAT with no room for any Manning or Montana in the discussion.

 

[brandonchristensen]

My only hope is that if the Pats get the ball first and don't score on the first drive, I don't start whining about the game.

 

[BaseballJones]

Exactly. On what is supposedly a super smart sports message board I’ve never seen so many people say some variation of “If the Pats play against the Eagles like they did against the Jags and the Eagles play like they did against the Vikings then we are in trouble”

That’s not analysis that’s what a 10 year old says.

Edit: Can Eagles win? Absolutely. But beating Case Keenum isn’t the same as beating Tom Brady.

Beating Case Keenum at HOME is not the same thing as beating Tom Brady in a Super Bowl.

Not that it can't be done, but yeah that's pretty weak stuff.

 

[pseudo_canadian]

My only hope is that if the Pats get the ball first and don't score on the first drive, I don't start whining about the game.

That will definitely be me, as much as I hate to admit it.

 

[BigSoxFan]

That will definitely be me, as much as I hate to admit it.

No, it won’t because Pats are scoring a TD on their first drive.

 

[brandonchristensen]

If the Pats could break this ridiculous "no scoring in the first quarter" streak, I would be so happy.

I want the Pats to win the toss, defer, and roll a 3 and out. Then do a 29-minute drive that ends in a TD. Take the ball at half, and then run a 30 minute drive ending with another TD.

14-0 Pats.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

10-3 Pats after the first quarter and they pull away from there. Second half announcers spend talking about Brady as the clear GOAT with no room for any Manning or Montana in the discussion.

He's already there, if this scenario plays out (and hopefully it does, even if I'm skeptical) I think we start getting the rare GOAT to GOAT comparisons: is Tom better than Jordan?

 

[dcmissle]

If the Pats could break this ridiculous "no scoring in the first quarter" streak, I would be so happy.

I want the Pats to win the toss, defer, and roll a 3 and out. Then do a 29-minute drive that ends in a TD. Take the ball at half, and then run a 30 minute drive ending with another TD.

14-0 Pats.

I want us to play aggressively because that's the way the Eagles likely will play, and rightly so. Pederson is naturally aggressive, and on top of that this is a "house money" SB for them.

I don't think we'll have many "it's third-and four at the 50, good let's stop them" moments. Uh-uh. They will not make it that easy. It's going to be uncomfortable. I fully expect them to go 4th and short from the 50 in all day, and then 4th and medium depending on the situation as the game wears on. I don't think the correct response to that is a careful, tactical, Jax sort of game. We should at least match their willingness to put it all on the line.

Relatedly, do not go back to the "we need two scores to even this up" well, certainly not in the second half. We survived Atl, we survived Jax, eventually good fortune runs out. If the Eagles get up by 2 or more scores, they will just go for the kill shot.

Disclosure: I have the Pats by 4 to 6 in our poll, but this assumes we'll come with the correct approach.

 

[brandonchristensen]

So you disagree with the Pats having a 59-1 time of possession advantage?

 

[jcaz]

I've been thinking about how this game will go for the last two weeks and I think I finally landed on what I think (hope) will be the most likely outcome. I'm hoping for a clean Pats game - no picks, no fumbles - and solid execution by the offense in the first half. If that happens, then I think the Pats get ahead by two scores and never look back. I think it's 17-6 at the half, with a 31-20 final.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

The only thing that concerns me this week is Josh McDaniels coming out with another predictable, weak game plan on the offensive side of the ball, and forgetting about his running and screen game. Against the Jags, that's exactly what he did, and the result was a 14-3 deficit. In the 2nd half, they got more unpredictable, sprinkled in screens, trick plays, and the no-huddle, and they put the Jags defense on their heels and we all know what happened.

I want to see that second half game plan in the first half this week. Not the other way around.

 

[BaseballJones]

I think if the Pats play a clean game, they'll handle Philly by plenty. But I don't think they'll play a clean game. Their last 3 Super Bowls, they've had 1, 2, and 2 turnovers. They've lost the turnover battle in each of those games (1-0, 2-1, and 2-1).

I think they'll make a mistake. Maybe even a really big one. The kind of mistake that gives Philly hope or threatens to bury the Patriots. The good news is that the last two Super Bowls, they've had 2 turnovers in each game and still managed to win.

Close game, tight til the end. Foles makes some plays that has this board melting down with how awful the defense is. But the Patriots don't let Philly pull away, take the lead in the fourth quarter, and hold on for the win. Kind of like how they've been doing it lately.

 

[Traut]

Patriots 35-10

 

[uk_sox_fan]

At this point, while the Eagles certainly can win this game, every piece of information available says they probably won't. DVOA has the Pats as the better team (and 58% to win), FPI has the Pats as the better team, ELO has the Pats as the better team (and also 58% to win), the Vegas line is still sitting around Pats -4.5, ESPN survey 5 coaches who faced the teams this year who would win and all 5 picked the Pats, etc., and most of the statistical systems don't even fully account for Wentz's injury.

Other than gut feelings or reverse jinxes, is there a reason to think that the Eagles will win this game (as opposed to the inarguable fact that they are capable and it would happen at least, say 1 out of 5 hypothetical times)?

So you’re using evidence that statistical models predict a 58% chance of victory to say they have an 80% chance?

That said (or asked), I personally believe New England will win in a blow out. Not because of statistics but because of the subjective feeling that the Eagles have overachieved expectations so much and the Pats have the confidence of having been there twice in the past 3 years.

NE 38-10

 

[NortheasternPJ]

The only thing that concerns me this week is Josh McDaniels coming out with another predictable, weak game plan on the offensive side of the ball, and forgetting about his running and screen game. Against the Jags, that's exactly what he did, and the result was a 14-3 deficit. In the 2nd half, they got more unpredictable, sprinkled in screens, trick plays, and the no-huddle, and they put the Jags defense on their heels and we all know what happened.

I want to see that second half game plan in the first half this week. Not the other way around.

From your keyboard to Joshs ears. First half game plans have been very frustrating at times. If they can actually score 10 -14 points in the first half this one should be over.

 

[luckiestman]

My gut says Phi and I’m not sure why. The only thing I can think of is watching them and watching the Pats a lot, the Iggles just seem to play way faster.

I think (brain not gut) the Pats have many favorable match ups.

I’m interested in seeing what happens.

 

[simplyeric]

I want to see that second half game plan in the first half this week. Not the other way around.

So you’re looking for a flea-flicker on their first possession?
That always seems to bite us in the end.

 

[Ale Xander]

I think if the Pats play a clean game, they'll handle Philly by plenty. But I don't think they'll play a clean game. Their last 3 Super Bowls, they've had 1, 2, and 2 turnovers. They've lost the turnover battle in each of those games (1-0, 2-1, and 2-1).
.

So you're saying the Pats are due for a zero turnover game, huh?

 

[Manuel Aristides]

All I know for sure is that, with Brady sitting on 68 career postseason TD, his first one tonight is going to Gronk.

27-20, Pats.

 

[Super Nomario]

The only thing that concerns me this week is Josh McDaniels coming out with another predictable, weak game plan on the offensive side of the ball, and forgetting about his running and screen game. Against the Jags, that's exactly what he did, and the result was a 14-3 deficit. In the 2nd half, they got more unpredictable, sprinkled in screens, trick plays, and the no-huddle, and they put the Jags defense on their heels and we all know what happened.

I want to see that second half game plan in the first half this week. Not the other way around.

I thought the first-half gameplan was fine, featuring a lot of screens and short passes to the backs (6 targets, 4 catches for 8 yards) and a reasonable number of runs (6 carries for 13 yards by RB); they just couldn't break tackles and Jacksonville completely shut down yards after catch and yards after contact. I'm fine with a similar plan tonight, though hopefully they adjust sooner if Philadelphia is tackling as well as the Jags.

 

[patoaflac]

So you’re using evidence that statistical models predict a 58% chance of victory to say they have an 80% chance?

If we take the law of probability into account, the Patriots are due for a blowout. Since the XX were they were blown out by the Bears and the XXI when they lost to the Packers, the remaining SB´s have been very close. The probability of this occurring again is very low (that´s what my gut says). And again, the nation´s tears will be enormous because of today´s blowout.

 

[redsoxcentury]

Pats 23-19

 

[dirtynine]

Pats will make a mistake early on D. They will be down by 10 at some point. They will win by 5-8. They will score in the 30s, Eagles in the 20s.

 

[wiffleballhero]

Guess we all got this wrong.

Maybe had we known that BB was going to fuck the team to teach Butler a lesson and that the rest of the D could not make a stop all night we might have all be a little closer on the over/under!

 

[luckiestman]

My gut says Phi and I’m not sure why. The only thing I can think of is watching them and watching the Pats a lot, the Iggles just seem to play way faster.

I think (brain not gut) the Pats have many favorable match ups.

I’m interested in seeing what happens.

Always go with your gut, brains are over rated.

 

[nattysez]

Guess we all got this wrong.

Maybe had we known that BB was going to fuck the team to teach Butler a lesson and that the rest of the D could not make a stop all night we might have all be a little closer on the over/under!

Not all of us. Though I wish I HAD gotten it wrong.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Guess we all got this wrong.

Maybe had we known that BB was going to fuck the team to teach Butler a lesson and that the rest of the D could not make a stop all night we might have all be a little closer on the over/under!

All the blowout predictions were complete wishful thinking. Not with this defense. Not against that team that was peaking at the right time.

 

[wiffleballhero]

I know I had it wrong. I though it was going to be a defensive struggle. A little off for the single biggest total passing game in NFL history.

nice work Wiffleballhero!

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

nattysez was the only one to get this right. I hope he had money on it!

 

[Koufax]

I picked the Eagles. Had the Pats not botched the field goal, I'd have been right on the money.